PROJECT 1:

“AN ANALYSIS ON COIN FLIPPING THROUGH EMPIRICAL

AND THEORETICAL PROBABILITY”

TINIGUIBAN HEIGHTS MAIN CAMPUS

ACADEMIC YEAR 2019-2020

An Experimental Study

Presented to

Ma’am Therese Ann Villarosa-Bobis

Palawan State University

Laboratory Senior High School

In Partial Completion of the Requirements for

STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY UNDER SECOND SEMESTER

by

Cudio, Maruel Elpred Vincent

Delcoro, Jofli Asaph
Echague, Ramon Cristoper
Quillope, Zyrenne
Resuma, Karl Vincent
Son, Al-Shuaib

March 2020
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LABORATORY SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL
SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, ENGINEERING, AND MATHEMATICS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Title Page i

Table of Contents ii

List of Tables iii

List of Figures iii

I. INTRODUCTION

A. Statement of the Task 1

B. Plan of Investigation 2

II. INFORMATION/MEASUREMENTS

A. Data Gathering Procedure 3

B. Data Instruments 3

C. Data Organization 3

D. Analysis of Data 3

E. Mathematical Processes 5

III. PRESENTATION OF DATA

A. Empirical Probability 6

B. Theoretical Probability 7

C. Summary of Results 9

IV. CONCLUSION

A. Validity 11

B. Recommendations and Conclusion 11

Appendices

A. Record Sheet for Data Gathering 12

B. Visual Representation of BSP-Standardized New Generation 1-Peso Coin 14

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LIST OF TABLES

IID.1 Probability Distribution Table of the Data Obtained from the Experiment 4

IIIB.1 Analysis of Probability Distribution via Theoretical Probability 7

IIIC.1 Summary of Values and Computations obtained from the Experiment 9

LIST OF FIGURES

IID.1 Histogram Representation of Frequency Distribution (from the Experiment) 5

IID.2 Probability Distribution of Flipping a Head (from the Experiment) 5

IIIB.1 Probability Distribution of Flipping a Head via Theoretical Probability 8

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I. INTRODUCTION

A. Statement of the Task

The researchers conducted a Probability Experiment on 50 participants by simply tasking said

participants to toss a coin 10 times. The researchers recorded the number of heads each participant
flips during the experiment. When the data was gathered, it was tabulated and analyzed in such a
way that it was processed by using other concepts of probability to point towards a conclusion and
to answer the following guide questions:

1) How do you define the Variable X?

2) Which values of X occurred most frequently?
3) What does the Relative Frequency Column sum up to?
4) On average, how many heads would you expect to come up when tossing a coin?
5) If you tossed the coin 1,000 times, what values of X take on? Which values of C do you
think would occur most frequently?

The researchers decided to determine whether the flipping of a coin, a known fair activity, is
affected by social determinants, such as age, gender, and social status. The researchers did this by
simply taking participants off of their respective households. Afterwards, they compared the data
they gathered with Theoretical Probability and realized something out of the said concept.

In addition to this, the researchers also determined what is the Mean Value and Standard
Deviation in flipping a coin ten times. The Mean Value will tell the researchers how many heads a
person can most likely obtain when flipping a coin 10 times, while the Standard Deviation tells
how deviated the values can be from the said Mean Value, which can give the researchers a range
of X which is highly likely to happen.

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B. Plan of Investigation

The researchers collected data from a sample of 50 respondents chosen via the major factor of
convenience, hence, a “Non-Probability Sampling Technique” of Convenient Sampling took place.
More specifically, the respondents to the experiment are those who belong to the household of the
researchers in order to decrease the likeliness of the participant rejecting the participant. This may
bring up misconceptions that the experiment results are less reliable as it is done conducted on
participants who are not fairly-drawn. However, as probability holds true, the flipping of a coin can
only result in either a head or a tail, and there are no other known factors that will increase
likelihood of getting a certain face up when flipping a fair coin. With regards to the flipping of said
coin, we aim to make it standardized by using the BSP-Standardized New Generation 1-Peso Coin.

