GNGTS 2014 - Agostinelli

Analysis of macroseismic fields using statistical data
depth functions
R. Rotondi(1) C. Agostinelli(2)
(1)
Istituto di Matematica Applicata e Tecnologie Informatiche
Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Milano – Italy
reni@mi.imati.cnr.it
(2)
Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics
Ca’ Foscari University, Venice – Italy
claudio@unive.it
33◦ Convegno GNGTS

Bologna – November 25-27, 2014
Outline
1 Aim: ’automatic’ identification of attenuation patterns
2 Data depth functions
3 Depth functions for sets of convex hulls
4 Ex 1. - INGV www.haisentitoilterremoto.it database
5 Ex 2. - Mt Etna, DBMI11 database
6 Stochastic modelling of seismic attenuation
C. Agostinelli, R. Rotondi (CNR-IMATI) Statistical data depth functions November 27, 2014 2 / 20
Macroseismic fields
Set of the effectsncaused by an earthquake in termsoof macroseismic intensity

(j) (i)
Database D(i) = (Lat, Lon)(j) , Is ; j = 1, . . . , Nsites , i = 1, . . . , Nfields
Location Lat Lon Is

LINERA 37.659 15.149 9.5
LINERA 37.666 15.137 9.5
PASSOPOMO 37.675 15.119 9.0
COSENTINI 37.666 15.133 8.5 1989/01/29
MARIA VERGINE 37.660 15.142 8.5 14.9 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.3
DAGALA 37.700 15.143 8.0

ZERBATE 37.636 15.120 8.0
ROCCA D’API 37.686 15.119 8.0 37.8 37.8
CIVITA (ZAFFERANA) 37.679 15.113 8.0
Is
BONGIARDO 37.686 15.135 8.0 11
ARDICHETTO 37.680 15.136 8.0 10
SANTA MARIA AMMALATI 37.643 15.157 8.0 9
PISANO 37.664 15.109 7.0 37.7 37.7

8
7
MONTEROSSO 37.644 15.093 7.0 6
GUZZI 37.636 15.168 7.0 5
GROTTE 37.676 15.181 7.0 4
FELICETTO 37.665 15.152 7.0 3
BALATELLE TIMONE 37.631 15.151 7.0 37.6 37.6
PRAINO 37.730 15.127 7.0

MILO 37.722 15.116 7.0
GUARDIA 37.666 15.167 7.0 14.9 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.3
CECCAZZO 37.651 15.140 6.5

.. .. .. ..
. . . .
ACIREALE 37.613 15.166 5.0
TRECASTAGNI 37.614 15.081 5.0
BELPASSO 37.590 14.979 4.0
Seismic risk reduction requires to:
assign the intensity at any distance from the epicentre for hazard evaluation
forecast the damage level that can be caused in a site by a future earthquake of a
given intensity and epicentre
...
To do this we need to identify a pattern for the intensity decay

and to model seismic attenuation
⇓
Data depth is a nonparametric method for the analysis of multivariate (also
functional) data sets.
Depth functions
Aims are to:

attribute a sensible ordering to observations in a sample from the center outwards
estimation of the central tendency (global pattern) of the curves
estimation of the variability among curves and visualization by means of the central
regions
detection of outlying curves
clustering and classification
Half-region depth function
Let us consider
- the space C (T ) of real continuous functions y = y (t) on some compact interval T ⊂ R
- a collection of functions yn = {yi ∈ C (T ) : i = 1, · · · , n}
- G (y ) = {(t, y (t)) : t ∈ T }, the graph of a function y
• The hypograph (hyp) and the epigraph (epi) of the function y ∈ C (T ) are defined as:
hyp(y ) = {(t, z) ∈ T × R : z ≤ y (t)} epi(y ) = {(t, z) ∈ T × R : z ≥ y (t)}

.
• The proportions of graphs that belong to the hypograph (epigraph) of a fyunction y
are:
n n
1X 1X
Rhyp (y ; yn ) = 1(G (yi ) ⊂ hyp(y )) = 1(yi (t) ≤ y (t), ∀t ∈ T ) ,
n i=1 n i=1
n n
1X 1X
Repi (y ; yn ) = 1(G (yi ) ⊂ epi(y )) = 1(yi (t) ≥ y (t), ∀t ∈ T ) .
n i=1 n i=1
Def. 1 For a functional data set yn , the half-region depth of y is
dHR = min(Rhyp (y ; yn ), Repi (y ; yn ))
If Y = Y (ω, t) is a stochastic process with trajectories in C (T ), then

