Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (2014) 1e11

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Journal of Cleaner Production

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Substance flow analysis of steel and long term sustainability of iron

ore resources in Australia, Brazil, China and India
Mohan Yellishetty*, Gavin M. Mudd
Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University, Gippsland Campus, Wellington Road, Clayton, VIC 3800, Australia

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Substance flow analysis (SFA) provides a helpful tool for the study of the industrial metabolism of a
Received 30 June 2013 certain substance within a regional level. This paper presents SFA of steel in four countries, namely
Received in revised form Australia, Brazil, China and India. These countries are traditionally economically mineral dependent and
20 February 2014
are major contributors in global iron ore production. For example, in 2010 together these countries
Accepted 21 February 2014
produced 81% of world iron ore. Based on the analysis it was found that Australian and Brazilian iron ore
Available online xxx
stocks will deplete rapidly while China and India are accumulating. This paper then presents a discussion
on sustainability issues related to substance flows of steel stocks. The study is aimed at providing better
Keywords:
Substance flow analysis
understanding of stocks and flows and to inform the policy making for achieving the industrial meta-
Steel bolism and consequently leading to better management of resources and recycling of steel in the
Resource depletion countries under study.
Sustainability and the GDP Crown Copyright Ó 2014 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction the environmental concerns related to resource use. The results of

