GABUNGAN

[ME4045] Perubahan Iklim B
Dr. Edi Riawan

Prodi Meteorologi-ITB
6/1/2021
Elements of the Climate System
• The atmosphere
• The ocean
• The cryosphere
• The geosphere
• The biosphere
There are interactions between these
sub-systems
All these sub-systems are represented
in modern
Earth6/1/2021
System Models
Perubahan Iklim
Iklim
Iklim adalah pola dari cuaca: rata-
rata, ekstrem, waktu dan
distribusi dari:
• Panas & dingin
• Berawan dan cerah
• Lembab dan kering
• Grimis dan hujan deras
• Salju
• Badai, tornado, dan topan
Perubahan Iklim
Perubahan Iklim adalah
perubahan pola
6/1/2021
Presentasi Pak Zadrah
(41) Webinar FITB #2 "Perubahan Iklim" - YouTube
6/1/2021
Battle Begins Watch online full movie -
Documentary Mania
1
3
2
6/1/2021
https://www.meted.ucar.edu/climate/climwaterpart1/
6/1/2021
https://www.meted.ucar.edu/broadcastmet/climate/
6/1/2021
https://www.meted.ucar.edu/climate/climwaterpart2/
6/1/2021
https://www.meted.ucar.edu/USBR/water_climate/
6/1/2021
https://www.meted.ucar.edu/climate/communicating_clim_change_hartmann/
6/1/2021
PERUBAHAN IKLIM B
Kuliah # 1
Atmosphere Composition
and Structure
Earth Radiation Budget
Sumber: www.atmo.Arizona.edu
dan bergaisumber lain
PERUBAHAN IKLIM B
Kuliah # 1
Atmosphere Composition
and Structure
Definisi Umum
• Meteorologi : Ilmu yang mempelajari atmosfer
dengan berbagai fenomena di dalamnya,
terutama yang terkait dengan proses-proses
cuaca dan iklim.
• Klimatologi : Ilmu yang mempelajari iklim dan
perubahannya terhadap waktu
• Cuaca : keadaan atmosfer yang pengaruhnya
dapat dirasakan saat ini  parameter cuaca :
temperatur, tekanan udara, kecepatan angin,
curah hujan, dsb.
• Iklim : kondisi rata-rata atmosfer dalam jangka
panjang; merupakan hasil interaksi seluruh
komponen Bumi (atmosfer, hidrosfer, biosfer,
humanosfer, litosfer dan kriosfer)
• Perubahan Iklim: perubahan kondisi rata-rata
cuaca, perubahan distribusis statistik pola cuaca
Earth’s Early Atmosphere
• 5 Billion years ago when Earth formed, atmosphere consisted of mostly H2 , He
as well as some NH3 , and CH4.
• Free H2 and He molecules have low molecular weight (so move very fast), and
were able to escape Earth’s gravitational pull.
• Volcanoes spewed large amounts of H2O, CO2 as well as lesser amounts of N2
(outgassing)
• Clouds rained forming oceans, which dissolved much of CO2 locking it in
sedimentary rocks through chemical and biological processes (e.g., seashell
formation) allowing concentrations of N2 to increase.
• O2 increased through phododissociation of H2O into H2 and O2—the H2
escaped.
• Life formed, plants grew adding additional O2 through photosynthesis leading
to today’s atmosphere.
100 km 100 km
C = 2pa
 4.084 x 104 km a  6500 km
Ratio: Height/ Length is 100/(4.084 x 104)

 2.45 x 10-3
- height of the atmosphere is extremely
small compared with its length
air motions are primarily horizontal.
air motions are primarily horizontal
very small vertical motions are very important,
e.g., they causing the development/inhibition of clouds.
Composition of the atmosphere
1. Permanent gases
2. Variable gases
3. Aerosols
1. Permanent gases
stable concentration in the atmosphere.
• account for about 99% of the atmospheric mass
• occur in a constant proportion in the lowest ~80 km of the
atmosphere.
• although individual molecules exchange between the

atmosphere and Earth, the total concentration remains the
same chemical homogeneity
• Lowest 80 km is called the Homosphere and is sometimes

considered to be the entire atmosphere.
• The atmosphere above this is called the Heterosphere.

1. Permanent gases
N2 + O2 = 99% of atmospheric
volume below 80 km.
They are chemically active.
Ar, Ne, He, Xe < 1% and are

chemically inert.
** The residence time of a gas is the average time an individual molecule

remains in the atmosphere.
1. Permanent gases
Nitrogen:
• N2 is added and removed from the atmosphere very
slowly – long residence time** of ~42 million years.
• N2 is relatively unimportant for most meteorological and
climate processes
• some gases containing N are important to the Earth’s
climate such as NO2.
Oxygen:
• O2 is crucial to the existence of almost all forms of life
currently on the Earth. Its residence time is ~5000 years.
2. Variable gases
distributions vary both in time and space.
• account for < 1% of the atmosphere below 80 km.

• some of these gases impact the behavior of the
atmosphere considerably.
H2O + CO2 + O3 = 0.296% of atmospheric volume.

Water Vapor (0.25%)
• water vapor varies considerably in both

space and time.
• Continually cycled between atmosphere
and earth by evaporation, condensation
and precipitation. (hydrologic cycle)
• Stores and releases large amounts of heat via evaporation
and condensation.
• Water vapor has a residence time of only 10 days.

• WV density is greatest at the surface, and decreases rapidly
with height.
• WV is extremely important for clouds
• WV absorbs radiant energy emitted from the Earth’s surface.
(Greenhouse gas)
Carbon Dioxide (0.036%)
• (CO2) is supplied to the atmosphere through plant and animal

respiration, through decay of organic material, volcanic
eruptions, and both natural and anthropogenic (human caused)
combustion.
• It is removed through photosynthesis, the process by which

green plants convert light energy to chemical energy. Oxygen is
released into the atmosphere as a by-product.
• CO2 has a residence time of ~150 yrs.

• It is an effective absorber of longwave radiation emitted from
the Earth’s surface. (Greenhouse gas)
• Its concentration in the atmosphere has increased ~18% since
1958.
Ozone (0.01%)
• (O3) is an unusual molecule made up of 3 Oxygen atoms. It

forms when individual O atoms collide with an O2 molecule and
exists in very small concentrations in the stratosphere (we’ll
define this a little later).
• O3 is vital for absorbing lethal UV radiation from the sun. As it

does this, it breaks down into its constituent components O + O2.
• Near the surface ozone is a pollutant, but exists there in

extremely small amounts.
3. Aerosols
• are small solid particles or liquid droplets (except water
particles) in the air.
• They are formed by both natural and anthropogenic means.

Aerosols typically have residence times of a few days to several
weeks.
• Apart from pollution, aerosols play an important role as

condensation nuclei, the core about which water can condense
in clouds.
• Formed from chemical reactions, wind-generated dust, volcanic

ejections, sea spray, and combustion (e.g., fine ash)
removed from the atmosphere in precipitation.

Unique Features of Earth’s
Atmosphere
• Atmospheric composition – high Oxygen content, low Carbon

Dioxide content.
• Greenhouse gases contribute to livable surface temperatures
• Most important greenhouse gas is water vapor!
• Without an atmosphere, Earth’s surface temp would only be
approximately 0°F!
• Water in all three phases: solid, liquid, gas.
• Patchy cloud fields – extensive up and down convective motions
in atmosphere.
• Circular motions with storms.
Vertical Structure of the atmosphere
1. Density
2. Pressure
3. Temperature
mass
______
Density:  = volume (kg/m3 or g/cm3)
Initial State    
Incompressible fluid
Initial State    
Compressible fluid
The density of the gases that make up the atmosphere is

constantly changing. In addition, the atmosphere is compressible.
Near sea level, air density ~ 1.2 kg m-3.
Sea-level
At Denver CO, (~1.6 km altitude – or 1 mile), air density is

approximately 85% of that at sea level, or 1.01 kg m–3.
Denver, CO
Pressure:
30
Higher elevation
Height Less air above
(km) Lower pressure
Can be thought of as 20
weight of air above you.
(Note that pressure acts in
all directions!) 10
So as elevation increases,
pressure decreases.
0
Lower elevation
More air above
Higher pressure
Density and Pressure Variation
Key Points:
1. Both decrease
rapidly with height
2. Air is compressible,
i.e. its density varies
Ahrens, Fig. 1.5

Pressure Decreases Exponentially
with Height
Logarithmic Decrease
1 mb
48 km
• For each 16 km
increase in altitude,
10 mb
32 km pressure drops by
factor of 10.
100 mb 16 km 48 km - 1 mb
32 km - 10 mb
16 km - 100 mb
0 km - 1000 mb
Exponential Variation
Logarithmic Decrease
• For each 5.5 km height

increase, pressure
drops by factor of 2.
16.5 km - 125 mb
11 km - 250 mb
5.5 km - 500 mb
0 km - 1000 mb
Equation for Pressure Variation
We can Quantify Pressure Change with Height

 Z /(16 km)
p (at elevation zin km)  pMSL  10
where
z is elevation in kilometers (km)
p is pressure in millibars (mb)
at elevation z in meters (km)
pMSL is pressure (mb) at mean sea level
What is Pressure at 2.8 km?
(Summit of Mt. Lemmon)
Use Equation for Pressure Change:

p(at elevation Z in km) = pMSL x 10 -Z/(16 km)
Set Z = 2.8 km, pMSL = 1013 mb
p(2.8 km) = (1013 mb) x 10 –(2.8 km)/(16 km)
p(2.8 km) = (1013 mb) x 10 –(0.175)
p(2.8 km) = (1013 mb) x 0.668 = 677 mb

What is Pressure at Tucson?
Use Equation for Pressure Change:

p(at elevation Z in km) = pMSL x 10 -Z/(16 km)
Set Z = 800 m, pMSL = 1013 mb
Let’s get cocky…

How about Denver? Z=1,600 m
How about Mt. Everest? Z=8,700 m
You try these examples at home for practice
Temperature Stratification
Divide into several vertical layers based on electrical,
temperature, and chemical (homogeneous/heterogeneous),
characteristics.
Together with the

change in density with
height, this gives the
atmosphere its
structure.
“Standard atmosphere”
is calculated based on
profiles at 30 latitude.
Contains 80% of
Layer of most interest
the atmospheric
to Meteorology!!!
mass
Tropopause
Depth ranges from ~8 km
at the poles to ~16 km in
the tropics
Troposphere
The lapse rate is the

average decrease Majority of the
Rapid decrease in
in temperature with weather occurs
temperature with
height ~ 6.5°C/km here
height
Contains ~19.9% of Layer of some interest Stratopause
the atmospheric to Meteorology!!!
mass
Temperature increases with

height from 20-~50 km
(Temperature inversion)
Stratosphere
Ozone layer
The ozone layer absorbs

much of the incoming
solar radiation, warming
the stratosphere, and Isothermal in Little weather
protecting us from harmful lowest 10 km occurs here
UV radiation Lapse rate is 0
Neither of these layers have much
Mesosphere
interest for the Meteorologist
Temperature once
again decreases
with height
Thermosphere
Temperature once
again increases
with height
Ionosphere
- extends from the upper mesosphere into the thermosphere.

Contains large numbers of charged particles called ions. Ions
are atoms or molecules that have gained an electron or lost an
electron so that they carry a charge. This occurs in the upper
atmosphere because the molecules are being constantly
bombarded by solar radiation.
Important for reflecting AM radio waves back to Earth.
Also responsible for the aurora borealis (northern lights) and

aurora australis (southern lights).
PERUBAHAN IKLIM B
Kuliah # 1
Earth Radiation Budget
Earth’s Climate System
• climate system
• electromagenetic spectrum
• Earth’s radiation budget
• albedo
• greenhouse effect
Earth’s climate system
• climate driven by “solar energy”
• climate operates to distribute solar energy across surface
What is solar energy?

electromagnetic radiation (light)
both a particle (photon) and wave
photons can have different energies (wavelengths)
high energies = shorter wavelengths

low energies = longer wavelengths
Electromagnetic spectrum
describes what light of different wavelengths is called
How does solar energy interact with planet?
-- some is stopped by atmosphere,

some is not
-- depends on wavelength
atmosphere “transparent” for visible light,

less so for other wavelengths
Solar Energy Distribution
Earth’s Energy Balance
1. Energy Balance and Temperature
a. Atmospheric influences on insolation: absorption,
reflection, and scattering
b. Fate of incoming solar radiation
c. Surface-atmosphere energy transfer
d. Greenhouse effect
e. Temp. distributions
39
a. Atmospheric Influences on Insolation (review)
Absorption:
 Reduces energy reaching Earth surface
Scattering:
 Rayleigh, Mie, Nonselective
 Radiation is redirected
40
b. The Fate of Solar Insolation
The global energy budget = a balance between
incoming solar radiation (+) and outgoing
terrestrial radiation (-)
http://geography.uoregon.edu/envchange/clim_animations/gifs/three_rads_web.gif
42
Assume a constant supply of incoming
solar radiation:
50% does not reach surface: 5%
 25% absorbed by atmosphere 19%
19%
(7% via ozone)
 19% reflected via clouds 6%
6%
 6% back scattered via atmosphere
45%
50% that reaches the surface:
 45% absorbed by Earth surface 25%
25%
 5% reflected by ground
43
planetary albedo = 30% 5%

19% Earth and Atmosphere
6%
absorb 45% + 25% =
45%
70% of solar
insolation 44
25%
C. Surface – Atmosphere Energy Transfer
Radiation Exchange:
 Earth emits radiation (longwave), almost like a
blackbody
 Most radiation (96%)

(Radiation emitted
is absorbed by the by Earth)
atmosphere
Radiation absorbed
by atm.
45
Radiation Exchange:
Selective absorption
Atmospheric “window”
(Radiation emitted
by Earth)
Radiation absorbed
by atm.
46
Radiation Exchange:
 Net loss of radiation
47
Net Radiation = absorption of insolation
+ net longwave radiation
Net radiation
for atmosphere
= 25-54 units
= -29 units
Net radiation
for surface
= 45-16 units
48
= +29 units
Atmosphere = net radiation deficit

Surface = net radiation surplus
Energy must transfer between the surface and the
atmosphere!
 Conduction: transfers radiant energy into Earth,

and warms the laminar boundary layer ( = thin
layer of air above surface)
49
How does the surface energy surplus get to the

atmosphere?
1. Sensible heat:
 Readily detected heat energy
 Magnitude of change related to object’s
specific heat (J kg-1 °K-1) and mass
2. Latent heat:
 Energy required to change the phase of a
substance
50
Surface surplus offset by transfer of sensible (8
units) and latent (21 units) heat to atmosphere.
51
Convection moves energy
between surface and
atmosphere:
 Free convection:
= Mixing related to
buoyancy (light fluids float
when surrounded by denser
fluids).
52
http://nepalmountaintrek.com/images/paragliding.JPG
 Convection moves energy between surface and
atmosphere:
Forced convection:
= disorganized flow
Hurricane Ike at landfall, Huston/Galveston, 13 Sep. 2008

53
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:HGX_N0R_Legend_0.png
How does the surface energy surplus get to the

atmosphere?
1. Sensible heat:
 Readily detected heat energy
 Magnitude of change related to object’s
specific heat (J kg-1 °K-1) and mass
2. Latent heat:
 Energy required to change the phase of a
substance
54
Surface surplus offset by transfer of sensible (8
units) and latent (21 units) heat to atmosphere.
55
Latent heat (21 units) a

bigger player than
sensible heat (8 units):
56
Latitudinal variations:
 Between 38°N and S = net energy surpluses
 Poleward of 38o = net energy deficits
 Winter hemispheres - Net energy deficits poleward of
15o
57
Latitudinal variations:
 Energy surplus at low latitudes is offset by advection (horizontal heat
movement) of heat poleward by global wind (75%) and ocean (25%)
currents
Global Sea Surface Temperatures: Climatology: 58

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/clim_movie.shtml
Summary:
Divide the atmosphere into several vertical layers based on
temperature characteristics. Together with the change in density
with height, this gives the atmosphere its structure.
Thermosphere
Mesosphere
Temperature
Inversion
Stratosphere Stable layer
Troposphere
T-profile
tropopause
Temperature
inversion
PERUBAHAN IKLIM B
Kuliah Minggu-03
Sistem Iklim
Matahari
Humanosfer
Iklim
Bumi
Atmosfer
Kriosfer
Hidrosfer
Geosfer Biosfer
Differential Heating
If sun overhead,
get more photons
concentrated in a
smaller area...
more energy in
Earth’s spin axis is inclined, so we get seasons
Climate Scales
Climate is loosely defined as "average weather"
different spatial scales of climate:
1. Microclimate – 1 to 104 m2
2. Mesoclimate - 103 m2 up to 4 x 108 m2
3. Macroclimate - are extends for 4 x 108 m2, up to 6 x
103 m vertically,
4. Global climate - over entire earth
Schematic of climatic scales of study
Winter Summer Year Annual
Range
NH 8.1C 22.4C 15.2C 14.3C
(46.6F) (72.3F) (59.4F) (25.7F)
SH 9.7C 17.0C 13.3C 7.3C
(49.5F) (62.6F) (55.9F) (13.1F)
Difference -1.6C (- 5.4C (9.7F) 1.9C (3.5F) 7.0C
2.9F) (12.6F)
Climate Controls
1. Intensity of solar radiation and it's variation

with latitude
2. Distribution of land and water
3. Ocean currents
4. Prevailing winds
5. Positions of semi-permanent high and low
pressure systems
6. Mountain barriers
7. Altitude
Klasifikasi Iklim
Climate classification systems
No rigid rules exist to define climates on the earth as climatic classifications depend on
different combinations of climatic factors and elements. This explains the many
solutions proposed on the basis of the type of combination.
The most important climatic classification system are:

1. Zonal classification considering solar radiation or the temperature of the Earth’s
surface;
2. Dominant factor or limiting factor classification, based on the main factor, as for
example, aridity or humidity, which can limit life processes;
3. Genetic classification, on the basis of atmospheric circulation elements or mean
seasonal distribution of air-masses;
4. Quantitative classification, taking into account temperature and rainfall and their
combined effect on the biological environment. Quantitative classifications, as the
Köppen’s climatic system and Thornthwaite’s climatic system are considered the most
rational systems of climate classification.
Sirkulasi Umum Atmosfer
Dr. R. B. Schultz
ITCZ = Intertropical
convergence zone
Creates the equatorial
low, rainiest regions
on earth
Little wind – doldrums
20-300 Subtropical
High – very dry
Location of many of
the earth’s deserts
Little wind – horse
latitudes
Between 0-200 NE and
SE trade winds
Subpolar low –
plenty of rain
Mid latitude
westerlies
Polar high – pretty
dry
Polar easterlies
Evapotranpiration >> Precipitation
Criteria for classification of major climatic types in modified Köppen system.
Letter Criteria
A Avg. temp. of coolest month 18°C or higher
f precip. in driest month at least 6 cm
m precip. in driest month < 6 cm but >= 10 - r/25
w precip. in driest month < 10 - r/25
B 70% or more of annual precip. falls in warmer six months and r < 2t + 28
70% or more of annual precip. falls in cooler six months and r < 2t
Neither half of year with more than 70% of annual precip. and r < 2t + 14
W r < 1/2 upper limit of applicable requirement for B
S r < upper limit for B but more than 1/2 that amount
h t > 18°C
k t < 18°C
C Avg. temp. of warmest month > 10°C and of coldest month between 18° and
0°C
s precip. in driest month of summer half of year less than 4 cm and < 1/3 the
amount in wettest winter month
w precip. in driest month of winter half of year < 1/10 of amount in wettest summer
month
f precip. not meeting conditions of either s or w
a Avg. temp. of warmest month 22°C or above
b Avg. temp. of each of four warmest months 10°C or above; temp. of warmest
month below 22°C
c Avg. temp. of from one to three months 10°C or above; temp. of warmest month
below 22°C
D Avg. temp. of warmest month > 10°C and of coldest month 0°C or below
s Same as under C
w Same as under C
f Same as under C
a Same as under C
b Same as under C
c Same as under C
d Avg. temp. of coldest month below - 38°C
E Avg. temp. of warmest month equal to or below 10°C
T Avg. temp. of warmest month between 10° and 0°C
F Avg. temp. of warmest month 0°C or below
H Temp. requirements same as E, but due to altitude (generally above 1500 m)
* t = average annual temperature (°C); r = average annual precipitation (cm).

