ZOE COVID Study

Daily COVID Infections Report

09 November 2021

Analysis by ZOE and King's College London

covid.joinzoe.com
Contents
• 1. Incidence estimates
◦ 1.1. Incidence map and headline figures
◦ 1.2. Daily new cases in the UK by vaccination status
◦ 1.3. Daily new cases in England
◦ 1.4. Daily incidence rates by nation and administrative region
◦ 1.5. Daily new cases of people living with Long Covid
• 2. Prevalence estimates
◦ 2.1. Prevalence map and headline figures
◦ 2.2. Prevalence rates by sociodemographic characteristics
◦ 2.3. Daily active cases by nation and administrative region
◦ 2.4. Daily prevalence rates by nation and administrative region
◦ 2.5. Daily prevalence rates by age group
• 4. Local authorities' watch list
• 5. Raw figures
◦ 5.1. Number of users logging feeling well/unwell
◦ 5.2. Location of positive PCR tests results
• 6. Changelog
 Incidence estimates
(based on 2 weeks up to 05 November 2021)
Daily new cases of symptomatic COVID
We estimate there have been 75204 daily new cases of symptomatic COVID in the UK on
average over the two weeks up to 05 November 2021. This is based on the number of
newly symptomatic app users per day, and the proportion of these who give positive
swab tests.

Daily new cases of COVID per 100,000 (05 November 2021) [1]

Daily new cases per 100,000 R

East Midlands 93 - 126 0.9 (0.8 - 1.0)
East of England 108 - 133 1.0 (0.9 - 1.0)
England 99 - 126 0.9 (0.8 - 1.0)
London 75 - 96 0.9 (0.8 - 1.0)
North East 127 - 184 1.0 (1.0 - 1.1)
North West 103 - 133 0.9 (0.8 - 1.0)
Northern Ireland 102 - 237 1.1 (1.0 - 1.3)
Scotland 73 - 103 1.0 (0.9 - 1.0)
South East 102 - 120 0.9 (0.8 - 1.0)
South West 109 - 133 0.9 (0.7 - 1.0)
Wales 124 - 167 0.9 (0.8 - 1.0)
West Midlands 91 - 123 0.9 (0.8 - 1.0)
Yorkshire and The Humber 107 - 141 0.9 (0.8 - 1.0)
UK 98 - 130 0.9 (0.9 - 1.0)

[1] Please refer to the publication by Varsavsky at al. (2020) for details on how R values are calculated
Daily new cases in the UK by vaccination status

Daily new cases in England

Daily incidence rates by nation and administrative region
Daily new cases of people living with Long Covid
This subsection includes estimates on new daily cases of people living with Long Covid.
This estimate refers to the number of people in the UK who fell ill on a specific day and
are predicted to have COVID-like symptoms for more than 12 weeks [2].

[2] Please refer to the publication by Thompson at al. (2021) for details on how long covid rates in the population are modelled
Prevalence estimates
(up to 08 November 2021)
Daily active cases of symptomatic COVID
The COVID active cases (prevalence) or Symptomatic COVID estimate is based on the
most recent report for each contributor that logged during the previous 7 days.

Average estimated rate of people with Symptomatic COVID over the last week
Prevalence rates by sociodemographic characteristics
Prevalence rates by nation and administrative region

Rates (cases per 100,000

Cases Rates (1 in X people)
people)

East Midlands 70954 1490 1 in 67

East of England 108399 1767 1 in 57
London 119992 1355 1 in 74
North East 52703 2000 1 in 50
North West 134363 1858 1 in 54
(*) Northern Ireland 36040 1931 1 in 52
Scotland 63912 1186 1 in 84
South East 159330 1763 1 in 57
South West 112676 2037 1 in 49
Wales 68217 2194 1 in 46
West Midlands 114762 1962 1 in 51
Yorkshire and The Humber 112811 2077 1 in 48
England 985991 1778 1 in 56
TOTAL 1154159 1753 1 in 57
(*) The number of respondents in Northern Ireland is low to generate a good estimate.

Prevalence rates by socioeconomic status (IMD)

Rates (cases per 100,000

Cases Rates (1 in X people)
people)
LOW (1st - 3rd decile ) 415509 2088 1 in 48
MEDIUM (4th - 6th decile) 304544 1518 1 in 66
HIGH (7th - 10th decile) 434107 1678 1 in 60
TOTAL 1154159 1753 1 in 57
Prevalence rates by age group

Rates (cases per 100,000

Cases Rates (1 in X people)
people)
Age 0 - 9 167843 2085 1 in 48
Age 10 - 19 175392 2333 1 in 43
Age 20 - 29 167575 1922 1 in 52
Age 30 - 39 232964 2637 1 in 38
Age 40 - 49 218436 2571 1 in 39
Age 50 - 59 115542 1289 1 in 78
Age 60 - 69 55406 784 1 in 127
Age 70 - 79 19156 349 1 in 286
Age 80 - 89 1845 68 1 in 1463
TOTAL 1154159 1753 1 in 57
Daily active cases by nation and administrative region
Last 3 months

Last month
Daily prevalence rates by nation and administrative region
Last 3 months

