WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, VOL. 34, NO.

7, PAGES 1851-1857, JULY 1998

Recessionflow analysis for aquifer parameter determination

JozsefSzilagyi
Conservationand SurveyDivision, University of Nebraska,Lincoln

Marc B. Parlange
Departmentof Geographyand EnvironmentalEngineering,JohnsHopkinsUniversity,Baltimore,Maryland

John D. Albertson
Departmentof EnvironmentalSciences,Universityof Virginia, Charlottesville

Abstract. The recessionflow analysisof Brutsaertand Nieber [1977] extendedby Trochet

al. [1993]to estimateaquiferparameters(saturatedhydraulicconductivityand mean
aquiferdepth) is examinedby meansof a numericalmodel.It is found to be reliablefor
the estimationof the catchment-scale
saturatedhydraulicconductivityand mean aquifer
depth.Increasingthe complexityof the syntheticwatershedhad no impacton the accuracy
of the estimatedparameters.

1. Introduction solutionbecomesvalid,reflectingthe effectof the no-flowbound-

ary on the groundwaterdrainage[seePolubarinova-Kochina,
Brutsaertand Nieber [1977] presenteda techniquefor the 1962,p. 515-517]. The outflowrate for the long-timesolution
estimationof the aquifer-scalesaturatedhydraulicconductivity can be expressed,aswas first shownby Boussinesq [1903] and
k whichwasextendedby Trochet al. [1993]alsoto estimatethe later by Polubarinova-Kochina [1962,p. 517]
mean aquiferdepthD. The methodutilizesstreamflowreces-
0.862kD 2
sionhydrographs and somebasicgeomorphological properties
of the watershed(i.e., the total lengthof the streamsand the
B 1 + 1.115 t'
catchmeritarea). The analysisis basedon analyticalsolutions
of the one-dimensionalBoussinesqequation describingthe
whereB is the width of the aquiferandt' is time with an origin
transientbehaviorof an unconfinedgroundwaterbody under
outsideof the short-timesolutionrange.The two equationsfor
Dupuit'sassumption (i.e., the hydraulicheadis independentof the short-and long-timeoutflowrate containthe four param-
depth).A detaileddescriptionof the techniquecanbe foundin eters rp,k, D, and B. Therefore, with observationsof stream-
the above-mentioned references.Belowwe briefly outline the
flow versustime and a priori estimatesof any two of these
stepsinvolved.
parametersthe equationscanbe invertedto provideestimates
The Boussinesqequation, when the effect of capillarity of the remainingtwo parameters.For example,if the valuesof
abovethe water table is neglectedand the Dupuit approxima- rpand B were known, k and D could be estimatedwith use of
tion is invoked,describesthe elevationof the transientground-
measureddischargesat the outlet of the catchment.Equally,
water tableh(x, t) abovea horizontalimpermeablelayer one couldchooseto prescribek on the basisof knowledgeof
the aquifermaterialinsteadof rp,but sincethe value of k may
OhkO(Oh)
-- =
Ot rpOx •-• h (1)
rangeover some11 ordersof magnitudewhile the rangefor rp
is onlyone order of magnitude[Domenicoand Schwartz,1998,
wherek is the (constant)saturatedhydraulicconductivity of pp. 15 and 39] it is more usefulto prescribe½ [Anderson and
the unconfinedaquifer,• is the (constant)drainableporosity, Woessner, 1992,p. 69]. Employingthe definitionof the drain-
t is time, and x is horizontal distance.See Figure 1 for a agedensity [Horton, 1945]Ra (=LA -•, whereL isthetotal
schematiccrosssectionof this system.For a so-calledfully length of the contributingstreamsand A is the area of the
penetratingstream draining an initially saturatedaquifer of watershed)an effectivevalue of B can be obtainedas B =
finite widthB, there existsan analyticalshort-timesolutionto (2Ra)-• for naturalwatersheds. Thevalueof rpcanbe esti-
(1) [seePolubarinova_Kochina, 1962,p. 507]whenthe ground- mated from availabletableson the basisof knowledgeof the
water drainageis not yet influencedby the no-flowconditionat type of aquifer material.
the edgeof the aquifer.The resultingoutflowrate (per unit The lastobstaclebeforethe directapplicationof the outflow
length)to the channelis [Polubarinova-Kochina, 1962,p. 507] rate solutionsfor estimatingk and D is the determinationof
the time origin (i.e., the time when groundwaterdrawdown
q(t) = 0.332(krp)•/2D3/2t-•/2 (2) begins).However,thisis not generallyknown,soBrutsaert and
whereD is the aquiferdepthandt is time. When the recession Nieber [1977] suggestedthat one shouldanalyzethe slopeof
drawdownreachesthe entire breadthof the aquifer (i.e., at the hydrograph(dQ/dt) asa functionof the dischargeQ. For
timet3in Figure1,whereh(x, 0 < D, everywhere), the long-time both the short-and the long-timesolutionsfor the outflowrate
the slopeof the hydrographcan be expressedas
Copyright1998by the AmericanGeophysicalUnion.
Paper number98WR01009. dQ
0043-1397/98/98WR-01009509.00 dt = -aQb (4)
1851
1852 SZILAGYI ET AL.: TECHNICAL NOTE

