ACCESS Forecast Sensitivity to

Observations and Observing

Network Assessments
Chris Tingwell
Bureau of Meteorology
Thankyou to my co-authors

Sergei Soldatenko
Boris Kelly-Gerreyn
Fiona Smith
Peter Steinle

Acknowledgement:
The Met Office
FSOI in Bureau operational NWP system ("ACCESS")
ACCESS-G: global 25 km N512/L70 (OPS/4DVar/UM: equiv. Met Office PS32)
Since September 2015, 24 hour Forecast Sensitivity to Observations impacts have been calculated
following each six-hourly ACCESS-G assimilation-forecast cycle.
Met Office FSO suite (Lorenc and Marriott 2014).
Moist energy error norm and sensitivities calculated twice (SFC – 150 hPa):
1) for whole globe and 2) for Australian verification region (below right, in red).

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AMDAR FSO impacts from a regional airline
For one year the Bureau received and assimilated AMDAR observations from Air Nuigini (ANG). This
was a comparison of the FSO Impact from the ANG data and AMDAR received from the Australian
carrier, with a view to informing a Bureau decision to purchase ongoing ANG AMDAR observations.

Period: Sept 11 2018 - Aug 1 2019 (duration of PGxxxx observations in G2)

Total impact Impact per

Number of
Aircraft identifier during period observation
observations
(J/kg) (micro-J/kg)
ALL -196.6 94863788 -2.1
PGxxxx (Air Nuigini) -8.7 91795 -95.2
AUxxxx -72.6 1390730 -52.2

FSOI calculated with the AUS region error norm

 Breakdown of impacts by aircraft type/route
Total
impact Impact per
Aircraft Number of
during observation
identifier obs
period (micro-J/kg)
(J/kg)
PG0001 -0.30 1679 -177.2
PG0002 -1.33 12392 -107.3
PG0003 -0.66 14469 -45.5
PG0004 -1.63 10943 -148.6
PG0005 -0.04 399 -92.1
PG0006 -1.62 16779 -96.6
PG0007 -0.98 11551 -85.1
PG0008 -0.98 12675 -77.0
PG0009 -1.22 10908 -111.5
Aggregated the AUxxxx FSO impacts aggregated into 2x2 degree boxes to produce a spatial map of
impact/observation for the same period in which the Bureau received the Air Nuigini data. Yellow > red >
purple represent beneficial (negative) impacts; grey is neutral (zero) impact. No surprises: flights "upstream"
(in the weather sense) of the Australian region have the most impact, and, as we might expect, flights over the
eastern states, and over most of the Pacific, are neutral.

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As before, but with the global forecast error norm, showing Pacific routes do have value for reducing the global (as
opposed to the Australian) forecast error, particularly observations made near Antarctica.  

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 Australian Network Sonde (TEMP) FSOI
Number
Total FSOI of FSOI/ob
Station
(J/kg) observatio s (μJ/kg)
ns
Giles -16.7 124422 -133.8
Broome -13.5 67466 -200.2
Willis Island -13.4 124640 -107.6
Darwin -12.8 129785 -98.5
Learmonth Airport -9.0 77056 -116.5
Perth -8.8 137194 -64.5
Charleville -6.4 65142 -98.6
Adelaide -6.3 116879 -54.0
Alice Springs -6.3 35976 -176.1
Gove -5.6 35667 -158.1
Kalgoorlie -5.5 36840 -149.9
Woomera -5.5 54005 -102.2
Weipa -5.1 35312 -143.1
Port Hedland -4.8 23896 -199.2
Townsville -4.7 69124 -68.2
Brisbane -4.4 131718 -33.1
Albany -4.3 38007 -114.1
Geraldton -4.0 36965 -108.3
Mount Isa -3.3 37905 -86.0
Cobar -2.2 21487 -102.7
Rockhampton -2.2 42378 -53.0
Esperance -2.1 37954 -54.2
Sydney -2.0 76975 -25.4
Ceduna -1.9 14285 -134.6
Meekatharra -1.9 20034 -93.0
Lord Howe Island Aero. -1.6 64226 -24.8
Moree -1.5 25790 -59.1
Melbourne -1.3 127241 -10.3
Wagga Wagga -1.3 38530 -33.0
Mount Gambier -1.1 23005 -48.8
Nowra -1.1 30403 -37.7
Hobart -0.9 124431 -7.1
Williamtown -0.7 40076 -17.0
Norfolk Island -0.3 56845 -4.9
Woodstock (Qld) -0.1 1067 -59.5
Macquarie Island 0.0 143477 0.0
Australian Network Surface (SYNOP) FSOI
 Microwave radiance FSOI in the Australian region

Total microwave FSOI (Australian
error norm) plotted at observation
locations, for the "peak months"
June – Sept 2017.
FSOI values have been aggregated
into 1°x 1° observation location bins.
Same, but for microwave FSOI per
observation – from this we identify
two regions where microwave
observations seem to be particularly
valuable …
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 Microwave radiance FSOI in the Australian region

Here we plot the microwave FSOI per channel (left), and the
microwave FSOI per channel per observation (right), for
observations in region-1 (Indian ocean, west of Australian
mainland). Most impact: from mid-tropospheric temperature
channels AMSUA-5 and (equivalent) ATMS-6.
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 Microwave radiance FSOI in the Australian region

Microwave FSOI per channel (left), and the microwave FSOI per
channel per observation (right), for observations in region-2
(Coral/Solomon Seas, north east of Australian mainland).
Here we see more impact from the higher peaking AMSUA-6 and
ATMS-7 channels.
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Concluding remarks

• Network managers report finding the FSOI data informative and

useful.
• Engaging with Bureau observations staff has been very fruitful; in
particular they are receptive to the obvious caveats:
- FSO ≠ OSE
- Limitations of FSO for assessing observations impact in NWP
- NWP impact not the only measure of observation impact/value

• There is enthusiasm within the Bureau for pursuing a significant

uplift in our capacity and capability to assess the impact of
observations in our NWP systems. This in turn will guide and inform
a major ten year project to modernise and upgrade the Bureau's
observing networks, already underway.
 Thank you

Chris.Tingwell@bom.gov.au