8/30/06

Colorado State University

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
CE 322

Precipitation
by Jose D. Salas

Table of Contents

1. Types of Precipitation

2. Formation of Precipitation

3. General Characteristics of Storm Types

4. Measurement of Precipitation

5. Temporal and Spatial Variability of Precipitation

6. Estimating Mean Precipitation Over an Area

6.1 Arithmetic mean

6.2 Thiessen polygons
6.3 Isohyetal method
6.4 Statistical spatial analysis techniques

7. Estimating Missing Precipitation Data

7.1 Causes of Missing Data

7.2 Methods for Estimating Missing Data

8. Consistency Analysis of Precipitation Data

8.1 Inconsistent Data
8.2 Methods of Consistency Analysis

9. Modification of Precipitation

Problems

References

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 Colorado State University
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
CE 322

Precipitation
by Jose D. Salas

Precipitation is one of the most important components of the hydrologic cycle. It is the
beginning of a whole chain of events that occurs in watersheds and river basins. Precipitation is
the source of water that replenishes soil moisture, streamflows, lakes, glaciers, etc. In this
chapter we study the typical forms of precipitation, how precipitation is formed, the general
characteristics of storm types, how precipitation is measured, temporal and spatial variability of
precipitation, the estimation of mean precipitation over an area, the estimation of missing
precipitation data, consistency analysis of precipitation data, and modification of precipitation.

1. Types of Precipitation
Precipitation is all forms of moisture emanating from the clouds and falling to earth. Typical
examples are rainfall (rain), snowfall (snow), and hailstorm (hail). Rain is precipitation of liquid
water while snow and hail contain water in its solid state. Raindrops generally have sizes
bigger than 0.5 mm (0.02 in) in diameter. Rainfall is commonly reported as light, moderate, and
heavy depending on its intensity, e.g. i ≤ 2.5 mm / hr is light rain while i > 7.6 mm / hr is heavy
rain and moderate rain is in between. Snow is made up of ice crystals, which may reach several
cm in diameter. The average density (specific gravity) of snow if about 0.1, e.g. 1000 mm of
snow will produce 100 mm of liquid water on the average. Hail is precipitation in the form of
ice. Hail may have smooth or irregular shapes, size ranging from about 5 to over 125 mm in
diameter, and density of about 0.8. Other forms of precipitation are called drizzle, glaze, rime,
and sleet (Chow, 1964; check also Linsley et al). Drizzle is a fine sprinkle of numerous but very
small waterdrops, with diameter less than 0.02 in. (0.5 mm). The drops are so small that they
appear to float in the air. Glaze (or freezing rain) occurs when rain falls into a cold layer of air
and freezes when it strikes objects on the ground. Rime consists of white layers of ice crystals
and forms when the droplets of under-cooled clouds and fogs strike obstacles. Sleet is melting
snow or a mixture of snow and rain.
2. Formation of Precipitation
The presence of clouds in the atmosphere signals the conditions where precipitation may fall
from the sky. However, we often see clouds just above the sky and no precipitation occurs. We
will examine the physical mechanisms underlying the occurrence of precipitation.

The necessary conditions for the occurrence of precipitation are: (a) creation of saturation
conditions, (b) formation of water droplets or ice crystals, and (c) growth of water droplets or ice
crystals.
(a) Creation of saturation conditions. We know that as the air rises, the air temperature drops,
and eventually the air can become saturated. There are certain physical mechanisms for the
lifting of the air (and cooling of the air). Generally they are classified into three as shown below.

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• Cyclonic. It is the lifting of the air converging into a low pressure area. Frontal and non-
frontal cyclones are examples. Frontal cyclones are called extratropical because they
generally occur beyond the tropics while non-frontal cyclones generally occur in tropical
regions of the world. Examples of non-frontal cyclones are the hurricanes (typhoons). Other
names associated with the formation of non-frontal cyclones are:

- Tropical depressions: v < 40 mph

- Tropical storms: 40 ≤ v < 75 mph
- Hurricanes (typhoons): v ≥ 75 mph

A graphical sketch of frontal cyclones are shown below. The figure shows a warm front and
a cold front. In both cases warm air is lifted as the air mass pushes through the converging
boundary.

