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The Use of Remote Sensing and GIS for Monitoring Urban Growth: The Case of
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Thesis · January 2019

DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.15870.41280

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The Use of Remote Sensing and GIS for Monitoring Urban Growth: The Case
of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Lucas Boakye

A Thesis Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the

degree of Master of Arts in Geography with a Concentration in

Geographic Information Systems (GIS)

Chicago State University

2019

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 ProQuest Number: 22624743

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 Approval Sheet

We have examined this manuscript and verify that it meets the program and University
requirements for the degree of Master of Geography with Geographic Information Systems (GIS)
Concentration

Thesis Committee:

Dr. Tekleab Shibru Gala (Thesis Advisor) Date

Associate Professor of Geomatics
Chicago State University

Dr. Daniel Block (Thesis Committee Member) Date

Professor of Geography
Chicago State University

Dr. Gebeyehu Mulugeta (Thesis Committee Member) Date

Professor of Remote Sensing and GIS
Chicago State University

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Abstract

Rapid Addis Ababa Urbanization and subsequent socio-economic and environmental

impacts, on the surrounding Oromia zone, are causing massive political instability. The

instability has drawn attentions of international human right agencies as well as country’s

politicians. The objectives of this study are 1) to use remotely sensed Landsat satellite data to

identify, quantify, delineate and map the Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) types of Addis Ababa

and the surrounding Oromia zones and 2) analyze patterns of changes from 1985 and 2017.

Segment-based supervised image classification was used to map LULC types consisting of

Agriculture, Grass/Bare land, Lakes/Ponds, Scrublands, Settlement or Urban Areas, Vegetation

and Wetlands for 1985, 2003 and 2017 images, with overall accuracies and kappa ranging

between 84% and 87.6% and 94.4%; respectively. Agriculture is still the dominant LULC type,

though the compositions of the remaining LULC types have changed since 1985; except for

Lakes/Ponds, and Wetlands. The Settlement/Urban LULC type has grown by 546% at the

expenses of agricultural and vegetation areas, risking wellbeing of farmers due to the loss of

farmland. Additionally, the changes were characterized by transformation of Agricultural lands

into Grass/Bare lands and Scrublands, indicating the environmental impacts of urbanization.

With one of the world highest fertility rate and massive rural-to-urban migration, Addis Ababa

urbanization is likely to continue for unforeseen future. It is therefore, critical adapt sustainable

urban planning for Addis Ababa, which involves consideration of Compact city, Secondary

Cities, and Edge city design.

Keywords: Change Detection, Urban Growth Model, Remote Sensing, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

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Acknowledgement

To God be the glory for His mercy, kindness, support, protections and

guidance throughout the course of study. My sincere appreciation goes to my parents

back at home for their prayers and support.

First, I would like to express my profound and sincere gratitude to my thesis

advisor, Dr. Tekleab Gala for his tremendous and immense contribution, guidance,

his time consuming, encouragement, valuable comments and having enough patience

in improving my writing. Without him I would have ended nowhere as far as this

thesis is concern. Moreover, I would also thank my committee members Dr. Daniel

Block and Dr. Gebeyehu Mulugeta, for having ample time to review, give valuable

comments, and provide guidance during this research study.

Furthermore, I would like to thank the entire members of Church of

Pentecost Association, Chicago Central for their prayers and support. I also owe

deep gratitude to the entire GIS lab students including my learning group that I

shared and learned new ideas from. I finally acknowledge Chicago State University

for providing me financial support throughout my study in the school.

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Table of Contents

Approval Sheet................................................................................................................................ II
Abstract ......................................................................................................................................... III
Acknowledgement ........................................................................................................................ IV
Table of Content ............................................................................................................................ V
List of Tables ............................................................................................................................... VII
List of Figures ............................................................................................................................ VIII
List of Abbreviations .................................................................................................................... IX
CHAPTER 1: GENERAL INTRODUCTION ............................................................................... 1
1.1. Background and Rationale ................................................................................................... 1
1.1.1 Ethiopia........................................................................................................................... 1
1.1.2 Addis Ababa: The Capital City of Ethiopia.................................................................... 3
1.1.3 Problems of Addis Ababa Urbanization ......................................................................... 4
1.2 Research Goal and Objectives............................................................................................... 5
CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW ........................................................................................ 6
2.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 6
2.2 Geospatial Technologies: Geographic Information System and Remote Sensing ................ 6
2.3 Land Use/Land Cover: Concepts and Definitions................................................................. 7
2.4 Land use land cover (LULC) mapping ................................................................................. 7
2.5 Land use land cover (LULC) Change Detection ................................................................... 8
2.6 Causes of Urban Sprawl in Addis Ababa ............................................................................ 10
2.7 Conclusion........................................................................................................................... 12
CHAPTER 3: MATERIALS AND METHODOLOGY ............................................................. 14
3.1: Data Acquisition and Description of the data. ................................................................... 14
3.2: Land Use and Land Cover Classification Schemes ........................................................... 14
3.3: Image Classification ........................................................................................................... 16
3.3.1: Unsupervised Classification ........................................................................................ 16
3.3.2: Supervised Classification ............................................................................................ 17
3.4: Accuracy Assessment......................................................................................................... 18
3.5: Post Classification Image “Smoothing” ............................................................................. 20
3.6: Change Detection ............................................................................................................... 20
3.7: Change Analysis................................................................................................................. 21
CHAPTER IV: RESULTS AND DISCUSSION ......................................................................... 22
4.1: LULC Map of Addis Ababa and Peri-urban Oromia Zone................................................ 22
4.1.1: Historical LULC Types of Addis Ababa and its surrounding Oromia Zone .............. 22
4.1.2: Contemporary LULC Types of Addis Ababa and its surrounding Oromia Zone, 2017.
............................................................................................................................................... 24
4.2: Validation of LULC Maps Accuracies .............................................................................. 25

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 4.3: Change Detection ............................................................................................................... 28
4.4: Change Analysis................................................................................................................. 31
4.5: The economic, Social and Environmental Implications of Addis Ababa Urbanizations ... 34
CHAPTER V: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION ................................................... 37
5.1: Conclusion.......................................................................................................................... 37
5.2: Recommendations .............................................................................................................. 38
5.3: Limitations ......................................................................................................................... 40
6. REFERENCES ......................................................................................................................... 42
7. VITA ......................................................................................................................................... 46

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List of Tables

Table 3.1. Specifications of Landsat Thematic Mapper TM Images ............................................ 14

Table 3.2. Interpretation of agreement for Kappa Coefficient ...................................................... 19
Table 4.1. Summary of error matrixes for the classified images of 1985, 2003 and 2017. .......... 27
Table 4.2. LULC Changes that occurred between years 1985, 2003 and 2017. ........................... 30

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List of Figures

Figure 1.1. Map of Ethiopia in the context of African Continent ................................................... 2

Figure 1.2. Shows the study area (Addis Ababa)............................................................................ 3
Figure 4.1. Classified LULC Map of Addis Ababa and its surrounding Oromia Zone: Left is
1985 and Right is 2003 ................................................................................................................. 23
Figure 4.2. Classified LULC Map of Addis Ababa and its surrounding Oromia Zone in 2017. .. 25
Figure 4.3. Map of Changed and Unchanged areas during the study period (1985 – 2017) ........ 28
Figure 4.4. Spatial distribution and analysis of Major LULC changes a) between 1985 and 2003
and b) between 2003 and 2017 ..................................................................................................... 32
Figure 4.5. Spatial distribution and analysis of Major LULC changes between 1985 and 2017 . 33

