Professional Documents
Culture Documents
80 1020
150 900
75 860
50 700
70 700
May-08
May-09
May-10
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Aug-10
Feb-11
Oct-10
Sep-08
Nov-08
Sep-09
Nov-09
Dec-10
Jan-08
Mar-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-08
May-10
Aug-08
Feb-09
Jul-09
Feb-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Oct-08
Nov-08
Apr-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Oct-10
Nov-10
Jan-08
Jan-09
Dec-09
Jan-11
Mar-08
Jun-08
Jun-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Source: Bloomberg, Canaccord Genuity Source: Bloomberg, Canaccord Genuity
Canaccord Genuity is the global capital markets group of Canaccord Financial Inc. (CF : TSX | CF. : AIM)
The recommendations and opinions expressed in this Investment Research accurately reflect the Investment Analyst’
Analyst’s personal, independent
and objective views about any and all the Designated Investments and Relevant Issuers
Issuers discussed herein. For important information, please
see the Important Disclosures section in the appendix of this document or visit Canaccord Genuity’
Genuity’s Online Disclosure Database
Database.
ase.
28 M a r ch 2011
Precious Metals Weekly | 2
28 March 2011
$1,500 2.00
$1,400 1.90
Spot Gold US$/Oz
Sr./Int. P/NAV Multiple
$1,300 1.80
$1,200 1.70
P/NAV Avg. + 1 STDEV
$1,100 1.60
$800 1.30
P/NAV Avg. - 1 STDEV
$700 1.20
$600 1.10
$500 1.00
$400 0.90
$300 0.80
Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jun-05 Nov-05 May-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Aug-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Dec-10
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
The following charts (Figure 5 – gold, Figure 6 – silver) summarize the results of
regression analysis between share prices and the underlying commodity spot price
based on two-year trailing data. As highlighted in Figure 5, the four most undervalued
gold stocks based on potential return to the best-fit line are: Golden Star Resources (GSS
: TSX | GSC : AMEX | HOLD), Aura Minerals (ORA : TSX | SPECULATIVE BUY), Randgold
Resources (GOLD : NASDAQ | RRS : LSE | BUY), Northgate Minerals (NGX : AMEX | NXG
: TSX | BUY), and Eldorado Gold (EGO : NYSE | ELD : TSX | HOLD), and graphs showing
the best-fit lines for each stock are provided in Appendix 1.
Figure 5: Gold producers ranked by potential return to the best-fit line (share price vs. spot gold)
I mp l i e d
La te st Po te nti a l
Ti ck e r Co m p a n y Na me Sp o t Go l d Sl o p e / B e ta I nte r ce p t R2 B e st F i t
Cl o se r e tu r n
Pr i ce
GSS-A Golden Star Resources, Ltd. $2.97 $1,430 0.005 -2.240 0.624 $4.87 64%
ORA-T Aura Minerals Inc. $3.26 $1,430 0.003 -0.202 0.435 $4.36 34%
GOLD-Q Randgold Resources Ltd. $76.10 $1,430 0.064 3.945 0.611 $95.88 26%
NXG-A Northgate Minerals Corp. $2.68 $1,430 0.002 0.517 0.437 $3.27 22%
EGO-N Eldorado Gold Corp. $16.27 $1,430 0.019 -8.321 0.835 $19.39 19%
NEM-N Newmont Mining Corp. $53.96 $1,430 0.040 5.907 0.777 $62.46 16%
AGI-T Alamos Gold Inc. $16.35 $1,430 0.019 -8.806 0.889 $18.87 15%
CG-T Centerra Gold Inc. $17.16 $1,430 0.027 -18.553 0.914 $19.42 13%
AEM-N Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. $67.69 $1,430 0.040 15.790 0.605 $73.48 9%
KGC-N Kinross Gold Corporation $16.07 $1,430 -0.003 21.256 0.062 $17.35 8%
OSK-T Osisko Mining Corporation $14.12 $1,430 0.018 -10.590 0.889 $15.07 7%
KGN-T Keegan Resources Inc. $8.61 $1,430 0.011 -6.796 0.864 $8.90 3%