Substance flow analysis (SFA) is an analytical tool to systemat-
ically assess the flow and stock of a specific substance through a
given system (e.g. productive, economic or social system), which
should be clearly defined in space and time, and is concerned with
identifying environmental problems associated with such flows. It
includes element and chemical flow analysis (Bringezu et al., 1997).
It can be used to estimate the losses and gains of a particular
substance from a particular region(s) of study and the environ-
mental impacts during various processes in its life cycle. The SFA
makes use of the law of ‘mass conservation’ to track the fate of
materials and to evaluate the environmental burdens thereof and
thus it plays an important role in attaining industrial metabolism.
By using SFA, we can analyse the amount and intensity of use of the
substance, so as to offer a new method and perspectives setting for
the environmental policy (Kapur and Graedel, 2004). The results of
an SFA can therefore act as a good guiding tool for formulation of a
better policy and practice in an industry, and can help to address
* Corresponding author. Division of Mining & Resources Engineering, Civil En-
gineering, Monash University, Wellington Road, Clayton 3800, VIC, Australia.
Tel.: þ61 9902 7143.
E-mail address: mohan.yellishetty@gmail.com (M. Yellishetty).
SFA can be used to assess the sustainability of socio-economic
development and environmental change, and therefore should be
viewed as a tool for sustainability assessment.
The SFA has gained prominence, particularly in the last decade
and a half, as an increasing number of researchers/organisations
across the world have embarked on the task of developing country
and/or regional specific studies with broad ranging applications in
many fields. For example, studies on iron and steel (Michael, 1999;
Michaelis and Jackson, 2000a, b), and copper (Xueyi and Yu, 2008;
Kapur, 2003; Spatari, 2002). There are other studies focused on
nonferrous metals, such as aluminum (Melo, 1999), zinc (Gordon,
2003; Spatari, 2003) and cadmium (Guinee, 1999).
The main objective of this paper is to present a substance flow
analysis of iron and steel in Australia, Brazil, China and India (i.e.
accumulation and de-accumulation analysis of steel stocks) and
link these trends to the iron ore and/or steel industries’ long-term
sustainability issues. Although it is a well recognised fact that steel
is a multi-substance material and can be used in a variety of
different forms and products, for the purpose of this study we have
expressed all of them in terms of their crude steel (CS) equivalents
and thus the study is called a ‘substance flow analysis’ not a ‘ma-
terial flow analysis’. To facilitate the discussion, initially, an over-
view of iron and steel industry has been presented. This is followed
by an analysis of results including linking them to iron ore resource
sustainability.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2014.02.046
0959-6526/Crown Copyright Ó 2014 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Please cite this article in press as: Yellishetty, M., Mudd, G.M., Substance flow analysis of steel and long term sustainability of iron ore resources
in Australia, Brazil, China and India, Journal of Cleaner Production (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2014.02.046
2 M. Yellishetty, G.M. Mudd / Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (2014) 1e11
2. Methodology and data sources
Throughout the paper the tonnages of iron ore and steel refer to
their CS equivalents and statistics are expressed in metric tonnes
unless otherwise stated. Modelling of future production and con-
sumption was done using regression analysis of the historical data
assuming a ‘business as usual’ scenario. The gross domestic product
(GDP) data are reported in nominal US dollars and were sourced
from the United Nations database.
2.1. Data sources
All production and exports data cover 1980 to 2008, and data are
primarily sourced from government, industry supported associa-
tions or research literature. In case of iron ore, both the United
States Geological Survey (USGS) and British Geological Survey
(BGS) reports were used, since they have reported annual data for
total ore production and estimated iron content. Similarly, the
USGS also reports data in respect of reserves and reserve base
annually in its ‘Mineral Commodities Section’.
The historic and future population data are available (for all
years) from the United Nations (UN) census. The UN population
projections of the world for the future are estimated using three
different variants, i.e. high, medium, and low.
Specific sources include:
 Iron ore production and export statistical information: USGS,
2010, 2012; BGS, 2008.
 Iron ore mineral reserves and reserves base: USGS, 2010, 2012
and individual company reports.
 Steel consumption and exports statistical information:
Worldsteel, 2012; Worldsteel, 2009; ISSB, 2008; and Worldsteel,
2007.
 Population and GDP statistical information: The World Bank,
2010; The United Nations, 2010; and UNSD, 2010.
2.2. System boundaries and scope of the study
The published amount of steel stock in each country under
study is the value of the ‘overall stocks’, which include, the stocks in
mineral reserves, stocks in industrial and governmental stockpiles,
stocks in products in use, stocks in obsolete products undisposed,
stocks in land-filled waste, and stocks in total. This amount is
derived from the difference between annual material inputs and
outputs. The material inputs consist of domestic steel consumption
and indirect steel imports in year. The material outputs consist of
the amount of recovered steel scrap (total of collected industrial
scrap and obsolete scrap) and indirect steel exports of finished steel
mill products (such as steel bars, sheets, and tubes) in a year.
However, the steel exports embedded in final products (such as
vehicles, machines, ships, etc.) are not included in the study,
because getting good statistics on the tonnage of steel products
exported (and imported) is very difficult. Therefore, the study
doesn’t capture the effect of steel being ‘lost’ from the country
through being part of ‘final products’ exported.
While selecting the countries for this study, we have considered
their strategic position and significance in the world’s iron and steel
trade and the size of their economy (e.g. production, consumption,
population size, and the GDP growth). The countries in this study
present diverse economic profiles and have been playing a major
role in the world’s iron and steel trade (i.e. production, consump-
tion and exports). On the one hand, Australia is distinctive among
industrialised countries for its degree of dependence on mineral
sector and exports with very low population size and strong
Please cite this article in press as: Yellishetty, M., Mudd, G.M., Substance flow analysis of steel and long term sustainability of iron ore resources
in Australia, Brazil, China and India, Journal of Cleaner Production (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2014.02.046
economy with high per capita GDP (besides Canada and Norway).
On the other hand, China and India represent developing countries
with very rapidly growing economies and massive population size,
and finally Brazil represents a transition economy with moderate
but growing economy and population size.
2.3. Steel de-accumulation modelling
The de-accumulation of steel stocks occurs as a result of exports
of iron ore, semi-finished and finished steel products and the steel
scrap from a country or region (all of which are expressed in their
crude steel (CS) equivalents). The export tonnages are expressed in
their CS equivalents [exports ¼ exports of {iron ore þ semi-finished
and finished steel products þ steel scrap}]. In calculating the ex-
ports in the future of iron ore/steel, exponential regression was
used. This assumption was based on the fact that since 1950 steel
consumption increased exponentially - exhibiting a high degree of
correlation between the actual and predicted values. Although the
analysis of residuals showed a fluctuating growth rate (between
1980 and 2008), for the purpose of future modelling we have
assumed an average growth rate (derived from historical data) and
the same was used to predict the future steel demand. This is a
conservative assumption and therefore the predicted values are on
their lower side. The other important reason for choosing an
exponential regression was the population size of China and India,
and their rapid economic progression in the past decade and a half.
China and India together constitutes 40% of the world population,
meaning that any modest increment in per capita consumption rate
in these countries implies a massive tonnage on a national/global
level.
2.4. Steel accumulation modelling
The steel consumption in this paper is defined as apparent per
capita consumption in CS equivalents [Apparent consumption ¼
Production þ Imports e Exports  Stock changes] and the accumu-
lation of steel stocks is essentially due to consumption in the anthro-
posphere. For the purpose of accumulation modelling, a weighted
arithmetic average value of 405 kg/capita/year of steel was assumed to
be needed for a country to sustain higher growth rate and develop-
ment (infrastructure, rails, industry, etc.). This per capita consumption
value was calculated by performing a weighted average analysis of the
historical data (1990e2008) of developed countries. Based on this
value, the future predictions for individual countries were made using
regression analysis and the analysis gave a reasonably good fit, with
fairly good scatter of residuals.
3. Iron ore resources and their availability
Iron is an abundant element in the Earth’s crust averaging from
2 to 3% in sedimentary rocks to 8.5% in basalt and gabbro, which
ranks iron the fourth most abundant element in the earth’s crust
(US EPA, 1994). A mineral deposit is generally defined as an ore
when it contains sufficient concentration of an element so as to
facilitate its economic extraction of the required quality. These ores
are extracted either through open-pit or underground mines and
processed to concentrate or extract the element of interest.
Over 300 minerals contain iron but five are the primary sources
of iron ore minerals: magnetite, hematite, goethite, siderite and
pyrite. Amongst these, four minerals are of major importance
because of their occurrence in large and economically minable
quantities (US EPA, 1994). The most important use of iron ore (up to
98%) is as primary input in steel making with the remainder being
used in applications, such as coal washeries and cement
manufacturing (IBIS World Industry Report, 2009; Indian Bureau of
 M. Yellishetty, G.M. Mudd / Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (2014) 1e11 3