Warm air Warm air

Cold air
Cold air

Warm front Cold front

Fig.1

Likewise the sketch below shows a schematic of the air flow for non-frontal cyclones occurring
in the northern hemisphere.

Fig.2

• Convective. Lifting of the air is produced by uneven heating of the earth’s surface. Uneven
heating may occur because of different cover of the earth (vegetation, soils, etc.). Convective
cooling generally produces thunderstorms.

• Orographic. This may occur when the air flow is deflected upward by orographic barriers
such as mountains.

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 (a) Convective cooling (b) Orographic cooling

Fig.3

(b) Formation of Water Droplets or Ice Crystals

When the air is close to saturation it requires the presence of certain nuclei for water droplets
or ice crystals to form. Nuclei are small particles of various substances of the order of 0.1 – 10
µ m (10-6 m). They are called condensation nuclei when they lead to the formation of water
droplets and freezing nuclei when they lead to ice crystals.

nuclei • Condensation nuclei

- salt particles
- combustion products
- oxides of nitrogen

• freezing nuclei
- clay minerals
water droplet - CO2
or ice crystal
Fig. 4

(c) Growth of water droplets or ice crystals. Upon nucleation the water droplet or ice crystal
grows to visible size in a fraction of a second through diffusion of water vapor into it, but growth
thereafter is slow. Generally the growth of water droplets and ice crystals occur due to:

- diffusion of water vapor

- collision of droplets or ice crystals
- coalescence (molecular attraction of particles that are close to each other).

3. General Characteristics of Storm Types

We have seen in the previous section that air may become saturated because of various types
of cooling mechanisms. The type of cooling generally identifies the type of storm that may be
generated from them. They include: (a) Frontal cyclonic storms, (b) non-frontal cyclonic storms,
(c) convective storms, and (d) orographic storms. Often though a storm may be primarily
generated by a certain mechanism, e.g. a tropical cyclone, but at the same time may have the
effect of other cooling mechanisms that may further enhance the cooling process.

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 Some general characteristics of the four types of storms are summarized below.

(a) Storms caused by frontal cyclones (movement of extratropical cyclones generally at latitudes
of 35 to 50 degrees North)
• They generally cover large areas
• Low to moderate intensity
• Highest intensity associated with cold fronts because the steeper frontal surface gives a
stronger lift
• It travels in the direction west to east
• It travels with a speed of about 30 mph

(b) Storms caused by non-frontal cyclones (tropical cyclones)

• Cooling and lifting of the air caused by convergence in the central core.
• It originates with a weak disturbance along the thermal Equator
• The air movement towards disturbance is deflected by the Coriolis force which forms a
vortex.
• The water vapor from a warm ocean is condensed by rising air at the center
• The storm system generally moves westward due to the westerly wind system
• The storm system decays when reaching land because of the greater ground friction and
the fact that the moisture (energy) supply is cutoff .
• Also it dissipates when reaching colder oceans.
• They can be design storms for 1,000 to 2,000 sq.mi areas in coastal regions such as
southern and southeastern USA, Philippines, Taiwan, and Japan.

(c) Storms Caused by Thermal Convection (convective storms)

• Cooling and lifting caused by thermal heating at the ground
• Generally occurs in the afternoon and early evening after the earth has been thoroughly
heated by the sun.
• Typically covers small areas of the order of 5-10 sq-mi. although they may about 300
sq.mi.
• High intensity over a small area and a large spatial and temporal variation of intensity.
Sometimes accompanied by hail.
• They serve to construct design storms for small basins.

(d) Storms Caused by Orographic Lifting

• Cooling and condensation caused by lifting of the moist air mass over a topographic
divide.
• Precipitation is a function of elevation, rate of rise and direction or moist air movement.
• Generally widespread in a transverse direction along the orographic barrier.
• Moderate to low intensity.
• Duration of the storm persists as long as the moist air flow continues.
• Orographic patterns often superimposed on other types of storms (e.g. a hurricane
reaching an mountain range).

