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ASSIGNEMENT NO.:07

PRACTICE PROBLEMS:

Fill in the given tables and answer the questions:

Note: Round “te” , “σte ”,v and “σTE” to two decimal places and round “TE” to the nearest
whole day.

PROBLEM NO.01: Fill the following table and answer the questions.

1)- TE =? 2)- σTE =?

Find the probability that the project will finish:

3)- By the end of day 26.

4)- Before the start of day 25.

5)- During day 24.

6)-Find the date of completion with at least 93 percent confidence.

SOLUTION:

1)- TE =25 days

2)- σTE =√ ∑V=1.55

3)- Z-26=(26-25)/1.55=0.65 ( i-e Z=(TS-TE)/ σTE )

P-26=75% (From the Z-table)

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4)- Z-24=(24-25)/1.55= -0.65

P-24=75%

5)- Z-23=(23-25)/1.55= -1.29

P-23=10% now

P24= P-24 - P-23 =26-10=16%

6)- For P=93%, Z=1.5=( TS-25)/ 1.55 )

TS =28 days

PROBLEM NO.02: Fill the following table and answer the questions.

1)- TE =? 2)- σTE =?

Find the probability that the project will finish:

3)- At least 2 days early. 4)- No more than 1 day early.

5)- On TE . 6)- On day 13, 14, or 15.

7)- By the end of day 17. 8)- Before the start of day 18.

9)-Find the date of completion with at least 83 percent confidence.

SOLUTION:

1)- TE =16 days

2)- σTE =√ ∑V=1.69

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3)-TE -2= 14; Z-14=(14-16)/1.69= -1.18 ( i-e Z=(TS-TE)/ σTE )

P-14=12% (From the Z-table)

4)- TE -1= 15; Z-15=(15-16)/1.69= -0.59

P-15=27 %

P15- =100-27=73 %

5)- Z-16=(16-16)/ 1.69= 0

P-16=50% and P-15=27 % so

P16= P-16- P-15=50-27=23%

6) - Z-12=(12-16)/1.69= -2.37

P-12=1% and P-15=27 %

P13, 14, 15= P-15 - P-12=27-1=26%

7)- Z-17=(17-16)/1.69= 0.59

P-17=73%

8)- Z-17=(17-16)/1.69= 0.59

P-17=73%

9)- For P=83%, Z=0.95=( TS-16)/ 1.69 )

TS =17.6=18 days

PROBLEM NO.03: Fill the following table and answer the questions.

1)- TE =? 2)- σTE =?

Find the probability that the project will finish:

3)- By the end of day 69.

4)- On day 66.

5)- Before the start of day 67

6)-Find the date of completion with at least 98 percent confidence.\

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SOLUTION:

1)- TE =68 days

2)- σTE =√ ∑V=1.79

3)- Z-69 = (69-68)/1.79 = 0.56 ( i-e Z=(TS-TE)/ σTE )

P-69 =71% (From the Z-table)

4)- Z-66 =(66-68)/1.79 = -1.12 ; P-66=14%

Z-65 =(65-68)/1.79 = -1.68 ; P-65=5%

P66= P-66- P-65 = 14-5= 9%

5)- Z-66 =(66-68)/1.79 = -1.12 ; P-66=14%

6)- For P=98%, Z= 2 =( TS-68)/ 1.79 )

TS = 68.59 = 69 days
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SUPPLEMENTARY PROBLEMS:

PROBLEM NO. 01: Fill the following table and answer the questions.

1)- TE =? 2)- σTE =?

Find the probability that the project will finish:

3)- By the end of day 33.

4)- Before the start of day 32.

5)- During day 31.

6)-Find the date of completion with at least 80 percent confidence.

SOLUTION:

1)- TE =32 days

2)- σTE =√ ∑V=1.40

3)- Z-33=(33-32)/1.40=0.71 ( i-e Z=(TS-TE)/ σTE )

P-33=71% (From the Z-table)

4)- Z-31=(31-32)/1.40= -0.71

P-31=24%

5)- Z-30=(30-32)/1.40= -1.43; P-30=8% now

P31= P-31 - P-30 =24-8=16%

6)- For P=80%, Z=0.83=( TS-32)/ 1.40 )

TS =33.162= 33 days
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PROBLEM NO.02: Fill the following table and answer the questions.

1)- TE =? 2)- σTE =?

Find the probability that the project will finish:

3)- At least 2 days early. 4)- No more than 1 day early.

5)- On TE . 6)- On day 23, 24, or 25.

7)-Find the date of completion with at least 93 percent confidence.

SOLUTION:

1)- TE =25 days

2)- σTE =√ ∑V=2.12

3)-TE -2= 23; Z-23=(23-25)/2.12=- 0.94 ( i-e Z=(TS-TE)/ σTE )

P-23=18% (From the Z-table)

4)- TE -1= 24; Z-24=(24-25)/2.12= -0.47

P-24=31 %

P24- =100-31=69 %

5)- Z-25=(25-25)/2.12= 0

P-25=50%

6) - Z-22=(22-25)/ 2.12= -1.42

P-22=8% and P-15=27 %

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P23, 24, 25= P-25 - P-22= 50-8 = 42%

7)- For P=93%, Z=1.5=( TS-25)/ 1.69 )

TS = 28.18 = 28 days

PROBLEM NO.03: Fill the following table and answer the questions.

1)- TE =? 2)- σTE =?

Find the probability that the project will finish:

3)- By the end of day 58.

4)- On day 55.

5)- Before the start of day 56.

6)-Find the date of completion with at least 98 percent confidence.

SOLUTION:

1)- TE =56 days

2)- σTE =√ ∑V=1.70

3)- Z-58 = (58-56)/1.70 = 1.18 ( i-e Z=(TS-TE)/ σTE )

P-58 =88% (From the Z-table)

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4)- Z-55 =(55-56)/1.70 = -0.59 ; P-55=27%

Z-54 =(54-56)/1.70 = -1.18 ; P-54=12%

P55= P-55- P-54 = 27-12= 15%

5)- Z-55 =(55-56/1.70 = -0.59 ; P-55=27%

6)- For P=98%, Z= 2 =( TS-56)/ 1.70 )

TS = 59.4 = 59 days