MT-404

PORT LOGISTIC
MANAGEMENT

Okke Permadhi
Sekolah Tinggi Manajemen Logistik Indonesia
E-mail: permadhigalaxy@ygmail.com
PROJECTING TRAFFIC
DEMAND
 TRAFFIC DEMAND PLANNING
3
1. One of the best ways for successful management of certain port
companies is traffic demand planning.

2. Mismatch between supply and demand leads to a number of problems

3. Higher supply than demand leads to the failure in the utilization of port
infrastructure and suprastructure, and to the lack of cost-effectivenes

4. When the demand for port services exceeds the supply, there comes to
congestion of port facilities, an increase in costs of ships and losses of
time due to waiting.

5. The traffic capacity is not flexible and its construction and development
require substantial financial resources in order to be payable, supply
must be designed in accordance with the anticipated
4 PROJECTION OF CARGOES AND
SHIP CALLS

Proyeksi
Kunjungan
Proyeksi
Kapal
Penetapan Cargo,
Analisis Data Cargo,Kapal
Hinterland Petikemas dan
Petikemas dan
Penumpang
Kapal
Penumpang
5 PREDIKSI LALU LINTAS (1)

Pertanyaan mendasar:
1. Jenis komoditi dan jumlahnya yang akan bergerak
melalui pelabuhan.
2. Bagaimana komoditi-komoditi tersebut akan
dikemas dan diangkut sebagai kargo laut.
3. Pelayanan kapal yang diperlukan.
6 PREDIKSI LALU LINTAS (2)

4. Metoda analisis
5. Skenario pengembangan: alternatif kondisi
yang akan terjadi dan memberikan pengaruh
terhadap prediksi lalu lintas.
6. Data/Statistik
• Sebagai dasar prediksi ke depan.
• Sebagai kontrol terhadap perkiraan yang akan datang, seberapa
jauh menyimpang dari perkembangan aktual.
7 DATA STATISTIK PELABUHAN

1. Total tonnage yg ditangani di pelabuhan

2. Rata-rata waktu putar kapal
3. Rata-rata tonnage bongkar-muat per kapal
4. Volume muatan khusus
5. Kapal dengan peralatan khusus
6. Rata-rata panjang kapal
7. Draugth kapal maksimum saat kedatangan dan
panjang kapal maksimum
8 THE FORECAST HAS BEEN MADE
BASED ON
1. The estimated annual growth rate of the turnover by
types of cargo (general, dry bulk and liquid bulk)

2. By the direction of movement (local traffic, transit)

based on the anticipated rate of gross domestic
product (GDP)
9 TECHNIQUES OF DEMAND
FORECASTING

Experts Market Delphi

Opinion Poll Experiment Method
Method
 FORECASTING - TREND
10 PROJECTION
11 FORECASTING - TREND
PROJECTION (CONT. 2)
Formula:
𝑇 𝑏 𝑏 𝑡 … 𝑡𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑑 𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝑛. ∑ 𝑡. 𝑌 ∑𝑡.∑𝑌
𝑏
𝑛. ∑ 𝑡 ∑𝑡
𝑏 𝑌 𝑏 . 𝑡̅
𝑛 10
 FORECASTING - LINEAR
12 REGRESSION

𝑛 ∑ 𝑥. 𝑦 ∑𝑥.∑𝑦
𝑏
𝑛∑ 𝑥 ∑𝑥

∑𝑦 𝑏∑𝑥
𝑎
𝑛
 FORECASTING - LINEAR REGRESSION
13 (CONT 1)

Traffic in
Year 1000 Ton
(X) (Y)
1 600
2 1550
3 1500
4 1500
5 2400
6 3100
7 2600
8 2900
9 3000
10 4500
11 4000
12 4900
14 FORECASTING - LINEAR
REGRESSION (CONT 2)
 BAROMETRIC FORECASTING TECHNIQUES
15

1. Merits of barometric method : It is an improvement over trend projection method.

2. A basic shortcoming of trend projection is that the method is incapable of

forecasting the magnitude or duration of divergences from trend and is not helpful
for indicating fundamental changes in trend (i.e., turning points). Therefore, simple
trend projection methods are incapable of forecasting the magnitude of cyclical
fluctuations, seasonal variation, and irregular or random influences. To forecast the
magnitude of such deviations from trend, managers often employ the barometric
approach to forecasting.