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List of Abbreviations

LULC Land Use Land Cover

GIS Geographic Information Systems
RS Remote Sensing
TM Thematic Mapper
ETM+ Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus
OLI Operational Land Imager
TIRS Thermal Infrared Sensor
LISS Linear Imaging Self Scanner
FAO Food and Agricultural Organization
LCM Land Change Modeler
MLP Multi-Layer Perceptron
CA Cellular Automata
ERA Ethiopia Road Authority
CSA Central Statistical Agency of Ethiopia
ECA Economic Commission for Africa
NJDEP NJ Department of Environmental Protection
ORAAMP Office for the Revision of the Addis Ababa Master Plan
GDP Gross Domestic Products
USGS United States Geological Survey
UTM Universal Transverse Mercator

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CHAPTER 1: GENERAL INTRODUCTION

1.1. Background and Rationale

1.1.1 Ethiopia

Ethiopia is a country located in the eastern region of the African continent collectively

called the horn of Africa (Fig. 1). According to the Central Intelligence Agency (2018), Ethiopia

has a coverage area of approximately 1,221,900 square kilometers bordered by Eritrea to the

north, Djibouti and Somalia to the east, Sudan and South Sudan to the west, and Kenya to the

south. Ethiopia is located on 3°-15°N and 33°- 48°E, with elevation ranges from 1,500 to 3,000

meters above sea level. Its location within the tropics of Africa, the geographical nature and

settings and differences in altitude have resulted in wide range of terrain, climate, soil,

mountains, flora and fauna (plants and animals). Ethiopia has mountain ranges, a flat-topped

plateau called “Ambas” deep gorges, river valleys and rolling plains.

The current population of Ethiopia is 104, 814, 08 based on the latest United Nations

estimates. However, the existing population of Ethiopia is estimated to be 112 million by 2020,

which makes it one of the largest populous country in Africa, Source: World Population

Prospects, (2017). Ethiopia's population is persistently growing by 2 million people, or 2.5

percent, each year. As the population increases, a greater percentage of land is deforested and

over-farmed. Forest coverage has declined from 40 percent in 75 years ago to only 3 percent

today (Solomon et al., 2018). Consequently, many vegetated areas have now been transformed

into dry lands and deserts due to improper use of forest and land resources. This situation has

become rampant and therefore making Ethiopia vulnerable to environmental degradation and

desertification.

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Figure 1.1. Map of Ethiopia in the context of African Continent
Economically, Ethiopia has one of the world’s fastest-growing economies. According to

the Central Intelligence Agency (2018), its Gross Domestic Products (GDP) grew by 8.0% in

2016/17, which is slightly lower than a growth rate of 10.4% in 2014. The economy is a mixed,

diversifying, and transformational economy with a large public sector. Ethiopian economy

produces goods and services to feed its citizens and some for export (Central Intelligence

Agency, 2018). The banking, transportation and telecommunication sectors are government-
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owned. For 2016/17 and 2017/18, investments in the energy and transport infrastructure; new

reforms to speed up industrialization, such as the development of industrial parks; and continued

progression in services are expected to lead growth.

1.1.2 Addis Ababa: The Capital City of Ethiopia

Addis Ababa was founded in 1887 and named Addis Ababa (“New Flower”) by the

empress Tayitu. It became the capital city of Ethiopia between 1889 and 1891. Addis Ababa is

located in the geographic center of the country and is described as the heart of Ethiopia.

Geographically, it is located on Latitude 9° 01' 29.89" N and Longitude 38° 44' 48.80" E on

(ERA, 2005 and CSA, 2007) (Fig. 1.2. It is physically located in the foothills of the Entoto

Mountains, which stands 3200 meters above sea level and the city itself has average elevation of

2356 meters and occupies 203.5 miles square. Climatically, the annual mean temperature of

Addis Ababa ranges between 16°C and 20°C April being its hottest month while December is

the coldest.

Addis Ababa is the largest capital city in Ethiopia, and serves the purpose of dual status:

being the nation’s as well as Oromia regional state’s capital city. It is also a seat for the African

Union (AU often called the "African Capital" due to its past history, diplomatic missions and

political significance for the continent. Addis Ababa has hosted Organization of African Unity

(OAU) since 1963. It also hosts the headquarters of the United Nations Economic Commission

for Africa (ECA) and many other continental and international organizations, and therefore often

referred to as "the diplomatic capital” of African continent.

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 Figure 1.2. Shows the study area (Addis Ababa)

1.1.3 Problems of Addis Ababa Urbanization

Addis Ababa has been attracting a greater percentage of people all over the country since

the 1960’s. According to the 2007 housing and population census of Ethiopia, the city’s

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population is 3,384,569 million. It is one of the fastest growing cities in sub Saharan Africa with

yearly population growth rate of 3.8. The city has witnessed the continuous influx of people.

Increasing demand of developmental land for purposes such as residential, commercial centers,

industrialization, commercial agriculture, institutional uses (universities) and others has led to

various kinds of environmental issues (Kassa, 2014). According to Kassa, (2014), common

environmental issues include but not limited to, deforestation, reduction of green spaces, erosion,

and the shrinking of fertile agricultural lands. Many people in farming communities dependent

on these lands are now poor and unemployed.

Additionally, the ever- growing Addis Ababa urbanization and urban sprawl have made

significant areas of and around the city dominated by crowded and settlements with bad living

conditions (Gumbo, 2010). These settlements are suffering from problems of lack of safe

housing and, portable water supplies, as well as electrification, and high level of pollution,

poverty, HIV, and social unrest (armed robbery, gambling etc.). Moreover, the inadequate or

lack of transport services and poor linking of the roads is creating commuting problems leading

to crowdedness and discomfort for users. This research therefore attempted to use remote sensing

data and geospatial technologies to understand urbanization and urban sprawl of and around

Addis Ababa in the past 32 years. In general, according to the Central Statistics Agency of

Ethiopia, the urban population in Ethiopian is projected to nearly triple from 15.2 million in 2012

to 42.3 million in 2037, growing at 3.8 percent a year and hence speeding up the rate of

urbanization, at about 5.4 percent a year (Bimerew, 2015).

1.2 Research Goal and Objectives

The main goal of this research is to examine the rate of urbanization and its implications

in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. This could be achieved through a thorough understanding, monitoring

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and modelling the LULC detection and change in Addis Ababa and surrounding Oromia zone

over the last 3 decades. Specifically, the study

1.) Detects, quantifies, delineates, and maps the LULC types of Addis Ababa and its

surrounding Oromia zones using the Landsat data of 1985, 2003 and 2017.

2.) Detects LULC changes and analyzes patterns of changes from 1985 and 2017.

Traditional methods of demographic and censuses data analysis are not adequate for

studying urbanization and its impact on environment. Integrated Remote Sensing (RS) and

Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technologies have been proven to be extremely

beneficial in the studying of LULC mapping, change detection and analysis. Hence, this study

used the integration of RS and GIS for mapping LULC types of Addis Ababa and its surrounding

Oromia zone and analyzed the changes over the past 3 decades.

CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Introduction

In order to analyze and investigate LULC changes, and monitor spatial dynamics at

various scales, it is necessary to review ideas, concepts and practices that have been performed

so far. This chapter reviewed related literatures applying to GIS remote sensing, the applications

for spatio-temporal LULC studies, what exists so far, gaps and what needs to be done. The

techniques of LULC mapping and change analysis and its implications on urban dynamics have

been reviewed.

