Travel Demand and Traffic

Forecasting
RAZON C. DOMINGO
Travel demand and traffic forecasting is TRAVELER DECISIONS
a formidable problem because it
requires accurate regional economic
forecasts as well as accurate forecasts ❑ temporal decisions
of highway users’ social and behavioral
attitudes regarding trip-oriented ❑ destination decisions
decisions, in order to predict ❑ modal decisions
growth/decline trends and traffic
diversion. ❑ spatial or route decisions
 TRIP GENERATION
➢ Aggregation of decision-making units
➢Temporal aggregation
Typical Trip Generation Models
EXAMPLE 1: SHOPPING-TRIP GENERATION

A simple linear regression model is estimated for shopping-trip generation during a

shopping-trip peak hour. The model is

Number of peak-hour vehicle-based shopping trips per household = 0.12 +

0.09(household size) + 0.011(annual household income in thousands of dollars) −
0.15(employment in the household’s neighborhood, in hundreds)

A particular household has six members and an annual income of $50,000. They
currently live in a neighborhood with 450 retail employees, but are moving to a new
home in a neighborhood with 150 retail employees. Calculate the predicted number of
vehicle-based peak-hour shopping trips the household makes before and after the move.
SOLUTION TO EXAMPLE 1: SHOPPING-TRIP GENERATION

Before the household moves :

Number of vehicle trips = 0.12 + 0.09(6) + 0.011(50 ) − 0.15(4.5) = 0.535

After the household moves :

Number of vehicle trips = 0.12 + 0.09(6) + 0.011(50 ) − 0.15(1.5) = 0.985
EXAMPLE 2: SOCIAL/RECREATIONAL TRIP GENERATION

A model for social/recreational trip generation is estimated, with data collected during
a major holiday, as

Number of peak-hour vehicle-based social/recreational trips per household = 0.04 +

0.018(household size) + 0.009(annual household income in thousands of dollars)
+ 0.16(number of nonworking household members)

If the household described in Example 1 has one working member, how many peak-
hour social/recreational trips are predicted?
SOLUTION TO EXAMPLE 2: SOCIAL/RECREATIONAL TRIP
GENERATION

Number of vehicle trips = 0.04 + 0.018(6) + 0.009(50) + 0.16(5) = 1.398

 A neighborhood has 205 retail employees and 700
households that can be categorized into four types, with
each type having characteristics as follows:

EXAMPLE 3: TOTAL TRIP There are 100 type 1, 200 type 2, 350 type 3, and 50 type 4
GENERATION households. Assuming that shopping, social/recreational,
and work vehicle-based trips all peak at the same time (for
exposition purposes), determine the total number of peak-
hour trips (work, shopping, social/recreational) using the
generation models described in Examples 8.1 and 8.2.
Type Household Annual Number of Workers
size income nonworkers departing
in the peak
hour
1 2 $40,000 1 1
2 3 $50,000 2 1
3 3 $55,000 1 2
4 4 $40,000 3 1
 SOLUTION TO EXAMPLE 3: TOTAL TRIP GENERATION

For vehicle - based shopping trips :

Type1 : 0.12 + 0.09(2) + 0.011(40 ) − 0.15(2.05) = 0.4325 trips/household x 100 households = 43.25 trips
Type 2 : 0.12 + 0.09(3) + 0.011(50 ) − 0.15(2.05) = 0.6325 trips/household x 200 households = 126.5 trips
Type 3 : 0.12 + 0.09(3) + 0.011(55) − 0.15(2.05) = 0.6875 trips/household x 350 households = 240.625 trips
Type 4 : 0.12 + 0.09(4) + 0.011(40 ) − 0.15(2.05) = 0.6125 trips/household x 50 households = 30.625 trips
Total vehicle - based shopping trips = 441
For vehicle - based social/recreational trips :
Type1 : 0.04 + 0.018(2) + 0.009(40 ) + 0.16(1) = 0.596 trips/household x 100 households = 59.6 trips
Type 2 : 0.04 + 0.018(3) + 0.009 (50 ) + 0.16(2) = 0.864 trips/household x 200 households = 172.8 trips
Type 3 : 0.04 + 0.018(3) + 0.009 (55) + 0.16(1) = 0.749 trips/household x 350 households = 262.15 trips
Type 4 : 0.04 + 0.018(4) + 0.009(40 ) + 0.16(3) = 0.952 trips/household x 50 households = 47.6 trips
Total vehicle - based social/reccreational trips = 542.15
For vehicle - based work trip s :
Type1 :1 trips/household x 100 households = 100 trips
Type 2 :1 trips/household x 200 households = 200 trips
Type 3 : 2 trips/household x 350 households = 700 trips
Type 4 :1 trips/household x 50 households = 50 trips
Total vehicle - based shopping trips = 1050

Total peak - hour vehic le - based trips = 2033

MODE AND DESTINATION CHOICE
EXAMPLE 4: LOGIT MODEL OF WORK-MODE-CHOICE

A simple work-mode–choice model is estimated from data in a small urban area to determine
the probabilities of individual travelers selecting various modes. The mode choices include
automobile drive-alone (DL), automobile shared-ride (SR), and bus (B), and the utility functions
are estimated as

UDL = 2.2 − 0.2(costDL) − 0.03(travel timeDL)

