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Effectiveness of lockdown policies on reducing Covid-19 mortality

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Effectiveness of lockdown policies on reducing Covid-19 mortality

INTRODUCTION

Covid-19 was a threat to many countries that made them impose the policy of Lockdown

in various places to reduce the distribution of the disease across the country. Places with a higher

number of people infected with the disease had a higher mortality rate than the others. Therefore

the countries decided to impose policies of Lockdown to reduce the distribution of the disease.

Covid-19 is perceived as an infective disease resulting from SARS-CoV-2 and has been declared

a worldwide public health emergency (Silva et al., 2020). By 29 May 2021, the disease has been

able to affect people in the world. Ten million people tested positive for the disease, and it has

caused the death of about 3.5 million people in all of the world. Various governments have

implemented similar strict policies and other closure policies to manage the pandemic to control

virus spread across various countries.

The restrictive community strategies that limit access to various institutions, facilities,

and even resources have been renamed "lockdown" strategies in various countries such as

Europe, America, and Asia. The countries came up with herd behavior in response to the Covid-

19, meaning they could apply various curbing strategies. However, the effectiveness of the

strategies employed has been different in various countries. The previous studies portrayed that

the strategies that implemented in some of the countries such as China and South Korea have

been able to reduce the cases by more than 90%, which seems to be not the case in most of the

countries which include Spain, United States and Italy (Papadopoulos et al., 2020). The social

distance strategy effectiveness was evidenced in Germany, Turkey, and Italy, but there is no

clear data in the United States and the United Kingdom.

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Therefore, the public community needs the administration to embrace comparative and

the international perspective concerning the Covid-19 pandemic to show how the governments

have responded to the crisis, learn various lessons from the most successful governments, and

advance the management of the pandemic crisis (Ng, 2020). Unfortunately, to the moment and

currently, the condition is still uncertain, even though the Covid-19 vaccine is being used at full

throttle to the campaigns of vaccination

; this paper has the intention of assessing the effectiveness of lockdown policies related to

the Covid-19 pandemic. Monitor distribution of virus and change dynamics of infection within

the years with an event of case resurgence, which has already been implemented in China,

Australia, Germany, and the United States-based to the real-time responses of the government

and monitoring of data. Therefore, in this analysis, various waves of the pandemic and the

characteristics of various countries are discussed (Meo et al., 2020). This comparative analysis

aims to give out significant lessons to be learned from various experiences of different countries.

Although the virus future is not known presently, the countries should continue sharing of there

experiences, minimize transmission so that lives can be saved, and shield various populations.

Oxford Covid-19 Government Response Tracker .was employed in the assessment, which

has also been widely used during the pandemic when measuring the policies. Our main focus is

on the closure and containment, including workplace closure, school closing, cancellation of

public events, various hinders on the size of the gathering, closure of the public transport,

requirements of stay-at-home, internal movement, and international travel restrictions (Liang et

al., 2020). Since the vaccination program has been well established in early 2021, there are

various hopes for the gradual return to normal interactions. However, the disease in various

forms brings about an ongoing threat. Therefore, it is more significant to learn from the lessons
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and knowledge generated in the period of Lockdown to attain a better public policy so that it can

enhance effective and more resilient public health services.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

The current observation was done in the physiology department, Medicine College, King

Said University during the May-July2020 period. Trends data in mortality prevalence due to the

outbreak of Covid-19 is needed from the World Health Organization. Therefore, daily reports

concerning Covid-19 provided by World Health Organization were keenly followed and

information collected (Alon et al., 2020). The data of Lockdown were derived from various

countries concerned together with ministries concerned, the country's population is generated

from the global bank. Twenty-eight countries are randomly selected from various continents.

Data obtained from the mortality prevalence trends due to the outbreak of Covid-19 in the

twenty-eight nations is found in the World Health Organization. The data of Lockdown were

obtained from various countries together with their organizations allied.

