Climate Gualdi 2

Climate and Global Changes in the Age
of Sustainable Development
2
The Earth’s climate
system and its dynamics
Silvio Gualdi
Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici,
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia
Climate and Global Changes in the Age of

Sustainable Development,
Polytechnic University of Milan
10th of October 2022
Outline
Lecture 1: the main basic feature of Earth’s climate
The main basic characteristics of the of the Earth’s climate are illustrated, discussing the most
important aspects such as the global energy balance, the effects related to the land–sea
contrast or those associated with the seasonal cycle. Besides, the main modes of climate
variability are introduced, considering the monsoon circulations, the interannual variability
associated with the El Niño phenomenon and the decadal oscillations of Pacific and Atlantic.
Lecture 2: The Earth’s climate system and its dynamics

The fundamental aspects of the dynamics of the Earth’s climate are illustrated and discussed,
starting from the development of a simple radiative balance model, which is then progressively
improved introducing convection (radiative-convective balance model), up to a quick derivation
of the primitive equations for the atmosphere. Some example of simple formulations of the
primitive equations are then discussed (e.g. the shallow-water equations). Finally, the main basic
modes of climate variability (e.g. Madden–Julian Oscillation, El Niño/Southern Oscillation) are
presented.
Lecture 3: Modelling the climate system

The basic principles concerning the discretization and numerical solution of the primitive
equations are illustrated. The main concepts underpinning the development of climate models
and their use are discussed. The concept of deterministic chaos is then introduced discussing the
Lorenz idealised system and the problem of predicting the evolution of the Earth’s climate.
Predictability of the first kind and predictability of the second kind. Climate predictions and
climate change projections are discussed.
Part 2 - The Earth’s climate system and its dynamics
Zonal average of meant temperature
Zonal average of mean zonal wind

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics

Geophysical fluid dynamics examines the
dynamics of motion of fluids on the Earth
(or other planets) on the basis of two
fundamental physical features:
• stratification (layering) and
• rotation of the fluid due to the
planetary rotation.
Lapse _rate = dT/dz
Lapse rate varies in

latitude and season
Radiative Equilibrium
• Equilibrium state of atmosphere and surface in

the absence of non-radiative enthalpy fluxes
• Radiative heating (cooling) drives actual state

toward state of radiative equilibrium
Energy balance of the earth

First law of thermodynamics
dQ = dU - dW for a closed system
Incoming solar
Outgoing radiative energy
Incoming solar radiation = outgoing planetary radiation

Flux, Flux density, solar constant

26
Sun’s energy output Lo = 3.9 · 10 W
Assume radiative flux is spherically uniform
d definition:
flux density (Sd) = energy per unit area
so:
Lo = flux density x area of sphere = Sd · 4 π d2
and
S d = L 0 / 4 π d2
In case of the Earth-Sun distance: d = 1.5 · 1011 m and

Flux density at Earth-Sun distance (Solar constant, So) = Lo / 4 π d2 = 1367 W/m2
Balckbody Radiation
Definition: a blackbody is a hypothetical body consisting of a sufficient number
of molecules absorbing and emitting electromagnetic radiation over all
frequencies so that:
1. All incident radiation is completely absorbed
2. In all wavelength bands and in all directions the maximum possible

emission is realized
Stefan-Boltzmann Law for blackbody radiation:
EBB = s T4 s = Stefan-Boltzmann constant

= 5.67 x 10-8 Wm-2K-4
Emission Temperature
Definition: Emission temperature is the blackbody temperature required
so that Solar radiation absorbed = planetary radiation emitted
Shadow Area = π R2
Absorbed solar radiation = So (1-ap) p R2

Definition: Albedo (ap) = fraction of solar radiation reflected ap ~ 0.3 (30%)
Emitted terrestrial radiation = s Te4 4 p R2

Terrestrial Radiation
Effective emission temperature:
In absence of an atmosphere Te = Ts
Simple Greenhouse Model (highly reduced model)

