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Tunghai University
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ABTRACT
Industrial countries regard the machine tool industry as strategic industry, and ensure its
crucial role among industries by tremendous government supports. Nevertheless, due to the
special characteristics of industrial products, such as marketing through regional agencies,
less transaction number with higher amounts, longer purchase cycle, and various product
models, the application of data mining to industrial products is relatively less. Note
worthily, when a customer purchase machine tools through regional agents, he or she
usually purchases special accessories for coupling with purchased machines. Most of the
salesperson at regional agents recommends special accessories to customers by judging the
machine type depending on their experience. That often incurs the loss of extra sales, or the
delay in fulfilling orders. The back order operation brings customer complaint as well. This
research not only aims to applying the CRoss Industry Standard Process for Data Ming
(CRIPS-DM) to find out association rules which is helpful to make decision, but also to
integrate association rules and construct support system to assist regional agents’
salespersons when they make recommendation decision. The results of this research can be
used to motivate more data mining researches or applications focus on industrial related
product.
purchase machine tools through regional agents, he or 2.1 Recommendation of Machine Tools and
she usually purchases special accessories for coupling Special Accessories
with purchased machines. This is due to the For the sales of machine tools and special
consideration of processing accuracy and/or cutting accessories, a quotation given to a customer should
rate, and to fulfill the requirement of environmental include three areas as shown in table 1: (1) the
protection and industrial safety. The regional agents description of items and specifications of machines;
will also take advantage of the assortment of special (2) standard accessories (usually they are free
accessories to conduct non-price competition and attachments); and (3) special accessories (for
differential promotions. Most of the salesperson at customer’s optional purchases). The items of special
regional agents recommends special accessories to accessories include company’s existing accessory
customers by judging the machine type and time products (the number of accessory items ranges from
depending on their experience. That often incurs the over 10 to over 40, depending on the types of
loss of extra sales, or the delay in fulfilling orders. machines). If existing accessories could not meet
The back order operation brings customer complaint special demands from customers, then the
as well. If we could take advantage of data mining salesperson may request the development of new
techniques to analyze customer’s behaviors of special accessories. After the machine tool
purchasing machines and special accessories (such as manufacturer evaluated the feasibility, the new
the relationship between purpose of machine and special accessories will be produced and delivered to
responding special accessories) which customers the customer and added into the list of new special
have bought to help regional agents’ salesperson to accessories.
make recommendation decision, it will reduce For the regional agents of machine tools, they
unnecessary inventory cost for the company, shorten often conduct non-price competitions and differential
delivery period and bring fruits of “win-win” for both promotions with standard accessories and special
parties. accessories to promote their machines. Also, adapting
Based on the above mentioned viewpoints, this to the requirements of environmental protection and
article is trying to apply data mining technology to industrial safety in different countries and regions or
assist machine tool manufacturers’ agents in the different demands from individual firms for
recommendation of special accessories. The processing accuracy and cutting rate, special
objectives of this research includes: (1) Applying the accessories can be better to meet the variations of
CRoss Industry Standard Process for Data Ming market demands under customization concept. For
(CRIPS-DM) to find out association rules which is the customers who have special requirements, they
helpful to make decision; (2) Integrating association often ask agents to conduct trial works for them to
rules and constructing prototype system to assist select appropriate machines and special accessories.
regional agents’ salespersons when they make Therefore, the analysis of association characteristics
recommendation decision. of a region, as well as purchased machines or
responding special accessories may provide
assistance for regional agents’ salespersons when
2. LITERATURE REVIEW they give recommendation and quotation. Through
the combination of special accessories, it may
We discuss related characteristics of the
strengthen the difference of market competitiveness.
machine tools industry and the data mining
technology below:
2.2 Data Mining Related Technology which takes advantage of simple and step-by-step
Data mining is receiving more and more methods to find out association rules among items in
attention from the business community, as witnessed database. Its major weakness is that it is costly to
by frequent publications in the popular information handle a huge number of candidate sets, it is tedious
technology related literature, and the growing number to repeatedly scan the database and check a large set
of tools appearing on the market. The commercial of candidates by pattern matching. The current trend
interest in data mining is mainly due to increasing is toward to apply FP-growth to reduce time of
awareness of companies that the vast amounts of data scanning database and not produce candidate sets to
collected on customers and their behaviors contain speed up the calculation and enhance efficiency
valuable information. If the hidden information can [11,12].
be made explicit, it can be used to improve vital After finding out frequent patterns by the
business processes. Frawley et al. [5] pointed out that FP-growth algorithm, we can then produce
data mining is the process of excavating non-obvious, association rules from frequent patterns. All the rules
unknown and probably useful information from must have support and confidence greater than some
database. Agrawal and Srikant [2] defined data user-defined minimum support and minimum
mining as a technology that combines machine confidence thresholds, respectively. This research
learning, statistic methods, and database. Through the adopts DBMiner as data mining tool. This tool not
analysis of massive information in the database, we only integrates FP-growth algorithm with database,
may further extract implicative information, but also provides graphic user interface for easy
relationship, and meaningful knowledge. To sum up, operation and examination [6].
the problem data mining has to handle is to find out
valuable hidden information or system behavior in
massive database. The most important contribution is 3. ANALYTIC MODEL AND
that it is capable of extracting meaningful APPLICATIONS OF DATA
information from database and inducting a structural MINING
model to be referenced for managers when they make
decisions.