4. Measurement of Precipitation

4.1 Non-Recording and Recording Rain and Snow Gages

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 Traditionally precipitation has been measured by the so-called non-recording and recording
gages. Non-recording gages measure the total precipitation that falls at a given point during a
specified time interval ∆t. Generally precipitation readings are made on a daily basis although 6-
hr and 12-hr intervals are used sometimes. On the other hand, recording gages measure
precipitation in continuous time. This allows determining precipitation intensities from the paper
chart, i.e. i = ∆P/∆t where ∆P = amount of precipitation (typically inches, mm, or cm)
accumulated in the gage during the time interval ∆t (typically in minutes). Often precipitation
gages are installed connected with data collection platforms (DCP), which enables transmitting
data to satellites, which in turn relay the information to a receiver station at the site of interest.
Furthermore, during the past years advances in remote sensing technology has made it possible
to estimate precipitation by using radar signals (ref.).

Typical measurement equipment utilized in the United States includes the National Weather
Service (NWS) non-recording rain gage as shown in Fig.5 (b). It has a circular orifice with 8
inches in diameter and has 20 inches of capacity. It measures rain and snow with a resolution of
0.01 inches. Fig.5(b) also shows a rain and snow gage utilized by the US Forest Service, which
has 8.25 inches of diameter and capacity of 7 inches. Raingage shelters and screens are utilized
to protect the rain or snow catch from the wind. Fig. 5(c) shows an example of a rain gage wind
screen.

(a) (b) (c)

Fig.5 (a) NWS non-recording rain and snow gage, (b) US Forest Service rain and snow gage,
and (c) rain gage with Alter-type wind screen (???)
(source: http:/www.novalynx.com) ???? check with C. Fu)

4.2 Radar Measurement of Precipitation (check also Linsley)

Radar is the acronym utilized for Radio-Detection-And-Ranging. It was developed during

the World War II for detecting ships and aircrafts. Radar based techniques have been used for
atmospheric observations in the United States since 1954. The current operating weather radar
system in the US is the WSR-88D (Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler) system that
consists of 158 NEXRAD (Next Generation Radar) sites across the U.S. (National Research
Council, 2002, CoCoHaHS, 2005). Radars can be utilized from airplanes and satellites.
NEXRAD are ground-based radars.

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 Radars detect objects in the atmosphere by sending out radio waves and then receiving the
returning signals reflected from the objects. The returning signal is known as the reflectivity
factor (Z). The values of Z can reveal the forms of precipitation. For example, the Z value for
fog is 0.001 while for hail is 50,000,000. The value of Z in the logarithmic domain, i.e.
dBZ = 10 × log10 ( Z ) are utilized to display the precipitation signals on radar screens. To
estimate the amount of precipitation from the radar signal, the so-called “Z-R” relationship given
by

Z = A× RB

is employed where Z is the reflectivity factor, R is the rainfall rate, and A and B are parameters
that are determined by assuming the rain drop size distribution. (????) The U.S. National
Weather Service uses

Z = 300 × R1.4
or
(1 / 1.4 )
⎛ Z ⎞
R=⎜ ⎟
⎝ 300 ⎠

for all the NEXRAD radar data in the U.S. (CoCoHaHS, 2005). Fig. 7 shows a picture of the
NWS NEXRAD.

(a) (b)
Fig. 7 (a) Outside view of a NWS NEXRAD radar, and (b) inside the radome view of a NWS
NEXRAD radar (source: http://www.letxa.com/nexradtour.php)

5. Temporal and Spatial Variability of Precipitation

Precipitation data are generally highly variable in space and time depending on several
factors. First of all, the temporal variability of precipitation depends on the time scale. If we
measure the temporal variability by the coefficient of variation (Cv=S/m, i.e. standard deviation
over the mean) one would expect that Cv decreases as the time step increases. For example, Fig.
8(a) shows a plot of the daily precipitation for …… Likewise, Figs. 8(b) and (c) show the
corresponding plots for the monthly and annual precipitation data. And the values of Cv are
respectively xx, yy, and zz. An important aspect of the temporal variability of precipitation is
the effect of the so-called seasonality. This term reflects the effect of the annual revolution of
the earth around the sun on a yearly basis (annual cycle). This causes the precipitation to be
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smaller during certain months of the year than during other months resulting in what is known as
the dry and the wet periods. Figure 9 shows clearly the seasonality of precipitation for various
locations of the United States. In addition, another feature of the temporal variability of
precipitation pertains to the daily cycle that is exhibited in short-term precipitation such as hourly
especially in mid-latitudes (reference). Furthermore, the variability of precipitation at all time
scales is affected by the so-called low frequency, which means that precipitation statistics may
evolve and change throughout time spans of several decades (e.g. refer to Gray et al to West
Africa rainfall, etc.).