x=0 Ground Surface x=B

'h z=D

/
117'
/ Free
Groundwater
Surface
h(x,t
ImpermeableLayer z=0
Stream z

Figure 1. Schematicdiagramof an unconfinedaquiferwith a

fullypenetratingstream.The shapeof the free groundwater
sur-
faceis shownthroughtime followingsaturationof the aquifer.

where Q(t) is the measureddischargeand a and b are con-

stants[Brutsaertand Nieber,1977].From the solutionsfor the
outflow rate and appropriateexpressions for R a and B the
constantsin (4) can be relatedback to the abovementioned
four parameters(qo,k, D, andB) as
4.532B 2
al= kqoD3A2
bl= 3 (5)
for the short-time solution, and
4.804k1/2L 3

a2-'- qoA3/2 b2= • (6)

for the long-timesolution[Brutsaert andNieber,1977;Trochet
al., 1993].Equation(4) plotted as log (-dQ/dt) versuslog X II X II X II X II X II
(Q) formsstraightlineswith slopesof 3 for the short-timeand
1.5 for the long-timesolutionswith corresponding intercepts
a• and a2, respectively.
When applyingbaseflowrecession techniquesin practicefor
estimatingaquifer parameters,it is very hard to check the
accuracyof the estimatedvaluessince,generally,they are not
known for heterogeneoussystemssuchas watersheds.More-
over, when estimatingthe catchment-scale hydraulicconduc-
tivity by the Brutsaert-Niebertechnique,the resultingvalues
are generally 1-2 magnitudeslarger than their laboratory-
derivedcounterparts[Trochet al., 1993].This is becausethe
catchment-scale estimateincorporatesthe effect of preferen-
tial flow, flow in macropores[Trochet al., 1993],and the pos-
siblehigh spatialautocorrelationof the conductivity valuesin
certain directions.By employinga numericalmodel for the
simulation of catchment behavior based on the numerical in-
tegrationof the two-dimensional Boussinesq
equationwe are
in a positionto control the parameterscharacteristicof the
watershed.Consequently,the baseflowrecessionestimatesof
the catchment-scaleparameterscanreadilybe evaluated.This
typeof comparison hasnot beenperformedfor the Brutsaert-
Nieber recessionflow technique,whichmotivatedthe present
work.
In this paper we investigatethe performanceof the Brut-
saert-Nieber [1977]recessionflow analysisfor aquifer-scale
pa-
rameter (k andD) estimationusinga numericalmodelwhen
the conditionsrequired for the technique(i.e., the Dupuit
approximationis applicablewherea fully incisedstreamdrains
an initiallysaturatedaquiferandwhereanyeffectof capillarity
on the groundwaterdrainageis negligible)are met. The focus
 SZILAGYI ET AL.: TECHNICAL NOTE 1853

lOO

9O

8O

7O

6O

0 50 Divide

40

3o

2o

10

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Columns

Figure2. The geometry

of the synthetic
catchment.
Celldimensions
are 10by 10 m.