dHR = min(Pr(G (Y ) ⊂ hyp(y )), Pr(G (Y ) ⊂ epi(y ))
For the analysis of curves with many crossing points
12
10
8
Modulo
6
4
2
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Angle
Def. 2 The modified version of the half-region depth of y w.r.t. the set yn is
dMHR (y , yn ) = min {EL(y , yn ), HL(y , yn )}

where
n
X
EL(y ; yn ) = (nλ(T ))−1 λ (t ∈ T : y (t) ≤ yi (t))
i=1
Xn
HL(y ; yn ) = (nλ(T ))−1 λ (t ∈ T : y (t) ≥ yi (t))
i=1
Local half-region depth - identification of partial centers
For a given non negative function τ , the closed negative slab hyp(y ; τ ) is the intersection
between hyp(y ) and epi(y − τ ):
hyp(y; τ ) = hyp(y ) ∩ epi(y − τ ) = {(t, z) : t ∈ T , y (t) − τ ≤ z ≤ y (t)}
and analogously
epi(y; τ ) = hyp(y + τ ) ∩ epi(y ) = {(t, z) : t ∈ T , y (t) ≤ z ≤ y (t) + τ }
where τ = quantile of order α (i.e. α = 30%) of the set {τi,j , i < j, i, j = 1, . . . , n} being
τi,j = sup |yi (t) − yj (t)|

t∈T
12
10
8
Modulo
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4
2
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Angle
Fixed ∆I = I0 − Is = i
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1 consider all the sites with decay not exceeding i
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(origin = epicentre)
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3 turning counterclockwise, denote each vertex by its

2.5
polar coordinates w.r.t. the origin=epicentre (angle

2.0
from the positive horizontal line, distance from the

Modulo
1.5
origin)
1.0
4 represent these points on the two-dimensional plane

0.5
(angle, modulus) and join them by a straight line

0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6
Angle
Fixed ∆I (cont.)
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5 repeat this procedure for each field and collect all the
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piecewise linear curves in the same graph

2
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
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6 assign a measure of centrality to each curve so that the

12
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curve with the highest value illustrates the

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representative pattern within the set of curves

4
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exclude ‘ouliers’ by examining just the curves within a

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Angle
band (about 30% of the max width)
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the darker the curves are, the more similar they are
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median τn is the curve from the sample which
maximizes the local modified half-region depth
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Ex 1. - INGV www.haisentitoilterremoto.it database
Macroseismic surveys based on questionnaires compiled on line by volunteers
May 20, 2012, Emilian Padana plain - local time 01:13:27, ML = 4.1, I0 = V − VI
n = 1322 questionnaires
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Distance from Epicenter

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0 Angle
Convex hull enclosing sites with

Same convex hull as function of the
∆I = I0 − Is ≤ 2
angle and epicentre-vertex distance
Ex 1. - all events of May 20, 2012
120
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60
40
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0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Angle
150
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(top) Curves representing the convex hulls enclosing the sites with ∆I ≤ 2
(bottom) Local modified half-region depth for a given curve
Ex 1. - all events between May 20 and June 1, 2012 (N=145)
∆I≤1 ∆I≤2 ∆I≤3

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∆I≤4 150
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Prototypes of isoseismal lines for ∆I ≤ 1, 2, 3, 4 → circular global pattern.
Ex 2. - Mt Etna
15˚00' 15˚15'
Database:
13 fields
37˚48' 37˚48'
VII ≤ I0 ≤ VIII
from 1865 to 2002
37˚36' 37˚36' 8 ≤ no. data points ≤ 106
15˚00' 15˚15'
∆I≤1 ∆I≤2
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∆I≤3
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Ex 2.e - Mt Etna → ellipse
Main faults on the eastern slope of Mt. Etna
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15.1 15.2
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37.6 37.6
15.1 15.2
EU project (joint work with C. Brambilla, E. Varini)
Probability model of Is
- I0 , Is , ∆I are random variables

- ∆I depends on I0 and on the distance d from the source
- prediction requires the expected value and a measure of its uncertainty
• fixed I0 , in each bin j Scheme of isotropic decay

Is = I0 − ∆I follows the binomial distribution •
Binom(Is | I0 , pj ): •
• •
r_4
r_3
i0 • •
pji (1 − pj )i0 −i
• r_2
Pr {Is = i | I0 = i0 , pj } = E• r_1
•
i •
•
• •
•
• random variable pj ∼ Beta distribution •
Z pj
Γ(αj + βj )
Beta(pj ; αj , βj ) = x αj −1 (1 − x)βj −1 dx
Γ(αj )Γ(βj ) 0
2
1
information on anisotropy is included into an elliptical P3 P2
model by making a plane transformation
0
P4
−1
P1
−2
−2 −1 0 1 2
Estimation and Forecast
2002/10/29, Io VIII: observed
37.521°N 37.575°N 37.629°N 37.684°N 37.738°N 37.792°N 37.847°N