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2.2 Geospatial Technologies: Geographic Information System and Remote Sensing

The contemporary usage of the term ‘Remote Sensing’ connotes the advance and

technical means of collecting earth’s information from distance. On the other hand, a geographic

information system (GIS) is a computer system capacitated to collect, store, manage, and

manipulate all types of geographical data, thereby to visualize, analyze, and interpret the

relationships, patterns, and trends of spatial phenomenon. Hence, remote sensing integrated with

GIS helps in mapping and monitoring LULC dynamics. While remote sensing will capture the

LULC types such as: urban/ built up area, forest, bare lands, wetlands or water surfaces in Addis

Ababa; the GIS evaluated analyses aerial extents, and temporal changes.

Space-borne satellites such as Landsat sensors delivers images that have a medium

spatial-resolution, which can adequately provide series of images of earth’s information.

(Lillesand and Kiefer, 1994; Eastman, 1995). Additionally, Landsat provides an unparalleled

data archive (i.e., since 1970s) and hence gives adequate data on the ability to assess spatio-

temporal changes (Jensen, 2005). For this study, historical Landsat 4-5 Thematic Mapper (TM),

Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), and contemporary Landsat 8 Operational

Land Imager (OLI)/Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) were used and evaluated LULC changes and

modeling Addis Ababa city growth between 1985and 2017.

2.3 Land Use/Land Cover: Concepts and Definitions

It is vital to review the concepts of the terms of Land Cover (LC) dynamics before

embarking on the study. According to the definition of Food and Agricultural Organization

(FAO, 2016), Land cover is the observed (bio) physical cover on the earth's surface such as

forest, herbaceous/grassland, Shrubland, built-up area, agriculture, wetlands, barren areas, open

water etc. On the other hand, Land Use (LU) encompasses the human activities which take place

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on the land consisting of, agriculture, forestry and even expanding to the context in which the

land is managed (Lillesand et al., 2008). Examples of land use are arable land, pastures field,

built-up areas, recreation, wildlife habitat, plantations etc. LULC change is a detection and

monitoring a long term dynamic in response to various local or global anthropogenic or climate

changes.

Information Classes are thematic categories of interest that is under consideration for

image classification (Natural Resource Canada, 2013). These are categories of land cover types

such as vegetation, built up, grassland, water bodies, wetland and others. LULC mapping is a

process that digitally classify electromagnetically digitally discernable information classes into a

series of thematic categories. Urban sprawl is a term used to describe uncontrolled expansion of

urban areas (urbanization) due to population migration from central urban area to low density

residential in the rural country.

2.4 Land use land cover (LULC) mapping

LULC mapping is a process that digitally classify electromagnetically discernable

information classes of the imagery into a series of thematic categories. Several studies have

devoted for LULC cover mapping (Mallupattu and Reddy, 2013; Olokeogun and Iyiola, 2014;

Rawata and Kumarb, 2015). For instances, Olokeogun and Iyiola, (2014) applied remote sensing

and GIS for LULC mapping of the Shasha forest reserve of Nigeria and mapped five thematic

categories of such as Water Body, Forest Reserve, Built up Area, Vegetation, and Farmland.

Similarly, Rawata and Kumarb, (2015) conducted LULC mapping of Hawalbagh block,

Uttarakhand, India and mapped five different LULC classes namely Vegetation, agriculture,

barren, built-up and Water body.

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 Moreover, Cheruto et al (2016) applied supervised classification-maximum likelihood

algorithm to Landsat data of Makueni County, Kenya and mapped into seven major LULC

classes i.e., Built up areas, croplands, water bodies, evergreen forests, bush-lands, grassland and

bare-land. Finally, Mallupattu and Reddy (2013) used Landsat imagery to map the metropolitan

areas of Tirupati, India and detected eight LULC classes for mapping. These were agriculture,

built -up area, dense forest, mining, open forest, other hand, plantation, and water spread area.

Consequently, this study opted to deploy similar approach and attempted to detect and map

anything from 5 to 8 classes of LULC in Addis Ababa and its environs.

2.5 Land use land cover (LULC) Change Detection

Land use land cover (LULC) Change Modeling is a process that quantifies current land

resources and how they are changing into a series of thematic categories, such as forest, water,

vegetation, built up and paved surfaces (Yirsaw, 2017). Several studies have devoted for land use

and land cover change modeling (Balakeristanan & Said, 2012; Rawat & Kumar, 2015; Butt et.

al., 2015; Cheruto et al, 2016). For instance, in an effort to quantify the LULC changes in

Makueni County, Kenya over the period of 2000 – 2016, Cheruto et al (2016) found significant

land transformation. Accordingly, there were conversions from evergreen forests to bush-land

(58.2%) and to croplands (51%); croplands to bare land (9%) and grasslands (8.7%) and bush-

lands converted to grasslands (42.4%) and bare-lands (30%) Cheruto et al, 2016. Similarly, Butt

et. Al., (2015) conducted a land use change mapping and analysis for Simly watershed

Islamabad, Pakistan and found a land change associated with vegetation and water bodies. The

study indicated a significant land cover shift such that settlements or built up area increased by

80.1%, vegetation and waterbodies (lake) shrunk by 38.2% and 74.3%, respectively, from 1992

to 2012.

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 Moreover, Rawat & Kumar (2015) applied change detection techniques on multi-

temporal LANDSAT imagery to understand landscape dynamics of Hawalbagh block district of

Almora, Uttarakhand, India. Between 1990 and 2010, the technique detected vegetation and

built-up area to have increased by 3.51% and 3.55%, while agriculture, barren lands and water

bodies decreased by 1.52%, 5.46% and 0.08%, respectively. Finally, Balakeristanan & Said

(2012) an attempt was made to detect the LULC changes of the Selangor, Malaysia, Shah Alam

using SPOT satellite imageries. Accordingly, it was found that the study area undergone rapid

forest land transformation from 24.4% in 1990 to 13.6% in 2010, while Built up land increased

from 12.47% to 29.18%, during the same period. This used supervised classification of

multispectral and multi-temporal satellite images of LANDSAT sensor and detected the LULC

changes of Addis Ababa and its environs from 1985 to 2017.

2.6 Causes of Urban Sprawl in Addis Ababa

Addis Ababa urban growth is taking place through 3 principal ways. These are: natural

(birth) rate, rural to urban migration and redistricting rural towns into cities.

a) The natural growth rate of the urban population

A considerable proportion of Addis Ababa’s urbanization is attributed to high natural

birth rate of 3.8% annual increase (e.g., Shack, 1973; CSA, 2007). According to CSA

(2007), Ethiopia and for that matter Addis Ababa’s birth rate, is too high even among

developing countries. This is due to early and universal marriage, kinship and religious

beliefs that generally encourage large families, a resistance to contraceptive practices,

and the absence of family planning services for most of the population (Deshingkar and

Grimm, 2004). It is traditionally believed that families with many children have greater

financial security and are better situated to provide for their elderly members (Todaro,

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 1997). As the population grows, urban sprawl encroaches into sparse, low-density

pushing city limits further and further out. It also results in increase in urbanization,

unemployment, income inequalities, social vice (armed rubbery), city congestion,

ecological stress, and population mal-distribution. This finally causes urban sprawl since

there would be higher demand for land.

b) Redistricting rural towns into a city

The creation and development of rural towns into cities leads to expansion of cities since

there would be the demand for the use of land, which finally cause urban sprawl.