Mines (2007)). Moreover, iron accounts for approximately 95% of all

metals used by modern industrial society (GSA, 2009).
The most important iron ore resources of the world are located in
Australia, Brazil, China, India, Russia and Ukraine. The world’s
currently identified reserves are estimated at 170,000 million
tonnes (Mt) crude ore containing 99,000 Mt iron. The total reserve
base has been estimated as 340,000 Mt (Table 1). The largest re-
serves are in Brazil, which ranks first with 29,000 Mt of reserves
with contained iron of 16,810 Mt. However, most mines in China
produce ores with less than 30% of iron content (UNCTD, 2007),
which is far less than the world average (60% Fe). Hence, these values
have been adjusted to the world’s average, which are expressed in
the parenthesis (Table 1). A time series trend (1996e2012) of iron
ore reserves as contained iron equivalents is shown in Fig. 1.
For the purpose of this paper we have used the USGS classifi-
cations in defining reserves, which is different to the JORC Code
Fig. 1. Iron ore reserves expressed as their contained iron equivalents (1996e2012)
(AusImm et al., 2004) or NI 43-101 standard (CIM, 2010). Thus, the [data source: USGS, 2012].
‘reserve’ figures used in this study are not JORC/NI compliant, but
that of the USGS classification. The USGS ‘reserve’ figures loosely
correspond to what is defined as ‘measured, indicated & inferred and due to the sharp drop in death rate there has been a constant
resources’ under the JORC code and/or NI 43-101 standard, and that rise in human population. The recent the United Nations census
the USGS’s ‘reserve base’ figure includes speculative estimates of presents the future population forecasts for the countries under
undiscovered resources that may or may not be economic. study (The United Nations, 2010). According this, in 2009 China and
Table 1 presents the raw iron ore and crude steel equivalents in India together accounted for about 40% of the world’s population;
the countries under study. According to the WorldSteel Association Brazil accounted for approximately 3%; and Australia to 0.3%. These
estimates, typically it takes 1.725 tonnes of iron ore to produce one estimates (1950e2050) are from the United Nations by taking the
tonne of crude steel through the basic oxygen furnace (BOF) route medium variant projections. By 2030, India will be the world’s most
(Worldsteel, 2010). Based on this assumption, all the iron ore ton- populated country surpassing China while Australia records a very
nages were converted into their equivalent crude steel tonnages low to moderate human population growth rate for the same
(Table 1). Table 1 also reports on production figures of iron ore and period.
steel (in 2010) in respective countries and their world ranking. The report also published the GDP growth rates of the countries
According to the reported data, China was ranked the first in both under the study. Accordingly, it was observed that both China and
iron ore and steel production in the world. In iron ore production India registered an exponential growth in their GDP, while Australia
Brazil was ranked the second, while in the steel production it was and Brazil have maintained a linear growth rate. For example, be-
ranked the ninth. India was ranked the fourth and fifth in iron ore tween 1990 and 2009, the annual GDP growth rates were 4.5, 3.9,
and steel production, respectively. Finally, Australia was ranked the 27 and 11.5% in Australia, Brazil, China and India, respectively.
third in its iron ore production whilst in steel it was ranked the
22nd in the world.
4.2. Steel consumption and exports e a regional perspective

4. Trends in population, GDP growth, steel consumption and
exports
4.1. Population and GDP growth
The world population has been growing since the onset of the
industrial revolution from about 1800 onwards. The gap between
births and deaths determines the rate at which population grows
For the purpose of accumulation modelling, a value of 405 kg/
capita/year of steel was used and is expected to cater to the current
and anticipated growth rates and development in countries under
study (infrastructure, rails, industry, etc.). This value was calculated
by performing a weighted average analysis of the historical data
(1990e2008) of developed countries (the country specific

Table 1
Iron ore reserves and reserve bases of selected countries in the world (data sources:
USGS, 2010, 2012).

Country Crude ore (Gt) Steel equivalents Production World

(Gt) in 2010 production
(Mt)c rank

Ra RBb Ra RBb Iron Steel Iron Steel

ore ore

Australia 24 45 13.91 26.08 433 7.3 2 22

Brazil 29 27 16.81 15.65 370 33 3 9
China 23 46 13.14 26.67 1070 627 1 1
(12.26)* (24.1)* (7.11)* (15.46)*
India 7 9.8 4.05 5.7 230 68 4 5
World 170 340 99 197 2590 1417 e e
a
Reserves.
b
Reserves base.
c
1.725 tonnes of iron ore ¼ 1 tonne of crude steel; *China values have been Fig. 2. Time series data of steel consumption in developed countries [data sources: The
adjusted to world average ore grades. World Bank, 2010; UNSD, 2010; The United Nations, 2010].

