Journal of Industrial Aerodynamics, 2 (1977/1978) 331--344 33.

1
© Elsevier Scientific Publishing Company, Amsterdam -- Printed in The Netherlands

EXTREME WIND SPEEDS IN MIXED WIND CLIMATES

L. GOMES
Soros-Longworth and McKenzie, Consulting Engineers, 3 Eden Street, Crow Nest 2065,
Sydney (Australia)
and

B.J. VICKERY
Faculty of Engineering Science, University of Western Ontario (Canada)
(Received June 17, 1977)

Summary

In this paper, a technique is discussed which enables extreme wind speed probabilities
in mixed wind climates to be determined. It is shown that in such wind climates the
method is likely to yield more accurate probability estimates than the traditional Gumbel
analysis of annual wind speed maxima, particularly for annual probabilities of less than
2% (i.e. return periods greater than 50 years}. The technique requires a separate analysis
of each significant wind-producing meteorological phenomenon and practical methods of
achieving this are presented. Extreme wind speed parameters obtained from each analysis
may then be combined to yield a "composite extreme wind speed diagram" and several
examples illustrating this procedure are shown. By means of a numerical simulation of a
typical mixed wind climate, a detailed study is made of the distribution of extreme wind
gusts from different meteorological phenomena. This study indicates that a Gumbel analy-
sis of 20 annual maxima may severely underestimate low annual probability (i.e. long
return period} gust speeds.

1. Introduction

The potential dangers in determining design wind speeds from a standard

Gumbel analysis [1] of annual gust maxima in mixed wind climates are well
known. In tropical and sub-tropical regions, for example, a hurricane (known
in Australasia as a tropical cyclone and in South East Asia as a typhoon) can
produce winds very much faster than wind speeds observed in prior years.
Such has occurred in Australia in recent years when tropical cyclones Althea
[ 2 ] and Tracy [ 3 ] struck Townsville and Darwin respectively, producing gusts
of twice the speed recorded in the previous ten years.
In this paper, a technique is discussed which enables the probability levels
associated with extreme gust speeds to be accurately estimated for mixed wind
climates. The procedure requires the examination of each significant wind-
producing meteorological phenomenon. The extreme gust speed probability
distributions are then combined in order to obtain design wind speeds.
332

In addition to accuracy, separate analysis of each phenomenon enables the

use of computational methods especially suited to a particular phenomenon.
A Gumbel analysis requires continuous monitoring of the wind to ensure
that the annual maximum gust speed is not missed. This practical difficulty
can be avoided in the case of hurricanes (Section 4) and tornadoes (Section
5) by employing numerical simulation techniques that estimate the wind
speed from such sources as barometric and satellite information. Computa-
tional techniques are also available for thunderstorms (Section 3) and large-
scale, extra-tropical pressure systems (Section 2) which do not depend on
unbroken wind records.
Separate analysis of the significant meteorological phenomena also enables
their differing forms of destruction to be taken into account. A hurricane, for
example, would typically 'cause more damage than a thunderstorm producing
the same maximum gust speed because of the greater spatial and temporal
extent of the former. The greatest of all recorded wind speeds have occurred
during tornadoes, but their very narrow paths, often only several hundred
metres wide, greatly reduce the total destruction.

2. Extensive, extra-tropical pressure systems

These thermally neutral systems produce the background pattern of

weather which, depending on local climatic conditions, may be punctuated
by events such as thunderstorms, hurricanes and tornadoes. They typically
influence a particular location for three or four days and result in relatively
steady wind conditions. In temperate regions, such systems may yield quite
extreme gusts but, as climatic conditions become more tropical and thermal
activity becomes more significant, their influence diminishes.
The probability distribution of annual maximum gust speeds of extensive
pressure system (EPS) storms is well approximated by the Fisher--Tippett
Type I distribution [ 1,4], where
P ( V E < V) = exp[--exp[--aE(V-- VEt)]] (I)
in which P(VE < V) is the cumulative probability distribution (cpd) of annu-
al maximum EPS storm gust speeds, VE; V~I is the mode of VE; and 1/aE is
the dispersion of VE.
The probability distribution of annual maximum gust speeds of EPS storms
may be found in at least three ways. Firstly, if continuous wind data have
been recorded and daffy weather commentaries are available, annual EPS
maxima may be found directly. Alternatively, it has been shown [4] that
monthly EPS maxima may be employed in place of annual maxima if correc-
tion is made to the mode to account for the number of months in a year. I.e.:
P(VE < V) = [P(Ve < V)] '~, (2)
which leads to
 333

