FIVE-POINT GUIDE TO

A THEORY OF CHANGE
1 What is a theory of change?
• It explains the changes you hope to bring about • Should be transparent, logical and accessible.
(outcomes) for your beneficiaries and how you
• Often expressed as a diagram.
intend to do this (activities).

2 What does it look like?

INPUTS ACTIVITIES OUTPUTS OUTCOMES

(e.g. staff time, (e.g. creative (e.g. number of (e.g. young person’s
beneficiaries, writing workshops young people writing skills
workshop with young worked with, improve,increased
materials, people) number of interest in
volunteers) workshops literature, increased
delivered) self confidence)

MISSION
See next page for template!

3 Why is it important?
• Articulates what you hope to achieve and how.
• Helps identify assumptions in your activities.
• Forms a basis for claims around attribution of
outcomes.
• Determines what changes need to be measured.
• Identifies/hypothesises a rationale for causality.
• The logic will appeal to your funders and help in
their funding decisions.

4 The process

Keep it simple Acknowledge limitations and complexities

Use existing Get a wide range of stakeholders involved

Run a workshop
evidence (trustees, staff, volunteers, beneficiaries)

It’s a work in progress – should be updated to reflect practical experience and new evidence

Refining
5

• Separating outcomes: short, medium, long term. • Making clear any unverified assumptions.
• What outcomes will you measure? How? • Connecting activities & outcomes to existing
(academic evidence).

www.artsimpactfund.org @artsimpactfund
 EXAMPLE THEORY OF CHANGE
STATEMENT(S) MISSION
• Youth offenders lack opportunities to engage with drama as a • Improve life chances of young people
means to improve their soft skills through theatre
• Absence of theatre provision in the local area

OUTCOMES
Activities Outputs Short term Medium term Long term
• Drama workshops • 1 workshop per week • Greater sense of • Improved levels of • Re-engagement
aimed at young routine for self-confidence with formal
• End of term
people that have beneficiaries education provision
production • Development of
been through the or employment
• Fewer exclusions empathy related
justice system • Beneficiary
amongst participants behaviours
self-evaluation
• Mentoring
programme – • 1 mentoring session
beneficiaries of the per week
above programme go
into schools to
engage younger
people at the risk of
exclusion in drama

KEY ASSUMPTIONS AREAS FOR DEVELOPMENT

• Drama workshops contribute to development of self-confidence and • Identifying rigorous evidence base for social outcomes associated with
empathy drama workshops
• Re-engagement with formal education provision can be linked to drama • Identifying longer term outcomes for mentoring programme
workshops (attribution)
• Exclusion can be linked to success of mentoring programme (attribution)

www.artsimpactfund.org @artsimpactfund
 THEORY OF CHANGE - TEMPLATE
(This can be completed in the pdf)

STATEMENT(S) MISSION

OUTCOMES
Activities Outputs Short term Medium term Long term

KEY ASSUMPTIONS AREAS FOR DEVELOPMENT

www.artsimpactfund.org @artsimpactfund