MODELING EMISSION IMPACT OF ENERGY SYSTEMS-

FORECASTING EMISSION
PRADIP CHANDA
 Energy Environment Interaction
• Production and consumption generates waste, rejected in environment.
• Environment provides us the following services
• A life support system through air and water
• A resource base – which can be put to extractive or amenity uses
• A west sink – where the waste of the production process is rejected
• These resources and services are scarce in nature. Increased use of these facilities
deteriorates the quality of the environment.
• When the environment is used as a receptor of wastes, there is a limit up to which
it can absorb the wastes. This capacity is known as the absorptive capacity or
assimilative capacity.
• Beyond this when the waste rejection crosses the capacity, the environmental
problem starts. As the users who do create the problem are not often responsible
for bearing the cost of the damage, it creates an externality as well.
 UNDERSTANDING ENVIROMENTAL IMPACT
• As developing countries would demand more energy to drive economic growth, an
important policy issue arises whether they should follow the industrial countries’
policy of polluting first and cleaning later or leap-frog towards cleaner technologies
and avoid the mess in the first place. This is the believe of certain economist.
• The economic logic behind the first comes from the observation known as the
Environmental Kuznets Curve • It suggests an inverted U relationship between per capita
pollution and per capita income
• Such a relationship suggests that in the initial phase of increasing
per capita income, the citizens may be willing to accept a poor
environmental quality but as the income improves, a turning
point will be reached and the demand for better environment
will arise.
• initially agricultural activities dominate, which is followed by
industrialization of the economy and finally a shift towards the
information and service oriented activities takes place.
• However, there are several criticisms against this idea:
In economics, a Kuznets curve graphs the hypothesis that as
an economy develops, market forces first increase and then
decrease economic inequality.
 Classifying the impacts of energy use
• By source: oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear power, biomass, hydroelectricity
• By pollutant: Pb, CO, NOx, SOx, RSPM (PM1, PM2.5 and PM10), SPM, HC, VOC, CH4

By scale
• Household scale: wood burning, inefficient cooking
• Workplace scale: Biomass, Hydro and wind power, Coal, oil and gas, Nuclear power
• Community scale: Sulphur dioxide, NOx, CO, Dioxins etc.
• Regional Scale: Acid deposition
• Global scale: Global climate change
UNDERSTANDING ENVIROMENTAL IMPACT
NUCLEAR ENERGY
-fuels are emitted because of the uranium
-Radioactive waste

HYDROELECTRICITY
-Methane and nitrous oxide can be
released if vegetation decomposes
into the lake
-Affects people and animals who rely on
the rivers
-Affects drinking water, supplies, plants,
and wildlife

BIOMASS
-Nitrogen oxides, sulphur dioxide, and
Carbon dioxide
-Ash is created when biomass is burned
 UNDERSTANDING ENVIROMENTAL IMPACT
• The impacts begin with the extraction of the resource. Continue with the
processing, purification, transportation to place of energy generation, and ends
with the disposal of waste.
• Air pollution with PM and green house gases – Does it have any relation with
energy usage?
• Generation of waste- NOx, CO2, SO2, CH4,Mercury, Ash. What is the relation with
energy usage? Can it be predicted ?
• Climate change – increase in average temperature of global mean surface.

Can this predict the temperature

during 2040?
UNDERSTANDING ENVIROMENTAL IMPACT
 Energy Environment Interaction
• Environmental pollution can be caused by natural phenomena (known as biogenic
sources of pollution) or from human activities (known as anthropogenic sources).
• Human disruption index is the ratio of human-generated flow of pollutants to the
natural baseline. It is dangerously high for toxic materials such as lead and cadmium
 Modeling of Environmental impact
• Six indicators of environmental quality are considered: lack of safe water, lack of
urban sanitation, ambient levels of suspended particulate matters, sulfur dioxide,
generation of municipal waste, and per capita carbon emissions.
• Three models were tested - log linear, quadratic and cubic - to establish the shape
of the relationship between income and each environmental indicator. Two
equations selected
• log(E) = 𝛼 + log(Y)
• Log (E) = 𝛼 + 𝛽1 log(Y) + 𝛽2 1og(Y)2
 Modeling of Environmental impact
• Modeling Particulate emission – There are numbers of models. The basic model is
ln Pt = β1 ln NECt + β2 ln PCCt + β3 ln POILt + β4 ln PCEt + ξt
Where Pt =Pollutant including SO2 and industrial soot, NECt, PCCt, POILt and PCEt are
proportional coal, oil and clean energy consumption. β1 ~ β4 are elastic coefficient of the
regression element.
Modeling CO2 emission – The standard model is expressed as
𝑐𝑡 = 𝛼1 + 𝛼2 𝑒𝑡 + 𝛼3 𝑦𝑡 + 𝛼4 𝑦𝑡2 + 𝛼5 𝑦𝑡3 + 𝜀𝑡

where
c = CO emission per capita at time t.
t 2

et = commercial energy use per capita at time t.

yt = per capita GDP at time t.
1t = the regression error term.
t = discrete time period.
 Modelling of Environmental impact
• All the variables are transformed in natural logarithm as shown in
equation below:
THANK YOU