of ourworkis to checkhowthe complexshapeof a watershed, shapedaquiferandfor the smallwatershed are displayedin

heterogeneity and a gentlysloping Table 1. The assigned
of hydraulicconductivity, saturatedhydraulicconductivity
values
impermeable layerinfluencethe estimatedparameters. are typicalof a sedimentarymaterialconsisting of poorly
sortedsand[see,e.g.,Domenico andSchwartz,1998,p. 39].
In the heterogeneous
casea conductivity
valuewasassigned
2. Parameter Reliability Test to each cell in the model at random followinga lognormal
We test the robustness [1977]reces- distributionas generallyobservedin aquifers[see,e.g.,Law,
of the Brutsaert-Nieber
sionflowanalysis for estimating twocatchment-scaleparame- 1944;Nielsenetal., 1973].In caseswherethe conductivities
are
ters(k andD) by comparison of the estimated
parameters to intendedto displayhighspatialautocorrelation in certaindi-
prescribed valuesemployed in a numerical model.Theanalysis rectionsamongcells(i.e., macroscopic anisotropy)the same
is carriedout in twostages. Sincethe analyticalsolutionof the valuesof the conductivities were usedasin the simple(i.e., no
1-D Boussinesq equationis strictlyvalidonlyfor a rectangular preferred directionsfork) heterogeneous case,except thatthe
regionwe first modelthe transientunconfined groundwater conductivityvalues were rearranged among the cells.The in-
profilein a rectangularly shaped aquifer.Theeffectof spatial tent was to checkthe ability of the techniqueto quantify
variabilityof the saturated hydraulic conductivities,aswellas effectiveproperties in the presence of highspatialautocorre-
macroscopic anisotropy (i.e., highspatialautocorrelation in lationof hydraulicconductivities asoftenobserved in aquifers.
certaindirections), on the estimated catchment-scale parame- For example, during sedimentation processes,certain direc-
tersis checked.Similarly,we testthe effectof a gentlysloping tions(oftenalongside anancient riverbed)exhibithighspatial
impervious layer(whenthe Dupuitassumption canstill be autocorrelation of the physicalparametersbecauseof inter-
applied)ontheestimated watershed parameters. In thesecond connectedelongatedfluvial channel-fillbodies[e.g., Fogg,
stageof analysis the abovetestswererepeatedfor a small 19861.
synthetic(nonrectangular) catchmentwith an areaA of The simulationswere initiated with saturatedaquifers.For
576,200m2. bothaquifers thewatersurface wassetto zeroin thechannel
In both cases the behavior of the transient unconfined at all times,representing a fullypenetratingstream.Figure2
groundwater profilewassimulated bynumericallyintegrating
the showsthe geometryand the locationof the streamsin the
two-dimensional
Boussinesq
equation[see,e.g.,Verruijt,1982] syntheticwatershedcase.
The modelsimulatedthe first 100daysof drawdownfollow-
ingsaturation
of theunconfined
aquifers.
To makecertainthat
the numericalmodelworkedcorrectly,the analyticalsolutions
in a locallyisotropic medium(i.e.,k is a scalar)with either of (1) werecompared to thenumerical solutionof (7) for the
homogeneous (i.e., k is constantin space)or heterogeneousrectangular aquiferwithconstant k (seeFigure3) described in
regionalgridproperties usinga Crank-Nicholsonimplicitfinite Table 1 as case a (see Hornberger et al. [1970]for a similar
differencescheme. A 10by 10m meshwasappliedwith 10min comparison). The twosolutions overlap,exceptin the region
time increments.When a slopingimperviouslayer was em- corresponding to the transitionin the types(from short-to
ployedduringthe analysis, the average slopedid not exceed long-time)of the analytical solutions. Thisis because the an-
1:100 in orderto ensurethevalidityof the Dupuit assumption alyticallong-time solution is strictlyvalidonlyasymptotically,
[Verruijt,1982]. and also,it requiresan inversebetafunctiondescribing the
The prescribed modelparameters for the rectangularly initialwatertable[Polubarinova-Kochina, 1962,p. 516].The
1854 SZILAGYI ET AL.: TECHNICAL NOTE

(a) {b)

0.025 10 '7

0.020 --
o
Analytical
Numerical
Analyti.cal
/
•, •o-•
'T o.o15
E
E
0 O.OLO 0
'?, 10-9
0.005