VE1 = V e l + 1/ae In 12 (3)

and
1/aE = 1/ae

where VE and Ve are the annual and m o n t h l y m a x i m u m EPS gust speeds,

respectively; VE1 and Vel are the modes of VE and Ve, respectively; 1/aE and
1/a e are the dispersions of V E and Ve, respectively; and where P(VE < V)
and P(Ve < V) are the cpd of VE and Ve, respectively. This process may be
particularly useful if only a few years of data are available or if occasional
gaps occur in the wind records. The occasional gap can be tolerated as long as
there remains an adequate sample of m o n t h l y maxima and no seasonal biases
exist in the data.
The second m e t h o d utilises peak gust factors and mean wind speed data
recorded n o t continuously, but at regular time intervals such as three or six
hours. As extensive pressure systems form the ambient weather conditions,
contamination by other phenomena will be relatively infrequent and a reason-
able estimate of the parent probability distribution of mean wind speeds
should be available. The probability distribution of annual EPS mean wind
speed maxima can then be found using an approach investigated by Gomes
and Vickery [5] based on Rice's upcrossing rate formula [6]. If it is assumed
that the peak gust factor g, the ratio of the m a x i m u m gust speed during a
storm to the mean wind speed of the storm, is relatively insensitive to the
mean wind speed [7] then extreme gust speeds can be simply scaled off ex-
treme mean wind speeds. I.e.:
P(VE < V) = P(UE < V/g), (4)
where UE is the annual m a x i m u m EPS storm mean wind speed. Approximate
values o f g are enumerated by many authors, e.g. [8,9].
The third m e t h o d could be described as "estimation by elimination". If
the available absolute (i.e. no meteorological discrimination) annual gust
maxima are plotted on the appropriate probability paper [1,10] (in this case,
Fisher--Tippett Type I paper) and the distributions of thunderstorm and
other appropriate extreme gust speeds have been determined, the EPS storm
distribution may be approximated by the tail of the observed maxima. This
technique relies on the observation that EPS storms are usually the least
significant mechanism, producing the lowest class of annual maxima. This
m e t h o d is illustrated in Section 6 of this paper.
The three methods described above would cover most situations in which
extreme wind speed information on extensive pressure systems was required.
The first m e t h o d requires continuous wind monitoring and weather observa-
tions. However, this may be feasible over a period of a few years in which
case m o n t h l y maxima may be employed. A difficulty with the second m e t h o d
lies in the estimation of the peak gust factor, and correlation with locally ob-
served gust and mean wind speeds is therefore desirable. The prediction of
 334

extreme mean wind speeds via Rice's equation is useful in environmental

studies and other investigations where mean wind speeds are required. The
third m e t h o d is probably the simplest but the least accurate, depending on
the length of the tail. Often, however, the designer is more interested in the
higher-order extremes and the reduced accuracy of lower-order extremes can
be tolerated.

3. Thunderstorms

Thunderstorms have their genesis in the initial uplift of warm, moisture-

laden air. If the surrounding air is cooler than the uplifted air, the elevation
continues until the weight of precipitated water and ice droplets is such that
the updraught can no longer support its load. Rain, and sometimes haft, then
begins to fall and downdraughts develop. Eventually, the downdraughts of
cooler air overwhelm the updraughts and dissipate the now unreplenished
charge of moisture.
Despite the strong vertical draughts associated with thunderstorms, it was
found in a study of Sydney thunderstorms [4] that the probability distribu-
tions of horizontal wind direction were consistent with observed approach
directions of thunderstorms. That is, the association of a wind direction with
a thunderstorm gust may be appropriate. It was further found that the Fisher
Tippett Type I distribution was appropriate to the m a x i m u m horizontal gust
speed of the storm. I.e.:
P ( V t < V) = e x p [ - e x p [ - a t ( V - Vtl)]], (5)
where V t is the m a x i m u m gust speed of thunderstorm; Vtl and 1/a t are the
mode and dispersion, respectively, of Vt; and where P(Vt ~ V) is the cpd of
vt.
Given the probability distribution of the number of thunderstorms per
year, nt, it follows that
oo

