Electoral projections for the 2021 federal election

August 29th, 2021

Projections électorales pour l'élection fédérale de 2021 www.tooclosetocall.ca
tooclosetocall.ca www.silatendancesemaintient.ca
% CPC LPC NDP Green Bloc PPC Ind.
Atlantic 31.7 40.5 20.0 3.4 0.0 3.6
Quebec 17.2 36.4 11.6 2.8 28.1 2.9
Ontario 34.7 35.8 20.7 3.7 0.0 4.7
Prairies 47.3 19.0 25.5 2.6 0.0 4.1 Probability of winning most seats
Alberta 55.8 16.7 19.2 2.1 0.0 4.6 (with majority below)
BC 37.0 27.0 25.6 6.8 0.0 3.2 Probabilités de gagner le plus de sièges
Canada 33.9 32.4 19.7 3.6 5.6 3.9 (et d'une majorité en-dessous)

Seats/Sièges CPC LPC NDP Green Bloc PPC

Atlantic 6 25 1 0 0 44.1% 54.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Quebec 10 42 1 0 25 0 7.6% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ontario 47 63 11 0 0
Prairies 19 4 5 0 0
Alberta 32 1 1 0 0
BC 21 10 10 1 0
Territories* 1 1 1 0 0
Probability of winning the riding
Canada 136 146 30 1 25 0 0 Probabilité de remporter la circonscription

Riding/Circonscription CPC LPC NDP Green Bloc PPC Ind. CPC LPC NDP Green Bloc PPC Ind.
Avalon 33% 44% 20% 0% 2% 9.7% 90.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bonavista--Burin--Trinity 40% 44% 15% 0% 2% 33.2% 66.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coast of Bays--Central--Notre Dame 37% 47% 16% 0% 2% 11.0% 89.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NFL

Labrador 33% 40% 27% 0% 2% 18.9% 79.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Long Range Mountains 30% 47% 23% 0% 2% 3.0% 96.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
St. John's East/St. John's-Est 23% 33% 44% 0% 3% 0.3% 7.6% 92.1% 0.0% 0.0%
St. John's South--Mount Pearl/St. John's-Sud--Mount
22% Pearl
49% 30% 0% 3% 0.1% 98.8% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Cardigan 33% 51% 11% 4% 3% 3.0% 97.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlottetown 25% 48% 17% 10% 3% 0.8% 99.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
PEI
PEI Egmont 39% 43% 11% 8% 2% 34.8% 65.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Malpeque 34% 40% 14% 12% 3% 24.3% 75.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cape Breton--Canso 39% 41% 20% 0% 5% 43.2% 56.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Nova/Nova-Centre 34% 48% 18% 0% 5% 5.6% 94.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cumberland--Colchester 40% 39% 17% 4% 4% 57.2% 42.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dartmouth--Cole Harbour 20% 47% 32% 1% 4% 0.0% 95.3% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Halifax 15% 43% 37% 5% 4% 0.0% 77.6% 22.4% 0.0% 0.0%
NS

Halifax West/Halifax-Ouest 25% 45% 26% 3% 3% 1.2% 97.6% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Kings--Hants 29% 45% 22% 4% 4% 3.3% 96.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Sackville--Preston--Chezzetcook 27% 41% 29% 3% 4% 3.8% 90.5% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0%
South Shore--St. Margarets 32% 44% 21% 3% 4% 9.7% 90.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Sydney--Victoria 35% 36% 28% 0% 3% 42.4% 50.3% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0%
West Nova/Nova-Ouest 43% 38% 15% 4% 2% 73.6% 26.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Acadie--Bathurst 24% 56% 19% 0% 2% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Beauséjour 23% 52% 13% 12% 5% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fredericton 39% 42% 12% 7% 5% 41.6% 58.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fundy Royal 53% 27% 15% 5% 5% 99.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Madawaska--Restigouche 32% 52% 11% 5% 2% 1.4% 98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NB