ABX-N Barrick Gold Corporation $51.51 $1,430 0.037 -1.483 0.935 $51.74 0%
DGC-T Detour Gold Corporation $32.61 $1,430 0.045 -31.133 0.903 $32.55 0%
AUY-N Yamana Gold, Inc. $12.32 $1,430 0.005 4.528 0.452 $12.20 -1%
GG-N Goldcorp Inc. $48.90 $1,430 0.024 13.113 0.732 $46.87 -4%
IAG-N IAMGOLD Corp. $22.50 $1,430 0.020 -7.113 0.812 $20.79 -8%
ANV-A Allied Nevada Gold Corp. $34.18 $1,430 0.046 -36.665 0.944 $29.69 -13%
NGD-A New Gold, Inc. $11.25 $1,430 0.017 -14.989 0.908 $9.71 -14%
GAM-T Gammon Gold, Inc. $9.72 $1,430 -0.002 10.446 0.037 $7.83 -19%
Figure 6: Silver producers ranked by R-squared (share price versus spot silver)
Impli ed
Late st Po te nti a l
Ti ck e r Co m p a ny Na m e Spo t Si l v e r Sl o p e I n te r ce p t R2 B e st F i t
Cl o s e r e tu r n
Pr i ce
HL-N Hecla Mining Co. $8.98 $37.33 0.363 -1.386 0.852 $12.15 35%
PAAS-Q Pan American Silver Corp. $37.20 $37.33 1.023 5.805 0.912 $44.00 18%
SLW-N Silver Wheaton Corp. $43.80 $37.33 1.642 -12.588 0.958 $48.73 11%
FVI-T Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. $5.54 $37.33 0.201 -1.512 0.921 $6.00 8%
IN THE NEWS
Silver Wheaton (SLW : NYSE | SLW : TSX | HOLD, Target: US$46.50)
We maintain our HOLD rating on Silver Wheaton based on relative valuation following
the release of updated year-end mineral reserves and resources.
Investment Highlights
• Proven and Probable reserves increased by 9% (net of depletions), taking into the
account the acquisition of the silver stream at the Rosemont mine and the divesture
of La Negra. Excluding the Rosemont acquisition, reserves at the other assets
increased by approximately 2% (18 Moz).
• Key highlights included the acquisition of the silver stream at the Rosemont mine
(adding 62.9 Moz Ag in reserves), partially offset by a reserve decrease of 43 Moz
Ag at Pierina. While the update included reserve increases of 32.4 Moz Ag and 28.9
Moz Ag at Los Filos and Veladero, respectively, these are muted by the low process
recovery rates (5% and 6%).
• Year-end reserves and resources are still forthcoming at the Cozamin, Campo
Morado, and Aljustrel mines, and have therefore not been updated in Silver
Wheaton’s release.
• Our valuation had previously been updated to include year-end reserves and
resources provided by Goldcorp (Penasquito), Barrick (Pasqua-Lama) and Primero
(San Dimas).
The impact of the reserves update is largely neutral to our valuation, which will be
revisited as part of our quarterly scorecard update due mid-April.
Investment risks
The typical investment risks associated with any mining investment include commodity
and exchange rate risk, permitting and technical (developmental/operating) risk. In
particular, investors in Silver Wheaton should consider the absence of operational
control and thus reliance on future purchase agreements/acquisitions for growth.
Despite the minor penalties that would be paid to Silver Wheaton if guaranteed
minimum silver deliveries are not met, the company will not be entitled to any
compensation if Luismin or Zinkgruvan do not attain annual production targets or shut
down operations on a temporary or permanent basis. Development risk and timing of
production at Penasquito and Pascua Lama is somewhat protected by a completion
guarantee by Goldcorp with minimum production hurdles by specified dates. Downside
silver price risk is mitigated by virtue of the purchase contracts which allow for the
minimum of the prevailing silver price or $3.90/oz (subject to inflation adjustments).
