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ISH Journal of Hydraulic Engineering

ISSN: 0971-5010 (Print) 2164-3040 (Online) Journal homepage: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/tish20

Estimation of dew point temperature using SVM


and ELM for humid and semi-arid regions of India

Paresh Chandra Deka, Amit Prakash Patil, P. Yeswanth Kumar & Sujay
Raghavendra Naganna

To cite this article: Paresh Chandra Deka, Amit Prakash Patil, P. Yeswanth Kumar &
Sujay Raghavendra Naganna (2017): Estimation of dew point temperature using SVM and
ELM for humid and semi-arid regions of India, ISH Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, DOI:
10.1080/09715010.2017.1408037

To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/09715010.2017.1408037

Published online: 27 Nov 2017.

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ISH Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2017
https://doi.org/10.1080/09715010.2017.1408037

Estimation of dew point temperature using SVM and ELM for humid and semi-arid
regions of India
Paresh Chandra Dekaa, Amit Prakash Patilb, P. Yeswanth Kumara and Sujay Raghavendra Nagannaa 
a
Department of Applied Mechanics and Hydraulics, National Institute of Technology Karnataka, Surathkal, India; bDepartment of Civil Engineering,
Dr. Daulatrao Aher College of Engineering, Karad, India

ABSTRACT ARTICLE HISTORY


The dew point temperature is the temperature at which the moisture in the air begins to condense Received 2 May 2017
into dew or water droplets. The accurate estimation of the dew point temperature is very important as Accepted 18 November 2017
it controls the heat stress on humans, detects fluctuations of evaporation rates, and humidity trends. KEYWORDS
The dew point temperature is a significant parameter particularly required in various hydrological, Dew point temperature; ELM;
climatological and agronomical related researches. This study proposes Support Vector Machine
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humid region; SVM; semi-


(SVM) and Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) models for the estimation of daily dew point temperature. arid region
The daily measured weather data (Wet bulb temperature, relative humidity, vapor pressure and dew
point temperature) of humid and semi-arid regions of India were used for model development. The
statistical indices, namely Mean Absolute Error, Root Mean Square Error, and Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency
were adopted to evaluate the performances of these two models. The merit of the ELM model is
evaluated against SVM technique in the estimation of dew point temperature. The proposed ELM
models demonstrated much greater capability than the SVM models in the estimation of daily dew
point temperature.

1. Introduction time using relative humidity, air temperature, vapor pressure,


solar radiation, wind speed and direction as inputs. Zounemat-
The dew point temperature (DPT) is the temperature at which
Kermani (2012) considered weather-related inputs such as air
the atmosphere can no longer hold the water vapor, which is
temperature, pressure, relative humidity, weather condition,
suspended in the air, so a portion of the water vapor condenses
wind speed and wind direction while developing multi lin-
into water. The DPT is always lesser than or equal to the ambi-
ear regression and Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) feed-forward
ent temperature. It is believed that adjustments in the near-sur- neural network models for estimating the hourly DPT. Four
face energy and water balances, along with greenhouse gas models namely generalized regression neural networks model
emissions, are probably going to majorly affect the long-term (GRNNM) and Kohonen self-organizing feature maps neural
trends of DPT (Robinson 2000). Hence, accurate estimation networks model (KSOFM), ANFIS model with sub-clustering
of the DPT is very significant as it controls the heat stress on identification (ANFIS-SC) and ANFIS model with grid parti-
humans, detects fluctuations of evaporation rates, and humid- tioning identification (ANFIS-GP) were employed to estimate
ity trends (Lawrence 2005). It is also crucial from the viewpoint daily DPT in the study carried out by Kisi et al. (2013). They
of agriculture, horticulture, and agronomy because most plant were successful in estimating DPT by using only two input
diseases are caused by pathogens which require free moisture variables, viz. mean air temperature and relative humidity.
to develop. The dew additionally supports vegetation of dry The performance of gene expression programming while esti-
zones where rain is deficient (Hill et al. 2015). Also, several mating daily DPT surpassed the ANN models in the study
hydro-climatological models need dew point values as one of by Shiri, et al. (2014). Here, the weather data of one station
the input variable for estimating evaporation and reference was used as input to estimate the DPT of adjacent station. The
crop evapotranspiration (Chung et al. 2012; Oudin et al. 2010). potential of Generalized Regression Neural Networks (GRNN)
There is a need to estimate and analyze the long-term trends and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) in modeling daily DPT
of dew point in order to uncover the impacts of global climate was verified by Kim, et al. (2015). In the study carried out by
change on it. Mohammadi et al. (2015) an extreme learning machine (ELM)
Till date, the estimation of DPT was traditionally per- based model was utilized for the prediction of daily DPT of
formed using empirical equations (Roberts 2003). With the Bandar Abass and Tabass stations situated in different parts of
recent developments in science and technology, soft com- Iran. DPT prediction models based on hybrid approach com-
puting techniques such as artificial neural network (ANN), bining the ELM with wavelet transform (WT) algorithm was
genetic programming (GP), support vector machine (SVM) developed by Amirmojahedi et al. (2016) in order to improve
and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) have been the precision of ELM model.
broadly applied to estimate DPT. Shank et al. (2008) devel- The DPT has been estimated and analyzed by using a
oped ANN models for predicting the DPT up to 12  h lead number of input (meteorological) variables (more than 3) of

CONTACT  Paresh Chandra Deka  pareshdeka@yahoo.com, prof_deka@nitk.ac.in


© 2017 Indian Society for Hydraulics
2   P. C. DEKA ET AL.

weather stations in the earlier studies. Also, the estimation of 2006 to October 2006 were reserved for testing of the mod-
DPT in humid and semi-arid region is very scanty in literature. els. Similarly, the data sample of Hyderabad station covers
Hence, in this study, the ELM and SVM models are devel- a period of January 2007 to December 2009, with a total of
oped to estimate daily DPT of 3rd hour and 12th hour UTC 1047 daily observations, wherein twenty-six months of data
(Coordinated Universal Time) using three input variables viz. between the period January 2007 to February 2009 were used
wet bulb temperature, relative humidity and vapor pressure for model training and the remaining ten months of data
only. Daily data of above input variables from humid (Bajpe) between the period March 2009 to December 2009 were
and semi-arid (Hyderabad) regions of India are used in the reserved for testing of the models. After finding the correla-
present study. The performance of ELM models is compared tion of every influencing physical parameter (such as dry bulb
with that of SVM models using statistical indices, such as root temperature, wet bulb temperature, vapor pressure, relative
mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) humidity, average wind speed, and sunshine hours) with DPT,
and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE). only three parameters mentioned above were considered as
inputs for estimating the DPT. Table 1 presents the statistical
properties of the data-set.
2.  Study area and data descriptions
In the present study, a model was developed for estimating
3.  Methodology and model development
DPT of two diverse climatic regions. The weather data of Bajpe
station 17.44° N, 78.47° E which come under humid tropical 3.1.  Extreme learning machine
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region and Hyderabad station 12.94° N, 74.82° E belonging to


Huang et al. (2006) first proposed an algorithm called ELM
semi-arid region for the years 2006–2010 was collected from
which had a better generalized performance and was much
Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), India. The weather
faster than the traditional feed forward network (FFNN)
station Bajpe is located near to south-west coast in the state of
algorithms like back-propagation (BP) algorithm. The tradi-
Karnataka, India. The mean annual rainfall over this region is
tional FFNN needs to be tuned for different parameters and
around 3,500 mm. The humidity is approximately 75 percent
there has always been a dependency between different layers
on average, and peaks during the months of May, June, and
of parameters like weights and bias. The algorithms like BP
July. The climate of Hyderabad weather station is characterized
during training of single-layer feed forward network (SLFN)
by the medium level of precipitation (from 300 to 600 mm),
network use some rules to adjust the weights based on the given
shorter cool season, longer warm season and scrubby vegeta-
batch of training examples. On the other hand, the weights
tion. Figure 1 presents the location map of the weather stations.
are chosen randomly in ELM. On choosing the input weights
The data sample comprised of daily records of measured
and hidden layer biases the SLFN can be considered as a lin-
Wet Bulb Temperature, Vapor Pressure, Relative Humidity
ear system and the output weights are analytically determined
and DPT at two different points of time, i.e. 3rd hour and
by simple generalized inverse operation of the hidden layer
12th hour UTC on the same day. The data sample of Bajpe
output matrices. This simplified approach makes ELM work
station represents the period from January 2005 to October
faster than the feed forward algorithm. Feng, et al. (2016) and
2006, with a total of 669 daily observations. Out of the data
Patil and Deka (2016) have successfully used ELM to estimate
obtained, sixteen months of data between the period January
evapotranspiration.
2005 to April 2006 were used for training the model and
the remaining six months data between the months of May
3.2.  Support vector machine
SVM one of the supervised learning method was introduced
in 1992 by Vladimir Vapnik and his co-workers (Vapnik 1995).
Basically, SVM is a machine learning technique for linear and
non-linear classification as well as regression. In the case of
non-linear data, SVM maps the data-sets of input space into
a higher dimensional feature space, using kernel functions
which have the ability to convert them into linear ones. In the
high dimensional feature space, simpler and linear hyper plane
classifiers that have a maximal margin between the classes are
obtained. SVM provides maximum predictive accuracy auto-
matically either by avoiding/minimizing over fitting of data.
SVM is based on Structural Risk Minimization principle and
includes convex optimization algorithm wherein the empiri-
cal risk and the confidence interval of the learning machine
are simultaneously minimized by maximizing the geometric
margin. SVM can efficiently perform nonlinear regression by
utilizing Kernel trick. The computation is critically dependent
upon the length of the training patterns / data-set, selection of
hyper-parameters and finding out their optimal values while
modeling any time series. The details regarding SVM and
its theory can be found in the following literatures (Cortes
and Vapnik 1995; Cristianini and Shawe-Taylor 2000; Vapnik
1999). A brief review of applications of SVM in the field of
Figure 1. Location map of the weather stations.
ISH JOURNAL OF HYDRAULIC ENGINEERING   3

Table 1. Statistical parameters of the data-set during the study period.

3rd hour UTC


Train Test
WBT (°C) RH (%) VP (hpa) DPT (°C) WTB (°C) RH (%) VP (hpa) DPT (°C)
Bajpe station Min 15.6 39 11.7 9.3 22.6 73 25.3 22.1
Max 24.4 78 27.9 22.9 24.8 84 29.3 23.7
Mean 23.1 77 25.95 21.65 24.6 82.5 29.1 23.6
S.Dev. 1.83 1.41 2.75 1.76 0.28 2.12 0.28 0.14
Var. 3.38 2 7.60 3.12 0.08 4.5 0.08 0.02
Skew. −0.97 −0.83 −1.04 −1.46 1.17 0.72 0.18 0.19
12th hour UTC
Min 19.8 27 13.3 11.2 25 65 27.6 22.7
Max 24.8 66 27.1 22.4 25.8 82 31.3 24.8
Mean 24.3 65 26.35 21.95 25.4 73.5 29.45 23.75
S.Dev 0.70 1.41 1.06 0.63 0.56 12.02 2.61 1.48
Var. 0.5 2 1.125 0.40 0.32 144.5 6.845 2.205
Skew. −0.72 0.10 −0.86 −1.27 −0.57 −0.14 −0.18 −0.31
Hyderabad station 3rd hour UTC
Min 10.6 26 7.7 3.3 17.2 29 11.3 8.8
Max 19 73 16.5 14.5 19 86 20.8 18.1
Mean 17.7 59 16.3 14.3 18.1 57.5 16.05 13.45
S.Dev. 1.83 19.79 0.28 0.28 1.27 40.30 6.71 6.57
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Var. 3.38 392 0.08 0.08 1.62 162.5 45.12 43.24


Skew. −0.57 −0.35 −0.34 −0.75 −0.93 −0.3 −0.69 −1.14
12th hour UTC
Min 17.8 25 13.9 11.9 20.4 23 13.1 11
Max 21.4 40 14.8 12.8 20.6 55 19.6 17.2
Mean 19.6 32.5 14.35 12.35 20.5 39 16.35 14.1
S.Dev. 2.54 10.60 0.63 0.63 0.14 22.62 4.59 4.38
Var. −6.48 −112.5 −0.405 −0.405 0.02 512 21.12 19.22
Skew −0.32 0.63 0.19 −0.19 −0.71 0.41 −0.26 −0.65

Table 2.  Correlation coefficient of dew point temperature with model input performance. Huang and Siew (2004) shown that instead of
­parameters. tuning the centers and impact widths of RBF kernels, we may
Bajpe station Hyderabad station just simply randomly choose values for these parameters and
3rd hour 12th hour 3rd hour 12th hour analytically calculate the output weights of RBF. Radial basis
Correlation
UTC UTC UTC UTC activation function was employed for all the ELM models tested
coefficient DPT (°C) DPT (°C) DPT (°C) DPT (°C) in this study.
WBT (°C) 0.97 0.90 0.90 0.87 The SVM model was developed by means of LIBSVM soft-
RH (%) 0.75 0.80 0.69 0.83 ware version 3.21 (Chang and Lin 2011) employing RBF kernel
VP (hPa) 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.99 function. The accuracy of an RBF kernel based SVR model is
DPT (°C) 1 1 1 1
principally dependent on the selection of the model parame-
ters such as C- regularization parameter, Gamma (γ) – kernel
parameter and the epsilon parameter (ε). The V-fold cross-val-
hydrological forecasting is provided by Sujay Raghavendra and idation parameter selection method was used to search for the
Deka (2014). optimal parameters of SVM using the error computed from the
training data. The optimal values of hyper-parameters obtained
3.3.  Model development during training of RBF kernel based SVM models are as given
in Table 3.
The input–output combination devised for formulating ELM
and SVM models is based on the weather variables having a
good correlation with DPT (refer Table 2). The DPTs of both 3.4.  Performance evaluation
3rd hour and 12th hour UTC are estimated by the input-output The statistical indices assess the level of confidence that one
structure as given below. can have in the estimates of the model. The performance of
Dew point temperature  →  f [Wet Bulb Temperature ELM and SVM models were evaluated using the following
(WBT) + Relative Humidity (RH) + Vapor Pressure (VP)] statistical indices:
A three-layered architecture was adopted for ELM model Root Mean Square Error (RMSE),
development. The first layer (input layer) used different mete- �
orological parameters (refer Table 2) as inputs. The output � n �
�∑ �2
layer had one neuron representing the estimated DPT. For the �
� i=1 x i − yi
hidden layer a maximum of 200 neurons were tested for each RMSE =
model. For determining the optimum number of neurons in n
the hidden layer, initially 10 neurons were tested and subse- Mean Absolute Error (MAE),
quently the number of neurons was gradually increased to 200 n
by an interval of ten. ELM can be extended to single-hidden ∑ �y − x �
� i i�
layer feedforward neural networks with radial basis function MAE =
i=1

(RBF) kernels. The ELM algorithm with RBF kernels can com- n
plete learning at extremely fast speed and produce generalized Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE).
4   P. C. DEKA ET AL.

n �
∑ �2 4.  Results and discussion
yi − xi
NSE = 1 −
i=1
This part of the paper focuses on evaluating the performance of
n
∑�
xi − x̄
�2 proposed SVM and ELM models for estimating the daily DPT
i=1 of 3rd and 12th hour UTC, respectively. Basically, the ability
of any model or technique to provide a precise estimation is
where, xi – true value; yi – model estimated value; x̄ – mean of
dependent on the appropriate selection of input parameters.
true values; ȳ – mean of model estimated values; n – number
For this study, three meteorological variables namely, WBT,
of data points.
RH and VP were selected as inputs considering the correlation
Table 3. Optimal values of RBF kernel-based SVM hyper-parameters. between these inputs with the DPT (refer Table 2). The results
of the SVM and ELM models of the humid Bajpe weather sta-
No. of support
SVM models C γ ε vectors tion for 3rd hour and 12th hour UTC are presented in Table 4.
Bajpe station 3rd hour model 22 8 0.01 235 The results presented here are with respect to the performance
12th hour model 28 7 0.01 254 of the models in the testing phase. The 3rd hour SVM model
Hyderabad 3rd hour model 37 12 0.01 262 performed poorly with RMSE, MAE and NSE of 0.48 (°C), 0.21
station 12th hour model 41 14 0.01 269
(°C) and 0.52, respectively. However, the performance of 3rd
hour ELM model is satisfactory with RMSE, MAE and NSE of
Table 4. Testing performance of the SVM and ELM models at the Bajpe station. 0.38 (°C), 0.04 (°C), and 0.69, respectively. The performance
Model Model parameters RMSE (°C) MAE (°C) NSE of both SVM and ELM models are better while estimating the
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3rd hr. SVM 28, 8, 0.01 0.48 0.21 0.52 12th hour DPT as compared to 3rd hour DPT. Also, it can
3rd hr. ELM 3-40-1 0.38 0.04 0.69 be observed that the performance of ELM models is better
12th hr. SVM 28, 7, 0.01 0.52 0.28 0.62
12th hr. ELM 3-90-1 0.10 0.02 0.90
than the SVM models for estimating both 3rd hour and 12th
hour DPT. The 3rd hour ELM model used forty neurons in the

Figure 2. Scatter plot for the proposed models at Bajpe station.


ISH JOURNAL OF HYDRAULIC ENGINEERING   5

hidden layer and presented a better performance than the SVM data points in the scatter plots of the ELM model is substan-
model. However, there is a drastic variation in the performance tially lower than that of the plots of SVM models. This clearly
of SVM and ELM models while estimating 12th hour DPT. It indicates the high potential of ELM to predict daily DPT. It
can be observed that the 12th hour ELM model with ninety can be observed from the scatter plots that the SVM model
neurons in the hidden layer delivered the best performance underestimated the DPT values.
amongst all the models tested at the Bajpe station. A similar analysis was also carried out for the semiarid
To graphically analyze the capability of the developed ELM Hyderabad weather station to evaluate the performance
and SVM models for Bajpe station, the predicted values are of the proposed models. The results of the models tested at
plotted against the measured data. The scatter plots of predicted Hyderabad station are presented in the Table 5. The results of
daily DPTs by ELM and SVM against the measured data for the the Hyderabad station are also in line with the results at the
testing phase are illustrated in Figure 2. There exists a favorable Bajpe station. The minimum RMSE and maximum NSE were
correlation between the measured and predicted values by the found by ELM models with respect to both 3rd hour and 12th
ELM models for both stations; the dispersion degree of the hour DPT estimations. The 12th hour ELM and SVM mod-
els performed better than the 3rd hour UTC models. Further,
Table 5. Testing performance of the SVM and ELM models at the Hyderabad sta- based on all indices it can be inferred that the ELM models have
tion. performed better than the SVM models. This performance may
Model Model parameters RMSE (°C) MAE (°C) NSE be because of the less parameter optimization needed for the
3rd hr. SVM 28, 8, 0.01 2.36 1.04 0.63 ELM models. The 12th hour ELM model with RMSE of 0.59 °C
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3rd hr. ELM 3-50-1 0.63 0.32 0.95 is the best model for estimating DPT at the Hyderabad station.
12th hr. SVM 28, 7, 0.01 1.98 1.05 0.82 This model used seventy nodes in the hidden layer.
12th hr. ELM 3-70-1 0.59 0.14 0.97

Figure 3. Scatter plots for the proposed models at Hyderabad station.


6   P. C. DEKA ET AL.
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Figure 4. Box plots for Bajpe station.

Scatter plots for the Hyderabad station also depict the supe- and agriculture. Artificial intelligence techniques like ELM and
riority of ELM models in estimating the DPT for both 3rd SVM possess particular features that are instrumental to pro-
hour UTC and 12th hour UTC as evident from Figure 3. It can vide reliable and accurate DPT estimates. The present study
be further observed that the both the SVM models underesti- investigated the applicability of ELM and SVM models to esti-
mated the smaller values and overestimated the larger values mate the DPT of humid and semiarid regions of India and were
of DPT. Whereas, the dispersion degree of the scatter plots of compared to each other’s. The performance of the models was
the ELM models is lower than the plots of the SVM models. evaluated using different statistical parameters, scatter plots
This demonstrates the higher degree of linear relationship and box plots.
between the estimated values of ELM models and the meas- From the analysis of the results, it is evident that both the
ured values. SVM and ELM perform well in the estimation of DPT. Based
Further box plots were also used to analyze the spread on the performance indices, the ELM models were found to
of the data points estimated by the models. Figures 4 and 5 perform better than the SVM models. For instance, the ELM
presents the box plots for the models tested at the Bajpe and models at Bajpe and Hyderabad stations had NSE = 0.90 and
Hyderabad station. The box plots clearly present the superiority 0.97, respectively. Further, it was observed that these models
of the ELM models in estimating the DPT of both Bajpe and were more efficient in modeling 12th hour DPT at both humid
Hyderabad stations. For both Bajpe and Hyderabad station, it and semi-arid regions. The forecasting efficiency of SVM is
can be observed that the SVM model has underestimated the dependent over the optimal choice of C, ε and kernel parameter
smaller values of DPT. However, similar patterns of data spread (γ) and subsequently the performance of the ELM is governed
can be seen between the observed data-set and the ELM model by the optimum number of neurons in the hidden layer. These
at both the stations. The analysis clearly demonstrates that the models are particularly effective for estimating the missing
ELM model has high capabilities to estimate daily DPT in both DPT records due to faulty equipment or routine maintenance
humid and semiarid regions. schedules. The suggested strategy can be adopted to model
other weather parameters of similar statistical behavior.
5. Conclusions
Acknowledgements
Accessibility of reliable and accurate estimates of DPT is of
immense importance in many fields like hydrology, climatology The authors would like to thank the Indian Meteorological Department
for providing the necessary data required for research and the
ISH JOURNAL OF HYDRAULIC ENGINEERING   7
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Figure 5. Box plots for Hyderabad station.

Department of Applied Mechanics & Hydraulics, National Institute of Feng, Y., Cui, N., Zhao, L., Hu, X., and Gong, D. (2016). “Comparison of
Technology Karnataka for the necessary infrastructural support. ELM, GANN, WNN and empirical models for estimating reference
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Disclosure statement Hill, A.J., Dawson, T.E., Shelef, O., and Rachmilevitch, S. (2015). “The
role of dew in Negev Desert plants.” Oecologia, 178(2), 317–327.
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