0.000 ' ' ' ' ' ' 10© ,

0 20 40 60 80 100 0.001 0.01

Days Q(m3s-1)
Figure3. Comparisonof theanalytical
andnumerical solutions
of theBoussinesq
equation fortherectan-
gularaquifer
withconstant
saturated
hydraulicconductivity
andhorizontal
impervious
layer:(a)Groundwater
discharge
throughtimeand(b) timerateof change
in discharge
versusmagnitude
of discharge.

spatialdistributionof the saturatedhydraulicconductivitiesfor the rectangular aquiferandin Figure8 for the synthetic
(i.e.,heterogeneouscase)for the rectangular region(cases b catchment. Ascanbeseenin Figures 7 and8, twostraightlines
andc in Table1, respectively),
aswellasthehistogram of the withslopes 3 (short-time
solution) and1.5(long-time solution)
conductivityvalues,are presentedin Figure4. The sameare canbe fit to the graphsin eachcasewith a relativelywide
displayedin Figure5 for the smallsyntheticcatchment. The transition rangebetweenthem.Because of thepresence of this
elevationof the slopingimpervious layerfor thetwotypesof broadtransition zone,the fit of the straightlinesis somewhat
aquifer(casesd ande, respectively) is presented
in Figure6. arbitrarysincethe endof the short-time solutionrange,and
The numericalsimulation resultsfor 100 daysof drought similarly, the startof the long-time solution rangeis notwell
recession(log(-dQ/dt) versus log(Q)) aregivenin Figure7 defined.The fitted equationsare listedin Table 2. The esti-

(b)
10 lO

E9 -3.4 •
-3.4
8 -4.1

•5
E
"•4

2
1 ' ' ' '
10 20 30 40 10 20 30
Cells perpendicularto the stream Cells perpendicularto the stream

(c)

22
20
18
16
14
•12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 -0
The logarithms
of thesaturatedhydraulic
conductivities

Figure4. The spatialdistribution

of thesaturated
hydraulic
conductivities
(their10baselogarithms
are
shown)
(a) without
and(b)withpreferred
directions
in therectangular
aquifer
case,
aswellas(c) their
histogram.
Cell dimensions
are 10 by 10 m.
 SZILAGYI ET AL.: TECHNICAL NOTE 1855

(a) (b)
lOO lOO
90 9o
80 8o
70 7o
60 e 60
• 50 •o 5o
• 40 4O
3O 3O
2O 2O
10 10

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Columns Columns

(c)

22
20
18
16
14
•12
10
8
6
4
2
i ,
0
-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1

The logarithmsof the saturatedhydraulicconductivities

Figure 5. The spatialdistributionof the saturatedhydraulicconductivities

(their 10 baselogarithmsare
shown)(a) without and (b) with preferreddirectionsin the syntheticcatchmentcase,as well as (c) their
histogram.Cell dimensionsare 10 by 10 m.

matedhydraulicconductivity (k½st)andthe estimateddepthof
the aquifer(D½st)are obtainedusingthe fitted constants a•
and a2 (seeTable 1 for the resultingestimatedvalues).
Table 2 alsodisplaysthe accuracyof the estimatedparam-
eters.We note that in the mostideal case(casea: constantk,
horizontalimperviouslayer) the relative absoluteerror (i.e.,
the tr value)is --•25%for k and 10% for D. This mightbe due
in part to (1) uncertaintiesin the curvefittingprocedure,(2)
the nonlinearnature of the equationsinvolved,and (3) the
numericalmodalitself.However,the accuracyof the estimated
valuesdoesnot deterioratewith increasingcomplexityof the
aquifer.

(a) (b)

10 100

90

E 8
1 3 80
70

(t) 60

• 50
4O

3O

2O

2 10

10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 50 60. 70 80 90 100

Cells perpendicular
to the stream Columns
Figure 6. The elevation(metersabovestreamlevel)of the slopingimperviouslayerfor (a) the rectangular
aquiferand for (b) the syntheticwatershed.Cell dimensions
are 10 by 10 m.
1856 SZILAGYI ET AL.: TECHNICAL NOTE

10-7 Slope=3
v

3 v

v
2
v
v
nq•O
v

10-8 O©-o vv
De&o vv
-dQ/dt Oe&o _v v
o vvvv
(rn3s'2)3 Slope=1.5
2 ø (a)
o (b)
10-9
v (c)
o (d)
3
ß (e)
2

10-10 -- I I I , I , I f I • I ,I,Itlff,l,l,111,I I I , r , I a I , I , I*l,l•l,l

10-3 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 10'2 2 3 4 5

Q (m3s
-1)
Figure 7. The timerateof changein discharge versusmagnitude of discharge
obtainedfromthe numerical
solutionof the two-dimensional
Boussinesq equationfor the rectangular aquifer.The casesare a, constant
saturatedhydraulicconductivity
k; b, spatially
variablek withoutpreferreddirections;
c, spatially
variablek
withpreferred
directions;
d, constant
k withsloping
impervious
layer;ande, spatially
variable
k withsloping
imperviouslayer.