PERUBAHAN IKLIM B
Kuliah Minggu-03
Empiric Classification
Evapotranpiration >> Precipitation
Criteria for classification of major climatic
types in modified Köppen system (Köppen-
Geiger System, 1953).
Letter Criteria
A Avg. temp. of coolest month 18°C or higher
f precip. in driest month at least 6 cm
m precip. in driest month < 6 cm but >= 10 - r/25
w precip. in driest month < 10 - r/25
B 70% or more of annual precip. falls in warmer six months and r < 2t + 28
70% or more of annual precip. falls in cooler six months and r < 2t
Neither half of year with more than 70% of annual precip. and r < 2t + 14
W r < 1/2 upper limit of applicable requirement for B
S r < upper limit for B but more than 1/2 that amount
h t > 18°C
k t < 18°C
* t = average annual temperature (oC); r = average annual precipitation (cm).

C Avg. temp. of warmest month > 10°C and of coldest month between 18° and
0°C
s precip. in driest month of summer half of year less than 4 cm and < 1/3 the
amount in wettest winter month
w precip. in driest month of winter half of year < 1/10 of amount in wettest summer
month
f precip. not meeting conditions of either s or w
a Avg. temp. of warmest month 22°C or above
b Avg. temp. of each of four warmest months 10°C or above; temp. of warmest
month below 22°C
c Avg. temp. of from one to three months 10°C or above; temp. of warmest month
below 22°C
D Avg. temp. of warmest month > 10°C and of coldest month 0°C or below
s Same as under C
w Same as under C
f Same as under C
a Same as under C
b Same as under C
c Same as under C
d Avg. temp. of coldest month below - 38°C
E Avg. temp. of warmest month equal to or below 10°C
T Avg. temp. of warmest month between 10° and 0°C
F Avg. temp. of warmest month 0°C or below
H Temp. requirements same as E, but due to altitude (generally above 1500 m)
Empiric Classification
RATIONAL CLASSIFICATION OF CLIMATE
where Ih and Ia, are indices of humidity and aridity respectively, s is water
surplus, d is water deficiency, and n is water need.
P/E = 11,5 {P/(T-10)}10/9
where, T = Temperature (˚C) ET =
Evapotranspiration (cm)
Genetic Classification
Climates classifications by their causes. Three types
of method may be distinguished:
(1)those based on the geographic determinants of
climate,
(2)those based on the surface energy budget, and
(3)those derived from air mass analysis
Probably the most extensively used genetic systems,

are those that employ air mass concepts (e.g: Strahler,
1951 and Olliver, 1970).
o An air mass is a large body of air that is relatively
uniform in its characteristics for distances of
hundreds to thousands of kilometers, with its
characteristics resulting largely from the
characteristics of the place where the air mass forms
– the source region
o In principle, air masses possess relatively

homogeneous properties of temperature, humidity,
etc., in the horizontal with contrasts features at their
fronts.
o Air mass types include:
o the intensely-cold and dry Arctic (A) type;
o the slightly warmer and more humid
continental polar (cP);
o cool, humid maritime polar (mP);
o warm, humid maritime tropical (mT),
o hot, dry continental tropical (cT), and
o the “E” air masses of equatorial origin – a
more extreme version of the mT type
Air masses and climatic types
Wet Dry
Warm
Tropical Tropical wet Tropical Grp
wet and dry dry
(desert) I
mid Mid latitude mid Grp

latitude summer or latitude
wet winter dry dry II
(desert)
Polar wet Polar wet Polar dry Grp
and dry (desert) III
Cold
Climate Group and Air Mass Region
Climate zones determined by air mass
Vegetation Closely linked to climate
Often used as PROXY data for lack of
climate data
5 distinct veggie zones
•Forests = trees; many different types of
forests e.g., hardwood, conifer,
rainforest
•Deserts = discontinuous veggies; scrub brush;
cactus, etc.
•Grasslands = grasses
•Taiga = cold; climate evergreen conifer forests
•Tundra = cold; grasses sedges mosses and
lichens
Tropical Rainforest (Af)
Lat/Long = 3.39o S, 73.18o W

Average Annual Temperature (oC) = 26.1
Annual Temperature Range (oC) = 1.4
Total Annual Precipitation (mm) = 2879.2
Summer Precipitation (mm) =1583
Winter Precipitation (mm) = 1294.7
Geographic Distribution
Amazon Basin,
Congo River Basin,
East coast of Central America,
East coast and interior of Brazil, Characteristics
East coast of Madagascar, Constant high temperatures.
Malaysia, "Equal" day length.
Indonesia, Lowest annual temperature range
Philippines. of any climate.
Evenly distributed, heavy
Controlling Factors precipitation.
High year-round insolation and Much cloud cover and high
precipitation of ITCZ. humidity.
Rising air along trade wind coasts.
mE air masses.
Tropical Monsoon Climate (Am)
Lat/Long = 12.53o N, 74.52o E

Summer Precipitation (mm) = 3115.9
Coastal areas of southwest India,
Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Mynamar (Burma),
Southwestern Africa,
French Guiana,
Indonesia
northeast and southeast Brazil.
Controlling Factors
Summer onshore/winter offshore air movement related to
shifting ITCZ or monsoon circulation.
mE air masses during high-sun; stable mT or cT -> low-sun
Characteristics
Heavy high-sun rain; short low-sun drought.
Highest temperature just before rainy period.
Wet Dry Tropical Climate (Aw)
Latitude/Longitude = 14o N; 17o W

Total Annual Precipitation (mm) = 578
Summer Precipitation (mm) = 516
Winter Precipitation (mm) = 62
Tropical Desert Climate (BWh)
Latitude/Longitude: 27.7o N; 8.1o W

Summer Precipitation (mm) =11.8
coastal Chile and Peru
southern Argentina
southwest Africa
north Africa
Arabia, Iran
Pakistan, and western India;
Baja California and interior Mexico
Controlling Factors
Descending, diverging, circulation of subtropical highs
Continentality linked often with rain shadow location.
cT air masses
Characteristics
Among the driest places on earth
Mean annual temperature above 64.4o F (18oC)
Low relative humidity
Irregular and unreliable rainfall
Highest percentage of sunshine of any climate
Large diurnal temperature range
Highest daytime temperature of any climate
Annual precipitation less than half the annual potential evapotranspiration
Tropical Steppe Climate (BSh)
Latitude/Longitude: 16.25oS N; 133.3oE

Average Annual Temperature (C) = 26.5o
Annual Temperature Range (C) = 10o
Summer Precipitation (mm) =500
Peripheral to deserts especially in:
Australia
northern and southern Africa
southwest Asia
Argentina
western United States
Controlling Factors
Descending, diverging, circulation of subtropical highs
Continentality linked often with rainshadow location.
cT;mT
Characteristics
Semiarid
Annual rainfall distribution similar to nearest humid climate
Annual precipitation more than half, but less than annual potential
evapotranspiration
Humid Subtropical Climate (Cfa)
Latitude/Longitude = 35o N; 90o W

Average Annual Temperature (oC) = 17
Annual Temperature Range (oC) = 22
Southeastern U.S.
southeastern South America;
coastal southeast South Africa;
eastern Australia;
eastern Asia from northern India through south China to Japan.
Controlling Factors
East coast location between 20o and 40o N and S latitudes.
Humid (mTu air masses) onshore air movement in summer.
Cyclonic storms in winter (cP air masses)
Characteristics
High humidity; summers like humid tropics.
Frost with polar air masses in winter.
25 to 100 in of precipitation, decreasing inland.
Monsoon influence in Asia.
Mediterranean or Dry Summer
Subtropical Climate (Csa, Csb)
Latitude/Longitude = 37.45o N; 122.26o W

Central California
central Chile
Mediterranean Sea borderlands
Iranian Highlands
Capetown area of South Africa
southwestern Australia
Controlling Factors
West coast location between 30o and 40o N and S latitude.
Alternating between Subtropical High in summer and Polar Front/Westerlies in winter.
Cyclonic precipitation during the winter.
Summer air masses: mTs, cT
Winter air masses: mT, mP, cP
Characteristics
Mild, moist winters, hot dry summers inland
Cool, often foggy coasts
High percentage of sunshine
High summer diurnal temperature range
Frost danger during winter
Humid Continental Climate (Dfa, Dfb)

Average Annual Temperature (oC) =10.3
Annual Temperature Range (oC) =29.2
Total Annual Precipitation (mm) =904.4
Warm Summer Subtype

Eastern and Midwestern U.S. from Atlantic coast to 100th meridian.
east central Europe.
northern China.
northern Korea.
Cool Summer Subtype

New England, Great Lakes region.
south and central Canada. Characteristics
Warm Summer Subtype:

Hot humid summers; occasional winter cold waves.
Large annual temperature ranges.
Weather variability.
Cool Summer Subtype:

Moderate summers; long cold winters.
Large annual temperature ranges.
Variable weather.
Marine West Coast Climate (Cfb)
Latitude/Longitude = 49.1o N; 123.06o W Latitude/Longitude =51.3oN; .07o W

Average Annual Temperature (oC) = 9.8 Average Annual Temperature (oC) = 10.4
Annual Temperature Range (oC) =16 Annual Temperature Range (oC) = 14
Total Annual Precipitation (mm) =1048 Total Annual Precipitation (mm) = 595
Summer Precipitation (mm) = 277 Summer Precipitation (mm) = 295
Winter Precipitation (mm) = 771 Winter Precipitation (mm) =300
Coastal Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, and
southern Alaska
Southern Chile; interior South Africa
southeast Australia and New Zealand
northwest Europe
Controlling Factors
West coast location; year round influence of the
Westerlies.
Warm ocean currents along some coasts.
Windward orographic influence in North America.
Located further inland in Europe due to east - west
orientation of mountains.
Characteristics
Mild winters, mild summers.
Low annual temperature range.
Heavy cloud cover; high humidity.
Frequent cyclonic storms, with prolonged rain, drizzle and fog.
Midlatitude Desert Climate (BWk)

inner Asia
(interior) western U.S.
Controlling Factors
Continentality often linked to rain shadow.
Subtropical high pressure or high pressure ridging.
cT air mass during summer.
mTs air masse; cP air masses especially on northern limits.
Characteristics
Aridity; low relative humidity.
Irregular rainfall.
High percentage of sunshine.
Larger temperature range than Tropical Desert.
More precipitation than Tropical Desert.
Midlatitude Steppe (BSk)

Summer Precipitation (mm) =362.8
Inner Asia;
Western U.S.
Controlling Factors
Essentially the same as deserts;
Transitional to humid climates;
Leeward orographic influence (rainshadow)
Characteristics
Semiarid
Rainfall distribution similar to nearest humid climate
Temperatures vary with latitude, elevation, and continentality
Larger temperature range than Tropical Steppe
More precipitation than Tropical Steppe
Subarctic Climate (Dfc, Dfd)

Average Annual Temperature (oC) = -10.08
Total Annual Precipitation (mm) =213
Geographical Distribution
Northern N. America from Newfoundland to Alaska;
Northern Eurasia from Scandinavia through most of Siberia.
Virtually nonexistent in the Southern Hemisphere.
Controlling Factors
Location in the higher middle latitudes (50o to 70o ).
Westerlies in summer; strong polar anticyclone and Easterlies in winter.
Occasional cyclonic storms.
Extreme continentality.
cP, cA, mP air masses
Characteristics
Brief, cool summers; long, bitterly cold winters.
Largest annual temperature ranges.
Lowest temperatures outside of Antarctica.
Tundra Climate (ET)
Latitude/Longitude = 71.2o N; 156o W

Average Annual Temperature (oC) = -12.7o
Annual Temperature Range (oC) = 32o
Arctic ocean border lands of North America;
Greenland and Eurasia;
Antarctic Peninsulas;
some polar islands.
Controlling Factors
Location in the high latitudes;
Subsidence and divergence of the polar anticylone
Arctic front cyclones
cA, mP, cP
Characteristics
"Summer-less"; at least 9 months average below freezing.
Low evaporation; precipitation usually below 10 in.
Ice Cap Climate (EF)
Latitude/Longitude = 77o S; 166o E

Average Annual Temperature (oC) = -17.0
Antarctica
interior Greenland
Permanently frozen portions of the Arctic Ocean and associated islands
Controlling Factors
Location in the interior of high latitude land masses.
Year-round influence of polar anticyclone.
Ice cover - high albedo
cP, cA air masses
Characteristics
Summerless; all months below freezing.
World's coldest temperatures.
Extremely small amount of precipitation.
Windy
The Early Atmosphere
• Earth's first atmosphere 4.6 billion years ago was most likely
comprised of hydrogen
and helium (two most abundant gases found in the universe!)
• Through the process of outgassing, the outpouring of gases
from the earth's interior, many other gases were injected into
the atmosphere. These include:
o water vapor (produced rain - rivers, lakes, oceans) + ice
meteorite
o carbon dioxide
o nitrogen
o et all
• As outgassing occurred
over a period of millions
of years, the atmosphere
evolved to its current state
The greenhouse Gases
• Greenhouse gases are the gases present in the atmosphere

which reduce the loss of heat into space and therefore
contribute to global temperatures.
• Greenhouse gases are essential to maintaining the temperature
of the earth; without them the planet would be so cold as to be
uninhabitable.
• Likewise, an excess of greenhouse gases can raise the
temperature of the planet to unlivable levels.
• The term greenhouse gas is applied to, in order of relative
abundance: water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous
oxide, ozone and CFCs.
• Greenhouse gases are produced by many natural and industrial
processes.
The Greenhouse Effect
Earth’s atmosphere absorbs incoming solar radiation and warms the planet.
Surface temperature without atmosphere: -19 C, actual: 15 C!
Radiation emission by sun and earth
Radiation absorption by gases
Source: http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/edu/dees/
Radiative Equilibrium
 Each planet must balance net incoming solar
radiation with outgoing radiation, determined by its
temperature.
 Stefan-Boltzmann Law:
 “A body at temperature T radiates energy at a rate
proportional to T4 ” (T in Kelvin)
 Balance incoming and outgoing radiation:
Net incoming radiation=Outgoing radiation
S(1-α) = σ T4
(σ is the Stefan-Boltzmann constant = 5.67 x 10-8 W m-2 K-4)
The simplest possible way of constructing a model of the Earth’s
climate is to consider the radiative balance/equilibrium of the
globe as a whole:
0-D Energy Balance Model
Earth is heated by
absorption of solar
radiation and cooled by
radiating thermal
(longwave) radiation back
to space.
The incoming shortwave radiation from the sun averaged over

Earth's surface is
S=S0/4=342 W/m2.
The “solar constant” S0 = 1370 W/m2

0-D Energy Balance Model (2)
Some part of this incoming radiation is reflected back to space by
clouds or snow and ice cover on the ground.
This fraction is called planetary albedo (Earth’s is about a=0.3)
Assuming steady state: the shortwave radiation absorbed by the

Earth's surface must equal the longwave radiation
emitted back to space at the equilibrium temperature Te:
FSW = Fe
Incoming
(1-a)S = σTe4 emitted
reflected
(Eq.1)
surface
σ =5.67x10-8 W/(m2K4)
is the Stefan Boltzmann
constant
Solving for Eq. 1 give predicted equilibrium equilibrium
temperature of earth: -18.2°C
Earth's actual average surface temperature is about 15°C.
What went wrong?
The answer is : Atmosphere!
The atmosphere allows only a fraction τ of the surface radiation to be
transmitted to space.
It will assume a temperature Ta which leads to emission of longwave
radiation
Fa= σ Ta4 to both space and downward to the surface.
We have two equations for the energy balance:
(1-a)S = Fe – Fa (Eq.2) for surface

(1- τ )Fe = 2Fa (Eq.3) for atmosphere
Insert Eq.3 to Eq.2:
(Eq.4)
Eq.4 incorporated a term g,
which is called the
greenhouse factor.
With atmosphere's
transmissivity is τ =0.23 and
thus g=0.62, Eq. 4 predicted
a realistic surface
temperature of Te=15°C.
The atmosphere temperature

of Ta=-46°C, which is
close to the observed
temperature of the
tropopause.
Temperature of the inner planets
¼
S(1-α) = σ T4
(σ = 5.67 x 10-8 W m-2 K-4)
Rearranging: T = { S(1- α)
σ
} T(°C) = T(K) - 273
Relative Solar Albedo Net solar Equilib Actual

distance radiation (α) radiation -rium surface T
(S) W m-2 S(1- α) T (°C) (°C)
Mercury 0.39 2250 0.1 2025 162 180
Just about agrees
Venus 0.72 660 0.59 271 -10 453
96% CO2
3,5%N2 Disagrees badly
Earth 1 342 0.31

