Derivation of predictive algorithms for highway pavement life using

deviator structural number

The equation for the pavement prediction best-fit curve was generated, in two significant digits, using
the software matlab®, and is expressed as:

3 2
y=−0.11 x +0.073 x −0.27 x+19 ................................... (1)
How the Equation was generated in Matlab®
The equation was generated by inputting the derived coordinate data, (x and y), for the pavement
performance shown in table 4.6c, into the matlab algorithm of appendix 1, to generate the plot shown
in figure x.

Pavement Performance Prediction Curve

20 1
2 45 8 Prediction Curve
18 3 67
10
11
16
12
9
Pavement Life(Years)

14
13

12
14

10

15
4
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5
Deviator Structural Number(SNdemand-SNsupplied)

Figure x: Pavement performance prediction curve

The plot was analysed using the curve-fitting toolbox of matlab to get the best-fit curve shown in red
colour in figure xx.
f(x) = p1*x^3 + p2*x^2 + p3*x + p4
Coefficients (with 95% confidence bounds):
p1 = -0.1116
p2 = 0.07331
p3 = -0.2701
p4 = 18.95
 Pavement Performance Prediction Curve
20
y vs. x
fit 1
18

16
Pavement Life (Years)

14
y = - 0.11*x 3 + 0.073*x 2 - 0.27*x + 19

12

10

4
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5
Deviator Structural Number (SNdemand-SNsupplied)
 Pavement Performance Prediction Curve
20
y vs. x
fit 1
18

16
Pavement Life (Years)

14

12

10

4
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5
Deviator Structural Number (SNdemand-SNsupplied)

Figure xx: Pavement performance best-fit curve.

Analysis using the Curve Fitting (C-F) toolbox
When the C-F tool dialog box is displayed, the data button was clicked to import from the workspace
the data set (x and y for the pavement performance) which the best fit curve is needed, then the fitting
button was clicked to open the fittings dialog box. On the fittings dialog box, the new fit button was
clicked to activate the fittings dialog box. The type of fit was set to polynomial and the various
polynomial plots were checked for the best-fit curve. It was observed that the cubic polynomial best-
fits the pavement performance data set of table 4.6c.
Matlab® displays the best-fit curve equation on the result window of the fittings dialog box.

APPENDIX 1
% Pavement Performance Prediction Curve.
x=[0.62,0.73,0.63,1.60,1.7,1.7,1.7,...
2.2,1.8,2.5,3.2,3.2,3.8,4.0,5.2];
y=[19.5,19.0,18.0,19.0,19.0,18.0,18.0,...
19.0,15.0,17.0,16.0,15.0,13.0,11.0,4.0];
plot(x,y,'*-'),
grid on,
gtext({'1';'2';'3';'4';'5';'6';'7';'8';'9'; ...
'10';'11';'12';'13';'14';'15'})
xlabel('Deviator Structural Number(SNdemand-SNsupplied)')
ylabel('Pavement Life(Years)')
title('Pavement Performance Prediction Curve')
legend('Prediction Curve')
cftool

Sir, the second and third plots are the same. I only removed the grid so that the equation will be
clear.