FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

March 11, 2011

INTERVIEWS: DEAN DEBNAM 888-621-6988 / 919-880-4888 (serious media inquiries only please, other questions can be directed to Tom Jensen) QUESTIONS ABOUT THE POLL: TOM JENSEN 919-744-6312

Obama weaker in ME than in ’08 but still leads Republicans
Raleigh, N.C. – President Obama has maintained his standing in many swing states he won in 2008 better than he has in some heavily blue states, including Maine. But while he now looks weaker against three of his potential 2012 opponents than he did against John McCain, Maine and most traditionally blue states are so Democratic that he is set to win them by a healthy margin anyway. Mitt Romney is, as in his native Massachusetts, other New England states, and indeed most states, the president’s closest competitor, down 49-41. That is less than half Obama’s 17-point victory over McCain in the state, a margin only exceeded against Sarah Palin (57-35). Mike Huckabee trails, 51-39, and Newt Gingrich, 53-37. Obama has enormous leads with independents, who, though not as big a proportion of the electorate as in 2008, are still a sizeable quarter of voters. The president earns their support by margins of 17 (against Romney) to a whopping 35 points (versus Palin). He also earns more Republican support than any of the Republicans do Democratic votes against every candidate except Romney. While the president locks up 86-90% of his base, the Republicans can muster only 70% (Palin) to 80% (Romney) of theirs. As in many states, Republicans are still on the fence more than are Democrats, which suggests either room for improvement or a danger of these voters staying home, which was their problem in 2008 and Democrats’ last fall. 10% (with Huckabee as the nominee) to 14% (Gingrich) of the GOP are undecided, versus only 3-5% of Democrats. “What we’re finding in a lot of typically Democratic states that went even more Democratic than usual in 2008 is that things are sort of reverting to normal,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Obama will win them again, but the margins may be a little less lofty than last time around.” There is still some hangover from the historically Republican 2010 election in Maine, with Democrats only outnumbering Republicans in this electorate, 39-36, versus the 3526 margin reported by 2008’s exit polls. In PPP’s final survey of the state before the 2010 election, Republicans exceeded Democrats, 38-35. PPP surveyed 1,247 Maine voters from March 3rd to 6th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-2.8%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Public Policy Polling 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604 Phone: 888 621-6988 Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com Email: information@publicpolicypolling.com

Maine Survey Results
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 51% Disapprove...................................................... 44% Not sure .......................................................... 5%

Q8

If the candidates for President next year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 57% Sarah Palin ..................................................... 35% Undecided....................................................... 8%

Q2

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable .............. 28% Not sure ................ 17% Unfavorable........... 55%

Q9

If the candidates for President next year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 49% Mitt Romney.................................................... 41% Undecided....................................................... 10%

Q3

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable .............. 31% Not sure ................ 24% Unfavorable........... 45%

Q4

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin?
Favorable .............. 31% Not sure ................ 6% Unfavorable........... 64%

Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 11% Somewhat liberal ............................................ 20% Moderate......................................................... 30% Somewhat conservative.................................. 22% Very conservative ........................................... 17%

Q5

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mitt Romney?
Favorable .............. 34% Not sure ................ 21% Unfavorable........... 46%

Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ........................................................... 53% Man................................................................. 47%

Q6

If the candidates for President next year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 53% Newt Gingrich ................................................. 37% Undecided....................................................... 10%

Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 39% Republican...................................................... 36% Independent/Other .......................................... 26%

Q7

If the candidates for President next year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 51% Mike Huckabee ............................................... 39% Undecided....................................................... 9%

Q13 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White .............................................................. 95% Other............................................................... 5%

March 3-6, 2011
Survey of 1,247 Maine voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604 information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to 45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29........................................................... 6% 30 to 45........................................................... 30% 46 to 65........................................................... 44% Older than 65 .................................................. 20%

March 3-6, 2011
Survey of 1,247 Maine voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604 information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Crosstabs

Ideology Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very liberal Moderate conservative conservative Base liberal Obam a Approval Approve 51% Disapprove 44% Not sure 5% 88% 6% 5% 83% 13% 4% 64% 27% 9% 20% 75% 6% 5% 94% 1% Gingrich Favorability Favorable 28% Unfavorable 55% Not sure 17%

Ideology Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very liberal Moderate conservative conservative Base liberal