Accordingly, to Teller et al., (2011), redistricting rural towns into a city a kind of

gerrymandering (creating the boundaries of electoral districts in smaller towns and cities),

and, is another factor that caused urbanization in Addis Ababa, which paved ways to the

merger of may Oromian smaller towns into a city. It is not unique only to Addis Ababa,

but also occurs throughout the country. Redistricting rural towns into a city leads to the

creation of other urban centers in different parts of the country.

c) Rural – urban Migration

The rapid growth of urban population in Addis Ababa and in many other developing

countries have been largely due to rural-urban migration. Almost half of Addis Ababa

population growth is attributed to rural-to-urban migration (ORAAMP, 2001; CSA, 2007;

Bimerew, 2015). For instance, according to CSA (2007), the number of migrants of

Hawassa town in Ethiopia has increased from 11,325 people in 1994 to 110,834 in 2007

due to rural-to- urban migration. Similarly, the Office for the Revision of the Addis

Ababa Master Plan (ORAAMP, 1999), estimated to be 70% of the total that occurs in the

slums and squatter settlements at the periphery of the city is attributed to urban-to-rural

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 migration. Many people migrate from the rural folks to settle in the city for better living.

The ultimate reasons for the drift of large numbers of people from rural to the urban areas

are the relative improvement of different facilities and better living conditions in the

urban areas compared to the rural areas is the main "pulling" factor (Tiffen, 1995). These

facilities include tertiary education, market centers, good jobs, recreational facilities, and

many more. However, the tide of migration to urban areas which is triggered by rural

"push" factors is consistently higher than the capacity of new job openings and the

provision of housing and others social services and amenities (Bimerew, 2015).

Consequently, there is a spread urban unemployment, rampant infestation of diseases,

over-crowded housing and severe shortage of public amenities in Addis Ababa.

2.7 Conclusion.

This review has evaluated studies investigated the benefits obtained from Remote

Sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) for urban LULC changes. It has looked into

several studies that have been devoted to digitally classifying electromagnetically discernable

information classes of satellites image into a series of thematic categories for LULC mapping.

Additionally, it reviewed some studies attempted to quantify changes in LULC over time.

Similarly, numerous efforts were made to underscore environmental implications of

uncontrolled, and unplanned expansion of urban areas into neighboring land resources for

various cities around the world. Furthermore, the review noted population growth as a main drive

behind Addis Ababa urbanization and factors contributing to its urban sprawl into the

surrounding Oromia zones.

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CHAPTER 3: MATERIALS AND METHODOLOGY

3.1: Data Acquisition and Description of the data.

In order to assess the pattern of urban sprawl in Addis Ababa, Landsat Thematic Mapper

“TM” was applied to take Landsat images from 1985, 2003 and 2017. The data for the research

is a sensor of Thematic Mapper (Archive level 1). Landsat images of 1985, 2003 and 2017 were

downloaded from the United States Geological Survey (USGS). The images were acquired

between the periods January–February, as this was a clear sky season in the region. Only images

with high quality standard (9) and Zero cloud cover with good cloud qualities were considered.

The images with good cloud qualities were then stacked together (band combination) in Erdas

imagine and prepared for classification after downloading. The images delivered after pre-

processing for their systematic as well as terrain distortions, geo-rectifying and referencing into

UTM spatially reference system. The Landsat images were taken at visible and infrared

wavelength with 30mx30m spatial resolution and 185m*185m swath width. The images were of

high quality as well as taken during clear sky days.

Table 3-0-1 Specifications of Landsat Thematic Mapper TM Images

Year Date of Image Sensor Cloud cover Image

Acquisition (%) Quality
(mm/dd/yyyy)
1985 01/02/1985 Landsat 4-5 Thematic 0 9
Mapper (TM)
2003 01/12/2003 Landsat 7 Enhanced 0 9
Thematic Mapper Plus
(ETM+)
2017 01/08/2017 Landsat 8 Operational 0 9
Land Imager (OLI)

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3.2: Land Use and Land Cover Classification Schemes

The LULC Classification Schemes is adopted from the one modified by New Jersey

Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP, 2010). The scheme creates a broader

framework developing information class that guided the digital image classification. Some of

these LULC types used in this study are listed as follows:

Settlement or Urban areas:

Urban area is a human settlement with high population density where much of the

land are covered by infrastructures including business districts, residential areas,

roads and other infrastructural facilities such as road network (highways and other

major roads), power, and communication etc.

Vegetation areas:

These are areas dominated by density populated trees and woodlands, where

greater than 20% of the landscape is covered by tree or forest vegetation.

Agricultural lands:

Agricultural lands are land cover devoted to represent cultivated crop or arable

lands. It is the land covered with various Teff, corn, maize, beans, and other crop

production.

Grass/Barren Lands:

This is land covered by short vegetation (grasses) or no grasses and mainly

covered with bare rock, gravel pits, pavement, soils or other earthen material etc...

It is vast portion of land (infertile) where plant growth may be sparse, stunted,

and/or contain limited biodiversity. It is also lands affected by toxic or infertile

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 soil, mining areas and climatic conditions are often key factors in poor plant

growth and development.

Lakes/Ponds:

It is inundated open water areas covered mainly by lagoons, ponds, Lakes

Reservoirs Bays Estuaries.

Wetlands:

Wetlands are transition zones between inundated ponds and surrounding uplands

where a hydrologic characteristics produced unique ecosystem. It occurs where

the water table is at or near the surface of the land, and could either be forested or

Emergent (non-forest) wetland.

Scrublands:

These are areas covered by extremely dispersed low trees, bushes or shrubs less

than 5m tall. It is also land areas that are degraded and/or not fertile enough to

vegetation growth.

3.3: Image Classification

Image classification is the process of grouping pixels, based on their Digital Numbers

(DN’s) into spectral and/or informational classes that capture some features that are interested in

mapping. There are two distinct types of classification. These are: supervised and unsupervised

classification. Source: Natural Resource Canada, (2013).

3.3.1: Unsupervised Classification

Unsupervised classification is a classification, where pixels with common characteristics

are grouped into a finite set of spectral classes based on their digital numbers or brightness

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values. It is conducted by a classifier without the user providing training sample classes. The

process of unsupervised classification involves a step by step approach- These are: choosing

bands that highlight differences in information classes; deciding on how many groups (classes)

to be classified; choosing appropriate grouping algorithm (e.g., Simple clustering, K-means, etc),

classifying the images (bands) and labelling classes and evaluating the results.

3.3.2: Supervised Classification

In supervised classification: image analyst “supervises” the selection of spectral classes

that represent patterns or land cover features that the analyst can recognize. Here, the image

processing software is guided by the user to specify the land cover classes of interest. The

sample of these land cover classes are called "training sites". The image classification software

was then used in the training sites to depict the appropriate classes in the entire image. The

classification of land cover is based exactly on the spectral signature that are defined in the

training set based on the knowledge of the user by examining these signatures that best

accentuates difference in land cover.

Training is the process of defining criteria by which spectral patterns are recognized,

developing informational class for each spectral class. Each pixel in the image data set is

categorized into the spectral class that closely resembles based on a mathematical decision rule

(Maxwell, 1976). It is absolutely important when the training area is a homogenous sample of

the respective class so that the comparison (between spectral and LULC) would be easier (Arai

1993). Two or more training area per class was considered to accommodate within class

variability. The process of training would end-up be creating informational classes (i.e., LULC

types) (Lillesand and Kiefer, 2014; Eastman, 1995). A statistical characterization for each

information class would then be developed using ERDAS IMAGINE software (2016 Version) to

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develop signature file known as “signature analysis”. Once a statistical characterization has been

achieved for each information class, the image is then classified by examining the reflectance for

each pixel and making a decision about which of the signatures it resembles most. (Eastman,

1995).