Miramichi--Grand Lake 42% 41% 14% 3% 6% 54.0% 46.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe 29% 47% 18% 7% 5% 2.6% 97.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Brunswick Southwest/Nouveau-Brunswick-Sud-Ouest
55% 27% 13% 4% 6% 99.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint John--Rothesay 40% 41% 18% 1% 6% 47.5% 52.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tobique--Mactaquac 56% 27% 13% 5% 5% 99.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou 17% 31% 13% 2% 34% 3% 0.2% 42.7% 0.0% 0.0% 57.0% 0.0%
Abitibi--Témiscamingue 15% 27% 10% 2% 43% 3% 0.0% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 91.3% 0.0%
Ahuntsic-Cartierville 9% 55% 13% 4% 16% 2% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alfred-Pellan 13% 51% 9% 2% 23% 2% 0.0% 99.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Argenteuil--La Petite-Nation 12% 41% 7% 3% 34% 3% 0.0% 75.1% 0.0% 0.0% 24.9% 0.0%
Avignon--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia 8% 37% 4% 0% 49% 2% 0.0% 15.1% 0.0% 0.0% 84.9% 0.0%
Beauce 40% 14% 3% 1% 12% 30% 92.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 7.9%
Beauport--Limoilou 27% 28% 11% 3% 28% 4% 22.8% 38.3% 0.0% 0.0% 38.9% 0.0%
Bécancour--Nicolet--Saurel 16% 20% 5% 2% 54% 2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 99.5% 0.0%
Bellechasse--Les Etchemins--Lévis 46% 21% 5% 1% 23% 4% 99.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0%
Beloeil--Chambly 9% 25% 16% 3% 45% 2% 0.0% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 94.9% 0.0%
 Berthier--Maskinongé 10% 16% 35% 0% 35% 2% 0.0% 0.4% 48.8% 0.0% 50.9% 0.0%
Thérèse-De Blainville 12% 38% 9% 3% 36% 2% 0.0% 61.4% 0.0% 0.0% 38.6% 0.0%
Pierre-Boucher--Les Patriotes--Verchères 11% 31% 8% 3% 45% 2% 0.0% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 88.5% 0.0%
Bourassa 8% 61% 10% 2% 16% 2% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Brome--Missisquoi 13% 41% 8% 4% 32% 2% 0.0% 81.3% 0.0% 0.0% 18.7% 0.0%
Brossard--Saint-Lambert 13% 56% 11% 4% 14% 2% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques
10% 26% 25% 0% 38% 2% 0.0% 13.1% 4.3% 0.0% 82.6% 0.0%
Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles 39% 23% 7% 2% 25% 4% 92.6% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 5.5% 0.0%
Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix
31% 24% 5% 1% 35% 4% 31.0% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 62.4% 0.0%
Châteauguay--Lacolle 13% 42% 9% 2% 31% 2% 0.0% 85.9% 0.0% 0.0% 14.1% 0.0%
Chicoutimi--Le Fjord 38% 19% 6% 2% 33% 2% 71.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 27.6% 0.0%
Compton--Stanstead 15% 40% 9% 4% 30% 3% 0.0% 84.3% 0.0% 0.0% 15.7% 0.0%
Dorval--Lachine--LaSalle 12% 56% 14% 4% 11% 2% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drummond 17% 20% 16% 2% 43% 3% 0.3% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 97.1% 0.0%
Gaspésie--Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine 8% 46% 4% 1% 39% 2% 0.0% 76.3% 0.0% 0.0% 23.7% 0.0%
Gatineau 11% 55% 11% 2% 19% 3% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hochelaga 6% 36% 24% 3% 28% 2% 0.0% 79.8% 2.3% 0.0% 17.9% 0.0%
Honoré-Mercier 11% 62% 10% 1% 14% 2% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hull--Aylmer 9% 56% 14% 5% 13% 3% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Joliette 11% 26% 6% 3% 53% 2% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 98.0% 0.0%
Jonquière 22% 18% 24% 0% 33% 3% 5.7% 3.4% 10.4% 0.0% 80.5% 0.0%
La Pointe-de-l'Île 9% 33% 13% 2% 41% 2% 0.0% 25.8% 0.0% 0.0% 74.2% 0.0%
La Prairie 11% 39% 9% 3% 36% 2% 0.0% 64.2% 0.0% 0.0% 35.8% 0.0%
Lac-Saint-Jean 24% 27% 5% 0% 42% 2% 1.7% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 88.4% 0.0%
Lac-Saint-Louis 17% 61% 14% 5% 0% 3% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
LaSalle--Émard--Verdun 9% 46% 19% 5% 18% 2% 0.0% 99.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Laurentides--Labelle 10% 36% 8% 3% 41% 2% 0.0% 33.6% 0.0% 0.0% 66.4% 0.0%
Laurier--Sainte-Marie 5% 43% 28% 4% 17% 2% 0.0% 96.9% 2.8% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
QC

