Two State Model

Lanjutan
m : mean time farilure rate = MTTF = 1/λ
r : mean time to repair = MTTR = 1/μ
λ : expected failure rate
μ : expected repair rate
F : cycle frequency
T : cycle time  r r f
U   
U = F.O.R  mr T 
 m m f
A   
 mr T 
System and Load Point Indices
Annualized load point indices:
 Basic value
 Maximum values
 Average value
 Bus isolation values
Basic value
 Probability of failure
 Expected frequency of failure
 Expected number of voltage violations
 Expected number of load curtailments
 Expected load curtailed
 Expected energy not supplied
 Expected duration of load curtailments
Maximum Values
 Maximum load curtailed

 Maximum energy curtailed

 Maximum duration of load curtailment

Average Values
 Average load curtailed

 Average energy not supplied

 Average duration of curtailment

Bus Isolation Values
 Expected number of curtailments

 Expected load curtailed

 Expected energy not supplied

 Expected duration of load curtailments

Keterangan
 Bi : unit condition
 p(Bi) : unit condition probability
 F(Bi) : frequency outage condition
 pkj : Probability of the load at bus
K exceeding the maximum
load that can supplied at that
bus during the outage-j
Step -1
 Probability of an outage condition system:
n
 A, Bi  0
Pj   PBi   PBi   
i 1 U , Bi  1
 Frequency of an outage condition system:
, Bi  0
F Bi   
 , Bi  1
n
Fj  Pj  F Bi 
i 1
Step-2
nG
 Plant capacity (MW): CG j  CGi * 1  Bi 
i 1

nLLoad

 Line capacity (MW): CL j   p. f *C

i 1
L Loadi

 Capacity available:
CG j , CG j  CL j
Cj  
CL j , CG j  CL j
Step-3
 Probability of the load at bus K exceeding the
maximum load that can supplied at that bus
during the outage-j: 0, C j  PL
PKj  
1, C j  PL
 Duration in hour of the load curtailment due to
outage-j: Pj
DKj  x8760
Fj
 Load curtailment at bus K:
LKj  PKj PL1  %Loss  C j 
Step-4
 Expected load curtailment:
ELCj  Fj xLKj

 Expected number of load curtailments:

NLCj  Fj xPKj
 Expected energy not supplied:
EENSj  Fj xDKj xLKj
 Expected duration of load curtailment:
EDLCj  Fj xPKj xDKj
Basic value
2N

 Probabilityof failure Qk   Pj PKj N

j 1 2
 Expected frequency of failure Fk   Fj PKj
j 1 2 N

 Expected number of curtailments  F

2 N  j

 Expected load curtailed   LKj Fj

j 1
N
j 1 2
 Expected energy not supplied   LKj Pj x8760
j 1
 Expected duration
2
of load
N

curtailments   Pj x8760
j 1
Radial Configuration

 Generation Data, peakload=180 MW, SL-LDC: 100% - 70% LP

Number Of Capacity Unavaila
Plant λ (f/yr) μ (r/yr)
unit (MW) bility
1 6 40 0,02 3,65 178,85

 Transmission Line Data, Losses= 5MW p.f=0,95

Number Of Capacity Unavailabi
Line λ (f/yr) μ (r/yr)
unit (MW) lity
Radial 2 160 0,0004279 0,5 1168

Perhitungan
Generation System model
Number of Cap. Dep.
Frequency
State Gen. On Available Probability Rate
(occ/yr)
Outage (MW) (occ/yr
1 0 240 0,88584238 21,9 19,399948
2 1 200 0,10847049 197,1 21,379534
3 2 160 0,00553421 372,3 2,060386
4 3 120 0,00015059 547,5 0,082448
5 4 80 0,00000230 722,7 0,001666
6 5 40 0,00000002 897,9 0,000017
7 6 0 0,00000000 1073,1 0,000000
Transmisson System model
Number of Cap. Dep.
Frequency
State Line On Available Probability Rate
(occ/yr)
Outage (MW) (occ/yr
1 0 320 0,99914438 1,0 0,999144
2 1 160 0,00085543 1168,5 0,999574
3 2 0 0,00000018 2336,0 0,000428
Composite (gabungan):
Keadaan, outage L=0; G=0-6
Composite (gabungan):
Keadaan, outage L=1; G=0-6
Composite (gabungan):
Keadaan, outage L=2; G=0-6
 Peluang beban pada bus k,melebihi beban
yg dpt disuplai pada keadaan j,Pkj
Beban flat (industri) Beban campuran
 1, C  BL
1, C  PL  1
pkj C    pkj C   1  C  BL
pkj(C) 0, C  PL pkj(C)
1,0  BL  PL
1,0
 0, C  PL

pkj(C) pkj(C)

