Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences

Department of Geography and Geo-Information Sciences

Monitoring urban growth and land use change detection using GIS and Remote Sensing
techniques in Bulawayo
Dissertation
By
Vuyo Nleya
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Supervised by
Dr. S. Sibanda
Submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements of Diploma in GIS and Remote
Sensing

©November 2022
Lupane, Zimbabwe
 RELAESE FORM

Student Name: Vuyo Nleya

Title of Project: Monitoring urban growth and land use change detection using GIS and remote
Sensing techniques in Bulawayo.

Program: Diploma in GIS and remote sensing

Year of Award: 2022

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in retrieval system, or
transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording and/or
otherwise without the prior written permission of the publisher. Permission is hereby given to the
Lupane State University to produce single copies of this dissertation and to lend or sell such
copies for private, scholarly, or scientific research purpose only.

Signed:..…………………………………………………………………………

Permanent Address: 5857 Mabhikwa high school

Date… ………………………………….

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 APPROVAL FORM

The undersigned certify that they have supervised the student Vuyo Nleya Project entitled
‘Monitoring urban growth and land use change detection using GIS and Remote sensing
techniques in Bulawayo’, submitted in Partial fulfillment of the requirements for Diploma GIS
and remote sensing with the Lupane State University.

…………………………………………… …………………………….........................
SUPERVISOR DATE

…….……………………………………… ……………………………........................
CHAIRPERSON DATE

….………………………………………… ……………………………........................
EXTERNAL EXAMINER DATE

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 DECLARATION

I, Vuyo Nleya do hereby declare that this dissertation is the result of my own investigation and
research, except to the extent indicated in the Acknowledgements and References and by
acknowledged sources in the body of the report, and that it has not been submitted in part or full
for any other degree to any other University or College.

______________ ___________

Student signature Date

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 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

First and foremost would like to thank the Almighty God for his protection and eternal guidance
in the last of my project. To my academic supervisor DR S. Sibanda I would like to extend my
deepest and sincere gratitude and most sincere of your guidance and patience with me towards
the completion of the project, also expressing my thanks to my brother for his support.

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 ABSTRACT
Urban growth is one of the major driving forces of (LUC) land use change, which is caused by
fast urbanization, especially in developing countries like Zimbabwe. It is mainly caused by rural-
urban migration, unorganized urban expansion, and rapid increase in population. This context
focused on assessing urban growth and land use change detection using GIS and remote sensing
techniques. I classified Landsat images using (MD) minimum distance and analyzed built-up
land and unbuilt-up land. Accuracy assessment revealed that the overall accuracy ranged from
98% to 99%. The results show that MD is a reliable technique for mapping urban LUC maps.
Change detection analysis results showed that the built-up area increased from 31.7 km 2 to 222.8
km2, whilst unbuilt-up land declined from 509.4 km2 to 318.8 km2 of the entire land of the study
area throughout 1984, 2002, and 2022. Predictions were done using the ANN modeler and a
simulation for the 2030 LUC map was created based on MCCA. The computed area for 2030
LUC demonstrates that built-up land will increase from 222.8 km2 to 243.1 km2, while
unbuilt-up land declined from 318 km2 to 297.5 km2. These LU Shifts are the driving forces of
environmental issues like increased runoff, reduced infiltration, high temperatures, and an
increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

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 Table of Contents
RELAESE FORM.........................................................................................................................i
APPROVAL FORM....................................................................................................................ii
DECLARATION........................................................................................................................iii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS........................................................................................................iv
ABSTRACT.................................................................................................................................v
LIST TABLES...........................................................................................................................vii
LIST OF FIGURES..................................................................................................................viii
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS.................................................................viii
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION TO THE STUDY...................................................................1
1.1 Introduction............................................................................................................................1
1.2 Background to the study........................................................................................................1
1.3 Problem statement..................................................................................................................2
1.4 Justification of the study........................................................................................................2
1.4.1 To Lupane state university..................................................................................................2
1.4.2 To local government and urban planners............................................................................3
1.5 Main aim................................................................................................................................3
1.5.2 Specific objectives of the study..........................................................................................3
1.6 Research questions.................................................................................................................3
1.7 Conceptual framework...........................................................................................................3
1.8 Outline of the study................................................................................................................4
CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW.....................................................................................4
2.1 Introduction............................................................................................................................4
2.2 Theoretical review..................................................................................................................5
2.2.2 Concentric theory................................................................................................................5
2.2.3 Sector theory.......................................................................................................................6
2.3 Empirical review....................................................................................................................8
2.3.1 Impacts of LUC on the environment...................................................................................8
2.3.2 Prediction of urban area growth over the period between 2022 and 2030.........................8
2.4 Literature gap.........................................................................................................................9
CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY.............................................................................................10