$/bbl) Expected Inflation (%)
Spot gold price, US$/oz
Precious Metals Weekly | 5
-1.0
-4.0
-7.0
5.0
2.0
150
126
102
37
30
23
16
78
54
30
2
Feb-11
Jun-10 Apr-10
USGGBE02 Index
Jan-07
Gold $/oz
Sep-09 Jul-09
Jul-09 Nov-05
Nov-07
80
60
40
20
-20
0
450
325
200
-50
-175
-300
75
1500
1340
1180
1020
860
700
700
1500
1300
1100
contracts (000s) Net long non-commercial
Gold $/oz Gold $/oz Net long non-commercial
DXY IBOXUMAE Index
300
252
204
156
108
Spot Silver (US$/oz)
40
36
32
28
24
20
16
12
90
86
82
78
74
70
60
8
4
40
37
34
31
28
25
22
19
16
13
10
7
Feb-11 Feb-11 Jan-11 Mar-11
Dec-10 Dec-10 Jan-11
Oct-10 Oct-10
Oct-10 Nov-10
IBOXUMAE Index
Aug-10 Aug-10 Aug-10 Sep-10
Jun-10 Jun-10 May-10 Jul-10
Gold $/oz
Apr-10 Apr-10 Apr-10
Mar-10
Jan-10 Jan-10 Feb-10
Nov-09 Dec-09
Gold/Silv Ratio
Nov-09 Dec-09
Silver
Sep-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Oct-09
Silver
Jul-09 Jul-09 Aug-09
Jul-09
CHARTS AND TRENDS
DXY
Oct-08
Source: Bloomberg
Gold and DXY
Jan-08 Jan-08
Nov-07 Nov-07
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
1500
1400
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
860
700
1500
1340
1180
1020
860
700
1500
1340
1180
1020
Gold/Silver Ratio
Gold $/oz Gold $/oz Gold Price
Precious Metals Weekly | 6
28 March 2011
* Price and target in Canadian dollars, all other figures in US dollars unless noted otherwise.
Adjusted Market Cap, or AMC = Market Capitalization - Working Capital + LT Debt + LOM Capex - Other (base metal) Assets.
R – Restricted.
Source: Bloomberg, Company reports, Canaccord Genuity estimates, Canaccord Genuity Limited estimates
Precious Metals Weekly | 7
28 March 2011
Figure 10: Precious metals companies – Production, cost, and reserve summary
Production Prod'n Total Cash Costs Total Production Costs Recov. Reserves
28-Mar-11 (000 oz Au, mm oz Ag) Growth % (US$/oz) (US$/oz) P&P LOM* Reserve
2010A/E 2011E 2012E 2013E (11-13) 2010A/E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2010A/E 2011E 2012E 2013E (M oz) Growth %
SENIOR PRODUCERS
Barrick Gold 7,771 7,704 7,708 8,401 9% $457 $479 $514 $453 $577 $593 $635 $591 100.1 100.0 0%
Goldcorp 2,423 2,652 2,997 3,298 24% $272 $163 $98 $97 $526 $443 $334 $319 34.9 53.6 54%
Kinross Gold 2,343 2,560 2,573 2,818 10% $508 $594 $488 $478 $776 $886 $755 $759 51.6 64.6 25%
INTERMEDIATE PRODUCERS
African Barrick Gold 701 746 829 842 13% $569 $597 $488 $443 $712 $768 $675 $630 15.1 15.1 0%
Agnico-Eagle Mines 982 1,176 1,300 1,386 18% $460 $389 $408 $400 $642 $636 $639 $632 16.9 17.7 5%
Centerra Gold 679 624 862 1,042 67% $473 $475 $351 $382 $597 $718 $504 $562 5.4 6.9 26%
Eldorado Gold 633 741 841 888 20% $424 $438 $405 $402 $490 $502 $465 $459 5.2 6.0 16%
IAMGOLD 967 1,156 1,064 1,228 6% $574 $587 $548 $536 $744 $748 $728 $727 16.3 20.6 26%
Randgold Resources 440 721 971 975 35% $699 $573 $521 $468 $769 $650 $598 $535 7.7 7.7 0%
Yamana Gold 1,047 1,101 1,199 1,713 56% $441 $467 $462 $398 $766 $670 $656 $587 10.5 12.9 23%
JUNIOR PRODUCERS
Alamos Gold 156 162 190 219 35% $358 $443 $412 $357 $491 $557 $554 $508 2.2 2.2 0%
Allied Nevada 101 130 268 282 116% $417 $461 $509 $498 $486 $612 $664 $693 0.0 7.8 NA
Aura Minerals 138 210 273 296 41% $864 $661 $586 $594 $1001 $884 $826 $972 1.1 1.1 0%
Centamin Egypt 158 317 455 584 84% NA $422 $402 $393 $596 $480 $460 $451 7.1 11.6 63%
Endeavour 82 84 98 179 113% $656 $633 $723 $607 $913 $935 $983 $831 1.4 1.4 0%
Gammon Gold 193 253 363 360 42% $497 $420 $468 $495 $738 $620 $668 $695 3.4 3.4 0%
Golden Star 355 334 289 291 -13% $803 $908 $998 $974 $1025 $1085 $1168 $1146 2.8 4.0 40%
Lake Shore Gold 43 126 159 164 29% NA $582 $481 $450 $510 $693 $600 $585 3.0 3.0 0%
Minefinders 76 135 163 162 20% $620 $521 $466 $463 $753 $611 $567 $572 2.4 2.4 0%
Minera Andes 84 106 118 118 11% $495 $394 $371 $380 $593 $492 $469 $478 1.2 1.2 0%
New Gold 383 382 398 395 3% $428 $369 $145 $ (47) $586 $576 $411 $302 4.5 5.2 16%
Northgate Minerals 273 199 292 348 75% $660 $840 $741 $601 $1012 $1406 $1164 $1130 0.6 0.7 17%
Primero Mining 37 117 164 129 10% $657 $557 $400 $372 $541 $875 $717 $690 0.9 3.2 278%
SILVER PRODUCERS
Hecla Mining 10.6 9.5 9.8 10.3 8% $ (1.46) $ (1.20) $ (0.62) $0.67 $5.29 $5.85 $6.00 $6.78 102.4 200.2 96%
Pan American Silver 24.3 23.6 21.6 40.8 73% $5.68 $6.25 $7.20 $7.63 $9.85 $9.90 $10.74 $11.04 313.0 347.7 11%
Silver Wheaton 18.9 25.1 28.1 31.9 27% $3.97 $4.00 $4.04 $4.07 $6.34 $6.10 $6.17 $6.17 294.6 669.3 127%
Fortuna Silver 1.8 2.6 4.7 4.6 79% $ (7.61) $ (3.56) $2.43 $2.91 $ (3.90) $0.48 $7.14 $7.71 20.3 65.2 222%
EMERGING PRODUCERS
Nevsun Resources 0.0 212.0 261.5 74.0 -65% NA $171.57 $179.82 $- NA $228.65 $252.36 $403.22 0.9 0.9 0%
Osisko Mining 0.0 494.8 687.7 769.5 56% NA $327.76 $335.81 $301.49 NA $321.78 $445.40 $417.80 6.3 9.4 50%
Figure 11: Precious metal companies – Estimated earnings and cash flows
28-Mar-11 25-Mar EPS (fd) EPS Growth P/E CFPS(fd) CFPS Growth P/CF
Currency CLOSE 2010A/E 2011E 2012E 2013E 13/11E 2010A/E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2010A/E 2011E 2012E 2013E 13/11E 2010A/E 2011E 2012E 2013E
SENIOR PRODUCERS
Barrick Gold US$ $51.51 $3.29 $4.92 $4.58 $4.31 (12%) 15.7 10.5 11.3 12.0 $4.29 $6.66 $6.24 $6.22 (7%) 12.0 7.7 8.3 8.3
Goldcorp US$ $48.90 $1.35 $2.00 $2.73 $2.68 34% 36.2 24.5 17.9 18.3 $2.53 $2.98 $3.84 $3.74 26% 19.3 16.4 12.7 13.1
Kinross Gold US$ $16.07 $0.58 $0.66 $1.07 $0.97 48% 27.5 24.5 15.0 16.6 $1.40 $1.23 $1.68 $1.65 34% 11.5 13.0 9.6 9.7
INTERMEDIATE PRODUCERS
African Barrick Gold GBP £5.39 $0.53 $0.75 $0.89 $0.75 (0%) 16.3 11.5 9.7 11.5 $0.85 $1.33 $1.28 $1.13 (15%) 10.2 6.5 6.7 7.6
Agnico-Eagle Mines US$ $67.69 $1.60 $2.70 $3.43 $3.05 13% 42.4 25.1 19.7 22.2 $3.73 $5.14 $5.88 $5.20 1% 18.2 13.2 11.5 13.0
Centerra Gold C$ $17.16 $1.20 $1.48 $2.72 $2.55 72% 14.6 11.8 6.4 6.9 $1.48 $1.79 $3.28 $3.34 87% 11.8 9.8 5.3 5.2
Eldorado Gold US$ $16.27 $0.38 $0.69 $0.91 $0.82 20% 42.7 23.7 17.8 19.7 $0.65 $0.97 $1.28 $1.21 25% 25.2 16.8 12.7 13.5
IAMGOLD US$ $22.50 $0.76 $1.41 $1.34 $1.31 (7%) 29.5 16.0 16.8 17.2 $1.13 $2.04 $1.92 $2.03 (1%) 19.9 11.0 11.7 11.1
Randgold Resources US$ $76.10 $1.12 $4.68 $6.20 $4.98 6% 67.9 16.3 12.3 15.3 $1.43 $5.87 $7.88 $6.59 12% 53.2 13.0 9.7 11.6
Yamana Gold US$ $12.32 $0.60 $1.07 $1.21 $1.32 23% 20.4 11.5 10.2 9.4 $1.01 $1.57 $1.76 $1.97 26% 12.2 7.9 7.0 6.3
Sr./Int. Average 31.6 18.8 14.6 15.7 18.5 12.1 10.0 10.4
JUNIOR PRODUCERS
Alamos Gold C$ $16.35 $0.56 $0.64 $0.85 $0.88 38% 29.7 26.2 19.6 19.0 $0.81 $0.86 $1.12 $1.19 38% 20.7 19.4 15.0 14.0
Allied Nevada US$ $34.18 $0.43 $1.01 $1.29 $1.01 (0%) 78.8 34.0 26.4 34.0 $0.46 $1.22 $1.73 $1.56 28% 74.0 28.0 19.8 21.9
Aura Minerals C$ $3.26 $ (0.13) $0.47 $0.73 $1.60 240% NA 6.9 4.5 2.0 $0.03 $0.74 $1.06 $2.14 190% 118.6 4.5 3.1 1.6
Centamin Egypt C$ $2.22 $0.07 $0.25 $0.36 $0.26 4% 30.9 9.1 6.4 8.8 $0.09 $0.27 $0.42 $0.47 72% 26.3 8.3 5.4 4.8
Endeavour C$ $2.68 $0.64 $0.15 $0.26 $0.73 396% 4.3 18.7 10.3 3.8 $ (0.90) $0.40 $0.52 $1.11 175% NA 6.8 5.2 2.5
Gammon Gold C$ $9.72 $ (1.13) $0.84 $1.06 $0.80 (5%) NA 11.8 9.3 12.5 $0.73 $1.15 $1.47 $1.21 5% 13.6 8.6 6.7 8.2
Golden Star US$ $2.97 $ (0.03) $0.16 $0.08 $0.02 (87%) NA 19.0 37.1 142.8 $0.38 $0.53 $0.35 $0.24 (55%) 7.9 5.6 8.5 12.6
Lake Shore Gold C$ $4.06 $0.03 $0.14 $0.21 $0.18 26% 121.4 28.6 19.6 22.7 $0.04 $0.18 $0.26 $0.24 32% 110.3 22.7 15.8 17.2
Minefinders C$ $12.52 $0.07 $0.78 $1.07 $0.87 12% 171.3 16.4 11.9 14.6 $0.38 $1.02 $1.37 $1.19 16% 33.6 12.5 9.3 10.8
Minera Andes C$ $3.00 NA $0.22 $0.26 $0.22 (1%) NA 13.8 11.7 14.0 NA $0.26 $0.30 $0.26 1% NA 11.9 10.1 11.8
New Gold US$ $11.25 $0.28 $0.45 $0.55 $0.53 17% 39.7 25.0 20.3 21.3 $0.43 $0.70 $0.96 $1.06 52% 26.3 16.1 11.7 10.6
Northgate Minerals US$ $2.68 $0.08 $ (0.04) $0.15 $0.11 NA 33.4 NA 18.0 25.5 $0.63 $0.33 $0.66 $0.73 122% 4.3 8.1 4.1 3.7
Primero Mining C$ $3.91 $ (0.25) $0.10 $0.46 $0.65 NA NA 41.5 8.7 6.2 $0.30 $0.43 $0.85 $1.09 157% 13.4 9.4 4.7 3.7
Junior Average 36.7 15.8 13.1 19.2 39.0 14.3 10.5 10.8
SILVER PRODUCERS
Hecla Mining US$ $8.98 $0.33 $0.43 $0.43 $0.35 (19%) 27.5 20.9 20.8 25.8 $0.72 $0.84 $0.83 $0.71 (15%) 12.5 10.7 10.8 12.7
Pan American Silver US$ $37.20 $1.01 $2.61 $2.15 $2.90 11% 36.8 14.2 17.3 12.8 $2.02 $3.48 $2.74 $4.45 28% 18.4 10.7 13.6 8.4
Silver Wheaton US$ $43.80 $0.75 $1.59 $1.77 $1.67 5% 58.2 27.6 24.7 26.2 $0.92 $1.85 $2.05 $1.99 8% 47.5 23.7 21.3 22.0
Fortuna Silver C$ $5.54 $0.12 $0.20 $0.45 $0.33 60% 48.1 27.7 12.6 17.2 $0.20 $0.42 $0.77 $0.64 51% 27.6 13.4 7.4 8.9
EMERGING PRODUCERS
Nevsun Resources C$ $5.75 $ (0.06) $0.86 $1.09 $1.04 20% NA 6.7 5.3 5.5 $ (0.03) $0.92 $1.18 $1.14 24% NA 6.2 4.9 5.0
Osisko Mining C$ $14.12 $ (0.03) $1.32 $1.77 $1.09 (17%) NA 10.7 8.0 12.9 $ (0.03) $1.45 $1.97 $1.32 (8%) NA 9.8 7.2 10.7
* Price and target in Canadian dollars, all other figures in US dollars unless noted otherwise.
R – Restricted.
Source: Bloomberg, Company reports, Canaccord Genuity estimates, Canaccord Genuity Limited estimates
Precious Metals Weekly | 9
28 March 2011
Price and Target in CDN (CG, AGI, GAM, MFL, KGN, ADM, DGC, OSK, P, AXR, RN, ORA, THO), all other figures in USD unless noted. CEE, EDV estimates expressed on calendar year basis; company reports year end in June
African Barrick closing price, target price, and NAVPS estimates for ABG are shown in GBP
Spot NAV's for Gold Companies calculated at Spot Gold and Long Term Price Deck for Silver and Base Metals
Spot NAV's for Silver Companies calculated at Spot Silver and Long Term Price Deck for Gold and Base Metals
Spot NAV's for GAM, MFL, P calculated at Spot Gold, Spot Silver and Long Term Price Deck for Base Metals Due to High Silver Content
NAV 5% - AVR, THO discounted at 7.5%, AXR discounted at 6%, ADM discounted at 12.5%
Long Term Price Deck - Gold (US$/oz) 2008A: 873, 2009A: 973, 2010A: 1226, 2011E: 1450, 2012E: 1450, 2013E: 1300, 2014E: 1150, 2015E: 1000, 2016E+: 950
Long Term Price Deck - Silver (US$/oz) 2008A: 14.99, 2009A: 14.68, 2010A: 20.21, 2011E: 29.75, 2012E: 29, 2013E: 25, 2014E: 21, 2015E: 18.25, 2016E+: 17.25
Long Term Price Deck - Copper (US$/lb) 2008A: 3.16, 2009A: 2.34, 2010A: 3.42, 2011E: 4.75, 2012E: 4.75, 2013E: 4, 2014E: 3.5, 2015E: 3, 2016E+: 2.5
Long Term Price Deck - Zinc (US$/lb) 2008A: 0.86, 2009A: 0.75, 2010A: 0.98, 2011E: 1.1, 2012E: 1.1, 2013E: 1.1, 2014E: 1.1, 2015E: 1, 2016E+: 0.9
Source: Bloomberg, Capital IQ, Canaccord Genuity estimates, Canaccord Genuity Limited estimates
Precious Metals Weekly | 10
28 March 2011
*Price and target in Canadian dollars, all other figures in US dollars unless noted otherwise.
R – Restricted.
