MS2401 Use of Statistics in Our Daily Life

Course Outline

1. Course Information

Course Title Use of Statistics in Our Daily Life

Course Code MS2401
Semester Hours 3
Prerequisite Nil
Teaching Pattern Lecture/Cases/Discussions (26 hrs)
Tutorial/Laboratory (13 hrs)

2. Aim and Intended Learning Outcomes

Aim:
To familiarize students with
 the fundamental ideas of statistical thinking;
 the applications of various basic statistical techniques to problems and issues
encountered in our daily life.

Intended Learning Outcomes:

 Understand what statistics can bring to deal with real-life problems in the
modern world
 Formulate statistical thinking/reasoning to solve real life problems
 Apply various basic statistical techniques to analyze different types of data
 Use statistical software (such as Excel, SPSS) to conduct basic statistical data
analysis

3. Teaching and Learning Activities:

By lectures, tutorials, computer labs and case studies:
 Emphasize statistical concept and reasoning through class discussions, class
quizzes (multiple choice and short questions). To divide the class into groups
of five students and discussion questions will be given in each tutorial
 Encourage the use of statistical software, Excel and SPSS

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4. Assessment tasks/Activities
The course aims to familiarize students with the fundamental concepts of
statistical thinking. As such, a variety of assessment tasks/activities will be used
to encourage statistical thinking and reasoning. These include short quizzes in
lectures, group discussions and participation in tutorial/computer laboratory,
group project, test and examination. Quiz and test are means to familiarize
students with the various basic statistical concepts and techniques while the
group project provides an opportunity for students to look into a real statistical
problem in our daily life. Also, an end-of-semester close-book examination is
required because a considerable portion of the statistical concept and thinking
cannot be covered by the quiz, test, and the group project.
Assessments
Pop quizzes in lectures (MC/short questions) 10%
Performance in tutorials 10%
Group project (due on Friday of week 13, 27 November 2009) 20%
Test (week 7, 12 October 2009) 20%
Examination 40%
100%

5. Syllabus

A. Collection of Data (Week 1 to Week 3)

Use of Statistics, Population and Sample; Sampling methods and data collection
methods. Type of data, Measurements; Index numbers
Question: Why is a sample needed? How to collect data?
Text book:
Chapter 1 Speaking of Statistics
Chapter 2 Measurement in Statistics
Cases:
 Consumer Price Index, GDP and Gini Coefficient (Social and Economic
statistics)
 Horseshoe crab in Hong Kong (data collection; measurement variables;
odds ratio, logistic regression) sampling method (capture-recapture?)
Environmental statistics
 Centa-City Index (Real Estate statistics) and Hang Seng Index (Stock
market)

B. Representation of Data (Week 4 to Week 6)

Simple plot: Stem plot, stem-and-leaf; Histogram (Visual display of data)
Simple Measures (Summary statistics): mean, mode median (describing data)
Variation of data: dispersion, range, skewness, standard deviation, outliers
Normal distribution
Question: Why is variation important?
Text book:
Chapter 3 Visual Display of Data (Frequency tables, cumulative frequency,
picturing distribution of data, histograms and Stem-and-leaf plot, time series
plots
Chapter 4 Describing Data (Measures of average, shapes, measures of variation)
Chapter 5 A Normal World (The normal distribution, standard scores, the CLT-
just the concept)
Cases:
Long tail distribution
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Week 7: Mid-Term Test

Week 9: No lecture due to public holiday 

C. Conversion of Data into Useful Knowledge and Information

Part I (Week 8 to Week 11)
Probability in statistics; from samples to populations
Question: How to confirm a hypothesis?
Text book:
Chapter 6 Probability in Statistics (basics of probability, expected value,
combining probabilities)
Chapter 9 Hypothesis Testing (Basic concept, probability of rare event,
examples)
Cases:
Chance of Having Two Persons with the Same Birthday
Part II (Week 11 to Week 13)
Scatter diagrams; linear relationship, simple regression, correlation and
causation
Association and Relationship and forecasting (Correlation and Causality)
1. Relationship between continuous variables
2. Relationship between categorical variables (odds ratios, testing association
between categorical data)
Text book:
Chapter 7 Correlation and Causality (scatter diagrams, correlation, best fit line
and prediction, finding equations for best fit lines and r (use of Excel and SPSS).
Chapter 10 Relationship between Categorical Variables
Cases:
 Olympic Medals (held in Beijing on 8 August 2008): data collection
methods; sample or population? Graphical presentation – linear
relationship; simple linear regression model
 Horseshoe crab in Hong Kong (logistic regression)

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6. Communication with students

Many course documents can be downloaded from the website: Blackboard.

Students are encouraged to use the following channels to communicate with
lecturer and tutor.

Lecturer : Ms Sally Tsang Tutor : Miss Joyce Choy

Email : mssallyt@cityu.edu.hk Email : ckchoy@cityu.edu.hk
Tel. : 3442-8583 Tel. : 2788-8325
Office : P7622 Office : P7526

7. Text Book

Bennett J O, Briggs W L and Triola M F, Statistical Reasoning for Everyday

Life, 3rd Edition, Addison Wesley, 2008.

As we will follow the text book closely and assign required readings and tutorial
exercises from this text book, students are strongly encouraged to purchase the
textbook from bookstore.

