ZOE COVID Study

Daily COVID Infections Report

09 October 2021

Analysis by ZOE and King's College London

covid.joinzoe.com
Contents
• 1. Incidence estimates
◦ 1.1. Incidence map and headline figures
◦ 1.2. Daily new cases in the UK by vaccination status
◦ 1.3. Daily new cases in England
◦ 1.4. Daily incidence rates by nation and administrative region
◦ 1.5. Daily new cases of Long Covid sufferers
• 2. Prevalence estimates
◦ 2.1. Prevalence map and headline figures
◦ 2.2. Prevalence rates by sociodemographic characteristics
◦ 2.3. Daily active cases by nation and administrative region
◦ 2.4. Daily prevalence rates by nation and administrative region
◦ 2.5. Daily prevalence rates by age group
• 4. Local authorities' watch list
• 5. Raw figures
◦ 5.1. Number of users logging feeling well/unwell
◦ 5.2. Location of positive PCR tests results
• 6. Changelog
 Incidence estimates
(based on 2 weeks up to 05 October 2021)
Daily new cases of symptomatic COVID
We estimate there have been 70105 daily new cases of symptomatic COVID in the UK on
average over the two weeks up to 05 October 2021. This is based on the number of newly
symptomatic app users per day, and the proportion of these who give positive swab
tests.

Daily new cases of COVID per 100,000 (05 October 2021) [1]

Daily new cases per 100,000 R

East Midlands 111 - 148 1.1 (1.0 - 1.1)
East of England 89 - 114 1.1 (1.0 - 1.2)
England 94 - 122 1.1 (1.0 - 1.1)
London 81 - 104 1.1 (1.0 - 1.2)
North East 89 - 143 1.0 (1.0 - 1.1)
North West 108 - 141 1.1 (1.0 - 1.1)
Northern Ireland 41 - 144 0.8 (0.6 - 1.0)
Scotland 62 - 91 0.9 (0.8 - 1.0)
South East 84 - 101 1.1 (1.0 - 1.2)
South West 78 - 100 1.1 (1.0 - 1.2)
Wales 115 - 161 1.0 (0.9 - 1.1)
West Midlands 108 - 145 1.1 (1.0 - 1.2)
Yorkshire and The Humber 103 - 139 1.0 (1.0 - 1.1)
UK 90 - 122 1.1 (1.0 - 1.1)

[1] Please refer to the publication by Varsavsky at al. (2020) for details on how R values are calculated
Daily new cases in the UK by vaccination status

Daily new cases in England

Daily incidence rates by nation and administrative region
Daily new cases of Long Covid sufferers
This subsection includes estimates on new daily long covid sufferers. This estimate
refers to the number of people in the UK who fell ill on a specific day and are predicted to
have COVID-like symptoms for more than 12 weeks [2].

[2] Please refer to the publication by Thompson at al. (2021) for details on how long covid rates in the population are modelled
Prevalence estimates
(up to 08 October 2021)
Daily active cases of symptomatic COVID
The COVID active cases (prevalence) or Symptomatic COVID estimate is based on the
most recent report for each contributor that logged during the previous 7 days.

Average estimated rate of people with Symptomatic COVID over the last week
Prevalence rates by sociodemographic characteristics
Prevalence rates by nation and administrative region

Rates (cases per 100,000

Cases Rates (1 in X people)
people)

East Midlands 81145 1704 1 in 59

East of England 78364 1277 1 in 78
London 106441 1202 1 in 83
North East 41247 1565 1 in 64
North West 122796 1698 1 in 59
(*) Northern Ireland 24483 1312 1 in 76
Scotland 62797 1166 1 in 86
South East 106153 1175 1 in 85
South West 64747 1170 1 in 85
Wales 59983 1929 1 in 52
West Midlands 92217 1577 1 in 63
Yorkshire and The Humber 93518 1721 1 in 58
England 786628 1418 1 in 71
TOTAL 933891 1419 1 in 70
(*) The number of respondents in Northern Ireland is low to generate a good estimate.

Prevalence rates by socioeconomic status (IMD)

Rates (cases per 100,000

Cases Rates (1 in X people)
people)
LOW (1st - 3rd decile ) 288978 1452 1 in 69
MEDIUM (4th - 6th decile) 290371 1448 1 in 69
HIGH (7th - 10th decile) 354542 1370 1 in 73
TOTAL 933891 1419 1 in 70
Prevalence rates by age group

Rates (cases per 100,000

Cases Rates (1 in X people)
people)
Age 0 - 9 154047 1913 1 in 52
Age 10 - 19 264547 3519 1 in 28
Age 20 - 29 81079 930 1 in 108
Age 30 - 39 147608 1671 1 in 60
Age 40 - 49 159078 1872 1 in 53
Age 50 - 59 74192 828 1 in 121
Age 60 - 69 29814 422 1 in 237
Age 70 - 79 15954 291 1 in 344
Age 80 - 89 7572 280 1 in 357
TOTAL 933891 1419 1 in 70
Daily active cases by nation and administrative region
Last 3 months

Last month
Daily prevalence rates by nation and administrative region
Last 3 months