P(VT < V) = ~ [P(Vt < v)]ntp(nt), (6)

nt=o

where VT is the annual m a x i m u m thunderstorm gust speed, and where P(nt)

is the probability density distribution (pdd) of n t.
It has been shown [4] that the nature of the distribution of n t is of little
significance and that
P(VT < V) ~- [P(V t <: V)]~t, (7)
or

VT1 ~- Vta + 1~at In r/t

and
1~aT ~- l/at.
 335

This m e t h o d of determining the distribution of VT requires continuous

monitoring of gust speeds t h r o u g h o u t a storm. It does not, however, require
unbroken monitoring t h r o u g h o u t the year.

4. Hurricanes

Hurricanes usually have their genesis in the warm latitudes around 10 °

north and south of the equator, the Coriolis forces apparently being too small
in the lower latitudes to generate and sustain a vortex of air. They are fed by
moist convection currents from the warm, tropical oceans and, consequently,
they begin to fill (degenerate) on passing over land or the cooler waters of
higher latitudes. At this stage, they often become intense rain depressions.
The difficulty which sets apart the determination of extreme wind speeds
of hurricanes {and tornadoes) from other phenomena is their relatively rare
occurrence. Whilst a particular site may receive dozens of thunderstorms and
scores of extensive depressions each year, it may suffer from only one or two
hurricanes in a season. Consequently, the extraction of only one piece of
information, namely the m a x i m u m gust speed, from each hurricane that af-
fected the site would yield insufficient data for an accurate determination of
extreme wind speeds. In addition, it is not u n c o m m o n for an anemometer to
fail under the extraordinary winds produced by hurricanes, so that no useful
wind speed data may be gained at all.
This difficulty may be circumvented by utilising an assumed wind field
structure for the hurricane. The m a x i m u m gust speed at a site can then be
estimated from such input parameters as the central pressure of the hurricane,
its advance velocity and the distance from the site to the eye in terms of the
radius to m a x i m u m winds (a measure of the lateral extent of the wind field).
Such data are more readily available and are less prone to the difficulties con-
fronting gust speed observations.
Statistical descriptions, primarily the probability distributions, of the neces-
sary input parameters can usually be gained from available meteorological
data. A numerical simulation procedure can then be employed to generate
random estimates of the input parameters relevant to a hurricane occurrence.
Through generating m a n y hurricanes, the probability distribution of m a x i m u m
hurricane gust speeds at a site can be estimated.
The above procedure is c o m m o n l y referred to as a Monte Carlo simulation.
The hurricane parameters generated are not those actually observed, but are
selected by a random number generator such that they reproduce the ob-
served statistical behariour of the parameters. That is, the probability distribu-
tions of the parameters are preserved rather than the actual observations.
Such a procedure has been investigated by several researchers [ 11--13].
An area of interest is defined about a given site in order to distinguish those
hurricanes that may have affected the site. The meteorological records are
then scanned and the probability distribution parameters are estimated. The
distributions of m a x i m u m gust speeds (by synthesis) and hurricane occurrences
336

(from observations) are separately determined and then combined, as for

thunderstorms {Section 3), to yield the distribution of annual maximum hurri
cane gust speeds. The authors found [12] that the Fisher--Tippett Type I dis-
tribution was again appropriate so that
P(VH < V ) "" exp[--exp[--aH(V-- VH1)] ], (8)
where VH is the annual m a x i m u m hurricane gust speed; VH1 and 1 / a H a r e the
mode and dispersion, respectively, of VH; and where P(VH < V) is the cpd of
VH. Also:
VH1 = Y h 1 + 1/ah In nh
and
l~H=l~h,
where Vhl and 1/ah (the mode and dispersion of the m a x i m u m gust speed Vh
of a hurricane) are found from the numerical simulation routine and nh, the
average number of hurricanes per year, is found from hurricane occurrence
records.