The factor of growth is defined as the situation in which the proportion can multiply itself

with time; it is equal to the daily reports divided by the following day reports. More than 1.0

growth factor indicates an increase in prevalence pattern, whereas the values that are less than

1.0 reveals a reducing pattern. This figure is the same as the vehicles driving forward velocity

and negatively portrays that the vehicle is driving backward. Each day's growth factor is defined

as the growth factor that differs from one day to another (Alvarez et al., 2020). A positive growth

factor portrays a growth that is exponential in various causes. The negative factor of growth in a

day portrays a decay if exponential in the emergence of the news reports. This figure is the same

as the vehicle acceleration, where; positive refers that the vehicle is gradually accelerating. There

is an increase in its velocity more in the period and negatively portrays that it is retardation.
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Thus, there is a decrease in its velocity more in each period. A negative rate of growth in a day

refers that the epidemic is arriving in control. In this situation, figures of new cases reduce, and it

moves toward the absence of new cases each day.

The information was keenly obtained and eventually evaluated because the problem has

been progressively moving, with the figures changing each day. As a result, I have been able to

analyze the consequences of Lockdown on the mortality and prevalence related to the outbreak

of Covid-19 in 28 nations by making a relationship between the figures, about 15 days early,

during, and finally 15 days past the lockdown period end (Alvarez et al., 2020).

Table 1 retrieved from Alvarez et al., 2020

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Table 2 retrieved from Alvarez et al., 2020

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Table 3 retrieved from Alvarez et al., 2020

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
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The information was documented and evaluated, and findings are shown in percentages

and numbers.SEM and mean of the mortality and prevalence cases were evaluated. Quantity is

multiplied with time, the daily reports are divided by the case in the past day and evaluated. A

value of <0.05 is considered more important (Alvarez et al., 2020).

FINDINGS

The global cases number and death that has been caused as a result of Covid-19 is shown

in table 1. Consequences of Lockdown to trends if epidemiological is shown in Tables 2 and 3.

The tables have the mean figure of the reports concerning death numbers, 15 days past, 15 days

during, and 15 days post a lockdown imposed in the 28 nations, and the formed correlation (Meo

et al., 2020). Globally, infection if Covid-19 has involved about 216 territories and countries, and

it has been able to cause infection to people averaging 10, 533,038 with a rate of mortality of

512,842 equivalent to 4.68% as shown in table 1during the period of 29 December 2019 to 02

July 2020 as evidenced in Table 1 (Meo et al., 2020). majority of cases of coronavirus were

reported from the region of American. If about 5,317,792, which is a percentage of 50.48%,

European region estimating 2,747,810, which is a percentage of 26.08%, the Eastern

Mediterranean region having about 1,096,565 a percentage of 10.41%, the South-East Asia

region having 833,735 a percentage of 7.91%, the African region 318,432 a percentage of 3.02%

together with the Western Pacific Region having 218,704 a percentage of 2.07% as presented in

the table

Per results of Lockdown mortal and prevalence of the outbreak of pandemic in 28

nations, In 15 days post-Lockdown, there was no fall in prevalence mean together with mean

figures of the daily deaths related to the Covid-19 compared to the 15 days before and the 15

days during Lockdown, as shown in table 2 and 3. The rate of growth in a number of the new
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cases related to the pandemic daily is shown in figure 1. Also, the growth rate in the figures of

deaths every day, as shown in figure 2 related to the Covid-19, shows a significant but falling

trend in 15 days post time of Lockdown in many countries taken as sampled(Meo et al., 2020).

This information portrayed a negative growth factor each day in the 15 days accompanying

Lockdown for other daily reports and the mortality. Each day's growth factor attributes to new

reports, and the mortality for every nation is shown in Figures 1 and 2. Each day, growth rate and

growth rate are portrayed first as the alternative between the two different period times: before

Lockdown versus Lockdown and the second, which is between two different moments:

Lockdown versus after Lockdown (Alvarez et al., 2020). Together with the figures, the table

clearly shows the period of post-lockdown, a reducing change rate every day for many of the 28

individual nations and the whole 28 county cohort.

Regarding, prevalence mean of cases of Covid-19 15 days before, the 15 actual, and the

15 days past Lockdown, I can find that the mean numbers of the reports in all 28 nations

increased. Therefore, none of the important results of the Lockdown on Covid-19 cases

prevalence’s, as shown in tables 2 and 3 (Alvarez et al., 2020). We can quantify the growth rate

for the number of reports every day, which is 1.18, and the death rate is 1.16. It is also found that

the 15 days post-Lockdown if the figure of the new everyday report was increased and shooting

of everyday mortality in countries selected globally reduced past the Lockdown.

