Program Evaluation Self-learning

Review Technique Module 1

Prepared by:
Engr. Leselle C. Quitaneg
 Hence,the
Unlike to account
Critical Path
for
PERT: Definition Method whichin
uncertainties is the
a project
deterministic
duration, PERT
approach,
uses three
PERT estimates
time is a probabilistic
which are:
A management tool that is suited approach which is used in
for research and development
projects which are generally non- projects that are unusual.
repetitive in nature.
Three Time Estimates

Optimistic time, to
Probable longest
-is the estimated duration
minimum time that an Most likely time or
activity will take. probabilistic time,
tm Pessimistic time,
Probable shortest tp
duration
-is the estimated
normal length of time -is the estimated
an activity takes. maximum time that
will be required under
worst conditions.
Normal duration
 Immediate
Activity predecessor(s to tm tp te 2
)
Draw the network diagram. A
B
None
A
3
3
6
5
9
7
6
5
 
 
C A 4 7 12 7.33  
D B 4 8 10 7.67  
E C 5 10 16 10.17  
F D,E 3 4 5 4  
G D,E 3 6 8 5.83  
H F 4 6 10 6.33  

•   Solve for Expected time or

1. I
J
G
H, I
5
3
8
3
11
3
8
3
 
 
Weighted Mean using the
formula:
Given the table above, determine:
a. The probability of completing the project in 38 weeks or
less.
b. The probability of completing the project in 42 weeks or
Example: Activity A less.

=6
 Activity Immediate to tm tp te 2
Steps in solving the predecessor(s
)
probability of project A
B
None
A
3
3
6
5
9
7
6 
5 
 
 

completion: C
D
A
B
4
4
7
8
12
10
 7.33
 7.67
 
 
E C 5 10 16 10.17   
F D,E 3 4 5  4  
G D,E 3 6 8  5.83  
H F 4 6 10  6.33  

•   Solve for Expected time or

1. I
J
G
H, I
5
3
8
3
11
3
 8
 3
 
 
Weighted Mean using the
formula:
Given the table above, determine:
a. The probability of completing the project in 38 weeks or
less.
b. The probability of completing the project in 42 weeks or
Example: Activity A less.

=6
 Activity Immediate to tm tp te 2
Steps in solving the predecessor(s
)
probability of project A
B
None
A
3
3
6
5
9
7
6 
5 
1
0.44

completion: C
D
A
B
4
4
7
8
12
10
 7.33
 7.67
1.78
1
E C 5 10 16 10.17  3.36
F D,E 3 4 5  4 0.11
G D,E 3 6 8  5.83 0.69
H F 4 6 10  6.33 1

•  Solve for variance of each activity,

2. I
J
G
H, I
5
3
8
3
11
3
 8
 3
1
0

2 using the formula:

Example: Activity A

=1
 Activity Immediate to tm tp te 2
Steps in solving the predecessor(s
)
probability of project A
B
None
A
3
3
6
5
9
7
6 
5 
1 
 0.44

completion: C
D
A
B
4
4
7
8
12
10
 7.33
 7.67
 1.78
 1
E C 5 10 16 10.17   3.36
F D,E 3 4 5  4  0.11
G D,E 3 6 8  5.83  0.69
H F 4 6 10  6.33  1

•  Solve for variance of each activity,

2. I
J
G
H, I
5
3
8
3
11
3
 8
 3
 1
 0

2 using the formula:

Note:
Variance of each activity dictates the degree of
uncertainty, in this case, in terms of the duration.

That is Activity E has the greatest uncertainty and Activity

Example: Activity A J has the least uncertainty.

