Six Sigma 3

Lean Manufacturing and Process

Improvement
Lecture 8, November 19, 2020

Week 10 Lean Manufacturing/ Process Improvement Slide 1

Normal Distribution
1. A normal distribution curve is bell shaped
2. The mean, median, mode are equal and
located at the center of distribution
3. A normal distribution curve is uni-model.
4. The curve is symmetric about the mean.
5. The curve is continuous (no gaps or holes)
6. The curve never touches x axis. No
matter how far in either direction the
curve extends, it never meets x axis.
7. The total area under a normal distribution
curve is equal to 1.00 or 100%
8. The area under the part of a normal curve
that lies within one standard deviation of the
mean is approximately 0.68 or 68%; within 2
standard deviations, about 0.95 or 95% and
within 3 standard deviations, about 0.997 or
99.7%.

Week 10 Lean Manufacturing/ Process Improvement Slide 2

Area Under normal distribution curve
Find an area between z=0 and z=1
From table,
Z= 1, area = 0.8413
Z=0; area = 0.5
Area between Z=0 and Z=1 is (0.8413-0.5) = 0.34

Find an area between Z = -1 and Z=1

From table,
Z= 1, area = 0.8413
Z= -1, area = 0.1587
Area between Z= -1 and Z= 1 is (0.8413 – 0.1587) = 0.6826 or 68%

Find an area to the left of Z= -1

From table, Z= -1, area = .1587 or 15.87%

Find and area to the right of Z= 1

From table, Z=1, area = .8413
Area to the right of Z= 1 equals (1 – 0.8413) = .1587 or 15.87%
Week 10 Lean Manufacturing/ Process Improvement Slide 3
Application of Normal distribution
value – mean
Z=
Standard deviation

X-µ
Z=
σ
Each month, An American household generates an average of 28 pounds of
newspaper for garbage or recycling. Assume standard deviation is 2 pounds. Find
the probability of its generating
a. Between 27 and 31 pounds
Assume the variable is approximately normally distributed
Hence, The probability that a
a. Z1 = (27 – 28) / 2 = -0.5
randomly selected household
Z2 = (31 – 28) / 2 = 1.5
generates between 27 and 31
From Table, For Z1 = - 0.5, area = 0.3085 and
pounds is 62.47%
For Z2 = 1.5, area = 0.9332
Total area = (0.9332 – 0.3085) = 0.6247 or 62.47%
Week 10 Lean Manufacturing/ Process Improvement Slide 4
Central Limit Theorem

• The central limit theorem states that a

group of sample averages tends to be
normally distributed; as the sample size n
increases, this tendency toward normality
improves.

• The central limit theorem enables

conclusions to be drawn from the sample
data and applied to a population.

Week 10 Lean Manufacturing/ Process Improvement Slide 5

Distribution of Sample Mean
(application of Central Limit theorem)
• The mean of the sample mean will be the same as the
population mean

• The standard deviation of the sample mean will be smaller

than the standard deviation of the population and it will be
equal to the population standard deviation divided by the
square root of the sample size

X - µ
Z =
σ/ √n

Week 10 Lean Manufacturing/ Process Improvement Slide 6

Distribution of Sample Mean
X - µ
Z =
σ/ √n
The average number of pounds of meat that a person consumes a year is
218.4 pounds. Assume that the standard deviation is 25 pounds and the
distribution approximately normal.
a. If a sample of 40 individual is selected. Find the probability that the
mean of the sample will be less than 224 pounds per year

(224 – 218.4)
Z= = 1.42
25/ √40
From table, For Z = 1.42, area = 0.9222 or 92.22%

Hence, the probability that the mean of a sample of 40 individuals less than
224 pounds is 0.92222 or 92.22%

Week 10 Lean Manufacturing/ Process Improvement Slide 7

Control Chart
Uses of this tool: Mean Chart for Defects in Bolts

11.50

11.00

• A Control Chart uses statistical techniques to indicate that a process is

Number of Defects
10.50

10.00

statistically ‘out of control’, or is in danger of going out of control. 9.50

9.00

8.50

• It is used to determine whether the normal operation of the process has

8.00

7
10

13

16

19

22

25

28

31

34

37
Sam ple number

changed.

