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GLAF/2021/C-320/ARRC/01 Copy No 01 of 02
Total Pages 20
Refs:
1. The PL's relations with us (GL) and SL have always remained strained because of
their ideological differences and terr disputes. From the beginning, both GL and PL had
equal rights of passage through the Strait of Tonkin. Since 2010, tension has been
mounting between these two countries in this region with the discovery of rich minerals
on the island named as Silk. This island is located north of Tonkin (in Blue Sea, north of
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Port Morsby) which is in possession of GL. The sit further escalated as GL’s inbound
shipping and fishing vessels in proximity of that area were frequently harassed and
months of this year with an ill intention to capture Silk Island. The aggressive attitude of
PL and strong stance of GL brought these two countries to such strenuous sit where
ultimatum of war adds by PL. Taking advantage of the sit, GL’s eastern neighbor
YELLOW LAND (YL) has also increased pressure on us dmd the settlement of the long
pending border dispute. GL’s political and mil ally SL and BL have agreed through a high
level meeting to assist GL with political and moral sp only. Intl community is highly
concerned but unlikely to assist any of the side in case of any hostility, though effective
intl pressure is expected to be applied for a quick end to such hostilities. Considering the
sit, GL govt has issued war directive to its Armed Forces dictating not to undertake any
provocative act. However, considering the GLAF’s vulnerability to PLAF low lvl attk, the
COAS has decided to to analyze the options for pre-emption against the PLAF.
2. Ltd Cap against Low Lvl Attk. GREEN LAND is vulnerable to low lvl attk by
the PLAF due to our ltd def cap against low lvl attk.
3. Govt War Directive. War directive issued by GREEN LAND Govt restricts
GREEN LAND Armed Forces to take any provocative act against PINK LAND. As such,
offn move by any of the forces of GREEN LAND has to be well justified to convince the
Govt.
continuing its blockade In the Strait of Tonkin. As such, mil intervention could be the only
option for resolve.
5. Higher Command’s Intent. The COAS has instructed to analyze the options
for pre-emptions and bring out some firm proposals for counter air op against the PLAF..
AIM
6. To plan a pre-emptive attk against PLAF to reduce the offn power that may inflict
significant damage to GLAF.
FACTORS
Overriding Factors
a. GL Govt War Directives id the main threat emanating from PL whose aim is
likely to capr Silk Island.
b. Due to the existing belligerent att of YL and PL, all GL res are to be kept
cen loc.
c. GREEN LAND Armed Forces are not to undertake any provocative act to
prevent initiation of hostilities.
d. Due to the current Intl env, the war is not expected to last more than 2-3
wk.
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8. Deductions.
d. Pre-emptive attk would reqr justification and final approval from GL govt.
9. Intl Sp.
a. There will not be any intl assistance for both the side in case of hostility.
10. Deduction.
a. Plg has to be made for considering war reserve and present ORBAT.
b. 75% DA is reqr against PL HVTs while planning for the pre-emptive offn
act.
12. Deductions.
a. For accomplishment of msn with reqr DA, GLAF air assets have to be empl
in the pre-emption with extensive rate of op.
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Pervasive Factors
13. Wx. Gen wx is dry between March and May. Northern coastal area experiences
light to moderate rainfall after May due to Western disturbance. In south, the wx is
generally clear. Early morning fog and low visibility are common along the coast in the
south, which generally clears shortly after sunrise. The first lt, last lt and moon (second
qtr) setting times are 0600, 1830 and 0500 respectively.
12. Deductions.
a. Visual flg may be hampered in the early morning from first light to sunrise
due to fog and low vis. As such, air op may be conducted from sunrise at the
earliest.
c. For ni attk, moonlight may provide added advantage for tgt acquisition.
13. Topo. The area is gen flat and open without any meaningful cover in the north as
well as towards south. There are no significant natural features to degrade radar
performance.
14. Deduction.
a. Considering the overall terrain cond of PINK LAND, low lvl attk would be
poss.
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b. Low lvl tgt may be detected by radars from greater ranges providing good
defensive depth at low lvl.
c. East of GOMA and South of AVEBA are two most suitable AB as well as amph
ldg sites.