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 Precipitation, in inches
16

Precipitation, in inches
6.0
12
4.5
8
3.0
4
1.5
0
1 3 5 7 9 11 0.0
Month 1 3 5 7 9 11
Month

Precipitation, in inches
10
8
6
4
2
0
Precipitation, in inches

1.6
1 3 5 7 9 11
1.2 Month
0.8

0.4

0.0
Precipitation, in inches

1 3 5 7 9 11 3.2

Precipitation, in inches
Month 8
2.4
6
1.6
4
0.8
2
0.0
1 3 5 7 9 11 0
Month 1 3 5 7 9 11
Month

Fig. 9 Map of the mean monthly precipitation at some climatic divisions of the states of Florida, Vermont, Arkansas, Colorado, Arizona,
and Washington, United States.

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Fig. 10. Mean annual precipitation (inches) based on normal period 1961-1990
(source: NCDC website at http://www5.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/script/webcat.pl)

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6. Estimating Mean Precipitation Over an Area

• Arithmetic mean
• Thiessen polygons
• Isohyetal method
• Statistical spatial analysis techniques

7. Estimating Missing Precipitation Data

7.3 Causes of Missing Data

It is common to find in actual practice that precipitation data may be missing from the set of
records. There are several reasons why precipitation data may be missing from the database.
Some of them are listed below.

• Malfunctioning of precipitation gage and/or related equipment

• Effect of natural hazards (floods, landslides, hurricanes, etc.)
• Sabotage (terrorism)
• Human related problems (temporary absence of people in charge of reading gages,
mistakes in handling data, etc.)
• Others

7.4 Methods for Estimating Missing Data

Several methods are available for estimating missing precipitation data. Some methods are
quite simple but others are more involved requiring some expertise in statistical analysis, time
series analysis, neural networks, spatial analysis, etc. The type of methods to apply fore a
particular case depend whether the missing data are temporal or spatial data. The method to
apply for temporal data depends on the temporal resolution (e.g. annual, monthly, daily, hourly,
etc.) and the length (amount) of missing data. Also the applicability of certain methods (e.g.
methods based on time series analysis) depends on the available record length. The methods that
we are going to discuss in this section are rather simple. Also note that for certain type of
problems involving missing data in space the methods that we have discussed preciously for
estimating mean precipitation over an area may be applicable and useful.

• Arithmetic mean
• Normal ratio method
• Inverse distance method
• Correlation and regression
• Others

(a) Arithmetic mean

This method may be applied when the normal annual precipitation at the site of interest (site
with the missing record) is within 10% of the normal annual precipitation at other sites where
concurrent data are available. (need further comments on: typical uses of this method, - for
example for preliminary studies -, reliability of the method, etc.)
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(b) Normal ratio method
Assume that we have gaging stations A, B, C, and Y where the normal annual precipitation
NP(A), NP(B), NP(C), and NP(Y) are available. Also assume that on a given rainy day t, the
precipitation at gage Y is missing. We would like to estimate Pt(Y) based on the gage readings at
the other sites. The formula used is:

1 ⎧ NP (Y ) NP (Y ) NP (Y ) ⎫
Pt (Y ) = ⎨ Pt ( A) + Pt ( B) + Pt (C )⎬ (1)
3 ⎩ NP ( A) NP ( B) NP (C ) ⎭
where Pt(Z) = precipitation at gage Z during the day t. This is a better method than the arithmetic
one and is usually applied when the normal annual precipitation at the site with the missing
record differs by more than 10% of the normal annual precipitation at the other sites where the
concurrent data are available. Note that the method has been described assuming daily data,
however it is also applicable for any type of data such as weekly, monthly, etc. Also it is
applicable for any type of hydrometeorological data such as temperature, pan evaporation, etc.
(need further comments on: the cases where there may be fewer than 3 sites, say 2 sites, about
normal values, etc.)
Example 1: Assume that the following data are available:
Pt(A) = 98 mm, NP(A) = 1,008 mm
Pt(B) = 80 mm, NP(B) = 842 mm
Pt(Y) = ? NP(Y) = 880 mm
Applying the normal ratio method to the available data we have:

1 ⎧ 880 880 ⎫
Pt (Y ) = ⎨ 98 + 80⎬ = 84.6 mm
2 ⎩1,008 842 ⎭

(c) Inverse Distance Method

Referring to the sketch below let us define the following information:
dZ = distance between gage Y and Z, where Z =A, B, etc.
Pt(Z) = precipitation at gage Z during time t, where Z =A, B, etc.
Pt(Y) = missing precipitation at gage Y

A B

dA dB

Y
dD dC
D C

Fig. 5

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The estimated missing precipitation at site Y by the inverse distance method is:
2 2 2 2
⎛ 1 ⎞ ⎛ 1 ⎞ ⎛ 1 ⎞ ⎛ 1 ⎞
⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ Pt ( A) + ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ Pt ( B ) + ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ Pt (C ) + ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ Pt ( D)
Pt (Y ) = ⎝ A ⎠ ⎝ B⎠ ⎝ C⎠ ⎝ D⎠
d d d d
2 2 2 2
(2)
⎛ 1 ⎞ ⎛ 1 ⎞ ⎛ 1 ⎞ ⎛ 1 ⎞
⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ + ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ + ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ + ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟
⎝ dA ⎠ ⎝ dB ⎠ ⎝ dC ⎠ ⎝ dD ⎠
Note that Eq.(2) uses the squares of the inverse distances, however other power exponents have
been suggested (refs.)

Example 2: Assume that three gages A, B, and Y are available. The data for gage Y is
missing. Given that the following data are available,
Pt(A) = 98 mm, Pt(B) = 80 mm, Pt(Y) = ?
dA = 2 Km dB = 3 Km
We would like to estimate the missing data at Y by using the inverse distance method.
Applying Eq. (2) for the available data we have:
2 2 2 2
⎛ 1 ⎞ ⎛ 1 ⎞ ⎛1⎞ ⎛1⎞
⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ Pt ( A) + ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ Pt ( B) ⎜ ⎟ 98 + ⎜ ⎟ 80
Pt (Y ) = ⎝ A ⎠
d ⎝ dB ⎠ = ⎝ 2⎠ ⎝ 3⎠ = 92.5 mm
2 2 2 2
⎛ 1 ⎞ ⎛ 1 ⎞ ⎛1⎞ ⎛1⎞
⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ + ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ ⎜ ⎟ +⎜ ⎟
⎝ dA ⎠ ⎝ dB ⎠ ⎝ 2⎠ ⎝ 3⎠

(d) Method based on regression analysis

Assume that two precipitation gages Y and X have long records of annual precipitation, i.e.
Y1 , Y2 , ..., YN and X 1 , X 2 , ..., X N . The precipitation Yt is missing. We will fill in the missing data
based on a simple linear regression model. The model can be written as:
Yt = a + b X t (3)

in which the parameters a and b can be estimated by:

aˆ = Y − bˆ X (4)

ˆ S Y*
b = rXY * (5)
SX

where Y and X are the sample means, S Y* and S X* are the sample unbiased standard deviations
of Y and X, respectively, and rXY is the cross-correlation coefficient between X and Y. The
latter term can be estimated as:
1 N
∑ [( X t − X )(Yt − Y )]
N i =1
rXY = (6)
S X SY

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where S Y and S X are the sample biased standard deviations (add comments regarding: the
limitation of the method, not enough data, degree of correlation, sample size, etc.)

Example 3. The annual precipitation data for two sites are shown in the table below. The
record for year 1971 (i.e. Y11) is missing. We would like to complete the record by using the
simple linear regression method. We will use Eq.(3) to estimate the missing observation
based on the concurrent record Xt.