Uses:
• To identify a process which is statistically out of control and Mean Chart for Defects in Bolts
Investigate
abnormality
which requires direct improvement activity. 11.50 • Investigate:
11.00
• why did the mean of the

Number of Defects
10.50 sample increase at sample
• To determine whether and when a change has taken place in 10.00
13
9.50 • why did the range of
the normal operation of a process. For example to detect that 9.00
sampled values increase
at sample 24

a machine has gone out of adjustment and is not producing

8.50

8.00

products within specified tolerances. Sample number Check control

Range Chart for Defects in Bolts
• Warning on Average Chart: 2
consecutive points above
• Following the implementation of a process improvement, 4.00

3.50
warning line
• Action on Average Chart: a
Control Charts can be used to confirm that the desired 3.00

2.50 point above action line

2.00
• Action on Range Chart: a point
change in performance has taken place. 1.50

1.00
above action line

0.50

• Control Charts are mainly used on an ongoing basis to 0.00

Sample Number

ensure that a process remains in control. It detects when it is

not so that remedial action can be taken.
Week 10 Lean Manufacturing/ Process Improvement Slide 8
Control Chart - Benefits

Expected Benefits:
• Provides an understanding of the operation of a process.
• The range of the values of the performance are identified.
• Trends are clearly visible.
• Change trends are distinguished from normal operating variations in the performance measures.

Week 10 Lean Manufacturing/ Process Improvement Slide 9

Control Chart - Risks and how to avoid them
Risks :
• The Control Chart does not indicate that the
process is out of control.
• The Control Charts are not maintained.
• Incorrect setting up of the Control Chart.
Week 10 Lean Manufacturing/ Process Improvement
Steps to avoid them :
• The measure selected for monitoring must be
capable of indicating when the process is under
control and when it is not.
• The warning and action lines must be calculated
correctly during a period of stability.
• The Control Chart system must be implemented
into the process operation for it to succeed.
• Expertise is required to set Control Charts up
correctly and to implement the data collection
system. Help may be found in specialist books
and software packages that do the calculations
for you (e.g. Minitab).
Slide 10
Control Chart - Background
Background:
• The American Walter Shewhart is credited with the invention of Control Charts in the 1920s
which are also sometimes known as ‘Shewhart charts’.
• Control Charts are one of the Statistical Process Control (SPC) tools.
• SPC differentiates between the causes of variation during the operation of a process. There are
common, chance or random variations (e.g. test equipment accuracy) and ‘assignable’, special
causes of variation.
• Control Charts are used to detect when a change (or an assignable variation) appears to have
taken place, as opposed to common causes of variation.

Week 10 Lean Manufacturing/ Process Improvement Slide 11

Control Chart - Procedures
• Determine what measure or measures can be used to determine that
the process is operating correctly.
Identify measures • Determine what data needs to be collected for the measure(s).
• Determine if the data needs to be sampled.
Determine • Determine the type of chart by considering the data type of the
chart type measure and whether individual or averages of samples are being
used.
• Construct the line graph
Construct • Draw the centre line at the ‘target’ value (e.g. the mean value)
the chart • Draw the upper and lower warning and action limit lines (Note the
calculation of these values is outside the scope of this tool description)
• Take regular individual or sample measurements according to the
Take frequency determined.
measurements • Calculate the mean and ranges according to the chart type.
• Plot the values on the chart drawing a line between consecutive plots.
• As each new measurement is plotted, use the ‘control rules’ to
Check control determine if the process has become unstable.
• Additionally, plot a Cusum Chart. An upwards or downwards trend on
the Cusum chart means a change has occurred.
• Determine from the Control Chart when the change occurred.
Investigate • Investigate what was happening at the time of the change.
abnormalities • Undertake cause & effect analysis to determine what needs to be
improved.
Week 10 Lean Manufacturing/ Process Improvement
The sample size should be between 1 & 12.
This may be dictated by the nature of the
process (e.g. if n things are produced at the
same time.) Again the nature of the process
may determine the sample frequency.
The warning lines are drawn 2 standard
deviations from the target, whilst the action lines
are drawn 3 standard deviations away.
Remember that these are calculated—they are
not specification limits.
Ensure that the measurement tools themselves are
regularly calibrated for accuracy.
Approximately 20 measurements need to be taken
when the process is known to be stable to calculate
the estimated mean and standard deviation.
‘Out of Control’ Indicators:
 1 point outside an action line
 2 consecutive points between warning &
action lines
 7 consecutive points on the same side of the
centre line.
 7 consecutive points in a rising or falling trend.
 5 points in a trend crossing a warning line
Slide 12
Control Chart – Determining Chart Type
Yes Defects in sample
Will (c chart)
there be a
constant number of
Defects measurements in
each sample? Ratio of defects
Are (u chart)
the defects or No
the defectives
Counted (Attribute) being counted?
Yes Number defect
Will (np chart)
there be a
Defectives constant number of
measurements in
each sample? Proportion defective
(p chart)
No

Is the data Average & Standard

measured deviation Chart
Over ten
or (X- bar, S)
counted?