Laval--Les Îles 18% 51% 11% 3% 15% 3% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Longueuil--Charles-LeMoyne 9% 42% 12% 4% 30% 2% 0.0% 87.2% 0.0% 0.0% 12.8% 0.0%
Lévis--Lotbinière 46% 19% 6% 1% 23% 5% 99.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0%
Longueuil--Saint-Hubert 8% 37% 10% 10% 33% 2% 0.0% 66.7% 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% 0.0%
Louis-Hébert 18% 42% 8% 2% 26% 3% 0.1% 94.1% 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 0.0%
Louis-Saint-Laurent 46% 22% 6% 2% 20% 4% 99.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Manicouagan 20% 22% 3% 2% 51% 2% 0.2% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 98.8% 0.0%
Mégantic--L'Érable 50% 18% 4% 1% 24% 3% 99.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Mirabel 12% 27% 9% 4% 45% 3% 0.0% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 93.3% 0.0%
Montarville 10% 38% 10% 3% 37% 2% 0.0% 55.1% 0.0% 0.0% 44.9% 0.0%
Montcalm 11% 23% 8% 3% 52% 2% 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 98.9% 0.0%
Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup
42% 19% 7% 0% 30% 2% 91.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 0.0%
Mount Royal/Mont-Royal 26% 58% 10% 4% 0% 2% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Westmount 13% 58% 18% 9% 0% 2% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Outremont 8% 48% 23% 10% 8% 2% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Papineau 6% 54% 22% 6% 10% 2% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pierrefonds--Dollard 20% 60% 12% 4% 2% 3% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pontiac 22% 46% 12% 2% 13% 4% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier 44% 22% 5% 2% 22% 5% 99.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0%
Québec 15% 35% 12% 4% 31% 3% 0.0% 66.5% 0.0% 0.0% 33.4% 0.0%
Repentigny 10% 30% 8% 2% 47% 2% 0.0% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 91.6% 0.0%
Richmond--Arthabaska 46% 17% 5% 4% 26% 3% 98.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 0.0%
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles 10% 39% 10% 4% 34% 3% 0.0% 67.0% 0.0% 0.0% 33.0% 0.0%
Rivière-du-Nord 14% 25% 9% 4% 46% 2% 0.0% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 95.6% 0.0%
Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie 4% 26% 45% 4% 18% 2% 0.0% 0.7% 99.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin 12% 47% 10% 2% 26% 2% 0.0% 97.9% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 0.0%
Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot 14% 24% 18% 2% 39% 2% 0.1% 8.2% 0.2% 0.0% 91.5% 0.0%
Saint-Jean 13% 33% 9% 4% 39% 2% 0.0% 32.4% 0.0% 0.0% 67.6% 0.0%
Saint-Laurent 19% 61% 12% 4% 1% 2% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint-Léonard--Saint-Michel 14% 69% 9% 1% 4% 3% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint-Maurice--Champlain 17% 42% 5% 1% 32% 3% 0.0% 84.3% 0.0% 0.0% 15.7% 0.0%
Salaberry--Suroît 12% 33% 10% 2% 42% 2% 0.0% 22.8% 0.0% 0.0% 77.2% 0.0%
Shefford 13% 40% 7% 4% 37% 0% 0.0% 65.2% 0.0% 0.0% 34.8% 0.0%
Sherbrooke 12% 31% 30% 3% 23% 1% 0.0% 57.2% 28.1% 0.0% 14.8% 0.0%
Vaudreuil--Soulanges 14% 49% 13% 4% 17% 2% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Terrebonne 11% 31% 9% 3% 44% 2% 0.0% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% 85.5% 0.0%
Trois-Rivières 26% 27% 17% 1% 26% 2% 20.0% 45.8% 0.4% 0.0% 33.9% 0.0%
Ville-Marie--Le Sud-Ouest--Île-des-Soeurs 11% 54% 19% 6% 7% 2% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Vimy 13% 50% 11% 3% 21% 2% 0.0% 99.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Ajax 28% 49% 16% 2% 5% 0.8% 99.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing 28% 20% 45% 2% 4% 1.9% 0.0% 98.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill 46% 34% 12% 2% 5% 89.1% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Barrie--Innisfil 46% 25% 19% 6% 4% 99.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte 41% 27% 18% 10% 4% 95.4% 4.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bay of Quinte/Baie de Quinte 39% 35% 19% 3% 4% 64.9% 35.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Beaches--East York 16% 50% 24% 4% 6% 0.1% 99.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Brampton Centre/Brampton-Centre 28% 39% 25% 3% 6% 7.7% 89.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Brampton East/Brampton-Est 24% 39% 31% 1% 5% 2.1% 80.2% 17.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Brampton North/Brampton-Nord 28% 43% 22% 1% 5% 4.1% 95.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Brampton South/Brampton-Sud 29% 41% 22% 2% 5% 7.6% 91.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Brampton West/Brampton-Ouest 25% 45% 24% 1% 5% 0.9% 98.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Brantford--Brant 38% 29% 25% 3% 4% 81.8% 14.7% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound 48% 26% 15% 6% 5% 99.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Burlington 35% 40% 15% 5% 5% 22.5% 77.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cambridge 32% 36% 23% 5% 5% 31.0% 67.6% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Chatham-Kent--Leamington 49% 27% 19% 1% 4% 99.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Davenport 11% 37% 44% 2% 5% 0.0% 23.5% 76.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Don Valley East/Don Valley-Est 26% 53% 14% 2% 5% 0.5% 99.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Don Valley North/Don Valley-Nord 37% 43% 13% 2% 5% 31.0% 69.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Don Valley West/Don Valley-Ouest 33% 49% 11% 2% 5% 6.4% 93.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dufferin--Caledon 44% 29% 15% 8% 4% 96.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Durham 46% 23% 22% 4% 6% 99.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Eglinton--Lawrence 35% 46% 12% 2% 5% 13.8% 86.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elgin--Middlesex--London 53% 19% 21% 3% 4% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Essex 44% 15% 38% 0% 4% 74.8% 0.0% 25.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Etobicoke Centre/Etobicoke-Centre 36% 45% 11% 2% 5% 21.3% 78.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Etobicoke--Lakeshore 31% 45% 15% 4% 5% 8.2% 91.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Etobicoke North/Etobicoke-Nord 24% 55% 14% 0% 7% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Flamborough--Glanbrook 37% 34% 22% 3% 4% 59.5% 39.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Glengarry--Prescott--Russell 38% 44% 13% 0% 4% 26.1% 73.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Guelph 21% 36% 16% 23% 4% 2.7% 95.6% 0.3% 1.4% 0.0%
Haldimand--Norfolk 50% 21% 19% 5% 4% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes--Brock 51% 22% 18% 5% 4% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hamilton Centre/Hamilton-Centre 16% 24% 51% 5% 4% 0.0% 0.2% 99.8% 0.0% 0.0%
 Hamilton East--Stoney Creek/Hamilton-Est--Stoney
29% Creek30% 34% 3% 4% 18.4% 24.2% 57.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Hamilton Mountain 28% 27% 38% 3% 4% 11.5% 8.6% 79.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas/Hamilton-Ouest--Ancaster--Dundas
29% 42% 21% 4% 4% 6.0% 93.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Hastings--Lennox and Addington 43% 33% 16% 3% 5% 88.4% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Huron--Bruce 51% 29% 15% 1% 4% 99.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kanata--Carleton 39% 38% 15% 3% 4% 51.0% 49.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kenora 36% 26% 32% 3% 3% 65.0% 8.0% 27.0% 0.0% 0.0%
King--Vaughan 44% 37% 12% 2% 5% 78.1% 21.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kingston and the Islands/Kingston et les Îles 21% 41% 27% 6% 5% 1.2% 95.1% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Kitchener Centre/Kitchener-Centre 25% 32% 15% 23% 4% 18.6% 77.2% 0.2% 3.9% 0.0%
Kitchener--Conestoga 41% 35% 13% 7% 4% 74.3% 25.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kitchener South--Hespeler/Kitchener-Sud--Hespeler
36% 36% 17% 8% 4% 47.1% 52.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Lambton--Kent--Middlesex 51% 21% 19% 3% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lanark--Frontenac--Kingston 50% 20% 17% 8% 4% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Leeds--Grenville--Thousand Islands and Rideau 51%Lakes/Leeds--Grenville--Thousand
22% 17% 6% Islands et4%
Rideau Lakes 99.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
London--Fanshawe 26% 23% 45% 2% 4% 1.1% 0.3% 98.6% 0.0% 0.0%
London North Centre/London-Centre-Nord 25% 38% 27% 5% 5% 5.9% 86.4% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0%
London West/London-Ouest 30% 38% 25% 2% 4% 14.8% 82.1% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Markham--Stouffville 41% 39% 12% 3% 6% 54.8% 45.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Markham--Thornhill 35% 46% 13% 1% 5% 11.4% 88.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Markham--Unionville 49% 30% 12% 3% 6% 98.4% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Milton 38% 43% 11% 3% 5% 23.2% 76.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississauga Centre/Mississauga-Centre 30% 47% 15% 1% 6% 2.7% 97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississauga East--Cooksville/Mississauga-Est--Cooksville
34% 45% 14% 1% 5% 12.3% 87.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississauga--Erin Mills 34% 45% 14% 2% 6% 10.2% 89.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ont.

