MS2401 Use of Statistics in Our Daily Life 4.

Assessment tasks/Activities
The course aims to familiarize students with the fundamental concepts of
Course Outline statistical thinking. As such, a variety of assessment tasks/activities will be used
to encourage statistical thinking and reasoning. These include short quizzes in
1. Course Information lectures, group discussions and participation in tutorial/computer laboratory,
group project, test and examination. Quiz and test are means to familiarize
Course Title Use of Statistics in Our Daily Life students with the various basic statistical concepts and techniques while the
Course Code MS2401 group project provides an opportunity for students to look into a real statistical
Semester Hours 3 problem in our daily life. Also, an end-of-semester close-book examination is
Prerequisite Nil required because a considerable portion of the statistical concept and thinking
Teaching Pattern Lecture/Cases/Discussions (26 hrs) cannot be covered by the quiz, test, and the group project.
Tutorial/Laboratory (13 hrs) Assessments
Pop quizzes in lectures (MC/short questions) 10%
Performance in tutorials 10%
2. Aim and Intended Learning Outcomes Group project (due on Friday of week 13, 27 November 2009) 20%
Test (week 7, 12 October 2009) 20%
Aim: Examination 40%
To familiarize students with 100%
• the fundamental ideas of statistical thinking;
• the applications of various basic statistical techniques to problems and issues
encountered in our daily life. 5. Syllabus

Intended Learning Outcomes: A. Collection of Data (Week 1 to Week 3)

• Understand what statistics can bring to deal with real-life problems in the
Use of Statistics, Population and Sample; Sampling methods and data collection
modern world methods. Type of data, Measurements; Index numbers
• Formulate statistical thinking/reasoning to solve real life problems
Question: Why is a sample needed? How to collect data?
• Apply various basic statistical techniques to analyze different types of data
Text book:
• Use statistical software (such as Excel, SPSS) to conduct basic statistical data
Chapter 1 Speaking of Statistics
analysis Chapter 2 Measurement in Statistics
Cases:
• Consumer Price Index, GDP and Gini Coefficient (Social and Economic
3. Teaching and Learning Activities: statistics)
• Horseshoe crab in Hong Kong (data collection; measurement variables;
By lectures, tutorials, computer labs and case studies:
• Emphasize statistical concept and reasoning through class discussions, class
odds ratio, logistic regression) sampling method (capture-recapture?)
quizzes (multiple choice and short questions). To divide the class into groups Environmental statistics
• Centa-City Index (Real Estate statistics) and Hang Seng Index (Stock
of five students and discussion questions will be given in each tutorial
• Encourage the use of statistical software, Excel and SPSS
market)

B. Representation of Data (Week 4 to Week 6)

Simple plot: Stem plot, stem-and-leaf; Histogram (Visual display of data)
Simple Measures (Summary statistics): mean, mode median (describing data)
Variation of data: dispersion, range, skewness, standard deviation, outliers
Normal distribution
Question: Why is variation important?
Text book:
Chapter 3 Visual Display of Data (Frequency tables, cumulative frequency,
picturing distribution of data, histograms and Stem-and-leaf plot, time series
plots
Chapter 4 Describing Data (Measures of average, shapes, measures of variation)
Chapter 5 A Normal World (The normal distribution, standard scores, the CLT-
just the concept)
Cases:
Long tail distribution
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Week 7: Mid-Term Test 6. Communication with students

Week 9: No lecture due to public holiday ☺ Many course documents can be downloaded from the website: Blackboard.
Students are encouraged to use the following channels to communicate with
C. Conversion of Data into Useful Knowledge and Information lecturer and tutor.
Part I (Week 8 to Week 11)
Probability in statistics; from samples to populations Lecturer : Ms Sally Tsang Tutor : Miss Joyce Choy
Question: How to confirm a hypothesis? Email : mssallyt@cityu.edu.hk Email : ckchoy@cityu.edu.hk
Text book: Tel. : 3442-8583 Tel. : 3442-8325
Chapter 6 Probability in Statistics (basics of probability, expected value, Office : P7622 Office : P7526
combining probabilities)
Chapter 9 Hypothesis Testing (Basic concept, probability of rare event,
examples) 7. Text Book
Cases:
Chance of Having Two Persons with the Same Birthday Bennett J O, Briggs W L and Triola M F, Statistical Reasoning for Everyday
Part II (Week 11 to Week 13) Life, 3rd Edition, Addison Wesley, 2008.
Scatter diagrams; linear relationship, simple regression, correlation and
causation As we will follow the text book closely and assign required readings and tutorial
Association and Relationship and forecasting (Correlation and Causality) exercises from this text book, students are strongly encouraged to purchase the
1. Relationship between continuous variables textbook from bookstore.
2. Relationship between categorical variables (odds ratios, testing association
between categorical data) Reading list of sections
Text book: Chapter 1 Sections 1.1 & 1.2 (Page 1-21)
Chapter 7 Correlation and Causality (scatter diagrams, correlation, best fit line Chapter 2 Sections 2.1, 2.2, 2.3, 2.4 and Focus on Economics (Page 53-88)
and prediction, finding equations for best fit lines and r (use of Excel and SPSS). Chapter 3 Sections 3.1, 3.2 and Focus on Environment (Page 89-112, 140-143)
Chapter 10 Relationship between Categorical Variables Chapter 4 Sections 4.1, 4.2, 4.3 and Focus on Economics (Page 145-177, 191-193)
Cases: Chapter 5 Sections 5.1, 5.2, 5.3 (Page 195-225)
• Olympic Medals (held in Beijing on 8 August 2008): data collection Chapter 6 Sections 6.1, 6.2, 6.3, 6.5 and Focus on Law (Page 233-259, 267-278, 282-284)
methods; sample or population? Graphical presentation – linear Chapter 7 Sections 7.1, 7.2, 7.3 (Page 285-315)
relationship; simple linear regression model Chapter 9 Sections 9.1 (Page 369-379)
• Horseshoe crab in Hong Kong (logistic regression) Chapter 10 Section 10.2 (Page 417-428)