How many Average & Range

Measured (Variable) Chart
in each
Two to ten (X-bar, R)
sample?

Individual & Moving

Range Chart
one (X bar, MR)

Week 10 Lean Manufacturing/ Process Improvement Slide 13

Control Chart – X-bar, R chart
 An ‘X-bar and R’ chart is a chart often used, developed from
measurements of a particular characteristic of the process.
 Data is recorded in small subgroups, usually from 5 to max 10 pieces,
taken at regular intervals.
 Data is collected, recorded and plotted on the chart. Remember, X-Bar is
the mean average, R is the range.
 An ‘X-bar and R’ chart requires a large amount of data.
 This is added to the chart so that the mean average ‘X-bar’ and range ‘R’
can be calculated.
 The X-bar and R values are then plotted.
 Control limits can then be calculated and plotted.
 Analysis can then be made to see if the process from which the data was
obtained is capable.

Week 10 Lean Manufacturing/ Process Improvement Slide 14

Control Chart –R chart, X-bar Chart,

Week 10 Lean Manufacturing/ Process Improvement Slide 15

Control Chart – X-bar, R chart - Example
OBSERVATIONS (SLIP-RING DIAMETER, CM)
SAMPLE n 1 2 3 4 5 x R
1 5.02 5.01 4.94 4.99 4.96 4.98 0.08
S 2 5.01 5.03 5.07 4.95 4.96 5.00 0.12
u 3 4.99 5.00 4.93 4.92 4.99 4.97 0.08
b 4 5.03 4.91 5.01 4.98 4.89 4.96 0.14
g 5 4.95 4.92 5.03 5.05 5.01 4.99 0.13
r 6 4.97 5.06 5.06 4.96 5.03 5.01 0.10
o 7 5.05 5.01 5.10 4.96 4.99 5.02 0.14
u 8 5.09 5.10 5.00 4.99 5.08 5.05 0.11
p 9 5.14 5.10 4.99 5.08 5.09 5.08 0.15
10 5.01 4.98 5.08 5.07 4.99 5.03 0.10
50.09 1.15

Week 10 Lean Manufacturing/ Process Improvement Slide 16

Control Chart – X-bar, R chart - Example
= x 50.09
x= n = 10 = 5.01 cm
=
UCL = x + A2R = 5.01 + (0.58)(0.115) = 5.08
=
LCL = x - A2R = 5.01 - (0.58)(0.115) = 4.94

Week 10 Lean Manufacturing/ Process Improvement Slide 17

Control Chart – X-bar, R chart - Example

R 1.15 UCL = D4R = 2.11(0.115) = 0.243

R= = = 0.115
n 10 LCL = D3R = 0(0.115) = 0

Week 10 Lean Manufacturing/ Process Improvement Slide 18

Control Chart – X-bar, R chart - Example

 Each measures the process differently

 Both process average and variability
must be in control

Week 10 Lean Manufacturing/ Process Improvement Slide 19

Control Chart – Test for assignable causes

• Tests for assignable causes:

 One point beyond 3 (3s)
 Nine points in a row on one side of the center line
 Six points in a row steadily increasing or decreasing
 Fourteen points in a row alternating up and down
 Two out of three points in a row beyond 2 (2s)
 Four out of five points in a row beyond 1 (1s)
 Fifteen points in a row within 1 (1s) of the center line
 Eight points in a row on both sides of the center line, all
beyond 1 (1s)

Week 10 Lean Manufacturing/ Process Improvement Slide 20

Tests for Assignable Causes
Value
Test 1: One value beyond
3
2 3 (3s)
1
1
2

3

Time
Value
Test 2: Nine points in a
3
2 row on one side
1 of the center line.
1
2

3

Time
Week 10 Lean Manufacturing/ Process Improvement Slide 21
Tests for Assignable Causes
Value
Test 3: Six points in a
3
2 row steadily
1 increasing or
1
2 decreasing.

3

Time
Value
Test 4: Fourteen points in
3
2 a row alternating
1 up and down.
1
2

3

Time

Week 10 Lean Manufacturing/ Process Improvement Slide 22

Tests for Assignable Causes
Value
Test 5: Two out of three
3
2 points in a row
1 beyond 2 (2s)
1
2

3

Time
Value
Test 6: Four out of five
3
2 points in a row
1 beyond 1 (1s)
1
2

3

Time

Week 10 Lean Manufacturing/ Process Improvement Slide 23

Tests for Assignable Causes
(Continued)
Value
Test 7: Fifteen points in a
3
2 row within 1
1 (1s) of the center
1
2 line.