Mississauga--Lakeshore 38% 40% 13% 3% 5% 40.3% 59.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Mississauga--Malton 29% 45% 20% 1% 5% 3.7% 96.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississauga--Streetsville 34% 42% 15% 3% 5% 17.7% 82.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nepean 36% 41% 16% 3% 4% 27.0% 73.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Newmarket--Aurora 40% 35% 16% 4% 5% 65.5% 34.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara Centre/Niagara-Centre 33% 31% 30% 2% 4% 44.1% 33.4% 22.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara Falls 40% 31% 23% 2% 4% 85.4% 13.7% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara West/Niagara-Ouest 49% 28% 15% 4% 4% 98.8% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nickel Belt 23% 35% 35% 2% 4% 2.3% 48.9% 48.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Nipissing--Timiskaming 29% 36% 24% 3% 8% 18.6% 78.4% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Northumberland--Peterborough South/Northumberland--Peterborough-Sud
42% 32% 17% 5% 4% 87.3% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oakville 40% 38% 12% 4% 6% 58.4% 41.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oakville North--Burlington/Oakville-Nord--Burlington
39% 40% 13% 2% 5% 45.8% 54.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oshawa 40% 18% 33% 3% 6% 75.1% 0.2% 24.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Ottawa Centre/Ottawa-Centre 17% 39% 36% 4% 4% 0.1% 62.9% 37.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Orléans 31% 50% 15% 2% 4% 2.0% 98.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ottawa South/Ottawa-Sud 26% 48% 20% 3% 4% 1.0% 99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ottawa--Vanier 19% 47% 25% 4% 4% 0.1% 99.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Ottawa West--Nepean/Ottawa-Ouest--Nepean 29% 41% 22% 3% 4% 8.2% 91.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Oxford 51% 15% 24% 5% 5% 99.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Parkdale--High Park 16% 40% 35% 4% 5% 0.1% 77.6% 22.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Parry Sound--Muskoka 44% 26% 15% 13% 2% 98.3% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Perth--Wellington 49% 24% 18% 6% 4% 99.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Peterborough--Kawartha 37% 35% 20% 4% 4% 58.1% 41.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Pickering--Uxbridge 31% 43% 17% 4% 6% 7.7% 92.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Renfrew--Nipissing--Pembroke 58% 16% 19% 3% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond Hill 44% 35% 14% 2% 5% 82.7% 17.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Carleton 49% 34% 12% 2% 4% 95.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Catharines 33% 36% 24% 3% 4% 35.5% 62.5% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Toronto--St. Paul's 24% 47% 19% 4% 6% 1.1% 98.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sarnia--Lambton 52% 16% 25% 1% 5% 99.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sault Ste. Marie 34% 35% 26% 1% 4% 42.5% 52.9% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Scarborough--Agincourt 38% 44% 12% 0% 5% 32.9% 67.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Scarborough Centre/Scarborough-Centre 25% 51% 16% 1% 7% 0.6% 99.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Scarborough--Guildwood 24% 55% 15% 1% 6% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Scarborough North/Scarborough-Nord 31% 47% 17% 0% 5% 6.1% 93.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Scarborough--Rouge Park 22% 56% 15% 2% 5% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Scarborough Southwest/Scarborough-Sud-Ouest22% 51% 19% 3% 5% 0.3% 99.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Simcoe--Grey 46% 28% 14% 8% 4% 98.1% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Simcoe North/Simcoe-Nord 41% 29% 20% 7% 4% 90.8% 9.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Spadina--Fort York 23% 42% 26% 3% 6% 1.7% 96.4% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Stormont--Dundas--South Glengarry 56% 22% 17% 1% 4% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sudbury 23% 37% 33% 4% 4% 2.1% 69.5% 28.4% 0.0% 0.0%
 Thornhill 51% 29% 14% 1% 5% 99.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Thunder Bay--Rainy River 31% 31% 32% 1% 4% 31.2% 29.5% 39.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Thunder Bay--Superior North/Thunder Bay--Supérieur-Nord
28% 39% 24% 5% 4% 9.3% 88.2% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Timmins--James Bay/Timmins--Baie James 29% 22% 44% 0% 5% 3.2% 0.2% 96.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Toronto Centre/Toronto-Centre 13% 45% 24% 13% 5% 0.0% 99.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Toronto--Danforth 13% 41% 36% 4% 5% 0.0% 74.0% 26.0% 0.0% 0.0%
University--Rosedale 19% 44% 26% 6% 5% 0.3% 98.5% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Vaughan--Woodbridge 37% 43% 13% 1% 6% 22.6% 77.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Waterloo 26% 44% 19% 7% 4% 2.6% 97.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wellington--Halton Hills 50% 24% 12% 10% 4% 99.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Whitby 37% 35% 19% 4% 5% 53.3% 46.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Willowdale 38% 42% 13% 1% 6% 40.7% 59.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Windsor--Tecumseh 30% 29% 36% 1% 5% 17.2% 15.7% 67.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Windsor West/Windsor-Ouest 20% 32% 44% 0% 4% 0.2% 8.1% 91.8% 0.0% 0.0%
York Centre/York-Centre 40% 42% 12% 1% 5% 46.9% 53.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
York--Simcoe 50% 23% 18% 6% 4% 99.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
York South--Weston/York-Sud--Weston 20% 52% 21% 2% 5% 0.0% 99.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Humber River--Black Creek 17% 55% 23% 0% 5% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Brandon--Souris 60% 12% 19% 5% 4% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia--Headingley
37% 35% 19% 2% 7% 50.5% 48.6% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Churchill--Keewatinook Aski 15% 24% 56% 2% 3% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dauphin--Swan River--Neepawa 60% 14% 19% 3% 4% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elmwood--Transcona 33% 12% 51% 1% 3% 1.4% 0.0% 98.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Kildonan--St. Paul 41% 28% 26% 2% 3% 87.7% 5.4% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Portage--Lisgar 67% 11% 14% 3% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Man.