The “maximum likelihood”- classification algorithm is one of the most widely used

classification techniques in remote sensing. The maximum likelihood classifier is a conventional

statistical classification technique that allocates each pixel to the class with which the highest

likelihood (Mather & Koch, 2011). Hence, these classification techniques were used to map the

LULC of the study area.

3.4: Accuracy Assessment

Accuracy assessment is a term that is used to compare a classified map and a reference

data that are assumed to be true to determine the accuracy of classification result. It is possible to

increase the accuracy of a classification by decreasing the amount of detail or by generalizing to

broad classes rather than very specific one (Foody and Embashi, 1995). A typical strategy for

accuracy assessment is to use a statistically sound sampling design to select a sample of locations

(pixels) in the study region. One purpose of accuracy assessment is to permit quantitative

comparisons of different classification and subsequent interpretations. Map accuracy in remote

sensing measures the agreement between a standard that is assumed to be accurate and a

classified image of unknown quality (Campbell & Wynne, 2011). In most cases, the standard

data is derived from field survey (Congalton, 1991) and is also called reference data, although in

this study high resolution google earth imageries were used. Two statistical indices were used

for Accuracy Assessment: Kappa analysis and Error matrix.

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 Kappa analysis is a multivariate technique used to measure how the accuracy of map is

above and beyond the accuracy expected by chance KAPPA (Cohen, 1960; Congalton, 1991).

KAPPA as a powerful technique in its ability to provide information about the accuracy of image

classification and is calculated as by subtracting the chance of agreement from the actual

agreement of the error matrix. KAPPA ranges from 0 to 1.

Table 3-0-2. Interpretation of agreement for Kappa Coefficient

Value of Kappa-hat Interpretation of agreement

0.81 ≤ K ≤ 1.00 Almost perfect agreement
0.61 ≤ K ≤ 0.80 Substantial agreement
0.41 ≤ K ≤ 0.60 Moderate agreement
0.21 ≤ K ≤ 0.40 Fair agreement
0.0 ≤ K ≤ 0.20 Slight agreement
K ˂ 0.0 Poor agreement
Source (Landis and Koch, 1977)

On the other hand, an error matrix is an accuracy assessment defined as the proportion of

agreement between classified maps and the ones assumed to be the correct map. An error matrix

consists of a series of rows and columns. The headings of the rows and columns are the classes

of interest. The columns contain the reference data while the rows contain the classified

information. The intersection of the rows and columns summarize the number of Pixels, clusters

of pixels in particular category (class) (Jensen, 2015). The diagonal of the matrix, the numbers

represent the number of pixels that were correctly identified. The ratio of correctly classified

pixels by the total number of pixels produces an index that measures overall classification

accuracy.

Other accuracy indices were producer and user accuracies. The producer accuracy is a

measure of omission error. Errors of omission occur when a feature is left out of the category

being evaluated. It is a statistic that specifies the probability of a ground reference data being

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correctly classified. This statistic is calculated because the producer may want to know how well

an area can be classified. It is calculated by dividing the diagonal number from a class’s column

by the sum of the entire column including the number found within the diagonal (Jensen, 2015).

On the other hand, the user accuracy is a measure of the commission error. Errors of commission

occur when a feature is incorrectly included in the category being evaluated. An error of

omission in one category will be counted as an error in commission in another category. This

statistic indicates the probability of how well the classified sample represents what is found on

the ground, which is calculated by dividing the diagonal of a class by the sum of the numbers

within the row of that class (Jensen, 2015).

3.5: Post Classification Image “Smoothing”

Most classifications have a problem with “salt and pepper”, also known as speckles that

is a single or small groups of mis- classified pixels. It is often desirable to smooth the classified

output to show only the dominant classification to get rid of these through image smoothing

(Mather & Koch, 2011). Common smoothing operation is a majority filter. In majority filter, the

moving window replaces central pixel with majority class in a specified neighborhood (3x3

window). The smoothing process would not only ‘clean up' the image, making it visually less

noisy but also shape all edges and improve the accuracy of classification. This study deployed

ERDAS Imagine package to determine the filter window which can be (3 × 3) pixels, (5 × 5)

pixels, or (7× 7) pixels iteratively. Finally smoothed images were clipped into appropriated sizes

the study area.

3.6: Change Detection

Making a subsequent comparison to classified image from different dates is called change

detection. Change detection purely consists of making a comparison of change between “from”
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and “to” class for each pixel over time. It is good when all the applicable steps are applied

sequentially, these are area change and rate of changes, spatial distribution of changed types,

change trajectories of land-cover types and accuracy assessment of change detection results. In

this study, three separate LULC maps (1985, 2003, and 2017) were created. The map from 1985

was compared with the maps of 2003 and that of 2017 using a complete matrix of changes of

each category of LULC. Change areas are simply those areas which are not classified the same

feature at different times (Jensen, 2015). Different writers have reviewed change detection

applications such as ecosystem mapping, land use change analysis, forest management,

vegetation phenology, seasonal changes in pasture production, risk assessment and other

environmental changes (Singh, 1989).

3.7: Change Analysis

The IDRISI Land Change Modeler was implemented to investigate in Addis Ababa urban

growth and analyze land cover change. Land Change Modeler has been recognized and applied

as an important tool for the assessment, and analysis and prediction LULC change and its

implications (Eastman, 2012). The model consisted of Multilayer- layer Perception (MLP) neural

network that is applied for change detection and its analysis. . The model uses the classified

LULC types of 1985, 2003 and 2017 as input for identifying the locations and magnitude of the

major LULC changes. Moreover, it models the spatial trends to and from transitions of LULC

categories.

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CHAPTER IV: RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

4.1: LULC Map of Addis Ababa and Peri-urban Oromia Zone

4.1.1: Historical LULC Types of Addis Ababa and its surrounding Oromia Zone

Addis Ababa and its surrounding Oromia zone is, approximately, stretched over 4,326

km2. According to the classification result of the 1985 image (See Figure 4.1a & b), seven

LULC types were identified in the region. These are Agriculture, Grass/Bare land, Lakes/Ponds,

Scrublands, Settlement or Urban areas, Vegetation and Wetlands. The dominant LULC type of

the area was Agriculture, which stretched over 3,372 km2 (i.e., 77.9%), followed by Vegetation,

which occupied 759 km2 (i.e., 17.5%) and Settlement areas which occupies 115 km2 (i.e., 2.7%).

The remaining less than 2% of the landscape was covered by Grass/Bare land (i.e., 1.4%),

Lakes/Ponds (0.4%), Scrublands (0.06%, and Wetlands (0.02%).

Similarly, the classification of Landsat 2003 image of Addis Ababa and surrounding

area discovered the same 7 LULC types (See figure 4.1b). Still the dominant LULC type of the

area was Agricultural land, and it was stretched over 3,232 km2 (i.e., 75%) of the study area. This

was followed by Vegetation areas, which occupied 516 km2 (i.e., 12%), whereas human

Settlement occupied 276 km2 (i.e., 6%) of the landscape. Agricultural, Vegetation and Settlement

lands combined constituted 93% of the landscape, and the remaining four LULC types covered

only 7%. Accordingly, Grass/Bare land covered 5%, while Scrubland covered 2%, Lakes/Ponds

(0.34%), and Wetlands (0.04%).

