Radiative Forcing

Do we have global warming?

Reasons

Main Radiative Forcing, Natural and anthropogenic

Climate sensitivity parameter

 What can create imbalance?

Any changes in , 𝛼, 𝑆0

1/ 4
 (1 − A) S0   2 
1/ 4

TE =    
 4   (2 −  ) 

1. Solar “constant” (changing over different time scales, and depends on some variables
a1, a2….)

2. Albedo (depends on some variables (b1,b2,b3….), clouds, aerosols, ice….), also changing

3. , changing and depends on many contributors (different gases….), c1, c2, c3….
 How to find the answer to the question if we have global warming?

Identify all variables Quantify corresponding

(agents, IPCC) radiative forcing, Wt/m2
Fa1
a1
Fa2
a2
Fa3
a3
..
..

Fb1 Net positive: warming

b1
 Fb2
 b2
F b3 Net negative: cooling
 b3
..
..

 Fc1
 c1
F c2
 c2
 Fc3
 c3
 Fc4
 c4
..
..

Larger radiative forcing  larger effect on temperature

Example 1: (not realistic, but to show the concept)
Let us assume atmosphere transparent to all radiation (no GH gases, no albedo), and all in balance: 𝐹𝑖𝑛 = 𝐹𝑜𝑢𝑡 so (U, T… constants)

S0
4
S0
E+A boundary: = TE4 𝑅𝐹 = 𝐹𝑖𝑛 −𝐹𝑜𝑢𝑡 =0
4

TE4
TE

Let us assume something changed (say ice coverage): say, A=0.1

𝑆0 𝑆0 𝑆0
S0
A
S0
𝑅𝐹 = 𝐹𝑖𝑛 −𝐹𝑜𝑢𝑡 = - 𝐴 + 𝜎𝑇𝐸4 =- 𝐴
4 4 4 4 4

=-34 Wt/m2 Forcing is negative

TE4
TE
Temperature forced to decrease to establish
new balance, after waiting some time:

S0 So
= TE + A
'4

4 4
Examples 2: (more realistic)
Let us assume atmosphere transparent to all radiation and albedo=0, and all in balance: 𝐹𝑖𝑛 = 𝐹𝑜𝑢𝑡 so (U, T… constants)

𝑆0
1−𝐴
4
𝑆0
E+A boundary: = 1 −  𝜎𝑇𝐸4 + 𝜎𝑇𝐴4
4

Let us assume something changed (say ice coverage): say, A

𝑆0 𝑆0
𝑅𝐹 = 𝐹𝑖𝑛 −𝐹𝑜𝑢𝑡 = (1 − 𝐴 ) - 1 −  𝜎𝑇𝐸4 + 𝜎𝑇𝐴4 =- 𝐴
4 4

Forcing is negative

Temperature forced to decrease to establish (new) balance with

low temperature TE

Increasing albedo creates negative RF

 EVIDENCE OF AEROSOL EFFECTS ON CLIMATE:
Temperature decrease following large volcanic eruptions

+0.2
Temperature Change (oC) Observations

0 NASA/GISS general
circulation model
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6

1991 1992 1993 1994

Mt. Pinatubo eruption

Examples 3:
Let us assume atmosphere transparent to all radiation, albedo=A, emissivity , and all in balance: 𝐹𝑖𝑛 = 𝐹𝑜𝑢𝑡

𝑆0
1−𝐴
4
𝑆0
E+A boundary: 1 − 𝐴 = 1 −  𝜎𝑇𝐸4 + 𝜎𝑇𝐴4
4

Let us assume something changed (concentration of GH gases increased): 1>

𝑆0
𝑅𝐹 = 𝐹𝑖𝑛 −𝐹𝑜𝑢𝑡 = (1 − 𝐴 ) - 1 − 1 𝜎𝑇𝐸4 + 1𝜎𝑇𝐴4 =
4

1 −  𝜎𝑇𝐸4 + 𝜎𝑇𝐴4 - 1 − 1 𝜎𝑇𝐸4 − 1𝜎𝑇𝐴4 =

(1-)𝜎𝑇𝐸4 + (-1) 𝜎𝑇𝐴4 = (1-)𝜎 (𝑇𝐸4 − 𝑇𝐴4 )>0

Forcing is positive

Temperature forced to increase to establish (new) balance withhigher temperature TE