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 3.1 introduction..........................................................................................................................10
3.2 study area.............................................................................................................................10
3.3 Research design....................................................................................................................11
3.4 Sampling frame....................................................................................................................12
3.5 Methods of collecting data...................................................................................................12
3.6 DATA ANALYSIS..............................................................................................................12
3.6.1 Image processing...............................................................................................................12
3.6.2 Image classification...........................................................................................................13
3.6.2 Change detection analysis.................................................................................................13
3.6.3 Future predictions.............................................................................................................14
3.7 Limitations of the study.......................................................................................................14
CHAPTER 4: RESULTS AND DISCUSSION.........................................................................15
4.1 Introduction..........................................................................................................................15
4.2. Accuracy assessment...........................................................................................................15
4.2.1 Detecting LULCC that occurred throughout (1984, 2002, and 2022)..............................15
4.2 Prediction of urban growth over the period between 2022 and 2030.................................19
4.4 The impacts of LULC change on the environment..............................................................20
CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSION....................................................................................................23
5.1 Introduction..........................................................................................................................23
5.2 Conclusion...........................................................................................................................23
5.3 Recommendations................................................................................................................24
REFERENCES...........................................................................................................................25

LIST TABLES
Table 3.1. Summary of Landsat images used............................................................................................12
Table 3.2. Land use/ land cover classification scheme..............................................................................13
Table 4.1 show the accuracy assessment results........................................................................................15
Table 4.2 Land use/ cover change.............................................................................................................16
Table 4.3 shows urban growth rates..........................................................................................................18
Table 4.4 land use change between 2002 and 2030.......................................................................19

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 LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 2.1 illustrate the concentric theory. Adapted from EW Burgess (1920s)........................................10
Figure 2.2 illustrate the sector model also known as the Hoyt model........................................................11
Figure 3.1 Location of the study area. Made with QGIS using sentinel 2 images in bands 2, 3, 4, and 8.
Acquired on 14 October 2022....................................................................................................................15
Figure 4.1 Land use/ cover maps for 1984, 2002, and 2022......................................................................21
Figure 4.2 changes that took place in built-up land and unbuilt-up land between (1984 and 2002), (2002
and 2022)...................................................................................................................................................22
Figure 4.3 Cellular Automata predicted urban growth for 2030................................................................24

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

GIS Geographic Information System

LUC Land Use Change

LULC Land Use Land Cover

CAM Cellular Automata-Markov

ANN Artificial Neural Network

MCE Multi-Criteria Evaluation

WOE Weights of Evidence

LR Logistic Regression

MCCA Monte Carlo Cellular Automata

ROI Region of Interest

SCP Semi-automatic Classification Plugin

LCC Land Cover Change

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 CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION TO THE STUDY
1.1 Introduction
The focal point of the study is to monitor urban growth and detect LUC in Bulawayo using GIS
and remote sensing techniques. This chapter gives a summary of the study and explains its
primary goal. The study's background, problem statement, justification, primary goal, precise
objectives, research question, conceptual framework, and overview are all included in this
chapter.

1.2 Background to the study

Urban expansion is characterized as an increase in the number of people living in urban regions
brought on by some or all rural-urban migration, natural population growth, boundary changes,
or the categorization of rural villages as urban areas (ICED Agency, 2017). Monitoring urban
expansion is the process of examining changes in an entity's or phenomenon's state over time
through remote observation. Monitoring results are influenced by anthropogenic influences as a
consequence of environmental changes generated by individuals (Pilonet, 1988). According to
Hegazy and Kaloop (2015), Growth monitoring is a method for detecting and summarizing
changes in LULC attributes based on jointly registered multi-temporal remote sensing data.

The debate concerning environmental sustainability is centered on shifts in LULC, one of the
main drivers of environmental change on a global scale. Several perspectives on the topic have
been looked at to determine the causes, procedures, and effects of LULC change (Allen and Lu,
2003). Urbanization, in particular the shift of industrial and residential property from rural areas
to the fringes of large cities (Hegazy and Kaloop, 2015). Rapid urban sprawl, land degradation,
or the transformation of farmland to shrimp farming which has a significant negative impact on
the environment are some characteristics of the speedier changes in LUC than ever before,
especially in developing countries (Sankhala and Singh, 2014).

This type of shift has a significant impact on the local and regional environment, which in turn
has an impact on the global environment. Changes in LC caused by humans, for example, have
an impact on the global carbon cycle and contribute to the increase in atmospheric CO 2 (Hegazy
and Kaloop, 2015). It is consequently essential to study changes in LULC to determine their
consequences on the terrestrial ecosystem and design sustainable land use planning.

