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Investor Tour - I VFinal
Investor Tour - I VFinal
Agend
future and not on historical facts, involve various risks and uncertainties. Vale
cannot guarantee that such statements will prove correct. These risks and
uncertainties include factors related to the following: (a) the countries where we
operate, especially Brazil and Canada; (b) the global economy; (c) the capital
markets; (d) the mining and metals prices and their dependence on global
industrial production, which is cyclical by nature; and (e) global competition in the
markets in which Vale operates. To obtain further information on factors that may
lead to results different from those forecast by Vale, please consult the reports
Vale files with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the
Brazilian Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM), the French Autorité des
Marchés Financiers (AMF) and in particular the factors discussed under
“Forward-Looking Statements” and “Risk Factors” in Vale’s annual report on Form
20-F.”
“Cautionary Note to U.S. Investors - The SEC permits mining companies, in their
filings with the SEC, to disclose only those mineral deposits that a company can
economically and legally extract or produce. We present certain information in
this presentation, including ‘measured resources,’ ‘indicated resources,’ ‘inferred
resources,’ ‘geologic resources’, which would not be permitted in an SEC filing.
These materials are not proven or probable reserves, as defined by the SEC, and
we cannot assure you that these materials will be converted into proven or
probable reserves, as defined by the SEC. U.S. Investors should consider closely
the disclosure in our Annual Report on Form 20-K, which may be obtained from
us, from our website or at http://http://us.sec.gov/edgar.shtml.”
2
3
6.0
10.0 1.0
5.0
0.0 0.8
4.0
-10.0 0.6
3.0
-20.0 0.4
2.0
3 1LHS stands for Left Hand Side axis and RHS stands for Right Hand Side axis
Source: Platts and Metal Bulletin
4
In a nutshell, the market needs richer ores but, on average, is getting the same Fe with higher
contaminants thus, higher Fe and low-contaminant products are progressively increasing in value
4
1 Data from 45 main Chinese ports
5
85%
600
80%
75%
400
70%
200 65%
60%
0
2016 2017 2018
5
Source: NBS, CRU
6
20
200
150 15
100 10
50 5
0 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018A 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
IO anchor prices are defined not only by costs but also by discounts
on low grade ores in scenarios of high productivity requirements
2024, Iron Cost (cash cost + sustaining) CFR China, 62% Fe normalized
Premiums/discounts
CFR China cash costs and sustaing (US$/dmt)
Low grade
High/Medium grade
7
8
Sales composition
Portfolio
% Premium products¹
optimization
Other products²
• IOCJ: market
positioning and
commercial initiatives
concluded
53%
66% • BRBF: market
73%
82% positioning ongoing
72.0
• Silica: 5.0%
70.0
68.0
• Alumina: 1.5%
66.0
64.0
• Phosphorus: 0.07%
62.0
60.0
Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Jul-18 Aug-18
BRBF: a new low-alumina 62% Fe content reference being sold in more than 10 countries in Asia
and representing the basis of the new MB 62% Fe Low Alumina index
9
¹ Average specs of next years (w et basis)
Source: Mysteel
10
• Average premium in
High grade
fines % • Phosphorus: 0.045% 2Q18 of US$ 11.5-
12.0/t
10
¹ Using fines from the Southeastern System
² Average specs of next years (w et basis)
11
✓ Increase of market capillarity and customer • Expand market capillarity and customer
base
base
• Expose and capture the value of ores
✓ Optimization of product portfolio with a low alumina/silica ratio
✓ 100% of Carajás sales contracts based on − Spot sales of BRBF with fixed price
− Maximize BRBF price realization
MB 65% index
through the new Metal Bulletin
✓ Resumption of idle pellet capacity Brazilian ore index
• Optimize vessel fleet distribution
✓ Optimization of vessel fleet (trip from and to
worldwide
Brazil) • Increase the production of direct
reduction pellets
11
12
10.0 - 10.5
3.0
5.4
3.2
1.9
7.0 – 7.5
1.5
3.5
1.7
2016 2017 2018E
12
¹ Premium over the 62% Fe content reference price (includes % Fe differential to 62%, premiums and pellets adjustment)
² Excludes % Fe differential to 62% of US$ 2.5/t in 2018, US$ 2.5/t in 2017 and US$ 1.8/t in 2016
XVIII Analyst & Investor Tour
The unique product portfolio
Rogério
13 Carneiro
September 6th, 2018
14
Contents
Main iron ore quality attributes and impacts in iron and steelmaking
14
15
Vale leverages its know-how in Iron Ore and Coal into the
steelmaking production chain through the CTF
Agglomeration Ironmaking Refining
Lumps Lumps Blast
BF and Furnace Converter
STEELMAKING
DR
CHAIN
• Pelletizing model
Main iron ore quality attributes and impacts in iron and steelmaking
16
17
crystal size
94
490
92
60 - 80 μm
10 - 40 μm
485
80 - 120
88
>120
86
480
84
< 30µm
. ..