Please cite this article in press as: Yellishetty, M., Mudd, G.M., Substance flow analysis of steel and long term sustainability of iron ore resources
in Australia, Brazil, China and India, Journal of Cleaner Production (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2014.02.046
4 M. Yellishetty, G.M. Mudd / Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (2014) 1e11
population for that period as the weight) [e.g. Australia (346 kg/
capita), Canada (530 kg/capita), Europe-15 (392 kg/capita), and USA
(415 kg/capita)] (Fig. 2). Fig. 3 presents a time series trend of annual
per-capita steel consumption in Australia, Brazil, China and India.
The other studies (Hatayama et al., 2010; Mueller, 2006; Crompton,
2000) have either used intensity of use or saturation of per-capita
material stock hypothesis in their modelling.
For this period the average per-capita consumption remained
steady in these countries. Accordingly, regression analyses was
carried out and found very good correlations between actual and
projected values, for example China (R2 ¼ 0.83, linear regression),
Brazil (R2 ¼ 0.66, linear regression) and India (R2 ¼ 0.84, linear
regression) e all exhibited reasonably a good fit (with reasonably
good scatter of residuals).
Fig. 4 presents the trends of exports of iron ore, semi-finished
and finished steel (SFFS) products and steel scrap (expressed in
crude steel equivalents). Australia is distinct among other countries
under study that it is a net exporter of steel products (i.e. gross
exports minus gross import), whereas the other countries have had
mixed trends (Fig. 4). In the study period, Australia registered
nearly 300 and 150% growth in iron ore and scrap exports,
respectively. Brazil and India have been exporters of iron ore and
SFFS products. Brazil registered a growth of 230% in its iron ore
exports whilst its SFFS exports have grown by 400% since 1980.
Brazil’s scrap exports were modest, while India recorded a fluctu-
ating trend over the period (1980e2009). There were no iron ore
exports from China, while registering dwindling scrap exports
since 1980. However, since 1980 the Chinese SFFS product exports
have registered all-time peak and continue to follow the growth
pattern.
Fig. 5 presents cumulative export trends of crude steel for each
of the countries under study [exports ¼ exports of {iron ore þ SFFS
products þ steel scrap}]. The steel exports form a major part of this
study (Hatayama et al., 2010; Daigo et al., 2007; Wang et al., 2007).
Both iron ore and scarp tonnages are expressed in crude steel
equivalents. In converting iron ore and scrap tonnages to crude
steel equivalents, we have divided iron ore tonnages by a factor of
1.725 (Worldsteel, 2010) and the scrap tonnages by 1.1 (Worldsteel,
2008; Birat et al., 2006). Later, a regression analysis was performed
on the data presented in Fig. 5, which gave reasonably good fit
between predicted and actual data with coefficient of determina-
tion (R2) values of 0.947 (Australia and Brazil), 0.85 (China) and 0.71
(India) (all with exponential regression). Overall, from this analysis
it is evident that all the countries reported in this study are
exporting steel in one form or other (either exporting iron ore, SFFS
products and/or steel scrap). Australia registered a 270% increase
Fig. 3. Steel consumption trends (in crude steel equivalents) the countries under study
(data sources: Worldsteel, 2012; IISB Ltd, 2008; and Worldsteel, 2007).
Please cite this article in press as: Yellishetty, M., Mudd, G.M., Substance flow analysis of steel and long term sustainability of iron ore resources
in Australia, Brazil, China and India, Journal of Cleaner Production (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2014.02.046
while Brazil with 260% and India with 340% in their overall steel
exports.
5. Results of the analysis
From the regression analysis of historical data (Figs. 3 and 5),
empirical relationships were established (Table 2) to calculate
annual accumulation and de-accumulation of steel stocks in each
country. These empirical relationships can be used to estimate the
rate of accumulation and de-accumulation of steel stocks in a
country in a given year. The methodology is explained below.
In estimating the steel accumulation, first, the country specific
trends of per capita steel consumption were established by using
the equations obtained from the regression analysis (Fig. 3). Based
on the actual consumption data for the period 1980e2009, future
steel consumption projections were made using regression anal-
ysis. In estimating the accumulation due to consumption by soci-
eties (as a result of use of various steel products by the society),
these estimates assume that the steel consumption in China, Brazil
and India will grow linearly with R2 values of 0.83, 0.66 and 0.84,
respectively. For Australia, it was assumed that the current per
capita steel consumption (i.e. 0.405 tonnes/capita/year) will remain
constant over the period for which the projections are made. This
critical limitation of these estimates must be considered.
Secondly, the per-capita steel consumption (tonnes/capita) in a
given year was multiplied by the population size (million people) of
the country in the same year plus any addition and/or deletion
(depending on whether resources have grown or contracted in
quantity during the period) e which gave the total steel con-
sumption by the economy in that year (AY(i) in Mt) (Table 2). The
population projections and the basis for the same were already
discussed in Section 4.1.
In calculating the de-accumulation of steel stocks (DAY(i) in Mt)
from a country under study, it was assumed that the de-
accumulation occurs as a result of exports of iron ore, SFFS prod-
ucts and the scrap (expressed in crude steel equivalents). Then,
empirical relationships were established based on regression
analysis of time series trends of exports (1980e2008) (see Fig. 5).
The regression analysis gave a very good correlation between pre-
dicted and actual data (i.e. with R2 values of 0.94 (Australia and
Brazil), 0.85 (China) and 0.71 (India)).
The equations in the Table 2 were used to forecast the steel
accumulation and de-accumulation from each country under study
to year 2040 and the same are illustrated in Fig. 6. The modelling
was performed using the empirical equations illustrated in Fig. 5. In
calculating the de-accumulation in a given year of a country, we
subtracted the exports in that year from the net reserves left at the
beginning of the same year. This gave the total reserves left at the
end of each year and accordingly the results are plotted in Fig. 6.
This analysis forecasted the steel accumulation and de-
accumulation from each country to year 2040 (Fig. 6), assuming
that the mineral reserves are static, which is a limitation. This
assumption is based on the time series data in Fig. 1, suggesting that
iron ore reserves are dynamic assets and they either have grown or
contracted in time and hence it is difficult to account for any such
change. However, the equations to calculate accumulation at any
point in time in the future considers this important fact and thus
the accumulation term includes any additional reserves found after
year 2010 (Table 2).
6. Current substance flow trends and sustainability
challenges
An important principle of sustainable development (SD) is to
deliver social and economic development without compromising
 M. Yellishetty, G.M. Mudd / Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (2014) 1e11 5