Reading list of sections

Chapter 1 Sections 1.1 & 1.2 (Page 1-21)
Chapter 2 Sections 2.1, 2.2, 2.3, 2.4 and Focus on Economics (Page 53-88)
Chapter 3 Sections 3.1, 3.2 and Focus on Environment (Page 89-112, 140-143)
Chapter 4 Sections 4.1, 4.2, 4.3 and Focus on Economics (Page 145-177, 191-193)
Chapter 5 Sections 5.1, 5.2, 5.3 (Page 195-225)
Chapter 6 Sections 6.1, 6.2, 6.3, 6.5 and Focus on Law (Page 233-259, 267-278, 282-284)
Chapter 7 Sections 7.1, 7.2, 7.3 (Page 285-315)
Chapter 9 Sections 9.1 (Page 369-379)
Chapter 10 Section 10.2 (Page 417-428)

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8. Group Project

Aim:
To provide an opportunity for students to look into a real statistical problem in
our daily life.

Description:
Each group of five students could choose to do any one of the following tasks as
a group project:

a. A study of a new approach/technique using statistics by searching the

Internet, published articles, books, trade publications (e.g. Biometrics – To
describe the new technique; why, where and how the new technique is used;
how and why statistics is used in the new technique)
b. A case study of a real-life phenomenon/event/campaign in Hong Kong that
is related to the use of statistics (e.g. Money Reward Scheme by ParknShop
– to describe the case, why and how it is used and why and how statistics is
used in the phenomenon/event/campaign – may need to interview some
people)
c. A study of an important social-economic index/rate based on published
articles, books, websites (e.g. Hong Kong Population Growth Rate, Hong
Kong Overall Crime Rate, Unemployment Rate – to describe the index/rate,
why and how it is constructed, how to use the index/rate and the time series
of the index/rate, some discussions on the prediction of the index/rate are
welcome)
d. A study on Economic Changes of External Trade in Hong Kong (rapid
growth of trade in goods (outward processing trade, offshore trade) and trade
in services)
e. A study on Low Fertility Rate in Hong Kong (social changes in population)
f. A study on the five year performance (2003-2008) of any one of the
following companies based on its year books:
PCCW, Kowloon Motor Bus, Hong Kong Bank, MTRC, etc (to briefly
describe the history of the company, to use basic statistical techniques,
summary statistics and visual display of data to analyze and present the five
year data obtained from the year books. Some discussions of the prediction
of the performance of the company in the coming year are welcome)
g. A study on the application of Data Mining Techniques (recently, there have
been many successful data mining applications in various fields. For
example, VantagePoint (http://tradingeducation.com/software.asp) claims
that their neural network model provides market price trend forecast with up
to 80% accuracy. Go to the web site www.kdnuggets.com or other websites.
Locate an article or a piece of news about how data mining has been applied
to solve real world problems. You are required to describe the problem, the
data mining techniques used, how successful and useful this application is)
h. Propose your own group project.

The class of MS2401 will form groups of 5 students each. Each group will
choose a topic. The final product of the group project should be in the form of a
final report. The final report is limited to 10 pages including an
introduction/background, the main body and a conclusion discussing your
team’s views and observations on the topic. Correct references are most essential
of all materials used in the preparation of the report. References should indicate:
authors’ name, year of publication, page numbers, name of the journal or book
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 or magazine or news paper, date (in the case of newspaper or magazine) volume
number (in the case of a journal), publisher and place of publication, website
address and the date of access (in the case of website access).

A grade from A+ to D will be awarded to a group project based on the standard

achieved by the individual group project (not based on the normal curve). The
assessment criteria grid for grading the project is included in next page.

Schedule:
Deadline
1. To form groups of five Wk 1

2. Choose a topic and prepare a brief proposal Wk 6

for the project.
The one-page proposal should include a brief introduction
/ background of the topic and method of conducting the project.

3. Final report (at most 10 pages in the main body) Wk 13

It should include: Introduction/Background; Problem
formulation; Statistical technique used; Method of data
collection and data file; Findings; Conclusion.

Criterion A+ A B C D
Introduction Shows a polished andCarefully and logically Shows organization Shows some attempt Disorganized and
and imaginative approach organized; language and coherence; to organize in a incoherent; meaning
presentation to the topic; fluent fluent; can communicate language mainly logical manner; unclear; communication
(20%) writing style ; shown effectively in a clear and fluent; can language OK but not unstructured
full understanding of concise manner with communicate always fluent; some
the topic in a relevant information in a effectively in a clear communications are
professional manner variety of formats manner effective
Main body Material is Material is carefully Material included is Material is relevant
Not all material is
(60%) imaginatively structured with clear relevant to the topic but lacks structure
relevant and/or is
presented; rich and message and visual and has been with limited
presented in a
appropriate use of effect; appropriate and structured with explanations and
disorganized manner.
statistical concepts, sufficient use of sufficient visual effect;
Some material is
techniques, summary statistical concepts, explanations and appropriate use of
difficult to understand
statistics and visual techniques and summary visual effect; some statistical
due to poor or no
effects; efficient and statistics; sufficient use adequate and concepts, techniques
explanations/visual
innovative use of of relevant information appropriate use of and summary
aids; inadequate and
relevant information statistical concepts, statistics; adequate
inappropriate use of
techniques and use of relevant
some statistical
summary statistics information
concepts, techniques
and relevant and summary statistics;
information inadequate use of
relevant information
Conclusions Analytical and clear Good development Evidence of findings Limited evidence of Unsubstantiated/invalid
(20%) conclusions well shown in summary of and conclusions findings and conclusions;
grounded in the main argument based on the grounded in the main conclusions supported understanding of the
body; sharp and keen main body; rich and body; observations by the main body; topic not apparent and
observations and appropriate observations and views are some observations lacks a logical and
innovative views and conclusions appropriate and and views are coherent conclusion;
showing full demonstrate adequate appropriate but inadequate observations
understanding of the understanding of the insufficient and views for the
topic topic conclusion