554 TRAFFIC ENGINEERING AND TRANSPORT

P(7) = P(6) m/7 = 0.102

P8) = P(7) m/8 = 0.063
'
I7
=
14
9
ANNIN&
P9) = P(8) m/9 = 0.035
I =5
P(10) =P(9) m/10 = 0.0173
10 2
P11) = P(10) m/11 = 0.0079
P(12) = P(11) m/12 = 0.0036 I1 1
I12 negligible, say 0
No. of vehicles
2 3 667 8 9 101
Observed values of
20 sec. intervals |4 13 23 26 24 14 20 6
with stated number 2 33
of vehicles (0)

Expected values of
20 sec. intervals
1 5 12 20 25 25 20 14 9 5 2 1
with stated number
of vehicles (E)

30F

---
Observeda
Expected

10

o 12 34 5
Number of vehicles 6 7 8 9
arriving in 20 sec10 11 12
intervals
Fig. 26.1
=y 0-E_4-6) (13-12
E
12
(23-20) (26-25
25)(24-252 (14- ( 1 4 - 2 0

20
25 25
20

-8

+ 20-14)2, 6-9,
14 9
 ARRIVALS, HEADWAYS AD
GAPS
555
= 0.67 + 0.08 + 0.45 + 0.04
+0.04 1.8
+ 2.57 +1.0
+0.13 6.78 =

INote Readings less than 5 are clubbed]

c Number of classes =
9
Degrees of freedom = 9 - 2 = 7 (see Table 8.16).

For a significance level of 5% and 7 degrees of freedom, x2 from Table 8.15

14.07.Since Xhs < X we conclude that the Poisson distribution is reasonably

obs
ikelyto
represent the observed distribution.
The results are plotted in Fig. 26.1.

265. Limitations of the Poisson Distribution

The Poisson distribution holds good only when the conditions of traffic
mentioned earlier are fulfilled. In particular, the flow should be light, and the
hehaviour of the vehicles should not be inhibited by other vehicles, or by the
EOmetry of the road. There should be no intersections nearby and the flow should
e free. No bunching of vehicles should occur.
It is rare that all the above conditions are fulfilled in traffic
situations,
specially on urban roads. To cope up with the complexities then arising, more
sophisticated distributions have to be resorted to. These are dealt with later.
When the traffic tends to be heavy and the presence of one car influences
other, the ratio of variance to the mean of observed data may be less than 1. Under
a pure Poissonian distribution this ratio should be equal to 1. In such cases, the
generalised Poisson distribution sometimes gives a good fit. The generalised
oisson distribution is
of the following form:
P(r) = K(r+1)-1i e ..(26.12)

e (arK+i-1
2 (rK +i-1)!
i = 1

For e 25 e-
example, for K =2, P(2) =

5!
4!
26.6.Gap and Headway
Distribution
Poisson distribution deals with the arrival rate of vehicles which is a
fuscrete
he arriv variable. This is s
is studied by the counting distribution technique and noting
HeChan a stated interval of time. The other technique indicated earlier in
apter is the
the gap distribution where in the gap in seconds (headway in
Conds) between
Ween successive vehicles is recorded.

Yis onThe
Son dis gap or
or headway distribution function can be directly derived from
tion function mentioned earlier. Thus,

Pr)= (At) e M

hen itfcan
ca in beParticular
particular interval of time t seconds, there is no arrival of a
con
r!
vehicle,
4Ve the previous vehicle (which must
passed ncluded
in tn
that the gap between
Che period prior to the beginning of the interval of time (t) and
556 TRAFFIC ENGINEERING AND TRANSEPORT PLANNING
the next vehicle which can only arrive after the expiry of the interyal
val of time (t
must be t seconds or more.