The researchers conducted a one-to-one experiment with the participants. Then, they tabulated
the information gathered into a handy data record sheet. When the data was gathered, organized,
and processed, all computations have been made. The researchers aimed to determine the mean
value of heads that can be obtained when flipping a coin 10 times. Also, they wanted to determine
a specific range where the majority of the number of heads obtained falls. Hence, concepts and
formulae from Empirical Probability and Theoretical Probability was utilized by the researchers in
order to make the conclusion and overall study more holistic.

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II. INFORMATION/MEASUREMENTS

A. Data Gathering Procedure

The researchers gathered the data in such a way that the 50 participants were split among the 6
researchers. Hence, 4 researchers were tasked to conduct the experiment on 8 participants in the
household, while 2 researchers conduct the experiment on 9 participants in the household. The
results were then compiled, organized, and tabulated in order for it to be interpreted accurately.

B. Data Instruments

The researchers made use of a BSP-Standardized New Generation 1-Peso Coin all throughout
the experiment. Also, a record sheet was made to systematically tabulate and organize the results
of the experiment conducted on each participant. In order to obtain a valid reference for the
conclusion, the researchers used Theoretical Probability, as well.

C. Data Organization

The researchers created their own record sheet to input all the data gathered. Once the data was
obtained from the participant, the researcher kept the data and the participants in complete privacy.
In addition to this, the researchers completed the Frequency and Probability Distribution Table
given to them as reference before the experiment began.

D. Analysis of Data

In this section, the researchers searched for the answers to these questions:

1) How do you define the Variable X?

2) Which values of X occurred most frequently?
3) What does the Relative Frequency Column sum up to?

In order to answer the questions, the researchers were required to organize the data. From the
project outline given to the researchers and the data they have collected, they completed the
Frequency and Probability Distribution Table.

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TABLE IID.1 Probability Distribution Table of the Data Obtained from the Experiment

Frequency of X Relative Frequency of X

X
𝒇 𝑷(𝑿)
0 1 1/50 = 0.02 or 2%
1 1 1/50 = 0.02 or 2%
2 2 2/50 = 0.04 or 4%
3 7 7/50 = 0.14 or 14%
4 5 5/50 = 0.1 or 10%
5 14 14/50 = 0.28 or 28%
6 7 7/50 = 0.14 or 14%
7 9 9/50 = 0.18 or 18%
8 2 2/50 = 0.04 or 4%
9 1 1/50 = 0.02 or 2%
10 1 1/50 = 0.02 or 2%
Total = 50 Total = 1 or 100%
In order for the trend of data to be more evident, the researchers used a histogram to compare
the various data frequencies and probability densities of P(X), respectively, where X is denoted by
the Number of Heads the participants were able to flip individually and the Frequency of X is the
number of participants who were able to flip a certain X Number of Heads on the Experiment.

FIGURE IID.1 Histogram Representation of Frequency Distribution (from the Experiment)

FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION OF HEADS FLIPPED

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FREQUENCY

12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
X (NUMBER OF HEADS FLIPPED)

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FIGURE IID.2 Probability Distribution of Flipping a Head (from the Experiment)

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF HEADS FLIPPED

30%

FREQUENCY
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
X (NUMBER OF HEADS FLIPPED)

From the Graphs above, the researchers inferred that the most frequent number of heads
flipped, X, is 5. In addition to this, the researchers also obtained from Table IID.1 that the Relative
Frequencies, which are actually the Empirical Probability of P(X), all add up to 1 or 100%, like
any other probability situation.

E. Mathematical Processes and Interpretation of Results

In order to obtain a holistic account on probability in the experiment, the researchers made use
of Theoretical Probability to compare the Empirical Probability determined by the researchers. In
addition to this, this section answers the following questions:

1) On average, how many heads would you expect to come up when tossing a coin?
2) If you tossed the coin 1,000 times, what values of X take on? Which values of C do you
think would occur most frequently?