11% 82% 8%

6% 84% 10%

14% 64% 22%

51% 29% 21%

63% 19% 18%

Ideology Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Huckabee Favorability Favorable 31% Unfavorable 45% Not sure 24% 11% 74% 14% 8% 68% 24% 21% 50% 29% 50% 26% 24% 63% 15% 22% Palin Favorability Favorable 31% Unfavorable 64% Not sure 6%

Ideology Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative

6% 94% -

7% 90% 4%

16% 78% 6%

50% 42% 8%

77% 16% 7%

March 3-6, 2011
survey of 1,247 Maine voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604 information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Crosstabs

Ideology Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Rom ney Favorability Favorable 34% Unfavorable 46% Not sure 21% 12% 73% 15% 18% 63% 19% 34% 42% 25% 50% 30% 20% 43% 36% 21% Obam a/Gingrich Barack Obam a 53% New t Gingrich 37% Undecided 10%

Ideology Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative

92% 6% 2%

86% 8% 6%

67% 20% 13%

20% 66% 14%

5% 86% 10%

Ideology Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Obam a/Huckabee Barack Obam a 51% Mike Huckabee 39% Undecided 9% 92% 5% 3% 85% 8% 6% 66% 21% 14% 17% 70% 13% 3% 92% 5% Obam a/Palin Barack Obam a 57% Sarah Palin 35% Undecided 8%

Ideology Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative

94% 4% 2%

88% 9% 3%

73% 16% 11%

26% 61% 13%

4% 89% 7%

March 3-6, 2011
survey of 1,247 Maine voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604 information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Crosstabs

Ideology Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Obam a/Rom ney Barack Obam a 49% Mitt Rom ney 41% Undecided 10% 92% 5% 3% 83% 12% 5% 62% 26% 13% 14% 72% 14% 4% 87% 9%

Gender Base Wom an Obam a Approval Approve 51% Disapprove 44% Not sure 5% 53% 41% 6% 49% 47% 4% Man

Gender Base Wom an Gingrich Favorability Favorable 28% Unfavorable 55% Not sure 17% 25% 55% 21% 32% 55% 13% Man
Huckabee Favorability Favorable 31% Unfavorable 45% Not sure 24%

Gender Base Wom an Man

28% 43% 30%

34% 48% 18%

March 3-6, 2011
survey of 1,247 Maine voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604 information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Crosstabs

Gender Base Wom an Palin Favorability Favorable 31% Unfavorable 64% Not sure 6% 28% 66% 6% 34% 61% 4% Man Rom ney Favorability Favorable 34% Unfavorable 46% Not sure 21%

Gender Base Wom an Man

31% 42% 27%

36% 51% 13%

Gender Base Wom an Obam a/Gingrich Barack Obam a 53% New t Gingrich 37% Undecided 10% 55% 34% 12% 50% 41% 9% Man Obam a/Huckabee Barack Obam a 51% Mike Huckabee 39% Undecided 9%

Gender Base Wom an Man

54% 34% 11%

48% 45% 7%

March 3-6, 2011
survey of 1,247 Maine voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604 information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Crosstabs

Gender Base Wom an Obam a/Palin Barack Obam a 57% Sarah Palin 35% Undecided 8% 59% 31% 10% 54% 40% 6% Man Obam a/Rom ney Barack Obam a 49% Mitt Rom ney 41% Undecided 10%

Gender Base Wom an Man

51% 39% 10%

47% 44% 10%

Party Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other Obam a Approval Approve 51% Disapprove 44% Not sure 5% 84% 11% 4% 14% 80% 6% 53% 41% 6% Gingrich Favorability Favorable 28% Unfavorable 55% Not sure 17%

Party Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other

9% 78% 13%

55% 24% 21%

20% 62% 18%

March 3-6, 2011
survey of 1,247 Maine voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604 information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Crosstabs

Party Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other Huckabee Favorability Favorable 31% Unfavorable 45% Not sure 24% 13% 64% 23% 55% 23% 22% 23% 49% 28%

Party Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other Palin Favorability Favorable 31% Unfavorable 64% Not sure 6% 8% 89% 3% 61% 31% 8% 22% 72% 7%

Party Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other Rom ney Favorability Favorable 34% Unfavorable 46% Not sure 21% 19% 61% 20% 49% 29% 22% 34% 46% 20% Obam a/Gingrich Barack Obam a 53% New t Gingrich 37% Undecided 10%