Fig. 4. Exports of iron ore, semi and finished steel and steel scrap trends (all tonnages expressed in crude steel equivalents) (data sources: Worldsteel, 2012; BGS, 2008; and IISB Ltd,
2008).

the environmental quality (Bretschger and Smulders, 2011; Bond
et al., 2001; Matthews et al., 2000). Both the health and safety of
the anthroposphere and the environmental carrying capacity must
be considered in SD studies, regardless of whether the focus is on
sustainable environmental planning, resources management, or
socioeconomic development. SFA makes sustainability assessment
Fig. 5. Net exports of steel substances by a country (expressed in crude steel equiva-
lents) (data sources: Worldsteel, 2012; and IISB Ltd, 2008).
results comparable, verifiable, complete, and reliable by a) identi-
fying critical pathways and/or links and key substances in the
anthroposphere, and b) allowing the dynamic interaction between
material flow and social, economic and/or environmental processes
to be analyzed. Thus, there is a close relationship between sub-
stance flows and SD.
Minerals and metals are essential components of our day-to-day
lives and are indicative of a country’s economic wealth as they
create value by meeting human needs. Metals have historically
been associated with industrial development and improved stan-
dard of living, and consequently play an important role in our
modern societies (Giurco, 2005). Steel has played and continues to
play a very significant role in fostering the growth of developing
countries, especially when they are industrialising (Tilton, 1989).
This dominant role of steel in human societies around the world
throughout the 20th century and its continuance in the current
century indicate it’s importance. The steel industry is a very
important industry from both economic and environmental per-
spectives as steel is the predominant material used by societies
around the globe to the extent that the current age could be called
the ‘steel age’.
In Fig. 6 different future scenarios of steel stocks in the four
countries are modelled. When considering the depletion of steel
stocks (iron ore resources) due to consumption and exports, the

Please cite this article in press as: Yellishetty, M., Mudd, G.M., Substance flow analysis of steel and long term sustainability of iron ore resources
in Australia, Brazil, China and India, Journal of Cleaner Production (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2014.02.046
6 M. Yellishetty, G.M. Mudd / Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (2014) 1e11

Table 2 Brazil by value and plays a vital role in these export-driven econ-
Accumulation and de-accumulation of steel stocks. omies. In addition, due to their small to moderate population size,
Country DAY(i) (tonnes AY(i) (tonnes of crude steel equivalents) these countries’ accumulation of steel stocks is far less compared
of crude steel with their de-accumulation and thus resulting in foreseeable
equivalents) exhaustion of steel stocks relatively much sooner compared with
h i h i
Australia A1  ek1 ðY2000Þ CSY pYðiÞ
þ
Ri;Y Ri;2010 If AY(i) > CSY other countries, such as China and India.
1000 1:725
h i In case of China and India, which are characterised by their
Brazil A2  ek2 ðY2000Þ pYðiÞ Ri;Y Ri;2010 If AY(i)  CSY
1000 ½a1 ½Y  2000 þ 102 þ 1:725
h i massive population size and rapid economic growth, both accu-
China A3  ek3 ðY2000Þ pYðiÞ Ri;Y Ri;2010 If AY(i)  CSY
1000 ½a2 ½Y  2000 þ 105 þ 1:725 mulation and de-accumulation is significantly high. Especially,
h i
India A4  ek4 ðY2000Þ pYðiÞ Ri;Y Ri;2010 If AY(i)  CSY China will exhaust its known reserves of iron ore within a short
1000 ½a3 ½Y  2000 þ 33:1 þ 1:725
period of time from now at the current production, consumption
Where: DAY(i) ¼ de-accumulation in year ‘Y’ of country ‘i’ (tonnes of crude steel
and exports (i.e. by 2027). However, at the same time, China’s
equivalents); AY(i) ¼ accumulation in year ‘Y’ of country ‘i’ (tonnes of crude steel
equivalents); A1 to A4 ¼ production constants (year 2000 as base: A1 ¼ 99,402,908; accumulation outcompetes its de-accumulation and thus building-
A2 ¼ 100,436,104; A3 ¼ 11,168,960 and A4 ¼ 19,862,648); CSY ¼ Crude steel per up huge quantity of steel stocks for the same period. In India,
capita in the year (405 kg/year); Y ¼ Year; k1 to k3 ¼ depletion coefficients accumulation and de-accumulation happens at a similar rate e
(k1 ¼ 0.0472; k2 ¼ 0.0426; k3 ¼ 0.17; k4 ¼ 0.051); a1 to a3 ¼ accumulation co-
meaning that the currently known reserves in India will lost until
efficients (a1 ¼ 2.43; a2 ¼ 15.23; a3 ¼ 1.33); pY(i) ¼ population in year ‘Y’ of country ‘i’
(millions); Ri, Y e Iron ore reserves in year ‘Y’ of country ‘i’ in tonnes; Ri, 2010 e Iron
2045. Further, it is also important to consider the potential popu-
ore reserves in year ‘2010’ of country ‘i’ in tonnes (as given at Table 1). lation growth in China and India in the future years when we think
of accumulation in respect of these countries.
Although the study doesn’t capture the effect of steel being lost
forecast indicate that Australian and Brazilian iron ore (steel) re-
from a country through being part of final products exported (such
serves (currently known) are likely to be exhausted by year 2044
as vehicles, machines and ships), it is very important to have an
and 2050, respectively. However, the iron ore industry is now one of
appreciation of those quantities considering the current likely size
the largest individual commodity sectors in both Australia and

Fig. 6. Steel accumulation and de-accumulation in the selected countries.

