Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research Vol. 8, No.

2, 2018, 2758-2763 2758

Assessing Power System Stability Following Load

Changes and Considering Uncertainty
Van Duong Ngo Van Kien Pham
University of Danang Faculty of Electrical
Danang, Vietnam Engineering
nvduong@ac.udn.vn The University of
Danang—University of
Science and
Technology, Vietnam
pvkien@dut.udn.vn
Dinh Duong Le Kim Hung Le Van Ky Huynh
Faculty of Electrical Faculty of Electrical University of Danang
Engineering Engineering Danang, Vietnam
The University of The University of hvky@ac.udn.vn
Danang—University of Danang—University of
Science and Science and
Technology, Vietnam Technology, Vietnam
ldduong@dut.udn.vn lekimhung@dut.udn.vn

Abstract—An increase in load capacity during the operation of a
power system usually causes voltage drop and leads to system
instability, so it is necessary to monitor the effect of load changes.
This article presents a method of assessing the power system
stability according to the load node capacity considering
uncertainty factors in the system. The proposed approach can be
applied to large-scale power systems for voltage stability
assessment in real-time.
Keywords-stability; power system; power plane; uncertainty;
Gaussian elimination
I. INTRODUCTION
Power system stability could be defined as “the ability of an
electric power system, for a given initially operating condition,
to regain a state of operating equilibrium after being subjected
to a physical disturbance with most system variables bounded,
so that practically the entire system remains intact” [1]. In [1],
power system stability is broadly classified into three groups:
frequency stability [2-4], rotor angle stability [5-7], and voltage
stability [8-14]. Voltage stability could be defined as the ability
of the system to maintain steady voltages at all buses in the
system after being subjected to a disturbance from a given
initial operating condition [1, 8, 11]. Voltage stability is
divided into two subcategories: large and small disturbance
stability. System faults, tripping transmission lines or dropping
in generators are considered large disturbances whereas load
changes are considered small disturbances. Static voltage
stability is considered in the present paper in particular. The
system is assumed to be operated in an equilibrium state and
static voltage stability analysis assesses the feasibility of the
operating point to provide the system operators with a
permissible region in which the system can operate normally.
Many techniques have been used in static voltage stability
analysis in the literature. The well-known P-V and Q-V curves
are widely used [8, 15-20] to determine the maximum
permissible loading of the system. In particular, a P-V curve
provides the relationship between the real power load and bus
voltage and it is depicted with a constant power factor [17].
Contrariwise, a Q-V curve, plotted for a constant power
[17], gives the change of bus voltages with respect to reactive
power injection or absorption. Procedures for constructing both
P-V and Q-V curves are time-consuming because a large
number of power flows is needed to be executed using
conventional methods and models [21]. Due to this drawback,
they are not suitable to be used for online analysis. Moreover,
they could be used only for certain increasing modes and not
for providing the whole view of the analysis. Generally, they
examine an individual bus by stressing the considered bus
independently so they are not able to fully reflect the real
stability condition of the system. In fact, voltage collapse
occurs when the system load, i.e., real power and/or reactive
power load, grows over a certain limit. Hence, voltage stability
boundary needs to be plotted on a power plane [17]. It will
form a P-Q curve [8, 22-26] that is very useful to determine
boundary and operating regions for the system. Once the
boundary is determined, the distance from the operating point
to the voltage collape of the system can be directly assessed.
For this work, stability reserve ratios are widely used in
practice. Figure 1 shows, as an example, a P-Q curve (stability
boundary) that divides power plane into two regions: normal
region and impossible operating region. From Figure 1,
stability reserve ratios k P and kQ can be calculated as follows:
Plim - P0
kP = 100%
P0
Qlim - Q0
kQ = 100%
Q0
where, P0 and Q0 are real and reactive power of the
considered load at the operating point; Plim and Qlim are the
limitations of real and reactive power, recpectively. A P-Q
curve can be determined by various approaches. In [8, 22-24],
the curve is characterized by a parabolic equation, while it is
assumed to follow a circle in [25]. Nevertheless, such
assumptions on the shape of the curve make it unrealistic. In
addition, those techniques usually require high computational
time so they are not suitable for online voltage stability