5. Tornadoes

The tornado is a p h e n o m e n o n which often has its genesis in very severe

thunderstorms. Approximately 90% of the world's tornadoes occur in the
United States, with most of the remaining 10% occurring in Australia. The
very intense updraughts in the eye of a tornado can raise debris to great
heights, producing the thin black column often observed within the vortex.
When occurring over sea, the updraught usually results in a water spout.
Tornadoes, usually of a milder nature, can also occur in quite dry regions
where they are often referred to as whirlwinds or dust devils.
The tornado has frequently been ignored by designers because of the very
low probability of crossing a given site and because of inadequate quantita-
tive data. However, with the construction of nuclear reactors and very deli-
cate research centres, the need has arisen in some cases, to assess all risks, no
matter how slight.
Several approaches to assessing probability levels of tornado wind speeds
have been investigated [14,15]. Typically, the probability distributions of
the occurrence rate of tornadoes, their path widths and lengths, and their
m a x i m u m wind speeds are required. As the necessary data are always very
limited, they are usually gathered for areas defined by a grid of latitude and
longitude (e.g. 1 ° squares) rather than for individual locations. If tornado
paths are uniformly spread over an area within the grid, the probability of a
given location within t h a t area being hit by a particular tornado is given by
the ratio of the swept area of the tornado to the grid area. Another c o m m o n
assumption, justified by the narrow path width, is to assume t h a t if a location
suffers a hit, it receives the m a x i m u m wind speed of the tornado.
 337

If all the required distributions are available, the probability distribution

of the annual m a x i m u m tornado gust speeds is most easily found from a
Monte Carlo simulation procedure, as is done for hurricanes. In parts of the
United States frequently affected by tornadoes, reasonable estimates of
occurrence and path width and length statistics are possible, but more often
the distributions of tornado characteristics are very difficult to determine.
The most difficult characteristic to quantify is the m a x i m u m wind speed
because so few reliable measurements have been made. In the very rare event
of a tornado passing over an anemometer, the intense winds have usually
destroyed the instrument and, with it, any hope of accurate measurement.
Most wind speed estimates are based on damage surveys, and until speeds can
be correlated with some more measureable characteristic, this is likely to
remain the only means of assessment.
Studies in the United States by Wen and Chu [15] indicate that tornadoes
can become d o m i n a n t at return periods in excess of 500 years (or a probabil-
ity of occurrence in one year of 0.2%). Thus, for most purposes, w.here return
periods of 50 years are employed, tornadoes may be justifiably neglected. As
mentioned earlier, however, structures which necessitate extremely low failure
probabilities may require a study of tornado-induced wind speeds.

6. Combined extreme gtrst speed distributions

The form of the combined probability distribution, the distribution of the

absolute annual m a x i m u m gust speed VM, is of the form:
Q
P(VM < V)= ]-[ P(Vq < V), (9)
q=l

where Vq is the annual maximum gust speed of the qth meteorological

phenomenon;P(VM< V) and P(Vq< V) is the cpd of VM and Vq , respec-
tively; and where Q is the number of significant meteorological phenomena.
Design gust speeds may be found from eqn. (9) by noting that the return
period R (years) of a given gust speed VR is given by (see the Appendix):
P ( V M < Vn) = exp[-1/R]. (10)
Several features of the combined distribution are of interest and these were
investigated by numerical means with an example typical of a mixed wind
climate. Three meteorological phenomena were assumed to be significant;
extensive pressure systems, thunderstorms, and hurricanes. The modes and
dispersions of the constituent probability distributions are enumerated in
Table 1 and the combined distribution is given by:
P(VM < V) = exp[-f(V)], (Ii)
where
f(V) = exp[--aE(V-- VE1)] + exp[--aT(V-- VT1)] + exp[--aH(V-- VH1)]-
338

Equation (11) is plotted in Fig. 1 together with the constituent probability

distributions.
Ten consecutive 50-year periods were then numerically generated by a
simulation routine in which, for each year, annual maximum EPS storm,
thunderstorm, and hurricane, gust speeds were randomly selected from the
three constituent probability distributions. The absolute maxima were then
found and classified according to their storm origin. The maxima were rear-
ranged in ascending order and allocated probabilities in the fashion [1]:
P(VM < V1) *-j/(J + 1), (12)
where V1 is the jth largest maximum, and J is the total number of maxima
(= 50).
The first 50-year sample is plotted in Fig. 1 together with the meteorolog-
ical origin of each maximum. Using all ten samples, the mean extreme gust
speed and the standard deviation were estimated for each return period. Con-
fidence limits, equal to the mean extreme speed plus and minus one standard
deviation are also shown in Fig. 1.

