Impact of climate change on the production of aquaculture shrimp

in 3 coastal districts in Ben Tre from 2010 – 2018

Name: LE HA PHUONG
Program: MPP
Keywords: Climate change, aquaculture, shrimp farming, production of aquaculture shrimp
1. Introduction
1.1. Research background
Aquaculture plays an important role in Vietnam economics, accounting for about 3.4% of Vietnam
GDP 2018 (GSO), in which 18.4% (Vietdata, 2019) is contributed by shrimp. However, this
industry is being significantly affected by climate change. Vietnam ranks 27th out of 33 countries
that have the most vulnerable economy to the impact of climate change on aquaculture. (Quach ,
2018).
Ben Tre is a province in the Mekong Delta where the shrimp farming in Vietnam develops the
most, and it is also the dominant industry here. One reason for the development of this industry here
is that there are few natural disasters, especially typhoon hardly occurred. However, from 2017 to
2018, Ben Tre was affected by 2 great, causing huge damage to economics and people. In addition,
Ben Tre is being threatened by salinity intrusion. According to the Ben Tre Hydrometeorological
Center, as of 04/02/2020, saltwater of 4‰ is likely to penetrate about 48-68 km from the river
mouths.
1.2. Research gaps
It is obvious that climate change has a negative impact on the production of aquaculture shrimp in
Ben Tre. However, most researches only use qualitative method to explain the effect of climate
change. For example, according to Buike, high temperature negatively affects the health of shrimp
since it causes a reduction of appetite. There are studies using quantitative to evaluate the impact of
climate change, but research location is not Ben Tre, and research subjects are not shrimp farming.
Besides, although Ben Tre is suffering from climate change, the production of shrimps is still rising.
The production of shrimp in Ben Tre in 2016 was 45,479 while the figure for 2017 was 57,776. In
2018, fishermen in Ben Tre cultivated about 63,125 tons of shrimp (GSO). The reason for this is
that there are many factors affecting the production of aquaculture shrimp such as the quality of
seeds, the infrastructure for shrimp farming, and actions of the government.
Therefore, this report will use updated data to evaluate the relationship between climate change and
the production of farming shrimp in Ben Tre instead of only explaining or proving data without
analysis.
2. Objective and Goal
2.1. Research Goal
This report is aimed to evaluate the effect of climate change on the production of farming shrimp in
3 coastal districts Ben Tre province and to recommend solutions to change those effects.
2.2. Research Objective
It is said that climate change has an adverse impact on the production of aquaculture shrimp. This
report will use data about the production aquaculture shrimp in 3 coastal districts Ben Tre province
from 2010 to 2018 and data about the damage of climate change including the number of typhoons,
temperature, rainfall, sea level, and salinity in order to figure out the correlation between them. For
example, if temperature increases 1%, what percent of the aquaculture shrimp production will be
lost. Econometric models will be applied to analyse this. Since from previous studies, besides
climate change, there are many other factors affecting the production of aquaculture shrimp, other
variables such as local government expenditure on risk reduction management will also be added to
models.
Although these natural disasters causing climate change cannot be prevented, it is possible to reduce
the damages of them on aquaculture by prepared activities from the government. Therefore, from
reviewing current policies and the findings of the analysis, some policy recommendations will be
delivered to decline those impacts.
2.3. Research questions
This report will answer 2 questions:
- How does climate change impact the production of aquaculture shrimp in 3 coastal districts Ben
Tre?
- What should the government do to reduce the negative impacts of climate change on the
production of aquaculture shrimp in Ben Tre?
3. Literature review
3.1. Current status of climate change in Ben Tre
WWF Viet Nam (2012), described the current status of climate change and indicated the trend of
climate change in 3 coastal districts in Ben Tre as below:
- Temperature: The average temperature is rising, and the maximum temperature is also increasing.
The temperature of coastal districts tends to higher than in other districts. The average temperature
in 2050 is expected to be 27.90C.
- Rainfall: Rainfall increased slightly. However, the rainy season is anticipated to begin later and
most rains will be at the end of the rainy season.
- Sea – level: The effect of sea – level rising to Ben Tre is obvious. It is predicted that in 2100, sea –
level will increase to 65 - 100 cm. 33% of the whole Ben Tre province will be completely
submerged.
- Salinity intrusion: Salinity in Ben Tre is worsening. In some places such as Binh Dai fishing port
(Binh Dai district), salinity even reaches to 26-29 ‰. It is forecasted that by 2050, salinity level in
all three coastal districts of Ben Tre province is 4 ‰, some parts will be covered by 20 ‰ salinity.
Vietnam government and local government in Ben Tre imposed many policies to tackle these
disasters, such as DECISION No. 2139/QD-TTg of December 5, 2011: Approving the national
strategy for climate change.
3.2. Literature on the impacts of climate change on the production of aquaculture shrimp in 3
coastal districts in Ben Tre.
Bui and Le (2015) conducted a study to indicate the impact of climate change on aquaculture in
Quang Nam province. This research focuses on a specific sector which is aquaculture, showing the
current status of climate change in Quang Nam, providing a lot of data to prove the negative impact
of those disasters, and also recommending some solutions to respond to climate change.
