Chapter - 9

Reliability and Maintainability Prediction

1
 a) Reliability prediction

❑It is the process of calculating the anticipated system

reliability from assumed component failure rates.

❑It provides a quantitative measure of how close a

design comes to meet its objectives (specification).

❑ Permits comparisons to be made between different

design proposals.

2
 Reliability prediction is important for the
following reasons:
❖ It provides an early indication of a system’s potential
to meet the design reliability requirements.
❖ It enables an assessment of life cycle costs to be
carried out.
❖ It enables establishment of areas which contribute
major part system unreliability.
❖ It enables the achievement of a given availability.
❖ It provides prior knowledge as to the magnitude of
expected maintenance work load.
3
Cont.…

❑ For the purpose of analysis, a large and complex plant

is regarded as a hierarchy of parts ranked according to
their function and replaceability.

❑ The figure next slide shows how a plant can be divided

to its basic components.

4
Hierarchy of parts of a plant

Performing the overall

PLANT function

-Performing major
UNITS plant functions

-Non-replaceable
ITEMS -Replaceable complex
-Replaceable simple

-Individual parts
COMPONENTS -Simple replaceable

5
 Cont.…
 adopting the hierarchical approach in reliability
analysis allows for a more systematic and targeted
assessment of a large and complex plant.
 It helps:
✓identify critical components,
✓prioritize maintenance efforts,
✓assess risks,
✓plan contingencies,
✓optimize resource allocation, and
✓make informed decisions to improve the system's
reliability, performance, and operational
efficiency.
6
Block Diagram Analysis
❖ Block diagrams are logic diagrams which show the functional
relationship among the system elements.

❖ To be able to predict reliability of a system, the system is

represented as a number of functional blocks that are
interconnected according to effect.

❖ The interconnection of blocks can be one of the possible three

types: Series, Parallel, Composite

❖ However, there are cases when these interconnections may not

represent a system.
7
❖ The approach to block diagram analysis requires
establishment of failure criteria.

❖ In defining the blocks, the following rules should be

considered .
➢ Each block should represent the maximum number of
components in order to simplify the diagram.

➢ The function of each block should be easily identified.

➢ Blocks should be mutually independent in that failure in

one block should not affect the probability of failure in
other blocks.
8
➢ There should be only one environment within a block.
Block interconnections
a) Series-connected components
❑For such a system to work all components must work. For a
system of two blocks failure of either block prevents operation
of the system.

A B

Reliability of a series-connected system is

Rsy (t ) = R1 (A
t ) R2 (t ) Rn (t )

9
Reliability of a component is

( )  ( )
Ri t = exp −  i t dt 
t

 0   
System reliability is
 n t   t n 
Rsy (t ) = exp −   i (t )dt  = exp −   i (t )dt 
 i =1 0   0 i =1 

For constant failure rate λ, system reliability is

Rsy (t ) = exp− (1 + 2 + n )t 
10
 For identical-unit series system the reliability plot is
indicated

1.00

R sy
n increasing

0.0
1.00 0.0
R unit

1.00
11
For constant failure rates, system MTBF is

 n 
MTBF =  R(t )dt =  exp −  i t  dt =
t t 1
n
 i =1 

0 0
i
i =1

12
 Ex.9.1 An electronic system consist of a power supply , a
receiver and an amplifier with failure rate of 25
failures/106h, 30 failure/106h and 15 failures/106h
respectively. The equipment is to operate for 1000 h. what is
the probability of survival of this component?
 𝒔𝒐𝒍𝒖𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏
 𝝀 𝒑𝒐𝒘𝒆𝒓 𝒔𝒖𝒑𝒑𝒍𝒚 = 𝟐𝟓𝒇𝒂𝒊𝒍𝒖𝒓𝒆𝒔/𝟏𝟎^𝟔𝒉
−𝟔
 𝑹𝒑𝒐𝒘𝒆𝒓 = 𝒆 −𝟐𝟓∗𝟏𝟎 ∗𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎 = 𝒆−𝟎.𝟎𝟐𝟓 = 𝟎. 𝟗𝟕𝟓𝟑𝟏