TABLE 1

Modes and dispersions ,

EPS storms Thunderstorms Hurricanes

mode (m/s) 18.61 16.53 2.99

dispersion (m/s) 2.0 5.0 10.0

o SIMULATEDHURRICANE INDUCEDANNUAL MAXIMUM GUST SPEED /

b SIMULATEDTHUNDERSTORM INDUCEDANNUAL MAXIMUM GUSTSPEED
O SIMULATED EPS STORM INDUCED ANNUAL MAXIMUM GUST SPEED /
GO
~-- CONFIDENCE LIMITS (MEAN _* ONE STANDARD DEVIATION } ~ / ~
OF SIMULATED D I S T R I B U T I O N / / ~

40
~ ~ ~ .....
¢c

30

J
s 10

0"4 0,5 ' ' ' i

RETURN PERIOD R(YEARS)

Fig. 1. Simulated extreme gust speed distribution.

 339

As expected, the lower-order annual maxima are mostly derived from EPS
storms, the middle order from thunderstorms, and the higher order from
hurricanes. However, a considerable degree of mixing occurs with, for exam-
ple, some annual maxima derived from EPS storms being greater than some
induced by both thunderstorms and hurricanes. The simulated maxima of the
single illustrated sample generally lie within the band bounded by plus and
minus one standard deviation from the mean (and thus corresponding to a
confidence level of about 2/3).
The consequences of using the Gumbel analysis of annual maxima to
predict return periods of very extreme wind speeds may also be studied by
numerical means. In Table 2, results obtained from six consecutive 20-year
periods are shown and were used to estimate the 100-year gust speed. The
modes and dispersions were obtained from a least squares fit of a Fisher--
Tippett Type I distribution* and the percentage errors in the Gumbel estimate
of the 100-year gust speed were based on the value given by eqn. (11):
V,00 = 50.1 m/s.
The most consequential observation from Table 2 is that the standard
Gumbel analysis with a Fisher--Tippett Type I distribution consistently under-
estimates the more extreme gust speeds. This occurs because the more ex-
treme gusts are caused by a p h e n o m e n o n (in this case, hurricanes) which is
inadequately represented in the sample of annual maxima and which has a
dispersion greater than that obtained from the sample. This difference in
dispersions (i.e. slopes) has the effect of increasing the error in Gumbel esti-
mated extreme gust speeds as return periods increase.

TABLE 2

Results from numerical simulation of mixed wind climate

20-year mode dispersion estimated V loo % error in

period (m/s) (m/s) (m/s) V, oo

1 21.42 5.324 45.93 --8.3

2 21.52 3.865 39.32 --21.5
3 19.09 3.857 36.85 --26.4
4 23.47 3.850 41.20 --17.8
5 21.80 6.125 50.01 --0.2
6 21.17 4.005 39.61 --20.9
mean 21.41 4.504 42.15 --15.9

*From recent correspondence, it has been pointed out that improved estimates of the
Type I distribution parameters m a y be gained from a method investigated by J. Lieblein
("Efficient methods of extreme-value methodology", Rep. N B S I R 74--602, Natl. Bur.
Stand., Washington D.C., October 1974; and "Note on simplified estimators for Type I
extreme-value distribution", Rep. N B S I R 75--637, Natl. Bur. Stand., Washington D.C.,
December 1974). While Lieblein's method m a y result in changes to values in the last
column of Table 2, the values would stillbe negative and the same inferences would still
apply.
340

7. Some examples o f combined extreme gust speed distributions

In Figs. 2--6, the combination of appropriate gust speed distributions,

resulting in a "composite gust speed diagram", is illustrated for a number of
Australian cities which encompass a range of climates from temperate to
tropical. The diagrams compare observed absolute annual maxima with pre-
dicted extreme gust speeds.
o

6O

50 0 o o o

-- 40 " • 4O
E
>~
30 3O
(

d 0 O b s e r v e d Annual Maxirn~
Q Predicted Extreme Gusts of
Hurricanes
C~)Predicted Extreme Gusts of
10 (~) Thunderstorms
Predicted Extreme Gusts of
10
EPSStorms
I I I I
10 100 I
10
i
100
Return Period R (years) Return Period R (years)

Fig. 2. Extreme gust speeds for Onslow.

