Sports Obermeyer

Forecasts Method-1
Style Price Average 2xStd.Dev. Prod.Qty
Gail $110 1017 388 0.38151426 508.5
Isis $99 1042 646 0.61996161 521
Entice $80 1358 496 0.365243 679
Assault $90 2525 680 0.26930693 1262.5
Teri $123 1100 762 0.69272727 550
Electra $173 2150 807 0.37534884 1075
Stephanie $133 1113 1048 0.94159928 556.5
Seduced $73 4017 1113 0.27707244 2008.5
Anita $93 3296 2094 0.63531553 1648
Daphne $148 2383 1394 0.58497692 1191.5
Totals 20001 0 10000

Problem: How much to produce for each item so that total production in phase-1 is 10000 units.
Solution Approaches:
Method-1: Simple decision rule, produce exactly half of the mean demand of each item
Method-2: Produce near about (Mean - std.dev.) of demand of each item
Method-3: Assuming equal risk z, find out the production qty for each item i.e. ( mean-z*std.dev)
Method-4: Based on Heuristic given in Annant Raman's Paper
 z= Min. Prod. Batch Size
1.0608 B= 600 units
Method-2 Method-3 Method-4
Prod.Qty(approx) Prod.Qty Prod.Qty SafetyFactor Include? Prod.Qty
629 571.70 605.42 0.00 0
396 338.70 356.74 0.00 0
862 804.70 831.85 0.32 0.32 600
1845 1787.70 1803.67 1.95 1.95 1708
338 280.70 291.69 0.00 0
1343 1285.70 1293.95 1.18 1.18 1293
65 7.70 1.31 0.00 0
2904 2846.70 2836.36 2.53 2.53 3062
1202 1144.70 1074.73 1.00 1.00 2029
989 931.70 904.28 0.85 0.85 1339
10573 10000 10000 MinSF --> 0.32 10032

al production in phase-1 is 10000 units.

he mean demand of each item

nd of each item
qty for each item i.e. ( mean-z*std.dev)