Provencher 62% 13% 18% 4% 4% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Saint Boniface--Saint Vital/Saint-Boniface--Saint-Vital
28% 43% 22% 3% 4% 3.1% 96.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Selkirk--Interlake--Eastman 58% 12% 23% 4% 3% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Winnipeg Centre/Winnipeg-Centre 13% 33% 47% 3% 4% 0.0% 3.0% 97.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Winnipeg North/Winnipeg-Nord 16% 48% 32% 0% 3% 0.0% 96.9% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Winnipeg South/Winnipeg-Sud 34% 41% 19% 2% 3% 17.6% 82.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Winnipeg South Centre/Winnipeg-Centre-Sud 25% 44% 23% 4% 4% 0.8% 98.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Battlefords--Lloydminster 70% 7% 17% 2% 4% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cypress Hills--Grasslands 73% 4% 15% 2% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
 Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River/Desnethé--Missinippi--Rivière
33% 28% 35% Churchill
2% 3% 50.1% 8.8% 41.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Carlton Trail--Eagle Creek/Sentier Carlton--Eagle
71% Creek5% 18% 2% 4% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Moose Jaw--Lake Centre--Lanigan 58% 8% 25% 3% 6% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Prince Albert 59% 11% 23% 2% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Regina--Lewvan 44% 13% 35% 4% 4% 89.7% 0.0% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Sask.