Fig. 3. Extreme gust speeds for Adelaide.

"~ 4O
40 o Oto~
>= 3o E 30 o

/
~0 100 I 1
10 I I
100
Return Period R (years) Return Period R (yeort)

Fig. 4. Extreme gust speeds for Launceston.

Fig. 5. Extreme gust speeds for Brisbane (Eagle Farm).

 341

4O

o
3o

o °°°°

I 10 100
Return Period R (yeors)

Fig. 6. Extreme gust speeds for Townsville.

The procedure adopted was to initially draw-in the predicted extreme gust
speed lines for thunderstorms and, where appropriate, hurricanes. These two
mechanisms are sufficient in tropical areas, but in the more temperate south-
ern latitudes extensive pressure systems contribute significantly to the ob-
served absolute annual maxima. For the purposes of the diagrams shown, the
determination of the EPS line was expedited by using the "process of elimina-
tion" described earlier (Section 2). The more arduous method of actually
extracting EPS maxima from the raw meteorological data has been success-
fully carried o u t by the authors in a study of wind speeds measured at Sydney
[4].
In general, it can be seen that the observed maxima tend to follow the
higher-gust speed line. Although, in some instances, the very extreme maxima
are somewhat different from those predicted, it should be appreciated that
the probability levels attached to these extremes are very sensitive to the
number of years of records. The highest maximum at a site, for example, is
allocated a return period approximately equal to the number of maxima in
the sample [1], and, thus, an unusual event such as a very severe hurricane
may receive a quite distorted probability level.

8. Conclusions

In this paper, a technique is examined for determining the probability

levels of extreme gust speeds in mixed wind climates. The technique requires
a separate analysis of each significant wind-producing meteorological phenom-
enon. Methods of analysing the most c o m m o n phenomena, namely extensive
extra-tropical pressure system storms, thunderstorms, hurricanes and tornadoes
are presented. The methods were developed with special emphasis on practica-
342

bility, so that many of the difficulties inherent in the traditional Gumbel

approach may be overcome.
More work is involved in the technique than in the Gumbel analysis of
annual maxima, but the enhanced accuracy enables wind speeds with quite
long return periods (i'.e. low annual probability levels) to the predicted with
greater confidence. It is shown that, in a mixed wind climate, the traditional
analysis based on 20 annual gust maxima may underestimate long return period
gust speeds. A representative example indicated an average deficit of 15% on
the 100-year gust speed, a percentage shortfall which increased with longer
return periods.
The technique is particularly appropriate to the design of structures which
must have very low probabilities of failure. Such structures include nuclear
power installations and delicate research centres where failure may have quite
catastrophic consequences. However, the fact that extreme gust speeds are
commonly underestimated by traditional methods of analysis, makes this
technique relevant to many design problems.

Acknowledgements

The study described herein was supported by a grant from the Australian
Research Grants Committee. The constructive comments given by Professor
D. Campbell-Allen and Associate Professor P.B. Jones were also appreciated.

Nomenclature

a inverse of dispersion (generalised form)

ae inverse of dispersion of Ve
aE inverse of dispersion of VE
ah inverse of dispersion of Vh
aH inverse of dispersion of VH
at inverse of dispersion of V t
~T inverse of dispersion of V T
g peak gust factor (max. gust speed/mean speed)
J number of annual gust maxima in a set
nh number of hurricanes in one year
nt number of thunderstorms in one year
P(nh), P(nt) probability distribution of nh, nt
P(< V) cumulative probability distribution of V
U mean (10 min) wind speed
UE annual maximum mean wind speed of EPS storms
V gust (Dines anemometer) speed
yl mode of V
ye monthly maximum gust speed of EPS storms at a site
yg annual maximum of Ve
 343

