Biology 111 L05

Survivorship in Pre 1900 and Post 2000 Populations

Landreth Baugh and Hannah Bollinger

October 20, 2009

A. The survival rate of the post-2000 population was always higher than that of the pre-1900

population (Fig. 1). The greatest differences in survivorship occurred between 40-49 and

80-89 years old (Fig. 1). The largest difference was in the 70-79 years range where the

survival rate of the post-2000 population was 77.26% and the pre-1900 population’s was

30.25% (Table 3, Table 2). These differences may have been caused by factors such as

disease control and technology. Before the 1900’s people knew less about how diseases

are spread (living in close quarters, coughing, etc.), making them more likely to become

ill, and die from illnesses, than the post-2000 population. Also, the post-2000 population

should have a higher survival rate due to the technological advances that the pre-1900

population didn’t have. Inventions, such as the defibrillator and the pacemaker, make it

more likely for older people to survive heart attacks.

B. According to the results the general level of survivorship is very close between the sexes.

In both pre 1900 and post 2000 eras, there is a type one population curve for both sexes

that only diverges later in the life cycle (Fig. 1). In the 1900 population both men and

women had equal chances for mortality and the line split near age 85 where males

experienced an exponential drop in population while females had a higher chance,

although small, of surviving (Fig. 1). In the post 2000 population the split between males

and females occurs earlier in the lifespan. Males experience a slightly higher death rate

than females around age 50 and this trend continues until the maximum age, which is
 about 90, where the lines meet each other again and both sexes experience equal death

rates (Fig. 1).

Both the pre 1900 and post 2000 populations have nearly equal life expectancy from birth

to around 10 years of age (Table 2, Table 3). However as time goes on the number of

individuals surviving until a certain age, (lx) lowered by a noticeable degree every few

years in the pre 1900s, while in the post 2000 years there was a very high percent

surviving in each interval (Table 2, Table 3). Advances in medical care in the post 2000

years have increased the average lifespan of humans by quite a few years. So while child

mortality was low for both periods, the medical care to keep people alive longer was not

as efficient in the 1900s and as a result death rates were higher than those of the post

2000 era. The data shows the mortality rate, (qx) for both females and males in the pre

1900s were rather imbalanced in terms of distribution (Table 2). Some age ranges such as

20-40 and 50-59, for females, and 20-30 for males, show a higher percentage of deaths

than other ranges (Table 2). This is contrary to the post 2000 data which shows an overall

increase in the number of death as time elapses (Table 3). This supports the claim that

healthcare was not as efficient in those times and the mortality rate fluctuated as a result.

C. One possible bias is that the cemetery may have contained primarily wealthy people.

Before 1900, poorer people who could not afford a grave or headstone were often placed

in pauper’s graves. These graves were usually left unmarked and wouldn’t be found in

most cemeteries. Even people who could afford a grave might not have had a headstone

nice enough to be legible today. The wealthier people, who had access to healthier food,

better medical care, and more sanitary environments, consequentially lived longer than

the poor. This would result in the pre-1900 population having an overestimated survival

rate.
Another possible bias could be the assumption that all the ages collected from both time

periods had the same ratio of races. In the study we are assuming that all of the

individuals have intermingled with mates of similar genetic makeup. There could have

possibly been lots of emigration and travel of the people in the last 100 years. The

people’s ever changing genetic makeup and different cultural practices could have lead to

a higher or lower survival rate. This bias would most likely affect qx because different

genetic factors contribute to the overall lifespan of an individual. One could

hypothetically say that the average lifespan of Gettysburg citizens increased over a

century because there was an equal proportion of a race. This would lead to an

overestimation of the survival rates because of assumed genetic traits such as resistance

to certain diseases or healthy lifestyle choices.

 Table 2 Pre-1900
Females Males
Age Lx Dx qx lx   Lx Dx qx lx
0-9 162 26 0.16 100   165 25 0.15 100
10-19 136 14 0.10 83.95   140 10 0.07 84.85
20-29 122 15 0.12 75.31   130 16 0.12 78.79
30-39 107 13 0.12 66.05   114 11 0.10 69.09
40-49 94 8 0.09 58.02   103 14 0.14 62.42
50-59 86 16 0.19 53.09   89 17 0.19 53.94
60-69 70 21 0.30 43.21   72 19 0.26 43.64
70-79 49 26 0.53 30.25   53 34 0.64 32.12
80-89 23 17 0.74 14.20   19 18 0.95 11.52
90-99 6 6 1 3.70   1 1 1 0.61
>100 0 0       0 0    

Table 3 Post-2000
Females Males
Age Lx Dx qx lx   Lx Dx qx lx
0-9 365 2 0.01 100   369 3 0.01 100
10-19 363 0 0
100
99.45   366 5 0.01 99.19
20-29 363 1 0.00 99.45   361 10 0.03 97.83
30-39 362 3 0.01 99.18   351 7 0.02 95.12
40-49 359 12 0.03 98.36   344 20 0.06 93.22
50-59 347 21 0.06 10
95.07   324 31 0.20 87.80
Percent Surviving

60-69 326 44 0.14 89.32   293 63 0.22 79.40

Pre 1900 Female
70-79 282 80 0.28 77.26   230 80 0.35 62.33
Pre 1900 Males
80-89 202 141 0.70 55.34   150 114 0.76 40.65
90-99 61 60 0.98 16.71
1   36 35 0.97 9.76
Post 2000 Females
>100 1 1 1 0.27   1 1 1 0.27 Post 2000 Males

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Age (Years)
Figure 1. Percent of surviving males and females in a pre-1900 population, in a cemetery in Adams County, PA,
and post-2000 human population, in the obituaries of the Gettysburg Times, in 10 year increments, for pre-1900
females n=162, for pre-1900 males n=165, for post-2000 females n=365, for post-2000 males n=369