ZOE COVID Study

Daily COVID Infections Report

07 July 2021

Analysis by ZOE and King's College London

covid.joinzoe.com
Contents
• 1. Incidence estimates
◦ 1.1. Incidence map and headline figures
◦ 1.2. Daily new cases in the UK by vaccination status
◦ 1.3. Daily new cases in the UK and England
◦ 1.4. Daily incidence rates by nation and administrative region
• 2. Prevalence estimates
◦ 2.1. Prevalence map and headline figures
◦ 2.2. Prevalence rates by sociodemographic characteristics
◦ 2.3. Daily active cases by nation and administrative region
◦ 2.4. Daily prevalence rates by nation and administrative region
◦ 2.5. Daily prevalence rates by age group
• 4. Local authorities' watch list
• 5. Raw figures
◦ 5.1. Number of users logging feeling well/unwell
◦ 5.3. Newly sick users by day (% of active users)
◦ 5.4. Positive test results by day (% of invited test takers)
◦ 5.5. Location of positive PCR tests results
• 6. Changelog
 Incidence estimates
(based on 2 weeks up to 03 July 2021)
Daily new cases of symptomatic COVID
We estimate there have been 33723 daily new cases of symptomatic COVID in the UK on
average over the two weeks up to 03 July 2021. This is based on the number of newly
symptomatic app users per day, and the proportion of these who give positive swab
tests.

Daily new cases of COVID per 100,000 (03 July 2021) [1]

Daily new cases per 100,000 R

England 41 - 50 1.1 (1.0 - 1.3)
Scotland 61 - 122 1.0 (1.0 - 1.1)
Wales 19 - 49 1.2 (1.1 - 1.4)
South East 22 - 37 1.2 (1.0 - 1.4)
London 50 - 78 1.2 (1.0 - 1.3)
East of England 25 - 48 1.2 (1.1 - 1.4)
South West 24 - 47 1.0 (0.9 - 1.2)
North West 52 - 86 1.0 (0.9 - 1.1)
Yorkshire and The Humber 40 - 78 1.2 (1.0 - 1.4)
East Midlands 27 - 62 1.2 (1.0 - 1.4)
West Midlands 34 - 71 1.0 (0.9 - 1.2)
North East 60 - 124 1.6 (1.2 - 2.1)
Northern Ireland 58 - 276 3.6 (2.0 - 5.8)

[1] Please refer to the publication by Varsavsky at al. (2020) for details on how R values are calculated
Daily new cases of COVID in UK by vaccination status
Daily new cases of COVID in UK and England
Daily incidence rates by nation and administrative region
Prevalence estimates
(up to 06 July 2021)
Daily active cases of symptomatic COVID
The COVID active cases (prevalence) or Symptomatic COVID estimate is based on the
most recent report for each contributor that logged during the previous 7 days.

Estimated rate of people with Symptomatic COVID

Prevalence rates by sociodemographic characteristics
Prevalence rates by nation and administrative region

Rates (cases per 100,000

Cases Rates (1 in X people)
people)

East Midlands 25548 537 1 in 186

East of England 22437 366 1 in 273
London 64031 723 1 in 138
North East 23951 909 1 in 110
North West 67401 932 1 in 107
(*) Northern Ireland 13637 731 1 in 137
Scotland 65235 1211 1 in 83
South East 29232 323 1 in 309
South West 24930 451 1 in 222
Wales 11023 355 1 in 282
West Midlands 35849 613 1 in 163
Yorkshire and The Humber 30346 559 1 in 179
TOTAL 413619 628 1 in 159
(*) The number of respondents in Northern Ireland is low to generate a good estimate.

Prevalence rates by socioeconomic status (IMD)

Rates (cases per 100,000

Cases Rates (1 in X people)
people)
LOW (1st - 3rd decile ) 151290 760 1 in 132
MEDIUM (4th - 6th decile) 128120 639 1 in 157
HIGH (7th - 10th decile) 134209 519 1 in 193
TOTAL 413619 628 1 in 159
Prevalence rates by age group

Rates (cases per 100,000

Cases Rates (1 in X people)
people)
Age 0 - 9 26538 330 1 in 303
Age 10 - 19 101936 1356 1 in 74
Age 20 - 29 143141 1642 1 in 61
Age 30 - 39 63432 718 1 in 139
Age 40 - 49 43318 510 1 in 196
Age 50 - 59 24963 278 1 in 359
Age 60 - 69 6846 97 1 in 1032
Age 70 - 79 2585 47 1 in 2121
Age 80 - 89 860 32 1 in 3139
TOTAL 413619 628 1 in 159
Daily active cases by nation and administrative region
Last 3 months