77%N2
236 -19 15
21%O2
0,25%H2O
Disagrees
0,0037%CO2
Mars 1.5 150 0.15 128 -55 -43

95%CO2
2,7%N2 Nearly agrees
The ‘Greenhouse Effect’
 Radiative equilibrium works for Mercury (no atmosphere) and just
about for Mars (thin atmosphere)
 The disagreement for Venus and the Earth is because these two
planets have atmospheres containing certain gases which modify
their surface temperatures.
 This is the ‘Greenhouse Effect’ in action:
Earth’s surface is 34°C warmer than if there were no
atmosphere
Venus has a ‘runaway’ Greenhouse effect, and is over 400°C
warmer
Mars atmosphere slightly warms its surface, by about 10°C
• The existence of the Greenhouse Effect is universally accepted (it
is not controversial), and it links the composition of a planet’s
atmosphere to its surface temperature.
Greenhouse gases on the rise:
Pre-industrial Now Sources
Carbon dioxide: 280 ppm 380 ppm Organic decay; Forest fires;
Volcanoes; Burning fossil fuels;
Deforestation; Land-use change
Methane 700 ppb 1750 ppb Wetlands; Organic decay;

Termites; Natural gas & oil
extraction; Biomass burning; Rice
cultivation; Cattle; Refuse landfills
Nitrous oxide 270 ppb 310 ppb Forests; Grasslands; Oceans;

Soils; Soil cultivation; Fertilizers;
Biomass burning; Burning of fossil
fuels
CFC 0 ppt 533 ppt Refrigerators; Aerosol spray

propellants; Cleaning solvents
Ozone Unknown Varies with Created naturally by the action of

latitude and sunlight on molecular oxygen and
altitude artificially through photochemical
smog production
ppm = 1 event in a million  1000 ppm = 0,1%
Carbon dioxide
Carbon dioxide is a gas at standard temperature and pressure and
exists in Earth's atmosphere in this state. It is currently at a globally
averaged concentration of approximately 383 (403) ppm by volume
in the Earth's atmosphere, although this varies both by location and
time.
Carbon dioxide is an important greenhouse gas because it transmits
visible light but absorbs strongly in the infrared.
Carbon dioxide is produced by all human and animals, plants, fungi
and microorganisms during respiration and is used by plants during
photosynthesis.
It’s also generated as a byproduct of the combustion of fossil fuels
or vegetable matter, among other chemical processes. And also as a
byproduct in lime production.
Inorganic carbon dioxide is output by volcanoes and other
geothermal processes such as hot springs.
Methane
• Methane is the principal component of natural gas.
• Methane is a relatively potent greenhouse gas with a high global
warming potential.
• Methane in the atmosphere is eventually oxidized, producing carbon
dioxide and water. As a result, methane in the atmosphere has a half
life of seven years (every seven years, the amount of methane halves).
• The abundance of methane in the Earth's atmosphere in 1998 was 1745
parts per billion, up from 700 ppb in 1750.
• In addition, there is a large, but unknown, amount of methane in
methane clathrates in the ocean floors (CH4)4(H2O)23. Global warming
could release this methane, which could cause a further sharp rise in
global temperatures. Such releases of methane may have been a major
factor in previous major extinction events.
• The Earth's crust also contains huge amounts of methane. Large
amounts of methane are produced in swamps. Other sources include
mud volcanoes which are connected with deep geological faults.
Nitrous Oxide
• Nitrous oxide (also known as laughing gas) is a chemical compound
with the chemical formula N2O.
• It is used in motor racing as an oxidizer to increase the power output of
engines.
• Despite its relatively small concentration in the atmosphere, nitrous
oxide is the fourth largest greenhouse gas contributor to overall global
warming, behind carbon dioxide, methane and water vapour.
• Nitrous oxide is emitted by bacteria in soils and oceans, and thus has
been a part of Earth's atmosphere for aeons. Agriculture is the main
source of human-produced nitrous oxide: cultivating soil, the use of
nitrogen fertilizers, and animal waste handling can all stimulate
naturally occurring bacteria to produce more nitrous oxide.
• The livestock sector (primarily cows, chickens, and pigs) produces 65%
of human-related nitrous oxide.
• Industrial sources make up only about 20% of all anthropogenic
sources, and include the production of nylon and nitric acid, and the
burning of fossil fuel in internal combustion engines.
Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)
• Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC) are compounds containing chlorine,
fluorine and carbon only, that is they contain no hydrogen.
• They were formerly used widely in industry, for example as refrigerants,
propellants, and cleaning solvents. Their use has been regularly
prohibited by the Montreal Protocol, because of effects on the ozone
layer.
• They are also powerful greenhouse gases.
• CFC's have half-lives between 50-100 years, so their presence in the
atmosphere and reactivity with ozone is long lived. One CFC molecule
typically degrades around 10,000 ozone molecules before its removal,
but this number can sometimes be in the millions.
Ozone (O3)
Ozone is a pale blue, relatively unstable molecule made up of three
oxygen atoms
Water Vapor
Water vapor is a naturally occurring greenhouse gas and accounts
for the largest percentage of the greenhouse effect, between 36%
and 66%. Water vapor concentrations fluctuate regionally, but
human activity does not directly affect water vapor concentrations
except at local scales (for example, near irrigated fields).
Water vapor is special in the sense that the amount of water vapor
depends directly on the temperature.
Vapor pressure is the pressure of a vapor in equilibrium with its

liquid. Water has a tendency to evaporate to a gaseous form, and
water vapor has a tendency to condense back into liquid form. At
any given temperature, for a particular substance, there is a pressure
at which the gas of that substance is in dynamic equilibrium with its
liquid or solid forms. This is the vapor pressure of that substance at
that temperature. The air cannot hold more water vapor than is
allowed by the vapor pressure.
Clausius-Clapeyron Relation
The Clausius-Clapeyron relation gives a relationship between the
saturation vapor pressure and the temperature.
17.67T
es T   6.112e T  243.5
This equation establishes that warmer air has the potential to hold
more water vapor per unit volume. As a simple example, the air
at 30 oC can hold about 3.5 times more water vapor than air at 10
oC. Current state-of-the-art climate models predict that increasing
water vapor concentrations in warmer air will amplify the

greenhouse effect created by anthropogenic greenhouse gases.
Thus water vapor acts as a strong positive feedback to the forcing
provided by greenhouse gases such as CO2.
Vapor (g) per
Temperature
Kilogram of Dry
Degrees Celsius
Air
50 88.12
40 49.81
30 27.69
20 14.85
10 7.76
0 3.84
Warming from
increases
in greenhouse
gases
General cooling
from increases
in aerosols –
but high uncertainty
IPCC(2007)
Model Predictions
ΔT = ʎ .
λ=climate sensivity (K/(W/m2))

≈0,8 K/(W/m2)
At +4.5 C there would be no polar ice caps
Since 1979, the size of the summer polar ice

cap has shrunk more than 20 percent.
(Illustration from NASA)
Conveyor
Sea level rise by 6 m would change the world map.
Positive feedbacks tend to accelerate change and
make things worse…
Global temperature
+
The greenhouse effect increases More CO2 trapped in soil reservoirs is
temperature further released
More water vapor in the atmosphere
+
Greenhouse gases
Positive feedbacks tend to accelerate change and
make things worse…
Global temperature
Melting polar ice caps reduce the

amount of reflected solar radiation.
Negative feedbacks tend to slow or reverse change…
Global temperature
-
Reduced rate of greenhouse gas More CO2 in the atmosphere, higher
accumulation slows global warming temperatures enhance plant growth and
CO2 uptake
-
Greenhouse gases
- The CO2 fertilization effect -

Negative feedbacks tend to slow or reverse change…
Global temperature
Higher temperatures increase cloud

cover and scatter more solar radiation
back to the sky.
Radiative Forcing of Greenhouse Gases
Most greenhouse gases have both natural and anthropogenic sources. During
the pre-industrial Holocene, levels of the gases were roughly constant. Since
the industrial revolution, levels of some gases have increased due to human
actions.
Gas 1750 Level Current Level Increase Forcing (Wm2)
Carbon dioxide 280 ppm 384 ppm 104 ppm 1.53

Methane 700 ppb 1,745 ppb 1,045 ppb 0.48
Nitrous oxide 270 ppb 314 ppb 44 ppb 0.15
CFC-12 0 533 ppt 533 ppt 0.17
As you can see, even though the concentration of CFCs is low, its effect is
very high, so we need a different measure for the effect of these gases.
Global Warming Potential
Global warming potential (GWP) is a measure of how much a given
mass of greenhouse gas is estimated to contribute to global warming.
It is a relative scale which compares the gas in question to that of the
same mass of carbon dioxide.
The GWP depends on the following factors:
• the absorption of infrared radiation by a given species
• the spectral location of its absorbing wavelengths
• the atmospheric lifetime of the species
GWP values and lifetimes from Lifetime GWP time horizon

2007 IPCC AR4 (years) 20 years 100 years 500 years
Methane 12 72 25 7.6
Nitrous oxide 114 310 298 153
HFC-23 (hydrofluorocarbon) 270 12000 14800 12200
HFC-134a (hydrofluorocarbon) 14 3830 1430 435

Sulfur hexafluoride 3200 16300 22800 32600
No 16
How is the CO2 captured?
• Three main capturing systems:
–Pre-combustion capture
–Post-combustion capture
–Oxy-fuel combustion capture
Tugas menonton video:
A Brief History of CO2 Emissions

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EQ7S0D1iucY
Carbon Capture Technology Explained | Seachange

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XxjNhLZCae0
Highlights, continued
Six greenhouse gases are regulated by the treaty:

CO2 (1 GWP)
Methane (24 GWP)
Nitrous oxide (170-190 GWP)
Hydroflourocarbons (4,000 – 10,000 GWP)
Perflourocarbons (6,000 – 10,000 GWP)
Sulphur hexaflouride (25,000 GWP) (GWP: Global Warming Potential)
States must have made demonstrable progress by 2005 and must submit
a report January 1, 2006.
Measures taken towards emissions targets are open: enhancing energy

efficiency, promoting renewable energy and sustainable agriculture,
reducing transport sector emissions, protecting greenhouse gas sinks.
Emissions trading among Annex I countries is allowed.
The Chicago Climate Exchange

http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/
What is the ozone layer?
What is the Ozone?
• Ozone is a pale blue, relatively unstable molecule made up of
three oxygen atoms
• Named from the Greek "ozein" for smell ( Pronunciation:

'O-"zOn )
• The ozone layer is a concentration of ozone molecules in the
stratosphere.
• About 90% of the planet's ozone is in the ozone layer.
Atmospheric Structure and
Ozone Layer
Ozone amounts in the stratosphere
are small, rarely exceeding 10
parts per million by volume.
Ozone is measured in Dobson
Units. One Dobson Unit (DU)
corresponds to 2.69 x 10E16
molecules per square centimeter,
which is equivalent to the amount
of gas in one square centimeter at
1 atmosphere of pressure.
Average ozone levels are 300 DU, which would be equivalent

to a layer 3 millimeters thick if compressed to the planet's
surface. Levels may range from less than 100 DU to over 500
DU globally.
Vertical Structure
Of Ozone Atmosphere
Source: NASA
The Optical Properties of Ozone
• In 1879, Marie Alfred Cornu

observes a sharp cutoff (300 nm) in
the ultraviolet (UV) solar spectrum.
• In 1881, Walter Noel Hartley
measures the ozone absorption cross
section in the laboratory and
recognizes that this UV cutoff is
produced by the presence of ozone
in the atmosphere.
• In 1913, John William Strutt (Lord
Rayleigh) shows that the UV Alfred Cornu
absorption does not happen in Professor at
lower atmosphere
Ecole Polytechnique
in Paris
Ozone Observations
• Paul Götz during a Spitzbergen

expedition in 1929 (by inverting
Dobson spectrophotometer
measurements at high solar zenith
angles) shows that the maximum
ozone concentration is located
near 25 km altitude.
• Götz and Hans Dütsch conducted
systematic ozone observation in
Arosa, Switzerland since 1926.
How does ozone interact with UV
rays?
Stratospheric Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation (UVR)
• Ultra-violet radiation (UVR) high energy electromagnetic wave emitted from the
sun. It is made up of wavelengths ranging from 100nm to 400nm.
• UV radiation includes UV-A, the least dangerous form of UV radiation, with a

wavelength range between 315nm to 400nm, UV-B with a wavelength range
between 280nm to 315nm, and UV-C which is the most dangerous between 100nm
to 280nm. UV-C is unable to reach Earth’s surface due to stratospheric ozone’s
ability to absorb it. (Last, 2006)
What is UV light?
Source: NASA
Formation of Ozone in stratosphere
O2 + (radiation < 240nm) → 2 O
O2 + O + M → O3 + M
Net reaction: 3 O2 + UV  2 O3
Molecule M carries the energy of the
reaction but remain unchanged.
(Energi ikatan 02 = 498 KJ/mol)
Natural formating and
spliting of stratopheric
ozone
Sydney Chapman’s model: a
kinetic model for the
production and destruction of
stratospheric ozone
R1 O2 + hv  O + O
R2 O + O2 + M  O3 + M
R3 O3 + hv  O2 + O
R4 O3 + O  2O2
Ozone filters UV
• Stratospheric ozone is a naturally-occurring
gas that filters the sun's ultraviolet (UV)
radiation.
• Thats mean: Stratospheric ozone protects us
from UV radiation
Problem with Chapman’s
Model
• Qualitative
agreement: presence
of an ozone layer at
the right height;
predicts thermal
inversion. But…
• What is wrong?
• Predicts too much ozone
– Either there is an extra source

of Ox OR
– There are other sinks:
pathways that destroy ozone
Ozone Hole Mechanism
Marcel Nicolet: HOx cycle
H, OH and HO2 species formed by reaction of

excited O atoms with H-containing atmospheric
species like H2O and CH4
O3 + hn (l < 310 nm)-> O + O2

O + H2O -> OH + OH
O + CH4 -> CH3 + OH
H2O + hn -> H + OH
Reactions of HOx species with O3
OH + O3 -> HO2 + O2
HO2 + O -> OH + O2
Net Reaction
O + O3 -> 2O2
“Ozone Depletion”
Competing Reactions
Paul Crutzen: NOx Cycle
NOx species are produced during the reaction of O atoms with N2O
(produced in the soil by bacteria)
O + N2O --> 2 NO
Reactions of NOx species with O3
NO + O3 -> NO2 + O2
NO2 + O -> NO + O2
Paul Crutzen, ~ 1970

Net Reaction
O + O3 -> 2O2 “Ozone Depletion”

The first “man-made” threat to the ozone layer was noted by Harold
Johnston (1971): supersonic aircrafts
These aircraft would be capable of releasing nitrogen oxides right in the

middle of the ozone layer at altitudes of 20 km.
This was also the start of intensive research into the chemistry of the
atmosphere.
Competing Reactions
Mario Molina, Sherwood Rowland (1974): ClOx cycle
ClOx species are produced from chlorofluorocarbons (CFC’s) and

methyl chloride
CFC’s are artificially produced; methyl chloride is a

naturally occuring chemical.
Examples of CFC’s : Freons (CFCl3, CF2Cl2)
CCl2F2 + hn -> CF2Cl + Cl

CCl2F2 + O -> CF2Cl + ClO
Reactions of ClOx species with O3
Cl + O3 -> ClO + O2
ClO + O -> Cl + O2
Net Reaction
O + O3 -> 2O2
“Ozone Depletion”
1974 - Mario Molina, Sherwood Rowland

Paul Crutzen, Mario Molina, Sherwood Rowland
1995 Nobel Prize in Chemistry - for their work in atmospheric
chemistry, particularly concerning the formation and decomposition of
ozone"
http://www.nobel.se/chemistry/laureates/1995/press.html
Consequences of Competing Reactions
Effect of competing reaction on rate of ozone formation
Depleting reactions are NOT independent of each other; all occur

simultaneously
NET LOSS OF OZONE

Sources of ozone depleting molecules in the stratosphere
Naturally occuring species (H2O, N2O, CH4)
Artificial, “man-made” species

CFC’s (CCl3F,CCl2F2, etc.)
CCl4, CHCl3
HBFC (CHFBr2,CHF2Br)
CH3Br
NO from supersonic aircrafts
The artificial compounds have the most severe effect

How is the ozone layer being depleted?
• Ozone is gradually being destroyed by man-made
chemicals referred to as ozone-depleting
substances (ODS):
1. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)
2. Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs)
3. Halons (CBrClF2)
4. Methyl bromide (CH3Br)
5. Carbon tetrachloride (CCl4)
6. Methyl chloroform (CH3CCl3)
7. .......
These substances were formerly used and sometimes still are used in
coolants, foaming agents, fire extinguishers, solvents, pesticides,
and aerosol propellants.
STRATOSPHERIC
DISTRIBUTION OF CF2Cl2
(CFC-12)
SOURCE GAS CONTRIBUTIONS TO
STRATOSPHERIC CHLORINE (2004)
How is the ozone layer being depleted? Cont......
• ODS can stay for long time in the atmosfer and degrade
very slowly (16 to 1700 years 
http://www.epa.gov/Ozone/science/ods/classone.html).
• Therefore they have time to move through the
troposphere until they reach the stratosphere. Where
they are broken down by the intensity of the sun's UV
rays and release chlorine and bromine molecules, which
destroy the ozone.
• Scientists estimate that one chlorine atom can destroy
100,000 ozone molecules.
How is the ozone layer being depleted? Cont..
• Even though we have reduced or eliminated the
use of many ODSs, their use in the past can still
affect the protective ozone layer because of it’s
long life time in the atmosphere.
CFC’s interact with Ozone
The most efficient catalytic reaction cycle responsible
for the ozone hole is discovered by Mario Molina.
An example to ozone destruction
reactions
• CFCl3 + hν → CFCl2 + Cl
• Cl + O3 → ClO + O2
• ClO + O → Cl + O2
• O3 + O → 2 O2
• One single free chlorine atom can catalytically
destroy 2 ozone molecules
• A single chlorine atom removes about 100,000
ozone molecules before it is taken out of operation
by other substances.
Chlorine is removed from the stratosphere by two chemical
reactions:
ClO + NO2  ClONO2
CH4 + Cl  HCl + CH3

Stratospheric chlorine monoxide and
ozone are inversely related
Stratospheric
chlorine
monoxide and
ozone are
inversely related
The Antarctic
Ozone Hole
• Airborne field campaigns and

space observations confirm
that anthropogenic chlorine
is responsible for the
formation of the ozone hole.
• Substantial ozone destruction
is also observed in the Arctic.
Nitric acid trihidrate

Sipercooled ternary solution
THE OZONE HOLE IS A
SPRINGTIME PHENOMENON
Source: https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/
Antarctic Ozone
2010: ~21
2010: 118
Source: https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/
The Ozone Hole
50 year record of ozone measurements over the south pole from the
British Antarctic Survey.
Concentration Ozone in Antarctic region
Ozone hole in September 2006
“Largest hole in the record.”