A ‘slab’ atmosphere with the properties:
i) Lets SW through (transparent)
ii) But blackbody for terrestrial radiation ! Opaque to terrestrial radiation
Top of Atmosphere (TOA) balance:
Atmospheric balance:
Surface balance:
Radiative Equilibrium
Te = 255 K
Diagram of the energy fluxes for a planet with an atmosphere that

is transparent for solar radiation but opaque to terrestrial radiation.
Simple Greenhouse Model (highly reduced model)

Extended Layer Model
A multilayer Greenhouse Model
S0
(1 − αp)
4
4
σ TLN
LN
4
σ TLN
4
σ TL2 Atm
L2
4
4
σ TL2
σ TL1
4
L1
4
σ Ts σ TL1
Surf.
A multilayer Greenhouse Model

S0 4 4
TOA: (1 − αp) =σ Te = σ TLN
4
4 4 4
Middle Layer : 2σ Tn = σ Tn-1 + σ Tn+1
Surface:
4 4 S0 4 4
σ TS = σ T1 + (1 − αp) = σ T1 + σ Te
4
4 4
TS = (N+1) Te
Simple Greenhouse Model

(highly reduced/idealised model)
• Surface temperature too large

because:
• Real atmosphere is not opaque

(not a real blackbody)
A leaky Greenhouse Model

Emissivity (Absorbitivity) ε, defined as the
ratio of energy radiated by an object and ER
ε=
the energy radiated by a blackbody at the EBB
same temperature
S0 (1 − α ) 4
p (1 − ε) σ Ts 4
4 ε σ TA
Atm
4
σ Ts ε σ TA
4
Surf.
A multilayer leaky Greenhouse Model

S0
(1 − αp)
4
4 4
(1 − εN) σ TN-1 εN σ TLN
4
LN
εN σ TLN
4 Atm
ε2 σ TL2
4
L2
4
(1 − ε1) σ Ts ε2 σ TL2 4
ε1 σ TL1
4 4
L1
σ Ts ε1 σ TL1
Surf.
Atmospheric composition
Important for
radiation:
• Water vapor
• CO2
• Ozone
• Methane
• N2O
Full Calculation of radiative equilibrium

Problems with radiative equilibrium solution
• Stratospheric temp. close to observed
BUT
• Too hot at and near the Tropopause
• Too cold at and near the surface
• Lapse rate too large in the Troposphere
Radiative equilibrium is unstable in the troposphere

Missing ingredient: Convection

in atmosphere
• As important as radiation
in transporting enthalpy in
the vertical
• Also controls distribution

in ocean
of water vapor and clouds,
the two most important
constituents in radiative
transfer
Buoyancy
Re–calculate equilibrium assuming that tropospheric

stability is render neutral by convection:
Radiative – Convective Equilibrium
Better, but still

too hot at the
surface and
too cold at the
thropopause
Atmospheric humidity: moist convection

Moisture in the air is generally confined to the lowest few kilometers of the atmosphere
Specific humidity (q) = ratio of the mass of vapor in a certain volume to the total mass of
air and vapor in the same volume

Moist convection transports heat from the
surface (low atmosphere) aloft, redistributing
energy to make the stratification stable.
The energy released in the middle troposphere

by convective events (precipitation of ~10
mm/day) can be larger than 3 × 1012 W
The atmosphere responds to this perturbation

through waves that dissipate the injected
energy
(Image courtesy of University of Illinois)
“During its life cycle, a hurricane of medium size can expend as much energy as
10,000 nuclear bombs!” (NASA)

the
Governing
Equations
Physical principles
The state of the atmosphere/ocean at any time is defined by five key variables:
U = (u, v, w); p and T (six if we include specific humidity in the atmosphere, or salinity in the ocean).
Note that by making use of the equation of state, we can infer ρ from p and T .
To ‘tie’ these variables down we need five independent equations:
1. Conservation of energy ! thermodynamic heat equation, a statement of the

thermodynamic state in which the motion takes place.
2. Conservation of mass ! continuity equation.
3. Conservation of momentum ! three equation of motion for a fluid parcel; three

independent equations in each of the three orthogonal directions x, y and z.
The five equations together with appropriate boundary conditions, are sufficient to
determine the evolution of the fluid.
(Conservation of angular momentum ! vorticity equation)