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 Urban expansion is the root cause of many urban environmental issues, such as worsened air
quality, flooding, increased local temperatures, and declining water quality. According to
Hegazy and Kaloop (2015), Egypt's urbanization has caused major losses in agricultural land and
water supplies. They also asserted that Egypt is home to several cities that are expanding quickly
and display a variety of growth trends.

In their study, changes in land use detection were examined using geospatial technologies,
remote sensing, and GIS was utilized to evaluate the detection of LU change in Mansoura and
Talkha from 1985 to 2010. An investigation of LU change detection found that built-up areas
increased by more than 30%, from 28 to 255 km2, whereas agricultural land fell by 33%.

In most remote sensing applications, land usage and urban expansion are observed by analyzing
two recorded, aerial, or satellite multi-spectral bands from the same geographic area acquired
from two separate times. In the same area, changes that have occurred between the two
timeframes under examination are sought after in this type of analysis (Radke et al., 2005). As a
result, this study aimed to track urban development and identify LU change, with a particular
emphasis on changes in LULC change that occurred in Bulawayo. It also included information
on the effects of these changes on the environment and projected future urban area growth
between 2022 and 2030.

1.3 Problem statement

Rapid expansion, shifting land uses, and ill-planned development in Bulawayo have resulted in
urbanization with inadequate infrastructure. Urban sprawl, a result of urbanization, is brought on
by this growth, and as a result, the previously undeveloped territory is progressively transformed
into a built-up area with buildings and other infrastructure. Additionally, it adds to the
designation of rural regions as urban, expanding Bulawayo's boundaries. One of the main factors
influencing the environment, from its natural cover types to the more built-up area, is population
increase.

1.4 Justification of the study

The section provides the justification and the practical importance of the study to the different
geographic agencies. The study will be important to University students, local government, and
urban planners.

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 1.4.1 To Lupane state university
The research will provide a literature review for further research. The study will benefit GIS and
Remote sensing students by giving practical insights. The study will also be used as a case study
for the preceding semesters.

1.4.2 To local government and urban planners

The study will play an important role in assisting the local government and urban planners in
formulating better plans for the sustainable development of the city. The study will also reveal
the importance of examining LUC, so that its effect on the terrestrial ecosystem can be known,
therefore assisting the local government to formulate sustainable land use plans.

1.5 Main aim

 Monitoring urban growth and land use change detection using GIS and Remote sensing
techniques.

1.5.2 Specific objectives of the study

 To detect LUC that occurred throughout (1984, 2002, and 2022)
 To predict the urban area growth over the period between 2022 and 2030.
 To investigate the impacts of LUC on the environment.

1.6 Research questions

1. What were the LUC that took place in the period of (1984, 2002, and 2022) in terms of
built-up and unbuilt-up areas?
2. What are the future projections for urban growth?
3. What is the harm imposed by LUC on the environment?
1.7 Conceptual framework
Urban expansion is described as a complicated, ambiguous, and unclear spatial-temporal
phenomenon (Al-Darwish et al., 2018). Land-use change refers to a shift in how a particular area
of land is utilized or administered by humans, whereas land-cover change pertains to the shift in
the continual attributes of the land, such as vegetation type, soil conditions, etc. (Patel, Verma,
and Singh, 2019).

Landsat images were acquired in USGS Earth explorer. The acquired images were classified
according to the classification scheme in (Table.1), using SCP-supervised MD, to detect LUC for

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 the past period of (1984, 2002, and 2022). Over this period the built-up area increased while the
unbuilt-up area decreased confirming that there is urban growth. The future predictions also
indicate that the built-up area continues to increase.

According to Wiesner et al. (2012), conversion of the earth's land surface to urban use is one of
the most irreversible human impacts on the biosphere, hastening the loss of highly productive
farmlands, affecting energy demand, altering climate change, modifying hydrological and
biochemical cycles, and reducing biodiversity.

1.8 Outline of the study

This project is organized into five chapters. Chapter 1 is the introductory chapter. Here the
objectives are outlined as well as the importance of the study. It also gives a general overview of
the research.

Chapter 2

This chapter focuses on the review of the literature which presents the research findings of other
scholars which are related to my study, additionally, the chapter also presents an empirical
review of other researchers who also researched the prediction of urban growth over a certain
period.

Chapter 3

Describes the study area. The research design used is indicated and explained. Methods of
collecting data are stated and explained, additionally, data analysis procedures used are
explained. Limitations of the study are also addressed.

Chapter 4

This chapter presents results and discussions. The chapter issues the result of the study. It gives a
depth analysis of empirical findings.

Chapter 5

This chapter composes of a conclusion and recommendations.

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 CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Introduction
This section concentrates on a review of the existing research on the detection of urban growth
and land use change using GIS and remote sensing techniques. The study also examined various
urban development theories. The circumferential model as well as the sector theory are among
the theories examined. Besides the theoretical review, the chapter includes an empirical review
of different scholars who investigated the environmental impacts of LULCCs and the prediction
of feature urban growth.