EPS, CFPS estimates based on $1,500/oz peak assumption for gold companies and $30/oz peak for silver companies.
Source: Canaccord Genuity estimates, Canaccord Genuity Limited estimates
Precious Metals Weekly | 11
28 March 2011
INK SPOTS
Canaccord Genuity employs an Insider News and Knowledge research database – INK
Research. This system reports, among other information, daily changes on insider trading.
We highlight recent changes below noting that the acquisition or disposition of a position
is not to suggest an insider is selling their entire position. Our intention is not to evaluate
or analyze any purchases or sales, but to note them for the interest of all investors.
INK Research has created sector indices based on TSX sector definitions. The Gold and
Precious Metals sector indicator suggests that the ratio of buy volume to sell volume is
1.14:1, indicating the balance is skewed towards net buying.
1000 500%
800 400%
600 300%
400 200%
200 100%
0 0%
Feb-08 Jul-08 Nov-08Mar-09 Jul-09 Nov-09Mar-10 Jul-10 Dec-10
Spot Gold price INK - Precious Metals Index (Insider BUY/SELL)
Buy/Sell index indicates volume of insider Buying divided by volume of insider Selling.
Source: Canaccord Genuity, INK Research
Precious Metals Weekly | 12
28 March 2011
We have run a sector search to identify the net buy and sell position changes of
individual companies in our universe over the past few weeks (based on public market
transactions, including options exercise). We provide the data below:
APPENDIX I
Barrick Gold Goldcorp
Sh are Price vs Spot Gold (ABX) Share Price vs Spot Gold (GG)
y = 0.0372x - 1.4831
R² = 0.9348 y = 0.0236x + 13.113
R² = 0.7317
$60.00 $55.00
$55.00 $50.00
$50.00 $ 1 , 430 , $48
$48.
48.90
$ 1 , 430 , $51
$51.
51.51 $45.00
$40.00
$40.00
$35.00
$35.00
$30.00
$30.00
$25.00 $25.00
$20.00 $20.00
$15.00 $15.00
$10.00 $10.00
$650 $850 $1,050 $1,250 $1,450 $1,650 $650 $850 $1,050 $1,250 $1,450 $1,650
Spot Gold (US$/oz) Spot Gold (US$/oz)
$17.00 $70.00
$ 1 , 430 , $67
$67.
67.69
$ 1 , 430 , $16
$16.
16.07
$15.00 $60.00
$13.00
$50.00
$11.00
$40.00
$9.00
$7.00 $30.00
$5.00 $20.00
$650 $850 $1,050 $1,250 $1,450 $1,650 $650 $850 $1,050 $1,250 $1,450 $1,650
Spot Gold (US$/oz) Spot Gold (US$/oz)
$15.00 $15.00
$10.00 $10.00
$5.00
$5.00
$0.00
$0.00
$650 $850 $1,050 $1,250 $1,450 $1,650
$650 $850 $1,050 $1,250 $1,450 $1,650
Spot Gold (US$/oz) Spot Gold (US$/oz)
$ 1 , 430 , $76
$76.
76.10
$70.00 $10.00
$60.00
$8.00
$50.00
$40.00 $6.00
$30.00 $4.00
$20.00 $2.00
$10.00
$0.00
$650 $850 $1,050 $1,250 $1,450 $1,650
$650 $850 $1,050 $1,250 $1,450 $1,650
Spot Gold (US$/oz)
Spot Gold (US$/oz)
Precious Metals Weekly | 14
28 March 2011
$22.00 $20.00
$17.00 $15.00
$ 1 , 430 , $16
$16.
16.35
$12.00 $10.00
$7.00 $5.00
$2.00 $0.00
$650 $850 $1,050 $1,250 $1,450 $1,650 $650 $850 $1,050 $1,250 $1,450 $1,650
Spot Gold (US$/oz) Spot Gold (US$/oz)
$10.00 $5.00
$ 1 , 430 , $9
$9.72
$8.00 $4.00
$6.00 $3.00
$ 1 , 430 , $2
$2.97
$4.00 $2.00
$2.00
$1.00
$0.00
$0.00
$650 $850 $1,050 $1,250 $1,450 $1,650
$650 $850 $1,050 $1,250 $1,450 $1,650
Spot Gold (US$/oz) Spot Gold (US$/oz)
$ 1 , 430 , $2
$2. 68
$2.50
$8.00
$2.00
$6.00
$1.50
$4.00 $1.00
$2.00 $0.50
$0.00
$0.00
$650 $850 $1,050 $1,250 $1,450 $1,650
$650 $850 $1,050 $1,250 $1,450 $1,650
Spot Gold (US$/oz) Spot Gold (US$/oz)
Osisko Minefinders
Share Price vs Spot Gold (OSK ) y = 0.0018x + 7.9196
y = 0.0179x - 10.59 Sh are Price vs Spot Gold (MFL)
R² = 0.889 R² = 0.1053
$14.00
$18.00
$ 1 , 430 , $12
$12.
12.52
$16.00 $12.00
$14.00
$10.00
$12.00
Share Price (C$)
$ 1 , 430 , $14
$14.
14.12
$10.00 $8.00
$8.00
$6.00
$6.00
$4.00 $4.00
$2.00
$2.00
$0.00
$650 $750 $850 $950 $1,050 $1,150 $1,250 $1,350 $1,450 $1,550 $0.00
$25.00 $6.00
$20.00
$4.00
$15.00
$10.00
$2.00
$5.00
$0.00 $0.00
$650 $750 $850 $950 $1,050 $1,150 $1,250 $1,350 $1,450 $1,550
$650 $850 $1,050 $1,250 $1,450 $1,650
Spot Gold (US$/oz)
Spot Gold (US$/oz)
Share Price vs Spot Gold (RN) Share Price vs Spot Gold (ANV) y = 0.0465x - 36.794
y = 0.0041x - 3.5924
R² = 0.9437
R² = 0.6737
$3.00 $40.00
$35.00
$ 1, 430 , $34
$34.
34.18
$2.50
$30.00
$ 1 , 430 , $1
$1.90 $20.00
$1.50 $15.00
$10.00
$1.00
$5.00
$0.50 $0.00
$650 $850 $1,050 $1,250 $1,450 $1,650
$0.00 Spot Gold (US$/oz)
$650 $850 $1,050 $1,250 $1,450 $1,650
Spot Gold (US$/oz)
Precious Metals Weekly | 16
28 March 2011
$ 37.
37 . 33 , $37
$37.
37.20
$30.00 $8.00
$ 37 . 33 , $8
$8.98
$25.00
$6.00
$20.00
$15.00 $4.00
$10.00
$2.00
$5.00
$0.00 $0.00
$6.00 $11.00 $16.00 $21.00 $26.00 $31.00 $36.00 $41.00 $6.00 $11.00 $16.00 $21.00 $26.00 $31.00 $36.00 $41.00
Spot Silver (US$/oz) Sp ot Silver (US$/oz)
$ 37 .33 , $43
$43.
43.80 $4.00
$30.00
$3.00
$20.00
$2.00
$10.00
$1.00
$0.00
$0.00
$6.00 $11.00 $16.00 $21.00 $26.00 $31.00 $36.00 $41.00
$6.00 $11.00 $16.00 $21.00 $26.00 $31.00 $36.00 $41.00
Spot Silver (US$/oz)
Sp ot Silver (US$/oz)
Precious Metals Weekly | 17
28 March 2011
UPCOMING EVENTS
Finally, we provide a calendar of upcoming events.
Barrick 2010 AGM 24-Apr-11 10:00 am EST 255 Front St, Tor S.B.
Agnico-Eagle 2010 AGM 29-Apr-11 11:00 am EST 37 King St, Tor S.B.
Tahoe 2010 AGM 2-May-11 12:00 pm EST 1133 W. Hastings, Van S.B.
Kinross 2010 AGM 4-May-11 10:00 am EST 234 Bay St, Tor S.B.
New Gold 2010 AGM 4-May-11 4:00 pm EST 77 Adelaide St W, Tor S.B.
Northgate 2010 AGM 10-May-11 10:00 am EST 130 King St. W, Tor R.P.
Silver Wheaton 2010 AGM 20-May-11 11:00 am EST 1055 Canada Pl, Van S.B.
S.B. – Steven Butler, R.P. – Rahul Paul
Source: Company reports
Precious Metals Weekly | 18
28 March 2011
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