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8. Group Project or magazine or news paper, date (in the case of newspaper or magazine) volume
number (in the case of a journal), publisher and place of publication, website
Aim: address and the date of access (in the case of website access).
To provide an opportunity for students to look into a real statistical problem in
our daily life. A grade from A+ to D will be awarded to a group project based on the standard
achieved by the individual group project (not based on the normal curve). The
Description: assessment criteria grid for grading the project is included in next page.
Each group of five students could choose to do any one of the following tasks as
a group project: Schedule:
Deadline
a. A study of a new approach/technique using statistics by searching the 1. To form groups of five Wk 1
Internet, published articles, books, trade publications (e.g. Biometrics – To
describe the new technique; why, where and how the new technique is used; 2. Choose a topic and prepare a brief proposal Wk 6
how and why statistics is used in the new technique) for the project.
b. A case study of a real-life phenomenon/event/campaign in Hong Kong that The one-page proposal should include a brief introduction
is related to the use of statistics (e.g. Money Reward Scheme by ParknShop / background of the topic and method of conducting the project.
– to describe the case, why and how it is used and why and how statistics is
used in the phenomenon/event/campaign – may need to interview some 3. Final report (at most 10 pages in the main body) Wk 13
people) It should include: Introduction/Background; Problem
c. A study of an important social-economic index/rate based on published formulation; Statistical technique used; Method of data
articles, books, websites (e.g. Hong Kong Population Growth Rate, Hong collection and data file; Findings; Conclusion.
Kong Overall Crime Rate, Unemployment Rate – to describe the index/rate,
why and how it is constructed, how to use the index/rate and the time series
of the index/rate, some discussions on the prediction of the index/rate are Criterion A+ A B C D
welcome) Introduction Shows a polished Carefully and logically Shows organization Shows some attempt Disorganized and
and and imaginative organized; language and coherence; to organize in a incoherent; meaning
d. A study on Economic Changes of External Trade in Hong Kong (rapid presentation approach to the fluent; can communicate language mainly logical manner; unclear;
growth of trade in goods (outward processing trade, offshore trade) and trade (20%) topic; fluent writing effectively in a clear and fluent; can language OK but not communication
in services) style ; shown full concise manner with communicate always fluent; some unstructured
e. A study on Low Fertility Rate in Hong Kong (social changes in population) understanding of the relevant information in a effectively in a clear communications are
f. A study on the five year performance (2003-2008) of any one of the topic in a variety of formats manner effective
professional manner
following companies based on its year books:
Main body Material is Material is carefully Material included is Material is relevant
Not all material is
PCCW, Kowloon Motor Bus, Hong Kong Bank, MTRC, etc (to briefly (60%) imaginatively structured with clear relevant to the topic but lacks structure
relevant and/or is
describe the history of the company, to use basic statistical techniques, presented; rich and message and visual and has been with limited
presented in a
summary statistics and visual display of data to analyze and present the five appropriate use of effect; appropriate and structured with explanations and
disorganized manner.
year data obtained from the year books. Some discussions of the prediction statistical concepts, sufficient use of sufficient visual effect;
Some material is
of the performance of the company in the coming year are welcome) techniques, summary statistical concepts, explanations and appropriate use of
difficult to understand
statistics and visual techniques and summary visual effect; some statistical
due to poor or no
g. A study on the application of Data Mining Techniques (recently, there have effects; efficient and statistics; sufficient use adequate and concepts, techniques
explanations/visual
been many successful data mining applications in various fields. For innovative use of of relevant information appropriate use of and summary
aids; inadequate and
example, VantagePoint (http://tradingeducation.com/software.asp) claims relevant information statistical concepts, statistics; adequate
inappropriate use of
that their neural network model provides market price trend forecast with up techniques and use of relevant
some statistical
to 80% accuracy. Go to the web site www.kdnuggets.com or other websites. summary statistics information
concepts, techniques
and relevant and summary statistics;
Locate an article or a piece of news about how data mining has been applied information inadequate use of
to solve real world problems. You are required to describe the problem, the relevant information
data mining techniques used, how successful and useful this application is) Conclusions Analytical and clear Good development Evidence of findings Limited evidence of Unsubstantiated/invalid
h. Propose your own group project. (20%) conclusions well shown in summary of and conclusions findings and conclusions;
grounded in the main argument based on the grounded in the main conclusions supported understanding of the
body; sharp and keen main body; rich and body; observations by the main body; topic not apparent and
The class of MS2401 will form groups of 5 students each. Each group will observations and appropriate observations and views are some observations lacks a logical and
choose a topic. The final product of the group project should be in the form of a innovative views and conclusions appropriate and and views are coherent conclusion;
final report. The final report is limited to 10 pages including an showing full demonstrate adequate appropriate but inadequate observations
introduction/background, the main body and a conclusion discussing your understanding of the understanding of the insufficient and views for the
team’s views and observations on the topic. Correct references are most essential topic topic conclusion
of all materials used in the preparation of the report. References should indicate:
authors’ name, year of publication, page numbers, name of the journal or book
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