2.2 Theoretical review

This section focuses on the theories of urban development. The theories reviewed include
concentric theory and sector theory.

2.2.2 Concentric theory

EW Burgess created the circular theory of urban land use around the middle of the 1920s,
according to Rodrigue (2020). The premise behind the concentric zone concept of urban land
utilization is that cities grow by radially spreading out from their centers in concentric circles of
development. It supports sustainable urbanism from the standpoint that it divides the
metropolitan area into five broad zones: 1) the central business district, which serves as the hub
of urban activity and the intersection of transportation systems, 2) the zone of transitions, which
is made up of an industrial district and some homes, 3) the zone of industrial facilities and
working men's residences, 4) the residential zones, which include newer and more spacious
homes for the middle class, and 5) Upper-quality houses predominated in the outer commuting
zones' land use ring. In Chicago, this principle was applied.

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 Figure 2.1 illustrate the concentric theory. Adapted from EW Burgess (1920s)

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 2.2.3 Sector theory
According to Bhaduri (2017), the sector model, also known as the Hoyt model, was put forth as a
concept concerning urban land use in 1939 by economist Homer Hoyt. In this instance, the
concentric zone paradigm of city growth has been altered. One benefit of employing this
paradigm is the capacity to advance growth in an outer manner. While admitting the existence of
a core commercial district, Homer Hoyt recommended in 1939 that zones spread away from the
downtown area along railways, highways, as well as other transportation arteries. For instance, in
Bulawayo, affluent residential areas grew east of the central commercial district along the
prestigious Harry Allen Golf Club, and industrial areas that followed railroad tracks grew west
along Kelvin West.

Source:planningtank.com

Figure 2.2 illustrate the sector model also known as the Hoyt model

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 2.3 Empirical review
This section presents the research outcomes of relevant prior scholars as well as the various
methodologies and research techniques they employed. The section also includes an analysis and
synthesis of previous researchers' findings.

2.3.1 Impacts of LUC on the environment

One of the study's goals is to look into the environmental effects of LUCs. Bajocco (2012)
conducted a similar study along the coastal region of Sardinia, Italy, intending to assess the soil
degradation dynamic under changing land use covers. Land abdication and unsustainable use of
rural and peri-urban areas were found to be the two factors influencing the level of land
vulnerability to deterioration in the study area.

Walker et al. (2002) used GIS and remote sensing to carry out the same investigation in Bahir,
Ethiopia. They obtained information using digital maps and satellite pictures. The results showed
that whereas aquatic bodies declined by 40 ha, built-up land rose by 14%. As a result of the
LULC change, there was an increase in developed land at the expense of the natural
environment. Additionally, modifications to the microclimate, the transformation of scenic
alpine terrain into a quarry site, and the transformation of wetland and water body shorelines into
permeable constructions.

2.3.2 Prediction of urban area growth over the period between 2022 and 2030
Predicting the rise of urban areas between 2022 and 2023 is the study's other goal. In Bonjoord,
Iran, Brahimipour, Aadat, and Arshchin (2016) conducted a similar study, to forecast how land
usage will evolve over the next 50 years, using a 10-year interval between 2020 and 2070, the
hybrid Cellular Automata-Markov (CAM) model was used. According to their study, if the
process of population growth and land use change continues around the city, the urban area will
double by 2070. In addition, the amount of agricultural land will decrease by 50%.

In a study, models for spatial simulation in Ibb City, Yemen, were created using cellular
automata and fuzzy sets (Al-Darwish et al., 2018). These models are a part of a Geographic
Information Systems (GIS) platform. Their research revealed that urban growth was evenly

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 spread, with a large proportion of increase occurring in urban regions, from 28.41% in 2013 to
43.11% in 2030.

Rana and Sarkar also carried out an identical investigation in Bangladesh's Pabna Municipality in
2021. The LULCC change detection strategy was employed in their study, using geospatial
modeling to analyze several land cover patterns in the Pabna Municipality. As a result, their
study examined CAM and Multi-layer models to determine land cover for 2023 and 2028.
According to the study, the urban area increased by 3.39% between 1998 and 2018, reaching
8.79%. Urban built-up land will cover 11.01 square kilometers in 2023 and 12.44 square
kilometers in 2028, up from the current 3.39%.

2.4 Literature gap

The previous studies have been focusing on the future urban growth and impacts of LULCC on
the environment in more developed countries, not much has been done on monitoring urban
growth and LULCC detection in developing countries. This study enclosed the gap by focusing
on Bulawayo's urban growth and detecting LULCC.