Yel mode of Ve
m o d e o f V~
Vh m a x i m u m gust speed of a hurricane at a site
V~ annual m a x i m u m of Vh
Yhl mode of Vh
Y~l mode of VH
yj j t h highest annual m a x i m u m gust speed in a set of J
VM absolute (i.e. undiscriminated) annual m a x i m u m gust speed at a
site
Yt m a x i m u m gust speed of a thunderstorm at a site
Vr annual m a x i m u m of Vt
Va mode of Vt
VT~ mode of VT

References
1 E.J. Gumbel, Statistics of Extremes, Columbia Univ. Press, New York, 1958.
2 Aust. Bur. Meteorol., Report by Director of Meteorology on Cyclone Althea, 1972.
3 G.R. Walker, Report on Cyclone Tracy -- Effects on buildings, Aust. Bur. of Housing
and Construction, 1975.
4 L. Gomes and B.J. Vickery, On thunderstorm wind gusts in Australia, Inst. Eng. Aust.
Civ. Eng. Trans., CE18, 2 (1976) 33--39.
5 L. Gomes and B.J. Vickery, On the prediction of extreme wind speeds from the parent
distribution, J. Ind. Aerodyn., 2 (1977) 21--36.
6 S.O. Rice, Mathematical analysis of random noise, In N. Wax (Ed.), Selected Papers on
Noise and Stochastic Processes, Dover, 1954.
7 L. Gomes, Design wind speeds in Australia, Ph.D. Thesis, Univ. of Sydney, 1977.
8 Y. Mitsuta, Gust factor and analysis time of gust, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 40 (4) (1962)
242--244.
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10 H.E. Whittingham, Extreme wind gusts in Australia, Anst. Bur. Meteorol. Bull., No. 46
(1964).
11 L.R. Russell, Probability distributions for Hurricane effects, ASCE, J. Waterw. Harbors
Coastal Eng. Div., 97, WW1 (1971) 139--154.
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northern Australian coast, Inst. Eng. Aust. Cir. Eng. Trans., CE18, 2 (1976) 40--49.
13 G.S. Martin, Probability distributions for hurricane wind gust speeds on the Australian
coast, Aust. Inst. Eng. Conf. on Applications of Probability Theory to Structural
Design, Melbourne, 1974.
14 University of Sydney, The structural and environmental effects of wind on buildings
and structures, Post-graduate Course, 1975.
15 Y.K. W e n and S.L. Chu, Tornado risks and design wind speed, ASCE, J. Struct. Div.,
99, ST12 (1973) 2409--2421.
16 A.G. Davenport, The dependence of wind loads on meteorological parameters, Conf.
on wind effects on buildings and structures, Toronto, 1967.

Appendix

Traditionally, the return period of a given wind speed is defined [10] as

" t h e number of observations (i.e. annual maxima) such that, on the average,
there is one observation equalling or exceeding (the given speed)". That is
344

the probability of a single maximum, arbitrarily selected from a set of annual

maxima, equalling or exceeding VR is l / R , or
P ( V M < V R ) = 1 -- P ( V M ~ V R ) = 1 -- 1/R, (A1)
which, for large R (~5), is approximated by
P(VM < Vn) = e x p [ - 1 / R ] . (A2)
For the Fisher--Tippett Type I distribution, eqn. (A2) yields the expression:
VR = VI + 1/a In R (A3)
where V1 and 1/a are the mode and dispersion, respectively.
An alternative approach leading directly to eqn. (A2) is to assume that
extreme wind speeds are independent events distributed as a Poisson random
variable [16]. The cpd of VM is then given by the probability that no exceed-
ences occur during a unit return period. That is
P ( V M < V) = exp[-k], (A4)
where k is the average number of exceedences of V per annum (for return
periods expressed in years).
If the return period of a given speed is then defined as the average time
interval between exceedences of the given speed
~, = 1/R, (A5)
and eqn. (A2) results on substitution of eqn. (A5) into eqn. (A4). The advan-
tage of eqn. (A2) over eqn. (A1) is that a sensible meaning can be given to
return periods of less than unity. Short return periods are frequently used in
environmental wind studies where human comfort rather than structural
competence is the design criterion.