Last month
Daily prevalence rates by nation and administrative region
Last 3 months

Last month
Daily prevalence rates by age group
Last 3 months

Last month
Local Authorities’ Watch list for Active Cases of COVID-19
The following are UTLA regions with the highest estimates of prevalence rates averaged
over the past week. Note that the local authorities' watchlist is intended to be an early
indication system of areas where cases might be rising, but local authority-level
prevalence estimates might be volatile due to the limited amount of responders and
positive cases in the area.
Rates & 95% CI
Last Week # of App
(cases per 100,000
Trend Users
people)
region UTLA region
East Midlands Nottingham
● 1132 (737 - 1736) 1798

London Tower Hamlets

● 1166 (803 - 1692) 2315

North West Bury

● 1725 (1208 - 2456) 1721

Liverpool
● 1098 (781 - 1542) 2962

Manchester
● 1413 (1065 - 1871) 3360

Oldham
▼ 1272 (761 - 2118) 1113

St. Helens
▲ 1128 (655 - 1933) 1122

Trafford
● 1066 (758 - 1496) 3058

Wigan
▲ 1468 (998 - 2154) 1721

Scotland Aberdeen City

▲ 1611 (1121 - 2310) 1775

Angus
● 1504 (908 - 2482) 972

City of Edinburgh
▼ 1514 (1273 - 1801) 8278

Dumfries and Galloway

● 1236 (738 - 2064) 1132

Dundee City
● 1788 (1142 - 2789) 1039

East Lothian
● 1711 (1169 - 2498) 1511

East Renfrewshire
▼ 1514 (954 - 2394) 1159

Glasgow City
▼ 1685 (1317 - 2152) 3703

North Ayrshire
▲ 1223 (651 - 2285) 760

North Lanarkshire
▼ 1363 (880 - 2107) 1432

Perth and Kinross

● 1464 (1000 - 2138) 1771
 Rates & 95% CI
Last Week # of App
(cases per 100,000
Trend Users
people)
region UTLA region
Renfrewshire
● 1311 (817 - 2097) 1276

Scottish Borders
● 1174 (712 - 1929) 1273

South Lanarkshire
● 1121 (749 - 1676) 2059

Stirling
▲ 1199 (733 - 1955) 1288

West Midlands Wolverhampton

● 1358 (793 - 2319) 943

▲ implies an increase in prevalence in the past week

● implies that prevalence has been fairly constant in the past week
▼ implies a decrease in prevalence in the past week
 Raw Figures
(up to 06 July 2021)
Number of users logging feeling well/unwell
This section reports raw data by day, with no temporal averaging or rebalancing/
extrapolation to the UK population.
# users who logged # users who logged % users who logged
feeling well feeling unwell feeling unwell

East Midlands 31611 1118 3.42 %

East of England 58877 2072 3.40 %
London 62279 3031 4.64 %
North East 14652 681 4.44 %
North West 41265 1594 3.72 %
Northern Ireland 2729 97 3.43 %
Scotland 28860 1097 3.66 %
South East 108943 3741 3.32 %
South West 59584 2130 3.45 %
Wales 24970 843 3.27 %
West Midlands 31870 1187 3.59 %
Yorkshire and The Humber 32898 1310 3.83 %
TOTAL 498538 18901 3.65 %
Newly sick users by day (% of active users)
Active users are those who have been logging regularly in the past 10 days. Newly sick
users are active users who haven't reported any symptoms for at least 9 days before
reporting one of the following symptoms:

Persistent cough, Shortness of breath, Fever, Fatigue, Skipped meals, Hoarse voice, Sore
throat, Delirium, Chest pain, Abdominal pain, Diarrhoea, Headache, Unusual muscle pains,
Loss of smell, Chills or shivers, Eye soreness, Nausea, Dizzy light headed, Red welts on
face or lips, Blisters on feet or any other symptom that makes them feel unwell

Positive test results by day (% of invited test takers)

Location of positive PCR tests results
Changelog
• [...]
• 2021-05-12: Changed methodology to adjust for vaccination status (see blog post)
• 2021-05-26: Updated infection report format and included contents and changelog
pages
• 2021-06-08: Incidence figures are now smoothed over a 7-day rolling window
• 2021-06-09: Included UK incidence trend by vaccination status
• 2021-06-10: Fixed bug in the local authorities' watch list which prevented authorities
with rates above 1000 per 100k to be displayed.
• 2021-06-17: Changes in the local authorities' watch list: Included confidence
intervals around the prevalence estimate. Reformatted the table. Extra paragraph
explaining that the watchlist is an early indication system.