This implies that P(0) is the probability of a gap equal to

to or.
or greater
t seconds. than
Expression the above relationship in the language of probability

) e* e-t
Ph 2 t) = PO)=
0!
Isince (t)0 and 0! are both equal to 1]
In the above equations, h is the headway in seconds, which is alo .26.13)
the gap. called
The above equation is called the negative exponential
distribution the.
it is also called simply the 'exponential distribution'. Headways are
thus govem
by the exponential distribution curve, which unlike the counting distribution
a continuous function. This is so because t can assume n, is
any value between 0 and
infinity.
Extending Eq. (26.13) further, the probability of a headway being less than
t, PCh t), is given by:
Ph S t) = 1 - e -
In Eqs. (26.13) and (26.14) above, a
..26.14
can be substituted by the mean time
headway as follows
Mean time headway

and =

Ph 2 t) = e-t/) ..(26.15)
and Ph s t) =1- et/i) ..(26.16)

The mean time

and the total headway t is found by noting the number interva
period these
of intervals (T).
i =seconds.
A simple example will illustrate the use of these formulae.
Problem
vehicles
26.2. An
observation on a« count
of
200

in a
period of half an hour. Expressway yieldea an ay yielded in this
count: Calculate the number of eu ways

()greater than 4.5 seconds and

Solution. The (ii) less than 18 seconds.
mean time headway
1800 9 seconds
200
P(h 2 i) =
e-t/t)
P(h 2 4.5)
e.5
=
e4.59) =

of headways counted 0.6065

Total number =

Number of 200 1 =
199
headways greater than 4.5 seconds
=
199 x
0.6065 = 120
 ARRIVALS, HEADWAYS AD GAPS
VEHICLE
557
Plh s t) = 1 - e - /
Ph 18) = 1 -
e (18/9)
1 e =
=1- 0.1353
-
Number of headways less than 18 =0.8647
seconds 199
x0.8647 172 =
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
d
S 0.6
0.5 , where 1/9
0.4
an 0.3
4) 0.2
me 0.1
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
26 28 30
t (sec)
Fig. 26.2
15 The graphs of the two functions, Plh 2 t) e* =
And P(h t) =1 e- for the values given in the above
-
.16) n
figs. 26.2 and 26.3 example are given
respectively.
(N)
1.0
0.9
0.8
200 0.7
this 0.6
0.5 \ 1 - e ,where = 1/9
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
26 28 30
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
t (sec)
Fig. 26.3
 31. Irip Jeneration
Definitions
I n t r o d u c t i o n and
31.1. deals with surven
planning process ys,
the transportation
The first phase of is the analysis of the data 30
The next phase
and inventory. m a t h e m a t i c a l relationship that can
data collection
models to describe the
collected and building The analysis and
model building phase
behaviour.
be discerned in the trip-making Generation.
known as Trip
starts with the step commonly Transportation Planning
term used in the
Trip geneation is a general number of trip ends in a given area
Process to cover the field
of calculating the reasons behind
is to understand the
The objective of the trip generation stage mathematical relationships to
and to produce
the trip making behaviour trips, data
land-use
the basis of observed
synthesise the trip-making pattern
on
and household characteristics.
the various
Since a considerable confusion can occur in the meaning of
extact meaning
terms used in generation, it
trip is desirable to understand the
mechanised mode
of the various terms. A trip is a one-way person
movement by a
destination
(the start of the trip) and a
of transport, having two trip ends, origin
an
into home-based and non-home
(the end of the trip). Trips are usually divided
based. Home-based trips or those having one end
of the trip (either origin or
while non-home based
destination) at the home of the persons making the trip,
the tnp.
trips those having neither end at the home of the person making
are
is the
Thetrip ends are classified into generations and attractions. Ageneration
home end of any trip that has one end at the home (i.e., of a home-based trip),
and is the origin of a trip with neither end home based (i.e., of a non-home-base
trip). An attraction is the non-home end of a home-based tirip, and is tne
destination of a trip with neither end home-based (i.e., of a non-home-based trinp
The above definitions are further
classified by the following examples. Consider a
trip from home to work and the return trip from
Work
work to home, vide Fig. 31.1. Both these trips Home
are home-based, because one end of the trips is
the home. Both these trips are considered to
have been generated at the home zone and
attracted to the work zone. We thus have two trips.
Fig. 31.1. Home-based
work-purpose trip end generations in the home
zone and two work-purpose attractions in the work zone. Consider er anothe
e
anf
example of the trip from the place of work to shop and return to the pl
non
work, as is usual during the lunch recess, vide Fig. 31.2. Both these trips are.
aking
home-based, because neither end of the trip is the home of the person mat
the trip. Both these trips are considered to have been
generated at the work
616