=1 Notice the durations set for E which are 5, 10 and 16 with

large increments of 5 and 6, respectively, thus a very high
uncertainty with a very high variance. Activity F on the
other hand has 3, 4 and 5 with 1 week increments.
Activity J is certain with equal to, tm and tp with a
variance of 0.
 Activity Immediate to tm tp te 2
Steps in solving the predecessor(s
)
probability of project A
B
None
A
3
3
6
5
9
7
6 
5 
1 
 0.44

completion: C
D
A
B
4
4
7
8
12
10
 7.33
 7.67
 1.78
 1
E C 5 10 16 10.17   3.36
F D,E 3 4 5  4  0.11
G D,E 3 6 8  5.83  0.69
H F 4 6 10  6.33  1
3. Draw the network diagram and I
J
G
H, I
5
3
8
3
11
3
 8
 3
 1
 0
indicate the te and 2 of each activity:

3 6
B 4 7.6 D F 1
.1 6.3 H
4
, 0. 7,
1 4,
0 3,
1
A 5 J
1 2 5 8 9
6,1 3, 0
7.3 C E
3 . 36 5.8 G I
3, 1
.7 8 0 . 17, 3, 0
.69 8, 1
4 1 7
 Steps in solving the PATH te path 2 path Z (38 weeks) Probability
(weeks)
probability of project
completion: A-B-D-F-H-J 32 3.55
A-B-D-G-I-J 35.5 4.13
A-C-E-F-H-J 36.83 7.25
4. Identify all the paths
and solve for te and 2 of A-C-E-G-I-J 40.33 7.83
each path:

3 6
B 4 7.6 D F 1
.1 6.3 H
4
, 0. 7,
1 4,
0 3,
1
A 5 J
1 2 5 8 9
6,1 3, 0
7.3 C E
3 . 36 5.8 G I
3, 1
.7 8 0 . 17, 3, 0
.69 8, 1
4 1 7
Example: Path A-B-D-F-H-J
te = 6+5+7.67+4+6.33+3 = 32 weeks
2 = 1+0.44+1+0.11+1+0 = 3.55
 PATH te path 2 path Z (in 38 Probability
Steps in solving the weeks)
(weeks)
probability of project
completion: A-B-D-F-H-J 32 3.55 3.18
A-B-D-G-I-J 35.5 4.13 1.23
A-C-E-F-H-J 36.83 7.25 0.43
•  Solve for z and
5.
A-C-E-G-I-J 40.33 7.83 -0.83
standard deviation () of
each path.

 Example: Path A-B-D-F-H-J

path=
  Specified time− Expected time
z=
σ 𝑝𝑎𝑡h To answer the probability of completing the
project in 38 weeks or less, the specified
 Note that standard time is 38 weeks which gives us:
deviation () is simply the
square root of the   = 3.18
variance.
  2
𝜎 𝑝𝑎𝑡h = √ 𝜎 𝑝𝑎𝑡h
Notice A-C-E-G-I-J with a variance of 7.83. That
is, the degree of uncertainty is high for this path.
Steps in solving the PATH te path 2 path Z (in 38 Probability
(weeks) weeks)
probability of project
completion: A-B-D-F-H-J 32 3.55 3.18
A-B-D-G-I-J 35.5 4.13 1.23
A-C-E-F-H-J 36.83 7.25 0.43
5. Using the table for normal
distribution, with the A-C-E-G-I-J 40.33 7.83 -0.83
computed z values, look for
the corresponding
probabilities:

Example: Path A-B-D-F-H-J

Z = 3.18
Since the maximum z-value in the table is 3.09,
with P = 0.9990, one can assume that the
probability of completing Path A-B-D-F-H-J with z
= 3.18 is equal to 0.999+. This means that the
probability is high but there is still room for
uncertainty and cannot be equated to 1 or 100%
probable.
 PATH te path 2 path Z (in 38 Probability
(weeks) weeks)

Steps in solving the A-B-D-F-H-J 32 3.55 3.18

probability of project A-B-D-G-I-J 35.5 4.13 1.23
completion: A-C-E-F-H-J 36.83 7.25 0.43
A-C-E-G-I-J 40.33 7.83 -0.83
Example: Path A-B-D-G-I-J
Z = 1.23
Look for 1.2 in the z-column then
continue horizontally until 0.03 is
reached in the z-row. Z-row

The intersection refers to the

Probability.
Thus if z = 1.23, P = 0.8907 or Z-column
89.07%.
Meaning, the probability of
completing path A-B-D-G-I-J is
89.07%.
Steps in solving the PATH te path 2 path Z (in 38 Probability
(weeks) weeks)
probability of project
completion: A-B-D-F-H-J 32 3.55 3.18 0.999+
A-B-D-G-I-J 35.5 4.13 1.23 0.8907
A-C-E-F-H-J 36.83 7.25 0.43 0.6664
The probabilities of each
path is shown in the table. A-C-E-G-I-J 40.33 7.83 -0.83 0.2033

Notice that z in path

A-C-E-G-I-J is -0.83.