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 Engineerin
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asssessment. In [226], P-Q curve can be fastlyy constructed point- . 1

by-point withoutt using any asssumption aboout the shape of the Y ij  .
:Y = mutual admittance
a bettween bus i annd bus
currve. However,, all of the aboove mentionedd approaches aare not Zij
acccounted for soources of unceertainty in pow
wer systems, suuch as j.
loaads, uncertainnties from reenewable souurces and raandom
outtages of brancches and generrating units. From (1), addopting Gaussiian eliminatioon method, wee can
makke a simplifiied equivalennt diagram foor the networrk as
folllows.
.
b sides of tthe last equatioon in (1) by Y NN
First, devide both
. . .
Y N1 . Y NF . Y Ni . .
- .
V 1 ...- .
V F ... .
V i ...+V N = 0 (2)
Y NN Y NN Y NNN
.
Next, multiplyy both sides of each equatioon in (2) with Y iN
. . .
Y NN1 . . Y NFF . . Y Ni . . . .

.
Y iN V 1 ...- .
Y iN V F ... .
Y iN V i ...+Y iN V N = 0 (3)
Fig. 1. P-Q curve and operating regions on power plane.
Y NN Y NNN Y NN
In this papeer, we proposee an approachh to assess voltage m the ith equattion in (2) yiellds
Eventually, suubtract (3) from
staability consideering uncertaiinties in pow wer systems w with a . .
number of attracctive features. Firstly, for woorking in a reaal-time . . Y NF Y iN
envvironment, we w adopt Gauussian eliminaation techniqque to Y *iF  Y iF  .
(4)
simmplify a compplex diagram to t a simple onne, then we uuse the Y NN
anaalytical technnique developeed in [26] foor constructingg P-Q . .
currves. Thanks to these technniques, the prooposed methood can andd the Nth compponent in eachh equation in (2) (i.e., YiN . V N )
proovide results quickly,
q hencee it can be appplied to largee-scale will be eliminatedd.
power systems for voltage sstability assesssment in reall-time.
Secondly, in orrder to take into i account randomness in i the After the abovve steps, we can
c eliminate oone equation inn (1),
sysstem, a large number of P--Q curves is pplotted and voltage i.e.,, the last equaation in (1). Equation
E (4) is used to calcculate
staability is asseessed probabiilistically. In addition, thee P-Q admmittances for the equivalennt network aft fter eliminatingg the
currves built are realistic, sincee no assumptioon on the channge of lastt bus. We reppeat the abovve process unntill obtainingg F+1
loaad is used to coonstruct the cuurves. equuations from thhe initial N eqquations in (1).. Therefore, w
we can
makke an equivaleent network foor the considerred network w with F
II. SIMPLLIFIED POWER SYSTEM
S DIAGR
RAM ALGORITH
HM genneration buses and a load buus considered aas shown in F Figure
Considering a power netwwork with N+11 buses (includding a 2.
groounding bus, denoted 0) in which generation busees are
numbered from 1 to F, loads aare representedd by admittancces so .
E1
.
Z1(F1)
.
V ( F1)
maining busees are interm
rem mediate busees, we can form
admmittance equaations to presennt steady-statee of the system
m as in Y10
.

(1)). . .
E2 Z2(F1)
 . . . . . . . . . . .

  Y11 V1  Y122 V 2 ...  Y1F V F ...  Y1i V i ...  Y1N V N  J1

Y 20
.

 . . . . . . . . . . .

  Y 21 V1  Y 222 V 2 ...  Y11 V F ...  Y 2i V i ...  Y 2N V N  J2 (1) .