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III. PRESENTATION OF DATA

A. Empirical Probability

On average, if a person were to flip a coin 10 times, we could expect a certain number of heads
to come up. We shall denote this value as μ, which is the mean value of X.

To find μ, the researchers made use of the formula 𝜇 = ∑[𝑋 ∙ 𝑃(𝑋)].

𝝁 = ∑[𝑋 ∙ 𝑃(𝑋)]

𝝁 = 0 ∙ 0.02 + 1 ∙ 0.02 + 2 ∙ 0.04 + 3 ∙ 0.14 + 4 ∙ 0.10 + 5 ∙ 0.28 + 6 ∙ 0.14 + 7 ∙ 0.18 +

8 ∙ 0.04 + 9 ∙ 0.02 + 10 ∙ 0.02
𝝁 = 0 + 0.02 + 0.08 + 0.42 + 0.4 + 1.4 + 0.84 + 1.26 + 0.32 + 0.18 + 0.2
∴ 𝝁 = 𝟓. 𝟏𝟐

However, a standard deviation still exists, which describes how deviated the data values are.
So, the researchers also determined the said value with the use of the formula
𝝈 = √∑[𝑋 2 ∙ 𝑃(𝑋)] − 𝜇2 .

𝜎 = √∑[𝑋 2 ∙ 𝑃(𝑋)] − 𝜇2

𝜎 2 = ∑[𝑋 2 ∙ 𝑃(𝑋)] − 𝜇2

𝜎 2 = 02 ∙ 0.02 + 12 ∙ 0.02 + 22 ∙ 0.04 + 32 ∙ 0.14 + 42 ∙ 0.10 + 52 ∙ 0.28 + 62 ∙ 0.14 +

72 ∙ 0.18 + 82 ∙ 0.04 + 92 ∙ 0.02 + 102 ∙ 0.02 − 5.122
𝜎 2 = 0 + 0.02 + 0.16 + 1.26 + 1.6 + 7 + 5.04 + 8.82 + 2.56 + 1.62 + 2 − 26.2144
𝜎 2 = 3.8656
∴ 𝝈 = √𝝈𝟐 ≈ 𝟏. 𝟗𝟔𝟔𝟏

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B. Theoretical Probability

The total number of outcomes possible to be obtained when flipping a coin 10 times is 210 .
The researchers used the formula:
(10 )
P(X = a) = 𝑎10 , 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑎 𝜖 𝑍; 0 ≤ 𝑎 ≤ 10
2

TABLE IIIB.1 Analysis of Probability Distribution via Theoretical Probability

X 𝑷(𝑿) 𝑿 ∙ 𝑷(𝑿) 𝑿𝟐 ∙ 𝑷(𝑿)

0 1 0 0
1024
1 10 10 10
1024 1024 1024
2 45 90 180
1024 1024 1024
3 120 360 1080
1024 1024 1024
4 210 840 3360
1024 1024 1024
5 252 1260 6300
1024 1024 1024
6 210 1260 7560
1024 1024 1024
7 120 840 5880
1024 1024 1024
8 45 360 2880
1024 1024 1024
9 10 90 810
1024 1024 1024
10 1 10 100
1024 1024 1024
∑ 1024 5120 28160
=1 𝝁= =𝟓 ∑= = 27.5
1024 1024 1024
𝜎 2 = ∑ − 𝜇2
𝜎 2 = 27.5 − 52
𝜎 2 = 27.5 − 25
𝝈𝟐 = 𝟐. 𝟓
𝝈 = √𝜎 2 ≈ 𝟏. 𝟓𝟖𝟏𝟏

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FIGURE IIIB.1 Probability Distribution of Flipping a Head via Theoretical Probability

Probability Distribution of Flipping a Coin

0.3

0.25

0.2
Probability

0.15

0.1

0.05

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
X (Number of Heads Flipped)

From the graph, the researchers were able to perceive the equally symmetrical Probability
Distribution that is observed in the activity of flipping 10 coins at a time, this is with the help of
Theoretical Probability. From the Probability Distribution above, the most likely quantity of heads
that a person can obtain when flipping a coin 10 times is 5.