 𝝀𝒓𝒆𝒄𝒆𝒊𝒗𝒆𝒓 = 𝟑𝟎𝒇𝒂𝒊𝒍𝒖𝒓𝒆𝒔/𝟏𝟎^𝟔𝒉
 𝑹𝒓𝒆𝒄𝒆𝒊𝒗𝒆𝒓 = 𝒆𝒙𝒑(−𝟑𝟎 ∗ 𝟏𝟎 − 𝟔 ∗ 𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎) = 𝟎. 𝟗𝟕𝟎𝟒𝟓
 𝝀𝒂𝒎𝒑𝒍𝒊𝒇𝒂𝒊𝒆𝒓 = 𝟏𝟓 𝒇𝒂𝒊𝒍𝒖𝒓𝒆𝒔/𝟏𝟎𝟔𝒉
−𝟔
 𝑹𝒂𝒎𝒑𝒍𝒊𝒇𝒊𝒆𝒓 = 𝒆 −𝟏𝟓∗𝟏𝟎 ∗𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎 = 𝟎. 𝟗𝟖𝟓𝟏𝟏

 𝑹𝑬𝒒𝒖𝒊𝒑𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕 = 𝑹𝒑𝒐𝒘𝒆𝒓. 𝑹𝑹𝒆𝒄𝒆𝒊𝒗𝒆𝒓. 𝑹𝒂𝒎𝒑𝒍𝒊𝒇𝒊𝒆𝒓

𝑹𝑬𝒒𝒖𝒊𝒑𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕 = 𝟎. 𝟗𝟕𝟓𝟑𝟏 ∗ 𝟎. 𝟗𝟕𝟎𝟒𝟓 ∗ 𝟎. 𝟗𝟖𝟓𝟏𝟏 = 𝟎. 𝟗𝟑𝟐𝟒
13
 Ex 9.2 Calculate the probability of survival for a piece of
equipment that is to operate for 500h and consists of four sub
systems connected in series having the following MTBF’s.
Subsystem MTBF
 Failure rate for a component is given by
A 5000h
𝟏
 𝝀= 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒇𝒂𝒊𝒍𝒖𝒓𝒆 𝒓𝒂𝒕𝒆 𝒇𝒐𝒓 𝒔𝒖𝒃𝒔𝒚𝒔𝒕𝒆𝒎𝒔
B 3000h
𝑴𝑻𝑩𝑭
𝟏 C 15,000
 𝝀𝑨 = 𝒇𝒂𝒊𝒍𝒖𝒓𝒆𝒔/𝒉 D 50,000
𝟓𝟎𝟎𝟎
𝟏
 𝝀𝑩 = 𝒇𝒂𝒊𝒍𝒖𝒓𝒆𝒔/𝒉
𝟑𝟎𝟎𝟎
𝟏
 𝝀𝑪 = 𝒇𝒂𝒊𝒍𝒖𝒓𝒆𝒔/𝒉
𝟏𝟓𝟎𝟎𝟎
𝟏
 𝝀𝑫 = 𝒇𝒂𝒊𝒍𝒖𝒓𝒆𝒔/𝒉
𝟓𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎
 𝝀 = 𝝀𝑨 + 𝝀𝑩 + 𝝀𝑪 + 𝝀𝑫 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟔𝟕𝒇𝒂𝒊𝒍𝒖𝒓𝒆𝒔/𝒉
 𝑺𝒚𝒔𝒕𝒆𝒎 𝑹𝒆𝒍𝒊𝒂𝒃𝒊𝒍𝒊𝒕𝒚 = 𝑹𝑬𝒒𝒖𝒊𝒑𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕 = 𝒆𝒙𝒑[− 𝝀𝑨 + 𝝀𝑩 + 𝝀𝑪 + 𝝀𝑫 𝒕]

 𝑹𝑬𝒒𝒖𝒊𝒑𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕 = 𝒆−𝝀𝒕 = 𝒆−𝟎.𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟔𝟕∗𝟓𝟎𝟎 = 𝟎. 𝟕𝟏𝟓𝟑

14
b) Parallel-connected components
❑For such a system,
A system failure
B constitutes failure of all
components. The system of two blocks fails if both blocks
fail.
A

❑Parallel connections can be in:

➢ full active redundancy, B
➢ partial
A active redundancy, or
➢ standby. C
15
 I.All systems activated (full active redundancy)
➢ In this type of parallel connection all components
are functioning simultaneously.

➢ For the system of two subsystems A and B,

➢ there are three possible ways in which the system is
able to operate:
✓ both subsystems A and B are working;
✓ subsystem A is working, B has failed; or
✓ subsystem A has failed, B is working

➢ The system fails if only both subsystems fail.