As one would expect,the estimatedeffectivevalue of the valuesin the heterogeneous cases(b, d, and e) with no pre-
catchment-scale saturatedhydraulicconductivity variesin ac- ferreddirectionsin the layeringare muchcloserto the geo-
cordanceto the spatialdistributionof k. Note that between metric mean [in accordancewith Domenicoand Schwartz,
casesb andc the onlydifferenceis in the spatialdistribution
of 1998,p. 43] of the lognormaldistributions,the estimatedhy-
the conductivityvaluessincethe distributionfunctionitself is draulicconductivity value in the rectangularaquifer case,
the samelognormaldistribution(seeTable 1) with the same wherethe layeringisparallelto the groundwaterflow,is closer
parametersin both cases.While the estimatedconductivity to the arithmeticmean[Maidment,1993,p. 6.11].A similar

10-6

10-7

-dQ/dt
(m3s'2)3
2

10-8

10-9

8 910-2 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910-1 2

Q (m3s
-1)
Figure 8. The timerateof changein discharge versusmagnitude of discharge
obtainedfromthe numerical
solutionof the two-dimensional
Boussinesq equationfor the syntheticcatchment.The casesare a, constant
saturatedhydraulicconductivity
k; b, spatially
variablek withoutpreferreddirections;
c, spatially
variablek
withpreferred
directions;
andd,spatially
variable
k withsloping
impervious
layer.
 SZILAGYI
ETAL.:TECHNICAL
NOTE 1857

Table2. TheBest-FitEquations
for theShort-(dQ/dt = -a 1Q3) andLong-Time
(dQ/dt = -a2Q 1'5)Numerical
Solutions
in Figures7 and8 Plusthe RelativeAbsoluteErrorsfor the SaturatedHydraulicConductivity
k andthe Mean
Aquifer Depth D Estimates
RectangularlyShapedAquifer SyntheticWatershed

Constant
k -1.17 x 10-2Q3, rrk = 9, -2.22 x 10-6Q•'5,
Spatiallyvariablek
Spatiallyvariablek with
preferred directions
Constantk with sloping
imperviouslayer
Spatiallyvariablek with
slopingimperviouslayer
-1.35 X 10-4Q3, rrk = 40, -1.27 x 10-6Q•'5,
andtr o = 4 and fro = 14
-8.33 x 10-3Q3, rrk -- 51, -2.48 x 10-6Q•'5, -1.07 X 10-4Q3, rrk -- 32, -1.13 x 10-6O•'5,
and fro = 0 and fro = 0
-4.07 x 10-3Q3, fro = 20, and-4.99 x 10-6Q•'5 -1.43 x 10-4Q3, rro = 5, and-1.05 x 10-6Q•'5
-1.42 x 10-2Q3, rre = 30,-2.30 x 10-6Q•'5, not investigated
and rro = 10
-1.01 x 10-2Q3, rr• = 58,-2.54 x 10-6Q•'5, -1.40 x 10-4Q3, rrk = 19,-1.23 x 10-6Q•'5,
and rro = 15 and rro = 8

Relativeabsolute
errorsarein percent;
rr• = kes
t __kmodlkmod,
-! ira = IDest- DID-x', thesubscript
moddesignates
themodus.