This Probability Distribution Graph is observably a Normal Distribution Curve with μ=5 and
σ²=2.5, denoted as X~N(5,2.5). Therefore, by following its properties:

𝑃(𝜇 − 𝜎 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 𝜇 + 𝜎) = 68%
𝑃(5 − 1.58 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 5 + 1.58) = 68%
𝑃(5 − 1.58 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 5 + 1.58) = 68%
𝑃(3.42 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 6.58) = 68%

Therefore, it is highly likely, specifically there is a 68% chance, that a person flips an a total
number of heads between 3.42 (approximated via the graph as 4) and 6.58 (approximated via the
graph as 6).

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C. Interpretation of Data

TABLE IIIC.1 Summary of Values and Computations obtained from the Experiment

X 𝒇 𝑷(𝑿) 𝑿 ∙ 𝑷(𝑿) 𝑿𝟐 ∙ 𝑷(𝑿)

0 1 0.02 0 0
1 1 0.02 0.02 0.02
2 2 0.04 0.08 0.16
3 7 0.14 0.42 1.26
4 5 0.1 0.4 1.6
5 14 0.28 1.4 7
6 7 0.14 0.84 5.04
7 9 0.18 1.26 8.82
8 2 0.04 0.32 2.56
9 1 0.02 0.18 1.62
10 1 0.02 0.2 2
∑ 50 1 𝝁 = 𝟓. 𝟏𝟐 ∑ = 𝟑𝟎. 𝟎𝟖
𝜎 2 = ∑ − 𝜇2
𝜎 2 = 30.08 − 5.122
𝜎 2 = 30.08 − 26.2144
𝝈𝟐 = 𝟑. 𝟖𝟔𝟓𝟔

𝝈 = √𝜎 2 ≈ 𝟏. 𝟗𝟔𝟔𝟏

The table above is the Summary of the Data gathered and obtained by the researchers in order
to answer the guide questions and formulate a generalization or conclusion. It can be observed
above that the Mean Value for X is 5.12, which means that the average number of Heads whenever
a person flips a BSP-Standardized New Generation 1-Peso coin is 5 out of 10 flips. However, due
to the Standard Deviation which is approximately 2, the Mean Value can be deviated by ± 2 of its
value. Hence, the general range for X is at least 3 or at most 7, and when expressed as an inequality,
3 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 7.

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From Sections IIIA and IIIB, the Mean Value, X, obtained from the two different approaches,
namely, Empirical Probability and Theoretical Probability, are both approximately 5. Also, the
Standard Deviations can also both be approximated (to the nearest integer) to 2.

Therefore, from both approaches, we can conclude that whenever a person flips a coin 10 times,
we could expect it to yield 𝑋 = 5(±2) heads. Hence, the mean X or range number of number heads
is expected to yield at least 3 heads and at most 7 whenever a person flips BSP-Standardized New
Generation 1-Peso Coin 10 times.

If a person hypothetically flips a coin 1000 times, the said person is expected to flip an average
of 5.12 Heads in every 10 Coin Flips. By using this ratio, the researchers found that an average of
512 Heads are expected to be obtained in the said activity. However, there is a Standard Deviation
of 1.9661 in every 10 flips. Hence, from the deviating factor, the researchers set up a range that
there must be at least 315 heads and at most 708 head flips, from the empirical probability obtained
from the Experiment Data Results.

However, when working with Theoretical Probability, we have a different generalization. The
ratio is X = 5 out of 10, according to the Mean Average, denoted by X. From this, we can expect
the Mean Average Heads flipped to be 500. However, there is a deviating factor of 𝝈 = 1.5811.
Therefore, it can be expected that when a coin is flipped 1000 times, it is expected that the X ranges
from 342 to 658 heads flipped.