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 CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY

3.1 introduction
The chapter indicates an area of study. The chapter addresses the research design, and also
indicates the strategy used by the researcher, additional methods of data collection and
processing are discussed. The data sets acquired are shown in (table3.1). The limitation of the
study is outlined. The location of the study area is shown in the map in figure3.1.

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 3.2 study area
Bulawayo is Zimbabwe's second-largest city and the capital of Matabeleland. The study area is
located in southwestern Zimbabwe along the Matshe-amhlope River. It is situated between

longitude 20.170 S and latitude 28.580 E. Bulawayo has a land area of approximately 546 km2.
The elevation is 1358 meters. The city has a dry cool winter season from May to August, a hot
dry period in the early summer from late August to early November, and a wet period from early
November to April for the rest of the summer. The hottest month is October, which is also the
dry season's peak. The average maximum temperature ranges from 21 degrees Celsius in July to
30 degrees Celsius in October.

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 3.3 Research design
The study utilized the case study strategy. The study will focus on Bulawayo as the area of the
case study using a longitudinal case study, since the study focuses on monitoring urban growth
and land use change detection over different periods (1984, 2002, and 2022).

The study will implement a quantitative approach through land use change detection analysis
paying attention to changes in built-up areas, unbuilt areas, and water bodies’ areas. The study
will employ QGIS to classify images and calculate the area of each class.

3.4 Sampling frame

Cities in Zimbabwe that satisfy the following criteria make up the sampling frame:

 Has heavy and light industries,

 Falls under special economic zones, and
 Has seen recent significant expansion

Since Bulawayo is a special economic zone and no comparable research has been done, I chose it
from the sampling frame. It is also one of the cities that has seen the most rapid expansion in
recent years.

3.5 Methods of collecting data

The research mainly relied on secondary data since the study requires satellite images for the
study area which were downloaded from USGS Earth explorer. I acquired Landsat 5 TM scenes,
one Landsat 7 ETM+, and one Landsat 8 for LUC mapping. All Landsat image dates (1984,
2002, and 2022) were chosen from free cloud scenes collected during the post-rain seasons
(winter, and early summer). QGIS software was used for image analysis and image interpretation
in the creation of LUC maps. I used Bulawayo provincial boundary, so to provide an allowance
for future urban prediction since the city boundary map is smaller. The maps obtained were
studied and analyzed to detect the change in urban growth/ sprawl.

Table 3.1. Summary of Landsat images used

Sensor Date path/row

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 Landsat5 TM 15/07/1984 171/074
Landsat 7 ETM+ 02/08/2002 171/074
Landsat 8 10/06/2022 171/074

3.6 DATA ANALYSIS

3.6.1 Image processing
QGIS was used to manipulate digital image processing. The scenes were chosen so that they
could be geometrically corrected and calibrated. The images were clipped using the area of study
boundary so that I work with the area of interest. The data was divided into zones, and the land
cover patterns within the zones had comparable characteristics.

3.6.2 Image classification

GIS software is very expensive, QGIS was chosen because it is a open-source software. In the
SCP, the images were classified using a supervised minimum distance classifier (MD). A virtual
layer was created using SPC. SCP adds more options for improving a region of interest (ROI)
while changing the spectral signatures for different classes. The training data provided by the
user guide software for determining which type of pixel is chosen for specific land cover types.
The classification provides the final LULC image of the area. In the study area, four land cover
classes will be identified: vegetated land, water bodies, barren land, and built-up land. The
classification accuracy of the maps was evaluated using the producer's accuracy, the user's
accuracy, and Kappa statistics derived from the confusion matrix.

Table 3.2. Land use/ land cover classification scheme

Land use/cover Description
Unbuilt-up land: sparse vegetation, wood areas, bushes, cultivated
Land, fallow land and bare land, and irrigated
Land, grass cover, recreation areas, and shrubs

Build up land: transportation, utilization, residential

Construction site, commercial, transportation
And solid waste landfills,

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 Water bodies: river and reservoir

3.6.2 Change detection analysis

The difference between images of the same place taken at separate times is described and
quantified by change detection analysis. The classified images from the three dates can be were
to compute the area of each land cover. They can also be used to observe the changes that occur
throughout the data. This analysis is extremely useful in identifying the various changes
occurring in various classes, such as an increase in urban built-up land and a decrease in unbuilt-
up land.

3.6.3 Future predictions

To forecast future urban growth, the MOLUSCE plugin was used. MOLUSCE models land
use/cover transition potential using Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Multi-Criteria Evaluation
(MCE), Weights of Evidence (WOE), and Logistic Regression (LR) methods; in this study, ANN
was chosen as the modeling method. A Monte Carlo Cellular-automata simulation of the 2030
land use/cover map was created.