16
❑ Assuming the failure probabilities of components A and B to
be FA (t ) and FB (t ) , respectively, the probability that the
system fails is given by
Fsy (t ) = FA (t ) FB (t )
❑ 𝑭𝑨 𝒕 = 𝟏 − 𝑹𝑨 𝒕 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑭𝑩 𝒕 = 𝟏 − 𝑹𝑩(𝒕)
The survival probability is then
Rsy (t ) = 1 − Fsy (t )
❑If survival probabilities of the components are RA (t ) and
RB (t ) , the system reliability is given by

𝑹𝒔𝒚 𝒕 = 𝟏 − (𝟏 − 𝑹𝑨 𝒕 )(𝟏 − 𝑹𝑩 𝒕 )
Rsy (t ) = RA (t ) + RB (t ) − RA (t ) RB (t )
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❑For n redundant units

Rsy = 1 − (11.00
− R1 (t )) (1 − R2 (t0.0
))(1 − Rn (t ))
0.0

R unit

1.00

R sy n increasing

0.0
1.00 0.0
R unit
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❑For full active redundancy and constant failure rate λ for
each component, system MTBF is

0
t

0

MTBF =  Rsy (t )dt =  1 − 1 − e ( ) dt
− t n

n
1 1
= 
 i =1 i

19
  Example 9.3: A critical system consists of three identical
components operating in full active redundancy mode.
Each component has a constant failure rate, λ=0.01 failures
per hour. Assuming that the failures of the components are
independent and each component operates 100 hours of
operation:
a) calculate the mean time between failures (MTBF)
b) The reliability of the system.
Solution
a) MTBF = (1/λ) * Σ(1/i)
= (1/0.01) * (1/1 + 1/2 + 1/3)
= 183.33 hours
b) Rsy= 1 - (1 - Ri)^n = 1 - (1 – e^-(0.01*100))^3 ,
= 1-0.2526
20
= 0.7474
ii) Partial Active Redundancy
❑Partial active redundancy is also known as r-out-of-m
unit network. At least r units out of m active units must
function successfully for the system success. The system
reliability is given by

 m  − t i
( )( )
m
Rsy =    e − t m −i
1− e
i =r  r 

m m!
  =
 r  i!(m − i )!

21
❑The MTBF of partially active redundant systems, with
constant failure rate λ, is given by

 m  m  − t i 
MTBF =     e
t
( )(
1− e − t
)
m −i
 dt
 i=r  r  
0

1 m 1
= 
 i =r i

22
 Ex. 9.3 An aircraft has four independent, active and identical

engines. At least two of the engines must operate successfully for

the aircraft to fly successfully. The constant failure rate of each
engine is 0.009 failures/h. compute the reliability of the aircraft
seven hour flying mission.
 Solution case of two out of four events
 The failure rate is given as 𝝀 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟗𝒇𝒂𝒊𝒍𝒖𝒓𝒆𝒔/𝒉 ,the system
reliability of the aircraft can be obtained from the relationship
𝒎
Rsys= σ𝒎 𝒊=𝒓 𝒓 (𝒆 −𝝀𝒕 𝒊
) (𝟏 − 𝒆 −𝝀𝒕 𝒎−𝒊
)
𝟒 −𝟎.𝟎𝟎𝟗∗𝟕 )𝟐 (𝟏 − 𝒆−𝟎.𝟎𝟎𝟗∗𝟕 )𝟒−𝟐
 R sys = 𝟐
(𝒆
𝟒 −𝟎.𝟎𝟎𝟗∗𝟕 )𝟑 (𝟏 − 𝒆−𝟎.𝟎𝟎𝟗∗𝟕 )𝟒−𝟑
+ 𝟑
(𝒆
𝟒
+ (𝒆−𝟎.𝟎𝟎𝟗∗𝟕 )𝟒 (𝟏 − 𝒆−𝟎.𝟎𝟎𝟗∗𝟕 )𝟒−𝟒
𝟒
23 𝑹𝒔𝒚𝒔 = 𝟎. 𝟗𝟗𝟗𝟏
iii) Parallel Redundant System in Standby
❑ In the standby configuration one or more subsystems are ready to

take over operation upon failure of the basic unit.

❑ The standby units are not operative until a failure-sensing device

senses the failure of the basic unit and turns on and connects the
standby unit.