0 +z
Shaded area shown is the probability if z = +0.83 and is equal to 0.7967 as per the
Table for Normal Distribution.
To get the probability of z = -0.83, subtract the probability of +0.83 from 1.
That is, P = 0.2033 for z = -0.83

+0.5 +0.83 +z
Example. What is the probability of z = -0.4. Answer P =0.3446.
 Steps in solving the PATH te path 2 path Z (in 38 Probability
(weeks) weeks)
probability of project
completion: A-B-D-F-H-J 32 3.55 3.18 0.999+
A-B-D-G-I-J 35.5 4.13 1.23 0.8907
A-C-E-F-H-J 36.83 7.25 0.43 0.6664
Is it because 20.33% is the A-C-E-G-I-J 40.33 7.83 -0.83 0.2033
smallest value? Or because it
is the critical path? The
answer will be explained Given the table above, determine:
later. a. The probability of completing the project in 38 weeks or
less.

The answer is 20.33%. Notice also that

the critical path is A-C-E-G-I-J
with 40.33 weeks expected time.
Steps in solving the PATH te path 2 path Z (42 weeks) Probability
(weeks)
probability of project
completion: A-B-D-F-H-J 32 3.55 5.30 0.999+
A-B-D-G-I-J 35.5 4.13 3.20 0.999+
A-C-E-F-H-J 36.83 7.25 1.92 0.9726
b. The probability of A-C-E-G-I-J 40.33 7.83 0.60 0.7257
completing the project in
42 weeks or less.

The answer is 72.57%.

Exercise 1.

PATH te path 2 path Z (22 days) Probability

Which path has the longest duration?
(days)
What is the probability that the
project will be completed in 22 days
or less?

2
A C

1 4
B D
3

Do not proceed to the next slide until you

finish answering this exercise.
Exercise 1.

PATH te path 2 path Z (22 days) Probability

Which path has the longest duration?
(days)
What is the probability that the
project will be completed in 22 days A-C 20 0.22 4.2640 0.999+
or less?
B-D 18 5 1.79 0.9633
2
A 11 10 C Notice that the longest path is A-C with 20 days and 99.99+
, 0. ,0
% probability.
10 .11
1 4 On the other hand, B-D has 18 days with a probability of
B D 96.33%.
10,
4 8, 1
3
Thus, the probability of completing the project is
96.33%.
 Exercise 1.

Therefore, the least value

PATH te path 2 path Z (22 days) Probability
will always dictate the
(days) probability of the project
A-C 20 0.22 4.2640 0.999+ completion regardless if it is
B-D 18 5 1.79 0.9633 the critical path or not.

Besides, the durations of

Notice that the longest path is A-C with 20 days and each activity are merely
99.99+% probability. estimates. Hence, the
On the other hand, B-D has 18 days with a probability of question still arises if it is
96.33%. the critical path or not.

Thus, the probability of completing the project is

96.33%.
Exercise 2.

A project has an expected completion time of 40 weeks and a standard

deviation of 5 weeks. It is assumed that the project completion time is
normally distributed.
a. What is the probability of finishing the project in 50 weeks or less?

b. What is the probability of finishing the project in 38 weeks or less?

c. The due date for the project is set so that there is a 90% chance that
the project will be finished by this date. What is the date?

Do not proceed to the next slide until you finish answering this exercise.
   Specified time− Expected time
Solution. z=
σ 𝑝𝑎𝑡h

•a.  = 2.0
P = 97.72%

b. = -0.4
P = 34.46%

c. For P = 90%, z = 1.28 (From the table)

, Specified Time = 46.4 weeks

Thank You!

For any questions,

you can find me at:
leselle.quitaneg@ue.edu.ph