Nuclear Disasters

Kelly T. Sanders, Ph.D.

September 24, 2020

Schedule
Thursday, September 24th Tuesday, September 22nd
Due today: Due today:
• Nothing (But nuclear quiz due Friday) • Homework 5
In-class: Nuclear I In-class: Nuclear II
• Research Project Abstract due Oct 2 • News of the Day
• News of the Day • Discussion of Homework 5
• Nuclear Disasters Assigned
• Assign Homework 5
• Watch Renewables Lecture
Assigned
• Homework 5 due Tuesday by 3:30pm

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• Due Tuesday, October 2 at
11:59pm PDT via “Research
Video Abstract” Dropbox Folder
(on course website)
• One abstract should be
submitted per person (or pair for
those working with partners)
• Worth 5% of total written
project grade
Specifications:
• Include all names on submission
• Include your project title
• Include word count after title
and authors [must be 250 words
or less not including citations,
title or authors]
• At least three full citations of
anticipated data sources
• Don’t use too much jargon. The
topic should be able to be
understood by non-experts.
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• Motivation: Why is the topic or problem important? What do you
hope to learn from doing this analysis?
• Problem statement: You should clearly state the problem or
question that you are trying to address. What is the scope of your
analysis (e.g. are you addressing a specific region or specific time
period?) What are your hypotheses about outcomes? What do you
expect to learn?
• General Approach: It is assumed that you will not know exactly
how you will execute your analysis, but give me some idea of how
you might address your problem. Some ideas (not comprehensive):
o Compare and contrast with extensive literature review
o Detailed review or policy analysis with extensive literature
review
o Statistical approach (e.g. regression) to analyze data (<- tell me
what data)
o Geospatial Analysis with GIS
o Optimization Model
o Life cycle assessment
o Creating a metric or methodology to analyze data
o …
• Challenges: What do you anticipate to be your biggest data
challenges?
• Relevant data sources: You should identify at least 3 sources of data
or literature that might help you do your analysis. Include full
citations for each!
o Are all of your data published?
o Will you have to collect any data yourself?
3
News of the Day • Newsom directed California’s
regulators to develop a plan that
would require automakers to sell
steadily more zero-emissions
passenger vehicles in the state,
such as battery-powered or
hydrogen-powered cars and pickup
trucks, until they make up 100
percent of new auto sales in just 15
years.
• Would not prevent Californians from
owning cars with internal
combustion engines past 2035 or
selling them on the used-vehicle
market.
• Sets a goal for all heavy-duty trucks
on the road in California to be zero
emissions by 2045
• Last year, only 8 percent of the
nearly two million passenger
vehicles sold statewide were
battery-electric or plug-in hybrid
vehicles.

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News of the Day
• New Plaid powertrain for the Model S (520
miles, get from 0-60 mph in under two
seconds, and a top speed of 200 mph)
• Big Focus: Battery Innovations
– Announces new “tabless” in-house battery
cells (Tesla is removing the tab that connects
the cell and what it’s powering), which will
make batteries 6X more powerful and
increase range by 16%.
– Move towards eliminating cobalt in its
batteries since it is often mined under
conditions that violate human rights &
removing will make cars cheaper
– Anew cathode plant to streamline its battery
production (will make cathodes 76% cheaper,
and produce zero wastewater)
• Musk’s new goal for Tesla: a $25,000 EV

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News of the Day

• China’s goal to peak its emissions

of greenhouse gases “before
2030,” and achieve carbon
neutrality before 2060,
• Although more than 60 other
countries have pledged carbon
neutrality by 2050, those countries
are small compared to China, (~28
percent of the world’s annual
emissions).
• Neutrality by 2050: a consensus
deadline that scientists believe
must be met to have a reasonable
chance of averting the worst
climate catastrophe

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 Nuclear Disasters

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There are two major things we worry about in a
nuclear power plant
• Principle mechanisms for barrier failure
– Loss of reactivity control (control of the fission process)
– Loss of cooling of the reactor core

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The containment structure is critical for
protecting the plant
• During normal
operation,
radionuclides are
prevented from
escaping to the
environment by
physical barriers
• Emergency
cooling systems
are in place to
protect barriers

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What is a “melt-down?
• Problem 1: Even when a nuclear power plant shuts down
(i.e. fission stops), it continues to produce heat due to the
energy released as fission products decay
– If the cooling water is lost to the core after the fission
process is stopped, the residual energy will cause the core
to overheat, disintegrate and “melt-down”
• Problem 2: Residual water vapor will react with zirconium
fuel cladding and prompt a rapid exothermic reaction
• Problem 3: At the same time, hydrogen will be produced
(from residual water vapor + Zirconium reaction) and collect
in the core, creating the potential for an explosion if it leaks
to any part of the building that has oxygen
• Problem 4: If core damages containment structure fission
products can be released to the environment (e.g. iodine or
cesium isotopes; radioactive noble gases)

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Three civilian nuclear power plant accidents
stand out in people’s minds
• Three Mile Island Accident 1979
• Chernobyl Accident 1986
• Fukushima Daiichi Accident 2011

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I grew up within miles of Three Mile Island