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 M. Yellishetty, G.M. Mudd / Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (2014) 1e11
of such a figure for China. For example, a report published by the US
Department of Transport (RITA, 2012) identifies the volume of
goods passing through the top 20 container ports in the world in
2008. This includes six (6) ports in China, with a total volume of
114.69 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs). Assuming that a
typical TEU can carry w20 tonnes of goods, and with an assumption
that about 5e10% of the mass of goods contained is made up of
steel, this translates into 115e230 Mt of steel. While some of this
will be imported goods, the analysis excluded container traffic
through the w130 other (smaller) export shipping ports in China.
A study by Yellishetty et al. (2011a) observed that the reserves
are dynamic assets and are changing with the time, either they
have grown or contracted, depending on the mineral and its
abundance. Due to the ongoing exploration efforts in the countries
under the study as well as elsewhere in the world, such as Liberia,
Guinea, Cameroon and other places, there are opportunities for
new iron ore producing countries to enter into the market. This
additionally could easily add several thousand million tonnes of ore
production to world supplies. Therefore, it can be said that reserves
are likely to expand since new discoveries and new technologies
are constantly expanding reserves (R) and reserves base (RB)
(Tilton, 2003).
Concern has been repeatedly expressed over decades that the
world is running out of abiotic natural resources. The most famous,
perhaps, was ‘The Limits to Growth’ (Meadows et al., 1972). This
study included a systems dynamic model called “World3” designed
to qualitatively model the interaction of global population, social
issues, consumption, environmental impacts, mineral and energy
resources and the economy (including the recent 30-year update;
Meadows et al., 2004).
The important reason behind the concerns over scarcity/
depletion could be because of misleading interpretation of the data
on the ‘reserves’ of various mineral resources due to different
reporting systems. This could also be partly due to surplus of
minerals available for mining and use and thereby no attention is
being paid in exploring for new resources. Currently, there are a
number of reporting systems used worldwide e leading to an
inconstant approach in reporting the mineral resources or ore re-
serves. The JORC code was named after its committee, the Joint Ore
Reserves Committee Code e or ‘JORC’ Code, with its first edition
released in 1974, and many updates and revision have been issued
since. There are also equivalent codes in other major mining
countries, such as USGS (USA), National Instrument 43-101 (Can-
ada), SAMREC (South Africa) and so on. The USGS ‘reserve’ figures
loosely correspond to what is defined to as ‘measured, indicated &
inferred resources’ under the JORC code and/or NI 43-101 standard,
and that the USGS’s ‘reserve base’ figure includes speculative esti-
mates of undiscovered resources that may or may not be economic.
The declining ore grades or quality is another fundamental
problem facing the global mining industry (e.g. Mudd, 2007, 2009,
2010) and hence impurities and ore grades must also be considered
in conjunction with ore quality (Yellishetty et al., 2012). This
declining trend in ore grades means that for extracting each tonne
of metal we would have to mine more ore, creating more tailings
and waste rock and requiring more energy, water and other inputs
per unit mineral production (Mudd, 2007, 2010). The end result is
significant upward pressure on the environmental footprint of
mineral production e at a time when the world is facing both peak
oil and climate change due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas
emissions. As such factors are addressed through such schemes as
emissions trading or a carbon tax, this will inevitably link with
metals prices.
Whereas Giurco et al. (2010) argued that the endowment of
minerals may not be exhausted, but the extraction of these min-
erals is becoming more challenging with passage of time. For
Please cite this article in press as: Yellishetty, M., Mudd, G.M., Substance flow analysis of steel and long term sustainability of iron ore resources
in Australia, Brazil, China and India, Journal of Cleaner Production (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2014.02.046
7
example, the declining ore grades are indicative of a shift from
‘easier and cheaper’ to more ‘complex and expensive’ processing.
Declining resource quality has also lead to declining productivity
(Topp et al., 2008) and the energy intensity, in terms of $/kWh, has
subsequently risen by 50% over the last decade (Sandy and Syed,
2008).
The recent study by Yellishetty et al. (2012) compiled specific
energy and water consumption data (per tonne) in respect of iron
ore railed as well as the land area used in the iron ore mines of
Australia, and the trend would be similar in the other countries as
well. This study pointed out that there is a gradual increase in water
and energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per
tonne of iron ore railed to the ports. When we look at exploiting low
grade iron ore resources, the environmental intensity increases
even further e in a way that more energy, more water, more GHG
emissions, and more mine wastes. Furthermore, every bit of iron
ore utilised to produce a tonne of steel contributes to an average of
about two tonnes of emissions e partially due to mining and
transportation, but mostly due to the smelting/refining with coking
coal. Hence, Yellishetty et al. (2011a) argued that when considering
abiotic resources and their depletion concerns, it is critical to
examine trends over time, as well as aspects such as ore grade and
impurities.
Economically, both Australia and Brazil rely heavily on their
mineral exports in general, iron ore resources in particular for their
international purchasing power and thereby heavy public in-
vestments are diverted in support of the minerals industry, and
negatively impacting on the other sectors of the economy (Ye,
2006). The recent resources boom in world is mainly charac-
terised by a surge in exports and this export expansion has put
upward pressures on the exchange rate (Ye, 2006). Ye (2006)
further observed that any appreciation of the exchange rate
would squeeze other exporters as well as firms in import-
competing sector. As the high costs would have to be paid by all
sectors, the profitability of other exporters and import-competing
industries would be squeezed. These effects are known as the
‘Gregory Thesis’ in Australia (Gregory, 1976) and the ‘Dutch Disease’
in Europe and elsewhere (The Economists, 1977). The recent
warning by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to resource-rich
economies to manage their resources wisely to avoid catastrophic
consequences to the economy is an indication of the side-effects of
too much reliance on mineral exports. The IMF/World Bank have
advised the resource-rich economies of dire consequences of
stronger commodity prices and the damaging effects this could
have on the economy through interest rate rise, consumer prices,
etc (van der Ploeg, 2010).
Despite high prices for mineral commodities in recent years, the
mineral dependent economies (Australia and Brazil) rarely earn as
much from their exports as they spend on imported goods and raw
materials (Giurco and Mason, 2011). Furthermore, the very nature
of mineral exports and high commodity prices is that they both are
sensitive to demand. So, any downturn in the demand for iron ore
means that all of the capacity building and infrastructure invest-
ment at the mines will be of less value (Giurco and Mason, 2011).
Whereas Arezki and Brückner (2012) have observed that com-
modity price booms result in a reduction in external debt levels in
democratic countries, implying that more money came in than out,
but little or no reduction in autocratic countries - mainly due the
spending behaviour of the government. So, this clearly indicates the
fact the problem lies more with the nature of the government than
the exposure to minerals itself.
In a recent study Yellishetty et al. (2011a and 2011b) observed
that the minerals worldwide have commonly been found in the
regions that are remote to major commercial/industrial centres and
it is believed that these mineral resources are critical in early low-
8 M. Yellishetty, G.M. Mudd / Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (2014) 1e11