FAO (2018) evaluated the impacts of climate change on fisheries and aquaculture. This is a
comprehensive report, reviewing the biophysical effects of climate change on aquaculture in not
only short term but also long term, in a lot of regions and countries in the world.
However, both researches use qualitative method instead of quantitative method, did not carry out
in 3 coastal districts in Ben Tre, did not evaluate economics effects, did not show the correlation
between climate change and production of shrimps.
3.3. Model to analyze the impacts of climate change
Due to limited time, I have not found any model to evaluate the impacts of climate change yet.
4. Methodology and research framework
4.1. Research subjects
The subject of this report the effect of climate change on the aquaculture shrimp in Ben Tre
province.
4.2. Data
This report will use primary data and secondary data
- Primary data will be collected through survey on people farming shrimp. A survey will be
conducted to gain the information about expenditure of fishermen on prepared activities and solving
the impact of climate change, their spending on shrimp seed and feeds for shrimp, their income last
year. It is also crucial to know how they usually do to respond and mitigate natural disasters causing
climate change.
- Secondary data is gathered from Vietnam General Statistic Office, Ministry of Agriculture and
Rural Development, Vietnam Center of Hydro – Meteorological Data, and other reliable sources.
Data about the production aquaculture shrimp in 3 coastal districts in Ben Tre province from 2010
to 2018, local government’s expenditure prevention and recovery activities.
4.3. Method
This report applies qualitative and quantitative method, using primary data and secondary data
- Qualitative method: Carrying out surveys in 3 coastal districts in Ben Tre: Bình Dai district, Na
Tri district, and Thanh Phu district.
- Quantitative method: STATA will be used to analyse data. Model will be built by adjusting and
expanding models of previous relating researches.
5. Research plan
Time period Tasks Expected outcomes
- Acquiring general knowledge about this
Reading articles relating to climate
topic
2 months change and it impacts on aquaculture
- Finding suitable models to do
and shrimp farming
quantitative analysis
- Finding enough secondary data to
2 months Collecting data calculate
- Collecting survey (At least 300 surveys)
Finding a suitable model to handle the
0.5 months Building my own model
research problem
- Writing introduction, literature
1.5 months review, and methodology part Completing writing those parts
- Adjusting model if it is necessary
- Running trial model
- Adjusting model if it is necessary
Finding and fixing problems rising after
1 month - Reviewing current relating policies
running trial model
- Finding information to explain
estimated results
- Running final model
- Writing final report
2 months Completing the report
- Finding the policy implications and
recommendations
6. Budget
I estimated that the total budget to carry out this report is VND 14,800,000, including
- Coach ticket fee from Hanoi to Ben Tre: VND 800,000 (round way)
- Accommodation fee in Ben Tre: VND 1,500,000/30 days
- Daily living expenses (foods, commutation,..): 150,000/day x 30 day
- Presents for people doing surveys: VND 20,000/person x 300
- Purchasing secondary data: VND 2,000,000
Budget will be donated from VJU Academics and R&D Department.
References
Bui, S. T., & Le, A. V. (2015). Nghiên Cứu Ảnh Hưởng Của Biến Đổi Khí Hậu Đến Nuôi Trồng
Thủy Sản Ở Tỉnh Quảng Nam [Study the Impacts of Climate Change on Aquaculture in
Quang Nam Province]. Hue University College of Education Journal of Science and
Education, 04(36), pp 98 - 106.
Buike, P. (2018). Rainy Season Effects on Shrimp Grow-Out Ponds. Retrieved May 2020, from
Global Aquaculture Alliance: https://www.aquaculturealliance.org/advocate/rainy-season-
effects-on-shrimp-grow-out-ponds/
FAO. (2018). Impacts of climate change on fisheries and aquaculture: Synthesis of current
knowledge, adaptation and mitigation options. FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical
Paper No. 627. Rome, FAO. 628 pp.
Nguyen, N. Q. (2018). The Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters at Provincial Level of Vietnam:
2012-2016. Hanoi: Master's thesis, Vietnam National University.
Quach , N. T. (2018, September 20). Tác Động Của Biến Đổi Khí Hậu Đến Ngành Thủy Sản Việt
Nam [Impact of climate change on Vietnam aquaculture]. Retrieved May 18, 2020, from
Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers: http://vasep.com.vn/Tin-
Tuc/778_53097/Tac-dong-cua-bien-doi-khi-hau-den-nganh-thuy-san-Viet-Nam.htm
Vietdata. (2019). Tình Hình Ngành Thuỷ Sản Năm 2018 [Current status of aquaculture industry in
Vietnam 2018]. Retrieved from Vietdata: https://www.vietdata.vn/tinh-hinh-nganh-thuy-
san-nam-2018-835689043
WWF Viet Nam. (2012). Đánh Giá Nhanh Tổng Hợp Tính Tổn Thương và Khả Năng Thích Ứng
Với Biến Đổi Khí Hậu Tại Ba Huyện Ven Biển, Tỉnh Bến Tre [Quick assessment of
vulnerability and adaptive climate change in three coastal districts, Ben Tre province].
Website: https://www.gso.gov.vn/