B
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❑ In parallel standby systems , the following assumptions are initially

made.
➢ The means of sensing that failure has occurred and for
switching from the defective to the standby is assumed to
be failure free.
➢ The standby subsystems are assumed to have identical,
constant failure rates to the main subsystem.
➢ The standby subsystems are assumed not to fail while in the
idle state.
➢ Defective subsystems are assumed to remain so. No repair is
effected until the system has failed.
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 Cont.…
❖Each Poisson term represents probability of an
occurrence.
✓ Poisson term Probability of occurrence of Event
e−a probability of zero occurrence
−a
ae probability of one occurrence
2
a −a
e probability of two occurrences
2!

a k −a
e probability of k occurrences
26
k!
❑ The Poisson distribution is used to determine the reliability of

stand by systems since they display the constant λt characteristic

of the Poisson process.
− t
➢ probability of no failure is e
− t
➢ probability of one failure is given by t  e
➢ probability of two failures is
(t ) 2
e − t

2!
For a system with n standby units, system reliability is


Rsy = 1 + (t ) +
( t)
2
++
( t )  − t
n −1
e
 2 ! ( n − 1 )! 
 27
❑ Assuming that the switching process does not affect the basic
unit, for one standby unit, the system reliability is given by

Rsy = e − t
+ Rsw  (t )  e − t

❑ where Rsw is reliability of the fault sensing and switching device.

❑ For a system with n-1 standby units, system reliability is

Rsy = e − t

+ Rsw   (t ) +
( t)
2
++
( t )  − t
n −1
e
 2 ! ( n − 1 )! 


28
❑ MTBF of a system with n-1 standby units is

MTBF =  R(t )dt

t


t
=  1 + t +
(t )
++
(t ) 
2 n

 dt
0
 2! (n − 1)!
❑ For a constant failure rate λ of all units, the reliability is

n
MTBF =


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 Ex. 9.5 an electronic device has a failure rate of 500

failures/106h.one identical standby unit is used to increase

the reliability of the basic device. The operating time is
1000h. The reliability of the failure setting and switching
element is 𝑹𝑺𝑾 = 𝟎. 𝟗𝟕 . What is the system reliability?

 Solution : for the basic unit and stand unit, the expected

number of failure is 𝝀𝒕 = 𝟓𝟎𝟎 ∗ 𝟏𝟎 − 𝟔 ∗ 𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎 = 𝟎. 𝟓

 𝑹𝒔𝒚𝒔 = 𝒆−𝝀𝒕 + 𝑹𝒔𝒘. 𝝀𝒕 𝒆−𝝀𝒕 = 𝒆−𝝀𝒕 𝟏 + 𝑹𝒔𝒘. 𝝀𝒕

 𝑹𝒔𝒚𝒔 = 𝒆−𝟎.𝟓 𝟏 + 𝟎. 𝟗𝟕 ∗ 𝟎. 𝟓 = 𝟎. 𝟗𝟎𝟎𝟕

30
c) Composite connection
A
❑ This is a combination of series and parallel connections. For the

system shown, the system fails if block A fails or if both blocks B

B is not sufficient to cause system
and C fail. Failure of B or C alone
failure.

B
A

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 Ex. 9.3 Assuming that 𝑹𝑨 = 𝑹𝑩 = 𝑹𝑪 = 𝑹𝑫 = 𝟎. 𝟗, determine
the overall system reliability for the arrangement shown.

A B

C D

❑Since A and B also C and D are in series, their respective

probability are given by 𝑹𝑨𝑩 = 𝑹𝑨. 𝑹𝑩
𝑹𝑪𝑫 = 𝑹𝑪. 𝑹𝑫
With the system reliability is found to be
𝑹𝒔𝒚𝒔 = 𝟏 − 𝟏 − 𝑹𝑨𝑩 . 𝟏 − 𝑹𝑪𝑫
= 𝟏 − 𝟏 − 𝑹𝑨. 𝑹𝑩 . 𝟏 − 𝑹𝑪. 𝑹𝑫
= 𝟏 − 𝟏 − 𝟎. 𝟗 ∗ 𝟎. 𝟗 . 𝟏 − 𝟎. 𝟗 ∗ 𝟎. 𝟗
𝑹𝒔𝒚𝒔 = 𝟎. 𝟗𝟔𝟑𝟗
32
 Ex.9.6 for the system connection shown in the figure below,
determine system reliability given the reliability of each
component given.
A C B
 Solution : the three elements A,B and C
connected in parallel in the upper row. This
connection is in series with the lower row
Al Bl
of two elements, A’ and B’, which are parallel
to each other.
✓ Reliability of the upper connection is
𝑹𝑨𝑩𝑪 = 𝟏 − (𝟏 − 𝑹𝑨)(𝟏 − 𝑹𝑩)(𝟏 − 𝑹𝑪)
✓ Reliability of lower connection 𝑹 ′ 𝑩′ 𝟏 − (𝟏 − 𝑹 ′ )(𝟏 − 𝑹 ′ )
𝑨 = 𝑨 𝑩
✓ Hence System reliability= 𝑹𝒔𝒚𝒔 = 𝑹𝑨𝑩𝑪 ∗ 𝑹 ′ 𝑩′
𝑨