Fig. 7. Steel production trends in the selected countries (total and EAF routes) [data sources: IISB Ltd, 2008].

income stages of the development process of a country (Auty, 1993)
and thus play an important role in regional development. This is
particularly true in the context of Brazilian, Chinese and Indian
economies where mining activities are expected to be responsible
for raising tax related revenues (foreign exchange) to governments;
provide rural job avenues; raise the standard of living as well as
contributing to regional development (Davis and Tilton, 2008;
ICMM, 2006; Tanzer, 1980). But, considering the very nature of
mining enterprise (ie. sensitive to market demand), it is quite likely
that mining related employment is subjected to boom and bust
cycles.
Firstly, when there is a demand for minerals (like now) much of
the human and capital resources will be invested into to one sector
(ie. mining) mainly due to so called ‘wage inflation’, threatening to
push other facets of economy into skills-shortage mode, which is
extremely risky. Secondly, considering the finite lives of mines (of
typically say 10e40 years), and during the periods of economic
bursts and/or recessions, there is a danger of the mining-dependent
communities declining into a large-scale unemployment upon
closure of mines.
Fig. 7 presents steel production trends including trends in the
recycling performance in the four countries, assuming that all of
recycled scrap is used in electric arc furnace (EAF) steel production.
In reality, even the basic oxygen furnace (BOF) technology can
utilise between 10 and 30% steel scrap in steel production besides
70e90% molten iron. Although, optimistically, recycling is seen as
an alternative means of meeting the material demands of the so-
ciety in the future amid fears of resource depletion, the real chal-
lenge with recycling is that there is not enough recycled metal
available to satisfy the demand. Moreover, once a steel product goes
into the anthropogenic engine cycle, it remains there for about 15e
17 years depending on an individual product’s residence time (Birat
et al., 2006; Matsuno et al., 2007). As a consequence, much of the
steel production today is still derived from new iron ore (i.e.
through BOF route), with recycling providing just about 30% of new
steel production.