3.7 Limitations of the study

 Costly GIS software led the researcher to use QGIS since its open-source software with
can be used by anyone.
 Some of the best comparable research were not open access.
 A lack of prior research on the topic under inquiry. Any research endeavor must include a
literature evaluation since it helps identify the depth of prior work on the topic of inquiry.
The researcher's starting point for creating research goals is the findings from the
literature review.

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 CHAPTER 4: RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
4.1 Introduction
This chapter issues out the results. It gives an in-depth analysis of empirical findings in form of
LULC maps and tables.

4.2. Accuracy assessment

Each year, a total of 15 samples were collected as reference data, with the samples being
independent of the training area. For accuracy evaluation, four measures were used: producer's
accuracy, user's accuracy, overall accuracy, and kappa hat. Errors of omission are covered by the
producer's accuracy, while errors of commission are covered by the user's accuracy (Kamusoko,
Gamba, and Murakami, 2013).

Built-up areas typically had class-specific accuracy that ranged from moderate to high, whereas
undeveloped areas typically had class-specific accuracy that was excellent. The built-up class's
producer accuracy varied from 98% to 100% while its user accuracy varied from 98% to 100%.
Particularly for the built-up class in 2022, the high user accuracy and low producer accuracy
point to misclassification difficulties resulting from several causes.

It was discovered that the built-up cover (newly constructed high-density residential areas) and
the barren land/agriculture cover were spectrally confused. This is a result of the two classes' low
object-to-background contrast, which makes them seem spectrally identical to the Landsat 8
sensor.

Table 4.1 show the accuracy assessment results

1984(Landsat 5TM) 2002(Landsat7ETM) 2022(Landsat8)
Class Producer’s user’s Producer’s user’s Producer’s User’s
Built up 94. 100 100 94.9 84.5 100
Unbuilt up 100 99.8 99.8 100 100 98.6
Water bodies 95.9 93.8 100 100 100 100

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 Overall accuracy 99.6 99.8 98.8

4.2.1 Detecting LULCC that occurred throughout (1984, 2002, and 2022)
Figure 4.1 depicts maps of built-up land, unbuilt-up land, and water bodies for 1984, 2002, and
2022. Built-up land and unbuilt-up land took up 31.7 km 2 (5.6%) and 509.4 km2 (93%),
respectively, of the study area in 1984, according to the calculated area of LULC classes, while
water bodies occupied 4.9 km2 (0.9%). In 2002, however, there was remarkable spatial expansion
in the built-up area and a subsequent decrease in undeveloped land. Built-up land increased by
27%, while undeveloped land decreased by 72%. Water bodies have shrunk slightly to 1.6 km 2
(0.3 km2). Built-up land increased to 222.8 km2 (40.8%) of the study area, while unbuilt-up land
decreased to 318 km2 (58.4%). The spatial extent of water increased to 4.5 km2 (0.8%).

Table 4.2 Land use/ cover change

Area 1984 Area 2002 Area 2022
Map unit Km 2
% Km 2
% Km2 %
Built up 31.7 5.8 147.4 27 222.8 40.8
Unbuilt up 509.4 93 397 72 318.8 58.4
Water bodies 4.9 0.9 1.6 0.3 4.5 0.8
Total area 546 100 546 100 546 100

Table 4.2 indicate that built-up area increased from 31.7 km 2 (5.8%) to 222.8 km2 (40.8%)
between the period of 1984 and 2022, at the expense of unbuilt up land which intensely
decreased from 506 km2 (93%) to 318 km2 (58.4%). The rates of LULC varied during the 1984-
2002 and 200-2022 time periods. Between 1984 and 2002, the area that changed from unbuilt-up
to built-up was about 115.7 km2, at a pace of 6.4 km2 per year this indicated in table4.4. While a
low yearly rate of unbuilt to built-up change, which was roughly 76.4 km 2 at an annual growth
rate of 3.8 km2, shows that urban growth was slightly slower between 2002 and 2022. This is
also indicated by figure 4.2 since it is conspicuous that the extension and infill development
occurred within a 15km buffer zone in 2002 and 2022 compared to the period of 1984 and 2002,
where extension and infill took place within a 5-15km buffer zones.

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 Figure 4.1 Land use/ cover maps for 1984, 2002 and 2022
Figure 4.1 depicts changes from the unbuilt to the built state that imply the dispersal of extension
and infill construction. Extension is the term used to describe the expansion of newly constructed
regions within the 1984 urbanized area. An examination of the link between unbuilt to built-up
changes from 1984 to 2002 regarding proximity to the city center disclosed that extension and
infill development transpired throughout all buffer zones. The high yearly growth rate of unbuilt
to built-up changes of almost 115.7 km2 at a rate of 6.4 km2 per year demonstrates the
tremendous urban growth that occurred between 1984 and 2002. In the research area, noticeable

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 change patterns from unbuilt to built-up indicate urban growth inform of extension and infill
development.