Ei
.
Zi(F1)
.
 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... Y (F11)0

  Y. V. .
 Y F22 V 2
. .
...  Y FF V F
. .
...  Y Fi V i
. .
...  Y FN V N
.
 JF
.
.
F1 1
 Y i0
 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... . .
 . . . . . . . . . . EF ZF( F1)
  Y i1 V1  Y i22 V 2 ...  Y iF V F ...  Y ii V i ...  Y iN V N  0

 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .
Y F0
 . . . . . . . . . .
 Y N1 V1  Y N2 V2 ...  Y NF V F ...  Y Ni V i ...  Y NN V N  0

whhere: Fig. 2. Equivvalent network w

with F generationn buses and a loaad bus
considered.
N
. 1 .
Y ii   .
:Y = ∑ self admittannce ( Z ij = Rij + jX ij In Figure 2, admittance Y (F+1)0 betweenn bus F+1 andd the
Z iji 1
i j groounding bus 0 included admiittance of the load at bus F+ +1. In
is the
t impedancee of branch bettween i and j; i = 1÷N; j = 1÷
÷N), ordder to assess thhe ability accorrding to changge at the considdered
loadd, electromotiive force Εi (ii=1÷F) is connsiderd as connstant

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 Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research Vol. 8, No. 2, 2018, 2758-2763 2760

(so Yi0 can be eliminated) and the load is separated as in Figure by a normal distribution function, while renewable power
3. generation is usually represented by a generic function such as
Beta, Gamma, Weibull functions, etc [29]. Random outage of
. .
an element such as transmission line, transformer, generating
.
E1 Z1(F1) V (F1) unit can be described by a 0-1 distribution function (0: outage
. .
state, 1: working state; an operating element can be failed with
E2 Z2(F1) a certain probability) [29]. If all generating units in a power
SL = PL+jQ L
. . plant are the same, the combination of 0-1 distribution function
Ei Zi(F1) for each unit could be represented by a binomial distribution
. .
. function [29].
EF ZF(F1) Y0

Start
Fig. 3. Simplified equivalent diagram.

In Figure 3, Y = G + jB is parallel with the admittance Input data of the system

(System parameters and operating Power system components libraries

of the load Y = G + jB , where

parameters)

G 0  G (F 1)0  G L Calculate
admittances of all Set value k = N
branches of the
B0  B(F 1)0  BL G L  PL / V 2
F 1,rated
system

Calculate admittances for simplifying the

BL  Q L / VF21,rated and True Check information of power

network diagram using (4) and
k = N-1
system (System parameters and
operating parameters)
VF 1,rated is the rated voltage at bus F+1. k < (N - F-1)
True

False False
Equation (1) can be represented in a matrix form as in (5),
Compute and form admittance matrix Y of Calculate admittances of the simplified
in which the first matrix is denoted as Y (called admittance the system equivalent diagram with (F+1) buses in Fig. 3