From the calculations done by the researchers and the conclusions they have obtained, it is
evident that the Experiment followed the Concept of Theoretical Probability of coin flipping.
Because of this, we have fortified further the concept that the activity of flipping a fair coin is an
evenly chanced activity.

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III. CONCLUSION

A. Validity

Coin tossing is an activity done with a fair coin that provides only two possible outcomes,
either a head or a tail. No matter who the participant of the experiment is, the probability remains
the same. Hence, regardless of sampling method, the experiment is considered valid.

In order to fortify this premise, the researchers referred to the use of Theoretical
Probability. From this process, the researchers were able to fully disclose that social status, age,
and the Sampling Method have no effect on the Experiment Results. However, the researchers do
not fully disregard other factors that can affect the Probability of getting a head when flipping a
coin, which gives room for improvement to future experimental analyses similar to this study.

B. Recommendations and Conclusion

The researchers recommend that future researchers try to delve into the factors that could
possibly affect the result when flipping a coin, specifically height of the participant, height and
trajectory of the flip, the upper face of the coin when flipped, the flick of the finger, the surface
area and weight of the coin, etc.

In addition to this, the researchers would like to suggest that the future researchers create a
varied approach by tasking the participants to flip different coins at a time.

From all the data gathered, the researchers obtained a conclusion that the Empirical Probability
follows approximately the same values as those of Theoretical Probability. Hence, the researchers
concluded that flipping a coin is indeed an evenly-chanced event with equal chances of obtaining
either face upwards. Therefore, we can conclude that when flipping a fair coin 10 times, the mean
value that can be obtained is 5 heads which may most likely deviate to a value not less than 3 or
not greater than 7.

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Appendix A
Record Sheet for Data Gathering

Coin Toss Results TOTAL

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (HEADS)
1 H T T T H H T H H T 5
2 T T T T H H H H H H 6
3 T T H H H T H H H H 7
4 T H T H H T H H H T 6
5 T T T H T T T T T H 2
6 T H H T H T H H H H 7
7 T T H H T H T H T H 5
8 H H T H T T H T T H 5
9 T T T H T T H H H H 5
10 T H T H T H H H H H 7
Number of Participants

11 H H H H H H T T T H 7
12 H T H T T T H T T H 4
13 T H H T H T H H H H 7
14 T H H H T T T T H H 5
15 T T H H H H T H H H 7
16 T H H H T H T H T T 5
17 H H T T T T H T T T 3
18 T H H H H H H H H T 8
19 T H T H T H H H H T 6
20 H T T H H H T H H T 6
21 T H T H T T H H H T 5
22 H T H T H H H H T H 7
23 H T H T T H T T T T 3
24 T H T T T H H T T T 3
25 T T H T T T T H H H 4

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26 T T H H T H H T T T 4
27 H H T H H H T T T T 5
28 T T H T H T H H H H 6
29 T T T H T H H H T H 5
30 H H H H H H H H H T 9
31 H T H T T T H T H H 5
32 H H H T H H T T H H 7
33 T H T H H T T H T H 5
34 T T T H T H T H T T 3
35 H T H H T H H T T T 5
Number of Participants

36 T T H T T H H H T T 4
37 T T H T T T H T H T 3
38 H T T H T H T H H T 5
39 T T H H H T T T T T 3
40 T T H T H H H H T T 5
41 T H T T T T H T T T 2
42 H T H T T H H T H H 6
43 H H T H T H H H H H 8
44 H T T T H H T H H H 6
45 T T T T T T H T T T 1
46 H T H H T T H T T T 4
47 H T T H H H T H H H 7
48 H H H H H H H H H H 10
49 H T H T T T T H T T 3
50 T T T T T T T T T T 0

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Appendix B
Visual Representation of BSP-Standardized New Generation 1-Peso Coin

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