There was a slight decrease in unbuilt-up to built-up modifications between 2002 and 2022,
which was roughly 76.4 km2 at a pace of 3.8 km2 per year. Expansion and high-density housing
development took place within buffer zones of 10 to 15 km, according to a LULCC detection
analysis of the change from unbuilt-up to built-up with distance from the city center. The fact
that extension and infill development occurred outside of the city center, particularly in the
northwestern part where the majority of the high suburbs are located, indicates suburbanization.

Figure 4.2 changes that took place in built-up land and unbuilt-up land between (1984 and 2002),
(2002 and 2022)

Table 4.3 shows urban growth rates

Map unit Change area (km2) (%) Change area (km2) (%)
1984-2002 2002-2022
built-up 115.7 10.9 75.4 7.2
unbuilt-up -112.4 -10.6 -78.3 -7.4
water bodies -3.3 -0,3 2.88 0.2

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 The LULC change detection analysis revealed that urban growth was substantial from 1984 to
2002, but slowed between 2002 and 2022. This shift is being driven by demographic changes in
Bulawayo According to macrotrend.com, the inhabitants of the Bulawayo metropolitan province
increased from roughly 447,000 in 1984 to 676,000 in 2002. The requirement for housing surged
due to the rapid population growth brought on by migration from rural areas, which led to an
increase in built-up land.

Infill housing development strategies were introduced into housing development regulations and
plans in response to growing concerns about urban sprawl, expensive services, and lengthy
commutes. The utilization of unoccupied land within already-existing high-income, medium- to
low-density residential communities was given priority by the infill housing development plan.
Due to the much-reduced building costs (approximately 50% lower) on the outskirts of the city
center, low-income high-density development designs focused on the outward expansion (5 to 15
kilometers) rather than infill housing developments. To the northwest are examples of low-
income high-density development schemes (e.g., Magwegwe).

4.2 Prediction of urban growth over the period between 2022 and 2030
Figure 4.3 depicts the outcomes of the 2033 urban growth forecasting process. The results show
that, in terms of directions and intensity rate, the anticipated urban growth pattern is similar to
the actual growth pattern. This is mostly caused by the driving forces that are similar in the
anticipated simulation and the actual state. The northwest suburbs will be the primary focus of
this expansion. Additionally, as cities grow, open space will progressively disappear.

Table 4.4 land use change between 2002 and 2030

Map unit 2022 2022 2030 2030
Actual Actual Simulated Simulated 2022/2030 2022/2030
Area (km2) area (%) area (km2) area (%) change (km 2) change (%)
Built up 222.9 40.8 243.1 44.5 20.35 3.7
Unbuilt up 318.8 58.4 297.5 54.5 -21.3 -3.9
Water bodies 4.5 0.8 5.4 1 0.9 0.2

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 Table 4.5 gives a summary of anticipated changes in land usage. It shows that the area of built-
up land will be increased from 222.8 km2 to 243.1 km2. This growth comes at the expense of
undeveloped land, where all built-up areas will expand as a result of the conversion of
undeveloped land into the built-up area. This increase will be influenced by the population
increase in Bulawayo and, income development. The remaining unbuilt area will shrink from
318.8 km2 to 297.5 km2 between 2022 and 2030 as a result of rapid urban growth's requirement
for more built-up land.

Figure 4.3 Cellular Automata predicted urban growth for 2030

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 4.4 The impacts of LULC change on the environment
LCC denotes a change in some continuous physical elements of the land, such as vegetation-type
soil attributes, whereas LUC relates to a change in how humans utilize or manage a specific
piece of land. (Patel, Verma, and Singh, 2019). This comprises the transformation of the natural
landscape as a result of urbanization; it is important to note that this shift is to blame for several
local and global consequences, such as biodiversity loss, effects on human health, habitat
destruction, as well as the loss of ecosystem services. (Patel, Verma, and Singh, 2019)

Human activities, such as the need for a new community, result in the irreversible loss of natural
and productive land, which causes pronounced changes in weather patterns, temperature, and
precipitation (Sleeter, 2018). Such changes, when aggregated across broad areas, can affect the
Earth's climate by modifying regional and global air circulation, altering the albedo (reflectivity)
of the Earth's surface, and influencing the quantity of CO2 in the atmosphere.

Other sources state that demographic changes, particularly in urban areas, are the primary factor
influencing LUC. Where the majority of the greenery that surrounds cities is constantly being
converted into buildings. The advancement of cities and their infrastructural facilities has had a
massive effect on how water is used, as water is now taken out of streams and extracted from the
ground to supply cities, and as a result, water infiltration has reduced due to the construction of
buildings, roads, and parking lots (Vandas, 2002). Diminished infiltration may result in increased
runoff and flooding.

