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13th International Conference Interdisciplinarity in Engineering (INTER-ENG 2019)

Probabilistic methods to assess the fire risk of an industrial building

Ruxandra Dârmona*
a
Technical University of Cluj-Napoca, Daicoviciu, 15, 400020, Cluj-Napoca, România

Abstract

Fire safety is one of the major issues that affects the whole life cycle of a building from the early design stages until the
dismantling. A risk management plan gives a better overview of the whole activity process, revealing the relations between all
the factors involved during the building service life. The use of engineering principles in designing the fire safety strategy can
improve the design flexibility and it can often reduce the costs related to the fire protection materials and equipment. Due to the
complexity of the building system, a probabilistic approach is considered in order to assess the risk and consequences associated
with a fire event in an industrial building. The event trees method has been used to assess the frequency of a fire event in an
industrial building and the associated consequences. The probability risk assessment criteria are set considering the property
protection and business continuity objectives in addition to life safety requirements. The article covers a study case of fire risk
assessment regarded as an optimization technique for sustainable manufacturing and a better management of the fire protection
systems in the industrial buildings. A probabilistic approach for an engineering problem provides a numerical value of risk,
which can also be useful to quantify the probability of unlikely events associated with severe consequences. Moreover, the
probabilistic risk analysis provides data for cost-benefit analysis, which is the starting point for any cost optimisation strategy.

© 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 13th International Conference Interdisciplinarity in
Engineering

Keywords: Fire risk assessment; industrial buildings; event trees; separation elements; property protection.

* Corresponding author. Tel.: +40-753-397-341; fax: -.

E-mail address: Ruxandra.Darmon@ccm.utcluj.ro

2351-9789 © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 13th International Conference Interdisciplinarity in Engineering
2 Ruxandra Dârmon/ Procedia Manufacturing 00 (2019) 000–000

1. Introduction

Many of the major structural failures or natural disasters occurring in the past, led to a subsequent design code
revision and improvements of the calculation methods based on the lessons learnt after each catastrophe.
Freudenthal [1] was one of the first who inferred the great potential of the introduction of the statistical methods
into structural analysis by representing the loads and the resistances through frequency distributions and thus
rationalizing the concept of safety. Later on, based on Freudenthal [1] and Weibull’s [2] work, Cornell [3] developed
the safety index, promoting the safety factors that are required by the Eurocodes these days. The framework for the
modern probabilistic design theory has been laid by Hasofer and Lind [4] who refined the reliability index method.
Performance-based design codes recommend methods to estimate the risk of a building collapse together with the
means to mitigate it and to optimize the structural behavior to different actions occurred over the life cycle of a
structure. Fire is considered an accidental action which occurs randomly. However, the fire safety design is rather
based on traditional practice and prescriptive design codes, than assessed from the structural systems performance
design basis. [5]
Adopting a probabilistic approach can be useful in the decision making process [6], in order to reduce the costs
and to compare the risk reduction associated with different types of fire protection measures, taken for controlling
the fire development and spread within an industrial building.
The interaction between the fire safety and sustainability was one of the main topics of the World Sustainable
Buildings Conference, held recently, in Barcelona [7]. The general conclusion was that the implication of a fire
safety engineer in the sustainability assessment is crucial for a performant building, because the design requirements
and regulations confer only a minimum level of safety on a prescriptive base. Sustainability requires performance
based design.

Nomenclature

A floor area [m2]

c1, c2 coefficients of the Barrois model
r, s coefficients of the Barrois model
𝑓𝑚′′ ignition frequency [1/m2 year]

1.1. Preliminary fire hazard analysis

A preliminary hazard analysis is carried out to identify hazards in early design stage in order to give an overview
of potential hazards, using an example of risk assessment for a woodworking company given by British HSE [8] and
“The Safety guide for woodworking facilities”, issued in Spain [9]. The preliminary hazard analysis helps to identify
the fire initiating events and the means to prevent and mitigate some of the identified risks associated with fire.

Table 1. Preliminary hazard analysis

Fire occurence Cause of fire People exposed Protective measures
Storage area -electrical: shortcut, fault, -working -correct storage of stacked
bulb overheated personnel materials
-overheated cables and -firefighters and -minim 1 m clear distance
equipment rescue teams between the ceiling and the
stack and more than 2.5 m
-damaged or inadequate -neighbours
insulation on cables or wide aisles
wiring - at least 0.5 m between the
stored goods and the internal
walls
Machinery and -poor maintenance and -working -proper and regular
equipment inadequate cleaning of personnel maintenance of all the
heat shrink packaging equipment, plans and
 Ruxandra Dârmon/ Procedia Manufacturing 00 (2019) 000–000 3

equipment -rescue corps machinery, done by a

- loose drive belts or lack
of lubrication leading to
friction
Arson -malcontent former
employee
-intentional action by a
concurrent business
competent person
-approved signs and
instructions of safe use
-working -security measures: fence,
personnel lockers, secured doors and
windows
-firefighters and
rescue teams -adequate lighting
-neighbours -strict access to the site

2. Probabilistic risk assessment

A probabilistic approach has been considered as the most suitable method to quantify the risk of a fire occurrence
in the furniture factory and the reliability of the protection systems. The analysis is conducted on an event tree,
where the initiating event is the ignition of timber stored due to an electrical fault.
The ignition frequency is estimated from the generalized Barrois model as a function of two power law functions
of building surface. According to this correlation, the ignition frequency is dependent on the building category and
on the floor area.

𝑓𝑚′′ (𝐴) = 𝑐1 𝐴𝑟 + 𝑐2 𝐴𝑠 (1)

The probability risk assessment criteria are set considering the property protection and business continuity
objectives in addition to life safety requirements. Thus, the probability of a major fire occurring in the industrial hall
should be acceptably low or As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP).
The probabilities used for the event tree are derived from various sources. It should be noted that for this
example, are used the operational probabilities, which represent the probability that a fire protection system operates
as designed. [10]

2.1. Automatic fire detection

The probability that a fire is detected in early stages is considered high, within a range of 0.76 for flame detectors
and 0.90 for heat and smoke detectors. [11] In general, the thermal detectors have a higher reliability, but they react
more slowly to fire conditions. When it is required a fast response, the optical detectors are a better solution. SFPE
Handbook [12] reccommends the use of a combined system with two different types of detectors on two separate
detection loops within the hazard area. A research report, published by HSE [13] classifies the operational
reliabilities for different detection systems according to the building occupancy and fire type. For operational
reliability of smoke detectors in Industrial buildings and manufacturing industry is given a value of 0.80. This figure
represents a good average and it is further considered in the event tree analysis.

2.2. Automatic fire suppression – Sprinkler system reliability

The modern sprinkler systems have a very high probability of success in controlling a local fire, close to unity,
given that they operate. The operational probability for wet pipe sprinkler systems, according to the NFPA report
[14] is assessed to be 0.98, for deluge and preaction sprinkler systems is 0.95 and for halon systems is reported a
value of 0.96. These values do not include maintenance contributions to unavailability, accounting for manual
actuation and plant specific data or dependent failures. However, for this example case it is assumed that the fire is
extinguished or controlled in 95% of the cases, given that the sprinkler systems operates.
4 Ruxandra Dârmon/ Procedia Manufacturing 00 (2019) 000–000

2.3. Manual fire suppression

A fire can be manually suppressed if it is detected early enough, before the heat release rate reaches a magnitude
of approximately 1 MW [15]. This states that the personnel should be aware about a fire occurrence within 3 – 5
minutes from the fire occurrence, for the manual fire-fighting to be successful. The model proposed by Guymer and
Parry [16] assess a probability of 0.4 that a medium growing fire is manually extinguished and 0.2 respectively, for a
fast growing fire.

2.4. Fire spread outside the compartment boundary

The spread of fire outside the initial compartment is associated with the enclosure boundary failure. Fire can
spread horizontally to the adjacent rooms or it can spread upwards through the roof when the walls or the ceiling and
the roof have reached their capacity to withstand the fire penetration. The data estimations for the compartmentation
operational reliabilities used in this example are taken from a study conducted by Bukovski et al. [10] Thus, for
masonry walls, they give an operational reliability of 0.81 and for gypsum partition walls an operational reliability
of 0.69. For the purpose of this study it was assumed that exterior walls and roof panel systems will have an average
operational probability to withstand a fire of 0.7.

Barriers Fire
Detection Automatic Manual effective scenario Scenario

(Passive fire
suppression suppression protection) probability Frequency Description

Fire detected
yes S1 0,76 3,57E-02 and controlled
0,95
Fire detected
yes yes S2 0,008 3,76E-04 and controlled
0,8 0,2
no yes S3 0,0224 1,05E-03 Fire detected

0,05 no 0,7 and controlled

IE Ignition no
4,70E-02 0,3 S4 0,0096 4,51E-04 Fire develops

yes
0,95 S5 0,19 8,93E-03 Fire controled

no yes
0,2 no 0,2 S6 0,002 9,40E-05 Fire controled

0,05
yes S7 0,0042 1,97E-04 Fire contained

no 0,7
0,8 no S8 0,0018 8,46E-05 Fire develops

0,3

Fig. 1. Event tree analysis.

 Ruxandra Dârmon/ Procedia Manufacturing 00 (2019) 000–000 5

3. Results and discussion

Analysing the event tree, it can be seen that given a fire occurs, the fire will be controlled or extinguished by the
sprinkler system in 76 % of the cases. The probability that the fire develops is very low, less than 1%. This is
considered to be within the ALARP level for this industrial building. The owner specifies that the worst case which
would be acceptable, is to lose one building. The level of acceptable potential damage depends on the value of
capital losses, the loss of income and the extent of damage and start-up costs.
The main concern that is present in all the fire safety regulations is on the human life safety and security. The
industrial buildings have to be designed and built in such manner, that a safe and comfortable work environment is
guaranteed. A good assessment of the security active and proactive measures can prevent the company losses and
activity disruption and it can also improve people satisfaction and productivity.
The fire occurrence represents a serious hazard even when the industrial buildings are complying with the codes
and there are fulfilling the conditions for the safety distances between the adjoining buildings.
Compartmentalization represents a reliable passive fire protection method in order to reduce the fire spread
throughout the building and therefore to limit the potential loss due to a fire occurrence. Unlike the suppression
systems as sprinklers or drenchers which necessitate a permanent maintenance and testing, combined with a
significant water supply, walls provide vertical barriers to prevent the horizontal fire spread and once being in place,
do not require further operations or costs. However, the effectiveness of a separation wall depends on the
construction material and also on the sealing method used when penetrations are made for pipes and wires that are
crossing it.
The type of materials used or compartmentation walls influences the cost of insurance premiums. The research
study published in France by CIMbéton [17] estimates that the basic insurance premium for a warehouse is 10 to
12% higher for a steel frame structure, compared to a concrete frame structure.
The use of non-combustible materials for the external walls, as concrete, masonry or mineral wool core panels is
a reliable method to prevent the fire spread outside the initial compartment where a fire occurred.

4. Conclusion

The use of probabilistic methods to assess the reliability of the fire safety protection systems is a long term
method to improve the performance of an industrial building and to facilitate the decision making process at all
levels. The fire risk assessment is a valuable tool to identify the factors influencing the life safety of building users
and rescue teams as loss of structure load bearing capacity, the maximum levels of stress, strain and deflection in
elements, the integrity and insulation criteria and also the factors to be taken into account from the property
protection and business continuity perspective.

References

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6 Ruxandra Dârmon/ Procedia Manufacturing 00 (2019) 000–000

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