Year t Xt Yt
Equation (6) is applied to calculate the
1961 1 10.2 6.1 cross-correlation coefficient using the
1962 2 8.5 9.5 concurrent data 1961-1970. It gives
1963 3 2.8 1.8 rxy= 0.751. Then, from Eqs.(5) and (4)
1964 4 5.4 6.0 we get respectively:
1965 5 15.2 9.5
bˆ = (0.75 × 3.313) / 3.874 = 0.642
1966 6 10.1 5.3
1967 7 9.2 2.3 aˆ = 6.28 − 0.642 × 9.39 = 0.249
1968 8 14.8 11.6 The missing data is obtained from (3)
1969 9 11.1 7.7 which gives:
1970 10 6.6 3.0 Y11 = 0.249 + 0.642 × 3.3 = 2.37
1971 11 3.3 The fitted regression line and the
Means: 9.39 6.28 scatter plot are shown on the figure
Biased stand. dev. S 3.675 3.143 below.
Unbiased stand. dev. S* 3.874 3.313

14
Precipitation at station Y

12

10

0
0 5 10 15 20
Precipitation at station X

Fig.6
8. Consistency Analysis of Precipitation Data

8.1 Inconsistent Data

The precipitation measured at a given gage Y is inconsistent with that measured at another
gage X when the time series pattern of Y and related statistics (e.g. the mean) are different than
14
those of X. Conversely, analyzing the consistency of data at Y is meant in relation to another data
set, e.g. X, i.e. consistency analysis is testing that the time series pattern and/or statistical
characteristics of Y are similar to those of X. It is assumed that the time series Xt is reliable and
its pattern and statistics are a true representation of the natural variability that is expected at the
site. Consider the two cases shown in the figure below. In Fig.(a) precipitation series Yt appears
to be inconsistent (relative to X) because its time series pattern is markedly different than that of
Xt . On the other hand series Yt in Fig.(b) appears to be consistent with series Xt.

Yt Yt

t t
Xt Xt

t
t

Fig.7 (a) Fig.7 (b)

One may like to test the consistency of the data Yt when there is some evidence that the data
are not be reliable, the data may have been subjected to systematic (non-random) errors, the
equipment (gage) in recent years may be significantly different than that used in previous years,
or the gage may have been moved in recent years to another location. The time series plot of the
suspected series compared to other series in the study area (as shown in Figs. a and b) may
suggest a possible inconsistency. Generally though exhaustive graphical and statistical
procedures must be followed.
8.2 Methods of Consistency Analysis
One may like to test the hypothesis that a given data set is consistent. Rejection of this
hypothesis will imply that the data are inconsistent and accordingly one must adjust the records.
Conversely, non-rejection of the hypothesis will imply that the data set is consistent and no
adjustment is necessary. There are a number of methods and procedures that can be utilized for
testing the consistency hypothesis of a given data set. Some of them are simple graphical
procedures while others are statistically based. Sometimes both graphical and statistical
procedures can be combined. Among the graphical procedures the so-called double mass method
is the traditional one and perhaps the most widely used in practice. (comment on the effect of
outliers on the double mass)
(a) Double mass method. This is essentially a simple graphical method but statistical concepts
and tests can be also utilized. Let us assume that we wish to check whether the data
y1 , y 2 , ..., y N (N= sample size) are consistent data or not. For this purpose we will use
another data set x1 , x 2 , ..., x N , which is known to be reliable. The latter data set could be data
measured at another gage or more generally the average of the data records available at

15
 several sites located in the same region as the suspected gage y. We will define the
cumulative partial sums as
S t ( y ) = S t −1 ( y ) + y t , t = 1,2,..., N (7a)

S t ( x) = S t −1 ( x) + xt , t = 1,2,..., N (7b)

in which S 0 ( x) = S 0 ( y ) = 0 . Thus we have two sequences of partial sums, namely:

S1 ( y ), S 2 ( y ),..., S N ( y ) , and S1 ( x), S 2 ( x),..., S N ( x) . The double mass plot is constructed as
shown in the sketch below.