Conservation of energy
The equation governing the evolution of temperature can be derived from
the first law of thermodynamics applied to a moving parcel of fluid
1st law of Thermodyn. cp dT d(pdα) dQ

− =
dt dt dt
. .
ps k T dΘ Q T dΘ’ dΘ0 Q
Θ=T ( ) = + =
p Θ dt cp Θ0 dt dt cp
R
k=
cp
T ∂Θ’ .
+ V" Θ’ + w ∂Θ0 = Q
Θ0 ∂t ∂z cp
V = (u,v,0)
.
Q is known as the ‘diabatic heating rate’ per unit mass. In the atmosphere, this is
mostly due to latent heating and cooling (from condensation and evaporation of H2O)
and radiative heating and cooling (due to absorption and emission of radiation).
Conservation of mass (of a dry air parcel)
∂ρ dρ Continuity equation
+ ∇"(ρ U) = 0 or + ρ ∇"U = 0
∂t dt
∂Conc.
which has the general form of a physical conservation law: + ∇" (flux) = Source
∂t
Conservation of mass in pressure coordinates

In pressure coordinates, (x, y, p), the elemental fixed “volume” is δx δy δp.
Since z = z (x, y, p), the vertical dimension of the elemental volume (in geometric
coordinates) is:
∂z
δz = ∂p δp and so its mass δM is given by:
δM = ρ δx δy δz = ρ(∂p/∂z)−1 δx δy δp = −1/g δx δy δp
where we have used hydrostatic balance.
Therefore the continuity equation in pressure coordinates becomes:
∂u ∂v ∂ω ∂p
+ + =0 where ω=
∂x ∂y ∂p ∂t
Hence, in the pressure-coordinate version of the continuity equation, there is no term
representing rate of change of density. Much simpler ! one of the reasons why
pressure coordinates are favoured in meteorology
Conservation of momentum inertial (non-rotating) system
Equation of motion inertial (non-rotating) system

We now consider the forces on an elementary V
fluid parcel, of infinitesimal dimensions (δx, δy,
δz) in the three coordinate directions (x, y, z).
Since the mass of the parcel is δM = ρ δx δy δz,

then, Newton’s Law of Motion in the fixed
(inertial ) frame of reference for the parcel is:
ρδV dU = F where V=(u,v,w) is the parcel’s velocity.

dt
The forces acting on an air parcel are:
# Pressure gradient force Fp arising from pressure acting on the air parcel;
# Body force Fb ! gravity;
# Friction Ff for typical atmospheric and oceanic flows, friction is negligible except
close to boundaries where the fluid rubs over the Earth’s surface.

Pressure gradient
∂p
Fx = − δx δy δz
∂x
∂p
Fy = − ∂y δx δy δz
∂p
Fz = − ∂z δx δy δz
The net pressure force is given by the vector:
Fp = (Fx, Fy, Fz) = − (∂p/∂x, ∂p/∂y, ∂p/∂z) δx δy δz
the net force depends only on the

per unit volume Fpres= − ∇p gradient of pressure, ∇p
The Newton’s Second Law in the fixed (inertial ) frame of reference, for
infinitesimal volume of fluid δV and force F acting on a unit volume is:
dV 1 ⌃
= ρ ∇p + g k + Ff
dt
Pressure Gravity Friction

gradient
force
Equation of motion for a rotating fluid

The above equations are an accurate representation of Newton’s laws applied to a fluid
observed from a fixed, inertial, frame of reference.
However, we live on a rotating planet and observe winds and

currents in its rotating frame.
For example the winds shown in the Figure on the right

are not the winds that would be observed by someone looking
at the earth from an inertial reference system.
Rather, they are the winds measured by observers on the

planet rotating with it.
In most applications it is easier and more desirable to work