~Size of North America
Source: NASA
The Ozone Hole
The purple areas reveal the “ozone hole” over Antarctica

Effects on Human Health
1. Nonmelanoma skin cancer

2. Cataracts.
3. Increase the risk of health effects
Effects on Plants
1. Physiological and developmental processes of plants  plant growth

can be directly affected by UVB radiation.
2. Indirect changes caused by UVB (such as changes in plant form,
how nutrients are distributed within the plant, timing of
developmental phases and secondary metabolism) may be equally, or
sometimes more, important than damaging effects of UVB. These
changes can have important implications for plant competitive
balance, herbivory, plant diseases, and biogeochemical cycles.
Effects on Marine Ecosystems
1. Exposure to solar UVB radiation has been shown to affect both

orientation mechanisms and motility in phytoplankton, resulting in
reduced survival rates for these organisms. Scientists have
demonstrated a direct reduction in phytoplankton production due to
ozone depletion-related increases in UVB
2. Solar UVB radiation has been found to cause damage to early
developmental stages of fish, shrimp, crab, amphibians and other
animals.
3. The most severe effects are decreased reproductive capacity and
impaired larval development.
4. Small increases in UVB exposure could result in significant
reduction in the size of the population of animals that eat these
smaller creatures.
Effects on Biogeochemical Cycles
Increases in solar UV radiation could affect terrestrial and aquatic

biogeochemical cycles, thus altering both sources and sinks of
greenhouse and chemically-important trace gases e.g., carbon dioxide
(CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), carbonyl sulfide (COS) and possibly
other gases, including ozone. These potential changes would contribute to
biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks that attenuate or reinforce the
atmospheric buildup of these gases.
Effects on Materials
Synthetic polymers, naturally occurring biopolymers, as well as some

other materials of commercial interest are adversely affected by solar UV
radiation. Today's materials are somewhat protected from UVB by special
additives. Therefore, any increase in solar UVB levels will therefore
accelerate their breakdown, limiting the length of time for which they are
useful outdoors.
The Ozone Hole
Size of ozone hole has stabilized
Rapid increase in ozone hole size
Estimated recovery time: 2065

Effects of the ozone hole in Antarctica
have already been seen in some of the
organisms
Cancer rates have soared,
especially in Australia
• A 10-20% increase in skin cancer is expected
in the Pacific Northwest in the next few decades.
• Increase in infection and disease (weakened
immune system).
• In Australia, an estimated 2 out every 3 people
develop skin cancer.
• In the US, incidence of melanoma has gone up
from 1/1500 (1935) to 1/150 (1991) to 1/75
(2000).
Most of the damage to the ozone layer
is caused by human activities
Who uses CFCs?
Freon is a common
CFC
A fleet of high-speed commercial
airplanes would deplete the ozone layer
by about 2% a year
Sea salt actually puts more chlorine into
the Earth's atmosphere than anything
else, but is not of any concern to ozone
depletion. Why not?
Chlorine is removed from the atmosphere

within a few days to a week.
Volcanoes can
dump HCl into the
atmosphere, but
most of it quickly
washed away
Volcano. . . .. . .Stratospheric aerosol. .Estimated HC1 put in atmosphere. . VIE

St. Helen's. . . ...55 Mt. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 5.5 tons (.0055 Mt).. . . . . . . . . .. . . . ..5
El Chichon . . . ..12 Mt.. . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 120 tons (.12 Mt). . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . 5
Mt. Pinatubo ......30 Mt.. .................... ... . 310 tons (.31 Mt) . . ................ . . . . 5-6
Note: VIE = Volcanic Explosivity Index

Why is the Ozone Hole
observed over Antarctica even
though CFCs are released
mainly in the northern
hemisphere?
Why is the Ozone Hole
observed over Antarctica even
though CFCs are released
mainly in the northern
hemisphere?
Very large land mass of Antartica and a stagnant

whirlpool of extremely cold stratospheric air
favors the formation of polar stratospheric
clouds, which provide ice-crystal surfaces on
which the destructive reactions take place.
Global Circulation
Global Circulation Cont.....
For a non-rotating Earth,
convection could form simple
symmetric cells in each
hemisphere.
Global Circulation Cont.....
Coriolis force turns the air Polar Cell
flow. Stable mean circulation Ferrel Cell
has 6 counter-rotating cells – 3

in each hemisphere.
Within each cell, coriolis
forces turn winds to east or
west. Exact boundaries
between cells varies with
season.
N.B. This is a simplified model,

circulations are not continuous in
space or time.
http://www3.interscience.wiley.com:8100/legacy/college/strahler/0471
238007/animations/ch07_animations/animation3.html
Formation of polar vortex
• Meteorological
mechanism
– Movement of air from
one place to another in
the upper stratosphere
– Cold temperature in
the upper atmosphere
causes nitric acid
trihydrate HNO3.3H2O
to freeze into crystals
forming wispy pink
clouds
– Forms a vortex of
tightly twisted winds
thus forming a hole in
the upper atmosphere
Polar Vortex
The Ozone Hole
Why does the ozone hole occur

only over the South Pole?
During SH winter (July) strong winds

create a barrier which isolates the air over
Antarctica.
This barrier allows the air over Antarctica

to get very cold leading to the formation of
Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSCs).
Polar stratospheric clouds (nitric acid trihydrate HNO3.3H2O ), also known
as nacreous clouds, are clouds in the winter polar stratosphere at altitudes of
15,000–25,000 meters (50,000–80,000 ft). They are implicated in the
formation of ozone holes; their effects on ozone depletion arise because they
support chemical reactions that produce active chlorine which catalyzes ozone
destruction, and also because they remove gaseous nitric acid, perturbing
nitrogen and chlorine cycles in a way which increases ozone destruction.
PSC FORMATION AT COLD
TEMPERATURES
PSC formation
Frost point of water

Seasonal PSCs in the Antarctic stratosphere
Polar Vortex influence on
Atmospheric Chemistry
Tropospheric ozone
Ground-level Ozone
• Don’t confuse stratospheric
ozone with ground-level ozone
• Ground-level ozone - ozone
produced in the lower
troposphere; a component of
photochemical smog
• Photochemical smog is
generated by UV light Los Angeles, CA photochemical smog
interacting with fossil fuel
combustion gases; especially
nitrogen oxides (NOx)
Ground-level Ozone
• NOx + UV ----> N + O; subsequently this
reaction, O2 + O ---> O3 , generates
ground-level ozone
• You’ve probably smelled ground-level
ozone after a nearby lightning strike
Sources of tropospheric ozone
• Natural (small effect):

Hydrocarbons released by plants and soil
Leakage from upper atmosphere
• By-product of human activities (big effect):
Fossil fuel emissions (Amount has doubled since 1900)
Exposure to sufficiently high levels of
ozone can affect human health, vegetation,
and some organic and synthetic materials.
HUMAN HEALTH:
• Irritation of the respiratory system, causing coughing, throat
irritation, and/or an uncomfortable sensation in the chest.
• Reduced lung function, making it more difficult to breathe deeply
and vigorously. Breathing may become more rapid and more shallow
than normal, and a person's ability to engage in vigorous activities
may be limited.
• Aggravation of asthma. When ozone levels are high, more people
with asthma have attacks that require a doctor's attention or use of
medication. One reason this happens is that ozone makes people
more sensitive to allergens, which in turn trigger asthma attacks.
• Increased susceptibility to respiratory infections.
• Inflammation and damage to the lining of the lungs. Within a few
days
VEGETATION:
Visible damage to plant foliage and a decrease in productivity
and yield.
MATERIALS:
Synthetic elastic materials can become brittle and crack, while
textiles and dyes tend to fade faster than usual. According to
some estimates, losses may exceed $1 billion per year in the
United States.
Ozone, alone or in combination with sulfur
dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2),
accounts for 90% of the annual crop losses
in the U.S. that are caused by air pollution.
When would you expect to have the greatest ozone
concentrations: morning, afternoon, or evening?
High ozone levels often

occur during the warm
summer months—
especially in the
afternoon, once sunlight
has had a chance to
"cook" exhaust fumes
from peak morning
traffic.
What can be done about ozone
pollution?
Control primary pollutants (vehicle exhaust fumes

and fossil fuel emissions).
Governments can pass regulations;
what can individuals do?
You can help cut down on overall

automobile emissions by:
• Making sure the pollution-control equipment on
your vehicle is operating efficiently and that your
vehicle is properly tuned.
• Driving at moderate speeds and avoiding jack-
rabbit starts from stop signs and traffic lights.
• Using public transportation or car pools whenever
possible.
• Reducing the demand on power utilities by
conserving energy at home and at work.
Can we take “bad” ozone and dump it in
the stratosphere?
So why can't we take all of this "bad" ozone and blast it up into the
stratosphere? The answer lies in the vast quantities needed and ozone's
instability in the dynamic atmosphere. Ozone molecules don't last very
long, with or without human intervention. The vehicle necessary to
transport such enormous amounts of ozone into the stratosphere does
not exist, and, if it did, it would require so much fuel that the resulting
pollution might undo any positive effect. Rather than seek such
grandiose solutions, we need to decrease the production of those
chemicals that break down ozone in the stratosphere and help create
ozone in the troposphere.
The ozone hole is here to stay for at least about 50 years before the
ozone levels will start to return to their normal levels. Many ideas of
trying to manually repair the ozone hole have been looked at. The most
obvious solution would be to manually add ozone to the depleted areas
of the stratosphere. Unfortunately, that is not a feasible solution.
Can CFCs be used for goodness instead
of evil?
From what we do know about the Antarctic stratospheric
mechanics, the ozone levels have worked out a balance even with
depleted levels. Any ozone that we would artificially add would
most likely be destroyed and would not help our problem in the
long run. A more futuristic approach is to destroy the CFC's when
they are in the troposphere with high-powered infrared lasers
located on mountainsides. CFC molecules can absorb up to 30
infrared photons before they are destroyed, so a powerful blast
would have to be a maintained. It is thought, however, that the
infrared laser beams would be shifted out of the needed frequency
range before they got to the level of the atmosphere where the
CFC's were targeted to be destroyed. Another possible plan is to
dump about 50,000 tons of ethane or propane into the Antarctic
stratosphere each spring.
Can CFCs be used for goodness instead
of evil?
The chemicals would transform active ozone-depleting chlorine

into non-ozone depleting HC1. The hydrocarbons (propane and
ethane) unfortunately would decompose in about a year, so this
expensive process would have to be repeated annually. Right now,
there are no official plans to try to "fix" the ozone hole in the
Antarctic because we don't know enough about stratospheric
mechanics to do so. Our trying to fix the problem might make the
problem even worse, or impossible to repair. For
now, we
are stuck with an ozone-depleted Antarctic.
Note: There is one theoretical use for CFC's that may help us in the long run. When our civilization turns to another
planet to live one, we will need to terraform the atmosphere to meet our needs. One idea is that CFC's could be
put into Mars' atmosphere to start a controlled greenhouse effect that would heat up the atmosphere to a
habitable level.
Life in the future?
Chronology of major ozone events
•1970's: Scientists first discover that CFC's might harm the ozone layer.
•1974: Rowland and Molina, chemists at the University of California at Irvine, discover
the ozone-depleting effects of CFC's.
•1976: NASA expands research to include ozone data.
•March 1978: U.S. becomes first country to put limits on CFC use and a ban of CFC
propellants. · 1980's: Other countries start to phase out CFC's.
•1985: British scientists first discover the ozone hole over Antarctica. · Sept. 16, 1987:
The US and 23 different countries sign the Montreal Protocol, which was a plan to cut
the production and use of CFC's and other halons in half by 1999.
•1989: Congress puts a tax on CFC's and other ozone depleting chemicals.
•June 1990: Montreal Protocol was revised to eliminate use and production of CFC's by
the year 2000 and to make a $240 million fund to help developing countries find
alternatives to using CFC's and other ozone harmful chemicals.
•Nov. 1990: Clean Air Amendments were put in effect in the US which would eliminate
halons, CFC's, and carbon tetrachloride by the year 2000, methyl chloroform by 2002,
and hydrochloroflourocarbons by 2030.
•Sept. 12, 1991: UARS satellite is launched.
•Oct. 22, 1991: UPEP releases studies that show that ozone depletion has occurred
world-wide, even overpopulated northern hemispheric countries.
•Feb 11, 1992: President Bush states that the US will stop CFC production by
December 31, 1995.
What is being done?
• Fortunately, there has been a big international
effort to stop the production of CFCs and other
ozone Depleting Substances (ODSs).
• Decreased use of CFCs and other ODSs has
already resulted in a slowdown in the increase in
ozone depletion.
• The ozone layer should recover over the next 50
years or so as the atmospheric concentrations of
CFCs and other ozone-depleting compounds
slowly decay.
What is being done about the
depletion of the ozone layer?
• More then 180 countries, recognized the
threats posed by ozone depletion and in
1987 adopted a treaty called the Montreal
Protocol to phase out the production and use
of ozone-depleting substances.
If we stop using CFCs, will the
ozone hole quickly close up?
Unfortunately, the CFCs released this

year could still cause damage a century
from now (CFC lifetime is 16 to 1700
years).
Stabilized CFC’s atmospheric concentration
CFC’s stabilized during

1990s
CFC’s increased during

1980s
The Antarctic Ozone Hole Will Recover
Model simulations suggest the size of the hole should return to its
pre-1980 levels by about 2075
Meteotsunami Sunda Strait, LITERATURE REVIEW
Indonesia
Kenanga TC
Credit by: NOAA, 2018 Krakatoa mt.
FACTORS
1. Sea surface temperature at least 26.50C with mixing layer
dept at least 50 m  cause overlying atmosphere to be
unstable enough to sustain convection and thunderstorm.
2. Rapid cooling with height, which allows the release of the
heat of condensation  the power of the tropical cyclone.
3. High humidity in the lower-to-mid troposphere  favorable
for disturbance to develop
4. Small/low wind shear  to keep the power in the storm
circulation system.
5. Generally need to form over 50 of latitude or 555 km away
from equator  to get enough coriolis force to creating a
circulation.
6. Pre-existing disturbed weather system  like thunderstorm
The Origin of
Sea Thunderstorm
ITCZ InterTropical Convergence Zone

Tropical Wave
 Sirkulasi Global dan ITCZ
Untuk Bumi yang tidak
berotasi, konveksi akan
membentuk satu sel
simetris sederhana
disetiap belahan Bumi
ME 2112 -- Zadrach L. Dupe

The Coriolis Effect
Coriolis effect
direction and
strength. The Coriolis
effect acts to deflect
the paths of winds or
ocean currents to the
8.7% 50N
right in the northern
hemisphere and to
the left in the
southern hemisphere
 = 7.29x10-5 s-1 as viewed from the
Sin 50 = 0.087 starting point.
Surface Winds on an
Ideal Earth
A parcel of air in motion near the

surface is subjected to three
influences: the pressure gradient that
propels the parcel toward low
pressure; the Coriolis effect that
deflects the parcel, and the frictional
forces of the ground surface that slow
the parcel down.
Surface Winds on an Ideal Earth
Global surface winds on

an ideal Earth. This
schematic diagram of
global surface winds and
pressures shows the
features of an ideal Earth,
without the disrupting
effect of oceans and
continents and the
variation of the seasons.
Surface winds are shown
on the disk of the Earth,
while the cross section at
the right shows winds
aloft.
Diagram tiga dimensi pola sirkulasi
global akan tampak seperti gambar
samping dan foto satelit bawah
menunjukkan kondisi ril pada
tanggal 9 Maret 2014
• The trade winds blow from the

northeast in the Northern
Hemisphere and from the southeast
in the Southern Hemisphere.
• A region of convergence
(Intertropical Convergence Zone --
ITCZ) creates a band of
thunderstormsME near the
2112 equator.
-- Zadrach L. Dupe
Global atmospheric circulation animation due to the sun movement
Include the ITCZ
ME 2112 -- Zadrach L. Dupe

TROPICAL WAVE:
– A type of atmospheric trough, an elongated area
of relatively low air pressure, oriented north to
south, wich moves from east to west across the
tropics causing areas of cloudiness dan
thunderstorms
Conditions for Tropical Wave
Development
• The wave must be north or south of the equator.
– Coriolis force is zero at the equator.
• Conditional Instability γd ≥ γ ≥ γs
• Weak vertical shear
• Warm sea-surface temperatures (SST)
– Typically SSTs are greater than 26oC
• Since pressure gradients are small near the equator,
we look at the flow of wind to find trough regions.
• A trough or ripple in the easterly flow is known as a
“tropical wave.”
• Surface convergence occurs on the east side of this
wave and surface divergence occurs on the west
side.
• Thunderstorms tend to form on the east side of the
tropical wave.
Siklon Tropis
Gangguan Depresi Badai Siklon

Tropis Tropis Tropis Tropis
4 tahap pertumbuhan Siklon Tropis:

1. Gangguan Tropis
2. Depresi Tropis
3. Badai Tropis dan
4. Siklon Tropis atau Taifun atau Hurricane
• Gangguan Tropis
- Kumpulan beberapa sistem hujan badai (thunderstorms) dengan isobar
sedikit melengkung.
- Kecepatan angin kurang dari 20 knot
• Depresi Tropis
- Kumpulan Thunderstorm lebih terorganisir
- Ada satu isobar tertutup
- Kecapatan angin antara 20-34 knot.
• Badai Tropis
- Sistem berotasi berlawanan jarum jam di BBU dan sebaliknya di BBS,
tetapi belum ada “MATA”
- Ada 2 (dua) isobar tertutup
- Kecapatan Angin antara 35-64 knot.
- Pada saat ini badai diberi nama.
• Siklon Tropis atau Hurricane atau Taifun
- Mata siklon sudah terbentuk
- Ada minimal 3 (tiga) isobar tertutup
- Kecepatan angin melebihi 64 knot (> 74 mph atau > 119 kmph)
Key Structural Features of a Mature Tropical Cyclone
A few structural elements are common to all tropical cyclones. The (i) boundary layer
inflow, (ii) eyewall, (iii) cirrus shield, (iv) rainbands, and (v) upper tropospheric outflow
are found in all tropical depressions and tropical storms. As these storms become more
intense, a (vi) clear central eye becomes visible from satellite.
(a) Conceptual model of the main structural elements of tropical cyclones. Notice the (i)
boundary layer inflow, (ii) clear central eye, (iii) eyewall, (iv) cirrus shield, (v) rainbands,
and (vi) upper tropospheric outflow. (b) Close-up view of the boundary layer flow in a
tropical cyclone.
Storm Structure
• The main parts of a tropical cyclone are the rainbands, the eye,
and the eyewall. Air spirals in toward the center in a counter-
clockwise pattern in the norther hemisphere (clockwise in the
southern hemisphere), and out the top in the opposite direction.
In the very center of the storm, air sinks, forming an "eye" that is
mostly cloud-free.
Storm Structure
• The Eye
– The hurricane's center is
a relatively calm,
generally clear area of
sinking air and light
winds that usually doesn't
exceed 15 mph (24 kph)
and is typically 20-40
miles (32-64 km) across.
An eye will usually
develop when the
maximum sustained wind
speeds go above 74 mph
(119 kph) and is the
calmest part of the
storm.
Storm Structure
• The eyewall
– consists of a ring of tall
thunderstorms that
produce heavy rains and
usually the strongest
winds. Changes in the
structure of the eye and
eyewall can cause
changes in the wind
speed, which is an
indicator of the storm's
intensity. The eye can
grow or shrink in size,
and double (concentric)
eyewalls can form.
Storm Structure
• Rainbands
– Curved bands of clouds
and thunderstorms that
trail away from the eye
wall in a spiral fashion.
These bands are capable
of producing heavy
bursts of rain and wind,
as well as tornadoes.
There are sometimes gaps
in between spiral rain
bands where no rain or
wind is found.
Storm Structure
• Tropical Cyclone
Size
– Typical hurricane sizes/
tropical cyclones are
about 300 miles (483
km) wide although
they can vary
considerably.
– The relative sizes of the
largest and smallest - Largest TC: Typhoon Winnie
tropical cyclones on 1575 km
record as compared to - Eye size: the largest 370 km
the United States. the smallest 3,7 km
- Lowest pressure: Thypoon Tip 870 hPa
Schematic of the cross-section through a tropical
cyclone showing the vertical airflow and microphysics in
the eyewall and rainbands.
Visible satellite images of a mature tropical cyclone
showing the eye and eyewall. Notice that the eyewall
slopes outward from the surface, creating the "stadium
effect".
A
B
C
A = Hurricane
B = Typhoon
C = Tropical Cyclone
Season lengths and averages
Season Season Tropical
Basin Hurricanes Refs
Start end Storms
North Atlantic 1-Jun 30-Nov 12.1 6.4 [44]
Eastern Pacific 15-May 30-Nov 16.6 8.9 [44]
Western Pacific 1-Jan 31-Dec 26 16.5 [44]
North Indian 1-Jan 31-Dec 4.8 1.5 [44]
South-West [44][45]
1-Jul 30-Jun 9.3 5
Indian
Australian
1-Nov 30-Apr 11 [46]
region
Southern
1-Nov 30-Apr 7 4 [47]
Pacific
Global 1-Jan 31-Dec 86 46.9 [44]
Characteristics:
TD TS H/Ty
SFC winds <= 34 kt <= 64 kts > 64 kts
Avg. SFC P 1000mb 990mb 960mb
Vis. Features No eye/wall No eye/wall Have eye
Wind shear > 15 kts < 15 kts 0
Vortex Cyclonic Anticyclonic

throughout above 300mb
Active < 1% 1% 4-5%
convection
500mb T Colder than Warmer than
environment environment
North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific: Saffir-
Simpson Scale
The Saffir–Simpson scale was initially intended to provide a link between the observed damage and the
effects of wind, pressure and storm surge that could lead to such damage. In the first table, the hurricane
categories are related to maximum sustained winds (1–minute average and 10 meters above ground) and
minimum central pressure. Maximum wind speed is used to determine the category of a hurricane.
Table 8-2.1. The Saffir-Simpson Scale: Cat 3-5

are referred to as Major Hurricanes.
Saffir-Simpson
Maximum Sustained Wind Speed Expected Level
Hurricane
(VMAX; 1-minute average)b of Damage
Category
m s-1 km h-1 mph
1 33–42 119–153 74–95 Minimal
2 43–49 154–177 96–110 Moderate
3 50–58 178–208 111–129 Extensive
4 59–69 209–251 130–156 Extreme
5 70+ 252+ 157+ Catastrophic
Australian Region: Gust Wind Speed
Ranges for Tropical Cyclones
A tropical cyclone scale linking maximum gust (3–5 second, 10 meter) wind speeds to expected damage
in the maximum wind zone has been instituted in the Australian Region. As with the Saffir–Simpson scale,
the weakest tropical cyclones are designated as Category 1, with the strongest possible tropical cyclones
being assigned Category 5.
Table 8-2.2. Australian region Tropical Cyclone categories based on gust wind speed.
Category 2 or higher are referred to as Severe Tropical Cyclone.
Range of strongest gusts

Categories Summary Description of Typical Damage Expected
(km h-1) (m s-1)
Negligible house damage. Damage to some crops, trees and
1 < 125 < 34
caravans.
Minor house damage. Significant damage to trees and caravans.
2 125 – 170 34 – 47
Heavy damage to some crops. Risk of power failure.
Some roof and structural damage. Some caravans destroyed.
3 170 – 225 47 – 63
Power failure likely.
Significant roofing loss and structural damage. Many caravans
4 225 – 280 63 – 78 destroyed and blown away. Dangerous airborne debris.
Widespread power failure.
5 > 280 > 78 Extremely dangerous with widespread destruction.
Western North Pacific and Indian Ocean Tropical
Cyclone Intensity
The tropical cyclone intensity scale in these last three basins is based upon the maximum sustained (10–
minute average) surface (10 meter) wind speeds. While the wind speed ranges in these basins are
consistent, their naming conventions vary.
Table 8-2.3 Western North Pacific and Indian Ocean categories.
Range of 10-min Range of 10-min Categories by Region

mean wind mean wind Western
North South
North
(km h-1) (m s-1) Indian Indian
Pacific
Tropical Tropical Tropical
60 – 119 17 – 33
Storm Storm Storm
Tropical
120 – 227 34 – 63 Typhoon
Severe Cyclone
Cyclonic Severe
Super Storm Tropical
> 227 >63 Typhoon
Cyclone
Conversions for units of wind speed: 1 m s-1 = 3.6
km h-1, 1.94 knots, and 2.237 mph.
Name List of Nort Atlantic Harricane
Humbert
Andrea Barry Chantal Dorian Erin Fernand Gabrielle Ingrid Jerry Karen
o
2013
Sebastie
Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Tanya Van Wendy
n
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias Josephine Kyle
2014
Laura Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky Wilfred
Claudett
Ana Bill Danny Erika Fred Grace Henri Ida Joaquin Kate
e
2015
Larry Mindy Nicholas Odette Peter Rose Sam Teresa Victor Wanda
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
2016
Lisa Matthew Nicole Otto Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter
Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harvey Irma Jose Katia
2017
Lee Maria Nate Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney
Alberto Beryl Chris Debby Ernesto Florence Gordon Helene Isaac Joyce Kirk
2018
Leslie Michael Nadine Oscar Patty Rafael Sara Tony Valerie William
Sources for tropical cyclone names.[1][2]
Additional Names From Indonesia
List A Anggrek Bakung Cempaka Dahlia Flamboyan Kenanga Lili Mawar Seroja Teratai
List B Anggur Belimbing Duku Jambu Lengkeng Mangga Nangka Pisang Rambutan Sawo
CYLONE NAME – AUSTRALIA REGION
Anika Billy Charlotte Dominic Ellie Freddy Gabrielle Herman Ilsa Jasper Kirrily
Lincoln Megan Neville Olga Paul Robyn Sean Tasha Vince Zelia ------
Anthony Bianca Carlos Dianne Errol Fina Grant Heidi Iggy Jasmine Koji
Lua Mitchell Narelle Oswald Peta Rusty Sandra Tim Victoria Zane ------
Alessia Bruce Christine Dylan Edna Fletcher Gillian Hadi Ita Jack Kate
Lam Marcia Nathan Olwyn Quang Raquel Stan Tatjana Uriah Yvette ------
Alfred Blanche Caleb Debbie Ernie Frances Greg Hilda Ira Joyce Kelvin
Linda Marcus Nora Owen Penny Riley Savannah Trevor Veronica Wallace ------
Ann Blake Claudia Damien Esther Ferdinand Gretel Harold Imogen Joshua Kimi
Lucas Marian Noah Odette Paddy Ruby Seth Tiffany Verdun ------ ------
Additional List From FIJI
Ana Bina Cody Dovi Eva Fili Gina Hagar Irene Judy Kerry Lola Mal
List A
Vaian Xavie
Nat Olof Pita Rae Shelia Tam Urmil Wati Yani Zita
u r
Arthur Becky Chip Denia Elisa Fotu Glen Hettie Innis Joni Ken Lin Mick
List B
Nisha Oli Pat Rene Sarah Tomas Ului Vania Wilma ------ Yasi Zaka
Atu Bune Cyril Daphne Evan Freda Garry Heley Ian June Kofi Lusi Mike
List C
Winsto
Nute Odile Pam Reuben Solo Tuni Ula Victor ------ Yalo Zena
n
Mon
Amos Bart Colin Donna Ella Frank Gita Hali Iris Jo Kala Leo
a
List D
Neil Oma Pami Rita Sarai Tino ------ Vicky Wiki ------ Yolande Zazu
Hurricane Archive
Damage
Year Storms Hurricanes Deaths (millions USD) Retired Names
2015 12 4 89 >590 2 - Erika, Joaquin
2014 9 6 17 232 0
2013 13 2 47 1,510 1 - Ingrid
2012 19 10 199 75,000+ 1 - Sandy
2011 19 7 100 21,000 1 - Irene
2010 21 12 287 12,356 2 - Igor, Tomas
2009 11 3 6 77 0
2008 16 8 761 24,945 3 - Gustav, Ike, Paloma
2007 15 6 341 50 3 - Dean, Felix, Noel
2006 10 5 5 500 0
5 - Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Stan,
2005 28 15 3,483 115,520 Wilma
OBSERVATION
Radar
OBSERVATION
Satellite
Foto Satelit menampilkan ke-4 tahapan
pertumbuhan siklon tropis
Daniel
BMKG
PREDICTION
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) JAKARTA
Issued Thursday 21 May 2020 22:27 WIB
http://meteo.bmkg.go.id/data/tc/IDJ22000.html
Worldwide Tropical Cyclone Centers
Hurricanes are tropical storms that form over the North Atlantic Ocean and
Northeast Pacific.
Cyclones are formed over the South Pacific and Indian Ocean.
Typhoons are formed over the Northwest Pacific Ocean
Hurricane Hazards
• A)Storm Surge
• B)Wind Damage
• C)Heavy rains (Inland flooding)
• D)Associated tornados
• About 90% of fatalities are caused by

coastal and inland storm surge
Hurricane Hazards
• What is a storm surge?
It is an 8-160 km wide dome of water that sweeps
over the coastline during landfall.
Storm Surge
Hurricane Hazards
• Storm Surge
 The abnormal rise in the ocean level associated with the hurricane
landfall.
 As the hurricane approaches the coast, it “pushes” a large mass of water
in front of it.
 When this pile of water reaches the coast, the water levels can rise as
much as 7 meters (~22 feet).
 Usually 80 - 160 km wide.
 Not a “tidal wave” or tsunami.
 The dramatic rise in the sea level can cause catastrophic damage.
 The greatest storm surge is associated with:
– Stronger hurricanes
– High tide
– Shape of the shore
Storm Surge
Animasi pergerakkan Siklon Tropis ketika mendekati garis pantai
Storm Surge datang 3-5 jam sebelum pusat badai menerpa pantai
Pantai curam
Pantai Landai
Di BBU Kecepatan Angin Sebelah Kerusakan Lebih besar terjadi di

Kanan ST > dari yang di Kiri dan Pantai yang landai
Sebaliknya di BBS
Hurricane Hazards
• Strong Winds
– Hurricane sustained wind speeds are in
excess of 74 mph.
– Occasionally can get as high as 155 kts.
– Winds are typically stronger in Pacific
storms -- storms have more time grow in
the larger Pacific ocean.
– Wind damage can be significant especially
to weakly built houses.
– Spin-up vortices can cause very strong and
damaging wind gusts.
Wind Damage
• The two storms
causing the most
widespread wind
damage in the US were
Hurricanes Camille
(1969) and Andrew
(1992)
An entire neighborhood leveled by
Andrew (1992)
Hurricane Hazards
• Inland Flooding
– Torrential rains can, especially if the
hurricane moves slowly inland, can cause
substantial flooding.
• Camille (1969)
– Inland in Mississippi
– Flooding in Virginia
• Agnes (1972)
– Inland in Florida
– $6.3 Billion in damage along the East Coast
– Flooding in Pennsylvania
• Alberto (1994)
– Never a hurricane! (Tropical Storm)
– Stalled over Georgia -- Americus, GA received 21”
Inland Floofing
Severe TC Tracy
Cyclone Tracy 24 Dec 1974
TC Bhola
Hurricane Wind Damage
Flooding in New York
Hurricane Sandy – October 2012
Death of a Hurricane
• Moves out of the warm, moist tropical air.
• Moves over land.
– Loss of moisture source
– Increased surface friction
– Temperature of the land is cooler than the
warm ocean
• Moved under unfavorable large scale flow.
– High shear can rip a storm apart
– Large scale subsidence can inhibit
convection
Hurricane Warnings
• Hurricane warnings are designed to protect
human life and their property.
– Possible Evacuations
• Detection techniques
– Satellites
– Radar
– Aircraft Reconnaissance
– Data Buoys
– Weather Channel Reporters!
Satellite Detection of Camille
NIMBUS III Satellite -- 21 August 1969

Radar Detection of Hurricanes
Hurricane Andrew -- August 24, 1992

Aircraft Detection of Hurricanes
WP-3 Aircraft Dropsondes

Aircraft Detection of Hurricanes
WP-3 Aircraft Dropsondes

Tropical Storm Warnings
• Tropical Storm Watch
– Possible tropical storm conditions expected in
the next 36 hours.
– Prepare to take appropriate action.
• Tropical Storm Warning
– Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
next 24 hours.
– Take action!
Hurricane Warnings
• Hurricane Watch
– Possible hurricane conditions expected in the
next 36 hours.
– Prepare to take appropriate action.
• Hurricane Warning
– Hurricane conditions are expected in the next
24 hours.
– Get out of Dodge!
Hurricane Warning!
Building for Disaster?
• 45 million people now live along hurricane-
prone regions in the U.S.
• Gulf Coast population:
– 1960 -- 5.2 Million
– 1990 -- 10.1 Million
– Doubled in only 30 years.
• Florida to Virginia
– 1960 -- 4.4 Million
– 1990 -- 9.2 Million
Can We Evacuate?
• Hurricane evacuation times currently range
from 15 - 30 hours depending on the locale.
• Current warnings are only valid for 24 hours.
• Can the transportation infrastructure handle
such a mass exodus quickly enough?
• We are constructing more and larger

dwellings along our hurricane-prone
coastlines.
Miami, FL
Better Construction
• Improved construction techniques may help alleviate
some storm damage.
– Reinforcing seawalls
– Creating larger sand dunes and beaches
– Building housing on “stilts”
– Better tie-downs between the foundation and the
walls and between the walls and the roof.
• Not much will stop a 7 m storm surge.
Is This Better?
Prediction Difficulty
1. We still have difficulty predicting the
precise landfall of most hurricanes.
2. Some hurricanes can “loop.”
3. What if we evacuate and the hurricane
goes elsewhere -- the “Cry Wolf” problem.
4. False alarms are still high and many
people become apathetic.
– We see that here with tornado watches and
warnings!
Prediction Difficulty
Hurricane Elena -- 28 August - 4 September 1985

Possible Solutions
• Increased Research on Hurricane Prediction
• Evacuation Studies
• Emergency procedures in the event
evacuation is not feasible
• Population growth management
• Hurricane education
• Improved construction building codes
• Wetland management
• Hurricane Modification ????
Apa kaitannya dengan Perubahan
Iklim dan Pemanasan Global
FACTORS
1. Sea surface temperature at least 26.50C with mixing layer dept
at least 50 m  cause overlying atmosphere to be unstable
enough to sustain convection and thunderstorm.
2. Rapid cooling with height, which allows the release of the heat
of condensation  the power of the tropical cyclone.
3. High humidity in the lower-to-mid troposphere  favorable for
disturbance to develop
4. Small/low wind shear  to keep the power in the storm
circulation system.
5. Generally need to form over 50 of latitude or 555 km away from
equator  to get enough coriolis force to creating a circulation.
6. Pre-existing disturbed weather system  like thunderstorm
Sea Surface Temperature
• There are two complementary lines of
evidence used to diagnose climate change
effects upon hurricanes including
1. historical records of observed activity and
2. computer modeling.
Atlantic Records
• Substantial year to year
variability in number of
storms
• No clear trend in the
number of storms
Landsea 1996
North Atlantic Hurricane Season
Hurricane season for Atlantic Basin: 1

June to 30 November, with peak from
mid-August to late October
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/
Atlantic Triple Hurricane
Atlantic Records
Goldenberg et al. 2001
• Number of intense hurricanes is much more cyclic in

nature
• Above average 1940s-1960s, below average 1970s-
1994
• Abrupt shift in hurricane record in 1995
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)
ACE = 10-4 Σ v2max …...... (104 kn2)
• The sum of the squares of the estimated 6-hourly maximum sustained

wind speeds for all named systems while they are at least tropical storm
strength
• During the 1995-2004 period the basin averaged 13.4 storms, with 7.8
hurricanes, 3.8 major hurricanes, and an ACE index value of 169% of the
median .This contrasts sharply with an ACE value of 70% of the median
during the 1970-1994 period (Trenberth,2005)
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/Slide2.JPG
El Nino Index
Atlantic SST changes
Trenberth 2005 Goldenberg et al. 2001
• Nonlinear upward trend in SSTs over the 20th century