Please cite this article in press as: Yellishetty, M., Mudd, G.M., Substance flow analysis of steel and long term sustainability of iron ore resources
in Australia, Brazil, China and India, Journal of Cleaner Production (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2014.02.046
 M. Yellishetty, G.M. Mudd / Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (2014) 1e11
The trends in production, consumption and exports of steel
products are presented in Fig. 6. For example, Australia and Brazil
have iron ore and metallurgical coal resources in abundance, and
most of which is exported to China and Europe (Fig. 5). On the one
hand, in 2008, Australia exported a total of approximately 1.71 Mt
of steel scrap which is nearly 18% of its total steel use (assuming
that approximately 1.1 tonnes of steel scarp is needed to produce
one tonne of steel). On the other hand, in 2008 Australia’s EAF share
of total steel was just about 19%. Assuming that all the exported
scarp of Australia was utilised within its economy, the EAF share
would have been 37% of Australia’s total steel production (consid-
ering that all the steel scrap will go into EAF steel making). Hence, it
is more reasonable for Australia and Brazil to produce and export
primary steel while India and China (with high population and
relatively moderate mineral resources) would be better to service
their economies by comprehensive recycling of steel scrap topped
up with primary steel to meet the demands (Fig. 6). From either
environmental or economical view points, it is very unreasonable
for Australia and Brazil to import iron ore, SFFS and steel scrap.
Another key reason for conducting an SFA is to highlight the
impact on the environment of pollution arising from material going
into landfills. Although the current analysis doesn’t include the loss
of Fe units in the iron and steel making process (which are w10%), it
is essential to have an appreciation of these quantities amid the
current rate of steel production in the world. It is also important to
have a regard for the amount steel scrap that is lost to landfills.
According to a recent SFA for steel in China (Wikipedia, 2012),
about 9 Mt of Fe units are lost each year. Over time, this figure will
end up being a significant figure e suggesting a potential (albeit
expensive) opportunity to ‘mine’ landfill in the future.
It is generally accepted that reducing the amount of materials
consumed by the anthroposphere will lead to less human distur-
bance of the environment, making development more sustainable
(Huang et al., 2012; Crompton, 1999). However, in addition to the
impacts caused by gross flow volumes, the properties and quality of
the material or substance flow also have environmental impacts. It
was also observed that the other most critically important
component of these substance flows is the environmental burden
due to transportation, either by rail, road and/or sea. According to a
recent study by Yellishetty et al. (2010) the steel industry’s material
flows (seaborne transport) could alone contribute up to 10% CO2
emissions (per tonne of crude steel production), which is quite
important while considering the environmental impacts due to
steel substance flows. Thus, when we think of abiotic resource
availability or scarcity, mainly from a regional perspective, the
problem is imminent in the form of environmental, economic and
social perspectives.
Fig. 8 illustrates the relationship between per-capita steel con-
sumption and the GDP (real US$) for Australia, Brazil, China and
India (1998e2007). It is evident that Australia being a developed
nation has a higher per-capita steel consumption rate (an average of
over 400 kg) which correlates with its average GDP per-capita of US$
27,000. In contrast, in the developing countries, the average per
capita steel consumption rates are approximately 160 kg and their
average GDP per capita is just below US$ 4000. China, although a
developing country by means of its per capita GDP, had almost
340 kg of per capita steel consumption. In contrast, Brazil and India
had per capita steel consumption rates of 110 and 50 kg, respectively.
The demand for metals is commensurate with the development
of human societies, which in a way depends on society’s economic
position. For example, a country that is constructing roads, rail-
ways, public utilities, and building infrastructure would create
more demand for metals than that of a developed country that has
nearly adequate amounts of transportation, housing, and basic
services. The best example for this is China, which has set
Please cite this article in press as: Yellishetty, M., Mudd, G.M., Substance flow analysis of steel and long term sustainability of iron ore resources
in Australia, Brazil, China and India, Journal of Cleaner Production (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2014.02.046
9
450
400
350
Steel consumption (kg/capita)
300
250
200
150
Australia Brazil
100
50 China India
0
0 3 5 8 10 13 15 18 20 23 25 28 30 33 35 38 40 43 45 48 50
GDP ('000 US$/capita)
Fig. 8. GDP per capita verses steel consumption in the selected countries (1980e2008)
(data sources: The United Nations, 2010; The World Bank, 2010).
substantial emphasis on creating the infrastructure through various
projects to which much of the funding comes from the state.
The unequal distribution of steel consumption patterns within
developed and developing countries is quite evident (see Fig. 8),
which mainly happens as a result of countries’ purchasing power
that comes from their monetary wealth. In addition, the current
prices of many mineral commodities are not that high so that the
mineral exporting countries would benefit to the extent they would
in next ten year’s time (if they have mined and sold the minerals in
the future). These cheap prices could also result from exploitation
of labour in the developing countries like Brazil, China and India
coupled with minimal environmental liability costs associated with
mineral extraction in those countries. If these countries continue to
rely on their mineral exports they would have left with marginal to
very low minerals for their own use for the future generation’s
requirement (i.e. mines below the ground these countries would
have been moved to above the ground of rich nations). It is from
this premise many argue that it is advantageous for the underde-
veloped countries to leave the minerals in the ground until better
prices are obtained or indigenous technologies developed for pro-
cessing (Auty, 1993; Tanzer, 1980).
7. Conclusions
This paper examined SFA of steel in Australia, Brazil, China and
India. The work is based on the data from several government and
non-government reports. The result shows that China has a great
dependency on the foreign resource in the steel industry while
Australia and Brazil rely more on their iron ore exports. It is clearly
evidenced that the current pattern of production, use and exports
of steel is proving to be environmentally stressful through seaborne
transportation in the form of flows to and from the countries. The
analysis also found that Australia and Brazil in particular will
exhaust their steel stocks very soon, if they continued on the similar
path. The paper also presented a discussion on how steel substance
flows can impact on sustainability of our societies e in social and
environmental terms as well as economic.
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Please cite this article in press as: Yellishetty, M., Mudd, G.M., Substance flow analysis of steel and long term sustainability of iron ore resources
in Australia, Brazil, China and India, Journal of Cleaner Production (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2014.02.046