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Three Mile Island: Harrisburg PA, 1979
• A pressurized water reactor:
– Unit #2: 2700 MW surrounded by a dry containment of
reinforced concrete
• An operational disturbance created a slight pressure in the
reactor system, causing a relief valve on top of the
pressurizer to open and become stuck
• Caused a continuous loss of steam from the reactor
• Because of faulty instrumentations, the operators were not
notified
• The Core of Unit #2 boiled dry and overheated, causing a
partial meltdown
• Hydrogen was produced and released through the open
valve, causing a Hydrogen burn, and some very small
amounts of radioactive substances were released before
the stuck valve was closed
• In total:
– about 45% of the core melted
– there were very little radiological and fission products
released, posing negligible risk to community and employees
– still affects public sentiment about nuclear energy, even today

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Chernobyl 1986: 120 km north of Kiev, Ukraine
• Unit 4: Graphite-moderated channel-type
boiling water reactor of Soviet design
• During a test program, operators brought the
reactor into an unstable state, disabling
safety systems
• When an operator tried to shut down the
reactor, the fission reactions spiked causing
an explosion; as more hydrogen was
created, more explosions occurred
• Escaping steam and gases over-pressured
the core cavity, totally destroying the reactor;
fuel and fuel fragments released to air
• Today a provisional shelter still covers the
damaged reactor to prevent more release
• Most of this accident was caused by severe
deficiencies in design and inadequate safety
standards

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Chernobyl 1986: 120 km north of Kiev, Ukraine
• Impacts:
– Severe ground contamination due to radioactive
release, in the vicinity
– Winds carried radioactive elements all over Europe,
causing ground contamination
– Two members of the staff were killed directly
– 134 emergency workers died later that year due to
acute radiation syndrome
– Between 1987-2004: 19 more people died of
causes linked back to radiation released during the
accident
– In all about 200,000 people received “significant”
radiation exposure (i.e. more than 20 millisievert);
• As of 2005, 7000 cases of thyroid cancers
have been diagnosed in affected population
(17 deaths; likely more now)
• In total experts estimate ~ 100,000+ fatal
cancers in the affected population
– The most contaminated areas will probably not be
habitable for ~ 100 years (agricultural land, timber
land, populations have been removed from area)

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Fukushima 2011: East Coast of Japan
• March 11: Magnitude 9.0 earthquake occurs
(200km NW of Fukushima)
• When reactors were shut-down a spike in
fission reactions occurred
• Emergency diesel generators started up to
provide essential cooling, as power to the
plant’s cooling systems was lost
• ~1 hour after earthquake, tsunami hit and
temporarily inundates station 14m above
sea level (plant built to withstand waves of
5.7 m)
– Reactor and turbines are flooded with salt
water, causing failure of emergency diesel
generators (one survives)
• Over the next few days, continues to build
heat, hydrogen and explosions
• Finally, by end of 2011, situation stabilized
but still some issues with leaking water

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 Fukushima 2011: East Coast of Japan
• Impacts:
– Caused large ground contamination (1800 sq
kilometers)
– Radioactive plume reached 40 km NW of plant
– Food and seafood is still being monitored for radiation
– No cases of acute radiation syndrome have occurred,
but risk of exposure remains
– 167 workers were exposed to >100 millisieverts during
clean up, but this will increase as clean up continues
– Biggest impacts so far are stressed induced
– Significant increases in cancer rates are not expected
(possibly higher thyroid cancer rates in children)
– In total, 150,000 people have been evacuated from
contaminated zones (radius of 20km from plant)
– 60 people died due to complications with evacuation
• The Japanese tsunami reached heights of up to 133
feet and inundated up to six miles inland
– 16,000 dead
– 6,000 injured
– more than 3,000 missing.

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August 11, 2015: Japan restarts first
nuclear reactor under new safety rules
• Following the disaster at Fukushima in
2011, Japan began a temporary
shutdown of all nuclear power plants as
each reactor entered scheduled
maintenance and refueling outages.
• By September 2013, all 54 reactors in
Japan's nuclear fleet were shut down.
• On August 11, Kyushu Electric Power
Company's 846 megawatt (MW) Sendai
Nuclear Power Station Unit 1 became
the first reactor to restart after nearly two
years with no generation from nuclear
power plants in Japan.

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Radiation Risks For Nuclear Power Are
Low…Unless There’s An Accident

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Despite large risks, nuclear has had less deaths
associated with it than other forms of energy
Energy Source Mortality Rates
(Deaths per year per TWh)
Coal - world average 161

Coal - China 278

Coal - USA 15

Oil 36

Natural Gas 4

Biofuel/Biomass 12

Peat 12

Solar/rooftop -0.44 - 0.83

Wind 0.15

Hydro - world 0.10

Hydro - world* 1.4 Source:

Willem Post
Nuclear 0.04

* Includes the 170,000 deaths from the failure of the Banquao

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Reservoir Dam in China in 1975 20
Videos shown in class

• 60 minutes I:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bSNn7fdaPVs&list=L
LvZVgezGYLhJdJlYWFjqHOg&index=338
• 60 minutes II:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YpxtMBOiD6A
• TMI: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eGI7VymjSho
• Chernobyl:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5ptI6Pi3GA
• Fukushima:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BdbitRlbLDc

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 Kelly T. Sanders
Assistant Professor
Sonny Astani Department of Civil and
Environmental Engineering
ktsanders@usc.edu