15. Day/Ni Op. Both GLAF and PLAF have ni attk cap platforms (AD and FGA role)
with blind del cap in few. The Moon phase is in second quarter which sets at 0500.
Other Factors
16. Assurance Level. 75% DA against PLAF HVTs while 65% or less against
17. Deduction. Wpn to tgt matching needs to be done meticulously to achieve the
desired DA.
19. Deduction. Air power would be emp to inflict max damage on offn str of
Op Environment
20. Air Ave of App (AA). More than 80% terr of PL is covered by LL radars.
Moreover, PL is mostly a plain land. As such, finding a suitable air AA is quite difficult
task for GLAF. However, GLAF can take the advtg of 2XC-130 ac equipped for EW role.
By providing stand-off Jamming those radars by C-130s ac GLAF air force would be able
to create two AAs, as shown in the Anx C.
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18. Recce. Pre-attk and post-attk recce may be considered. However, pre-attk
recce may terminate the possible element of surprise. Post-attk recce may provide actual
battle damage assessment (BDA).
20. ADGE. 3 x P-40M Static Radar of PLAF are the high lvl radar, additionally
acts as GCI stn also. ADOC is loc at RAJPUR. 3 out of 6 x P-15 LL Radar of PLAF
would be used as gap fillers and loc in GOMA, SHIBPUR and GARUL. Rest 3 radar are
kept as res in AVEBA and RAJPUR. Newly inducted 10 x LL PRS radar located in
BOGRA, KAMINA, MANONO, SHIBPUR and GARUL are cap to detect obj within 10,000
ft. Additionally, 2 x AD FF of PL Navy is also integrated with the AD network. The
probable RADAR locations of PLAF along with their detection range is att as Annex ‘A’ to
this apprc.
21. Deduction.
a. More than 80% of PL terr is under LL coverage.
b. HL coverage of PLAF can detect any incoming raid from GLAF maintaining
HH profile with a re-action time of min 22 min.
c. LL coverage gives appx wg time of 8 min.
d. Tac routing should be done to avoid detected by LL radars.
22. EA Cap. 2 x EW Cap C-130 ac of GLAF can determine PL’s EOB and
provide stand-off radar and comm jamming. Each of these ac can barrage jam a static
radar and spot jam another radar from a dstn of 150 nm op at an alt of 25,000 ft. It can
also noise jam the complete VHF/UHF freq. PLAF has only ELINT cap in two of its An-32
ac cap of determining GL’s EOB.
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23. Deduction.
a. GLAF C-130 EA ac may be UT for Barrage jamming and spot jamming
against static and mobile radar to force PLAF FI to resort to broadcast con.
b. UHF jamming may be used to reduce cap of SAM, AAA and AAM.
24. EMCON Policy. EMCON policy has to be estb along with the campaign plg.
25. Deduction. Eff EMCON policy would preserve the surprise and protect the
GLAF air asset from giving away the EOB to PLAF.
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a. Due to its prolonged svc life, total fleet of MiG-25 is suffering from fuel
leakage from its drop tanks. Under this circumstance, PLAF has decided to emp
all MiG-25 from KAMINA only without external drop tanks.
c. 02 X AN-32 ac are newly equipped with avionics for ELINT. Both are posn
at BOGRA.
d. In case of nec, 2 X CASA C-212 of PLN at BOGRA can augment the PLAF
op.
3. Deduction. PLAF has total of 198 combat ac. Out of those 72 ac (Mig-27 and
Jaguar Intl) can be emp in FGA role. Together they can carr a total of 144 ST GPBs.
Out of the 144 ST MiG-27 and Jaguar can carr 108 ST GPBs. This wt of attk can infict
significant damage if PLAF takes the initiative to carr out an offn against GLAF. PLAF
can emp 72 X MiG-21BIS for AD role. In case of pre-emptive strike pri to be given to
destroy as many FGA ac on grd as possible. They have not yet redepl their FI/FGA ac
in the FOBs. However, if they are depl in those FOBs then it would take min 36 hrs to
start full scale op from those bases. GLAF may emp HERON UAV for
recce/surveillance role in the bordering area outside the detection range of PLAF
radars to monitor their activities.