matrix):
Save matrix Y

. . . . . . . Select the load bus i to calculate Save result

+Y 11 -Y 12 ... -Y 1F ... -Y 1i ... -Y 1N V 1 J1
. . . . . . .
-Y 21 +Y 22 ... +Y 2F ... -Y 2i ... -Y 2N V 2 J2 Exchange row i and row (F+1), column i and End
column (F+1) in matrix Y
... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
. . . . . . . (5) Fig. 4. Algorithm for making a simplified equivalent diagram based
-Y F1 -Y F2 ... +Y FF ... -Y Fi ... -Y FN V F = J F on Gaussian elimination method.
... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
.
-Y i1
.
-Y i2 ...
.
-Y iF ... +Y ii
.
...
.
-Y iN V i
.
Ji
.
IV. STABILITY ASSESSING ALGORITHM DEVELOPMENT
... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... For an electrical power system with N buses (excluding a
. . . . . . . grounding bus, with F generation buses, bus 1 is considered as
-Y N1 -Y N2 ... -Y NF ... -Y Ni ... +Y NN V N JN the slack bus), in order to examine the stability of the system
according to the change at a certain load bus, first, we use the
It is worth noting that when we need to assess voltage algorithm discussed in Section II to obtain the simplified
stability at a certain load bus, that bus is numbered F+1 before equivalent diagram for the considered network. When the
forming either (1) or (5). Alternatively, at first, the equations system is operating at a certain state with known network
are formed, then in order to consider any load bus i, rows i and configuration, generating power, load, ect., we increase load at
F+1, and columns i and F+1 are exchanged. Based on the the considered bus and use the pragmatic criterion dQ/dV
above analysis, we developped an algorithm for making a presented in [26, 30] to construct the permissible operating
simplified equivalent diagram for the considered network, as in region on a power plane under the conditions of a static
Figure 4. stability limit as in Figure 5. In Figure 5, M1 is a certain
III. REPRESENTING UNCERTAIN FACTORS IN ELECTRICAL operating point of the load considered belonging to stable
POWER SYSTEMS
region, while M2 belongs to unstable region of the system (see
Figure 1). Suppose that the system is operating at M1, its
In a power system, random factors related to the load, stability and the dangerous level of increasing load can be
failures of elements in the system, renewable energy sources evaluated according to the distance from M1 to the stability
can be represented by probability distribution functions [27- boundary. When random factors, as discussed in Section III,
29]. These functions describe the inherent nature of uncertainty are considered, stability boundary is not represented by a single
factors and need to be integrated into the analysis of the curve but by a set of curves as shown in Figure 6. Uncertainties
system. In practice, such functions can be estimated based on in the system, related to load, renewable sources, random
historical data measured at loads, data on failures of lines, outages of lines, generating units, etc., can be represented by
generating units, etc. In the literature load is usually expressed probability functions and set of random samples representing

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 Engineerin
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c be generaated using sam

theese functions can mpling techniquues in Powwer plant connnected to bus 1 is assumed tto have 12 idenntical
staatistics [31, 322]. In Figure 66, each curve is plotted forr each gennerating units,, while remaaining power plants includde 10
sam mple. Assumee that N1 sampples are generaated (i.e., N1 ccurves idenntical generatiing units.
aree plotted) andd the considereed load is opeerating at poinnt M3
(seee Figure 6). In order to evaluate danggerous level oof the
sysstem in terms of static volttage stability, we draw a sttraight S
Start

linne connecting the origin O aand M3 that iintersects N2 ccurves Input data of the system
andd the probabbility of unstaability (dangeerous level) oof the (System parameterss, operating parameters
and probability disstribution functions of
sysstem can be caalculated as in (6): random m factors)

N2 Select load at th
he bus considered

p= 1100  %  (6) and make simp plified equivalent

diagram using the algorithmn in
N1 g. 4.
Fig

Therefore, based on the operating

o poinnt of the consiidered Generate se t of N1 random
samples accord ding to probability

loaad on power plane, the stability of the systtem can be asssessed distribution fun ctions of random
factors in the system

andd the system falls into one of three cases (correspondding to

reggions 1, 2, 3 ono power planne): (1) if the load is workking at Set k = 1
point M1, the system is cerrtainly stable (p=0). (2) Iff it is
woorking at M2, the system is certainly unsttable (p=100% %). (3)
If it is working at M3, the syystem may bee stable or unnstable
witth probabilityy of instabilitty p (0%<p<1100%). When n p is k = k+1
Calculate and
d plot P-Q curve
for each ssample [31]
Sa v e
re s u l t

greeatter than a ceertain value, thhe operator off the system neeeds to
carrry out approppriate remedial actions to reduce the looad to
avooid instabilityy for the systeem. The prop posed algorithhm for
False
asssessing stabilitty of power syystems accordding to load chhanges k = N1

connsidering unceertainty is show wn in detail inn Figure 7.