Regina--Qu'Appelle 55% 12% 26% 3% 4% 99.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Regina--Wascana 41% 34% 19% 3% 4% 82.5% 17.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Saskatoon--Grasswood 45% 16% 32% 2% 4% 95.5% 0.0% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Saskatoon--University 44% 12% 36% 3% 4% 85.2% 0.0% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Saskatoon West/Saskatoon-Ouest 39% 7% 47% 2% 5% 26.2% 0.0% 73.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Souris--Moose Mountain 77% 4% 13% 1% 4% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Yorkton--Melville 68% 7% 18% 3% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Banff--Airdrie 44% 14% 18% 3% 6% 15% 99.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Battle River--Crowfoot 73% 8% 13% 2% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bow River 72% 10% 13% 1% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Calgary Centre/Calgary-Centre 44% 29% 18% 4% 4% 96.8% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Calgary Confederation 43% 25% 20% 8% 5% 98.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Calgary Forest Lawn 47% 26% 19% 3% 5% 99.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Calgary Heritage 59% 17% 17% 3% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Calgary Midnapore 62% 14% 17% 2% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Calgary Nose Hill 57% 19% 18% 2% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Calgary Rocky Ridge 56% 21% 16% 2% 4% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Calgary Shepard 63% 14% 16% 2% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Calgary Signal Hill 58% 18% 16% 3% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Calgary Skyview 39% 32% 24% 1% 4% 80.4% 18.4% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Edmonton Centre/Edmonton-Centre 29% 36% 29% 2% 4% 14.7% 72.1% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Edmonton Griesbach 39% 21% 34% 2% 5% 72.6% 0.3% 27.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Edmonton Manning 43% 25% 26% 2% 4% 97.4% 1.1% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Edmonton Mill Woods 37% 37% 20% 1% 4% 50.5% 49.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Alb.