Last month
Daily prevalence rates by age group
Last 3 months

Last month
Local Authorities’ Watch list for Active Cases of COVID-19
The following are UTLA regions with the highest estimates of prevalence rates averaged
over the past week. Note that the local authorities' watchlist is intended to be an early
indication system of areas where cases might be rising, but local authority-level
prevalence estimates might be volatile due to the limited amount of responders and
positive cases in the area.
Rates & 95% CI
Last Week # of App
(cases per 100,000
Trend Users
people)
region UTLA region
East Midlands Northamptonshire
▲ 1999 (1707 - 2340) 7554

East of England Peterborough

▲ 2961 (2178 - 4014) 1335

London Brent
▲ 1975 (1365 - 2851) 1389

Harrow
▲ 2986 (2294 - 3879) 1796

Hounslow
▲ 2383 (1803 - 3144) 2020

Westminster
▲ 2302 (1692 - 3126) 1715

North East Northumberland

▲ 3397 (2851 - 4042) 3577

North West Cheshire East

● 2065 (1721 - 2476) 5480

Tameside
▲ 2817 (1956 - 4042) 993

Trafford
▲ 2441 (1904 - 3125) 2486

Northern Ireland Belfast

▲ 3503 (2471 - 4944) 869

Scotland Dundee City

▲ 4138 (3009 - 5666) 880

South East Isle of Wight

▲ 2306 (1682 - 3156) 1628

Wales Cardiff
▲ 2333 (1931 - 2816) 4498

Carmarthenshire
▲ 2547 (1938 - 3342) 1965

Denbighshire
▲ 2500 (1728 - 3602) 1097

Flintshire
▲ 2687 (2056 - 3506) 1941

Neath Port Talbot

▼ 2538 (1739 - 3689) 1029

Newport
▼ 2095 (1423 - 3075) 1193

Vale of Glamorgan
▲ 3335 (2666 - 4166) 2224
 Rates & 95% CI
Last Week # of App
(cases per 100,000
Trend Users
people)
region UTLA region
West Midlands Solihull
▲ 2383 (1835 - 3088) 2309

Telford and Wrekin

▲ 2102 (1407 - 3128) 1105

Yorkshire and The Humber Bradford

● 3112 (2575 - 3757) 3342

Leeds
▲ 2146 (1827 - 2520) 6759

North Lincolnshire
▲ 2254 (1492 - 3392) 972

▲ implies an increase in prevalence in the past week

● implies that prevalence has been fairly constant in the past week
▼ implies a decrease in prevalence in the past week
 Raw Figures
(up to 08 October 2021)
Number of users logging feeling well/unwell
This section reports raw data by day, with no temporal averaging or rebalancing/
extrapolation to the UK population.
# users who logged # users who logged % users who logged
feeling well feeling unwell feeling unwell

East Midlands 25129 1507 5.66 %

East of England 46463 2542 5.19 %
London 48064 3229 6.30 %
North East 10994 630 5.42 %
North West 31759 2015 5.97 %
Northern Ireland 2379 147 5.82 %
Scotland 24406 1305 5.08 %
South East 85182 4778 5.31 %
South West 47717 2817 5.57 %
Wales 20777 1226 5.57 %
West Midlands 25167 1600 5.98 %
Yorkshire and The Humber 25735 1633 5.97 %
TOTAL 393772 23429 5.62 %
Location of positive PCR tests results
Changelog
• [...]
• 2021-05-12: Changed methodology to adjust for vaccination status (see blog post)
• 2021-05-26: Updated infection report format and included contents and changelog
pages
• 2021-06-08: Incidence figures are now smoothed over a 7-day rolling window
• 2021-06-09: Included UK incidence trend by vaccination status
• 2021-06-10: Fixed bug in the local authorities' watch list which prevented authorities
with rates above 1000 per 100k to be displayed.
• 2021-06-17: Changes in the local authorities' watch list: Included confidence
intervals around the prevalence estimate. Reformatted the table. Extra paragraph
explaining that the watchlist is an early indication system.
• 2021-07-16: Removed incidence graph by vaccination status from the report as
there are very few unvaccinated users in the infection survey, the Confidence
Intervals are very wide and the trend for unvaccinated people is no longer
representative.
• 2021-07-21: Released the latest version of incidence. This new estimate adjusts for
the decreasing number of unvaccinated users in our initial cohort by relaxing the
inclusion criteria of newly sick and incorporating LFTs. An age weighting was also
employed to have a reliable representation of the UK population in our estimates
over all age segments. Incidence figures broken down by vaccination status were
also rolled out. We have written a comprehensive blog on this to help explain this
change further, read more here.
• 2021-07-29: Replaced absolute incidence figures by vaccination status with
incidence rates.
• 2021-08-26: Changed the incidence by vaccination status plot to show estimates
only on the whole and the fully vaccinated populations. Added a plot depicting daily
estimates of Long Covid incidence.
• 2021-09-08: Changed the incidence plot for England to show the rate of new daily
cases rather than the absolute figure.
• 2021-09-14: Added a plot on the daily new cases in England.
• 2021-09-23: Changed the prevalence map and the hotspot table to use 14-days
smoothed prevalence estimates.
• 2021-10-07: Released the latest version of incidence which accounts for the
diminishing number of unvaccinated users across age groups. Read more here.