• Despite the multidecadal fluctuations that are evident, the last decade
(1995-2004) features the highest decadal average on record by > 0.1°C
• Positive anomaly in the Atlantic Multidecadal Mode
• Many of the peaks in this figure correspond well with the peaks in the ACE
index
• There is currently no consensus on whether
climate change is driving an increase in the
global number of tropical cyclones.
From the NOAA GFDL website:
"In summary, it is premature to conclude with high
confidence that increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas
concentrations from human activities have had a
detectable impact on Atlantic basin hurricane activity,
although increasing greenhouse gases are strongly
linked to global warming...
Human activities may have already caused other

changes in tropical cyclone activity that are not yet
detectable due to the small magnitude of these changes
compared to estimated natural variability, or due to
observational limitations.”
Updated Climatologies
Murakami et al. (2020)

Only model simulations
that included human
influences, could
reproduce the actual
observed pattern of
cyclones from 1980-
2018.
Prof Kevin Trenberth (NCAR) :
“What is expected with climate change is that
there is an increase in tropical cyclone activity,
which means increases in number, duration,
frequency, lifetime, size and intensity. In fact,
we expect some decrease in number, as
shown in this paper, but we expect increases
in intensity, size and lifetime.”
Introduction: Changing Seas
As our world warms, global sea levels are rising, and the coasts as we know them
are changing.
More than half of the world's population Coastal development has boomed in the last 50
lives within 40 miles (60 kilometers) of the years. This growth at the coasts has occurred
coast, where fertile land, port access, and without regard to rising seas.
recreation abound. In the U.S. alone, roughly
3.7 million people live within a few feet of
high tide.
But as tides and storm surges encroach inland, and coastal land sinks or subsides, the people
and environment of the coastal zone face a wide range of impacts.
Changes in sea level are nothing new. Global sea Over the roughly 2,000 years from 0 AD to
level has fluctuated throughout Earth's history the 20th century, sea level changed relatively
because of changes in land and sea topography, little. But in the last 100 years or so, average
growth or melting of polar ice caps, fluctuations global sea levels rose dramatically.
in seawater density, and other factors.
Researchers use two different
measurements of sea level.
"Relative sea level" is the height of
the ocean relative to the land
elevation at a particular location.
"Absolute sea level" measures the
height of the ocean surface above
the center of the Earth. In recent
years the rate of sea level rise
appears to have accelerated. When
averaged over all the world's
oceans,
using mainly tide gauge measurements, absolute sea level has increased at an average rate of
0.06 in. (0.15 cm) per year from 1870 to 2008. From 1993 to 2008, using satellite altimetry data,
average sea level rose roughly twice as fast as the long-term trend, at a rate of about 0.12 in. (0.3
cm) per year.
Many processes contribute to
changing sea level, and several of
these are associated with climate
variability and change. They include:
• Thermal expansion of ocean

water—when water warms, it
takes up more space.
• Inputs of water to the ocean from
melting glaciers, ice caps, and ice
sheets.
• Modifications in terrestrial water
storage, from processes like ground
water extraction.
• Shifts in the land caused by, for example, sediment compaction, erosion, or land lifting when
heavy glaciers melt. These cause local or regional sea level changes.
Ocean currents also influence a coast's sea level by pushing water toward the land or pulling it
away. For example, changes in the Florida Current and the Gulf Stream transport are known to
affect coastal water levels. Currents also have normal seasonal and decadal oscillations in
response to long-term variations in the global wind fields and climate oscillations.
Tools and Research
To understand sea level change, researchers
compare multiple global datasets taken over several
decades. They use various tools, including satellites
that measure the topography of the ocean, Earth's
gravity field, sea surface temperature, ice sheets,
ocean salinity, and more.
Since 1993, scientists have relied on a series of records

from the TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, and Jason-2
satellite missions to construct a global and regional sea
level trend composite.
Tide gauges, electronic
sensors that measure
and record sea level
height, are another
important tool. Gauges
are preferably co-
located with continuous
GPS systems.
Historical records and

radiocarbon dating of sea floor
A global array of sediments and corals offer
3,000 drifting important clues about past sea
profiling floats, called levels. This data informs our
ARGO floats, measure understanding of present and
the temperature and future sea heights.
salinity of the upper
ocean.
Observed Changes
Climate models, satellite data,

and hydrographic observations
all demonstrate that, while
absolute sea level has
increased steadily, relative sea
level is not rising uniformly
everywhere. This figure reflects
the spatial variability of global
sea level trends from satellite
altimeter data.
Sea level does not rise or fall uniformly as shown in this map. Sea level trends
are also reflected in patterns of ocean heat storage.
In the United States, relative
sea levels have risen unevenly
along the coasts over the past
50 years. On the Mid-Atlantic
coast and parts of the Gulf
coast, sea levels rose by as
much as 8 in. (20 cm). In Alaska
and the Pacific Northwest,
tectonic plates lift the land up
faster than the sea is rising, so
relative sea level has fallen in
this region. Other geologic
processes can also impact sea
level. For example, post-glacial
rebound causes continental
uplift, and sediment deposits in
large river deltas cause
continental sinking.
About 90% of the warming the Earth has
experienced has been absorbed by the oceans,
causing thermal expansion.
Thermal expansion and the melting of glaciers and

small ice caps caused most of 20th century sea
level rise. But Earth has nearly 160,000 glaciers,
each one capable of responding in its own way to
climate change. While nearly all glaciated regions
on Earth are showing signs of ice loss, forecasting
how glaciers will contribute to sea level in the
coming century is a challenging task.
The Antarctic Ice Sheet extends more than 5 million
square miles (14 million square kilometers), while the
Greenland Ice Sheet spreads over about 656,000
square miles (1.7 million square kilometers).
(Earth surface 509,805,891 million square kilometers)
Researchers can now measure average rates of snowfall
and ice flow from the large ice sheets, but they are still
working to understand how, where, when, and how
much the ice sheets will melt.
Changes in these large ice sheets are critical for
forecasting sea level rise. Since its launch in January
2003, the ICESat satellite has been measuring the ice
sheets' changing thickness. This data visualization
illustrates changes in elevation over the Greenland ice
sheet between 2003 and 2006.
Future Projections
Projected higher global air temperatures are

expected to cause increased melting of glaciers
and ice caps and will lead to higher ocean
water temperatures that will further raise sea
levels.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
produces the most robust reports on climate change, which
are summaries of thousands of peer-reviewed studies. In
their 2007 report, the IPCC estimated that the global average
sea level will rise by about 9 to 20 in. (22-50 cm) by 2100
relative to 1980-1999 under a range of greenhouse gas
emissions scenarios. It is important to note that these
estimates assumed that melting from Greenland and
Antarctica would continue at the same rates as observed
from 1993-2003. However, new research suggests that the
IPCC predictions may be too low, and that sea level rise could
be closer to 3 ft (1 m).
One unknown is what will happen in the coming years to the planet's major
ice sheets. Meltwater contributions from Greenland and Antarctica have
increased in recent years, which could also make the IPCC's projections too
low.
Potential Impacts
Higher sea levels directly impact coastal areas, which
are the most densely populated and economically
active land areas on Earth.
Infrastructure such as ports and harbors,

industry, and an extensive built environment
are all concentrated in coastal regions.
Even a small amount of sea level rise can produce
major changes for coasts. In low-lying areas, a foot
and half of vertical rise (0.5 m) can cause inundation
far from the present shoreline. This image illustrates
how Charleston, South Carolina would be impacted
by that magnitude of sea level rise.
Impacts of rising sea levels will be felt most acutely

through changes in the intensity and frequency of
extreme events and from the combined effects of
high spring tides, storm surges, surface waves, and
flooding rivers.
In some areas, projections of sea level rise mean tidal
flooding that was once an occasional nuisance can become
a frequent hazard to residents and their property. In this
image from NOAA's Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding
Impacts viewer, the red color indicates shallow coastal
flooding areas. The graph shows predictions of changes in
the frequency and duration of current coastal flood events
for half-meter and one-meter sea level rise scenarios
compared to today's conditions.
More than 200 million people around the globe are already
vulnerable to coastal flooding. Rising population and
migration could increase this number to 800 million by the
2080s.
This map highlights regions that are most vulnerable to
coastal flooding. These projections of people at risk are
based on a scenario for the 2080s that assumes a global
sea level rise estimate of 18 in. (45 cm).
The coasts support important ecosystems that are

sensitive to sea levels and other changes. Rising sea
levels cause wetland loss, erosion of soft ground,
saltwater intrusion, rising water tables, and poor
drainage. Coastal infrastructure impedes
ecosystems' ability to adapt to rising sea levels. For
example, sea walls and jetties make it difficult for
mudflats and beaches to migrate inland as they have
during past periods of sea level rise.
Uncertainty about future emissions of greenhouse gases and
the associated climate response make it difficult to estimate the
timescales, magnitude, and rates of future sea level rise.
Because we don't know the details of how sea level rise will play
out in the future, and it is unclear which strategies people will
use to deal with changing sea levels, the actual consequences of
sea level rise remain uncertain.
How to Prepare
The two potential responses to sea level

rise are mitigation and adaptation. To be
most effective, mitigating, or reducing,
greenhouse gas emissions should occur on a
global scale, but individuals can start in
their homes and communities. Adaptation
happens locally or nationally. The IPCC
offers three approaches to adapting to
relative sea level rise: planned retreat,
accommodation, and protection.
With a planned retreat, humans exit the coast and let
natural systems respond without interference. Sea level
rise is already forcing some island populations to consider
moving to higher ground. The president of Kiribati, a low-
lying Pacific island nation threatened by rising seas, is
negotiating a land purchase in Fiji to help secure a future
for his people.
With accommodation, humans don't interfere

with natural systems but instead adjust how
they inhabit the coastal zone. Stilted homes are
one example of implementing this strategy.
The protection strategy relies on soft or hard
engineering, like the storm wall pictured here. East
Asia and Europe have the most developed and
extensive artificial protective systems.
Adaptation can mean both adjusting to the negative

effects of climate change as well as taking advantage
of any positive consequences of change. Adaptation
will require action from federal, state, tribal, and local
governments, the private sector, non-governmental
organizations, and community groups. Planners and
policy makers will need to consider a range of
possibilities since the risk of global mean sea level
rising by more than 3 ft (1 m) by 2100 cannot be
excluded.
Each nation's experience in managing and protecting its inhabitants, resources, and
infrastructure has been based on our relatively stable historic climate. But adaptation to climate
change requires an appreciation of possible conditions that lie outside our current experience.
In the short term, adaptation actions that can be most easily
implemented are low-cost strategies with win-win
outcomes—ones that offer immediate benefits and/or
reverse poor policies and practices. Often adaptations make
ecological and human structural systems more resilient and
healthy. Decision makers should also consider the relationship
between adaptive actions and mitigation. Adaptive actions
that increase greenhouse gas emissions should be evaluated
carefully to ensure that their benefits outweigh the risks.
Planners and decision makers need long-term forecasts of

global sea level rise, and information on short-term variability
and long-term sea level change on regional and local scales.
Perhaps more importantly, they need to know how future sea
levels will affect their community and their way of life.
Researchers are working to identify and quantify the causes
contributing to sea level change and to develop better models
with more reliable predictions.
PROYEKSI KENAIKAN MUKA LAUT INDONESIA
Kenaikan Muka Laut

Year
Luas Area yang Hilang (km2) (m)
2010 7,408 0.4
Sumber : 2050 30,120 0.56
Susandi,dkk. 2008
2100 90,260 1.1
> Terganggunya Batas Wilayah
Indonesia • Peningkatan Jumlah Pengungsi
• Hilangnya Habitat dan Spesies
> Gangguan terhadap Jaringan • Hilangnya lahan-lahan budidaya
Jalan Lintas dan Kereta Api • Berkurangnya Produktivitas Lahan
• Berkurangnya Produktivitas Pertanian
> Menggenangnya Air Laut • Berkurangnya Produktivitas Perikanan
> Rusaknya Ekosistem Pantai • Masalah Sumber Daya Air
Hilangnya Pulau-Pulau Sedang pada 2100
115 pulau
Sumatera Utara : Pulau Batu
Sumatera Barat : Pulau Sipora, Pulau Bagai Utara, Pulau Bagai Selatan
Kepulauan Riau : Pulau Singkep, Pulau Sebangka, Pulau Lingga, Pulau Abang Besar, Pulau Panuba, Pulau Benuwa, Pulau Tambelan, Pulau
Pinangseribu
Bangka Belitung : Pulau Belitung
Kalimantan Barat : Pulau Karimata ; Kalimantan Selatan : Pulau Laut, Pulau Sebuku
Jawa Timur : Pulau Giliraya, Pulau Gili-genteng, Pulau Puteran, Pulau Sapudi, Pulau Raas, Pulau Kangean
Bali : Pulau Nusa Penida ; NTB : Pulau Giligede,Sangeang; NTT : Pulau Solor, Pulau Pantar, Pulau Adonara
Sulawesi Selatan : Pulau Selayar, Pulau Tanah Pulau Jampea, Pulau Bonerate, Pulau Kaloatoa
Sulawesi Tenggara : Pulau Tukang Besi ; Sulawesi Tengah : Pulau Banggai
Maluku Utara : Pulau Mangole, Pulau Tubulai, Pulau Obi, Pulau Obilatu, Pulau Damar, Pulau Gebe
Maluku : Pulau Watubela, Pulau Wetar, Pulau Tanibar, Pulau Babar, Pulau Kai
West Papua : Pulau Rumberpon, Pulau Gag
Sumber : Susandi,dkk. 2008
Proyeksi Kenaikan Muka Laut
BANJARMASIN
Susandi. dkk, 2008
KERUGIAN EKONOMI AKIBAT
KENAIKAN MUKA LAUT DI BANJARMASIN
• Kerugian ekonomi di Banjarmasin (TH. 2050-2100)

Tahun Kerugian*) (106 US$)
2050 0,14
2100 0,69
*) Lahan
• Jumlah Pengungsi (TH. 2050-2100)
Tahun Jumlah Pengungsi (jiwa)
2050 13.509
2100 40.270
Susandi. dkk, 2008

Proyeksi Kenaikan Muka Laut
di Wilayah Bali
Kenaikan Muka Laut di Bali (2009 –
Base Line)
Luas Bali = 5.632 km2, Luas Terendam = 0 km2 Susandi. dkk, 2010
Kenaikan Muka Laut di Bali (2010)
Weather Shifts
Climate and weather events now take place
in a world that is different from the one our
grandparents knew. The average
temperature of the atmosphere is warmer.
Oceans are also heating up, and polar ice is
melting, as are many glaciers. Heavy bouts
of rain and snow are becoming more
frequent, with longer dry spells in between.
Ecosystems are also changing. While day-
to-day weather generally remains familiar,
it plays out against a backdrop of change,
and the mix of weather is slowly evolving as
some events become more likely and
others less common.
Extreme weather is a bit relative. For
example, a hot day in Wyoming would be
considered a mild one in Arizona. And we
don't generally notice changes in climate
because most weather falls within the
range of what is expected. It is mainly the
extreme events that get our attention—
events that are outside our normal
experience and that often inflict human
suffering. So how might global warming
affect climate extremes and extreme
weather? There are several possible ways.
Let's look at temperature as one example.
The normal distribution of temperature can be
thought of as a bell-shaped curve like this, with
the majority of the observations in the middle,
but with rare events of extremely cold or
extremely warm temperatures at the ends.
Global warming could shift the distribution to

the right—decreasing the frequency of very
cold weather events, but greatly increasing the
occurrences of hot weather.
Another possibility is that climate change increases
the variance in the distribution of temperature—in
other words, it increases the range of possibilities at
both ends of the distribution.
Or climate change could result in a combination of

the two types of distributions. We don't know
exactly how the distribution of temperature will
change, but most climate scientists strongly agree
that, on the average, the global climate will
continue to warm. However, the effects of this
warming in specific locations are less known.
Nonetheless, we are already seeing the effects of climate
change. For example, in the United States, record high
temperatures are now occurring more than twice as often
as record low temperatures, and similar patterns have
been observed across the planet.
The increase in temperatures leads to other changes

throughout the climate system, such as precipitation
patterns. For example, warmer air holds more moisture,
which leads to changes in both the distribution of
precipitation and in precipitation intensity. Since
temperature and moisture drive most of the planet's
weather, it makes sense that these changes also change the
odds of an extreme event turning up.
Natural Variability and Extreme Weather
Extremes in weather are nothing

Sometimes, the same general climate pattern can produce
new. Weather varies naturally
drastically different weather conditions in different
because of many factors, and
locations or different years. For example, the unusually
those factors can combine to
cold winter of 2010-2011 in the contiguous U.S. was
produce an extreme drought or a
influenced by a La Niña pattern—a quasi-cyclic cooling of
devastating flood, stronger
the eastern tropical Pacific ocean.
hurricanes or record snowfalls.
It is very likely that this pattern contributed to an unusually
cold spring with heavy precipitation in the Upper Missouri
River Basin. Heavy rains in May fell on deep late-spring
snow pack, which caused flooding that devastated parts of
several states.
No two El Niño/La Niña-Southern Oscillation events are

alike, however. The La Niña pattern persisted through
the winter of 2011-2012, although it was somewhat
weaker. Surprisingly, that winter was one of the
warmest on record in the U.S. A number of factors
conspired to produce the two dramatically different
results. Part of the difference related to the high latitude
pressure patterns (called the Arctic Oscillation) that
dominated in the two winters. In the warmer 2011-2012
winter, the pattern tended to trap the cold air near the
poles, but why that was the case is still being studied.
We have a good understanding that
natural modes of climate variability affect
the probability and intensity of weather
extremes. So how does global warming
come into the mix? In some cases it can
mitigate extremes. For example, a record
cold winter might be a little less cold than
it otherwise would have been. However,
climate change could also amplify the
effects of a natural cycle, producing more
severe extremes. So, for example, a
natural pattern that produces warmer-
Departures of temperature (anomalies) from average 2000-
than-normal annual conditions could be
2008 conditions during the month of March. enhanced by global warming and result in
increased night-time temperatures and
more frequent heat waves.
Climate is determined by a complicated
interplay of many factors that affect the
oceans, land surfaces, and the atmosphere. A
change in one of them—such as increasing
atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse
gases—can ripple throughout the system.
Of course, extreme weather events can
have some positive effects. The warm
winter of 2011-2012 in the U.S. resulted in
lower heating bills, and many
communities also saved by not needing
snow removal services.
It is an individual's or community's vulnerability

to the adverse effects of extremes that largely
determines whether a particular event is a
disaster or something beneficial.
Role of Climate Change
Is a particular weather event—such as a tornado outbreak or a record heat wave—caused by

natural variability or global warming? There are no definitive answers yet, but scientists are
beginning to provide insight into the effect climate change might have on the chances of an
extreme event occurring.
Using computer models and sophisticated
statistical techniques, researchers in the field of
attribution science are able to estimate the
odds that global warming increased (or
decreased) the chances for certain extreme
events.
Computer models simulate climate change by

dividing the world into 3-dimensional grid boxes,
measuring physical processes such as temperature
at each grid point.
The science of attributing extreme water and weather events to climate
variability and change is relatively new. Several recent case studies have
shed light on unusual events such as the 2003 European heat wave and
the 2010 Russian heat wave. And, as seen in this image, some scientists
are even producing forecasts of the changes in the odds of occurrence
for hotter, colder, wetter, and drier events.
Number of days with temperatures hotter than normal during