𝑹𝒔𝒚𝒔 = 𝟏 − 𝟏 − 𝑹𝑨 𝟏 − 𝑹𝑩 𝟏 − 𝑹𝑪 ][𝟏 − (𝟏 − 𝑹𝑨′ )(𝟏 − 𝑹𝑩′ )

 d) Neither Series Nor Parallel Connections
❑ These are cases in which the system configuration cannot be

reduced to simple series and parallel models, nor any

combination of these.

A C B

A' B'

34
 ❑For such situations where uncertainty exists to the
configuration of the system, Baye’s theorem can be
helpful to determine the system reliability. The use of
Baye’s theorem is demonstrated as follows.
✓ Consider the block diagram shown above. The connection of
the blocks in this case is neither parallel nor series.
✓ To ensure the reliability of the system, i.e. for the system to
operate successfully, at least on of the paths AA’ or BB’ should
function.
✓ However, since neither A nor B is fully reliable, a third element
C is added to supply either A’ or B’. Hence four paths are
possible:
35 AA’, BB’, CA’ or CB’
❑System reliability is determined as follows:

✓ System success requires that at least one of the paths AA’, BB’,

CA’ or CB’ be successful.

With C working successfully,

Rsy Cs = 1 − (1 − RA' )(1 − RB' )RC

With C unsuccessful,

Rsy Cus = 1 − (1 − RA RA' )(1 − RB RB' )(1 − RC )

36
✓ Hence, system reliability is given by the sum of the above

reliability terms

Rsy = Rsy Cs + Rsy Cus

✓ Substituting and simplifying yields

Rsy = 1 − RC (1 − RA' )(1 − RB ' ) −

(1 − RC )(1 − RA RA' )(1 − RB RB ' )

37
b) Maintainability prediction
❑ In assigning any maintenance workload, it is important to
specify the time during which the job has to be accomplished.

❑ Doing this will help optimize the resource allocation and will
help eliminating idle man-hour, idle machine time and so on.

❑ Hence, maintenance engineers should engage themselves in

determining the time which a specific maintenance job is
going to take.

❑ This is done by determining the maximum repair time, the

median repair time and the maintainability probability.

❑ To this end determining the maintainability function plays an

38
important role.
Maximum Repair Time (case of constant m)
❑ The maintainability probability function for maximum
time is  t M max 
− 
( )
M t M max = 1 − e
 MTTR 
 

In general,  t M max 
− 
( )
M t M max = 1 −  = 1 − e  MTTR 


This yields
t M max
ln( ) = −
MTTR
40
❑Given (
M t M max )
and knowing the MTTR of an
equipment, the maximum time required for a
maintenance task is

𝑡𝑀max = -ln 𝛼 MTTR

where
 = 1 − M (t M max
)
41
 Ex.9.7 it is specified that with probability 𝑴 𝒕 = 𝟎. 𝟗,

the maintenance time for a specific equipment must not

exceed 2h, tMmax=2h. Determine the MTTR of the
equipment.

 Solution

𝑴 𝒕 = 𝟏 − 𝜶 = 𝟎. 𝟗 → 𝜶 = 𝟎. 𝟏

✓ The meantime to repair is obtained to be

𝒕𝑴𝒎𝒂𝒙 𝟐
𝑴𝑻𝑻𝑹 = − = − = 𝟎. 𝟖𝟔𝟗𝒉
𝒍𝒂𝒏 𝜶 𝒍𝒂𝒏(𝟎.𝟏)

42 = 𝟓𝟐𝒎𝒊𝒏
 Thank you

49