C C
BL PL
PL
Available Capasity, MW Available Capasity, MW
State Probability and Frequencies
Number On Cap.
Outage Dep. Rate Frequency
State-j Available Probability P1j
(occ/yr (occ/yr)
G L (MW)
1 - - 240 0,88508444 22,90 20,268434 -
2 - 1 160 0,00075778 1.190,40 0,902061 0,370370
3 - 2 - 0,00000016 2.357,90 0,000382 1,000000
4 1 - 200 0,10837769 198,10 21,469620 -
5 1 1 160 0,00009279 1.365,60 0,126713 0,370370
6 1 2 - 0,00000002 2.533,10 0,000050 1,000000
7 2 - 160 0,00552947 373,30 2,064153 0,370370
8 2 1 160 0,00000473 1.540,80 0,007294 0,370370
9 2 2 - 0,00000000 2.708,30 0,000003 1,000000
10 3 - 120 0,00015046 548,50 0,082528 1,000000
11 3 1 120 0,00000013 1.716,00 0,000221 1,000000
12 3 2 - 0,00000000 2.883,50 0,000000 1,000000
13 4 - 80 0,00000230 723,70 0,001667 1,000000
14 4 1 80 0,00000000 1.891,20 0,000004 1,000000
15 4 2 - 0,00000000 3.058,70 0,000000 1,000000
16 5 - 40 0,00000002 898,90 0,000017 1,000000
17 5 1 40 0,00000000 2.066,40 0,000000 1,000000
18 5 2 - 0,00000000 3.233,90 0,000000 1,000000
19 6 - - 0,00000000 1.074,10 0,000000 1,000000
20 6 1 - 0,00000000 2.241,60 0,000000 1,000000
21 6 2 - 0,00000000 3.409,10 0,000000 1,000000
Basic Value Composite System
Number On
Failure D1j L1j ELC1j EENS1j EDLC1j
State-j Outage NLC1j
(hours) (MW) (MW) (MWh) (hours)
G L Probability Frequency
1 - - - - 382,53 - - - - -
2 - 1 0,00028066 0,334097 7,36 10 9,0206 0,3341 66,38 2,4586
3 - 2 0,00000016 0,000382 3,72 180 0,0688 0,0004 0,26 0,0014
4 1 - - - 44,22 - - - - -
5 1 1 0,00003437 0,046931 6,41 10 1,2671 0,0469 8,13 0,3010
6 1 2 0,00000002 0,000050 3,46 180 0,0091 0,0001 0,03 0,0002
7 2 - 0,00204795 0,764501 23,47 10 20,6415 0,7645 484,38 17,9401
8 2 1 0,00000175 0,002702 5,69 10 0,0729 0,0027 0,41 0,0154
9 2 2 0,00000000 0,000003 3,23 180 0,0005 0,0000 0,00 0,0000
10 3 - 0,00015046 0,082528 15,97 69 5,6945 0,0825 90,95 1,3180
11 3 1 0,00000013 0,000221 5,10 69 0,0153 0,0002 0,08 0,0011
12 3 2 0,00000000 0,000000 3,04 180 0,0000 0,0000 0,00 0,0000
13 4 - 0,00000230 0,001667 12,10 109 0,1817 0,0017 2,20 0,0202
14 4 1 0,00000000 0,000004 4,63 109 0,0004 0,0000 0,00 0,0000
15 4 2 0,00000000 0,000000 2,86 180 0,0000 0,0000 0,00 0,0000
16 5 - 0,00000002 0,000017 9,75 149 0,0025 0,0000 0,02 0,0002
17 5 1 0,00000000 0,000000 4,24 149 0,0000 0,0000 0,00 0,0000
18 5 2 0,00000000 0,000000 2,71 180 0,0000 0,0000 0,00 0,0000
19 6 - 0,00000000 0,000000 8,16 180 0,0000 0,0000 0,00 0,0000
20 6 1 0,00000000 0,000000 3,91 180 0,0000 0,0000 0,00 0,0000
21 6 2 0,00000000 0,000000 2,57 180 0,0000 0,0000 0,00 0,0000
Basic Value: 0,00251783 1,233102 555,13 2.314 36,9749 1,2331 652,84 22,0562
Application,
Network Configuration
 Generation Data, peakload=110 MW, Loss5%
Number Of Capacity Unavaila
Plant λ (f/yr) μ (r/yr)
unit (MW) bility
1 4 20 0,01 1 99
2 2 30 0,05 3 57
Total 6 140 - - -