Forecast of the change in the odds of a warmer April (2012)
the 2003 European Heat Wave
due to greenhouse gas emissions
The summer of 2003 was the warmest in at least the past 500 years in
Europe. European Community scientists correlate the 2003 summer European
heat wave with 70,000 deaths above what would normally be expected.
Researchers wanted to know if this heat wave was simply an extremely
unusual natural event or whether climate change created an environment
that altered the pattern of natural variability. Using a climate model, they
analyzed the probabilities of exceeding the 2003 seasonal mean temperature
under 2003 conditions, including the build-up of greenhouse gases from
human activities. They then ran the model again without those greenhouse
gases. Their conclusion is that global warming probably at least doubled the
chances of the heat wave.
In the case of the 2010 Russian heat wave,
researchers found the magnitude of that event
was primarily caused by natural factors. Other
scientists, who used a different approach,
found that the risk of these types of events in
western Russia has increased greatly due to
global warming. It appears that, even if natural
factors were the main cause of this particular
weather extreme, the added strength produced
by climate change pushed it to a new and
dangerous level.
These early studies show promise, but much more work needs to be done to expand the regional
areas and the types of weather events for which these studies are conducted. Researchers hope
that improvements in attribution techniques will eventually lead to developing improved early
warning capabilities.
Changes in Extreme Events
We know that all weather results
from a combination of
interdependent factors, one of which
is the warmer temperatures observed
in the last 50 years. And computer
models show that human emissions
of greenhouse gases do account for
much of that warming. So what does
this mean for extremes in the US?
Based on observations, model
projections, and expert judgments,
we can be confident of the following:
Cold Weather: Warmer and fewer cold days and nights
Observations indicate that cold extremes are

less frequent and milder. Climate models
predict that trend is very likely to continue
throughout this century.
Hotter and more frequent hot days and nights and heat waves
Klik untuk menambahkan
teks
Most of North America has experienced more

frequent and intense heat extremes, which are
also very likely to continue through the 21st
century.
More frequent and intense heavy rainfall
Many areas in the U.S. have seen an increase in the

heaviest downpours, and that pattern is very likely to
continue in the future.
Increases in areas affected by drought
Regions that already experience long-duration

droughts, such as the Southwestern U.S. and
parts of Mexico and the Caribbean, will likely
see the area affected increase.
More intense hurricanes
Observations indicate an increase in

hurricane intensity in the Atlantic and West
Pacific (but a decrease in the eastern Pacific).
Experts and models project those tendencies
are likely to continue in the future.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-climate-change-affects-extreme-weather-around-the-world
• More than 350 peer-reviewed studies looking at weather extremes around the world
• The result is mounting evidence that human activity is raising the risk of some types
of extreme weather, especially those linked to heat.
• Carbon Brief has mapped every extreme-weather attribution study published to date.
Carbon Brief’s analysis reveals:
– 70% of the 405 extreme weather
events and trends included in the map
were found to be made more likely or
more severe by human-caused climate
change.
– 9% of events or trends were made
less likely or less severe by climate
change, meaning 79% of all events
experienced some human impact. The
remaining 21% of events and trends
showed no discernible human
influence or were inconclusive.
– Of the 122 attribution studies that
have looked at extreme heat around
the world, 92% found that climate
change made the event or trend more
likely or more severe.
– For the 81 studies looking at rainfall
or flooding, 58% found human activity
had made the event more likely or
more severe. For the 69 drought
events studied, it’s 65%.
ME-3036
Perubahan Iklim
Climate Modeling
+
McGuffie, K. and Ann Henderseon-

Sellers.A Climate Modelling
Primer.THIRD EDITION. (2005)
Overview:
+ Climate System (1)
 Istilah “iklim” pengertiannya luas
 Tergantung sudut pandang disiplin ilmu, contoh:
 Geology: pengaruh eksternal yang mendorong berbagai
fenomena yg dikaji
 Agrikultur: kondisi “normal” dari cuaca dari tahun ke
tahun atau dari hari ke hari
 dll
 Tergantung dari skala spasial
 Global, regional, lokal
 Tergantung dari skala waktu kajian
 Millenium, abad, dekade, dll
 Tergantung dari tiga hal di atas, iklim dipahami

sebagai feature dari keseluruhan sistem iklim yang
paling penting bagi kajian yang dilakukan
Overview:
The Climate Cube:
Climate Cube. Iklim dpat dipandang secara

umum berada dalam tiga domain:
waktu,ruang dan persepsi manusia.
Disini ditunjukkan satu dari banyak

kemungkinan pembagian domain-domain
tersebut.
Secara historis, disiplin-disiplin ilmu

spesifik hanya membahas satu “sel” saja.
Sistim iklim secara keseluruhan dan

interaksi antar domain belum begitu
dipahami.
A Climate Modelling Primer, Third
Edition. K. McGuffie and A.
Henderson-Sellers. (2005)
Overview:
 Secara luas iklim dapat didefinisikan sebagai:
‘semua statistik yang menjelaskan atmosfer dan laut dalam satu

rentang waktu (musim, dekade, atau lebih panjang), yang dihitung
untuk seluruh bumi atau wilayah tertentu’
 Variabel statistik yang sering digunakan: Variance (variabilitas)

dan Mean (rata-rata)
 Perubahan iklim: perbedaan antara dua kondisi iklim berdasarkan

variabel statistik tersebut:
Overview:
Sistem iklim didefinisikan sebagai:

 Oleh Global Atmospheric Research
Programme (GARP) : atmosfer, hidrosfer,
cryosfer, geosfer dan biosfer.
 Oleh United Nation’s Framework
Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) :
‘the totality of the atmosphere,
hydrosphere, biosphere and geosphere
and their interactions’
Overview:
+ Energy budget
Important Cycles
Carbon cycle
Hydrological cycle
+
Climate Change vs Climate
Variability
 Climate variability – The way climate fluctuates yearly

above or below a long-term average value.
 Climate change – Long-term continuous change (increase

or decrease) to average weather conditions or the range of
weather.  New Normal!!
 Climatological normal – 30-year average of a weather

variable.
Natural Climate Change vs

Anthropogenic Climate Change ??
+
How do they do that?
How does the IPCC know
what is going to happen?
Our best means of anticipating

climate change is by means of
computer climate models.

+ A Physical Model
The “real thing”
Airfix Model
A Mathematical Model:
The Population Explosion
Observation
Prediction Model
+
Climate Models
• The climate system is enormously complex
• Climate models are amongst the most

complex models in all of science
• Climate models are based on fluid

mechanics and thermodynamics
+ The Atmospheric Equations
• The Navier-Stokes Equations
• The Continuity Equation
• Continuity Equation for Water
• The Thermodynamic Equation
• The Equation of State

(Boyle/Charles)
+
The Basis of Climate Modelling
Newton’s Law of Motion
F = ma
T
h
e
r
m
o
d
y
n
a
m
i
c
s
 Source term
Bjerknes’ 1904 Manifesto
To predict future states of the atmosphere.
We need:
1. A sufficiently accurate knowledge of

the initial state of the atmosphere
2. A sufficiently accurate knowledge of the

laws of physics governing its behaviour.
Lewis Fry Richardson
(1881–1953)
Richardson computed by
hand the pressure change at
a single point.
It took him two years !
His ‘forecast’ was a

catastrophic failure:
Δp = 145 hPa in 6 hours

ENIAC
Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer
The first multipurpose programmable electronic digital computer
• 18,000 valves
• 70,000 resistors
• 10,000 capacitors
• 6,000 switches
• 140 kWatts power
Computing Speed over 60 years
(in floating point operations per second)
Computer Forecasting Skill
[The longest verification series in existence]
Computational Grid
+ Elements of the Climate System
• The atmosphere
• The ocean
• The cryosphere
• The geosphere
• The biosphere
There are interactions between these sub-systems
All these sub-systems are represented in modern

Earth System Models
+
Weather vs Climate Model
 Weather models are used to predict specific weather events

 start with the initial conditions and simulate how those conditions
will evolve with time.
 initial conditions problem
 the goal is to predict weather with enough accuracy to help those
who may be affected by it.
 Climate models are used to generate the statistics of weather

phenomena
 not to predict the time and place at which the phenomena will
occur.
 not dependent on initial atmospheric conditions
 boundary condition problem
+
Initial condition vs Boundary
condition problem
 Initial conditions are the starting point, the initial state of
variables like wind, temperatures, pressure, moisture, etc
 Boundary conditions, in contrast, are values prescribed by

the modeler, eg: intensity of solar radiation, composition of
the atmosphere, etc.
 Weather depends on initial conditions, while climate on

decadal and longer time scales depends primarily on
boundary conditions.
+ Boundary condition of climate
model
Natural Forcing:
model
Athropogenic Forcing:
model
Athropogenic Forcing:
+
CLIMATE MODEL
Hierarchy of Complexity of Climate Models
Neelin J.D. Climate Chane and Climate Modeling (2011)

+ Current Climate Modeling
AO-GCM
Illustration of the
basic characteristics
and processes within
an AOGCM, showing
the manner in which
the atmosphere and
ocean are split into
columns.
Both atmosphere and

ocean are modelled
as a set of interacting
columns distributed
across the Earth’s
surface
+
Short
term
climate
prediction
Sumber: Climate Prediction

and Agriculture, M.V.K.
Sivakumar
(WMO)
+ UNCERTAINTIES IN CLIMATE
CHANGE PREDICTIONS
 Projections of future emissions
 Initial climate conditions
 Natural and human climate factors
 Realism of the climate model
 feedbacks
 resolution
 extremes of climate
+
Parameterisation
We have to represent a wide range of processes occurring on scales smaller

than the resolution of the models.
• Convective and stratiform clouds

• Infrared and visible radiation
• The topography of the Earth's surface
• Atmospheric turbulence on many scales.
+
Sub Grid Scales Process and
Parameterization
Evolution
+ of Climate Model
Features of the models
early 1990s
1996 2001 2007
Resolutions of the models

+
Climate Model Components
+ Atmospheric Model
+ Ocean Model
+ Land Model
+ Ice Model
+ Future Directions of Climate
Models
+ Future Directions of Climate
Models
ME-3036
Perubahan Iklim
CMIP5
(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5)
+ CMIP5
(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5)
A framework for coordinated climate change experiments for

assessment in the IPCC AR5
CMIP5 provide a multi-model context for
1) assessing the mechanisms responsible for model

differences in poorly understood feedbacks associated
with the carbon cycle and with clouds,
2) examining climate “predictability” and exploring the

ability of models to predict climate on decadal time scales,
3) determining why similarly forced models produce a range

of responses.
http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/
https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip5/
+
The relationship of CMIP5 (which is organized by WGCM) to

organizations established to coordinate climate research activities
internationally and to the IPIPCC, the modeling centers, and the
climate research community
+
CMIP5 Objectives
To:
 address outstanding scientific questions arising from IPCC AR4
 improve understanding of climate, i.e. to understand some of the
factors responsible for differences in model projections, including
quantifying some key feedbacks such as those involving clouds
and the carbon cycle
 evaluate how realistic the models are in simulating the recent past,
 provide projections of future climate change on two time scales,

near term (out to about 2035) and long term (out to 2100 and
beyond), and
Not intended to be comprehensive – other experiments will emerge
along the way
+ CMIP5 Experiments
Two types of climate change modeling experiments:
1) long-term (century time scale), usually started from

multicentury preindustrial control (quasi equilibrium)
integrations
2) near-term (10–30 yr), also called decadal prediction

experiments, initialized with observed ocean and sea ice
conditions
Both are integrated using atmosphere–ocean global climate

models (AOGCMs), the “standard” models used in previous CMIP
phases.
The AOGCMs respond to specified, time-varying

concentrations of various atmospheric constituents (e.g.,
greenhouse gases) and include an interactive representation of
the atmosphere, ocean, land, and sea ice.
For the long-term simulations, some of the AOGCMs will be

coupled to biogeochemical components that account for the
important fluxes of carbon between the ocean, atmosphere, and
terrestrial biosphere carbon reservoirs [Earth system models
(ESMs)],
+ Climate Change Scenarios
 The CMIP5 projections of climate change are driven by concentration or
emission scenarios called RCPs (Radiative Concentration Pathaways)
 SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) did not include policy

intervention, while the RCPs are mitigation scenarios that assume policy
actions will be taken to achieve certain emission targets.
 RCPs have been formulated based on a range of projections of future

population growth, technological development, and societal responses.
 The labels for the RCPs provide a rough estimate of the radiative forcing
in the year 2100 (relative to preindustrial conditions).
 For example, the radiative forcing in RCP8.5 increases throughout the

twenty-first century before reaching a level of about 8.5 W m−2 at the end
of the century. In addition to this “high” scenario, there are two
intermediate scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP6, and a low so-called peak-and-
decay scenario, RCP2.6, in which radiative forcing reaches a maximum
near the middle of the twenty-first century before decreasing to an
eventual nominal level of 2.6 W m−2.
Radiative forcing: difference of incoming solar radiation absorbed by the Earth and
energy radiated back to space.
+
+
Radiative forcing: difference of incoming solar radiation absorbed by the Earth and
energy radiated back to space.
+ CMIP5 Experiments
Two types of climate change modeling experiments:
1) long-term (century time scale), usually started from

multicentury preindustrial control (quasi equilibrium)
integrations
2) near-term (10–30 yr), also called decadal prediction

experiments, initialized with observed ocean and sea ice
conditions
Both are integrated using atmosphere–ocean global climate

models (AOGCMs), the “standard” models used in previous CMIP
phases.
The AOGCMs respond to specified, time-varying

concentrations of various atmospheric constituents (e.g.,
greenhouse gases) and include an interactive representation of
the atmosphere, ocean, land, and sea ice.
For the long-term simulations, some of the AOGCMs will be

coupled to biogeochemical components that account for the
important fluxes of carbon between the ocean, atmosphere, and
terrestrial biosphere carbon reservoirs [Earth system models
(ESMs)],
+ CMIP5 Design Summary
• All models perform CORE experiments (basis for intercomparison)

• Models perform Tier 1 and Tier 2 experiments as interests and
resources dictate: these explore specific aspects of model forcing,
response, and process
+ Near term (decadal) experiments
Assess model skill on

time scales where initial
state may exert some
influence
At least 3
ensemble
members
for each
run
Assess model skill on
time scales where GHG
forcing expected to
exert some influence
+ Long term experiments
Pre-industrial control
(ca. 1850) and 20th
century, forced by
concentrations and by
emissions
Future scenarios (RCPs)
forced by
concentrations and by
emissions
“Diagnostic” runs to
assess transient climate
response, equilibrium
climate sensitivity
Green font indicates experiment performed

only by models with carbon cycle
representation
+ Long term experiments, cont’d
Partial-forcing and
single-forcing factor
experiments to quantify
C-climate feedbacks
Additional RCPs and

multi-century
simulations
And many other
simulations…
“Diagnostic” runs to
assess C-climate
feedbacks and
allowable (fossil fuel +
land use) emissions
Green font indicates experiment performed

only by models with carbon cycle
representation
All models:
Control,
historical,
and paleo
Future
scenarios
(RCPs)
Diagnostic
simulations
(feedbacks)
Attribution
runs (single
and multi-
factor)
+
Simulations only performed by
ESMs…
Forced by fossil fuel emissions and land use changes,

as opposed to concentrations
+
+ Data access:
https://esgf-
node.llnl.gov/projects
/cmip5/
+ CMIP Phase-6 (Scheduled 2021)
+
+
What is SSPs?
• SSPs are socio-economic pathways that consist of quantitative and qualitative
elements that pertain to society, energy, economy and environment.
• They are reference pathways in that they contain no climate-related policy
interventions or impacts. SSPs are envisioned in a two-dimensional ‘challenges
space’, with the degree of challenges to mitigation on one axis and the degree of
challenges to adaptation on the other.
+ Future RCP CO emissions scenarios featured in CMIP5 and their
2
CMIP6 counterparts, as well as historical CO2 emissions (in black).
https://www.carbonbrief.org/cmip6-the-next-generation-of-climate-models-explained
+
+ Climate Projections:
“Raw” Model Outputs
Sample grid point
( 2.5o x 1.67o Res.)
IPSL-CM5A-MR
RCP 4.5
+ Climate Projections:
Downscaled Rainfall Projections
Statistical
Downscaling
10 ensemble
members per
model
Area averaged
over BS
watershed
+ Coordinated Regional Climate
Downscaling Experiment
(CORDEX)
Global partnership on
regional climate
downscaling efforts, both
dynamical and empirical-
statistical downscaling
experiment.
Consists of 14 domains (a
region for which the
regional downscaling is
taking place)
Indonesia is part of South

East Asia CORDEX
Domain
CORDEX (14 domains)
East Asia
25 km x 25
South Asia km
25 km x 25
50 km x 50 Southeast
km
km
Asia
Thailand
Philippines Lao PDR
Indonesia Cambodia
Malaysia Vietnam
UK Australia Sweden South Korea Hong Germany Japan

Kong
+
Website:
http://www.ukm.my/
seaclid-cordex/
http://www.rucore
.ru.ac.th/Home
Downscaling of CMIP5 climate projection :
+ ideal: dynamical downscaled
Dynamical
Downscaling
Bias correction
works well in
reducing spurious
signal from
original model
output
3. Downscaling of CMIP5 climate projection :
alternative: dynamical downscaled CMIP5 data are not (or insufficiently)
available
Statistical Downscaling
+
A Review of Downscaling Methods for Climate Change Projections, AARC Report.

