Министерство науки и высшего образования Российской Федерации

Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение

высшего образования
«Уральский федеральный университет
имени первого Президента России Б.Н. Ельцина»

Институт экономики и управления

Кафедра международной экономики и менеджмента

ДОПУСТИТЬ К ЗАЩИТЕ ПЕРЕД ГЭК

Зав. кафедрой Международной
экономики и менеджмента
_________________ Ружанская Л.С.

«______»_________________2021 г.

GRADUATION THESIS

DEVELOPMENT OF TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE OF THE BRICS

COUNTRIES

Scientific advisor Elena Tissen 

PhD, Associate professor 
Technical control: Alexander
Ishukov
Student: Daria Ernst

Ekaterinburg
 2021

ABSTRACT

This document reports on the results of a comparative analysis of the transport

infrastructure of the BRICS countries. The study used a systematic literature review
to determine the transport infrastructure and its impact on the country's development.
An empirical analysis of data for 2015-2020 was carried out on such indicators as
passenger turnover and freight turnover by type of transport, labor force in the
industry, country area, level of urbanization of the population, GDP per capita,
investment in transport infrastructure. The resulting analysis and conclusions, based
on a methodological consideration of various external and internal factors, reveal the
unique situation in each of the selected countries, which either hinders or contributes
to the development of transport infrastructure. Benchmarking tools will be used as
research methods, panel data methods such as panel least squares, panel least squares
with fixed effects and panel least squares with random effects will be used to study
collective impact by bringing together all BRICS countries. When writing the work,
the World and regional statistics, national data, maps and estimates from the World
Data Atlas were used.
Empirical data analysis showed a positive relationship between passenger
traffic, workforce in the structure, urbanization of the population and the area of the
country, taking into account Air Transport; a positive relationship between passenger
traffic, labor force in the structure, urbanization of the population and GDP per
capita, as well as the negative impact of rising gasoline prices, taking in-to account
Road transport; a positive relationship between freight traffic, labor force in the
structure, urbanization of the population, country area and gasoline prices, taking into
account Rail transport. In conclusion, the document notes the strategic directions for
the development of the transport system for the balanced development of transport
infrastructure.

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 CONTETNTS

INTRODUCTION...............................................................................................................3
1 Concept and characteristics of transport infrastructure in the world economy 6
1.1 Concept and essence of transport infrastructure...................................................6
1.2 Methodological approaches to assessing the development of countries’
transport infrastructure.................................................................................................................12
1.3 The state of transport infrastructure at the present stage..................................18
2 Analysis of transport infrastructure of the BRICS countries..............................33
2.1. Methods and hypotheses of researching factors of influence on the
development of transport infrastructure...................................................................................33
2.2. Descriptive statistics of transport infrastructure development indicators...36
2.3. Empirical study of the factors of influence of the development of transport
infrastructure of the BRICS countries......................................................................................38
2.4 Transport infrastructure and sustainable development: points of contact....43
CONCLUSION..................................................................................................................53
BIBLIOGRAPHY.............................................................................................................56
APPENDIX A. Theory.....................................................................................................62
APPENDIX B. Results.....................................................................................................64
APPENDIX С. Tests.........................................................................................................66
APPENDIX D. Data.........................................................................................................68

3
 INTRODUCTION

Initially, the acronym BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) meant the most
profitable emerging markets for investment. Today, analyzing the BRICS countries
(the four mentioned above plus the Republic of South Africa that joined them in
2011), we are talking about an alliance of reformers of the world financial and trade
and economic systems. The evolution of the BRICS has largely become the response
of the five largest countries of the world to the imbalance of the modern global
economy, political chaos in the post-bipolar world. Informal association allows the
participating countries to more effectively implement their national interests, as well
as the interests of those poorly represented in international organizations, at world
and regional forums of developing countries and countries with emerging markets.
As a result, this group of states gets the opportunity to more actively participate in
making important geopolitical decisions.
Globalization and information and communication technologies (ICT) have
given a powerful impetus to the development of many industries and sectors of the
economy. These industries include the transport complex and the corresponding
infrastructure. Moreover, we are talking not only about quantitative, but also about
qualitative indicators characterizing the functioning of this complex, as well as new
transport services and services: container shipping, logistics, surveyor and other
related services. To a large extent, the current state and prospects for the development
of the global transport infrastructure are determined by the dynamics and structure of
international trade, as well as technological progress taking place in the transport
complex itself and its individual industries. The most important role in this is played
by governments that finance infrastructure projects on various terms (budget, co-
financing, concessional lending, public-private partnerships, etc.), since in most
countries the infrastructure is owned or directly responsible.
The problems of the transport industry at different times were studied by such
Russian scientists as Apatsev V.I., Anisimov A.P., Belousova N.I., Butin I.A.,
Zolotovskaya N.K., Elizarov V.A., Ivanov M.Yu., Naydenov I., Kuznetsova O.A.,
Mogilevkin, I., Spirin I.V., Shegai E.V., Ulyanitskaya N.M., Yufin V.K., as well as
4
scientific leaders of foreign countries: D. Zakom, D. Kornet, Liberacki B.V., Lorenz,
D. Mayer, H. Medorn. In their scientific works, general theoretical developments
were investigated, considering the functioning of modern transport complexes from
the point of view of a general system approach. However, despite the fact that
scientists around the world regularly deal with this problem, it still has not lost its
relevance.
The high rates of economic growth, characteristic of many developing
countries in recent decades, would not have been possible without the creation of
powerful transport infrastructure in them. Large-scale infrastructure construction, in
turn, stimulated economic growth, in particular due to additional demand for the
products of industrial sectors (mechanical engineering, metallurgy, metal structures,
building materials, etc.). Most importantly, it ensured the active inclusion of the
former periphery in the international division of labor, world trade and global value
chains.
The BRICS countries account for 21% of world GDP, and their economies are
promising for foreign investment. However, not all BRICS countries have a well-
developed transport infrastructure. The most developed transport infrastructure is in
China and Russia, significantly inferior to Brazil and India. The largest investment
inflow is experienced by the Republic of South Africa.
The object of the research is the international association BRICS. The subject
of the research is transport infrastructure as a way for the development of the
economies of countries at a new level.
The purpose of the thesis is to analyze the factors affecting the development of
transport infrastructure, as well as to determine the capabilities of these countries and
ways of developing transport infrastructure in the context of the world economy. This
goal is achieved by solving the following tasks:
- characterize the transport infrastructure as the engine of the economy;
- explore the transport management system in the BRICS countries;
- determine the factors influencing the development of the transport structure;
- conduct empirical data analysis;

5
 - assess ways and measures to improve the current state of transport
infrastructure.
This thesis consists of an introduction, two chapters, a conclusion, a list of used
sources and applications.
The first part examines the concept and characteristics of infrastructure in
general.
The second part is devoted to the study of the infrastructure management
system in the BRICS countries, the identification of the fundamental positions for the
development of this sector of the economy of the countries.
The scientific novelty of the research lies in the development of theoretical and
methodological provisions for the activation of transport infrastructure in conjunction
with the socio-economic growth of the region, substantiation of directions for
increasing the effectiveness of its use.
The analysis of the transport infrastructure was carried out on the basis of the
study of theoretical aspects and previous scientific works on the topic. When writing
the work, the World and regional statistics, national data, maps and ratings from the
World Data Atlas were used. Benchmarking tools will be used as research methods,
panel data methods such as panel least squares, panel least squares with fixed effect
and panel least squares with random effects are used to study collective impact by
combining all BRICS countries.
It is assumed that the study will concretize the features of the influence of
transport infrastructure indicators on the investment volume in the transport sector of
countries and identify the conditions for the development of the transport sector.

6
 1 Concept and characteristics of transport infrastructure in the world
economy
1.1 Concept and essence of transport infrastructure

The first stage of scientific knowledge of the nature of infrastructure was

formed by the reproductive approach, where infrastructure is considered as an
independent element of the production process, performing various tasks depending
on the economic process, in particular expanded reproduction. A well-known
specialist in the field of transport G.A. Golts, exploring infrastructure as a factor of
the country's advanced socio-economic development, understands it as "the whole
complex of devices, systems, structures that ensure reproductive processes in the
economic, social, cultural, ecological, demographic, managerial, political spheres of
society" [8].
Professors V.I. Vidyapin and M.V. Stepanov in the textbook "Regional
Economics" give the following interpretation: "Infrastructure (buildings, structures,
housing stock, intracity transport, roads, bridges, engineering networks, CHP, non-
production sphere) is what ensures the functioning of the main production in this
territory, but is not included in the composition of industrial enterprises” [28].
A number of authors consider the concepts of "transport system" and "transport
infrastructure" to be practically identical in a certain context. Linking directly the
transport system with the general development of productive forces, the authors
consider it as one of the most important components of the infrastructure of the
economy as a whole. So, for example, Yu. I. Avadeni from the standpoint of a
systems approach understands a transport system as the totality of its components,
such as technical and managerial parts, and suggests in this sense to consider the
terms "transport system" and "transport complex" as synonyms [3].
Quite often in the literature one can find a narrow understanding of the
transport system, only as a network of communication routes. We cannot agree with
this approach - apart from the means of communication, which, of course, are one of
the elements of the transport system, it is necessary to take into account the presence
of its technical and managerial components. In this regard, one can agree with S.V.
7
Ganzin, who notes that the transport system is a “territorial association of a network
of communication routes, technical means (including rolling stock) and transportation
services, which, uniting all types of transport and all components of the transport
process in their interaction, ensures the implementation of transport and economic
relations with the aim of the successful functioning of the country's economy” [4].
LN Rudneva, AM Kudryavtseva define it from the standpoint of three main
methodological approaches - technocratic (or industry), functional and cost [21]. SO
Savinova, ON Frolova distinguish the fourth methodological approach - the systemic
one [23].
From the standpoint of a technocratic (sectoral, technical and technological)
approach, transport infrastructure is defined as a kind of engineering infrastructure,
which is a technological complex that ensures the rapid and unhindered
implementation of the transportation process [26]. The desire of the authors of the
normative act is quite understandable to reflect not only the actual, but also the
desired state of the transport infrastructure - "quick and unhindered" performance of
the function assigned to it. But if these conditions are violated, it, as an element of the
system, does not triple its characteristics. Moreover, the terms “fast” and
“unobstructed” are rather vague and therefore cannot be considered as characteristics
of the transport infrastructure. Another issue is that its management involves the
achievement of a certain normative state, which includes speed and restrictions
("obstacles"),
In general, such an approach, interpreted as technocratic, sectoral, technical
and technological, etc., should be considered as systemic and technological. The
inclusion of a systematic element in the definition of the term reflects the actual view
of scientists on the object under study. For example, L. G. Serebryakov and V. V.
Yanovsky propose to understand transport infrastructure as a part of the engineering
infrastructure, including a complex of transport communications and other devices
that provide passenger and cargo transportation, contributes to the sustainable
development and functioning of the country and regions [25]. Essential in this
definition is an indication of the constituent parts of the infrastructure, which reflects

8
its position in the technical and technological system. In the socio-economic sense,
the author's striving to characterize the two main functions of the transport
infrastructure is noticeable - the spatial movement of people and goods.
The understanding by different authors of the content of transport infrastructure
objects within the framework of the system-technological approach differs. Taking
into account technological progress and a number of other factors, it is extremely
difficult to cover the entire set of objects, therefore, the classification of transport
infrastructure objects proposed by researchers may differ from each other in the depth
and breadth of the signs of their separation.
For example, S. Yu. Maksimova identifies five groups of transport
infrastructure objects: a transport network of various types of transport - general and
"non-public" use; rolling stock of various types of transport; control system for
various types of transport; transport and road organizations that support and operate
the transport network by mode of transport; labor resources that implement tasks in
the field of transport [17]. As you can see, the author examines a wide range of
infrastructure elements that go beyond technical and technological characteristics. As
you can see, the technical and technological characteristics of transport forms a multi-
level system, the elements of which can be considered in any detail. This approach
makes it possible to analyze the state and development prospects of not only transport
as a self-sufficient system, but also its infrastructure component.
N. A. Ivanova, V. V. Yanovskiy, L. G. Serebryakov quite definitely adhere to
the functional approach, according to which the transport infrastructure is a special
set of certain functions to provide conditions for the smooth and fast implementation
of the transportation process [13, 29]. It should be noted that "fast and free" are not
functions per se, but reflect the quality of their implementation. The actual functional
characteristics include "the creation of conditions for the implementation of the
transportation process." At the same time, it does not. As defined in the Cambridge
Advanced Learner's Dic-tionary & Thesaurus [5], “infrastructure” is the basic
systems and services, such as transportation and power supplies, that a country or
organization uses to operate efficiently. Infrastructure is an integral part of the

9
territorial structure of the national economy, which is formed by transport,
communications, trade, energy and water management systems, as well as residential
buildings, schools, healthcare, culture, sports and other care facilities. inhabitants and
their location in any territory [22].
One of the main elements of the infrastructure complex is the transport
infrastructure of the region. The transport infrastructure forms the framework of the
territory, participates in all economic processes, therefore, it seems necessary to
consider the theory of the emergence of this type of infrastructure.
Infrastructure is a complex area with many different components involved; but
they can all be divided into two main types of infrastructures. It is a hard and soft
infrastructure.
A fairly complete understanding of the function of transport infrastructure,
since the creation of conditions is a very broad concept.
Hard Infrastructure refers to the physical network that keeps an industrialized
nation smoothly functional. Among the components that are classified under the hard
infrastructure are the capital assets like the utilities, transport vehicles,
telecommunication systems, roads, highways, railways, subways, traffic lights and
street lights, dams, walls and culverts, drainage systems, the airports and bus
terminals, and bridges, among others.
The soft infrastructure, on the other hand, is the framework required to keep
and maintain the different institutions. This can also include both the physical and the
non-physical assets. Examples of physical assets are the buildings that house the
network and the equipment used to maintain the institution. For non-physical assets,
this includes the software and programs, the governing rules and regulations, the
financial system, and the organizational structure. In essence, the soft infrastructure
embodies the system of delivery of services to the people. Transport infrastructure is
one of the most important elements of the infrastructure nowadays. Transport
infrastructure facilitates the development of connections between regions within a
country and between countries, and consequently, it supports the formation of mutual
economic, social, cultural relations.

10
 To evaluate the results of the transport infrastructure development, first of all it
is necessary to determine the role of transport infrastructure in the overall system of
transport and logistics. This approach allows identifying the factors and conditions
that affect the transport infrastructure development; in the future, it can assist in
determination of the range of measurement indicators and characterization of the
transport infrastructure development. It is generally assumed that the logistics
infrastructure which conditions the effective performance of the logistics processes
comprises “technical means, manners to handle them and systems of how to use
them” [11].
Therefore, the logistics infrastructure is a set of various facilities, equipment
and means and technical devices which facilitate the completion of the logistics
processes in the logistics micro- and macrosystems. The logistics infrastructure
within such meaning of the concept comprises:
- warehousing infrastructure, including: buildings and premises, storage
yards, warehouse equipment;
- the so-called handling infrastructure, including: internal transport, auxiliary
equipment for commodity handling;
- transport infrastructure;
- transport packaging infrastructure: marked with a code, not marked with a
code;
- IT infrastructure, including: hardware, software, orga-technical means, and
equipment for telecommunication purposes.
An analysis of scientific literature allows us to conclude that the infrastructure
is an integral economic category, which simultaneously forms the conditions for the
sustainable functioning and development of economic production and life support, as
well as itself is a complex unit of the regional economy, without which it is
impossible to ensure the integrity of space.
Transport infrastructure is an integral part of the transport system of any city or
state. In connection with the development of society and the intensification of
international relations in connection with the processes of globalization, the

11
importance of transport as a factor of economic and social development has
increased. Various aspects of activities related to the development of transport
infrastructure are increasingly becoming objects of scientific research. Transport as
an economic factor is a measure of economic activity, and at the same time, transport
is a reflection of economic activity. Thus, the issues of measuring the efficiency of
transport infrastructure and the relationship between transport infrastructure and
economic growth are topics of discussion in both academic and non-academic circles.
The transport complex, on the one hand, is a type of economic activity (FEA),
which creates conditions for the functioning of the economic complex of the region,
and on the other hand, it is a resource that limits the possibilities of socio-economic
development. At all levels of state regulation and management, taking into account
the vast territory of the Russian Federation, reliable transport services in accordance
with the best world standards are considered as one of the main conditions for the
functioning of the economy and its transition to an innovative vector of development.

1.2 Methodological approaches to assessing the development of countries’

transport infrastructure

To fully understand the problem of this work and the most suitable method, a
review of research conducted by other authors on the relevant topic is required. Since
it is assumed that the development of transport infrastructure will have a positive
effect on the development of the entire BRICS alliance, it is worth paying attention to
the work of Analysis of transport infrastructure development and competitiveness in
the member countries of the Pacific Alliance (2007-2016) [6]. The research uses a
qualitative study to carry out a comparative analysis of variables. The type of tool
used in the study is based on the compilation of statistical information obtained from
databases on infrastructure and competitiveness of the Word Economic Forum
(WEF), Infralatam, Doing Business, and Comtrade. This work deals with
competitiveness, but it can be highlighted that there is a clear relationship between it
and the time and costs of exports and imports. In addition, it is confirmed that
positive dynamics between indicators is not the rule for all countries. Each of them

12
has its own characteristics that significantly distort the analysis results. Deterioration
in export competitiveness has been observed across all Pacific Alliance countries due
to significant increases in container costs for both exports and imports. These costs
were significantly impacted by the devaluation of each member's local currency
against the US dollar. Although Colombia invested the most in transport
infrastructure during the period under review, it is nevertheless the Pacific Alliance
country with the highest export and import costs. On the other hand, the way in which
infrastructure investments are financed has an impact on the long-term cost
distribution of the project, toll rates, and competitiveness, thus generating both
positive and negative externalities for the agents who move freight in each country.
Finally, it is evident that PPPs prove to be positive for Latin America, since they
share the risk that previously fell solely to the State and create economic incentives
that promote efficiency. The development of transport infrastructure is a key element
in improving competitiveness, as it reduces the effect of distance and freight costs,
which allows for more efficient market integration. This descriptive study uses a
comparative methodology that uses as variables the global competitiveness of the
Pacific Alliance countries for the period 2007-2016. Analysis of the results shows a
weak trend in the development of infrastructure of the Pacific Alliance group and a
noticeable asymmetry between the member countries. Each country needs a tailor-
made strategy that is consistent with the objectives of trade integration in Asia.
Another finding suggests that achieving better performance depends on other
significant variables and how the costs of transport infrastructure investment are
passed on to freight agents.
Speaking about the positive impact of the transport industry on the
development of the BRICS countries, one can cite Empirical Analysis of the
Dynamic Relationships between Transport, ICT and FDI in 63 Countries. This study
examines the relationship between information and communication technology (ICT),
transport and foreign direct investment (FDI) in countries with different income
levels during the period 2000-2016. It examines the impact of ICT and transport on
the territorial attractiveness of FDI in host countries. The global panel of 63 countries

13
was divided into three subgroups. Using GMM estimates, we found that these
variables influence each other over the long term. The direction of causality varies
across panels with different levels of significance. These empirical studies are of
particular interest to policymakers in both developed and developing countries. They
prove the significant impact of transport and ICT infrastructure on the economic
development of host countries due to their significant contribution to increasing the
attractiveness of FDI. Moreover, the results confirm the positive role of transport and
ICT in supporting economic growth by increasing the economic openness of
countries and increasing their participation in international trade [24].
It has long been no secret that in modern conditions, improving the efficiency
of logistics is of particular importance, especially for countries with developing
economies. The development of logistics acts as a driver of the competitiveness of
the country's economy, improving the quality of life of the population and rational
integration into the world economy. Therefore, the states of countries with
developing economies face the global task of becoming a kind of transit and logistics
hub in the region, a "bridge" between Europe and Asia, the implementation of which
directly depends on the development of transport logistics, the main factor. in
stimulating sustainable rates of industrial growth and the formation of competitive
advantages of the economic system. Hence follows the high urgency of solving
problems aimed at the development of transport and logistics infrastructure, in
particular, at the formation of transport and logistics hubs, as an integral and key
component that ensures an increase in the efficiency of the transport complex. In this
regard, the work Design and evaluation of efficiency of macro-logistic systems for
countries with developing economy is very interesting. The development of logistics
and its investment is carried out in various countries according to individual
scenarios, as shown to us by the forecast values of exports and imports of road cargo
transportation among the CIS countries, adjusted for the peculiarities of national
economic policy, geographic, demographic characteristics, urbanization and the level
of development of the general infrastructure of specific regions. A common feature of
the logistics systems of developed European, American and Asian markets is an

14
orientation towards modernization through the introduction of modern information
technologies and an expansion of the range of IT services. Focusing on the processes
of functioning of logistics systems and supply chains of industrial enterprises, it is
important to note that due to the circumstances of the development and dissemination
of information technologies within the framework of the digitalization of the
economy, new opportunities open up for the exchange of information between
individual production, logistics and auxiliary systems and their elements, as well as
produced and serviced. within the latest products and the external environment. From
the standpoint of business, logistics is an integral management tool that contributes to
the achievement of strategic, tactical or operational goals of its organization through
effective (in terms of reducing overall costs and meeting the requirements of end
users for the quality of products and services) management of material flows, service
flows, and related them flows of information and finance [15]. Thus, in modern
conditions, logistics and logistics systems are becoming important elements of the
development potential of a market economy in any country, an important production
segment of the economy.
Summing up, it should be noted that increasing competitiveness in the transport
and logistics sector is always a set of measures, including the development of the
material and technical base of the transport system, and the improvement of
technologies with a regulatory and legal framework, as well as the development of
human potential. An effective tool in this regard can be the adoption of a state
strategy for the development of transport logistics based on positive international
experience.
The modern transport infrastructure providing the main flows of international
trade is developing on the basis of the formation of transport corridors and transport
hubs with terminals located in them. All this plays a direct role in the development of
the country's transport infrastructure.
The New Silk Road, or actually the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), is a Chinese
concept aimed at facilitating international trade between China, Europe and Africa as
well as building a new international economic order and security system. More than

15
60 countries belonging to various economic groupings with different levels of
economic development and economic openness have been involved in the BRI. Many
branches of the BRI run through the countries belonging to the Eurasian Economic
Union (EAEU). This is mainly the Trans Siberian corridor, being the northern branch
of the Route, which is being developed in the most dynamic way and is the most
exploited among all railway connections between China and Europe. In theory, the
EAEU and its customs union between Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia should allow
the easy transit of goods between Europe and Asia.
From China’s perspective, the rail branch of the BRI is mainly an initiative
aimed at making the western and north western provinces of the country more
dynamic. In the case of the countries of the EAEU, the land branch of the BRI could
become the important driving factor of their economic development they need so
much. Experts from the Eurasian Development Bank underline that for the EAEU
countries, the BRI is going to become a solution to logistics and transport problems,
mainly in the area of landlocked regions, such as the Russian Urals, Siberia and all of
Central Asia. The territorial scope of the Belt and Road Initiative is the largest among
indicated integration initiatives and currently covers about 60 countries, including the
countries belonging to the Eurasian Economic Union and the European Union. By
contrast, the institutional architecture of the BRI is incomparably smaller than the EU
or even the EAEU. A challenge for all three integration initiatives is to create a
harmonious and stable relationship among themselves [14].
The article Building a Common Eurasian Infrastructure: Agenda for the
Eurasian Economic Union examines the development trends of the transport
infrastructure of Eurasia in the context of the economic and political integration of
the countries of this continent. The leading states of the Asia-Pacific Region (APR)
came up with proposals for large-scale infrastructure projects in the Eurasian space
after the financial crisis of 2008-2009. Russia is extremely interested in integrating
into these initiatives, but it faces a number of difficulties. Some of them are related to
the specifics of the regulation of transport issues within the Eurasian Economic
Union. The article analyzes the current dialogue between Russia on infrastructure

16
development with the APR countries, including the initiative to coordinate the
Eurasian Economic Union and the Silk Road Economic Belt. The authors consider
the main Eurasian infrastructure projects of interest for the integrated development of
the EAEU infrastructure, as well as the main challenges and opportunities that arise
for Russia in the framework of interaction between the EAEU and the Asia-Pacific
countries in the field of infrastructure [16]. The authors conclude that Russia's
integration into Eurasian transport and logistics initiatives requires aligning the
transport agenda with trade and investment regulations. Such coordination
presupposes close cooperation with the Eurasian Economic Commission, and in the
future, even the transfer of competences related to the development of the EAEU
infrastructure agenda to the supranational level.
BRICS activities are an important element of the leadership of emerging
market economies and their mutual cooperation in global economic governance. The
Forum's role in the infrastructure action agenda is particularly important given that
most of the growth in infrastructure demand will come from its member countries.
China alone spends more on infrastructure than the countries of North America and
Western Europe combined. The BRICS countries together provide about half of the
world's infrastructure investments. The BRICS Forum gives additional impetus to
infrastructure activities both through its own work, in which infrastructure issues
occupy an important place, and through active expression of positions in the G20 and
other multilateral forums [19].
The analysis carried out in the Investimentos em infraestrutura de transportes e
desigualdades regionais no Brasil: Uma análise dos impactos do Programa de
Aceleração do Crescimento (PAC) has characterized the impact of investments in
infrastructure, in particular in transport, on the economic growth of Brazilian states in
the recent period (24 years) and thus assess the potential of this investment. to reduce
regional inequality. In this context, the impact of the current infrastructure investment
model on the dynamics of the Brazilian region was assessed, taking into account the
investments made by the federal and state governments under the PAC. The study
examined the following hypotheses: (i) investment in infrastructure contributes to the

17
economic growth of the Brazilian states; (ii) infrastructure investments made under
the PAC have contributed to an increase in the economic growth of Brazilian states,
(iii) as well as change the dispersion of economic growth between states in favor of
countries with lower GDP, and in such a way as to reduce regional inequality [12].
Brazil's recent transport infrastructure investment model can be characterized as still
characterized by “concentration in areas of economic growth” with an emphasis on
areas showing “spontaneous growth”. Taking into account the volume of economic
activity, as well as the high and stable level of regional concentration of productive
activity in Brazil, it can be argued that infrastructure policy for investment in
transport should already have adopted a different model, that is, be oriented towards
“promoting development in stagnant regions”. At present, the Brazilian transport
infrastructure investment model can be considered to be in a transition zone between
the two, as investment did not contribute to reducing regional inequality, but it also
did not increase it.
As can be seen from the analysis, many studies focus on FDI and technologies
that affect the development of transport infrastructure, logistics and economic
relations of countries. However, in addition to this, the importance of internal factors
that affect each country individually cannot be ruled out - income of the population,
quality and length of routes, population, labor, and the like - without which it is
impossible to put plans for the development of transport infrastructure into action.
Many analysts draw conclusions only on a comparative analysis of qualitative
characteristics, relying only on previous studies. There is a big gap in these studies
specifically for the BRICS countries, since many studies are limited either to one
country for more detailed consideration, and most often these are developed
countries, or a sample of countries in Europe, Asia, or are limited to one type of
transport, and not the structure as a whole. In my case, the most effective approach
would be to fill the research gap using the panel data structure, the fixed effect model,
a comparative analysis of the current state and factors affecting the development and
construction of the transport infrastructure of the BRICS countries. In addition, one
cannot fail to note the impact of the transport sector on the environment. These

18
results will complement the existing literature on the determinants of countries'
transport infrastructure and possible development paths.

1.3 The state of transport infrastructure at the present stage

At the moment, the BRICS countries are not a classical integration grouping
(unlike the countries of the European Union (EU) or the Eurasian Economic Union
(EAEU)). In particular, on the territory of the countries belonging to the BRICS
group, there is no unified system of customs regulation, a single currency, etc., and
different terms are used in publications for the states designated by the BRICS
abbreviation (for example, "union", "bloc", "Club", etc.). The desire of the countries
to unite is conditioned by the desire to get the opportunity to act more actively in the
world arena and to more effectively solve a number of economic problems.
The industrial development and cooperation of the BRICS countries is
impossible without adequate transport infrastructure. As the processes of
globalization intensify and expand, the importance of the transport complex in the
development of the economies of countries is steadily increasing.
At the same time, a characteristic feature of the transport infrastructure in
recent years has become its economic crisis due to the country's transport
dependence, physical and moral deterioration of the material and technical base,
disparities and irregularities in the placement and development of the limited
investment allocated, the lack of a market mechanism of functioning and
management. The transport infrastructure, being an important factor in bringing the
country's economy out of the economic crisis, due to the insufficient level of
development and location, has actually become a constraining factor in the
development of the economy. Within any region, it must guarantee the necessary
conditions for the functioning and development of the main industries and ensure the
most efficient use of economic and production potential. Each country should have
such a transport infrastructure that would fully satisfy the demand of a given territory
for transport services and be accessible to the majority of the population.

19
 If we compare the situation in developed and developing countries, the former
undoubtedly have a more extensive transport and infrastructure network per unit area
or per inhabitant. The objects included in it are constantly being modernized and
reconstructed, for which the latest equipment, technologies and materials are used.
Therefore, in general, the infrastructure of developed countries corresponds to the
world level. However, in terms of the latest standards of service, security, control and
information support, its quality in many respects is inferior to the transport
infrastructure of developing economies.
In 2019, the total nominal GDP of the BRICS countries amounted to USD 20.8
trillion, which in value terms is 24% of the global volume. The highest rates of GDP
growth in annual terms for 2015–2019 were demonstrated by Russia and Brazil,
which can be seen in Figure 1.

Figure 1- GDP growth rate of the BRICS countries, in% of the previous year,
2015–2021 [9]
Analysis of the dynamics of GDP and indicators of the development of the
transport sector makes it possible to trace the existence of a relationship between
economic growth and the development of the country's transport industry. The
performance of transport infrastructure depends on the types of performance
measurements. The development of a methodology for measuring efficiency remains

20
very important for national economic development. It is necessary to develop a
system for measuring and evaluating the overall indicators of transport infrastructure
and economic growth, which should be measured by the system, which my work can
contribute to.
Trade of the BRICS countries is free from sanctions and moves under the
influence of a rational logic of mutual benefit due to the adopted framework
agreements at the political level. The trade structure in the BRICS reflects the
country's advantages. The growth of trade between China with Russia and Brazil
after 2014 is especially noticeable in the context of the expansion of sanctions and
trade conflicts. However, not all BRICS countries have a well-developed transport
infrastructure. The most developed transport infrastructure in China and Russia,
significantly inferior to Brazil and India [44]. It should be noted that transport, being
one of the most capital-intensive sectors of the economy, requires large long-term
investments for its development. The South African republic is experiencing the
largest inflow of investments. The increase in the inflow of investments in the BRICS
countries is directly related to the transport infrastructure. The most difficult situation
is in Brazil. Underdeveloped infrastructure is a brake on business development in
Brazil. The situation is especially difficult in terms of the quality of roads and air
transport infrastructure. Brazil has the lowest percentage of paved roads among the
BRICS countries - only 13.5% of all roads.
For a reliable assessment of the situation, it is necessary to briefly consider the
main aspects of the development of the transport sector in the BRICS countries
separately.
Brazil. Considering that Brazil is a rather large country, it needs a developed
transport system. Today, Brazil's transport is actively developing. The economy of
the republic is growing rapidly, the volume of export of products is increasing, and
therefore the state is more and more in need of the development of transport
infrastructure. The development of transport infrastructure differs significantly
depending on the region. Most of the population of the state lives in the east, closer to
the shores of the Atlantic Ocean and in the central part of the country. Accordingly,

21
the transport network in these parts of the state is denser. Most of the railways and
highways are located in the east and center. While in the west, in the region of the
Amazon River basin, the population density is not large and therefore the transport
network is also not very dense.
The main mode of transport is road. The leading place in the structure of
transportation belongs to him. The transport network covers only the eastern regions
of the country. The main transport artery is the Transamazonskoe highway, which
connects the mining areas with the most developed part of the country. The length of
highways is 1.98 million km. The car plays a leading role in the transport of goods
and passengers in Brazil. The total length of the Brazilian road network is 1.5 million
km, of which about 180 thousand km. - highways with asphalt pavement. The road
system is relatively ramified, but its capacity is low due to the high wear and tear of
the roadway, congestion of many sections, a limited number of high-speed highways
with improved coverage and the presence of a significant number of unpaved roads
(especially in remote areas of the inner states countries). The main scope of work in
the sector is currently focused on the reconstruction of existing highways. An
important object of transport infrastructure is the Rio-Branco-Assiz-Brasil highway
being built, which, after completion of the work, will connect the western regions of
Brazil (the state of Acri) with Bolivia [45].
As can be seen from Figure 2, the situation before the pandemic was
encouraging - GDP from transport increased for several years in a row, but in 2020
the corona virus severely shook the country's economy, which could not but affect
transport. However, one can also notice that Brazil is recovering quickly and with
huge strides in 2021 is returning its achievements.

22
 Figure 2- Dynamics of GDP from Transport in Brazil, BRL - million [32]

Currently, seaports have been built in 15 cities of Brazil: Fortaleza, Porto

Alegre, Ilheus, Imbituba, Paranagua, Recife, Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande, Salvador,
Santos, São Francisco do Sul, San -Sebastian, Vitoria, Itajai and Natal. The most
important direction of the government's road policy is the reconstruction of existing
highways, as well as the prospects for new road construction associated with the idea
of "transport integration from the Atlantic to the Pacific."
The Brazilian Ministry of Infrastructure has published a list of current
investment projects for 2019-2022, which covers the construction of such large
facilities as airports, seaports, roads and railways. 
According to the Ministry's estimates, the total cost of all projects in the field
of transport infrastructure is about USD 45.84 billion. [31].
Russia. The Russian Federation is the largest state in the world. Its area
exceeds 17 million km2, and the distance between the extreme geographic points is
8230 km. Naturally, in such a huge country, transport plays a colossal role. Only
thanks to him it becomes possible to move goods, transport passengers.
Railway transport is historically the most developed. The vast majority of
Russia's railway assets are held by Russian Railways, a vertically integrated company
that owns 99% of the railway track and industry infrastructure. JSC "Russian
Railways" is included in the list of the world's largest transport companies
This year, the level of attention of the country's leadership to the development
of transport infrastructure is unprecedentedly high. According to the May Decree of

23
the President of the Russian Federation, which defines the national development
goals of the country for a six-year period, the Government will, on the basis of a
spatial development strategy, develop and approve a comprehensive plan for the
modernization and expansion of the trunk infrastructure. The task of increasing the
level of economic connectivity of the territory of our country is through the
development of transport communications between regional administrative centers -
the reconstruction of airports, the creation of high-speed rail links, an increase in the
throughput of inland waterways, the construction of road infrastructure and the
introduction of intelligent transport systems [34].
The dynamics of GDP from transport in Russia over the past 10 years, which is
shown in Figure 3, allows us to note a stable level from 2014 to 2020. In the last year,
there has been a slight decline, which is associated with losses due to the pandemic.

Figure 3 - Dynamics of GDP from Transport in Russia, bln USD [32]

In the context of federal districts for the year, the average value of the transport
index decreased by 0.01 in the North Caucasus, 3.01 and the Urals, 3.53 and
remained stable in the Volga region 2.93. In all other districts, it grew, and most
strongly in the Southern Federal District (by 0.03 to 3.12) and in the Far East (by 0.04
to 2.94). The latter allowed the Far East2.94 to slightly overtake the Volga region2.93
in terms of the average transport infrastructure development index, but the gap is only
0.01 and can be “compensated” within a year [21]. Figure 4 reflects this data.
24
 Figure 4 - Index of transport infrastructure development by federal districts [37]

It is obvious that a pandemic and crisis can negatively affect the launch of
transport projects - as a rule, in difficult times, investors and authorities tend to put
capital-intensive industry projects on pause. On the contrary, they can help stimulate
the economy and bring it to a new level. Highways remained the most developed of
the three main transport sectors. However, the national average sub-index for them
for the year decreased by 0.04 (to 4.97). We associate this with the fact that the work
carried out within the framework of the national project "Safe and High-Quality
Roads" and the comprehensive plan is not enough for the estimated indicators of the
subjects to change significantly.
The average sub-index for railways (1.10) remained stable, while for air
infrastructure it rose 0.14 to 1.34. The latter was influenced by the record for
passenger traffic at Russian airports set in 2019 (220.9 million people).
India. All types of public transport have been created and are successfully
operating in India. At the same time, maritime transport is of paramount importance
for the country's economy. The ports serve more than 95% in terms of value and 70%
in terms of the volume of foreign trade cargo flows. India is a major maritime power.
Almost 90% of all seaports of South Asian states are located on its coast. At the same
time, not a single port of the country is among the 20 largest ports in the world.

25
 The main program document for the infrastructural development of the
country's seaports is the National Perspective Plan Sagarmala, Sagarmala (Fig. 5)
with a horizon of implementation until 2035. The long-term plan focuses on the
development of seaports to form powerful economic and industrial centers on the
coast of the country. The Sagarmala program plans to implement over 400 large
infrastructure projects with a total value of about $ 120 billion. [38].
The main program activities are aimed at overcoming infrastructural
constraints and changing the inefficient logistics model used in the Indian economy.
So far, significant volumes of raw materials imported through seaports are
transported to remote industrial facilities in the interior regions of the country. In
turn, finished products are sent to ports for export.

Figure 5- Development of coastal economic zones under the Sagarmala

program [38]
Traditionally, cargo transportation between Russia and India is carried out
through ports in the Baltic and Azov-Black Sea basins. However, recently, Indian
business has begun to cooperate with Russian companies in the Far East, so there is a
need to organize regular communications between Russian Far Eastern and Indian
seaports. For example, a sea route from Indian Chennai to Vladivostok is being
worked out [30].
26
 In recent years, the influence of geopolitical factors on the development of
India's transport infrastructure has been increasing. A tense situation remains along
its land borders, Chinese business is beginning to dominate Asian markets, in the
countries of the Indian Ocean basin, Beijing is creating a dual-use transport
infrastructure, so the Indian leadership is interested in allies to resist the Chinese
expansion in the Indo-Pacific region. However, India's geopolitical initiatives will
increase its dependence on external global players who, in their own interests, may
try to drag it into an armed conflict with neighboring states.
China. China has a territory of 9.6 million square kilometers (3rd place in the
world) and a population of 1.34 billion people (1st place in the world) [35]. The
People's Republic of China is the most successful country among the "states of new
industrialization" and one of the world leaders in investment in infrastructure
projects. The distribution of investments in various sectors of infrastructure in China
is determined by the urgent tasks facing the country's economy. The galloping
economic growth requires an efficient logistics system capable of providing prompt
and inexpensive services for the transportation of a large volume of both freight and
passenger flows.
At present, the People's Republic of China is making colossal investments in
transport infrastructure. By the beginning of the 2020s, the growing network of high-
speed railways is capable of reformatting the structure of China's settlement and
connecting most of Chinese cities into 6 super-large megalopolises. The total
investment in China's transport infrastructure under the five-year plan (2016-2020)
will amount to about 15 trillion yuan ($ 2.18 trillion).
The development of the transport and logistics sector of the economy is one of the
priorities of the twelfth five-year plan for the development of the country's economy.
The objectives of the 12th plan will have an impact on China's transport sector in
several ways:
- the move from an export orientation to an orientation towards domestic
consumption will ease the load on export transport terminals in the eastern provinces,
but will increase the load on the domestic transport network;

27
 - the designated targets for reducing CO2 emissions and protecting the
environment will influence the investment policy of transport companies. The
development of cleaner rail and waterways will be one way to tackle environmental
problems and help limit the exponential increase in the load on the road network;
- the transition to a more high-tech and service-oriented economy will pose
significant challenges for road and logistics infrastructure. The development of IT
technologies, management technologies and more complex and integrated logistics
solutions will become a key means of solving infrastructure problems;
- the White Paper notes that at the end of 2019, the total length of operating
railway lines in the country amounted to 139 thousand kilometers, including over 35
thousand kilometers of high-speed railways. According to this indicator, China ranks
first in the world. The total length of highways is 5 million 13 thousand kilometers.
In particular, China has risen to first place in the world in terms of the length of
expressways - 150 thousand kilometers. Moreover, the country is leading in terms of
the length of operated bridges and tunnels and in terms of cargo turnover and
containers in ports.
At the same time, the PRC is stepping up international transport cooperation
within the framework of the "One Belt and One Road", stimulating joint development
against the background of improving infrastructure conditions. With the support of
Chinese companies, railways were built between Mombasa and Nairobi (in Kenya)
and between Ethiopia and Djibouti. Freight trains China-Europe connect 92 cities
from 21 European countries. Together with local partners, Chinese companies have
implemented a number of projects for the construction of highways and bridges. For
example, the other day a high-speed road was put into operation in Pakistan,
connecting the cities of Sukkur and Multan, which reduces travel time from 11 to 4
hours. Chinese companies are also actively involved in the construction and
management of ports in Greece, Pakistan and other countries [33].
China proposed the concept of a new Pan-Eurasian transport system - the New
Silk Road, through which passengers and goods will be transported to Europe from
China. This project is planned to be implemented in cooperation with Russia,

28
Kazakhstan and other countries. The idea is based on the Great Silk Road, which was
one of the most important trade routes in antiquity. The new trade route will be a
similar trade artery that will connect the center of Eurasia and Europe (it is assumed
that it will end in London). This will significantly enhance the economic development
of both China itself and the countries through which this road will pass, and new
sales markets for Chinese goods will appear. The Chinese represent this project as a
way to transform the entire trade and economic model of Eurasia and call it "one belt
- one road." In the future, many infrastructure projects will be united together, and the
new system of transport corridors will cover not only Europe and Asia, but also
Africa, America and even Australia and Indonesia. To implement such an ambitious
project, it is necessary to use a wide variety of transport: roads and railways, sea and
air routes, as well as pipelines, power lines, which will entail the development of the
corresponding infrastructure [16].
South Africa. The dynamism of Africa's development opens up broad prospects
for Russian investment, but there are several large-scale problems. In Africa, 19% of
all goods and services travel by road. If an accident occurs, then this method of
movement turns out to be difficult. 75% of highways are connected, but there is no
common road network, there is no infrastructure that provides intermodal transport.
There are regional rail networks, but no transcontinental [26].
There is a characteristic feature of the development of African megalopolises:
with their growth by leaps and bounds, the transport infrastructure in them remains
unsatisfactory. At the same time, in this decade, high-speed urban transport systems
were built in a number of large cities in African Arab countries, as well as in South
Africa. Currently, there are several developing projects in this direction, the largest of
which are the metro in the Nigerian largest city of Lagos and the high-speed tram in
the capital of Nigeria, Abuja.
Africa is the most growing market for goods and services on the planet ",
therefore MNEs of the leading countries of the world" are looking for ways to get the
most favorable conditions for entering and gaining a foothold in this rapidly

29
developing market, and not only with their goods and services, but also with
proposals for the extraction of minerals [2].
Here is the densest network of railways and highways in Africa, the length of
roads is 276 thousand km, railways - 20 thousand km, almost half of them are
electrified. All railways and almost all highways belong to the state.
The main interdistrict mode of transport in South Africa is railways. The main
thoroughfares run from the port cities to the industrial areas of the Transvaal,
centered in Johannesburg. South Africa is also connected with neighboring countries
by several railway lines. One of them leads to Namibia, the other - to Botswana and
Zimbabwe, the third connects Johannesburg with the port of Maputo.
Developed infrastructure is an important factor in the economic development
of countries and in increasing their competitiveness in the world market. Well-
developed infrastructure defines the centers of economic activity, as well as sectors
for its development. The increase in the inflow of investments in the BRICS countries
is directly related to the transport infrastructure. The most difficult situation is in
Brazil. Underdeveloped infrastructure is a brake on business development in Brazil.
The situation is especially difficult in terms of the quality of roads and air transport
infrastructure. Brazil has the lowest percentage of paved roads among the BRICS
countries - only 13.5% of all roads. The BRICS countries are actively cooperating in
the field of investments in the development of transport infrastructure. This is
especially true in relation to Brazil. Due to the influence of American and Western
European auto-mobile campaigns in the country, the development of the railway
network was artificially slowed down for a long time, which led to their deplorable
state at the present stage. This circumstance is important for Russia to start investing
in this area. Investing in railways can lead to their partial privatization. This is the
path taken by China, which concludes contracts and invests in the construction of
railways, and also tries to privatize them. In addition, air transportation is a promising
area for investment. In Brazil, there are still no flights to India and China. With the
establishment of active cooperation between countries and the emergence of direct

30
flights, this contributes to a significant increase in the tourist flow and also to an
increase in business contacts.
Taking into account such a spread in the level of development and size of the
studied countries, it is worth paying attention to the development of transport
infrastructure in each of the BRICS countries. Figure 6 shows the dynamics of
investments in the transport sector for each of the countries. As you can see, after the
peak values of investments in all cases, there is a decrease in the volume of
investment funds. This is because where there is a high level of accessibility and
where transport networks are already ramified, further investment usually results in
minor improvements. This means that the economic impact of transport investment
tends to be significant when infrastructure was previously unavailable, and tend to be
marginal when an extensive network is already in place. Thus, additional investments
may have limited impact beyond convenience.

31
 Figure 6 - Dynamics of changes in the volume of investments in the transport
infrastructure of countries1

Transport links together the factors of production in a complex network of

relationships between producers and consumers. The result is usually a more efficient
division of production through the use of comparative geographic advantages and the
means to achieve economies of scale and scope. Thus, the productivity of the use of
space, capital and labor force is increased due to the efficiency of distribution and
personal mobility. Economic growth is increasingly linked to the development of
1
Made by author based on: [48,49,50].
32
transport, namely infrastructure, as well as management knowledge, which is crucial
for logistics. Thus, while transportation is an infrastructure-intensive activity, hard
assets must be supported by many soft assets, namely labor, management and
information systems.
The relationship between transport and economic development is difficult to
establish formally and has been discussed for many years. In some circumstances,
investment in transport appears to be a catalyst for economic growth, while in others,
economic growth puts pressure on existing transport infrastructure and encourages
additional investment. Transport markets and their associated transport infrastructure
networks are key driving forces in promoting more balanced and sustainable
development, especially by improving accessibility and opportunities for less
developed regions or socially disadvantaged populations.

2 Analysis of transport infrastructure of the BRICS countries

2.1 Methods and hypotheses of researching factors of influence on the

development of transport infrastructure

Among regional and corridor studies, links are usually found between the
benefits of highways and usage patterns, but the net effect of productivity is often not
measured. Such studies tend to focus more on overall job and income attraction rates
than on measuring net productivity effects. One of the important directions in the

33
coming years is the search for more effective ways of creating and collecting data
necessary for conducting useful research [20]. Since the important effects go beyond
the results of the transport system itself, many types of data are needed. These data
include characteristics of the transport system, employment, company-level
characteristics, information on transport financing, trade flows, and related
characteristics of the regions included in the economic analysis. In addition, the data
should be both cross-sectional and time-series in order to increase the reliability of
the estimates.
The characteristics of the transport infrastructure are carried out according to
an adapted methodology based on the availability of world statistics and analysis of
information on the development in the countries of the transport sector.
In my thesis, I check the relationship between the Development of the transport
sector, expressed in attracted investments (INV) annually and such factors as Freight
turnover (GT), Passenger turnover (PT), GDP per capita (CGDP), Fuel price (Pprc),
Labor force per sector (Wfrc), Country area (Area), Urban population (UPop). Since
the development levels of road (Rd), rail (R) and air (A) transport are different in the
BRICS countries, I am going to analyze them separately in order to exclude a high
measure of multicollinearity between the independent variables in the multiple
regression model. In addition, all data must be logarithmized in order to exclude a
large variation in units of calculation. Thus, I use three basic models (1), (2) and (3)
for analysis, where the indices i and t represent country and time, respectively:
Rail: lINVit = α + β1lRGTit + β2lRPTit + β3lAreait+ (
β4lUPopit + β5lWfrcit + β6CGDPit + β7lpprit + ξit 1)
Air: lINVit = α + β1lAGTit + β2lAPTit + (
β3lAreait+ β4lUPopit + β5lWfrcit + β6CGDPit+ 2)
β7lpprit + ξit
Road: lINVit = α + β1lRdGTit + β2lRdPTit + (
β3lAreait+ β4lUPopit + β5lWfrcit + β6CGDPit+ 3)
β7lpprit + ξit

Where lINV- logarithm of the volume of investments in the transport sector of

34
 the countries;
lAGT/lRGT/lRdGT- logarithm of cargo transportation by air/rail/road;
lAPT/ lRPT/ lRdPT- logarithm of passenger transportation by air/rail/road;
lCGDP- logarithm of GDP per capita;
lppr -logarithm of gasoline price;
lWfrc - logarithm of transport workers;
lArea - logarithm of country area;
lUpop - logarithm of Urban population;
the indices i and t represent country and time.
The empirical data for the analysis are taken from the annual joint statistical report
of the BRICS countries - Summary of Transport on BRICS Countries, Knoema,
WDB, EconomicData and other. Descriptions of variables and their meanings are
presented in Table 1. The database collected on the basis of sources is presented in
Appendix D.
Table 1 -Variables for analysis2
Variable Description Unit of measurement Source
Dependent variable
INV The volume of USD OECD Statistics
investments in the
transport sector of the
countries

Table 1 End
Variable Description Unit of measurement Source
Independent variables
AGT Cargo transportation million ton-km KNOEMA
by air OECD Statistics
APT Passenger Passenger-kilometers, KNOEMA
transportation by air Millions
RGT Cargo transportation million ton-km OECD Statistics
by railway transport
RPT Railway passenger Passenger-kilometers, KNOEMA
transportation Millions
RdGT Cargo transportation million ton-km KNOEMA, EconomicData
by road
RdPT Passenger Passenger-kilometers, KNOEMA
transportation by road Millions EconomicData
CGDP GDP per capita USD Trading Economics
Pprc Gasoline price USD KNOEMA
2
Made by author based on: [46, 47, 48, 49]

35
 InvestFuture
Wfrc Transport workers human KNOEMA, OECD Statistics
Area Country area Km ^ 2 Wikipedia
UPop Urban population People KNOEMA, EconomicData
lRT
lAT
lRdT
lRP
lAP
lRdP
lINV logarithms of the corresponding variables
lCGDP
lPprc
lWfrc
lUpop
lArea
Based on the data, we take Investments in the transport sector in countries as
an explainable variable. This is due to the fact that economic growth is impossible
without investment. It is injections into the economy that create a powerful impetus
for moving forward and for high-quality development. In this regard, it makes sense
to consider investment and economic growth in a single indivisible bundle. The
research period is 2015-2020.
Panel regression analysis is used to study impacts in aggregate for all BRICS
countries. Panel data methods such as panel least squares, panel least squares with
fixed effects and panel least squares with random effects are used to study the
collective impact by bringing together all the BRICS countries.
The study is based on the hypothesis that Passenger turnover and Freight
turnover by type of transport, a large number of workers in the sector, urbanization of
the country's population and growth in the population's income have a positive effect
on the investment attractiveness of the transport sector, which entails its renewal,
improvement and development. In addition, the increase in the cost of transport and
logistics services, as exemplified by fuel prices, is inversely proportional to the
volume of investments.

2.2 Descriptive statistics of transport infrastructure development indicators

The relationship between the transport infrastructure and the development of

countries in this work is investigated according to the following parameters:
36
 Annual freight turnover (air, rail, automobile). Globally, with the help of
freight turnover, trade relations between states are assessed, and in the transport
industry, the freight turnover indicator determines the throughput of individual
objects. The increase in international cargo turnover means the development of the
economy and trade. The economic crisis leads to a decrease in the volume of
transported goods. The instability of freight turnover between districts or regions
indicates difficulties in the transport system, in the work of firms, as well as weak
interregional economic ties. The total assessment of cargo transportation for each
type of transport makes it possible to determine how developed the industry is and its
need for updating and building new communication lines. Another general
assessment makes it possible to identify the level of significance of a certain area in
the entire cargo turnover.
Annual passenger traffic (air, rail, auto-mobile transport). The indicator of the
reflection of the volume of passenger traffic is calculated as the product of the
number of passengers by the distance of transportation for each type of transport.
Measured in pass-fat-kilometers. It is more indicative for assessing the efficiency of
this or that transport than the number of passengers carried, but it does not give an
understanding of the speed of this transportation and its profitability.
Labor force in the industry. The labor force is the people involved in the
infrastructure, on the one hand, and the totality of human abilities, on the other. In a
market economy, this is a commodity. The quality of the product “labor force” shows
the degree of efficiency of the transport sector, how competitive it is in this respect.
The price of gasoline. The cost of delivery from any transport and logistics
company is formed from a number of related factors. But the most important
parameter that regulates the bulk of the total amount for a service is the price of fuel,
since these costs make up a significant part of the cost of transportation. It is this
tariff that has a significant impact on the long distance delivery business.
The size of the urban population. It is not just passengers and cargo owners
who benefit from transport projects. For example, the acceleration of commuter
traffic and the involvement of new cities in the boundaries of agglomerations has an

37
economic effect for companies by expanding the labor market and sales, and all
employees of the company, including those who live in the city center and do not
make commuter trips, benefit from this. If a remote area of a city or region has
become “closer” to the center, where “life is in full swing,” this leads to an increase
in the involvement of the population in the economy, creates new incentives for
personal development, for example, due to the arrival there of new residents with a
higher level of education and consumer standards. Thus, not only the direct users of
the infrastructure, but also the organizations in which they work and the settlements
in which they live, receive indirect effects at the stage of operation. The urban
population is more mobile and requires rapid movement from one point of both the
country and the world to another.
Country area. This indicator is important for my analysis, since the size of the
country directly affects the quality and equipment of transport routes. In countries
with a large territory (Russia), the role of railway transport is relatively large, and in
countries with short distances and a well-developed territory, road transport (India)
dominates. It is logical to assume that a large area of the country requires large
investments to implement high-quality and efficient projects.
GDP per capita. This indicator is the most important macroeconomic indicator
of development.
The volume of private and public investment in the transport sector. One of the
main factors supporting the economic growth of any country is the development of
transport infrastructure. Investments play a decisive role in this process. While an
initial investment in infrastructure tends to have a high return on investment because
it provides a whole new set of mobility options, the more the system is developed, the
more likely the additional investment will reduce the return. At some point, the
marginal yield may be close to zero or even negative. A common misconception is
that additional investment in transport will have the same multiplier effect than the
initial investment, which can lead to inefficient capital allocation. The indicator of the
volume of investments in infrastructure is often used to assess the long-term

38
prospects for the development of the economy. However, it should be borne in mind
that investments in infrastructure are themselves a source of economic growth.

Table 3 - The main descriptive statistics3

Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max
RGT 30 1.51e+08 9.79e+07 4.08e+07 3.25e+08
AGT 30 8.01e+08 8.25e+08 1.17e+08 2.55e+09
RdGT 30 6.05e+07 9.65e+07 1407800 2.64e+08
RKm 30 54920.03 25367.36 20953 85788
Table 3 End
Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max
RdPT 30 4.27e+07 6.00e+07 1.06e+07 1.85e+08
RPT 30 1.85e+07 1.88e+07 1.01e+07 9.03e+07
APT 30 1.74e+08 1.86e+08 1.70e+07 6.60e+08
Pop 30 6.36e+08 6.24e+08 5.54e+07 1.44e+09
Area 30 7950000 5650911 1220000 1.71e+07
Inv 30 1.35e+11 2.60e+11 -7375000 7.64e+11
TGDP 30 5.05e+10 1.23e+11 1.48e+07 6.59e+11
CGDP 30 7174.767 3234.674 1606 11601
WF 30 2924398 5596477 -1.83e+07 6990081
NRD 30 54373.7 48907.85 16981 150785
UPop 30 2.88e+08 2.71e+08 3.51e+07 8.43e+08
Pprc 30 1.138667 .2834119 .59 1.7

Table 3 shows the main descriptive statistics: number of observations (obs),

mean (mean), standard deviation (Std. Dev.), Maximum (max) and minimum (min)
of the indicated variables. The collected data show a wide variation in these values,
but there are no gaps in the data, they are strictly balanced.

2.3 Empirical study of the factors of influence of the development of transport

infrastructure of the BRICS countries

In the course of the work, a regression model was built for each
specification and a series of standard quality tests of the evaluated models, the VIF
test for checking multicollinearity, and the Breusch-Pagan test for heteroscedasticity
were carried out. The results are presented in Table 4.5. Another problem in
evaluating panel data can be the presence of non-stationary data in the data used.
However, in this case, with a small selection of panels (N <25, T <25), this problem

3
Made by author based on the analysis results

39
 is not particularly important. The VIF test showed the problem of multicollinearity in
the models and as a result, some of the variables in each of the models had to be
removed. As a result, we got the following final models (4), (5) and (6):

RAIL: lINVit = α + β1lRGTit + β2lAreait+ β3lUPopit + (4)

β4lWfrcit + β5lpprit + ξit
ROAD: lINVit = α + β1lRdPTit + β2lUPopit + β3CGDPit+ (5)
β4lWfrcit + β5lpprit + ξit
AIR: lINVit = α + + β1lAPTit + β2lUPopit + β3lWfrcit + (6)
β4CGDPit + ξit

Table 4 - Multicollinearity taking into account railway, air and road transport4
Rail AIR ROAD
Variable VIF 1/VIF Variable VIF 1/VIF Variable VIF 1/VIF
lArea 3.14 0.318250 lAPT 3.85 0.259511 lUPop 3.52 0.283710
lppr 2.39 0.418935 lUPop 3.49 0.286803 lRdPT 2.33 0.429581
lWfrc 2.03 0.492676 lArea 2.10 0.475867 lppr 1.69 0.592713
lUPop 1.53 0.655181 lWfrc 2.03 0.492039 lWfrc 1.66 0.603949
lRGT 1.21 0.829374 lCGDP 1.61 0.620686
Mean 2.06 2.87 2.16
VIF

For each of the specifications, a fixed effects model and a random effects model
were measured. Appendix B contains empirical results from the evaluated models.
For each of them, the values of the coefficients, standard errors and p-value are given,
which cuts off the probability that the coefficient is equal to zero. The results of
evaluating all models using the STATA program are presented in Appendix B.
To determine the most adequate model, the following tests were performed:
Wald test (comparison of a regression model with fixed effects and conventional end-
to-end regression regression), Breusch-Pagan test (comparison of a regression model
with random effects and conventional end-to-end regression regression), but
Hausman's test (comparison of regression models with random effects and fixed

4
Made by author based on the analysis results

40
 effects) was not useful. The test results in the statistic are reflected in Appendix C for
each of the three models.
Table 5 - Heteroscedasticity taking into account railway, air and road transport5
RAIL AIR ROAD
Breusch-Pagan / Breusch-Pagan / Breusch-Pagan /
Cook-Weisberg test for Cook-Weisberg test for Cook-Weisberg test for
heteroscedasticity heteroscedasticity heteroscedasticity
Ho: Constant Ho: Constant Ho: Constant
variance variance variance
Variables: fitted Variables: fitted Variables:
values of lINV values of lINV fitted values of lINV

chi2(1) = 0.51 chi2(1) = 4.09 chi2(1) =

Prob > chi2 = Prob > chi2 = 0.03
0.4731 0.0432 Prob > chi2 =
0.8706

To select from them the model that is most adequate for my data, it is
necessary to conduct a pairwise comparison of the estimated models:
- the regression model with fixed effects is comparable to end-to-end
regression (Wald test).
Wald's test tests the hypothesis that all individual effects are equal to zero.
STATA automatically checks this hypothesis at the same time as evaluating the model
with fixed effects and displays the result in the last row of table with fix model. Since
the p-level is <0.01, the main hypothesis is rejected. Thus, a regression model with
end-to-end regression is better suited to describe data than;
- the regression model with random effects is comparable to end-to-end
regression (Brousch-Pagan test).
Then I conducted the Brousch-Pagan test for the presence of a random
individual effect, the results are presented in. Since the p-level> 0.01, the main

5
Made by author based on the analysis results

41
hypothesis is confirmed. Thus, the end-to-end regression model describes our data
better than the random effect model;
- the Hausman test allows you to choose between FE and RE models.
Generally speaking, a random effect model occurs only if the random effect is
uncorrelated with repressors. This requirement is often violated; since the p-level is
<0.01, the main hypothesis is rejected. The results obtained allow us to conclude that
in our case the model with fixed individual effects is suitable. This was to be expected,
since specific countries were selected for the study, their composition did not change
from year to year.
Since the regression model with fixed effects turned out to be better than
others, the following conclusions can be drawn from the results of the analysis, which
are reflected in Table 6.
Table 6 - Results of empirical analysis of the BRICS countries in aggregate6
Specification Air Transport Road transport Railway transport
Results The significance and The significance and The significance
adequacy of the model adequacy of the model and adequacy of the
as a whole -89.76%. as a whole is 93.80%. model as a whole is
An increase in The growth of labor 92.64%.
passenger traffic by air and growth of GDP The growth of
and labor by 1 unit per capita increases freight traffic by
with a probability of the investment flow rail and labor force
95% and 99% times with a by 1 unit with a
increases investment in probability of 99% probability of 99%
the transport sector by respectively. An increases
0.23 and 0.24 times, increase in gasoline investment in the
respectively. The prices with a transport sector by
growth of probability of 99%
Table 6 End
Specification Air Transport Road transport Railway transport
Results GDP per capita reduces the volume of 1.12 and 0.30 times,
6
Made by author based on the analysis results

42
 increases the investments in respectively. The
investment flow times transport infrastructure rise in gasoline
with a probability of by 0.65 times. prices with a 95%
99% on 0.79 times. probability will
The significance of the decrease the volume
influence of other of investments by
factors in the model 0.56 times.
with fixed residuals has
not been proven.

Regression analysis was used to establish the relationship between the flow of
investment in the transport sector and factors affecting the development of transport
infrastructure. Also, the work analyzed the factors for each country separately, in
order to exclude the scatter of data due to the different level of development of the
countries included in the analysis. The results are presented in Table 7. These results
reflect a more complete picture of the development of the transport infrastructure of
the studied BRICS countries, which allows drawing specific conclusions and
developing recommendations in more detail in order to increase the investment flow
in the transport infrastructure of the countries, and as a result, the development of
economic trade relations both between them and with other countries that are not part
of this union. The table 6,7 shows the results of the models after tests for
multicollinearity and heteroscedasticity. The adequacy of the fitted model was
assessed based on the coefficient of determination. The model has the highest
coefficient of determination, the regression equation of which describes the
dependence of the factors of railway transport. The significance of the coefficients of
the regression equation was assessed by the Student's t-test, since P-value <0.001, the
regression coefficients are significant, but not all.

Table 7 - Analysis of each country7

Country Air Rail Road
S.Africa Variable Value Variable Value Variable Value

7
Made by author based on the analysis results

43
 lAGT 1.2211*** lWfrc .3284*** lWfrc .3212***
(.1146) (.1161) (.0304)
lWfrc .1989** lRGT 1.3169*** lRdPT 1.5975***
(.0762) (.2365) (0.4963)

lUPop .8441*** lUPop 1.2384*** lRdGT .0578**

(.1540) (.2341) (.0294)
Africa -4.9184*** Africa -3.0945*** Africa -4.4395***
(.5231) (.7594) (.1627)
R^2 0.9731 0.9336 0.9954
lAGT 1.2424*** lWfrc .5231*** lWfrc .6201***
(.2336) (.0974) (.08330
lWfrc .5078*** lRGT 2.1492*** lpprc -4.2047***
Brazil (.1119) (.3312) (.6918)
lUPop 1.6381*** lUPop 1.8634*** lRdPT 2.1113***
(.2152) (.1919) (.1695)
lpprc -2.4810*** lCGDP -.4734*
(.8877) (.2254)
Brazil 1.6102** Brazil 2.3024*** Brazil 1.8531***
(.5808) (.5823) (.4241)
R^2 0.9209 0.9321 0.9514
China lWfrc .5791*** lWfrc .3516*** lWfrc .6789***
(.0726) (.0557) (.1007)
lAPT 1.7977*** lCGDP -1.8824*** lRdGT .3068**
(.2891) (.1841) (.1273)
Lpprc -1.4409** lArea 2.2868*** lpprc -4.7914***
(.6862) (.1522) (.9161)
China 1.1681* lRGT .5567*** China 4.0947***
(.6148) (.1537) (.4819)
China 5.0538***
(.2582)
R^2 0.9631 0.9850 0.9237
India lWfrc .6331*** lWfrc .6012*** lWfrc .5972***
(..1166) (.1095) (.0925)
lAGT .5130** lRGT .9054*** lRdPT 1.1821***
(.2469) (.3077) (.2364)
lUPop 2.0252*** lUPop 2.0573*** lUPop 1.0339***
(.2681) (.2443) (.2921)
India -1.4775 India -1.4481** Lpprc -2.5043***
(.6031) (.7767)
India -.7861
(.5174)

Table 7 End
Country Air Rail Road
R^2 0.8970 0.9103 0.9440
Russia lWfrc .4872*** lWfrc .3781*** lWfrc .5282***
(.0763) (.0461) (.0734)
lAPT 2.0723*** lRGT 2.1502*** lRdPT 1.3368***
(.2111) (.1075) (.1431)

44
 lUPop .4539** lArea 3.5495*** lArea 1.4366***
(.2191) (.1289) (.2453)
Russia .8071** lCGDP -1.9611*** lpprc -2.7067***
(.3483) (.1388) (.7824)
Russia -5.5611*** Russia -2.2279***
(.2108) (.4717)
R^2 0.9651 0.9915 0.9673

Let's start with the R-squared statistic, or, as it is sometimes called, the
coefficient of determination. It shows how the conditional variance of the model
differs from the variance of the real values of Y. If this coefficient is close to 1, then
the conditional variance of the model is small enough and it is very likely that the
model describes the data well. If the R-squared coefficient is much less, for example,
less than 0.5, then, with a high degree of certainty, the model does not reflect the real
state of affairs. In my case, all models have a high coefficient value, which means
that the model can be used for reliable data interpretation.
According to the results of the analysis, it can be noted that for all countries the
importance of labor resources is high. The growth of qualified personnel in the
transport infrastructure of the country, regardless of the level of its development,
allows attracting more investments in the structure, as it is fundamental proof that the
developed planning methods and projects can be implemented. For countries such as
India, Brazil and South Africa, a characteristic feature of the growth of investment
flows is the urbanization of the population and the growth of its income. Transport
has a significant impact on the economy and development of the region, contributing
to the inflow of foreign currency into the country, the creation of new jobs, and the
improvement of infrastructure. In order to obtain maximum benefits from transport,
each state develops a policy in the transport sector, which is one of the types of socio-
economic policy of the state. The concentration of economic activity and
urbanization are an important spatial resource for global development.
Currently, the main goal of the socio-economic development of most countries
of the world and their regions is to improve the quality of life of the population.
Urbanization as a factor in the development of transport lies in the fact that not
finding satisfaction in work, a modern person has fewer and fewer opportunities for

45
good rest. Most of the population in developed countries lives in cities. Many
researchers and sociologists note that the urban lifestyle is characterized by stressful
situations, an accelerated pace of life, and a lack of contact with people. Therefore, it
is tourism that for many people is an opportunity to escape from the stressful life in
the city and temporarily return to nature in search of peace of mind and contacts with
people.
As a result of the analysis, it was not possible to assess the impact of road
traffic accidents, freight traffic by air and road transport, passenger traffic by railway
transport, etc. due to the high multi-collinearity of the data. Thus, not all hypotheses
about the influence of each factor on the growth or decline of investment flows in the
transport sector have been confirmed. Nevertheless, the results obtained reflect that
when taking into account air transport data, it is passenger traffic that predominates,
and not freight. At the same time, the opposite situation is typical for railway
transport. It would seem that an increase in fuel prices leads to an increase in
transport and logistics costs, is superimposed on value added, but its negative impact
on investments in road transport does not prevent an increase in the volume of
investments when interacting with air services. This may be due to the fact that the
rise in fuel prices provokes an increase in the cost of freight, which, in turn, leads to a
drop in profits. With a high degree of probability, transport companies will have to
increase tariffs for transportation, which will negatively affect the demand for road
freight transportation services. In addition, it is important that air transport requires a
lower capital investment. Unlike 1 km of a railway track, 30 times less money is
spent on 1 km of an air route.
In the process of increasing the material well-being of the population,
expanding cultural, business and scientific ties, the mobility of the population
increases, and this, in turn, necessitates high-speed travel - air transport. The results
also show that the larger the area of the country, the more is invested in the transport
sector. This makes sense, but remember that due to clustering and agglomeration,
some locations gain benefits that cannot be easily reversed through improved
availability. Transport can be a factor of concentration and dispersal, depending on

46
the context and level of development. Thus, less accessible regions do not necessarily
benefit from transport investment if they are included in a system of unequal
relations. Because transport infrastructure is a capital-intensive asset, it is particularly
vulnerable to misuse and disinvestment. The standard assumption is that transport
investments tend to generate more wealth than wealth-consuming investments such
as services.

2.4 Transport infrastructure and sustainable development: points of

contact

An issue of concern relates to the ability of the global economy to sustain

sustainable demographic, economic and resource consumption growth. Population
growth and rising living standards allow people to access a wide range of goods and
services.
However, it is generally accepted that sustainability fosters conditions that
benefit the environment, economy and society without compromising the well-being
of future generations. However, as history clearly shows, the conditions of future
societies will largely depend on the heritage of current societies in terms of resources
and the environment. All forms of assets (capital, real estate, infrastructure,
resources) transferred to the next generation must have at least equal value (utility)
per capita. The following three factors are important [27]:
- social justice. Refers to conditions that favor the allocation of resources among
the current generation based on comparative levels of productivity and the promotion
of equal opportunity. This means that individuals or organizations are free to follow
their choices and be rewarded for the risk they take and the effort they make. Social
justice is usually the most difficult element to define in the concept of sustainability.
It should not be confused with redistribution (or socialism), where part of the
population agrees or is forced to support another segment;
- cost-effectiveness. Refers to conditions that allow for a higher level of
economic efficiency in terms of the use of resources and labor. The focus is on

47
capabilities, competitiveness, manufacturing flexibility and the provision of goods
and services that meet market demand. In such circumstances, the factors of
production must be freely distributed and the markets open to trade;
- environmental responsibility. This includes a "footprint" that is less than the
ability of the environment to adapt. This includes the provision of resources (food,
water, energy, etc.) and the safe disposal of numerous forms of waste. Its core
principles include the conservation and reuse of products and resources.
Another important debate concerns the extent to which government
organizations (both nationally and supranational) should play a specific role. There
are competing approaches: one advocates promoting sustainability through
regulations, and the other advocating market forces and individual behavior as the
main driver.
The question remains whether expectations can be placed on organizations that
seek to optimize positive perceptions (governments) or on organizations that seek to
optimize performance and profitability (corporations and individuals). Ironically,
while governments tend to be inflexible and unable to adapt, corporations have
demonstrated an amazing ability to change their strategies and deliver products that
reflect customer expectations (including environmentally friendly products). In
addition, consumer behavior is a key factor in achieving sustainability as it affects the
supply and delivery of goods. Thus, it can be argued that the private sector is more
likely to achieve sustainability than the public sector, especially because the benefits
are clear.
Sustainable transport is the ability to support the mobility needs of a society in
a way that is least damaging to the environment and does not disrupt the mobility
needs of future generations [27].
There are various Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) that promote
sustainable transport to achieve specific goals. These include SDG 3 for health
(improve road safety), SDG 7 for energy, SDG 8 for decent work and economic
growth, SDG 9 for infrastructure sustainability, SDG 11 for sustainable cities (access
on transport and expanded public transport), SDG 12 on sustainable consumption and

48
production (ending fossil fuel subsidies) and SDG 14 on oceans, seas and marine
resources.
Sustainable development as applied to transport systems requires the
promotion of links between environmental protection, economic efficiency and social
progress. Within the environmental dimension, the goal is to understand the mutual
influence of the physical environment and industry practices, and that environmental
issues are addressed by all aspects of the transport industry. In the economic
dimension, the goal is to orient progress in the sense of economic efficiency.
Transport must be cost-effective and adaptable to changing requirements. In the
social dimension, the goal is to improve the standard and quality of life.
To create an effective competitive transport system, 3 main components are
required:
- provision of competitive high quality transport services;
- creation of high-performance safe vehicles and transport infrastructure,
which are necessary to the extent that they provide competitive high-quality transport
services;
- creation of conditions for exceeding the level of supply of transport
services over demand (otherwise there will be no competitive environment).
The life-changing year 2020 and the rapid approach of 2030, set by the UN
as the date for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, are influencing
trends. In the coming year, many will seriously consider rebuilding the
environment after the pandemic and maximizing efforts to combat climate change
and reduce carbon emissions.
The strategic goal of the development of the transport system is to meet the
needs of the innovative socially oriented development of the economy and society
in competitive high-quality transport services.
Transport sustainability measures have their limits. Indeed, the built
environment, transport infrastructure and even modes of transport cannot change
quickly enough to solve most of the problems associated with unsustainable
transport. Most of the investments that have already been made will last for 50

49
years or more. New investment (in additional or improved infrastructure) will
represent little more than a few percentage points in reducing road congestion and
its negative externalities.
While policies, rules and regulations are all about compliance, users tend to
react instinctively to price signals and abandon methods that become costly
(volatile) and find loopholes. Transport and sustainability for both passengers and
cargo must also address mitigation issues versus adaptation issues [46]:
- mitigation refers to improving the productivity and efficiency of existing
modes of transport, terminals and management approaches in order to reduce external
environmental impacts. As a rule, these are short-term and medium-term strategies;
- adaptation is the change in the utilization and market share of the
respective modes of transport to better reflect long-term trends such as higher energy
prices, better information technology and stricter environmental regulations.
There is a wide range of environmental sustainability measures with different
local, national and international regulations. This is due to the different costs of
transport operations, which must be built into the cost of providing vehicles and
services. Environmental sustainability is a growing area of responsibility for transport
service providers, encouraging them to gain experience in environmental
management. The most important challenge is the introduction of sustainable
transport within competitive market structures, relying on coping with changes in
transport demand while improving transport supply.
The concept of sustainable transport is widely recognized as a goal and is
featured in the environmental plans of many governments and corporations.
However, sustainable transport remains elusive as it does not offer clear guidelines
but is mostly a storytelling that allows stakeholders to remain vague about their
commitments and efforts.
Since the early 2000s, there has been a rethinking of the sustainable
development goals in the transport sector towards a more tangible strategy with an
emphasis on carbon. It has mostly formed around the decarbonization of transport,
which helps to articulate the fossil fuel narrative. This concept does not undermine

50
the goal of transport, which is to ensure the mobility of passengers and goods, but
that the carbon footprint of transport activities should be reduced. Even when it
comes to carbon, decarbonization directly affects other externalities, since most air
pollutants are the result of burning fossil fuels. Decarburization transport focuses on
three main applications [36]:
- infrastructure. The main components of decarbonization are transport
corridors and terminals. Their construction, maintenance and upgrades may depend
on less carbon-intensive procurement strategies, including the use of materials.
Modes of transport, especially in terms of the economies of scale they offer, can be
ranked by their carbon intensity. This means that preference should be given to low-
carbon infrastructure support regimes as well as inter-modalism between modes of
transport;
- vehicles and equipment. For mobile vehicles, the focus is on fuel and
energy sources. Electrification of roads and railways is considered a key strategy as it
focuses on the regimes that contribute the most to CO2 emissions. Ideally, a large
proportion of urban mobility should come from pedestrians and bicycles;
- management and operations. The focus is on pricing strategies that alter
the competitiveness of modes of transport based on their carbon emissions. The
growing competitiveness of decarbonized transport is expected to supplant transport
technologies based on fossil fuels. More efficient use of existing transport assets such
as freight platforms and passenger sharing services is also recognized.
Recent advances in car sharing and the potential for self-driving vehicles
highlight a much more rational use of automotive assets, which could lead to the
removal of up to 90% of vehicles from the streets. This complements the continuous
technological advancements in the engine and drive technology, which have resulted
in lower vehicle emissions. This contradicts the trend in the transport community
towards a focus on public transport and non-motorized transport as the dominant, if
not the only, strategy for sustainable transport. However, almost all public transport
systems are financially unsustainable, placing a burden on society that is acceptable
because they provide accessibility to all socio-economic groups. In this process, it is

51
also necessary to take into account freight transport, given the significant increase in
the volume of trade in raw materials and goods in the world economy. Freight
transport is much more dependent on environmentally friendly modes of transport
such as rail and sea transport [10].
The achievement of this strategic goal will be ensured by the effective
development of a competitive environment in the transport industry, the creation of
optimal reserves in the development of infrastructure, the achievement of an
advanced level of development of technology and technology, increased attention to
social and environmental factors, an increase in national, economic and other types of
transport-dependent country security.
It should be noted that in the BRICS countries, the situations with the
achievement of sustainable transport are different. Analyzing the Logistics
Performance Index (Fig. 7): Quality of Trade and Transport Infrastructure indicator
in each country, we can conclude that they all strive to achieve sustainable goals,
however, in comparison with other goals, infrastructure, and especially the quality of
logistics, lags far behind. three out of five countries. Consequently, there are
problems that prevent you from achieving your goals.
An important role in the implementation of the Transport Strategy is played by
increasing the manageability and controllability of transport development by
increasing the efficiency of methods of state regulation and management, the
development of project management mechanisms. An important role in this direction
will be played by the creation of an integrated system of state strategic planning for
the development of transport infrastructure based on the transport and economic
balance at the federal, regional and municipal levels.
The complex characteristics and multiple impacts of transport infrastructure
have fostered research to identify and model transport sustainability. As the topic of
sustainable development has been in the spotlight, the sustainable assessment of
transport infrastructure is gaining in importance. In addition, optimization of the
network structure and analysis of the spatial relationships of the functioning of
infrastructure are key ways to ensure the sustainability of countries.

52
 Figure 7 - Logistics Performance Index in BRICS
The most important strategic direction for the development of the transport
system is the balanced advanced development of the transport infrastructure. The
implementation of this direction means the coordinated integrated development of all
elements of the transport infrastructure based on the construction of the transport and
economic balance, the development of the statistical accounting system, the use of
mathematical forecasting and modeling methods to study the needs of the sectors of
the economy and the population in transport services, the dynamics of the cargo base,
as well as analysis options for the development of the transport system.
53
 One of the priorities of the state policy in the field of transport for the period up
to 2030 is to ensure the sustainability and predictability of the transport system. This
provides for the creation of technological and infrastructural reserves, with the help
of which, under the conditions of natural fluctuations and the growth of the projected
demand for transportation in accordance with the needs of the socio-economic
development of the country, the transport system will be able to provide the
population and business with safe, affordable price and predictable transport services
of adequate quality at the right time and in the right place with minimal negative
impact on the environment and human health.
Of particular importance for the Transport Strategy is the improvement of the
system of providing the transport industry with labor resources, which should ensure
the implementation of projects for the development of transport systems, the
operation of transport infrastructure and vehicles, the provision of transport and
logistics services, etc.
Road transport is a major source of air pollution, especially in large cities. But
air transport affects the atmosphere no less - the influence of one liner is equal to 8
thousand cars plus noise pollution, which affects human health no less than other
types of environmental pollution. River and sea mainly affect the hydrosphere - oil
pollution of both inland water bodies and the oceans is associated primarily with the
work of this particular transport.
The influence of railway transport on nature is complex - the withdrawal of
land for construction, the clogging of areas adjacent to the highways, noise pollution.
Taking into account all the features, the main prospects for the development of
transport are:
- improvement and modification of rolling stock, including to reduce the
negative impact on the environment;
- electrification of railway transport;
- expansion and improvement of the network of transport routes, including
through the "transport" development of new territories.

54
 The research results considered in this article indicate that the solution to the
problem of sustainable development of modern cities, in which the largest part of the
population is concentrated and the largest share of GDP is created, largely depends
on the sustainable development of urban transport. The main directions of sustainable
development of urban transport in different countries, regions and cities are
characterized by the generality and repeatability of goals, methods and means of
achievement. This allows us to assert that the sustainable development of transport
systems is one of the global challenges facing modern civilization. Sustainable
development should be carried out with an assessment of the decisions made and
implemented not only according to economic criteria, but taking into account an
integrated, balanced approach to the aggregation of its results of various nature
(economic, environmental, social, urban planning, resource, technical and
technological, political, etc.). This will ensure an increase in the quality of life of the
population and preservation of the habitat.
Summing up this part of the work, the following points are necessary for the
development of transport infrastructure in the BRICS countries:
- an increase in the economic efficiency of passenger and freight
transportation, which will optimize the transport costs of the economy and increase
the availability of transport services for the population;
- the growth of population mobility, which is one of the most important
factors in improving the quality of human capital in the BRICS countries;
- reducing differentiation in the availability of transport services for
different regions and social groups of society;
- expanding the range and improving the quality of transport services
through the use of modern transport, logistic and infocommunication technologies,
the development of new forms of organization of the transport process and interaction
between modes of transport;
- increasing the level of professional training and qualifications of
transport workers, improving their material and social security, creating safe working
conditions;

55
 - ensuring the reliability and safety of the functioning of the transport
system, including in the field of ecology, reducing the number of accidents and
disasters, injuries and deaths in traffic accidents;
- as a result - improvement of the investment climate in the transport
industry.
The mission of the state in the sphere of functioning and development of
transport is defined as creating conditions for economic growth, increasing the
competitiveness of the national economy and the quality of life of the population
through access to safe and high-quality transport services, transforming the
geographical features of countries into its competitive advantage. The strategic goal
of the development of the transport system is to meet the needs of the innovative
socially-oriented development of the economy and society in high-quality transport
services that are competitive with the best world analogues. The achievement of this
strategic goal will be ensured by the effective development of the competitive
environment in the transport industry, the creation of optimal reserves in the
development of infrastructure, the achievement of an advanced level of development
of equipment and technologies, and increased attention to social and environmental
factors.
The most important strategic direction for the development of the transport
system is the balanced development of the transport infrastructure. The
implementation of this direction means the coordinated integrated development of all
elements of the transport infrastructure. An important role in the implementation of
the transport strategy is played by increasing the manageability and controllability of
transport development by increasing the efficiency of methods of state regulation and
management, developing project management mechanisms, increasing the efficiency
of the legislative and legal field.
As a result of this part, investments in the development of the transport
infrastructure of countries create a multiplier effect that ensures sustainable and
dynamic development of the country's economy, growth in production and
employment, and stimulation of domestic demand.

56
 In the process of building the infrastructure network, additional demand is
generated both for the products of fund-forming industries, and for materials and raw
materials necessary for the functioning of the transport network. In turn, the income
received within the framework of the project also stimulates the growth of consumer
demand and, as a consequence, the demand for induced investment.
External effects of direct action result in an increase in production in those
sectors that receive direct investment for infrastructure development (mainly
construction, steel production1, cement, etc.). The indirect effects are expressed in
the increase in production in the supporting sectors (mainly in the branches of the
production of rolling stock and other equipment, electronics, etc.). The effects of the
additional action are expressed in an increase in the income of transport companies,
job growth, increased territorial connectivity and time savings, convergence of levels
of regional economic development, reduced logistics costs, tourism development,
environmental improvement and, as a consequence, an increase in the level of life.

CONCLUSION

In the diploma study, in accordance with the set goal, substantiations are
provided for the development of theoretical and methodological provisions on the
factors, directions and tools for improving the transport infrastructure of the BRICS
57
countries, the development of practical recommendations for enhancing its use. In
this case, the following results were obtained:
- the composition, role of factors and directions of development of the
country's transport infrastructure have been determined, within the framework of
development directions in modern conditions, the urgency of intensifying the use of
internal economic factors on the basis of improving the tools for assessing the process
of changing the territorial transport system has been proved.
- justified the use of transport accessibility as a determining criterion for
the effectiveness of the use of transport infrastructure, clarified its definition in order
to reflect the connectivity of the economic space in the parameters of the volume of
transported goods and the number of passengers, income of the population and its
urbanization, as well as the availability of labor resources;
- a set of recommendations was developed to enhance the use of transport
infrastructure, taking into account the specific economic situation in the world,
territorial specifics and objective transport needs; the expediency of more active use
of investments for the development of the transport infrastructure of countries was
proved.
Transport investments are becoming more and more complex. Decision-makers
must consider a wider range of factors. These factors include the influence of
transport systems as the driving force of growth and the cost of growth. They also
include the impact on the environment and quality of life in the country served by the
transport system. Currently, concepts and studies regarding the impact of transport
infrastructure on economic development are not well understood.
The reliability and validity of the research results is confirmed by the
application of scientific methods, the use of scientific materials and evidence, and the
development of specific recommendations. The theoretical significance of the study
lies in the development of scientific ideas about the effectiveness of the use of
transport infrastructure based on factors of an organizational and economic nature.
The practical significance of the study lies in the fact that its results are brought to

58
concrete proposals for managing the development of transport infrastructure in the
BRICS countries, taking into account the economic situation and territorial specifics.
During the analysis of the transport infrastructure of the BRICS countries, a lot
of work was done to search, collect and analyze data. As a result, it was proved that
transport is a priority area for the development of the economies of countries.
Adequate infrastructure is a fundamental prerequisite for a country's transport system.
Transport has a significant direct and indirect impact on economic efficiency and
economic growth. Transport infrastructure is critical to the country's sustainable
economic growth.
Transport is an important component of the economy of the BRICS countries,
since it is a material carrier between regions, industries, and enterprises.
Specialization of regions, their integrated development is impossible without a
transport system. Rationalization of transportation affects the production efficiency of
individual enterprises, regions and the country as a whole. Transport is also of great
importance in solving social and economic problems. Providing the territory with a
developed transport system is one of the important factors in attracting population
and production, it is an important advantage for the location of productive forces and
gives the effect of integration.
In the course of the work, the goal was achieved - to determine the factors
influencing the development of the transport infrastructure of the BRICS countries, as
well as ways to improve the situation. The hypothesis about the interaction of factors
reflecting the activities of the transport and logistics sector, about its development in
the context of the investment flow in the transport sector was confirmed. Empirical
data analysis showed a positive relationship between passenger traffic, workforce in
the structure, urbanization of the population and the area of the country, taking into
account Air Transport; a positive relationship between passenger traffic, labor force
in the structure, urbanization of the population and GDP per capita, as well as the
negative impact of rising gasoline prices, taking into account Road transport; a
positive relationship between freight traffic, labor force in the structure, urbanization
of the population, country area and gasoline prices, taking into account Rail transport.

59
 The transport infrastructure is aimed at meeting the needs of the economy and
the population of the country in transportation, reliable domestic and international
trade in compliance with the requirements of national, economic and environmental
safety, systematic and proportional development of land, water and air
communication routes in the future, regional transport security and mobilization
readiness to carry out transportation in emergency situations. The BRICS countries
are actively developing and investing in the transport infrastructure of their countries,
realizing its importance and fundamental importance for the development of the
economy.

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66
 APPENDIX A
Main theoretical aspects
Table A.1 - Literature review
Name, Date Description
G.A. Goltz (2005) Exploring infrastructure as a factor of the country's outstripping
socio-economic development, he understands it as “the whole
complex of devices, systems, structures that ensure
reproductive processes in the economic, social, cultural,
environmental, demographic, managerial, and political spheres.
- the political spheres of society.
V. Vidyapin and Infrastructure is what ensures the functioning of the main
M. Stepanov production in this territory, but is not part of industrial
(2007) enterprises.
Awadeani Yu.I. Understands the transport system as a set of its components,
(2018) such as technical and management parts, and suggests in this
sense to consider the terms "transport system" and "transport
complex" as synonyms.
S.V. Ganzin The transport system is “a territorial union of a network of
(2018) communication routes, technical means (including rolling
stock) and transport services, uniting in its interaction all types
of transport and all components of the transport process. ,
ensures the implementation of transport and economic relations
with the aim of the successful functioning of the country's
economy
L.N. Rudnev, 4 methodological approaches to defining transport
A.M. infrastructure - technocratic (or sectoral), functional, costly,
Kudryavtseva systemic
(2013)
Advanced Infrastructure” is the basic systems and services, such as
Learner's Dic- transportation and power supplies, that a country or

67
tionary & organization uses to operate efficiently. Infrastructure is an
Thesaurus (2016) integral part of the
Table A.1 Continuation
Name, Date Description
territorial structure of the national economy, which is formed
by transport, communications, trade, energy and water
management systems, as well as residential buildings, schools,
healthcare, culture, sports and other care facilities. inhabitants
and their location in any territory
N. A. Ivanova Transport infrastructure is a special set of certain functions that
(2012), V. V. provide conditions for the smooth and fast execution of the
Yanovsky (2012), transport process.
L. G. Serebryakov
(2011)
Grzelakowski, A. The logistics infrastructure, which determines the effective
(2014) implementation of logistics processes, includes "technical
means, ways of handling and systems for their use" [14].
Cortés- The study uses qualitative research to benchmark variables.
Villafradez., RA & The type of tool used in the study is based on the compilation
De la Peña- of statistical information obtained from the infrastructure and
Cárdenas. (2019) competitiveness databases of the World Economic Forum
(WEF), Infralatam, Doing Business and Comtrade. This work
is about competitiveness, but it can be emphasized that the
development of transport infrastructure is a key element in
increasing competitiveness, as it reduces the impact of distance
and freight costs, which allows for more efficient market
integration. Each country needs a tailor-made strategy that
aligns with trade integration goals in Asia.

68
Table A.1 Continuation
Name, Date Description
Saudu Samir, This study examines the relationship between information and
Haifa Mefteh communication technology (ICT), transport and foreign direct
(2019) investment (FDI) in countries with different income levels
during the period 2000-2016. It examines the impact of ICT
and transport on the territorial attractiveness of FDI in host
countries. The global panel of 63 countries was divided into
three subgroups. Using GMM estimates, we found that these
variables influence each other over the long term. The direction
of causality varies across panels with different levels of
significance. These empirical studies are of particular interest
to policymakers in both developed and developing countries.
They prove the significant impact of transport and ICT
infrastructure on the economic development of host countries
due to their significant contribution to increasing the
attractiveness of FDI.
Kunyazov, Ye., From a business point of view, logistics is an integral
Shakhman, Ye., management tool that contributes to the achievement of the
Rakhimova, S., strategic, tactical or operational goals of your organization
Mussina, A., through effective (in terms of reducing overall costs and
Ernazarov, T. meeting end-user requirements for the quality of products and
(2020) services).) management of material flows, flows of services
and the flows of information and finance associated with them.
Thus, in modern conditions, logistics and logistics systems
become important elements of the potential for the
development of a market economy of any country, an
important production segment of the economy.
Katarzyna In the case of the EAEU countries, the BRI onshore branch can
Czerewacz- become an important driving factor for their economic
Filipowicz (2019) development, which they so need. In terms of territorial

69
 coverage,
Table A.1 Continuation
Name, Date Description
the Belt and Road Initiative is the largest among these
integration initiatives and currently covers about 60 countries,
including the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union and
the European Union. On the contrary, the institutional
architecture of the BRI is incomparably smaller than that of the
EU or even the EAEU. The goal of all three integration
initiatives is to create harmonious and stable relationships with
each other.
Likhacheva A., The authors consider the main Eurasian infrastructure projects
Makarov I., of interest for the comprehensive development of the EAEU
Pestich A. (2018) infrastructure, as well as the main challenges and opportunities
that arise for Russia in the framework of interaction between
the EAEU and the APR countries in the field of infrastructure.
[36]. The authors conclude that Russia's integration into
Eurasian transport and logistics initiatives requires aligning the
transport agenda with the rules of trade and investment. Such
coordination presupposes close interaction with the Eurasian
Economic Commission, and in the long term even the transfer
of competencies related to the development of the EAEU
infrastructure agenda to the supranational level.
Qureshi Z. (2017) BRICS activities are an important element of the leadership of
emerging market economies and their mutual cooperation in
the field of global economic governance. The role of the Forum
in the infrastructure action agenda is particularly important
given that much of the growth in infrastructure demand will
come from its member countries. China alone spends more on
infrastructure than the countries of North America and Western
Europe combined. The BRICS countries together provide about
half of the world's infrastructure investment.
70
Table A.1 End
Name, Date Description
Revista de It has characterized the impact of in-vestments in
Economia e infrastructure, in particular in transport, on the economic
Administração growth of Brazilian states in the recent period (24 years) and
(2014) thus assess the potential of this investment. to reduce regional
inequality. In this context, the impact of the current
infrastructure investment model on the dynamics of the
Brazilian region was assessed, taking into account the
investments made by the federal and state governments under
the PAC.

71
 APPENDIX B
Results
Table B.1 - Empirical Model Analysis Summary89

Transport Variable end-to-end FE RE

AIR lAPT 1.7466*** .2374** 1.7466***

(.2086) (.09631) (.2087)
lUPop .4820** -.0155 .4820**
(.1870) (.0554) (.1871)
lWfrc .4253*** .2431*** .4254***
(.0705) (.0228) (0.0705)
lArea .6240*** Omitted .6240***
(.1643) (.1643)
lCGDP .7959***
(.2721)
cons -34.5668*** 8.1576*** -34.5668***
(2.4863) (1.7206) (2.4863)
R^2 (Wald 0.9731 0.8976 903.95
chi2 in RE)
Prob > F 0.0000 0.0000 0.000
Number of 30 25 30
obs
ROAD RdPT 1.119*** 0.6889 1.1191***
(.2212) (.4423) (.2212)
lWfrc .5693*** .2616*** .5693***
(.0892) (.0189) (.0892)
Lppr -2.119** -.6487*** -2.1190***
Table B.1 End
Transport Variable end-to-end FE RE
ROAD lppr (.7776) (.2193) (.7776)
lUPop 1.095*** -.0637 1.0955***
(.2636) (.0547) (.2637)
cons -30.76*** -.2806 -30.7667***
(4.5417)
8
Made by author based on the analysis results
9
***-99%, **-95%, *-90% significant

72
 (5.6602) (4.5418)
R^2 (Wald 0.9492 0.9380 448.72
chi2 in RE)
Prob > F 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Number of 30 25 30
obs
RAIL lRGT .8967*** 1.1150** .8967***
(2.424) (..4434) (.2424)
lArea 1.4076*** Omitted 1.4077***
(/2984) (.2984)
lUpop 1.8257*** .0520 1.8257***
(.1838) (.0702) (.1838)
lWfrc .3668*** .3026*** .3668**
(.1046) (.02135) (.1046)
lPprc 2.4728** -.5663** 2.4782**
(.9800) (.2582) (.9800)
cons -56.0224 -1.3325 -56.0224***
(6.3688) (7.2721) (6.3689)
R^2 0.9430 0.9264 397.10
Prob > F 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Number of 30 25 30
obs

APPENDIX С
Tests
Table C.1 - Choosing the most adequate model10

Kind of Test results

transpor
FE& end-to-end regression Fe&RE
t

10
Compiled by the author based on the analysis results

73
 Breusch and Pagan Lagrangian multiplier test for random effects Note: the rank of the differenced variance matrix (3) does not equal the number of coefficients
Air
being tested (4); be sure this is what you expect, or there may be problems computing the
lINV[country,t] = Xb + u[country] + e[country,t]
test. Examine the output of your estimators for anything unexpected and possibly consider
Estimated results: scaling your variables so that the coefficients are on a similar scale.
Var sd = sqrt(Var)

lINV 10.6763 3.267461 Coefficients

e .0437249 .2091049 (b) (B) (b-B) sqrt(diag(V_b-V_B))
u 0 0
fixed . Difference S.E.
Test: Var(u) = 0
chibar2(01) = 0.00 lAPT .1768919 1.789245 -1.612353 .3742552
Prob > chibar2 = 1.0000 lWfrc .3100289 .4175395 -.1075106 .0332903
lUPop -.0035083 .4193106 -.4228189 .1472882
lCGDP .7044129 -.1280621 .832475 1.076117

b = consistent under Ho and Ha; obtained from xtreg

B = inconsistent under Ha, efficient under Ho; obtained from xtreg

Test: Ho: difference in coefficients not systematic

chi2(3) = (b-B)'[(V_b-V_B)^(-1)](b-B)
= 21.33
Prob>chi2 = 0.0001
(V_b-V_B is not positive definite)
Breusch and Pagan Lagrangian multiplier test for random effects Note: the rank of the differenced variance matrix (3) does not equal the number of coefficients
Railway being tested (4); be sure this is what you expect, or there may be problems computing the
lINV[country,t] = Xb + u[country] + e[country,t] test. Examine the output of your estimators for anything unexpected and possibly consider
scaling your variables so that the coefficients are on a similar scale.
Estimated results:
Coefficients
Var sd = sqrt(Var)
(b) (B) (b-B) sqrt(diag(V_b-V_B))
fixed . Difference S.E.
lINV 10.6763 3.267461
e .0479992 .2190871 lRGT 1.246079 .8967488 .3493306 2.025578
u 0 0 lWfrc .3359795 .3668192 -.0308397 .0545544
lUPop -.0515043 1.825718 -1.877222 .4003356
Test: Var(u) = 0 lPprc -.4627581 2.472834 -2.935592 .9722169
chibar2(01) = 0.00
Prob > chibar2 = 1.0000 b = consistent under Ho and Ha; obtained from xtreg
B = inconsistent under Ha, efficient under Ho; obtained from xtreg

Test: Ho: difference in coefficients not systematic

chi2(3) = (b-B)'[(V_b-V_B)^(-1)](b-B)
= 22.75
Prob>chi2 = 0.0000

Table C.1 End

Kind of Test results
transpor
FE& end-to-end regression Fe&RE
t

74
 Breusch and Pagan Lagrangian multiplier test for random effects Note: the rank of the differenced variance matrix (4) does not equal the number of coefficients
Road
being tested (5); be sure this is what you expect, or there may be problems computing the
lINV[country,t] = Xb + u[country] + e[country,t] test. Examine the output of your estimators for anything unexpected and possibly consider
scaling your variables so that the coefficients are on a similar scale.
Estimated results:
Var sd = sqrt(Var) Coefficients
(b) (B) (b-B) sqrt(diag(V_b-V_B))
lINV 10.6763 3.267461 fixed . Difference S.E.
e .0407332 .2018247
u 0 0
lRdPT .545675 1.119126 -.5734507 1.504712
lWfrc .3085038 .5693884 -.2608846 .0623905
Test: Var(u) = 0
lUPop -.0325566 1.09551 -1.128067 .328124
chibar2(01) = 0.00
lPprc -.2883415 -2.119066 1.830725 1.127924
Prob > chibar2 = 1.0000
lCGDP .8870114 .6621765 .224835 1.327975

b = consistent under Ho and Ha; obtained from xtreg

B = inconsistent under Ha, efficient under Ho; obtained from xtreg

Test: Ho: difference in coefficients not systematic

chi2(4) = (b-B)'[(V_b-V_B)^(-1)](b-B)
= 22.76
Prob>chi2 = 0.0001
(V_b-V_B is not positive definite)

75
76
 APPENDIX D
Empirical data
Figure 1 - Data for analysis

Passenger Railways,
Railways, Airways,
Road, goods road passengers
goods goods Pump price Air transport, volume of workforce in
transported transport, carried country area GDP per number of Urban
Country YEAR transported transported for gasoline passengers investments in the the transport
(mil ion ton- Passenger- (mil ion (km2) capita (USD) road deaths population
(mil ion ton- (mil ion ton- (US$ per liter) carried transport industry sector
km) kilometers, passenger-
km) km)
Mil ions km)
Brazil 2015 40785000 149400000 22031000 0,92 11343000 15901000 100403628 8516000 6450586022 8846 2756850 20800 173346772
Brazil 2016 41107000 151400000 24523000 1,02 10997000 15877000 102039359 8516000 7197431253 8757 2639520 23400 175375436
Brazil 2017 48538000 173700000 25539000 1,19 11034100 15648000 94142377 8516000 8419226449 9975 2601220 22600 177386818
Brazil 2018 52574000 184600000 26564000 1,32 10819000 15807000 96395709 8516000 7804189604 9043 2611750 179379301
Brazil 2019 48205000 152100000 28082000 1,27 10596700 102109977 8516000 7050908988 8751 19700 181335507
Brazil 2020 28516000 1,13 10694000 102917546 8516000 6894743240 6450 183241641
Russia 2015 230594500 476100000 250054000 0,77 12735300 13851700 72189961 17130000 14861669453 9258 5659700 26958 106354644
Russia 2016 234408700 586300000 246784000 0,89 12662200 13027000 76846126 17130000 11179374531 8724 5592700 23114 106703732
Russia 2017 249342800 684500000 240175000 0,84 12442700 12462000 77458318 17130000 12501065917 10724 5685500 20308 107050095
Russia 2018 259777800 681000000 245818000 0,99 12344200 12309600 89373638 17130000 11853024152 11345 5735200 19088 107349517
Russia 2019 260249300 662100000 248990000 0,81 12253900 12954200 99327311 17130000 11709781817 11601 5799100 18214 107539205
Russia 2020 263878000 0,59 13359800 115482744 17130000 13510430017 9972 16981 107708298
India 2015 65448100 183400000 1407800 1,09 13403000 83803200 82718882,9 3287000 10561065687 1606 139671 419568459
India 2016 62017500 189400000 1653600 1,15 15415000 90346500 98927860 3287000 12284224046 1732 146133 429428653
India 2017 65428500 240700000 1824300 1,25 17496000 10461000 119577835 3287000 14403684455 1982 4768006 150785 439498772
India 2018 270400000 2026100 1,1 19718000 11401030 139752424 3287000 17503945260 2006 5201941 147913 449789369
India 2019 193800000 2226570 0,97 11490390 164035637 3287000 23333764303 2098 4942613 460295677
India 2020 2435870 11613330 167499116 3287000 22352251376 1877 471031528
China 2015 237543000 1980600000 5573810 0,99 185344300 10535600 390878784 9597000 5,26093E+11 8085 6520507 58539 740239259
China 2016 237923000 2130500000 5684690 1,11 173627000 11241900 436183969 9597000 5,53709E+11 8120 6314508 58022 761027100
China 2017 269622000 2332400000 5795570 1,37 161909700 11960600 487690477 9597000 6,34081E+11 8823 6822031 63093 78199374
China 2018 288210000 2525600000 6106010 1,17 154275900 12579300 551234509 9597000 6,55815E+11 9920 6234664 63772 803554542
China 2019 2539500000 6677150 0,96 145678400 13456900 611439830 9597000 7,09679E+11 10522 5933308 63194 823827650
China 2020 7124920 0,99 136717000 14146600 659629070 9597000 10839 842933962
Africa 2015 108213000 893000000 10987000 1,71 17026643 1220000 97000000 5732 583162,2 24100 35078456
Africa 2016 106014000 767000000 1,71 11587000 11972000 18882898 1220000 5267 6990081 25800 35905875
Africa 2017 833000000 17064000 1,69 11765800 13865000 19744932 1220000 6120 661252,8 23200 36726640
Africa 2018 113342000 697000000 20714000 1,41 80821044 1220000 6354 22700 37540921
Africa 2019 539000000 1,44 17611000 24660386 1220000 13500000 5978 22200 38348227
Africa 2020 25650178 1220000 4736 39149715
77