 Transmission Line Data, fix load, p.f=0,95

Rating on 100
Connected to
Line λ (f/yr) μ (r/yr) MVA base
Bus Bus (MVA) (p.u)
1 1 2 4 8 80 0,8
2 1 3 5 8 100 1,0
3 2 3 3 10 90 0,9
Network Configuration
G1 G2
L1
1 2

L2 L3

Load
Perhitungan
State Probability and Frequencies
Number On Outage Cap.
Dep. Rate Frequency
State Available Probability P1j
(occ/yr (occ/yr)
P1 P2 L1 L2 L3 (MW)
1 - - - - - 140 0,85692158 22,00 18,85227480 -
9 - 1 - - - 110 0,09020227 76,00 6,85537266 1,000000
25 1 - - - - 120 0,03462309 120,00 4,15477131 -
3 - - - 1 - 86 0,00391288 1.112,00 4,35112694 1,000000
33 1 1 - - - 90 0,00364454 174,00 0,63414930 1,000000
4 - - 1 - - 140 0,00313031 1.113,00 3,48403186 -
2 - - - - 1 95 0,00293466 895,00 2,62652334 1,000000
17 - 2 - - - 80 0,00237374 130,00 0,30858672 1,000000
49 2 - - - - 100 0,00052459 218,00 0,11436113 1,000000
11 - 1 - 1 - 86 0,00041188 1.166,00 0,48025502 1,000000
12 - 1 1 - - 110 0,00032951 1.167,00 0,38453352 1,000000
10 - 1 - - 1 95 0,00030891 949,00 0,29315738 1,000000
27 1 - - 1 - 86 0,00015810 1.210,00 0,19129655 1,000000
28 1 - 1 - - 120 0,00012648 1.211,00 0,15316372 -
26 1 - - - 1 95 0,00011857 993,00 0,11774223 1,000000
7 - - 1 1 - 60 0,00001429 2.203,00 0,03148889 1,000000
5 - - - 1 1 - 0,00001340 1.985,00 0,02659957 1,000000
6 - - 1 - 1 80 0,00001072 1.986,00 0,02129038 1,000000
Basic Value Composite System
Number On Outage Failure D1j L1j EENS1j EDLC1j
State-j ELC1j (MW) NLC1j
(hours) (MW) (MWh) (hours)
P1 P2 L1 L2 L3 Probability Frequency
1 - - - - - - - 398,18 - - - - -
9 - 1 - - - 0,09020227 6,855373 115,26 5 34,2769 6,8554 3.950,86 790,1719
25 1 - - - - - - 73,00 - - - - -
3 - - - 1 - 0,00391288 4,351127 7,88 29 126,1827 4,3511 994,03 34,2769
33 1 1 - - - 0,00364454 0,634149 50,34 25 15,8537 0,6341 798,15 31,9261
4 - - 1 - - - - 7,87 - - - - -
2 - - - - 1 0,00293466 2,626523 9,79 20 52,5305 2,6265 514,15 25,7076
17 - 2 - - - 0,00237374 0,308587 67,38 35 10,8005 0,3086 727,79 20,7940
49 2 - - - - 0,00052459 0,114361 40,18 15 1,7154 0,1144 68,93 4,5954
11 - 1 - 1 - 0,00041188 0,480255 7,51 29 13,9274 0,4803 104,63 3,6081
12 - 1 1 - - 0,00032951 0,384534 7,51 5 1,9227 0,3845 14,43 2,8865
10 - 1 - - 1 0,00030891 0,293157 9,23 20 5,8631 0,2932 54,12 2,7061
27 1 - - 1 - 0,00015810 0,191297 7,24 29 5,5476 0,1913 40,16 1,3849
28 1 - 1 - - - - 7,23 - - - - -
26 1 - - - 1 0,00011857 0,117742 8,82 20 2,3548 0,1177 20,77 1,0387
7 - - 1 1 - 0,00001429 0,031489 3,98 55 1,7319 0,0315 6,89 0,1252
5 - - - 1 1 0,00001340 0,026600 4,41 110 2,9260 0,0266 12,91 0,1174
6 - - 1 - 1 0,00001072 0,021290 4,41 35 0,7452 0,0213 3,29 0,0939
Basic Value: 0,10519854 16,580709 1.493,77 8.624 282,1659 16,5807 7.406,21 921,5392