St(y)
s2 St(y)
s1

St(x) St(x)

Fig. 8(a) Fig.8 (b)

Figure 8(a) reflects the inconsistency shown in Fig.7(a) while Fig.8(b) reflects that series yt
in Fig.7(b) has a pattern consistent with that of series xt. Referring to Fig.8(a) the point where
the slope changes from s1 to s2 marks the time where the inconsistency occurs. Therefore part of
the record of y must be adjusted. Which part of the record must be adjusted (before the break
point or after) depends on the particular case. For example, if the inconsistency in y has occurred
because the gage was moved from the original location to another location (the current location),
then it is logical to adjust the record before the break point. It may be shown that the first part of
the record may be adjusted by y t′ = ( s 2 / s1 ) y t . On the other hand, if the second part of the
record is needed to be adjusted use instead y t′ = ( s1 / s 2 ) y t . (show in Fig.8 a schematic about the
effect of outliers).

Example 4. The precipitation for a certain basin has been recorded for several years at 5
gages. The data at one of the gages (site Y) is suspected to be inconsistent relative to that at
the other four sites. The table below shows data for Y and the average data for the other four
sites (called X). (a) Analyze the consistency of the data at Y by the double mass method. (b)
Adjust the data of the earlier years at Y (so that they are consistent with those of recent
years).

Equations (7a) and (7b) are applied to obtain the cumulative sums St(y) and St(x). The values
are shown in columns 4 and 5 of the table (shown below), respectively. They are plotted as
shown in Fig. 9. The figure shows that there is a break in the slope at year 1983. Therefore
we will need to adjust the precipitation values for the gage for the year 1979-1982. For
example, for year 1979 the adjusted precipitation becomes:
′ = (1.035 / 0.763) × 668 = 906. The rest of the adjusted values are shown with an asterisk
y1979
in the table below.

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 Year Gage yt Average of St(y) St(x) Adjusted
4 gages xt gage y t′
0 0
1979 668 780 668 780 906*
1980 570 762 1238 1542 773*
1981 681 878 1919 2420 923*
1982 601 754 2520 3174 815*
1983 483 761 3003 3935 483
1984 1186 1056 4189 4991 1186
1985 940 887 5129 5878 940
1986 616 656 5745 6534 616
1987 950 791 6695 7325 950
1988 773 840 7468 8165 773
1989 646 706 8114 8871 646

10000
Cumulative sum of y

8000

6000

4000

2000

0
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000

Cumulative sum of x

Fig.9

(b) Statistical tests. A number of statistical tests can be applied for consistency analysis of
precipitation data. In fact, the double mass method as described above can be used in
conjunction with a statistical method. For example one could test whether the slope s2 is
different than the slope s1. Other tests that can be applied include the t-test, F-test, and a number
of non-parametric tests (refs.)

9. Modification of Precipitation

17
Problems

1. Annual precipitation data for two sites y and x for the period 1979-1989 are shown in the table
below. You may observe that the data of 1983 for y is missing. Use the simple linear regression
method to fill in such missing value.

Year Gage yt Average of Year Gage yt Average of

4 gages xt 4 gages xt
1979 668 780 1985 940 887
1980 570 762 1986 616 656
1981 681 878 1987 950 791
1982 601 754 1988 773 840
1983 761 1989 646 706
1984 1186 1056

2. Put a similar example as # 4 but adjustment on after the break (see Ex. #1)

3. Same as Ex. #1 but use arithmetic method and compare w/normal ratio. For normal ratio add
another station.
4. Same as Ex. #2 but add another point.
5. Provide a modification of Ex.#4 to include an outlier.
6. The precipitation data of a certain basin have been recorded for several years at 5
precipitation gages. The data at one of the gages (site Y) is suspected to be inconsistent
relative to that at the other four sites. The table below shows data for Y and the average of
the data for the other four sites (called X).
(a) Analyze the consistency of the data at Y by the double mass method.
(b) Adjust the data of the earlier years at Y (so that they are consistent with those of recent
years).
(c) You may observe that the data of 1989 for Y is missing. Use the simple linear regression
method to fill in such missing value.
Year Gage Average of SY SX
Y 4 gages X
1979 668 780
1980 570 762
1981 681 878
1982 601 754
1983 483 761
1984 1186 1056
1985 940 887
1986 616 656
1987 950 791
1988 773 840
1989 missing 706

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7. Explain how precipitation occurs, i.e. how it is formed and what are the key factors involved.