40~70µm ... ....
>80µm
475
470
IOCJ Australia Canada 60 70 80 90
Iron ore type by crystal size (μm) Reducibility (RI)
68
64
62
60
Brazilian ores
58
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Loss on ignition (%)
Vale’s ores have lower LOI, which lowers sinter
plant fuel consumption
12
Steel cost variation (US$/t)
10
0
0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.14
Hot metal P content (%)
19 Costs and productivity are negatively affected in the basic oxygen furnace
1 Area indicates different techniques for de-phosphorization
20
Brittle 500
sinter 499
BF fuel-rate (kg/t)
498
<4.5%
497
S iO2 (%)
Optimum 496
range 495
494
>6.0%
Sinter with 493
too much 492
slag and
491
low 230 240 250 260 270 280 290
reducibility
Slag rate (kg/t)
Silica increases additives
Silica increases slag rate, coke rate,
consumption, slag production, fuel
CO2 emission and hampers
consumption and particulates
productivity of the blast furnace
20emission at the sinter plant
21
1385
4.1
1380
1375 4
1370
3.9
1365
1360 3.8
1355
3.7
1350
1345 3.6
15 15.5 16 17 18
% Al2O3
Upper limit – risk of high
viscosity in the slag
To keep slag flowing out of the blast furnace, it is necessary to increase the thermal level, which
21 demands more coke
1 LHS stands for Left Hand Side axis and RHS stands for Right Hand Side axis
22
3.5 High alumina & low silica High alumina High silica & alumina
3.2 FMG SS
2.9 FMG FB
2.6 Jimblebar
Pilbara Fines
2.3 MAC
Newman Fines
High silica
2.0
FMG King Fines
1.7
Yandi BHP
1.4 IOCJ BRBF
1.1 Ideal
0.8 SSFT
SFLA
0.5
1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
% SiO2 calcined
Iron ores in the highlighted area are ideal for sintering whereas other iron ores need to be blended
22
1 Limit proportion betw een Al2O3 and SiO2 percentages for an efficient sintering and blast furnace operation (Japan case)
23
Fe SiO2+Al2O3
SiO 2 + Al2O3 Al2O3
Al2O3
Pilbara Blend
Yandi BHP
Pilbara Blend
Newman
Yandi BHP
FMG SS
Newman
Pilbara Blend
BRBF
FMG SS
IOCJ
Yandi BHP
BRBF
Newman
IOCJ
FMG SS
BRBF
IOCJ
IOC J B R B F NEWMA N P B YA NDI B HP FMG B LEND IOC J B R B F NEWMA N P B YA NDI B HP FMG B LEND IOC J B R B F NEWMA N P B YA NDI B HP FMG B LEND
Yandi BHP
Pilbara Blend
Newman
Yandi BHP
FMG SS
Newman
Pilbara Blend
BRBF
FMG SS
IOCJ
Yandi BHP
BRBF
Newman
IOCJ
FMG SS
BRBF
IOCJ
23
1 At current steel margins and coke prices
24
PREMIUM
Specs
IODEX62
(zero level)
PENALTIES
24
1 At current steel margins and coke prices
XVIII Analyst & Investor Tour
Capturing the intrinsic value of Vale’s ore
Rogério
25 Nogueira
September 6th, 2018
26
26
27
27
28
The cost reduction associated with the use of high grade ores
is significant
▪ Slag rate
▪ RDI (Reduction $/dmt of iron
▪ Flux and burnt lime degradation index) ore
consumption
▪ Coke breeze
consumption
▪ BF metallic burden
consumption
14.6
20.5 19.4
5.9
Metallic burden Coke consumption Value impact on hot Value impact on high