shift in the estimatedconductivityvalue cannotbe observedin References

the syntheticwatershedcasebecausethere the layeringis par- Anderson,
M.P.,andW.M.Woessner,
Applied
Groundwater
Modeling,
allel in someparts,while in othersit is perpendicularto the p. 381, Academic,San Diego, 1992.
groundwaterflow. Boussinesq,J., Sur un mode simpled'ecoulementdes nappesd'eau
d'infiltration a lit horizontal, avec rebord vertical tout autour
lorsqu'une
partiede cerebordestenleveedepuisla surfacejusqu'au
fond, C. R. Acad. Sci., 137, 5-11, 1903.
3. Summary Brutsaert,W., and J. L. Nieber, Regionalizeddroughtflow hydro-
Weexplored
theperfor,
mance
oftheBrutsaert-Nieber
[1977] graphs from a mature glaciated plateau, Water Resour.Res., 13,
recessionflow analysisfor estimatingthe catchment-scale
sat- 637-643, 1977.
Domenico,P. A., and F. W. Schwartz,Physicaland ChemicalHydro-
uratedhydraulicconductivity and the mean aquiferdepthby geology,2nd ed., pp. 506, JohnWiley, New York, 1998.
means ofnumericalsimulation. Theapplicationofa numerical Fogg,G. E., Groundwaterflow and sandbodyinterconnectedness in a
modelmadeit possibleto havecontroloverthe parametersto thick,multipleaquifersystem,WaterResour.Res.,22, 679-694, 1986.
be estimatedby the recessionflow techniqueand to compare Hornberger, G. M., J. Ebert, and I. Remson,Numerical solutionof the
the prescribedvalueswith their estimates.Sucha comparison Boussinesqequationfor aquifer-streaminteraction,WaterResour.
Res., 6, 601-608, 1970.
is generallynot possiblewhen the techniqueis appliedin the Horton, R. E., Erosiondevelopmenton streamsand their drainage
caseof realwatersheds becauseof the obviousheterogeneity in basins:Hydrophysicalapproachto quantitativemorphology,Geol.
the aquifer. Soc.Am. Bull., 56, 275-370, 1945.
The effectof complexgeometry,a gentlyslopingimpervious Law, J., A statisticalapproachto the interstitialheterogeneityof sand
layer, and spatiallyvariablesaturatedhydraulicconductivities reservoirs,Trans.Am. Inst. Min. Metall. Pet. Eng., 155, 202-222,
1944.
on the accuracyof the estimatedcatchment-scale parameters Maidment, D. R. (Ed), Handbookof Hydrology,McGraw-Hill, New
was investigated.It was found that the accuracyof the esti- York, 1993.
matedparameterswasnot affectedby the growingcomplexity Nielsen, D. R., J. W. Biggat, and K. T. Erh, Spatialvariabilityof
of the syntheticaquifer employedin the model. field-measuredsoil-waterproperties,Hilgarda,42, 215-259, 1973.
Polubarinova-Kochina, P. Y., Theoryof Groundwater Movement,pp.
On the basisof our numericalmodel experimentthe inves- 613, Princeton Univ. Press, Princeton, N.J., 1962.
tigatedrecession flow techniqueprovedto be reliableto esti- Troch, P. A., F. P. de Troch, and W. Brutsaert, Effective water table
mate the catchment-scale saturatedhydraulicconductivityk depth to describeinitial conditionsprior to stormrainfall in humid
and the mean aquifer depthD. If the conditionsrequiredfor regions,WaterResour.Res.,29, 427-434, 1993.
the applicabilityof the Boussinesq equationare met, the tech- Verruijt, A., Theoryof Groundwater Flow, pp. 144, MacMillan, India-
napolis,Indiana, 1982.
niqueis expectedto providereliableestimatesof k andD in
practicalapplications. J.D.Albertson,
Department
ofEnvironmental
Sciences,
University
of Virginia,Charlottesville,
VA 22903.
M. B. Parlange,Departmentof GeographyandEnvironmentalEn-
Acknowiedgments.
The authorsgratefuiiyacknowiedge
funding gineering,
JohnsHopkinsUniversity,
Baltimore,MD 21218-2686.
from the JohnsHopkinsEPA grant on climatechangeand human JozsefSzilagyi,Conservationand SurveyDivision, Universityof
health.This publicationwasmadepossibleby grant5 P42 ES04699 Nebraska,Lincoln,NE 68588-0517.
(e-mail:jszilagy@unlinfo.unl.edu.)
from the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences,NIH,
with fundingprovidedby EPA. The authorsare alsogratefulto the (ReceivedAugust21, 1997;revisedMarch 13, 1998;
reviewerswhosecommentsled to importantrevisions. acceptedMarch 24, 1998.)