At present, there are many data mining To facilitate the systematical construction of
technologies that could be applied, including mainly analytic model of data mining, the research
[4]: Analysis of shopping basket, Memory-Based employees the CRoss Industry Standard Process for
Reasoning (MBR), automatic cluster detection, Data Mining (CRIPS-DM) [10] to normalize the
linkage analysis, decision tree, neural network, and analytical process, shown as Figure 1. The procedural
genetic algorithms. Because the focus of this research model includes six stages. (1) Business
is on the association of sales combining machine understanding. It focuses on understanding the
tools and special accessories, from the view of project objectives and requirements from a business
technological attributes and problem application, the perspective, then converting this knowledge into a
research may be more reasonable to adopt technology data mining problem definition and a preliminary
for shopping basket analysis. Shopping basket plan designed to achieve the objectives. (2) Data
analysis is a form of mass analysis or association understanding. It starts with an initial data collection
analysis. The strength is that it can find out a and proceeds with activities in order to get familiar
combination of goods which could be sold together. with the data, to discover first insights into the data or
An association rule represents an interesting to detect interesting subsets to form hypotheses for
relationship written as ABB, “if A occurs, then B hidden information. (3) Data preparation. It covers all
likely occurs”. The probability that both A and B activities to construct the final dataset, data that will
occur is called the support, and written as count be fed into the modeling tools from the initial raw
(AB). The probability that B occurs given that A has data. Tasks include table, record and attribute
occurred is called the confidence. A is a frequent selection as well as transformation and cleaning of
pattern if A’s support is no less than a predefined data for modeling tools. (4) Modeling. Various
minimum support threshold. The association rules modeling techniques are selected and applied and
mining problem is to find all association rules above their parameters are calibrated to optimal values. (5)
the user-specified minimum support and minimum Evaluation. It is important to more thoroughly
confidence. This is done in two steps [8,9]: step 1, evaluate the model and review the steps executed to
find all frequent patterns; step 2, generate association construct the model to be certain it properly achieves
rules from frequent patterns. the business objectives. (6) Deployment. It often
There are two algorithms for excavating involves applying “live” models within an
association rules: Apriori algorithm and FP-growth organization’s decision making processes, for
(Frequent-Pattern growth) algorithm. In the earlier example in real-time personalization of web pages or
years, the application mainly adopted Apriori [1,7] repeated scoring of marketing databases.
182 International Journal of Electronic Business Management, Vol. 2, No. 3 (2004)
In the stage of evaluation, when using data accessories to their customer. For the reason of
mining technology to excavate a lot of knowledge promotion, machine tool manufacturer will provide
and rules from a database, there are a lot of some simple machine type/model with lesser price.
engendered knowledge and rules and some of them Then the salesperson can encourage customer to
may be repetitive, or meaningless and redundant. purchase additional special accessories for better
Screening criterion needs to be set to screen out processing accuracy or cutting rate. From above
intuitive interesting association rules [8]. These experience principles, we analyzed machine types,
screening criteria will help us quickly find out the special accessory types, and the regions of agents to
interested rules among numerous ones and further to find out meaningful association rules. Secondly,
save the time of analyzing them. regarding the threshold value of minimum
The screening rule of this research mainly includes confidence, the reason why we start with preset value
two items. The first, sales manager provides the of 50% is that most of salesperson promotes
experience of recommendation decision. The machines on their experiences and the chance of
country/region of customer and the machine being successful of recommendations is about 50%.
type/model both provides important foundation for Therefore, we determine that if the confidence is over
recommendation analysis. Because different country 50%, there will be sufficient information for
or region has different environment protect or labor salesperson as basis of decision. Based on above
safety requirement. From these differentiations, screen items, we screen out 32 interesting association
salesperson can recommend correspondent special rules as shown in Table 2.