with the governing equations in a frame rotating with the earth.
To proceed, then, we must write down our governing equations in a rotating frame.
Equation of motion for a fluid in a rotating frame
dV 1 ⌃
= -2Ω x V + ∇p + g k + Ff
dt ρ
Coriolis Friction
force Pressure
Gravity
describes a tendency for gradient
fluid parcels to turn (right in gravitation modified by
the N.H., left in the S.H.) force centrifugal accelerations
when it moves, as a in the rotating frame.
consequence of the rotation
of the reference frame.
Since, by definition, (Ω x U) · U = 0, the Coriolis force is workless: it does no work, but

merely acts to change the flow direction.
This form of the momentum equation is basic to most work in dynamic meteorology.
Primitive Equations
Conservation dV 1 ⌃
= -2Ω x V + ∇p + g k + Ff
of momentum dt ρ
Continuity ∂ρ
+ ∇"(ρ U) = 0
equation ∂t
T ∂Θ’ .
Conservation Θ’ + w ∂Θ0
of energy
+ V" = Q
Θ0 ∂t ∂z cp
V = (u,v,0)
Ideal Gas Law p𝛂 = RT 38

Shallow Water System (Matsuno, 1966)
An idealised
framework to better
understand and
investigate the
dynamics of the
tropical atmosphere
(and ocean)
A wide spectrum of wave solutions

Theoretical Dispersion Relationships for Shallow Water Modes
Inertio-
Gravity waves
Frequency
Kelvin waves
Equatorial
Rossby waves
Zonal Wavenumber
Equatorially trapped Rossby–gravity waves
Spatial structure of the equatorial mixed Rossby–gravity waves

Equatorial Kelvin waves
Spatial structure of the equatorial Kelvin Waves

Discovery of the QBO 1959-1961

Discovery of the QBO
Search for an
explanation of the QBO
Matsuno (1966):
development of a theory Matsuno (JMSJ, 1966)
of waves in the tropics Yanai and Maruyama (JMSJ, 1966)
Increasing use of Wallace and Kousky (JAS, 1968)

spectrum analysis with
tropical data and the
introduction of the FFT
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)
KANTON ISLAND
Madden and Julian, JAS 1971

The large scale circulation and its modes of variability
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)
Phase between Kanton station pressure and all other station pressures
Madden and Julian, JAS 1972

Equatorial Waves (Kelvin and Rossby) in the ocean

Five Day Zonal wind, SST and 20C isotherm depth anomalies, 2S – 2N averages

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) From Battisti (2000)
Observational basis for the theory of ENSO

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a interannual ocean-atmosphere coupled oscillation occurring in the tropical
Pacific, in which warming of sea surface temperature (SST) and weakening of the equatorial trades in the central and
eastern Pacific accompany the displacement of heavy rainfall from the Indonesian subcontinent to the Central Pacific.
The pivotal interpretation linking these observations in a theory for ENSO was made by Bjerknes (1969), who noted that
equatorial Pacific trade winds and zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradients are able to feedback positively. An
anomalously warm western Pacific and cold eastern Pacific lead to strong convection in the west; this convection in turn
drives strong easterly trades that reinforce the SST gradient through various mechanisms (horizontal advection; equatorial
upwelling; and upward thermocline displacement) that cool the central and eastern Pacific SST.
The opposite situation leads to El Niño.
Bjerknes' hypothesis still left many fundamental questions unanswered:
• Why do El Niño events usually last one year?

• Why is their evolution phase-locked with the annual cycle?
• Why do they end?
• Why are they often followed by colder than normal conditions in the tropical Pacific?
Wyrtki (1975,1979) shifted the attention from ocean thermodynamics to ocean

dynamics by noting that basin-wide sea level changes occur concurrently with ENSO
events, such that higher sea level occurs in the eastern Pacific during warm ENSO
events. He also showed that the initial wind changes occur in the central and western
Pacific, far from the local of SST changes, and suggested that this information could
be propagated to the eastern Pacific through the ocean equatorial waveguide in
the form of equatorial Kelvin waves.
These observations studies laid the foundation for the developing theory of ENSO
based on wave dynamics
Delayed Oscillator Theory: evolution of RW and KW
When the equatorial ocean is

perturbed (e.g. by changing
winds), its adjustment toward
a new state is accomplished
by wave propagation.
1. Kelvin wave travels with speed of about 3 m/s, to the EAST and crosses the Pacific in
about 2 months.
2. Rossby wave travels with phase of about 1 m/s to the WEST and crosses the Pacific in 6
months.