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Figure 4.1. Classified LULC Map of Addis Ababa and its surrounding Oromia Zone: top is 1985
and bottom is 2003

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4.1.2: Contemporary LULC Types of Addis Ababa and its surrounding Oromia Zone,

2017.

The classification result of 2017 image of Addis Ababa and surrounding area discovered

the same 7 LULC types (See Figure 4.2). Agriculture land is still the dominant LULC type and

covers areas, which is stretched over 2,961 km2 (i.e., 68.40%) of the entire study area. This was

followed by Settlement/Urban areas which occupied 743 km2 (i.e., 17.14%), and Vegetation

lands stretched over 331 km2 (i.e., 7.7%). The Vegetation LULC type, which ranked second in

1985 and 2003 classified images was overtaken by Settlement/Urban areas as an indication of

increased city population and resulting urbanization. Agricultural land, Settlement/Urban areas

and Vegetation lands constituted to 93.24%, whiles the remaining four LULC types covers only

(i.e., 6.76%). Grass/Bare lands covered 185 km2 (i.e., 4.3%) of the study area, Wetlands also

covers 1.1 km2 (i.e., 0.03%), Lakes/Ponds occupied 10 km2 (i.e., 0.23%) and finally, Scrublands

occupied 95 km2 (i.e., 2.20%).

The historical and contemporary LULC types detected and mapped are typical of

heterogeneously complex Ethiopian (Kassawmar et al., 2018; Miheretu, & Yimer, 2018) as well

as related of East African highlands (Cheruto et al. 2016). For instance, the seven LULC types

that are found in the study area are similar to the forested land, Bareland, Grassland, Cropland,

Shrubland, and Urban built up areas found by Miheretu, & Yimer, (2018) found on Gelana sub-

watershed, Wollo region, and Northern Ethiopian highlands. Similarly, it is also consistent with

the 7 major LU/LC classes i.e., developed areas, agricultural lands, lakes/ponds, forest lands,

scrublands, grass/bare-land Cheruto et al. (2016) found Makueni County, Kenya, Eastern African

highlands.

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Figure 4.2. Classified LULC Map of Addis Ababa and its surrounding Oromia Zone in 2017.
4.2: Validation of LULC Maps Accuracies

The result of the accuracy assessment of the historical LULC map of Addis Ababa and

it’s environ is summarized and tabulated below in detail in Table 4-1. A total number of 120

pixels were selected at random from the reference data to validate the classification results of

1985, 2003 and 2017 images. Accordingly, there was an overall mapping accuracy of 84.0% and

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overall Kappa Statistics of 87.5% for the classification of 1985 image. Similarly, the overall

accuracy and Kappa statistics of the 2003 image were 91.77% and 89.2%, respectively, whereas

for the 2017 image, they were 95.7% and 94.4%. With overall classification accuracy ranging

from 84% to 95.7%, the resulting LULC maps were very accurate. Additionally, with the overall

Kappa statistics ranging from 87.5% to 94.4%, the agreement between the classified images and

actual LULC types on the ground is perfect. In general, the progressing increased in accuracy

indices from the 1985 to 2017 is perhaps indicating uncertainty and challenges associated with

constructing historical reference data. The validation of LULC maps Accuracies found are

comparable with the results of Friehat et al.., (2015) and, (2018).

The most accurately classified LULC types are Settlement/Urban areas and Lake/Ponds.

Both had the producer and User accuracy of 100%. These accurate mapping accuracy of

Urban/Settlement areas may have to do with a unique attention applied in selecting the training

sites and classifier-training. Either way this would transpire as a strength of the mapping given

the LULC type being the main theme of the study. On the other hand, the superior accuracy of

Lakes/Ponds could be due to conspicuous spectral absorption of open waterbodies at visible and

near infrared regions of electromagnetic spectrum. Agricultural lands and vegetation areas also

mapped with an excellent mapping accuracy (i.e., 84% to 94%) in Users and Producers

accuracies; respectively. The accuracy of scrublands, wetlands and Bare/grasslands were least

accurate (see Table 4:1) indicating the impact of diversity in these LULC types’ categories and

the resulting mixed pixel or spectral heterogeneity. Choodarathnakara, et al., (2012) specified

how mixed pixels and spectral heterogeneous poses a challenge in remote sensing data

classification for LULC mapping.

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Table 4.1. Summary of error matrixes for the classified images of 1985, 2003 and 2017.

Year LULC Categories Producer User Kappa

Accuracy Accuracy
Vegetation 83.3% 93.75% 93.0%
Settlement/ 100% 100.0% 100%
Urban Areas
Agriculture 92.0% 88.46% 80.0%
Grass/Bare Lands 72.7% 72.73% 70.0%
1985 Wetlands 100.0% 70.0% 68.0%
Lakes/ 100.0% 100.0% 100%
Ponds
Scrublands 72.73% 80.00% 78.0%
Overall accuracy 84.0%
Overall KIA 87.5%
Vegetation 83.3% 93.75% 93.0%
Settlement/ 100% 100.0% 100%
Urban Areas
Agriculture 92.0% 88.46% 80.0%
Grass/Bare Lands 72.7% 72.73% 70.0%
2003 Wetlands 100.0% 70.0% 68.0%
Lakes/ 100.0% 100.0% 100%
Ponds
Scrublands 72.73% 80.00% 78.0%
Overall accuracy 91.77%
Overall KIA 89.2%
Vegetation 83.3% 93.75% 93.0%
Settlement/ 100% 100.0% 100%
Urban Areas
Agriculture 92.0% 88.46% 80.0%
Grass/Bare Lands 72.7% 72.73% 70.0%
2017 Wetlands 100.0% 70.0% 68.0%
Lakes/ 100.0% 100.0% 100%
Ponds
Scrublands 72.73% 80.00% 78.0%
Overall accuracy 95.7%
Overall KIA 94.4%

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4.3: Change Detection

According to Figure 4.4 Addis Ababa and surrounding Oromia zones have shown

massive LULC changes from 1985 to 2017. Out of the Addis Ababa and Surrounding Oromia

zone total landmass, which amounts to 4326.4 Km2, 1220.7 Km2 experienced changes in LULC

types during the study period. Conversely, LULC changes were not detected in 3105.6 Km2 land

area. In general, change was detected in 28% of the landscape, while the remaining 72% was

unchanged.

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Figure 4.3. Map of Changed and Unchanged areas during the study period (1985 – 2017)
Table 4.2 shows specific LULC types that were changed. Accordingly, while Wetlands

and Lakes/Ponds have not changed much (i.e., combined less than 0.05% of the change), the

remaining LULC types have changed during the study period (1985 – 2017). The largest

proportion of the land transformation was due to Settlement/Urban areas, which accounted for

41% the changed landscape followed by Vegetation areas (i.e., 28%), Changes of Agricultural

lands, Grass/Barelands and Scrublands accounted for 27%, 8% and 6% of the land

transformation, respectively. In the observed landscape dynamics, Settlement/Urban areas,

Scrublands and Grass/Bare lands have gained more lands. Settlement/Urban areas increased from

115 km2 in 1985, to 276 km2 in 2003 and 743km2 in 2017. These were increases of 140% from

1985 to 2003, 169% from 2003 to 2017 and 546% from 1985 to 2017. Additionally, Scrublands

and Grass/Bare lands have increased from 2.4 km2 and 59 km2 in 1985, respectively to 86 km2

and 202 km2 in 2003 and 95 km2 and 185km2 in 2017.