impact impact metal costs grade ores
¹ Cost differentials based only on transformation costs, not on acquisition costs; assuming coke cost of US$280/t (HCC CFR at Chinese mills of US$215/t,
28
SSCC of US$125/t) and PCI of US$140/t
² High grade ore: Fe: 65%; Low grade ore: Fe: 56.6%
29
Slag rate
25%
reduction
COKE
SINTER
COHESIVE
ZONE
8% Volume effect x
+
HEATED AIR
Increase in Slag volumetric
~20% blast furnace 30% share in BF
productivity burden
Increase in slag reduces
blast furnace productivity
12% Permeability
effect
29
¹ High grade ore: Fe: 64.5~65%; Low grade ore: Fe: 56.6%; slag rate of low grade ores @ 395 kg/t vs 292 kg/t for high grade ore. Considering 75% of
sinter in metallic burden
30
27.8
19.7
11.7
50 100 150
30
1 High grade ore: Fe: 65%; Low grade ore: Fe: 56.6%.
31
0 50 100 150
Steel Margins $/t (productivity driver)
31
¹ Typical operation: 75% Sinter + 10% Australian Lump + 15% Domestic pellet, BF Slag:B2: 1.13, MgO: 9.0%, Al2O3: 15.5% max
32
32
33
Silica %
33
¹ Only fixed-price spot sales
Source: Vale analysis and PRAs (Price Reporting Agency) data
34
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
3-Apr-18 18-Apr-18 3-May-18 18-May-18 2-Jun-18 17-Jun-18 2-Jul-18 17-Jul-18 1-Aug-18 16-Aug-18
34
Source: Vale and PRAs (Price Reporting Agency) data
35
74
72
70
68
66
64
62
60
Apr/18 May/18 Jun/18 Jul/18 Aug/18
35
Source: Metal Bulletin
36
36
37
0.44
0.41 0.42
0.08
0.36 0.37 0.07 0.07
0.32 0.07 0.07
0.06
37
¹ Seaborne average excluding Vale
Source: Vale database, info is based on marketing rounds w ith technical consultants
38
45 180 32
30
55
15
14
80
63
24 24
South Flank Koodaideri Eliwana Others Total Yandi Hope Solomon Chichester Brockman 2 Others Net additions
Downs 1 Hub Hub until 2025
38
¹ Seaborne excluding Brazil
Source: Vale database, info is based on marketing rounds w ith technical consultants
39
39
40
Al Si
% %
4.95
2.04
6.3 5.7
2.1 5.0 5.0
1.8 1.5
0.9 1.0 2.1 2.4
0.5
IOCJ BRBF SFLA PFFT SSFT SSFG IOCJ BRBF SFLA PFFT SSFT SSFG
Al/Si P
%
0.07
0.41
0.86 0.06 0.07 0.06 0.07
0.30 0.37 0.04
0.18 0.21 0.16 0.02
IOCJ BRBF SFLA PFFT SSFT SSFG IOCJ BRBF SFLA PFFT SSFT SSFG
Source: Vale database, info is based on marketing rounds w ith technical consultants
XVIII Analyst & Investor Tour
Supply chain management
Vagner
41 Loyola
September 6th, 2018
42
Margin optimization
42
43
COI
Global COI System COI Center of Excellence (CE)
43
44
May
2nd half of Discussions begin on trends towards high silica discounts
the month
44
45
4.0 2.1
1.9
17.2 17.2
Freight cost 2Q18 Marine diesel Valemax G2 and Scrubbers3 Adjusted freight
adjustment 1 Guaibamax 2 cost 4
1 Based on US$ 200/t spread betw een marine diesel price and bunker price and 0.02 bunker factor
2 Based
45 on 100 Mt of freight capacity for 25 Valemax G2 and 47 Guaibamax and 70% CFR sales of Iron Ore fines