USR = 0.8 − 0.2(costSR) − 0.03(travel timeSR)
UB = −0.2(costB) − 0.01(travel timeB)

where cost is in dollars and time is in minutes. Between a residential area and an industrial
complex, 4000 workers (generating vehicle-based trips) depart for work during the peak hour.
For all workers, the cost of driving an automobile is $6.00 with a travel time of 20 minutes, and
the bus fare is $1.00 with a travel time of 25 minutes. If the shared-ride option always consists
of two travelers sharing costs equally, how many workers will take each mode?
SOLUTION TO EXAMPLE 4: LOGIT MODEL OF WORK-MODE-CHOICE

U DL = 2.2 − 0.2(6) − 0.03(20 ) = 0.4

U SR = 0.8 − 0.2(3) − 0.03(20 ) = −0.4
U B = −0.2(1.0) − 0.01(25) = −0.45
e 0.4
PDL = 0.4 −0.04 −0.45
= 0.533 x 4000 = 2132
e +e +e
e −0.4
PSR = 0.4 −0.4 −0.45
= 0.239 x 4000 = 956
e +e +e
e −0.45
PB = 0.4 −0.4 −0.45
= 0.228 x 4000 = 912
e +e +e
EXAMPLE 5: FORECASTING MODE CHOICE WITH THE LOGIT MODEL

A bus company is making costly efforts in an attempt to increase work-trip bus usage
for the travel conditions described in Example 8.5. An exclusive bus lane is
constructed that reduces bus travel time to 10 minutes.

a. Determine the modal distribution of trips after the lane is constructed.

b. If shared-ride vehicles are also permitted to use the facility, and travel time for bus
and shared-ride modes is 10 min, determine the modal distribution.
c. Given the conditions described in part (b), determine the modal distribution if the
bus company offers free bus service.
 EXAMPLE 6: LOGIT MODEL
OF SHOPPING
MODE/DESTINATION
CHOICE
Consider a residential area
and two shopping centers that
are possible destinations.
From 7:00 to 8:00 P.M. on
Friday night, 900 vehicle-
based shopping trips leave the
residential area for the two
shopping centers. A joint
shopping-trip mode-
destination choice logit model If shopping center 2 has 400,000 ft2 of commercial floor
(choice of either auto or bus) space and shopping center 1 has 250,000 ft2, determine
is estimated, giving the the distribution of Friday night shopping trips by
following coefficients: destination and mode.
SOLUTION TO EXAMPLE 6: LOGIT MODEL OF SHOPPING
MODE/DESTINATION CHOICE

U A1 = 0.6 − 0.3(8) + 0.012 (250 ) = 1.2

U A2 = 0.6 − 0.3(15) + 0.012 (400 ) = 0.9
U B1 = −0.3(14 ) + 0.012 (250 ) = −1.2
U B 2 = −0.3(22 ) + 0.012(400 ) = −1.8
 e1.2
PA1 = 1.2 = 0.532 x 900 = 479 trips
e + e 0.9 + e −1.2 + e −1.8
e 0.9
PA2 = 1.2 = 0.394 x 900 = 355 trips
e + e 0.9 + e −1.2 + e −1.8
e −1.2
PB1 = 1.2 −1.2 −1.8
= 0.048 x 900 = 43 trips
e +e +e +e
0.9

e −1.8
PB 2 = 1.2 = 0.026 x 900 = 23 trips
e + e 0.9 + e −1.2 + e −1.8
HIGHWAY ROUTE CHOICE
Highway Performance Functions
User Equilibrium
The travel time between a specified origin and destination on all
used routes is the same and is less than or equal to the travel time
that would be experienced by a traveler on any unused route.
EXAMPLE 7: BASIC USER EQUILIBRIUM

Two routes connect a city and a suburb. During the peak-hour morning commute, a
total of 4500 vehicles travel from the suburb to the city. Route 1 has a 60-mi/h speed
limit and is six miles in length; route 2 is three miles in length with a 45-mi/h speed
limit. Studies show that the total travel time on route 1 increases two minutes for
every additional 500 vehicles added. Minutes of travel time on route 2 increase with
the square of the number of vehicles, expressed in thousands of vehicles per hour.
Determine user-equilibrium travel times.
SOLUTION TO EXAMPLE 7: BASIC USER EQUILIBRIUM

Free - flow travel times :

Route 1 : 6 mi / (60 mi/h ) x 60 min/h = 6 min
Route 2 : 3 mi/ (45 mi/h ) x 60 min/h = 4 min

Performance functions :
t1 = 6 + 4 x1
t 2 = 4 + x22
Where :
t1 , t 2 = average travel time on routes 1 and 2 in minutes
x1 , x2 = traffic flow on routes 1 and 2 in thousan ds of vehicle per hour

q = x1 + x2 = 4.5
q = total traffic flow between th e origin and destinatio n in thousan ds of vehicles per hour

1. Assume that all traffic flow is on route 1. Substituti ng traffic flows of 4.5 and 0 into the performance
functions gives t1 (4.5) = 24 min and t 2 (0) = 4 min.
2. Assume that all traffic flow is on route 2, giving t1 (0) = 6 min and t 2 (4.5) = 24.25 min.

Beacuse, t1 (4.5)  t 2 (0) and t 2 (4.5)  t1 (0), both routes will be used.
t1 = t 2
6 + 4 x1 = 4 + x22
x1 + x2 = 4.5
6 + 4(4.5 − x2 ) = 4 + x22
x2 = 2.899 or 2899 veh/h
x1 = 4.5 − 2.899 = 1.601 or 1601 veh/h
t1 = 6 + 4(1.601) = 12.4 min
t 2 = 4 + (2.899 ) = 12.4 min
2