3. Unlike trend projection methods, barometric approaches seek to incorporate the

effects of changing economic conditions in forecast values. Through the use of
leading, coincident, and lagging indicators, barometric approaches can provide insight
regarding both the direction and magnitude of cyclical turning points and fluctuations
from trend.
16 ECONOMETRIC METHOD

Three basic conditions favor the use of econometric methods:

1. The first one is obvious: good information is needed on causal
relationships. This information can come from subjective sources or from
the analysis of objective data.
2. The second condition favoring econometric methods may not be obvious,
because many econometricians ignore it: econometric methods are
appropriate for large changes (or large differences) in the causal variables.
For small changes, there is little reason to use econometric methods.
3. The third condition, or set of conditions, is that the direction of changes in
the causal variables can be accurately predicted, and that reasonable
estimates can be made of the magnitudes of these changes.
17 DEMAND FORECASTING OF PORT
SERVICES
1. The most realistic value of the future port traffic is
obtained by extrapolation of the linear trend

2. To avoid the consequences of non-compliance of

port supply and demand

3. To create a basis for sizing supply, there is a need

for demand forecasting of port services.
18 METODE PREDIKSI LALU LINTAS

1. Kecenderungan/trend analysis
• Data : Time series, Cross-sectional
• Bentuk : linear, non-linear
• Metoda :
• pertumbuhan rata-rata
• analisis regresi (linear, non-linear)

2. Trip rate analysis:

Berdasarkan tingkat bangkitan lalu lintas dengan
menggunakan variabel tertentu

3. Model kebutuhan transportasi 4-tahap

19 TREND ANALYSIS

1. Metoda Cross-sectional : Perkembangan lalu lintas

mengikuti pertumbuhan GNP/GDP, populasi, atau lainnya.
2. Metoda time series : perkembangan menurut waktu,
misalnya pertumbuhan rata-rata tahunan.
3. Komoditi tertentu mungkin tumbuh secara khusus akibat
kebijakan tertentu (mis. kawasan industri khusus,
pembatasan perdagangan, dll)
4. Mungkin perlu memperhitungkan perpindahan lokasi
produksi/konsumsi.
5. Mungkin ada peralihan teknologi atau rute transportasi (mis.
angkutan curah ke peti kemas, angkutan laut ke darat, dll).
 20 TRIP RATE ANALYSIS

 Arus per komoditi diperkirakan berdasarkan tingkat bangkitan lalu lintas

dengan menggunakan variabel tertentu, misalnya:
• Jumlah populasi
• PDRB, pendapatan
• PDRB sektoral (industri, pertanian, perikanan, dll)
• Jumlah tenaga kerja

 Memperhitungkan:
• Konsumsi lokal
• Surplus produksi : dikirim ke luar
• Defisit produksi : didatangkan dari luar

 Perlu memperhitungkan distribusi terhadap alternatif angkutan yang ada.

 21 MODEL KEBUTUHAN TRANSPORTASI 4-
TAHAP

1. Trip Generation (Bangkitan Perjalanan):

memperkirakan jumlah perjalanan total yang dihasilkan (trip production) oleh
dan tertarik (trip attraction) ke setiap unit wilayah analisis (biasanya disebut
zona).

2. Trip Distribution (Sebaran Perjalanan):

memperkirakan asal-tujuan perjalanan, yaitu distribusi jumlah perjalanan total
zona-zona menurut setiap pasang zona asal-tujuan.

3. Modal Split (Distribusi Perjalanan menurut Moda):

memperkirakan distribusi perjalanan terhadap setiap jenis moda yang tersedia
pada setiap pasang zona asal-tujuan.

4. Trip Assignment (Pembebanan Perjalanan thd Rute):

memperkirakan jumlah perjalanan yang melalui rute-rute yang ada dalam
jaringan transportasi.
 TRAFIK PELABUHAN UMUM YANG
22 DISELENGGARAKAN OLEH UPT DI SEKITAR
PELABUHAN KUALA TANJUNG
23 GRAFIK REALISASI ARUS BARANG DI
DERMAGA UMUM
24 GRAFIK REALISASI ARUS BARANG DI
TERSUS
25 GRAFIK REALISASI KUNJUNGAN
KAPAL DI DERMAGA UMUM
26 GRAFIK REALISASI KUNJUNGAN KAPAL
DI TERSUS