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    This document contains information about various forecasting methods used for time series analysis. It provides a general description and typical applications for several common forecasting techniques, including moving averages, exponential moving averages, decomposition, Box-Jenkins modeling, Fourier series least squares fit, regression analysis, and econometric models. These methods are generally used for short to medium term forecasting. The document also discusses predictive forecasting methods like the Delphi technique, marketing surveys, historical analogy, life cycle analysis, and scenario based forecasting which are applied to longer term predictions for new products and services.

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    TQM Chapter 4.1

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    This document contains information about various forecasting methods used for time series analysis. It provides a general description and typical applications for several common forecasting techniques, including moving averages, exponential moving averages, decomposition, Box-Jenkins modeling, Fourier series least squares fit, regression analysis, and econometric models. These methods are generally used for short to medium term forecasting. The document also discusses predictive forecasting methods like the Delphi technique, marketing surveys, historical analogy, life cycle analysis, and scenario based forecasting which are applied to longer term predictions for new products and services.

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    5 views2 pages

    VISION: A Model Institution With Fully Developed Technical Vocational Education and Skills

    Uploaded by

    judelyn jamil
    This document contains information about various forecasting methods used for time series analysis. It provides a general description and typical applications for several common forecasting techniques, including moving averages, exponential moving averages, decomposition, Box-Jenkins modeling, Fourier series least squares fit, regression analysis, and econometric models. These methods are generally used for short to medium term forecasting. The document also discusses predictive forecasting methods like the Delphi technique, marketing surveys, historical analogy, life cycle analysis, and scenario based forecasting which are applied to longer term predictions for new products and services.

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    TRINIDAD MUNICIPAL COLLEGE

    Poblacion, Trinidad, Bohol

    VISION : A model institution with fully developed technical vocational education and skills
    of manpower with positive work attitudes anchored in the core values of Professionalism
    and Leadership essential in the creation of self – reliant citizens.

    MISSION: To build well – trained professionals, competent and employable that will meet
    the demands in the world market.

    College of Office Administration


    BSOA 2

    Subject Code : TQM


    Subject : Operation Management
    Instructor : Cabulao, Lord Louiel O. LPT
    Semester : First Semester

    Module 4
    CHAPTER 4.1
    CLASSIFICATION OF EXPONENTIAL
    - Smoothing models
    - Linear or additive trend model
    - Ration seasonality model
    - Additive trend and ratio seasonality model
    - Initialization
    - Adaptive methods
    CAUSAL OR EXPLANATORY METHODS
    - Regression analysis
    - Econometric methods

    METHODS OF FORECASTING
    Method General Description Application
    Time Series Forecasting Models
    Moving averages Forecasting based on Short range forecast for
    projection from time series operations such as
    data smoothed by a moving inventory, schedules,
    average, taking account of control, pricing, and timing
    trends and seasonal special promotions.
    variations.
    Requires at least two years
    of historic data.
    Exponential moving Similar to moving average Short range forecast for
    average but the averages are operations such as
    weighted exponentially to inventory, schedules,
    give more recent more data control, pricing, and timing
    heavier weight. Well special promotions.
    adapted to computer
    application and large
    numbers of items to be
    forecast.
    Requires at least two years
    of historical data.
    Decomposition Each component of the time Medium range forecast and
    series is extrapolated forecast of aggregate data,
    separately and the results air traffic, business activity,
    are then combined to etc.
    produce a forecast.
    Box- Jenkins Models a time series by a Short and medium range
    combination of moving forecast of sales.
    averages and
    autocorrelation terms
    Fourier series least squares Fits a finite Fourier series Short and medium range
    fit equation to empirical data, forecast of sales.
    projecting trend and
    seasonal values.
    Requires at least two years
    of historical data.
    Causal Forecasting Methods
    Regression analysis Forecast of demand related Short and medium range
    to economic and competitive forecasting of existing
    actors that control or cause products and services;
    demand, through the least marketing strategies,
    squares regression production and facility
    equation. planning.
    Econometric models Based on system of Short and medium range
    interdependent regression forecasting of existing
    equations. products and services;
    marketing strategies,
    production and facility
    planning.
    Predictive Methods
    Delphi Expert panel answers a Long range predictions; new
    series of questionnaire products and product
    where the answers to each development, market
    questionnaire and are strategies, pricing and
    summarized and made facility planning.
    available to the panel to aid
    in answering next
    questionnaire.
    Marketing surveys Testing markets through Long range predictions; new
    questionnaires, panels, products and product
    surveys, test of trial development, market
    products, and analysis of strategies, pricing and
    time data. facility planning.
    Historical analogy and life Prediction based on analysis Long range predictions; new
    cycle analysis and comparison with the products and product
    growth and development of development, market
    similar products. strategies, pricing and
    Forecasting new product facility planning.
    growth based on the S-
    curve of introduction, growth
    and market saturation.
    Scenario based forecasting Uses expert judgment in Long range predictions; new
    predicting alternative future products and product
    scenarios. development, market
    strategies, pricing and
    facility planning.

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