Last month
Daily prevalence rates by age group
Last 3 months

Last month
Local Authorities’ Watch list for Active Cases of COVID-19
The following are UTLA regions with the highest estimates of prevalence rates averaged
over the past week. Note that the local authorities' watchlist is intended to be an early
indication system of areas where cases might be rising, but local authority-level
prevalence estimates might be volatile due to the limited amount of responders and
positive cases in the area.
Rates & 95% CI
Last Week # of App
(cases per 100,000
Trend Users
people)
region UTLA region
East Midlands Rutland
● 2938 (1958 - 4387) 768

East of England Peterborough

▲ 2765 (1999 - 3812) 1285

North East County Durham

▲ 2615 (2129 - 3209) 3385

Darlington
▲ 3692 (2633 - 5153) 879

Sunderland
▲ 2993 (2234 - 3997) 1460

North West Bury

▲ 2738 (1997 - 3742) 1372

Cheshire East
▼ 2458 (2077 - 2908) 5360

Wirral
● 3158 (2597 - 3836) 3088

South East Buckinghamshire

▲ 2691 (2396 - 3020) 10388

East Sussex
▲ 2660 (2343 - 3018) 8756

South West Bath and North East

Somerset
● 2690 (2218 - 3260) 3732

Swindon
▲ 4011 (3227 - 4977) 1949

Wales Caerphilly
● 4367 (3394 - 5603) 1330

Cardiff
▲ 2851 (2397 - 3388) 4362

Gwynedd
▼ 2515 (1776 - 3550) 1228

Powys
▲ 3308 (2586 - 4224) 1855

Rhondda Cynon Taf

▲ 3516 (2763 - 4465) 1820

Torfaen
▼ 3072 (2132 - 4409) 906

Wrexham
● 3220 (2387 - 4330) 1291

West Midlands Birmingham

▲ 2837 (2403 - 3347) 4780
 Rates & 95% CI
Last Week # of App
(cases per 100,000
Trend Users
people)
region UTLA region
Stoke-on-Trent
▲ 5123 (3803 - 6868) 807

Telford and Wrekin

▲ 4490 (3406 - 5898) 1076

Yorkshire and The Humber Bradford

▼ 3091 (2550 - 3743) 3256

Kingston upon Hull, City of

● 3068 (2075 - 4514) 792

North Lincolnshire
▲ 3116 (2177 - 4440) 929

▲ implies an increase in prevalence in the past week

● implies that prevalence has been fairly constant in the past week
▼ implies a decrease in prevalence in the past week
 Raw Figures
(up to 08 November 2021)
Number of users logging feeling well/unwell
This section reports raw data by day, with no temporal averaging or rebalancing/
extrapolation to the UK population.
# users who logged # users who logged % users who logged
feeling well feeling unwell feeling unwell

East Midlands 25202 1463 5.49 %

East of England 46724 2779 5.61 %
London 47792 3106 6.10 %
North East 11158 670 5.66 %
North West 31933 1956 5.77 %
Northern Ireland 2360 181 7.12 %
Scotland 23813 1540 6.07 %
South East 85973 4927 5.42 %
South West 48303 2980 5.81 %
Wales 20806 1214 5.51 %
West Midlands 25644 1490 5.49 %
Yorkshire and The Humber 25781 1715 6.24 %
TOTAL 395489 24021 5.73 %
Location of positive PCR tests results
Changelog
• [...]
• 2021-05-12: Changed methodology to adjust for vaccination status (see blog post)
• 2021-05-26: Updated infection report format and included contents and changelog
pages
• 2021-06-08: Incidence figures are now smoothed over a 7-day rolling window
• 2021-06-09: Included UK incidence trend by vaccination status
• 2021-06-10: Fixed bug in the local authorities' watch list which prevented authorities
with rates above 1000 per 100k to be displayed.
• 2021-06-17: Changes in the local authorities' watch list: Included confidence
intervals around the prevalence estimate. Reformatted the table. Extra paragraph
explaining that the watchlist is an early indication system.
• 2021-07-16: Removed incidence graph by vaccination status from the report as
there are very few unvaccinated users in the infection survey, the Confidence
Intervals are very wide and the trend for unvaccinated people is no longer
representative.
• 2021-07-21: Released the latest version of incidence. This new estimate adjusts for
the decreasing number of unvaccinated users in our initial cohort by relaxing the
inclusion criteria of newly sick and incorporating LFTs. An age weighting was also
employed to have a reliable representation of the UK population in our estimates
over all age segments. Incidence figures broken down by vaccination status were
also rolled out. We have written a comprehensive blog on this to help explain this
change further, read more here.
• 2021-07-29: Replaced absolute incidence figures by vaccination status with
incidence rates.
• 2021-08-26: Changed the incidence by vaccination status plot to show estimates
only on the whole and the fully vaccinated populations. Added a plot depicting daily
estimates of Long Covid incidence.
• 2021-09-08: Changed the incidence plot for England to show the rate of new daily
cases rather than the absolute figure.
• 2021-09-14: Added a plot on the daily new cases in England.
• 2021-09-23: Changed the prevalence map and the hotspot table to use 14-days
smoothed prevalence estimates.
• 2021-10-07: Released the latest version of incidence which accounts for the
diminishing number of unvaccinated users across age groups. Read more here.
• 2021-10-14: Fixed a minor bug affecting population figures across vaccination
status.