Aside from that, farmland offers a variety of species with open space and crucial habitats.
Intensive farming could, however, harm the environment For instance, it is well known that
water pollution is a result of agricultural land usage and practices. Both upland and coastal
waters are heavily impacted by agricultural runoff in terms of water contamination, due to the
development of wetlands for grain production and irrigation water diversion, numerous wildlife
species have gone extinct.

Wu (2008) asserts that forests offer a range of ecosystem services: carbon dioxide is absorbed,
precipitation is intercepted, surface runoff is slowed, and soil erosion and flooding are reduced.
When forests are exploited for agriculture or urban development, these vital ecological services
are diminished or lost. For example, human activities like urban development, agriculture, and
others have dramatically altered and fragmented the earth's vegetative cover. This kind of

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 distortion can alter the atmosphere’s concentration of carbon dioxide, which is the main heat-
trapping gas, and it can also change the energy balance on the earth's surface, which can have an
impact on local, regional, and worldwide climate (Marland, 2003).

Wu (2008) claimed that some environmental problems, including water pollution, habitat loss for
wildlife, and air pollution, have been associated with urban expansion. Urban runoff frequently
contains nutrients, sediments, and hazardous chemicals that can drastically change stream flow
and temperature in addition to contributing to water pollution According to research, urban
development's effects on habitat loss, fragmentation, and modification are the primary causes of
biodiversity reduction and species extinction (Czech, Krausman, and Devers 2000).

The majority of land use change is influenced by urban growth in the sense that most people
migrate to cities in pursuit of a better way of life, resulting in urban sprawl. Building
construction also harms the environment as a result of land development. Impermeable surfaces
decrease the soil's capacity to filter runoff, which increases the contamination of nonpoint source
waters. Increased erosion, influences habitat, and affects peak flow and water volume.
Stormwater runoff that is increased could lead to more toxins in residents' drinking and
recreational water sources. Storm runoff from cities and suburbs contains dirt, road oil, fertilizer
nutrients, and a variety of toxic substances, which affect the recharge of groundwater aquifers.

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 CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSION
5.1 Introduction
The chapter contains the study's conclusion and a summary of its findings. The chapter suggests
the local government. The chapter also summarizes the research question from chapter one and
how it was addressed in previous studies. The chapter provides a summary of the study's main
purpose.

5.2 Conclusion
We can get the following conclusion by analyzing the effects of urban growth on LULC that
occurred in Bulawayo throughout 1984, 2002, and 2022.

This study focuses mostly on the investigation of Bulawayo's urban expansion utilizing remote
sensing and GIS techniques. The classification outcomes show that MD is capable of using
Landsat images to generate reasonably accurate LULC change maps. Based on change detection
and the LULC maps for 1984, 2002, and 2022, I discovered that between 1984 and 2002, the
study period, there was tremendous urban expansion (2002-2022). My research showed that infill
and extension development, which are related to population growth and other factors, dominated
urban expansion.

The main factor causing urbanization is the population's fast growth. This issue must be
researched across various dimensions to promote smart growth. According to my findings, the

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 built-up area in 1984 was 31.7 km2, and by 2002, it had grown at least twice as dramatically,
covering 147 km2 (27%) of the total area, while the unbuilt-up area had sharply shrunk by
10.9%. It is observed that urbanization increased by 35% from 1984 to 2022.

Future predictions were made using MOLUSCE. Future urbanization in Bulawayo is predicted to
increase by about 3.7%. Infrastructure, energy use, and the nation's economy may all suffer as a
result of increased urbanization. The urban simulation model (ANN) has demonstrated
technology that is suitable for more than only predicting urban growth; it can also help
specialists comprehend how it functions. The urban simulation model (ANN) is capable of
properly predicting the scale, pattern, and trends of future urban expansion; however, it was less
successful in projecting scattered urbanization that is unconnected from the main urban
agglomeration.

5.3 Recommendations
The report urges urban planners and decision-makers to explore smart growth as a strategy for
the city's future expansion, as it promotes mixed-use development that mixes residential areas
with centers of work and commerce rather than isolating specific districts, allowing more
pedestrians and public transportation as opposed to traffic and pollution.

Additionally, I advise policymakers to favor vertical growth over horizontal growth, as the latter
results in the loss of a sizable portion of undeveloped land. In addition, new urbanism should be
utilized as it is a novel technique that preserves undeveloped land, hence minimizing urban
growth in that it focuses on promoting growth in the inner city rather than the suburbs and avoids
the pollution and landscape devastation that comes with sprawl.

The government needs to develop communities rather than individual homes in the city center
and rejuvenate the downtown area. By increasing tax revenue from formerly underutilized places
and making optimal use of existing infrastructure through infill development, downtown
revitalization promotes community budgetary sustainability and slows urban growth.

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