True

P [MW] Compute proba

ability of instability
usin
ng (6)

M
M2
P2
E
End

Fig. 7. Algorrithm for assessinng stability of poower systems acccording

P1
M1 to load changes considering
c uncerrtainty.

Q [Mvaar]
0 Q1 Q2

F
Fig. 5. Operatting points on pow
wer plane.

P [MW]

M
M2
P2

P3 M3

M1
P1

Q [Mvaar]
0 Q1 Q2 Q3

Fig. 6. Set of P-Q curvess on power plane when conssidering

uncertainty in thhe system.

V. MODELLING AND RESU

ULTS Fiig. 8. Diagram
m of IEEE-39 buss system.
We considerr the IEEE 39 9-bus system describded inn [33]
(Fiigure 8). In thhe system, loaad at each buus is modelled d by a Probability oof failure of each
e unit is aassumed to bee 8%.
norrmal distribuution characterized by itts expected value Binnomial and 0-1 distribution functions aree used to reprresent
(deeterministic vaalue [33]) andd standard devviation (assum med to unccertainties from
m generating units and brannch outages. F From
be equal to 10% of its expecteed value). Ranndom outage of each those probabilityy functions, 11000 sampless are generateed to
braanch is assumeed to have proobability of faiilure equal to 0.1%. represent uncertaainties from raandom factors which are useed for
voltage stability aassessment in this test. Baseed on the propposed

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 Engineerin
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h Vol. 8, No. 2, 22018, 2758-27663
alggorithm, a com mputer program m is developeed to assess staability
of IEEE 39-bus system accordding to load cchanges considdering
uncertainty usinng Delphi proggramming lannguage. Startinng the
proogram, its inteerface is shownn as in Figure 9.
Fig. 9. Interrface of the com
mputer program ddevelopped for sstability
assessment of IE
EEE 39-bus systeem according to looad changes.
When we nneed to evalluate the sysstem accordinng to
connditions of staatic stability limit under unccertainty at a certain
c asseessment. The proposed appproach can be
loaad bus, we rigght click on thhe bus. Figuress from 10 to 12,1 for
exaample, show tthe results of bus 25 corressponding to various
buus operating coonditions. In eaach Figure, a sset of 1000 currves is
plootted and thesse curves dividde the power plane into diffferent
reggions. Figuress 10, 11 andd 12 correspoond to stable state
(prrobability of innstability of 00%), unstable sstate (probabillity of
insstability of 1000%) and insttability with pprobability equ qual to
30.4%, respectivvely.
Fig. 10. Resuult of voltage stabbility assessment at bus 25 when tthe load
is working at reggion 1.
Fig. 11. Resuult of voltage stabbility assessment at bus 25 when tthe load
is working at reggion 2.
www.etasrr.com Ngo eet al.: Assessingg Power System Stability Folloowing Load Chaanges and Conssidering Uncerrtainty
2762
Fig. 12. Resullt of voltage stabiility assessment aat bus 25 when thhe load
is working at reggion 3.
VI. CO
ONCLUSIONS
In this paper a methodologyy for voltage sstability assesssment
undder uncertaintty is proposedd. Random fa factors in a power
p
system related too loads, randdom outages oof elements inn the
system, renewabble energy soources can bbe represented by
proobability distribbution functioons and taken into account iin the
b used for online
o
voltage stability study thankss to, adoptingg a technique for
makking a simpliffied equivalennt diagram for a complex syystem
bassed on Gaussiaan eliminationn method, and,, making use oof the
anaalytical techniique developeed in [26] to plot P-Q cuurves.
Theese techniquess allow us to provide results quickly and can be
appplied to largee-scale powerr systems forr voltage staability
asseessment in reaal-time. Moreoover, the P-Q curves construucted
are realistic becaause no assum mption on the change of looad is
useed for their connstruction.
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