Delayed oscillator equation:
(2)
nonlinear
positive feedback due damping term
to the Kelvin wave Rossby wave with a longer-
delayed negative feedback
The first term in this equation provides a positive feedback due to the Kelvin wave, with a short
delay of about one month; the second term represents the Rossby wave with a longer-delayed
negative feedback, and the last term is a nonlinear damping term. This last equation (2) is the
desired delayed oscillator equation for El Nino.

Five Day Zonal wind, SST and 20C isotherm depth anomalies, 2°S – 2°N averages
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Navarra et al. (2008)
Heat content time–longitude plots (Contour interval

0.4°C)
5°S–5°N 10°–15°N 15°–20°N
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Sea–level height anomalies 4°N
Observations of
Rossby waves in
the equatorial
Pacific
End of Lecture 2

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Climate and Global Changes in the Age

Climate and Global Changes in the Age of

Lecture 2: The Earth’s climate system and its dynamics

Lecture 3: Modelling the climate system

Zonal average of mean zonal wind

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics

Lapse _rate = dT/dz

Lapse rate varies in

• Equilibrium state of atmosphere and surface in

• Radiative heating (cooling) drives actual state

Energy balance of the earth

Outgoing radiative energy

Incoming solar radiation = outgoing planetary radiation

Flux, Flux density, solar constant

Assume radiative flux is spherically uniform

In case of the Earth-Sun distance: d = 1.5 · 1011 m and

1. All incident radiation is completely absorbed

2. In all wavelength bands and in all directions the maximum possible

Stefan-Boltzmann Law for blackbody radiation:

EBB = s T4 s = Stefan-Boltzmann constant

Absorbed solar radiation = So (1-ap) p R2

Emitted terrestrial radiation = s Te4 4 p R2

Simple Greenhouse Model (highly reduced model)

Top of Atmosphere (TOA) balance:

Diagram of the energy fluxes for a planet with an atmosphere that

Simple Greenhouse Model (highly reduced model)

A multilayer Greenhouse Model

A multilayer Greenhouse Model

Simple Greenhouse Model

• Surface temperature too large

• Real atmosphere is not opaque

A leaky Greenhouse Model

A multilayer leaky Greenhouse Model

Full Calculation of radiative equilibrium

Problems with radiative equilibrium solution

• Stratospheric temp. close to observed

• Too cold at and near the surface

• Lapse rate too large in the Troposphere

Radiative equilibrium is unstable in the troposphere

Missing ingredient: Convection

• Also controls distribution

Re–calculate equilibrium assuming that tropospheric

Better, but still

Atmospheric humidity: moist convection

Atmospheric humidity: moist convection

The energy released in the middle troposphere

The atmosphere responds to this perturbation

(Image courtesy of University of Illinois)

Atmospheric humidity: moist convection

(Image courtesy of University of Illinois)

To ‘tie’ these variables down we need five independent equations:

1. Conservation of energy ! thermodynamic heat equation, a statement of the

2. Conservation of mass ! continuity equation.

3. Conservation of momentum ! three equation of motion for a fluid parcel; three

(Conservation of angular momentum ! vorticity equation)

1st law of Thermodyn. cp dT d(pdα) dQ

Conservation of mass (of a dry air parcel)

Conservation of mass in pressure coordinates

Therefore the continuity equation in pressure coordinates becomes:

Conservation of momentum inertial (non-rotating) system

Equation of motion inertial (non-rotating) system

Since the mass of the parcel is δM = ρ δx δy δz,

ρδV dU = F where V=(u,v,w) is the parcel’s velocity.