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Figure 1 retrieved from Meo et al., 2020

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Figure 2 retrieved from Meo et al., 2020

DISCUSSION

The pandemic of Covid-19 is a starting global health difficulty that has infected millions

of individuals worldwide. The lockdown strategy got associated with the asymptomatic period of

the Covid-19. Portrayed as a medial of about five days and may go up to about 14 days. The

policies of Lockdown have been employed in various nations to minimize the Covid-19 spread

(Alvarez et al., 2020). However, for a specific medication to be prosperous at maintaining the

disease under management must first result in the growth rate each day becoming poor. The
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growth rate to growth rate each day is a significant fall to about 1.0 and below. That could show

decay is exponential in the cases figure.

In this case, we examined the consequences of 15 days pre, 15 days when, and another 15

days post Lockdown related to epidemiological trends in the mortality and prevalence due to the

emergency of Covid-19. We found out that the 15 days post the international Lockdown, a

significant observable decrease in the mortality mean and prevalence related to Covid-19 being

associated to 15 days pre and the 15 days when the Lockdown in the 28 nations (Alvarez et al.,

2020). Moreover, the day by day Covid-19 reports and the rates of growth portrayed a reducing

trend by the end of 15 days after the period of Lockdown, resulting in a critically significant

negative rate of growth each day by the end of the moment of Lockdown for the new day by day

reports and the number of mortality. This negative rate of growth each day in the two different

situations showed that the lockdown policy had an important effect on the pandemic from public

health. Nevertheless, the rate of growth has not fallen under 1.0 at the moment concerning the

Lockdown. Hence, Lockdown is not more appropriate to stop the spread of the disease; it is

usually brought out by the international repeating and growing global mortality rate. Ideally, this

has resulted in nations having other lockdowns and encouraging them to isolate themselves in

various of their houses.

The new review of Lockdown portrayed that the kind of strategy has a significant impact

in declining the mortality and incidence of Covid-19 in the present situation. Therefore, this

discussion recommends Lockdown can be employed in the early situations to hinder the spread

of Covid-19 along with public health procedures. The study has been able to show various

evidence that the measures of Lockdown are beneficial. Quarantine of people exposed to

suspected, confirmed areas hindering 44% to 81% of the recent cases and about 31% to 64% of
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the deaths. Again, compared to the absence of any of the measures of Lockdown (Alvarez et al.,

2020). Thus, Lockdown proves to be helpful in the control of the spread of Covid-19.

Furthermore, Lockdown can play an important role when the immunization and the treatment if

prophylactic are not possible, as has been the case of the Covid-19 disease.

Countries, there was a significant consequence of the Lockdown in minimizing the

various incidence of SARS-COV-2, which may result in the death of individuals. However, in

most countries, mostly in those coming up, a long-term policy of Lockdown was not most

appropriate because it has a variety of psychological, economic, and social impacts (Alvarez et

al., 2020). Therefore, the future policy of Lockdown should follow the optimizing behavior such

as wearing of mask and keeping of social distance associated with the cultural and social

situations that may affect reducing the pandemic of Covid-19. Lockdown only cannot be

efficient if the population cannot follow the policy.

CONCLUSION

The current studies results portray that 15days after the occurrence of Lockdown, there is

no important reduction in the mortality rate mean and the prevalence means due to the novel

coronavirus compared to the 15-day pre lockdown, the 15 days in the moment of Lockdown in

the 28 countries. Besides, the daily reports of SARS-COV-2 individuals and the results of a

factor of growth and the rate of growth each day reduced to a more attractive negative level in

the report of the growth rate each day about 15 days post the moment of Lockdown. Therefore,

these two infection spreading metrics did not reduce to control the pandemic (Alvarez et al.,

2020). These results can be important for the people making decisions who are forming other

lockdowns to curb the Covid-19 pandemic diversity. Therefore, the policies of the future of

Lockdown should follow the optimizing character such as wearing a mask, keeping social
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distance. And the other cultural factors can influence the spreading of the Covid-19 disease

because the Lockdown cannot be appropriate if the people cannot follow the policy.
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