Taking Taiwan region as an example, when a “U.K.” in the column of region, support is set to 1%,
customer purchasing “Column Type Surface confidence 50%. The salesperson then clicks on
Grinder”, he or she usually selects coolant system “Mining” and the system displays that its association
and electromagnetic chuck as assorted special rules of special accessory is “electromagnetic chuck,
accessories. Their occurrence rate in the sales coolant system and dressing attachment”. So when a
database is 2.152%, which is the “support”. When salesperson provides recommendations to his or her
this type of machine is sold together with accessories customer, he or she can initially recommend
“coolant system” and “electromagnetic chuck”, their electromagnetic, coolant system and dressing
occurrence rate in the Taiwan region is 81.281%, attachment as a combination of accessories to the
which is the “confidence”. In the past, when a customer to enhance the differentiation of company’s
customer purchased some types of machine and products. The prototype of system operation example
assorted recommendations of special accessories, it is shown in Figure 4.
usually needed senior salesperson to make
recommendation by their experiences, seek technical
opinions, or take opinions from R & D department. 4. CONCLUSION AND
That will not be able to take advantage of RECOMMENDATIONS
complements between special accessories and
machine to create differentiation advantages. The The industrial application of data mining
aforesaid excavation of interesting and association technology includes mainly cross analysis of product
rules is helpful to both the salesperson who makes sales, analysis of customers loss rate, market
recommendations on special accessories, and for segmentation, and the response and estimation of
customers who purchase machines. direct mails. Most of them are applied to retailing,
In the stage of deployment, for the convenience finance, insurance, and telecommunication industries
of salesperson’s inquiries or make-decision in the that offer consuming products and services. Because
future, the research reorganized rules in Table 2 to be people in these industries have to face directly the
knowledge database and constructed a simple user’s ultimate customers and the attributes of such
interface to link knowledge database and to help transaction are small amount, high frequencies of
salesperson’s inquiry and satisfy their demands. repeat purchases, more patterns of products, and the
This aided system is developed with Visual numerous transaction related records, the effect of
Basic 6.0. The assort rule knowledge database application of data mining are impressive. But for
follows the format of ACCESS. The prototype system industrial products (such as machine tools), probably
is demonstrated in Figure 3. The regions (countries) due to the characteristics of sales of industrial
include US (branch offices), Taiwan, Europe products (marketing through regional agency, higher
(excluding Germany), Germany, England, Africa, transaction amounts, longer purchase cycles, less
Asia, and North America (excluding branch offices). quantities and more patterns of products, relatively
Those regions (countries) which have not been less numbers of transaction data), the related
screened out association rules are not listed. Besides, application researches of data mining is relatively
the column of regions also provides “all” options to less.
provide all regional search. Regarding to the agents, Based on at least 60,000 transaction records
we learn from Table 2 that not all of the rules have provided by machine tool manufacturers, the
relations with agents. So the column of agent in this research, adopted CRISP-DM process, FP-Tree
system is optional for filling. On machine type, they algorithm, and utilized DBMiner to conduct data
include CNC surface grinder, CNC profile grinder, mining. Under the assistance of a senior sales
Super precision surface and form grinder, Automatic manager in screening works, we selected 32
precision surface grinding machine, Column type association rules from three dimensions of region,
fully automatic surface grinder machine, Submicron machine type and special accessory. For the purpose
CNC profile surface grinder, Heavy-duty CNC Creep of search in the future, we also utilized Visual Basic
feed & profile grinding machine, Column type 6.0 to link rule knowledge database and construct
surface grinder, High efficiency precision profile prototype system to aid salesperson’s
grinder, and Conversational CNC profile grinder. recommendations, so related salesperson can easily
Those machine types which have not been screened search the information they need in future and take
out are not listed. The model number is the the information as a basis when they consider to
sub-category of machine types. When a user set make recommendations to their customer.
machine type, the system shows up the model To give an evaluation of the discovered rules
number for selection. about its usefulness of sales person, we conduct a
For example, if a customer in England wants to depth interview with sales manager of case company.
buy a Conversational CNC profile grinder of type After review these rules and operate the prototype
number FSG-1224ADII, the salesperson has to select system, he concludes that this research result have
186 International Journal of Electronic Business Management, Vol. 2, No. 3 (2004)
two significant contributions to their daily operation. The quantity of data collected by the research is
The first, these rules are simplifying the relatively small comparing to the application of data
recommendation decision of regional salesperson. mining of consumer products. For the machine tool
Because each machine and correspondent special managers who emphasize on the balance between
accessories reaches hundred kinds, the salesperson build to order and scheduling production, the result of
often needs long-term experience or ask assistance this research is promising. Especially, under the
from manufacturer’s engineer to make proper production environment of more types and less
decision. Although these rules still unable to respond quantity, plus complex specifications of models and
all recommendation situations, but it has been special accessories, it often results in too small
possible to assist the salesperson to pay attention to support value and difficult to find association rules.
related recommendation demand behind these rules. At present, machine tool company sales division has
Secondly, these interesting rules help the managers in started to construct more detailed customer data
machine tool manufacture to get the bird’s eye view (including customer’s business revenue, the industry
of each regional customer’s purchasing behavior and customer which belongs to, frequency of machine
knowledge. This result not only can help regional maintenance, customer responds problem and
sales recommendation decision, but also assist the demands, and cycle of ordering machine types and
collaborative product forecasting and planning models, etc). By doing so, the sales managers can
communication between manufacturer and regional understand and control the customer’s demands more
agent. precisely and systematically in the future.