Is
1 12
2 2002/10/29 VIII
3 10
intensity decay ∆ I
4
5
6 8
7
Mt Etna region 8
6
2002/10/29 4
Anisotropic model 2
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
distance [km]
14.941°E 15.01°E 15.079°E 15.147°E 15.216°E 15.285°E 15.353°E
2002/10/29, Io VIII: Is exceeded with 25% 2002/10/29, Io VIII: forecast 2002/10/29, Io VIII: Is exceeded with 75%
37.521°N 37.575°N 37.629°N 37.684°N 37.738°N 37.792°N 37.847°N
37.521°N 37.575°N 37.629°N 37.684°N 37.738°N 37.792°N 37.847°N
37.521°N 37.575°N 37.629°N 37.684°N 37.738°N 37.792°N 37.847°N

Is Is Is
1 1 1
2 2 2
3 3 3
4 4 4
5 5 5
6 6 6
7 7 7
8 8 8
14.941°E 15.01°E 15.079°E 15.147°E 15.216°E 15.285°E 15.353°E 14.941°E 15.01°E 15.079°E 15.147°E 15.216°E 15.285°E 15.353°E 14.941°E 15.01°E 15.079°E 15.147°E 15.216°E 15.285°E 15.353°E

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Analysis of macroseismic fields using statistical data

33◦ Convegno GNGTS

1 Aim: ’automatic’ identification of attenuation patterns

2 Data depth functions

3 Depth functions for sets of convex hulls

4 Ex 1. - INGV www.haisentitoilterremoto.it database

5 Ex 2. - Mt Etna, DBMI11 database

6 Stochastic modelling of seismic attenuation

Set of the effectsncaused by an earthquake in termsoof macroseismic intensity

Location Lat Lon Is

DAGALA 37.700 15.143 8.0

PISANO 37.664 15.109 7.0 37.7 37.7

FELICETTO 37.665 15.152 7.0 3

BALATELLE TIMONE 37.631 15.151 7.0 37.6 37.6

PRAINO 37.730 15.127 7.0

CECCAZZO 37.651 15.140 6.5

To do this we need to identify a pattern for the intensity decay

Aims are to:

hyp(y ) = {(t, z) ∈ T × R : z ≤ y (t)} epi(y ) = {(t, z) ∈ T × R : z ≥ y (t)}

Def. 1 For a functional data set yn , the half-region depth of y is

dHR = min(Rhyp (y ; yn ), Repi (y ; yn ))

If Y = Y (ω, t) is a stochastic process with trajectories in C (T ), then

dMHR (y , yn ) = min {EL(y , yn ), HL(y , yn )}

τi,j = sup |yi (t) − yj (t)|

3 turning counterclockwise, denote each vertex by its

polar coordinates w.r.t. the origin=epicentre (angle

from the positive horizontal line, distance from the

4 represent these points on the two-dimensional plane

(angle, modulus) and join them by a straight line

piecewise linear curves in the same graph

6 assign a measure of centrality to each curve so that the

curve with the highest value illustrates the

representative pattern within the set of curves

exclude ‘ouliers’ by examining just the curves within a

band (about 30% of the max width)

Macroseismic surveys based on questionnaires compiled on line by volunteers

Distance from Epicenter

−100 −50 0 50 100 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Convex hull enclosing sites with

∆I≤1 ∆I≤2 ∆I≤3

Prototypes of isoseismal lines for ∆I ≤ 1, 2, 3, 4 → circular global pattern.

from 1865 to 2002

37˚36' 37˚36' 8 ≤ no. data points ≤ 106

Main faults on the eastern slope of Mt. Etna

- I0 , Is , ∆I are random variables

• fixed I0 , in each bin j Scheme of isotropic decay

• random variable pj ∼ Beta distribution •

model by making a plane transformation

37.521°N 37.575°N 37.629°N 37.684°N 37.738°N 37.792°N 37.847°N

14.941°E 15.01°E 15.079°E 15.147°E 15.216°E 15.285°E 15.353°E

37.521°N 37.575°N 37.629°N 37.684°N 37.738°N 37.792°N 37.847°N

37.521°N 37.575°N 37.629°N 37.684°N 37.738°N 37.792°N 37.847°N

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