The fivefold increase Settlement/Urban areas of Addis Ababa and surrounding Oromia

zones are typical urban growth rates for developing countries (Habila, 2018, Oyugi et al., 2017;

& Hassan et al., 2016). Habila (2018) documented Abuja and metropolitan area growth by 467%

over 28 years (i.e., 1988 – 2016). Similarly, in an effort to investigate the impact on the LULC

on the environmental quality of Nairobi and its environs, Oyugi et al (2017) reported

Urban/Settlement area growth by 238% over 22 years (i.e., 1988 – 2010). Equally, Hassan et al.

(2016), also reported a 213% increase of Islamabad, Pakistan within a time span that is 10 years

(i.e., 1992 to 2012), all indicating the similar and relative accelerated urban growth rates in

developing countries.

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29 | P a g e
 Such accelerated urban growth, as shown in this study, is often associated with

heightened environmental degradation (Habila, 2018; Mundia & Aniya, 2006). For example,

according to Habila, (2018), expanded urban growth of Abuja and its metropolitan area incurred

parallel increase in degraded lands by 113%. Similarly, Mundia & Aniya, (2006), noted

environmental degradation on the rural fringes of the Nairobi city owing to the city urbanization

over 24 years from 1976 – 2000. This affected both vegetation and agricultural lands, ceded

lands during the study period. Vegetation areas are the LULC types that lost most of their

original lands followed by Agricultural lands. It has decreased from 759 km2 in 1985, to 516 km2

in 2003 and 331 km2 in 2017. These were decreases of 32% from 1985 to 2003, 36% from 2003

to 2017 and 56% from 1985 to 2017. Additionally, Agricultural lands have decreased from 3,372

km2 in 1985, to 3,232km2 in 2003 and 2961 km2 in 2017, which were decreases of 4% from 1985

to 2003, 8% from 2003 to 2017 and 12% from 1985 to 2017. It is a reminder that concerns of

rapid urbanization in developing country is not just about social instability, infrastructural

failures, poor sanitation and waste management etc… but also degradation of the environment,

which must be given a due attention.

4.4: Change Analysis

Figure 4.4 showed the spatial distribution and analysis of LULC types that exerted

pressure on Agricultural lands and vegetation areas. Accordingly, between 1985 and 2003 the

largest changes (i.e., 175 km2) in LULC types was a conversion of Vegetation areas into

Agricultural lands, followed by a conversion of Agriculture lands in return into Grass/Bare lands

(i.e., 151 km2). Moreover, Agriculture lands have been converted into Settlement/ Urban areas

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 ´

Agriculture to Grass/Bare Lands

Agriculture to Scrublands
0 6,000
12,000 24,000 36,000 48,000
Agriculture to Settlement/ Urban Areas Kilometers

Vegetation to Agriculture

Figure 4.4. Spatial distribution and analysis of Major LULC changes a) between 1985 and 2003
on the top and b) between 2003 and 2017 at the bottom

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by 128 km2 and scrublands by 66 km2. Similarly, between 2003 and 2017 Agricultural lands and

Vegetation areas continued losing lands to other LULC types. While Vegetation continued losing

lands to Agriculture (i.e., 141 km2), it was Agriculture, which dominated the conversion by

losing lands mainly to Settlement/ Urban areas (i.e., 400 km2) and Grass/ Bare land (i.e., 58

km2). Settlement/Urban areas have also taken lands (i.e., 107 km2) from what had been

Vegetation areas in 2003.

Figure 4.5. Spatial distribution and analysis of Major LULC changes between 1985 and 2017
 In general, settlement/urban areas dominates the LULC changes gained its lands from the

conversion of Agricultural (i.e., 459 km2) as well as Vegetation (i.e., 171 km2) areas, indicating a

clear sign of urban encroachment into surrounding physical environment. The second largest

change was the conversion of Vegetation areas into Agricultural lands (i.e., 275 km2) signifying

the activities of displaced farming communities in clearing trees for putting under crop

production. Lastly, Agricultural lands have further converted into grass/ bare lands (i.e., 132

km2) and scrublands (i.e., 70 km2) as a sign of land degradation and perhaps following to

recuperate its degraded fertility.

The impact of urbanizations is particularly particularly Agriculture and Vegetation areas

are demonstrated (Habila, 2018, Friehat et. al., 2015; Prakasam, 2010). For instance, in an effort

to monitoring LULC changes of Abuja and its metropolitan area, Habila (2018) shown the

conversion of Agricultural lands into Urban built-up areas and Degraded lands. Similarly,

through 40 years LULC change studies of Kodaikanal Taluk, India, Prakasam (2010) detected a

transformation of Agricultural lands into Build-up areas. Moreover, over twenty-five years (1985

– 2010) observation of LULC in northeastern Illinois, Friehat et al. (2015), found loss of

Agricultural lands to Chicago urban growth; all indicating deleterious impact of urbanization on

agricultural land use.

4.5: The economic, Social and Environmental Implications of Addis Ababa Urbanizations

Addis Ababa city and its surrounding Oromia zone are experiencing rapid urbanization,

which involves massive construction activities (Young, 2014). The city is facing extraordinary

pressure to meet rapidly growing demands for housing and infrastructure causing various

environmental problems. For the construction, the city is acquiring materials such as aggregates,

gravels, sands, concrete, and clays by mining the landscape leaving behinds environmentally

33 | P a g e
degraded excavated lands, pits and quarries. These are huge scars on the environment of Addis

Ababa and its surrounding Oromia zone causing devalued aesthetic, loss of biodiversity, change

in natural topography and drainage, air pollution and some respiratory diseases (Tarekegn &

Gulilat, 2018). According to arekegn & Gulilat, (2018), in 2017 fiscal year alone, more than

800,000 Addis Ababa residents were stricken by respiratory diseases from the air pollution. In

addition, increasingly expanding impervious surfaces of the city, is reducing run-offs

concentration time, from heavy rainfalls, to effect a more frequent and excessive flooding

(Birhanu et al., 2016). The increased flooding due to urbanization and climate change is causing

erosion of unsealed roads and embankments; overflow, sedimentation and clogging of sewerage

systems, and disruptions to energy and other utility supplies.

The agricultural encroachment of the urbanization is undermining the productivity and

food security of the farmers surrounding the city (Derara, 2016). Farmers of surrounding Oromia

zone are known for producing surplus agricultural products to feed the city in particular and the

country in general. According to the household food security assessment conducted (Derara,

2016), for the farmers in Becho Woreda, surrounding Oromia zone, found that 38% of

households are now experiencing food insecurity due to shortage of farmland, lack of grazing

land, and poor soil fertility. Additionally, rapid urbanization is associated with widespread peri-

urban slums exposed to shortage of reliable and secure potable water, sanitation, and waste

management services (Bimerew, 2015). As a consequence, the population suffers from various

community health issues such as, but not limited to, Tyhoid, Diarrhea, Cholera, and other

parasitic diseases. In August 2016, a cholera (Acute Watery Diarrhea (AWD)) outbreak was

reported in Ethiopia, the majority of the cases were reported in the capital, Addis Ababa.

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 Finally, the rapid and unplanned growth of Addis Ababa city has also resulted in a social

instability characterized by widespread civil unrest and violence (Amnesty International, 2016;

Fleischman and Peck, 2015). According to report of Amnesty international in 2015, protests

reverberated hundreds of towns across Oromia, Ethiopia largest region. The protest was in

response to Addis Ababa urbanization and invoked master plan aimed at incorporated the

surrounding Oromia zone. It was also aggravated by resentment built from an already existing

stark rural-urban inequality, acute competition over land, land grab, evictions, and social

exclusion over years. In the unrest, protestors caused property damages and violence, which

triggered the state of emergency and security forces crackdown through widespread abuses,

extra-judiciary executions and mass arrests of youths in Oromia regional state.