CIESSIN, 2014.
http://www.ciesin.org/documents/Downscaling_CLEARED_000.pdf
+
EMPIRICAL-STATISTICAL
DOWNSCALING (ESD)
Motivation:
Problems with general circulation models (GCMs)on
- Coarse resolutions. Impact studies need finer
resolution for planning
- Grid parameterization schemes not okay for all
regions
- Important feedback of local factor (topography,
geography, etc.) on local and global climate is
missing
and no (or limited) computational resources.

y, geography, etc.) on local and global climate is missing
+
EMPIRICAL-STATISTICAL
DOWNSCALING (ESD)Verification/
Skill Estimates Operational
Large scale
X HINDCAST HINDCAST FORECAST
YDEV=F(XDEV) YVER=F(XVER) YOP=F(XOP)

Local Scale
Y OBSERVATION OBS ?
DEVELOPMENT PERIOD IMPLEMENTATION PERIOD
F: Transfer Function/Calibration/Correction Factor

+
Challenges to statistical downscaling as
used in climate change impacts
prediction
• It is regionally-dependent
• Will the relationship between predictor large-scale
variable and local-scale variable remain the same under
climate change?
• Karl et al. (1990) suggests that atmospheric extremes are
already included in any large enough sample of daily
observations used for training the statistical model
• Busuioc et al. (1999) suggests that a good agreement
between the GCM simulations of future climate and the
statistical model predictions might be indicative of a good
statistical model for using under climate change
+
Simple Bias Correction
http://ccafs-climate.org/bias_correction/
+
Change Factor (Delta Method)
http://ccafs-climate.org/bias_correction/
+ Quantile Based Bias Correction (1)
Fukami and Inomata (2012)
+ Quantile Based Bias Correction (2)
Fukami and Inomata (2012)
Bjerknes’ 1904 Manifesto
To predict future states of the atmosphere.
We need:
1. A sufficiently accurate knowledge of

the initial state of the atmosphere
2. A sufficiently accurate knowledge of the

laws of physics governing its behaviour.
+ Determinism, Chaos, dan Predictability
 Konsep Determinism: perfect prediction is possible when we have
knowledge of all necessary “condition”
 Konsep Chaos: small difference in the initial state cause huge

difference later, even in the deterministic non-linear system.
 Pengetahuan kita tidak akan pernah lengkap, sehingga:
perfect forecast is imposible!
How well can we predict?  Predictability

+ Uncertainty (1)
State of the art Numerical

Weather Prediction
• Large, sophisticated
computer models that
represent the physics of
the atmosphere,
• deterministic: they do not
represent uncertainty
• But inescapably uncertain, for two
reasons:
• they are not complete and true
representations of the governing
physics
SIMPLIFICATION
• Dynamical chaos: the time evolution
(of the atmosphere) depends very
sensitively on the initial conditions
of the system
INITIAL CONDITION PROBLEM
+
Uncertainty (2)
 Quantifying uncertainty  Probability Distribution
Lower uncertainty
Higher uncertainty
+ Ensemble Prediction System (EPS)
Konsep Prediksi Ensemble
Schematic illustration in ensemble forecasting.
For non-linear f(x)
Average of Single
all evolution of
member average
initial value
• The heavy line represents the evolution of the single best analysis of the initial state of the
atmosphere, corresponding to the more traditional single deterministic forecast.
• The dashed lines represent the evolution of individual ensemble members.
• The ellipse in which they originate represents the probability distribution of initial
atmospheric states, which are very close to each other.
• At the intermediate projection, all the ensemble members are still reasonably similar.
• By the time of the final projection some of the ensemble members have undergone a regime
change, and represent qualitatively different flows.
• Any of the ensemble members, including the solid line, are plausible trajectories for the
evolution of the real atmosphere, and there is no way of knowing in advance which will
represent the real atmosphere most closely
Ensemble Prediction System (EPS)
+
Membangun Ensemble
 Pada dasarnya terdapat dua tipe
prosedur untuk menghasilkan
ensemble:
 Perturbasi di nilai initial condition 
initial condition problem
 Perturbasi pada skema
parameterisasi model  model
simplification problem
 Kombinasi dari keduanya juga

dapat dilakukan untuk
membentuk Multi-model
ensemble
 Atau altenatif lain yang lebih

simple adalah time-lag ensemble Chung Lu, et. Al (2006)
+ Produk Ensemble Prediction System (EPS)
Ensemble mean dan ensemble spread
Guidelines on Ensemble Prediction

Systems and Forecasting
Document WMO-No. 1091
World Meteorological Organization, 2012
Mean (black contours) and spread (colour shading) for PMSL forecast (T
+ 72)
+ Ensemble Climate Projection
http://etccdi.pacificclimate.org/list_27_indices.shtml
ETCCDI Extreme Indices

CDD – Maximum length of dry spell,
maximum number of consecutive days with RR
< 1mm; Indicator of drought
R50mm -- seasonal count of days when

PRCP≥ 50mm
RX1day -- Monthly maximum 1-day

precipitation
Zhang et al. (2011)

PDFs of CDD Anomalies (TRMM vs.
Model) (Baseline)
SEACLID/CORDEX Southeast Asia simulations

reasonably captured the distribution of CDD for
historical period (1985-2005)
PDF of anomalous CDD for historical vs. End of
+ Century (Southern SUMATRA)
The PDF of CDD distribution tended to be shifted to

the right for RCP4.5 & 8.5
IPCC AR5 SYR 2014
Sustainable Development
Result and Applications:
+ Future Climate Analysis
• Some climate analysis using
downscaled precipitation
projection: changes on seasonal
rainfall
+ Changes on extreme rainfall occurrence
BASELINE
2001-2010
FUTURE PROJECTION
• Extreme rainfall on baseline

period (1981-2010): >60
mm/day. Relative probability of
that event was calculated for the
last 10 years of baseline period
(1991-2000)
• Probability of INCREASING
extreme rainfall occurrence
was estimated from 30 member
of future projection.
+ Change on Landslide Hazard
BASELINE FUTURE PROJECTION
1981-2010
2021-2030 2031-2040
• A trigger of landslide: 2 days- HAZARD LEVEL

run wet spell that precedes a
2021-2030 2031-2040
more than 60 mm/day rainfall
 based on historical record
• Average frequency of that
event was calculated over
BASELINE period
frequency was estimated for
FUTURE PROJECTION
• HAZARD LEVEL was
estimated from the probability
map
+ Change on Drought Hazard
1981-2010 2011-2040
• On baseline • On future
period, a modified period,
Drought Hazard probability of
Index (Shahid and DHI increase
Behrawan, 2008) atleast one
was calculated level relative
based on relative to baseline level
frequency of 15 was calculated
days-run dry spell from ensemble
during rainy season future
(DJF), 4 consecutive projection.
Extreme Dry SPI-3
and SPI6.
ME-3036
Perubahan Iklim
Kajian Risiko Dampak Perubahan Iklim

IPCC AR5 SYR 2014
Hazard, Risk,Vulnerability
+
HAZARD is any substance, phenomenon or situation, which has

the potential to cause disruption or damage to people, their
property, their services and their environment
+
+
+
ASSESMENT APPOACH
 Quantitative Approach
• Use mathematical functions with numerical
values
• Each variable will describe the relationship
among parameters that characterize the
phenomena
Qualitative Approach
Use qualitative descriptions (such as low,
medium or high) instead of numerical
values
+
ASSESMENT METHODS
Deterministic.
or
Probabilistic
• Estimates the probability of each hazard affecting
an area or region, and likelihood of occurrence
and can be determined through research studies,
simulation studies, etc (eg. Flood/erosion
simulation studies, slope stability calculations,
landslide hazard zonation).
Informal Ranking
• Uses subjectively defined scales to rank the
hazards and associated risks according to an
area specific or country specific ranking
system.
+
Hazard, Risk,Vulnerability
+
VULNERABLE
AREA
Vulnerability is a concept which describes factors or

constraints of an economic, social, physical or geographic nature, which
reduce the ability to prepare for and cope with the impact of
hazards.
+
Categories of Vulnerabilities
 Hazard-specific:
– a characteristic which makes the element concerned susceptible to
the force/s or impact of a hazard. The geo-physical and locational
attributes of the element/s concerned are considered in this
category. Based on the present-knowledge of the distribution and
frequency of hazards, a community or country may be threatened
by specific hazards.
 Setting-specific:
– this is concerned with the prevailing socio-economic arrangement
of the area concerned as to whether it is predominantly rural or
urban. There are inherent setting characteristics that may be
common to both as well as exclusive to each which contribute to
the general susceptibility of the area.
+
E.g: Urban Setting
Vulnerabilities
 Concentrations and Crowdedness - the three aspects are crowdedness and
disease; crowdedness and buildings; crowdedness and resource base.
 Numbers of Peoples and Activities - the two aspect of this condition are
Technologies and the Management System.
 Social and Organizational Dimension

– The existing arrangement of a society regarding relationships of
individuals, groups and institutions may create adverse situations that
weakens the these elements’ capabilities to face or withstand hazards and
contribute instead to the intensifying of the effects
 Attitudinal and Motivational Dimension

– The prevalent worldview of the society or certain groups within society may
contribute to a passive or non-active stance regarding the disasters that beset
thearea
+
Adaptive Capacity
 Definitionof Capacity: The resources, means

and strengths possessed by persons,
communities, societies or countries which
enable them to cope with, withstand, prepare
for, prevent, mitigate or quickly recover from a
disaster
+
RISK is the probability that negative consequences may arise

when hazards
interact with vulnerable areas, people, property, environment.
RISK is a concept which describes a potential set of
consequences that may
arise from a given set of circumstances.
+
+
IPCC AR5 SYR 2014
+
Adaptasi Perubahan Iklim
Adaptasi didefinisikan oleh IPCC sebagai “penyesuaian dalam

sistem alami atau manusia dalam merespon akumulasi
perubahan iklim yang aktual atau yang diperkirakan atau efek-
efeknya, yang mengurangi bahaya atau menggali kesempatan
yang mungkin menguntungkan dari suatu kondisi” (Smith et al.,
2001, p. 881).
Adaptasi mandiri/ Autonomous adaptation dianggap adalah

adaptasi yang dilakukan oleh entitias yang terkena dampak
seperti individu, masyarakat, atau alam dalam merespon
perubahan yang diobservasi atau yang dipersepsi dalam iklim.
Adaptasi antisipatif atau proaktif (anticipatory atau proactive

adaptation) dilakukan untuk mengurangi resiko dari perubahan
yang akan datang dari iklim.
+
Mitigasi Perubahan Iklim
 Mitigasi : berbagai tindakan aktif untuk mencegah/

memperlambat terjadinya perubahan iklim/ pemanasan
global & mengurangi dampak perubahan iklim/pemanasan
global (melalui upaya penurunan emisi GRK, peningkatan
penyerapan GRK, dll.)
+ Contoh Kajian Kebijakan Adaptasi Perubahan Iklim
+ Analisis Risiko Perubahan Iklim
Formulasi analisis risiko ( Affeltranger, et al., 2006 dalam Suroso, D.S., 2008)
Vulnerability = (Exposure x Sensitivity)/Adaptive Capacity
Hazard = ancaman bahaya, vulnerability = kerentanan,
Exposure = keterpaparan, Sensistivity = sensitivitas,
Adaptive Capacity = kapasitas untuk adaptasi
+
Tahapan Kajian Risiko Perubahan
Iklim
1. Identifikasi permasalahan dan penetapan ruang lingkup kerentanan
terhadapperubahan iklim
Langkah ini sangat penting sebagai landasan bagi implementasi studi. Teknik yang dapat diterapkan
diantaranya brainstorming, konsultasi publik, dan Focus Group Discussion (FGD). Langkah ini bertujuan untuk
menentukan konsep dan metode kerentanan dan juga sebagai forum interaksi awal dengan pemangku
kepentingan pada tingkat lokal di daerah yang bersangkutan. Pada langkah ini, kita dapat berkomunikasi
terkait kebutuhan dan ketersediaan data diantara pada ahli yang terlibat dalam penelitian maupun institusi
terkait pada wilayah tersebut.
2. Analisis Bahaya Perubahan Iklim

Pada langkah ini, karakteristik bahaya, seperti, besaran bahaya, frekuensi kejadian, dan level bahaya
dianalisisi berdasarkan informasi iklim saat ini mupun historis, serta proyeksi perubahan iklim masa depan
melalui metode modeling.
3. Analisis Kerentanan terhadap Dampak Perubahan Iklim

Pada langkah ini, dilakukan identifikasi terhadap indikator kerentanan, klasifikasi indicator (sosial, fisik, dan
ekonomi) dan pembobotan indikator, selanjutnya, peta kerentanan dapat diproduksi berdasarkan kondisi
baseline dan proyeksi.
4. Analisis dan Evaluasi Risiko Iklim

Risiko merupakan hasil overlay antara peta bahaya dan peta kerentanan. Oleh karena itu, tingkat risiko
dihasilkan dari proses overlay antara peta yang dihasilkan pada Tahap 2 dan Tahap 3 di atas.
+
Kerangka Kajian Risiko dan Adaptasi Perubahan Iklim (KRAPI) –

KLH 2012
+
+
CONTOH-CONTOH KAJIAN
http://etccdi.pacificclimate.org/list_27_indices.shtml
ETCCDI Extreme Indices

CDD – Maximum length of dry spell,
maximum number of consecutive days with RR
< 1mm; Indicator of drought
R50mm -- seasonal count of days when

PRCP≥ 50mm
RX1day -- Monthly maximum 1-day

precipitation
Zhang et al. (2011)

PDFs of CDD Anomalies (TRMM vs.
Model) (Baseline)
SEACLID/CORDEX Southeast Asia simulations

reasonably captured the distribution of CDD for
historical period (1985-2005)
Contoh hazard:
+ Perubahan pada (anomaly) indeks iklim
ekstrim (CDD)
PDF of anomalous CDD for historical vs. End of Century
(Southern SUMATRA)
The PDF of CDD distribution tended to be shifted to

the right for RCP4.5 & 8.5
Contoh hazard:
+ Perubahan pada frekuensi curah hujan ekstrim
BASELINE
2001-2010
FUTURE PROJECTION
(RCP 4.5)
• Extreme rainfall on baseline

period (1981-2010): >60
mm/day. Relative probability of
that event was calculated for the
last 10 years of baseline period
(1991-2000)
extreme rainfall occurrence
was estimated from 30 member
of future projection.
Contoh hazard:
+ Perubahan pada akumulasi curah hujan musiman
FUTURE PROJECTION
(RCP 4.5)
Contoh hazard:
+ Perubahan pada indeks bahaya kekeringan
1981-2010 2011-2040
• On baseline • On future
period, a modified period,
Drought Hazard probability of
Index (Shahid and DHI increase
Behrawan, 2008) atleast one
was calculated level relative
based on relative to baseline level
frequency of 15 was calculated
days-run dry spell from ensemble
during rainy season future
(DJF), 4 consecutive projection.
Extreme Dry SPI-3
and SPI6.
+
Contoh: Kajian Bahaya (Hazard)
Tanah Longsor
+
Faktor Kelerengan
+
Faktor Geologis
+
Faktor Pemanfaatan Lahan
Faktor curah hujan:
+Perubahan pada frekuensi curah hujan pemicu longsor
1981-2010
2021-2030 2031-2040
• A trigger of landslide: 2 days- HAZARD LEVEL

run wet spell that precedes a
2021-2030 2031-2040
more than 60 mm/day rainfall
 based on historical record
• Average frequency of that
event was calculated over
BASELINE period
frequency was estimated for
FUTURE PROJECTION
• HAZARD LEVEL was
estimated from the probability
map
+
Peta Bahaya (Hazard) Tanah
Longsor
+
Contoh penentuan rangking
(vulnerability):
Peta Kerentanan (Vulnerability) Tanah
+
Longsor
Hasil agregat dari komponen-komponen kerentanan

+
+
Peta Risiko Tanah Longsor
Hasil overlay dari Peta Hazard dan Peta Vulnerability

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[ME4045] Perubahan Iklim B

Dr. Edi Riawan

Earth Radiation Budget

Ratio: Height/ Length is 100/(4.084 x 104)

• although individual molecules exchange between the

• Lowest 80 km is called the Homosphere and is sometimes

• The atmosphere above this is called the Heterosphere.

Ar, Ne, He, Xe < 1% and are

** The residence time of a gas is the average time an individual molecule

• account for < 1% of the atmosphere below 80 km.

H2O + CO2 + O3 = 0.296% of atmospheric volume.

• water vapor varies considerably in both

• Water vapor has a residence time of only 10 days.

• (CO2) is supplied to the atmosphere through plant and animal

• It is removed through photosynthesis, the process by which

• CO2 has a residence time of ~150 yrs.

• (O3) is an unusual molecule made up of 3 Oxygen atoms. It

• O3 is vital for absorbing lethal UV radiation from the sun. As it

• Near the surface ozone is a pollutant, but exists there in

• They are formed by both natural and anthropogenic means.

• Apart from pollution, aerosols play an important role as

• Formed from chemical reactions, wind-generated dust, volcanic

removed from the atmosphere in precipitation.

• Atmospheric composition – high Oxygen content, low Carbon

The density of the gases that make up the atmosphere is

At Denver CO, (~1.6 km altitude – or 1 mile), air density is

Ahrens, Fig. 1.5

• For each 5.5 km height

We can Quantify Pressure Change with Height

Use Equation for Pressure Change:

p(2.8 km) = (1013 mb) x 10 –(2.8 km)/(16 km)

p(2.8 km) = (1013 mb) x 10 –(0.175)

p(2.8 km) = (1013 mb) x 0.668 = 677 mb

Use Equation for Pressure Change:

Let’s get cocky…

Together with the

The lapse rate is the

Temperature increases with

The ozone layer absorbs

- extends from the upper mesosphere into the thermosphere.

Important for reflecting AM radio waves back to Earth.

Also responsible for the aurora borealis (northern lights) and

Earth Radiation Budget

• climate operates to distribute solar energy across surface

What is solar energy?

both a particle (photon) and wave

photons can have different energies (wavelengths)

high energies = shorter wavelengths

How does solar energy interact with planet?

-- some is stopped by atmosphere,

atmosphere “transparent” for visible light,

planetary albedo = 30% 5%

 Most radiation (96%)

Atmosphere = net radiation deficit

 Conduction: transfers radiant energy into Earth,

How does the surface energy surplus get to the

Hurricane Ike at landfall, Huston/Galveston, 13 Sep. 2008

How does the surface energy surplus get to the

Latent heat (21 units) a

Global Sea Surface Temperatures: Climatology: 58

Climate is loosely defined as "average weather"

different spatial scales of climate:

1. Intensity of solar radiation and it's variation

The most important climatic classification system are: