LOTTERY

I choose the lotto as a game analyst to show the nil chances of winning. I am
going to show the probabilities of winning this game. First we must discuss the rules.

Rules of the Lottery Game

It is always important to find out the rules of any game before participating in it.
For the Grandlotto 6/55, in order to win the jackpot prize, you have to match six
numbers from a pool of 55 numbers ranging from 1-55. The initial payout is a minimum
of ₱20.00. It is also possible to win some money if you are able to match three, four, or
five numbers of the winning combination. Note that the order of the winning combination
here does not matter.

Here is a table for the prizes you can obtain:

No. of Matching Prize Money

Numbers

6 minimum of ₱30 Million

5 ₱150,000.00

4 ₱2,000.00

3 ₱150.00

Some Probability Concepts

Before we start with the calculations, I would like to talk

about Permutations and Combinations. This is one of the basic concepts you learn in
Probability Theory. The main difference being that permutations consider order to be
important, while in combinations, order isn't important.

In a lottery ticket, permutation should be used if the numbers in your ticket have
to match the order of the draw for the winning string of numbers. In the Grandlotto 6/55,
order is not important because so long as you have the winning set of numbers, you can
win the prize.
 The next formulas only apply for numbers without repetition. This means that if
the number x is drawn, it cannot be drawn again. If the number drawn from the set is
returned before the next draw, then that has repetition.

This is the formula for Permutations, where order is important.

This is the formula for Combinations, where order is not important.

dezalyx
, where n! = n * (n - 1) * (n - 2) * ... * 3 * 2 * 1.

Note that based on the formulas given, C(n,k) is always less than or equal to P(n,k).
You will see later on why it is important to make this distinction for calculating lottery
odds or probability.

How to Calculate Lottery Probability for 6 Matching

Numbers
So now that we know the basic concepts of permutations and combinations, let
us go back to the example of Grandlotto 6/55. For the game, n = 55, the total number of
possible choices. k = 6, the number of choices we can make. Because order is not
important, we will use the formula for combination:
 These are the odds or the total number of possible combinations for any 6-digit
number to win the game. To find the probability, just divide 1 by the number above, and
you will get: 0.0000000344 or 0.00000344%. See what I mean by depressing odds?

So what if we're talking about a different lottery game where order does matter.
We will now use the permutation formula to get the following:

Compare these two results and you will see that the odds for getting the winning
combination where order matters has 3 additional zero's! It's going from about 28
million:1 odds to 20 billion:1 odds! The probability of winning for this case is 1 divided by
the odds which equals to 0.0000000000479 or 0.00000000479%.

As you can see, because the permutation is always greater than or equal to the
combination, the probability of winning a game where order matters is always less than
or equal to the probability of winning a game where order does not matter. Because the
risk is greater for games where order is required, this implies that the reward must also
be higher.

How to Calculate Lottery Probability with Less Than 6

Matching Numbers

Because you can also win prizes if you have less than 6 matching numbers, this
section will show you how to calculate the probability if there are x matches to the
winning set of numbers.

First, we need to find the number of way to choose x winning numbers from the
set and multiply it by the number of ways to choose the losing numbers for the
remaining 6-x numbers. Consider the number of ways to choose x winning numbers.
Because there are only 6 possible winning numbers, in essence, we are only choosing x
from a pool of 6. And so, because order does not matter, we get C(6, x).
 Next, we consider the number of ways to choose the remaining 6-x balls from the
pool of losing numbers. Because 6 are winning numbers, we have 55 - 6 = 49 balls to
choose the losing numbers from. So, the number of possibilities for choosing a losing
ball can be obtained from C(49, 6 - x). Again, order does not matter here.

So, in order to calculate the probability of winning with x matching numbers out of
a possible 6, we need to divide the outcome from the previous two paragraphs by the
total number of possibilities to win with all 6 matching numbers. We get:

If we write this in a more general form, we get:

, where n = total number of balls in the set, k = total number of balls in the winning
combination for the jackpot prize, and x = total numbers of balls matching the winning
set of numbers.

If we use this formula to calculate the probability (and the odds) of winning the
Grandlotto 6/55 with only x matching numbers, we get the following:

x
Probabilit
matche Calculation Odds (1/Probability)
y
s

0 C(6,0) * 0.48237 2.07308

C(49,6)/C(55,6)

1 C(6,1) * 0.39466 2.53777

 x
Probabilit
matche Calculation Odds (1/Probability)
y
s

C(49,5)/C(55,6)

2 C(6,2) * 0.10963 9.12158

C(49,4)/C(55,6)

3 C(6,3) * 0.01271 78.67367

C(49,3)/C(55,6)

4 C(6,4) * 0.00060 1643.40561

C(49,2)/C(55,6)

5 C(6,5) * 0.00001 98604.33673

C(49,1)/C(55,6)

6 C(6,6) * 0.00000003 28989675

C(49,0)/C(55,6)