8. For the precipitation networks shown below draw the corresponding Thiessen polygons.

• •

xx
•

• • • •

9. The precipitation at gages A and B are 4 and 6 inches, respectively. For the case shown in
the graph below estimate the missing precipitation at site C. The distances between sites are
given. Note that the method to apply in this case is the quadrant method (inverse distance),
which requires estimating weights as a function of distance. The weights can be determined
by:

1
d2
ωi = p i , p = number of points utilized
⎛ 1⎞
∑j =1 ⎜⎝ d 2 ⎟⎠
j

A 10 mi B

6 mi 8 mi

10. A parcel of air at 800 mb pressure has a temperature of 9 EC and 80% of relative humidity.
Calculate the specific humidity of the pocket of air.

11. Compute the mean annual precipitation for the watershed shown below by using the
arithmetic, Thiessen polygons and isohyetal methods. (V. Singh)

19
 • 80 • 65

60 •
•100

• 106
• 108

• 105
64 •

• 90
90 • • 70

75 •
• 38

12. Do Problem 2.6 of the textbook (p.38).

13. Precipitation station X was inoperative for part of a month during which a storm occurred.
The respective storm totals at three surrounding stations A, B, and C were 98, 80, and 110
mm. The normal annual precipitation amounts at stations X, A, B, and C are respectively
880, 1008, 842, and 1080 mm. Estimate the storm precipitation for station X.

14. The annual precipitation at station X and the average annual precipitation at 15 surrounding
stations are as shown in the table below. Data for Station X is suspected to be inconsistent
while data for the other fifteen stations appear to be reliable. (a) Check the consistency of the
data at X by using the data at the other fifteen stations. (b) In what year a change in regime
occurs? (c) Adjust the records of site X assuming that the change in regime occurred because
the gaging station was moved to a new location. (d) Compare the mean and the standard
deviation of the original record versus those for the record after adjustment. Is there any
significant difference?

Year Station X Average for 15

Stations
1950 47 29

1951 24 21

1952 42 36

20
1953 27 26

1954 25 23

1955 35 30

1956 29 26

1957 36 26

1958 37 26

1959 35 28

1960 58 40

1961 41 26

1962 34 24

1963 20 22

1964 26 25

1965 36 34

1966 35 28

1967 28 23

1968 29 33

1969 32 33

1970 39 35

1971 25 26

1972 30 29

1973 23 28

1974 37 34

1975 34 33

1976 30 35

1977 28 26

1978 27 25

1979 34 35

15. For the precipitation networks shown below draw the corresponding Thiessen polygons.

21
16. The precipitation for a certain basin has been recorded for several years at 5 gages. The data
at one of the gages (site Y) is suspected to be inconsistent relative to that at the other four
sites. The table below shows data for Y and the average data for the other four sites (called
X). (a) Analyze the consistency of the data at Y by the double mass method. (b) If the data Y
is inconsistent adjust the data of the later years at Y (so that they are consistent with those of
earlier years).

The adjustment can be done by

y t′ = r y t where r = ratio of the two slopes

Year Gage yt Average of

4 gages xt

1979 670 780

1980 570 760
1981 680 880
1982 600 750
1983 480 760
1984 1200 1100
1985 980 890
1986 680 650
1987 990 790

References

Chow, Ven Te, 1964, Handbook of Applied Hydrology: A Compendium of Water-resources

Technology, McGraw – Hill Book Company.

CoCoHaHS, 2005, Weather Radar Basics, http://www.cocorahs.org/media/docs/radar_basics.pdf

22
Collier, Christopher G., 1996, Applications of Weather Radar System: A Guide to Uses of Radar
Data in Meteorology and Hydrology, second edition, John Wiley & Sons.

Linsley et al, 1986

National Research Council, 2002, Weather Radar Technology-Beyond NEXRAD, National

Academy Press, Washington D.C.

Tabios, G. and Salas, J.D., 1985.

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