Temperature is increasing when  increasing

 Greenhouse gases

For the last 400000 years

the concentration of CO2 had not exceeded 280 ppm
the concentration of CH4 had not exceeded 700 ppb
 Currently:

280 ppm

700 ppb

No human activities Human activities

Examples 4, 5: Solar variability (A4, A5)
 1/ 4
 (1 − A) S0   2 
1/ 4

TE =    
 4   ( 2 −  ) 

Any changes in , 𝛼, 𝑆0 creates:

𝑅𝐹 = 𝐹𝑖𝑛 −𝐹𝑜𝑢𝑡

Can calculate by using our model, but the changes are controlled by many agents (a1, a2…. b1, b2…. c1, c2…) and
relationships could be very difficult to quantify (result of extensive research efforts of IPCC community)
Identify all variables Quantify corresponding
(agents, IPCC) radiative forcing, Wt/m2
Fa1
a1
Fa2
a2
Fa3
a3
..
..

Fb1 Net positive: warming

b1
 Fb2
 b2
F b3 Net negative: cooling
 b3
..
..

 Fc1
 c1
F c2
 c2
 Fc3
 c3
 Fc4
 c4
..
..
 Currently:

280 ppm

700 ppb

No human activities Human activities

Note ranges!
Total net Radiative Frcing (1750-2005) is positive (+ 1.6 Wt/m2)=> global warming

Global Mean Temperature

(140 year record)

T = RF climate sensitivity parameter

 Major Types of Radiative Forcing

Changes in …

• Greenhouse Gases
• Aerosols (particles)
• Surface albedo
• Solar variability
• Volcanic activity

The major ones are greenhouse gases and aerosols.

 Surface Effects

• Black Carbon on Snow/Ice

• Land-Use Changes
• Anthropogenic Water Vapor Release
• Anthropogenic Energy Release
• CO2 Influence on Plant Physiology
Albedo Differences Land Use Changes

Forest < Cropland

Snow-covered forest <
Snow-covered cropland
 EVIDENCE OF AEROSOL EFFECTS ON CLIMATE:
Temperature decrease following large volcanic eruptions

+0.2
Temperature Change (oC) Observations

0 NASA/GISS general
circulation model
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6

1991 1992 1993 1994

Mt. Pinatubo eruption

 Atmospheric aerosols
• Atmospheric aerosols are small particles with sizes ranging
from ~10nm to ~10μm.

• They may be produced by both natural and anthropogenic

processes (or a combination).
• Aerosols are very efficient light scatterers, and will reflect
(some) sunlight back to space.

• Increasing levels of aerosols provide a negative forcing

(cooling the surface). This is known as the aerosol direct
effect.

• There are some indirect effects. At the heart of every cloud

droplet is an aerosol particle, which is essential for it’s startup.
 AEROSOL “INDIRECT EFFECT” FROM CLOUD CHANGES

Clouds form by condensation on preexisting aerosol particles

clean cloud (few particles): polluted cloud (many particles):

large cloud droplets small cloud droplets
• low albedo • high albedo
• efficient precipitation • suppressed precipitation
 Direct and indirect effects

cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC)

liquid water content (LWC)

EVIDENCE OF INDIRECT EFFECT: SHIP TRACKS

from D. Rosenfeld
 SATELLITE IMAGES OF SHIP TRACKS

NASA, 2002
Atlantic, France, Spain

AVHRR, 27. Sept. 1987, 22:45 GMT

US-west coast
 • But some particles, mainly soot, are efficient absorbers.

SCATTERING vs. ABSORBING AEROSOLS

Scattering sulfate and organic aerosol Partly absorbing dust aerosol
over Massachusetts downwind of Sahara

Absorbing aerosols (black carbon, dust) warm the climate by absorbing solar
radiation