Party Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other

88% 8% 4%

12% 75% 14%

58% 28% 14%

March 3-6, 2011
survey of 1,247 Maine voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604 information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Crosstabs

Party Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other Obam a/Huckabee Barack Obam a 51% Mike Huckabee 39% Undecided 9% 86% 9% 5% 13% 77% 10% 54% 32% 14% Obam a/Palin Barack Obam a 57% Sarah Palin 35% Undecided 8%

Party Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other

90% 8% 3%

17% 70% 13%

63% 28% 10%

Party Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other Obam a/Rom ney Barack Obam a 49% Mitt Rom ney 41% Undecided 10% 86% 10% 4% 9% 80% 12% 51% 34% 15%

Race Base White Other Obam a Approval Approve 51% Disapprove 44% Not sure 5% 51% 44% 6% 59% 39% 3%

March 3-6, 2011
survey of 1,247 Maine voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604 information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Crosstabs

Race Base White Other Gingrich Favorability Favorable 28% Unfavorable 55% Not sure 17% 27% 55% 17% 41% 48% 11%
Huckabee Favorability Favorable 31% Unfavorable 45% Not sure 24%

Race Base White Other

30% 45% 24%

36% 41% 23%

Race Base White Other Palin Favorability Favorable 31% Unfavorable 64% Not sure 6% 30% 64% 5% 35% 56% 9% Rom ney Favorability Favorable 34% Unfavorable 46% Not sure 21%

Race Base White Other

34% 46% 21%

27% 52% 21%

March 3-6, 2011
survey of 1,247 Maine voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604 information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Crosstabs

Race Base White Other Obam a/Gingrich Barack Obam a 53% New t Gingrich 37% Undecided 10% 53% 37% 10% 56% 39% 5% Obam a/Huckabee Barack Obam a 51% Mike Huckabee 39% Undecided 9%

Race Base White Other

51% 39% 9%

53% 38% 9%

Race Base White Other Obam a/Palin Barack Obam a 57% Sarah Palin 35% Undecided 8% 56% 35% 8% 57% 39% 3% Obam a/Rom ney Barack Obam a 49% Mitt Rom ney 41% Undecided 10%

Race Base White Other

49% 41% 10%

55% 38% 7%

March 3-6, 2011
survey of 1,247 Maine voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604 information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Crosstabs

Age Base Obam a Approval Approve 51% Disapprove 44% Not sure 5% 46% 49% 5% 46% 48% 5% 55% 40% 5% 51% 42% 6% 18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65 Gingrich Favorability Favorable 28% Unfavorable 55% Not sure 17% Base

Age 18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65

35% 41% 24%

30% 51% 20%

24% 61% 15%

34% 52% 15%

Age Base Huckabee Favorability Favorable 31% Unfavorable 45% Not sure 24% 43% 30% 27% 30% 43% 28% 29% 49% 22% 32% 45% 23% 18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65 Palin Favorability Favorable 31% Unfavorable 64% Not sure 6% Base

Age 18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65

41% 54% 5%

34% 63% 3%

28% 67% 6%

29% 62% 9%

March 3-6, 2011
survey of 1,247 Maine voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604 information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Crosstabs

Age Base Rom ney Favorability Favorable 34% Unfavorable 46% Not sure 21% 32% 38% 30% 31% 48% 21% 33% 49% 18% 40% 38% 22% 18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65 Obam a/Gingrich Barack Obam a 53% New t Gingrich 37% Undecided 10% Base

Age 18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65

51% 41% 8%

49% 40% 11%

57% 33% 10%

50% 39% 10%

Age Base Obam a/Huckabee Barack Obam a 51% Mike Huckabee 39% Undecided 9% 49% 46% 5% 46% 45% 9% 56% 34% 10% 50% 40% 10% 18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65 Obam a/Palin Barack Obam a 57% Sarah Palin 35% Undecided 8% Base

Age 18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65

49% 41% 11%

54% 39% 7%

60% 32% 8%

54% 36% 10%

March 3-6, 2011
survey of 1,247 Maine voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604 information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Crosstabs

Age Base Obam a/Rom ney Barack Obam a 49% Mitt Rom ney 41% Undecided 10% 46% 43% 11% 46% 44% 10% 53% 37% 10% 47% 45% 8% 18 to 30 to 46 to Older 29 45 65 than 65

March 3-6, 2011
survey of 1,247 Maine voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604 information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Sign up to vote on this title
UsefulNot useful