The location of tropical storms shifts eastward during an
El Niño because atmospheric moisture is fuel for
thunderstorms, and the greatest amount of evaporation
takes place above the ocean's warmest water.
There is also an opposite of an El Niño, called La Niña.
This refers to times when waters of the tropical eastern
Pacific are colder than normal and trade winds blow
more strongly than usual.
Collectively, El Niño and La Niña are parts of an
oscillation in the ocean-atmosphere system called the El
Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO cycle, which also has
a neutral phase.
What causes an El Niño?
Scientists do not yet understand in detail what triggers
an El Niño cycle. Not all El Niños are the same, nor do
the atmosphere and ocean always follow the same
patterns from one El Niño to another.
"There isn't one big cause, which is one of the reasons
why we can't predict this thing perfectly," L'Heureux
said. "There is some predictability in the common
features that arise with El Nino, which is why we can
make forecasts of it. But it won't be exactly the same
every time."
To forecast an El Niño, scientists monitor temperatures
in the upper 656 feet (200 meters) of the ocean. They
are watching for the telltale temperature shift from the
western Pacific to the eastern Pacific. For example, in
spring 2014, a very strong warm water swell called a
"Kelvin wave" crossed the Pacific, leading some
forecasters to predict a powerful El Niño for winter
2014. However, their forecast fizzled by fall because
storms and trade winds never followed suit, and the
feedbacks between atmosphere and ocean failed to
develop.
"El Niños are never inevitable," L'Heureux said.
How often do El Niños occur?
El Niños occur every three to five years but may come
as frequently as every two years or as rarely as every
seven years. Typically, El Niños occur more frequently
than La Niñas. Each event usually lasts nine to 12
months. They often begin to form in spring, reach peak
strength between December and January, and then
decay by May of the following year.
Their strength can vary considerably between cycles.
One of the strongest in recent decades was the El Niño
that developed the winter of 1997-98. "Everyone
associates the word El Niño with that event, but that
was a rare, once-in-a-century event," notes L'Heureux.
El Niño was originally named El Niño de Navidad by
Peruvian fishermen in the 1600s. This name was used
for the tendency of the phenomenon to arrive around
Christmas. Climate records of El Niño go back millions of
years, with evidence of the cycle found in ice cores,
deep sea muds, coral, caves and tree rings.
What happens when El Niño is not present?
In normal, non-El Niño conditions, trade winds blow
toward the west across the tropical Pacific, away from
South America. These winds pile up warm surface water
in the west Pacific, so that the sea surface is about 1 to
2 feet (0.3 m to 0.6 m) higher offshore Indonesia than
across the Pacific, offshore Ecuador.
The sea-surface temperature is also about 14 degrees
Fahrenheit (8 degrees Celsius) warmer in the west.
Cooler ocean temperatures dominate offshore
northwest South America, due to an upwelling of cold
water from deeper levels. This nutrient-rich cold water
supports diverse marine ecosystems and major
fisheries.
When an El Niño kicks in
During an El Niño, the trade winds weaken in the
central and western Pacific. Surface water temperatures
off South America warm up, because there is less
upwelling of the cold water from below to cool the
surface. The clouds and rainstorms associated with
warm ocean waters also shift toward the east. The
warm waters release so much energy into the
atmosphere that weather changes all over the planet.
Among the known effects of El Niño
The warmer waters in the central and eastern tropical
Pacific Ocean have important effects on the world's
weather. The greatest impacts are generally not felt
until winter or spring over the Northern Hemisphere,
L'Heureux said. The 1982-83 El Niño is estimated to
have caused more than $10 billion in weather-related
damage worldwide. [How El Niño Causes Wild Weather
All Over the Globe]

An El Niño creates stronger wind-shear and more-stable

air over the Atlantic, which makes it harder for
hurricanes to form. However, the warmer-than-average
ocean temperatures boost eastern Pacific hurricanes,
contributing to more-active tropical storm seasons.

Strong El Niños are also associated with above-average

precipitation in the southern tier of the United States
from California to the Atlantic coast. The cloudier
weather typically causes below-average winter
temperatures for those states, while temperatures tilt
warmer-than-average in the northern tier of the United
States. Rainfall is often below average in the Ohio and
Tennessee valleys and the Pacific Northwest during an
El Niño.
Heat creates ignition to start combustion (chemical
reaction) as the fuel (combustible materials) burns, it
will release atoms, moving faster, forming bonds with
oxidizers(oxygen), increasing continuity of fire until the
fuel burns off.

Fuel contains carbon, hydrogen and some oxygen.

Creating Carbon Dioxide (released heat) and H2O Gas
State (White Smoke).

A powder extinguisher sprays a very fine chemical

powder composed most commonly of monoammonium
phosphate. This acts to blanket the fire and suffocate it.