Edmonton Riverbend 45% 26% 23% 2% 4% 98.6% 0.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Edmonton Strathcona 24% 14% 56% 1% 4% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Edmonton West/Edmonton-Ouest 48% 23% 23% 2% 4% 99.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Edmonton--Wetaskiwin 60% 15% 19% 1% 4% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Foothills 70% 9% 13% 3% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
 Fort McMurray--Cold Lake 69% 12% 13% 1% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grande Prairie--Mackenzie 72% 8% 15% 1% 4% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lakeland 72% 8% 14% 1% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lethbridge 53% 17% 23% 2% 4% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Medicine Hat--Cardston--Warner 67% 10% 17% 2% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Peace River--Westlock 68% 10% 15% 2% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Red Deer--Mountain View 68% 9% 15% 2% 6% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Red Deer--Lacombe 67% 8% 17% 2% 6% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Albert--Edmonton 49% 23% 23% 2% 4% 99.8% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Sherwood Park--Fort Saskatchewan 62% 13% 19% 1% 4% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sturgeon River--Parkland 66% 10% 18% 2% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Yellowhead 70% 9% 15% 2% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abbotsford 54% 23% 19% 2% 2% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Burnaby North--Seymour/Burnaby-Nord--Seymour
33% 28% 31% 3% 5% 2.6% 62.3% 35.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Burnaby South/Burnaby-Sud 34% 24% 38% 0% 4% 28.3% 1.0% 70.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Cariboo--Prince George 56% 22% 17% 3% 2% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Okanagan--Similkameen--Nicola 51% 26% 18% 2% 2% 99.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chilliwack--Hope 53% 22% 18% 4% 3% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cloverdale--Langley City 41% 35% 19% 1% 4% 72.3% 27.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Coquitlam--Port Coquitlam 37% 35% 23% 1% 4% 57.9% 40.7% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Courtenay--Alberni 36% 13% 43% 8% 0% 22.1% 0.0% 77.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Cowichan--Malahat--Langford 29% 17% 38% 15% 2% 16.1% 0.2% 83.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Delta 36% 42% 17% 1% 4% 24.6% 75.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fleetwood--Port Kells 36% 38% 22% 0% 5% 42.4% 57.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Kamloops--Thompson--Cariboo 44% 31% 17% 6% 2% 93.9% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kelowna--Lake Country 49% 34% 13% 2% 2% 96.3% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kootenay--Columbia 49% 10% 36% 3% 2% 91.9% 0.0% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Langley--Aldergrove 50% 26% 17% 2% 4% 99.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mission--Matsqui--Fraser Canyon 45% 28% 19% 5% 2% 97.9% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Nanaimo--Ladysmith 29% 15% 25% 29% 2% 44.2% 0.3% 16.5% 39.0% 0.0%
New Westminster--Burnaby 25% 23% 45% 3% 4% 0.8% 0.3% 98.9% 0.0% 0.0%
North Okanagan--Shuswap 52% 24% 17% 5% 3% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Vancouver 30% 42% 17% 7% 4% 6.5% 93.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
BC

Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge 40% 30% 24% 2% 4% 85.7% 12.3% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0%
BC Port Moody--Coquitlam 34% 29% 31% 2% 4% 54.2% 16.7% 29.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Prince George--Peace River--Northern Rockies
73% 13% 10% 1% 3% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond Centre/Richmond-Centre 51% 29% 15% 1% 4% 99.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Esquimalt--Saanich--Sooke 22% 19% 36% 21% 2% 5.0% 1.2% 92.6% 1.2% 0.0%
Saanich--Gulf Islands 23% 17% 14% 43% 2% 2.9% 0.4% 0.2% 96.5% 0.0%
Skeena--Bulkley Valley 38% 14% 44% 2% 2% 25.0% 0.0% 75.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Okanagan--West Kootenay/Okanagan-Sud--Kootenay-Ouest
38% 19% 38% 3% 3% 51.8% 0.1% 48.1% 0.0% 0.0%
South Surrey--White Rock/Surrey-Sud--White45%
Rock 37% 12% 2% 4% 79.3% 20.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Steveston--Richmond East/Steveston--Richmond-Est
44% 35% 16% 2% 3% 85.7% 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Surrey Centre/Surrey-Centre 28% 38% 29% 1% 4% 9.1% 83.0% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Surrey--Newton 23% 44% 29% 0% 4% 0.4% 97.4% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Vancouver Centre/Vancouver-Centre 23% 41% 25% 7% 4% 1.4% 96.4% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Vancouver East/Vancouver-Est 15% 18% 54% 9% 4% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Vancouver Granville 31% 33% 30% 2% 4% 30.9% 42.4% 26.7% 0.0% 0.0%
North Island--Powell River 36% 14% 39% 8% 2% 33.6% 0.0% 66.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Vancouver Kingsway 22% 24% 50% 1% 4% 0.1% 0.2% 99.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Vancouver Quadra 31% 43% 16% 7% 4% 8.4% 91.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Vancouver South/Vancouver-Sud 35% 41% 19% 0% 4% 24.1% 75.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Victoria 16% 23% 35% 24% 2% 0.6% 3.7% 91.2% 4.5% 0.0%
West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky30%
Country35% 14% 17% 4% 25.6% 74.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Yukon 33% 26% 31% 5% 6% 44.4% 50.6% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Terr.

Northwest Territories/Territoires du Nord-Ouest

24% 37% 29% 5% 6% 2.2% 95.8% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nunavut 26% 30% 40% 0% 4% 0.4% 2.2% 97.4% 0.0% 0.0%

*due to a general lack of polls, the projections for the three territories use
the federal vote intentions.