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CHAPTER V: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

5.1: Conclusion

Several regional and global studies have indicated a trajectory of rapid urbanizations in

developing countries. Addis Ababa, being the state capital of Oromia regional government (i.e.,

the largest regional state in Ethiopia), nation’s capital and diplomatic capital of Africa is

experiencing influx of multitude people leading to urbanization and subsequent pressure on the

city’s resources and the surrounding environment. This study, used archive Landsat satellite

sensed data Addis Ababa urban growth over 32 years. Accordingly, 7 LULC types were

identified and classified from Landsat images. These are: Agricultures, Settlement/Urban,

Vegetation, Lake/Pond, Scrublands, Grass/Bare-lands, and Wetlands with overall accuracies and

Kappa statistics ranging between 84% and 87,6% to 95.7% and 94.4%; respectively. Agriculture

is the dominant LULC types of Addis Ababa and Surrounding Oromia zones (i.e., 68.4%),

following by Settlement/Urban (17.14%) and Vegetation areas (i.e., 7.7%). The remaining 6.76%

of the study area is consisted of Grass/Bare lands (i.e., 4.3%), Wetlands (i.e., 0.03%),

Lakes/Ponds (i.e., 0.23%) and Scrublands (i.e., 2.20%).

The contemporary LULC distribution is a departure from what it was in 1985, showing a

clear LULC changes over the 32 years’ study period. In general, land transformations were

detected on 28% of the study area and the majority of the changes were Settlement/Urban areas

(i.e., 41%), followed by Vegetation area (i.e., 28%) and Agricultural lands (i.e., 27%).

Settlement/Urban areas increased approximately five folds the size it was in 1985, substantiating

rapid urbanization of Addis Ababa. Settlement/Urban expanded on the lands that were originally

agricultural lands and Vegetation areas. Additionally, although the land degradation

characterized by transformation into Grass/Bare lands and Scrublands took place only at 8% and

36 | P a g e
6% of the landscape, respectively; they increased by 2 and 30 folds their sizes of 1985, indicating

the environmental impacts of urbanization in developing country. These land degradations

occurred mainly on the lands that were historically occupied by crop production. There have not

been significant changes on areas occupied by Wetlands as well as Lakes/Ponds. Loses of

Agricultural areas to urbanization and degraded lands are significant considering food production

and security to the growing population in the region. It has been shown that local farmers in the

region, which was once known for surplus agricultural production is now experiencing food

shortage, land scarcity and poor soil fertility.

5.2: Recommendations

This study has ascertained the fast growing Addis Ababa and surrounding Oromia

zones. In the country where 82% of the employer is the government, Addis Ababa status as the

capital city of Oromia regional state, the nation and continent will continue to draw massive

people from all over the country. Additionally, in the country where 80% of the population lives

in the rural area, the relative economic opportunities in the city vis-a-vis rural will likely attract

considerable rural-urban migration for unforeseen future. Therefore, the ongoing and anticipated

rapid urbanization would call for various recommendations: Addis Ababa sustainable urban

planning, Compact city, Secondary Cities, Edge city and Urban-Rural connection.

1. Sustainable urban planning:

Urban planning is a process of designing and development of urban land uses;

such as residential aria, business (commercial) districts, industrial zones, open space and

recreational, and institutional and public building. Whereas, sustainable urban planning

is concerned with the planning exercised without compromising intergenerational equity

of resource distribution. Sustainable urban planning defuses burdens on public

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 infrastructure, and utility facilities; advances access to services, activities, and public

spaces, and suppresses stresses on the ecosystem. Hence, it is critical for Addis Ababa

urban planning to adapt a planning that will curb risks of environmental and resource

deteriorations identified in this study.

2. Secondary cities (sub-national city):

In the urban hierarchy, secondary cities are cities that follow after primate city,

which is usually the largest city in the country. Addis Ababa is a primate city, as it is a

leading city with a population of nearly 5 million, while the second populous city in

Ethioipia is Dire Dawa which has a population of 0.5 million people. Secondary cities

have various values, especially in developing countries where primate cities are

experiencing massive movement of rural-to-urban population migration. Secondary cities

host localized production (i.e., manufacturing of agricultural produces), deliver service

and facilities, and connect rural and urban areas (i.e., intermediary city), thereby

providing employment and economic opportunities for the local population. According to

world population review (2019), there are 9 second tier cities (i.e., Dire Dawa, Mek'ele,

Nazret, Bahir Dar, Gondar, Dese, Hawassa, Jimma and Bishoftu) in Ethiopia with

population range from 100, 000 to 0.5million. These cities are mostly sub-national cities

(i.e., capital of regional states) or charter city (e.g., Dire Dawa) that if revitalized would

diffuse pressure on Addis Ababa city urbanization.

3. Compact City

In this study, myriad environmental and social deteriorations in the surrounding

Oromia zone were blamed on reckless and rapid horizontal expansion of Addis Ababa

city. Hence, Addis Ababa city planning need to consider a compact city design and

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 development. The Compact city design emphasizes efficiency through the development a

high density and transit-oriented residential, commercial, recreational, institutional etc...

land uses. This city layout would also enhance the city municipal’s ability of conducting

infrastructural development and provision of services (e.g., health, education, etc…) and

utility supplies (e.g. electricity, water supplies, sanitation, etc...). Given financial and

resource limitation facing the city to cater utilities to growing urban population, Addis

Ababa’s must consider compact city for its efficiencies.

4. Edge cities

Edge Cities are cities located in the peripheries of a major city. They often consist

of commercial, residential and work centers to stand as functionally independent urban

center. Edge cities are becoming a preferred destination for headquarters of world

renowned companies due to a relative cheap land values and public safety. Additionally,

their relative larger spaces living, higher green space to building ratio and high quality of

life have made edge cities magnet for effluents’ residence. Oromia surrounding zone has

various towns surrounding Addis Ababa cities, which can be developed into edge cities.

Hence, the urban planning of Addis Ababa and Oromia regional government urban

planning office have to work hand-in-hand to developing these towns into edge cities and

dispel the ever inflating Addis Ababa city population.

5.3: Limitations

The LANDSAT satellite sensed remote sensing data was helpful for mapping

historical, contemporary LULC types as well as changes on the landscape. Nevertheless, there

are some limitations to this research endeavor. For example, the classification made to map the

LULC types of the study area was based on the ground truth data collected by the help of high

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resolution images of Google earth. Hence, the LULC mapping as well as Change detection have

been done without visiting the study area to view these LULC types visually. The visit to Addis

Ababa and its surrounding Oromia zone for ground truths could have improved the results even

further.

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 7. VITA

Lucas Boakye

Mr. Boakye is currently pursuing a Master of Arts Degree in Geography with

Geographic Information Science Concentration at Chicago State University. He is a

graduate of Environment and Resource Management Option (ERMO) at University For

Development Studies, Tamale. Ghana. He worked with the research team at the

University for Development Studies, Ghana as part of the academic curriculum whiles

pursuing his degree.

Mr Boakye was active member of LSC Communications, Bolingbrook, Illinois but

currently working for Turano Company, Chicago. Finally, Mr. Boakye is a member of

the American Association of Geographers (AAG) and Gamma Theta Upsilon and

recipient of academic awards namely: International Geographical Honor Society, Delta

Theta received in May 2018.

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