3 Based on 160 Mt of freight capacity w ith installed scrubbers, 0.015 bunker factor and US$ 0.30/t scrubber operational cost. Does not consider installation cash outflow
4 Considers full fleet of Valemax G2 and Guaibamax in operation and all scrubbers installed
46
¹ Does not include % Fe differential to 62% of US$ 2.5/t in 2018, US$ 2.5/t in 2017 and US$ 1.8/t in 2016
46
² Premium over the 62% Fe content reference price (includes % Fe differential to 62%, premiums and pellets adjustment)
3 Renminbi
47
Examples
Opportunities Benefits
47
XVIII Analyst & Investor Tour
Closing remarks
Luciano
48 Siani Pires
September 6th, 2018
49
Analysts' Working Interest on Income tax Investment Others² Free cash Cobalt Net Free cash
average Capital loans & REFIS flow, net of stream disposal flow
EBITDA disposals
2018¹
50
1 Sales expenses, R&D, Pre-operating & stoppage and other expenses
51
4,069 857
483 3,861
166
3,605 2,669
3,378
3,212
769 1,722
17
936 953
COGS By-product COGS Expenses Premium / EBITDA COGS By-product COGS Expenses Premium / EBITDA
revenues after and others¹ discounts break revenues after and others¹ discounts break
by-product even 2Q18 by-product even 2Q18
revenues revenues
On a consolidated view, Salobo and Sossego’s joint EBITDA breakeven is US$ 2,404/t
51
1 Sales expenses, R&D, Pre-operating & stoppage and other expenses
52
2Q18 Pro-forma C1 Cash Cost Full ramp-up pro-forma C1 Cash Cost Guidance
US$/t US$/t
4
128 12
125
117 117
45
25-30 0 85-95 3- 6
82-89
79
60-65
Pro-forma
Pro-forma Nacala non-
Nacala Other
Other Cost at
Costat NLC’s
NLC's debt Pro-forma
Pro-forma Pro-forma
Pro-forma Nacal a non-
Nacala Other
Othercosts Cost at Nacala NLC’s
Costat NLC's debt Pro-forma
Pro-forma C1
operational operational costs Nacala service C1 cash cost operational operational tariff² Port service to Vale cash cost
operational
costs¹ non-
tari
ff² costs Nacala
Port debt
to Vale C12Q18
cash operational
costs¹ non- costs Nacala debt C1
guidcash
ance
costs1 operational Port service cost costs1 operational Port service cost
tariff2 to Vale 2Q18 tariff2 to Vale guidance
52
1 Includes the NLC tariff components related to fix and variable costs and excludes royalties
2 Includes the NLC tariff components related to sustaining capex, w orking capital, taxes and other financial items
53
Copper Brazil 7,000 2,404 288 Kt ~US$ 4.5 bi ~US$ 3.4 bi ~US$ 8.1 bi
Strong balance sheet set the basis for starting a new era of
shareholder remuneration
22.1
4.5
1.0
14.9
2.1
11.5
10.0
1.5 1.4
0.3
2Q17 1Q18 2Q18 Target 2016 2017 2018 2019
54
55
São Luís,
Tubarão I and II VBME Salobo III Optionality
pellet plants
55
56
• Energy
Bolt-on Acquisitions
• Southern System
1 56
30% x (Adjusted EBITDA – Sustaining Investments). Approximately 50% of FCF
2 Based on average volume of the first five years (~50kt). Net of Wheaton Precious Minerals contribution of US$ 600 million
57