Quantitative Methods for Business_ Ms.

Dang Thi Uyen Thao 1

Please read the following instructions carefully before working on the assignment
• There is one 10-extra-point-worth question in each chapter, so you may get 110 points
at the maximum
• Assignment is due on the following class next week, late submission will be deducted
10 points per day
• Handwriting assignment is required
• Work in groups of two, and individuals may work alone if they wish to do so
• Let yourself struggle with problems for a while before looking up the answer using
other resources. What you turn in should reflect your own understanding of the
assignment but not the capability of copying from a solution manual. A copied answer
is considered plagiarism and is marked zero with no excuse.
• Please attach the information below on the top of the submitted answer paper. The scale
for Contribution is from 1 to 5, in which 1 describes minimum and 5 describes
maximum commitment.

QUANTITATIVE METHODS FOR BUSINESS

Ms. Dang Thi Uyen Thao
INDIVIDUAL/PAIR ASSIGNMENT CHAPTER 2
dd/mm/yy

Full name & ID Contribution

Assignment Tasks and Questions

DECK OF CARDS .
Quantitative Methods for Business_ Ms. Dang Thi Uyen Thao 2

Cards A standard deck of 52 playing cards consists of four suits (hearts, spades, diamonds and
clubs). Spades and clubs are black while hearts and diamonds are red. Each suit contains 13
cards, each of a different rank: an Ace (which in many games functions as both a low card and
a high card), cards numbered 2 through 10, a Jack, a Queen and a King.

Part A: A card is drawn at random from a well shuffled pack of 52 cards.

1. What are the chances of drawing a red card? A seven? A club?
2. What is the probability that the card is neither a spade nor a Jack?
3. A person draws a first card and it is a club. The card is replaced, and the deck is
reshuffled, then he draws a second card. What are the chances of drawing a club or
a red card on the 2nd card?
4. (10 extra points) A person draws a first card and it is a seven. Then he draws a
second card. What are the chances of drawing a seven or a black card on the 2nd
card?
5. A person draws a card and it is a red card. What are the chances that the card is a
King?

Part B: Two cards are drawn at random from a well shuffled pack of 52 cards.
6. What are the chances of drawing the Queen of Hearts first and the Queen of Spades
secondly? The card is replaced, and the deck is reshuffled.
7. What are the chances of drawing the Nine of Clubs first, and followed by a red card
from a standard deck without replacement?

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY AND BAYES THEOREMTHEOREM

NOTICE: 2 approaches should be used to solve all the questions below

1. You have a QM class of Ms. Uyen Thao today, but the morning is cloudy
• Oh no! 50% of all rainy days start off cloudy!
• But cloudy mornings are common (about 40% of days start cloudy)
• And this is a dry month (only 3 of 30 days tend to be rainy, or 10%)
Will you come to the class? What is the chance of rain during the day?

2. The Springfield Kings, a professional basketball team, has won 12 of its last 20 games and
is expected to continue winning at the same percentage rate. The team’s ticket manager is
anxious to attract a large crowd to tomorrow’s game but believes that depends on how well the
Kings perform tonight against the Galveston Comets. He assesses the probability of drawing a
large crowd to be 0.90 should the team win tonight. What is the probability that the team wins
tonight and that there will be a large crowd at tomorrow’s game?

3. A disease has an incidence rate of 0.1% (that is, it afflicts 0.1% of the population). A test
has been devised to detect this disease. The test does not produce false negatives (that is,
anyone who has the disease will test positive for it), but the false positive rate is 5% (that is,
about 5% of people who take the test will test positive, even though they do not have the
disease). Suppose a randomly selected person takes the test and tests positive. What is the
probability that this person actually has the disease?
Quantitative Methods for Business_ Ms. Dang Thi Uyen Thao 3

4. The oasis outpost of Abu Ilan, in the heart of the Negev desert, has a population of 20
Bedouin tribesmen and 20 Farima tribesmen. El Kamin, a nearby oasis, has a population of 32
Bedouins and 8 Farima. A lost Israeli soldier, accidentally separated from his army unit, is
wandering through the desert and arrives at the edge of one of the oases. The soldier has no
idea which oasis he has found, but the first person he spots at a distance is a Bedouin. What is
the probability that he wandered into Abu Ilan? What is the probability that he is in El Kamin?
If the lost Israeli soldier decides to rest for a few minutes before entering the desert oasis he
has just found. Closing his eyes, he dozes off for 15 minutes, wakes, and walks toward the
center of the oasis. The first person he spots this time he again recognizes as a Bedouin. What
is the posterior probability that he is in El Kamin?

_____ THE END _____