Good afternoon, everyone today I’m going to present on the techniques of Demand

Forecasting.

Slide-01
So, firstly we will discuss about what is forecasting.

Predicting future demand for the right quality and quantity is called forecasting. For Example: Weather
forecasting, the evening news gives the weather "forecast" not the weather "prediction." Regardless,
the terms forecast and prediction are often used inter-changeably.

Slide-02
An attempt at predicting future demand may be made after obtaining information about different
aspects of the market and demand that are dependent on past events and trends. We call this entire
concept of analyzing Demand Forecasting.
Demand forecasting helps the business make better-informed supply decisions that estimate the
total sales and revenue for a future period of time.

Slide-03
Now there are some different techniques by which any organization can easily forecast the demand like:
Trend analysis, Managerial estimate, Delphi Technique, Work Study Techniques & Time series.

Slide-04
Trend Analysis: It is one of the most widely used methods for forecasting HR demand is to
forecast employment requirements based on some organizational index.
Like: Total number of employees, Calculating the HR demand, Comparing the productivity ratio,
Forecasting HR Requirements.

Slide-05
Then in Managerial Judgement, A very simple technique is used. Managers gather to discuss
and come up with a number that represents the future demand for labour.
Bottom-Up approach & Top-Down approach are the two possible approaches when it comes to
this technique

Slide-06
In Delphi Technique, the organization utilizes the feedback of experts for the purpose of
forecasting future human resource requirements.
The HR department gather information and compile it into reports that summaries expert
opinions in detail. Researchers collect feedback and compile reports until consensus is reached
among the experts.’ Then if experts cannot come to an agreement, the Delphi technique can be
drawn out over a period of time.

Slide-07
Now work-study Technique: The work study technique, also known as workload analysis,
forecasts comprehensive activities and production for a specified future time period.
If any organization use this method, they'll end up with a reasonable approximation for how
many hours you'll need to work per unit produced.

Slide-08
They must take into account the following when estimating future work hours needed:
• Resignations, Dismissals, Technical difficulties, Turnover Rate.

Slide-09
The series techniques, is the method of extracting meaningful statistics and other
characteristics from the data through time series analysis.
In time series forecasting, a mathematical model is used in order to make predictions about the
future based on the past.

Slide-10
Now there are some components of Time Series are given which are:

Secular Trend: "Secular" means "continuing in the same direction for a long period of time"... The
direction of a long-term trend's secular movement can be neutral (flat), positive, or negative.

Seasonal Variation: As the name implies, seasonal variations are differences within the same year that
occur more or less regularly. like:  Temperature, rainfall, public holidays, seasonal cycles, and holidays
can all contribute to seasonal variations in a population's behaviour.

Cyclical Variation: Cyclical variations are recurrent upward or downward movements in a time series
but the period of cycle is greater than a year. It is necessary for a business cycle to go through four
phases: prosperity, recession, depression and recovery before it can be considered complete.

And the last on is Irregular Variation: When a pattern does not repeat, it is said to be irregular
variations of the same thing. Other types of variations include seasonal, Secular Trend and seasonal and
cyclical movement as well. Floods, earthquakes, strikes, and wars cause irregular variations.