3

Time
Value
Test 8: Eight points in a
3
2 row on both sides
1 of the center line,
1
2 all beyond 1 (1s)

3

Time

Week 10 Lean Manufacturing/ Process Improvement Slide 24

Revising the chart
∑ X is sum of all the subgroups means
∑ X - ∑ Xd ∑ Xd is sum of the discarded subgroups
=
X =
new means
k – kd K is number of subgroups
Kd is the number of discarded subgroups
∑ R is sum of all the subgroups ranges
∑ R - ∑ Rd ∑ Rd is sum of the discarded subgroups
Rnew = ranges
k - kd
• Chart exhibits good control
• Modifications/ change in the process are permanent
• New operating conditions become routine
• Patterns identified and eliminated
• New limits after removing the uncontrolled points

Week 10 Lean Manufacturing/ Process Improvement Slide 25

Revising the chart
Rnew
σnew =
d2

UCL x = Xnew + Aσnew

LCLx = Xnew - Aσnew

UCLR= D2 σnew
LCLR = D1 σnew

Week 10 Lean Manufacturing/ Process Improvement Slide 26

Revising the chart
Suppose, two samples are out of control in range chart
and 3 samples are out of control on average chart Deduct the means of
5 discarded subgroups
Sum of all means for
the original data
∑ X - ∑ Xd 671 – 37.8 – 38.4 – 31.8 -33.8 - 34
Xnew = = = 33.013
k – kd 20 - 5 Deduct the ranges of
5 discarded subgroups
∑ R - ∑ Rd 124 – 19 – 14 – 6 -4 - 9
Rnew = = = 4.8
k – kd Sum of all
20 - 5
ranges for the Total # of discarded
original data subgroups from both
Rnew x-bar and R chart
σnew = = 4.8/ 2.326 = 2.064
d2

Week 10 Lean Manufacturing/ Process Improvement Slide 27

Revising the chart

UCL x = Xnew + Aσnew = 33.013 + 1.34x2.064 = 35.78

LCLx = Xnew - Aσnew= 33.013 - 1.34x2.064 = 30.25

UCLR= D2 σnew= 4.91 x 2.064= 10.13

LCLR = D1 σnew= 0

Week 10 Lean Manufacturing/ Process Improvement Slide 28

Control Chart – X-bar, S chart
 An ‘X-bar and S’ chart is a chart often used, developed from
measurements of a particular characteristic of the process.
 The sample size n is moderately large = n> 10 or 12
 The sample size n is variable

Week 10 Lean Manufacturing/ Process Improvement Slide 29

Control Chart – X-bar, S chart
= x
x= n

=
UCL = x + A3S
=
LCL = x – A3S

If σ is known, If σ is unknown,

UCL = B6σ UCL = B4 S

Center line = c4σ Center line = S
LCL = B5σ LCL = B3S

Week 10 Lean Manufacturing/ Process Improvement Slide 30

The p Chart (attribute): Proportion of Defective
Items

Elements of a control chart for the process

proportion :
Center line : p
p (1 - p ) p (1 - p )
LCL : p - 3 UCL : p + 3
n n
where : n is the number of elements in each
sample
p is the proportion of defectives in
the combined, overall sample

Week 10 Lean Manufacturing/ Process Improvement Slide 31

The p Chart (attribute): Proportion of Defective Items

Process is out of control – Two points fall outside the control limit

Week 10 Lean Manufacturing/ Process Improvement Slide 32

The c Chart (attribute): (Defects Per Item)

Elements of a control chart for the number

of imperfections per item, c:
Center line: c
LCL: c - 3 c UCL: c + 3 c
where: c is the average number of defects
or imperfections per item (or area,
volume, etc. )

Week 10 Lean Manufacturing/ Process Improvement Slide 33

The c Chart (attribute): (Defects Per Item)

Observe that one observation is outside the upper control limit,

indicating that the process may be out of control. The general
downward trend should be investigated.
Week 10 Lean Manufacturing/ Process Improvement Slide 34
Other Charts

np chart = Total number non-conforming chart

u chart = Number of non-conformities per unit chart

Week 10 Lean Manufacturing/ Process Improvement Slide 35

Week 10 Lean Manufacturing/ Process Improvement Slide 36