Fault Tree Analysis

Reliability

• Define the following terms associated with reliability :

• Reliability 𝑹 𝒕 : The probability that the system operates correctly (or performs its intended
function) throughout the interval (0, t) given that it was operating correctly at 𝑡 = 0.
• Unreliability 𝑸 𝒕 : The probability that the system fails during interval (0,𝑡), given that it was
operating correctly at 𝑡 = 0.
• Failure density 𝒇 𝒕): The term 𝑓 𝑡 𝑑𝑡 is the probability that the system fails in time 𝑑𝑡 about 𝑡.
• Failure rate 𝝀 𝒕 : The term 𝜆 𝑡) 𝑑𝑡 is the conditional probability of system failure in time 𝑑𝑡
about 𝑡, given that no failure occurs up to time t:

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 PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

• Exponential distribution
• Probability density function

• The expected value or mean of a variable x

• The variance of x is
• The median value is

IE5319 Risk Modeling and Assessment TTU 2019 3

Example

• Seven pumps have failure times (in months) of 15.1, 10.7, 8.8, 11.3,
12.6, 14.4, and 8.7. Assume the failure time of this type of pump follows
an exponential distribution.
(a) Estimate the failure rate and mean time to failure.
(b) Estimate the reliability of a pump for t = 12 months

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 Example

• Seven pumps have failure times (in months) of 15.1, 10.7, 8.8, 11.3,
12.6, 14.4, and 8.7. Assume the failure time of this type of pump follows
an exponential distribution.
(a) Estimate the failure rate and mean time to failure.
(b) Estimate the reliability of a pump for t = 12 months
Solution:
MTTF = (15.1+10.7+8.8+11.3+12.6+14.4+8.7)/7 = 11.7
𝜆=1/11.7
R(t) = exp(-𝜆t) = exp(-12/11.7) = 0.3568 5

Exercise

• Time to Failure of a repairable hazard barrier in a facility is supposed

to follow exponential distribution with 𝜆=0.001. Assuming that repairs
are perfect, i.e., the barrier is renewed to its original state upon failure.
1. What is the probability of failure in 1000h
2. What is the probability of the hazard barrier survives 1000h.
3. Assess the mean number of repairs during a mission time of 1000h.

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 Fault Tree Analysis

• A fault tree is a graphic model of the various sequential and parallel

combinations of faults that will result in the occurrence of the predefined
undesired event.
• A few of the most common symbols used for fault-tree construction and analysis
are shown below

The OR gate

• Consider a simple water pumping system consisting of a water source,

two pumps in parallel, a valve, and a reactor. A no flow of water to the
reactor constitutes the undesired event—that is, a failure of the system.
Denote the failure of the system as the top event, T. Then we can
represent this simple water pumping system as shown in Figure below.

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 The AND gate

• The AND gate represents the intersection of the events attached to the
gate, where the components are in parallel.

Series System

• When subsystems are connected in series, the system fails when at least
one of its components fails:

• To generalize, let 𝑅 𝑡 represent the reliability of the 𝑖th subsystem and

let 𝑅 𝑡 represent the reliability of the entire system:

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 Parallel System

• The AND gate is equivalent to the Boolean symbol ·.

• For example, the AND gate with two input events is equivalent to the
Boolean expression , If A and B are independent events, then
P(B|A) = P(B) or P(A|B) = P(A); therefore,

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Parallel System

• For the parallel system, the unreliability of the pumps in parallel is

• In general,

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 Series System

• The OR gate represents the union of the events attached to the gate.
• The OR gate with two input events is equivalent to the Boolean
expression
• In terms of probability,

• If A and B are independent events, then P(B|A) = P(B) or P(A|B) =

P(A); therefore,
• For rare event
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Venn Diagram Representation of Sets

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 Boolean Algebra

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Boolean Algebra

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 Boolean Algebra

• Example

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MINIMAL CUT SETS

• A minimal cut set is defined as the smallest combination of component
failures, which, if they all occur, will cause the top event to occur.
• Once the minimal cut sets are known, then any system can be written as
the series arrangements of its cut sets, and the components of each
minimal cut set are arranged in parallel.

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 MINIMAL CUT SETS

• The general expression of the minimal cut set for the top event can
be written as a combination of OR gates:

where T is the top event and each Mi, i = 1, 2, …, k, is a minimal cut

set and where

and 𝑋 are basic events that can be written as a combination of

AND gates.
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MINIMAL CUT SETS

For the fault tree of OR gate, the minimal cut set

expression is

with A and B as the two minimal cut sets. Similarly, for

the AND gate, the minimal cut set expression is

with A • B as the only minimal cut set.

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 Fault-Tree Evaluation

• Denote the unreliability of the basic event (component) by qj(t). Then the
unreliability of the minimal cut set i, Qi(t), with ni components, is given by

• The unreliability of the system (top event), Qs(t), is given as

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Fault-Tree Evaluation

• The fraction of system unreliability contributed by minimal cut set i, Ei(t),

is given as

• The fraction of system unreliability that is contributed by the failure of

component 𝑘, ek(t), which represents the importance of component 𝑘 at
time t, is given by

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 Example
• Consider the fault tree given in the figure. The fault
tree can be constructed by following either the top-
down or bottom-up approaches.
• Top-Down Approach

Substituting for E3,

C·C = C,

But A·C+B·C+C+E4·C = C by the law of absorption:

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Example

• Top-Down Approach
By substituting for E4 and applying the law of absorption twice,

The minimal cut sets of the top event are thus

The equivalent final tree is shown in Figure.

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 Example
• Bottom-Up Approach

Because E4 has only A·B basic failures, we substitute into E2 to obtain

Note that A·C+B·C+C+A·B·C = C by law of absorption. Thus,

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Example Problem
To evaluate the reliability of its water distribution system to a local hospital, a major city in
Virginia commissioned a study that applied fault-tree analysis to the distribution of water
to a hospital. The study sought to determine the weakest connections where the water
valves might fail and completely shut the hospital off from the water distribution system.
Pipes to the hospital can collect water from two mains, 1 and 2, at two distinct connections
(points). When a valve fails, it closes, and the water flow stops.

The hospital is denoted by the letter H, the valves

are denoted by |X|. Note that valves C and D and
valves E and F are in parallel. All valves have an
equal probability of failure, which is 1/5000. It is
assumed that water is flowing through both mains
with no failure expected.
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 Example Problem

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Example Problem

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 Example Problem

Substituting for the value of H,

Substituting for the value of G,

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Example Problem
Five policy options are considered to improve the reliability of the water distribution system:
1. Adding another pipe from Main 2 with a single valve (cost: $3,000,000)
2. Replacing the valves with new equipment with probability of failure = 1/10,000 (cost:
$2 million)
3. Adding another valve in parallel with A (cost: $3.6 million)
4. Removing valve A (cost: $4 million)
5. Adding a small gadget to each valve that decreases the probability of failure by 33%
(cost: $1 million)

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