4. State of Readiness.
b. Scale of Effort. PLAF can sustain a svc rate of 75% for all types of ac
and can generate 03 sorties/day for FI/FGA/Recce ac and 02 sorties/day for tpt ac
for the duration of the conflict.
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c. RRR. RRR effort aval at each base is Cap of repairing 02 craters within
06 hrs and 04 craters within 12 hrs.
5. Deduction. PLAF maint a high degree of readiness. Their pilots and other pers
are well trained. They conduct routine trg and ex to keep their pers up-to-date with
new procedures. As such, if they seize the initiative to strike GLAF first, then they
would be able to inflict considerable damage to GLAF. As such, in no way they would
be allowed to have the initiative over GLAF.
7. While plg attk on those bases fol aspects has to be born in mind:
a. All RW except the FOBs and BOGRA have parallel taxi tracks suitable for
take-off and ldg.
d. Only AD F had been op from GARUL and SHIBPUR air fd other than
MOBs in the recent past.
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e. There is a naval base loc between BOGRA and MONGLA and PLN air
assets are op from BOGRA air fd.
8. Deduction. While plg to put the RW off for op, consideration to destroy the
parallel taxiway is to be given. Because, if taxiway are op then PLAF would be able to
cont op from those bases. From the aval data it is evident that putting off KAMINA RW
would take the max effort from GLAF perspective. On the other hand BOGRA MOB
has the max no of ac. However, it has no parallel taxiway. As such, consideration to
put off BOGRA RW may be given in the first ph of attk.
10. Moral & Efficiency. The moral of the pers of PLAF is high. As discussed, they
are very efficient in terms of trg and op. All of the ac is likely achieve 75%
serviceability rates. Their aircrew are have a sense of superiority due to their superior
no of FI/FGA ac inventory.
11. Deduction. Due to the moral & efficiency, beating PLAF would be a daunting
task for GLAF. However, with careful and synchronize attk GLAF would be able to
bring PLAF in their knees.
12. Trg. PLAF conducts routine trg and ex to keep their pers up-to-date. It is
reported in the INTREP that their trg activities has increased significantly in recent
times.
13. Deduction. Given the geo-political development in the region, this is clear
indication of PL’s provocation to GL.
14. En VPs.
a. FGA/Strike Ac and ASP. FGA ac of PLAF are vital assets for them to
succeed in any kind of hostilities with GLAF. The wt of attk of the FGA fleet of
PLAF is shown in AnxD. However, they are most vulnerable once they are on the
grd. Some of PLAF ac are kept in revetted ASP and HAS. While others are kept in
the open.
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e. Radars. PLAF has 3 X P-40M and 3XP-15 radars depl in a way to get
max coverage of the PL airspace. These are augmented by the 2 X PLN AD FF’s
radar loc SE of MONGLA and NE of PORT JOYPUR. They also have 10 X PRS
(5 unit) depl in five different bases. These PRS can detect any object within
10,000 ft. These radars start op from 0700 LT. PL maint 2 hrs interval after 04 hrs
op for these radars. By spot and barrage jamming with the help of 2 X C-130 EW
ac of GLAF the detection range of these radars can be reduced by 32%.
g. HAS/Fuel Storage etc. PLAF has a total of 48 X HAS loc in diff bases.
Therefore, they would be able to shelter at least 48 combat ac in those HAS which
they may use for retaliation against GLAF. Destruction of HAS would need
concentrated effort with precision munitions such as LGB or KAB-500KR bombs.
These HASs will vulnerable once the RWs and radars of respective air fd would
be inoperative.
j. ADOC. PLAF ADOC is loc in RAJPUR. However, the AD sys is not fully
automated.
1 12 KALANI
1 Eurofighter Typhoon MRCA
1 12 FATAKI
1 12 SOLAN
2 Mirage-V -
1 12 BENI
2 24 BENI
3 JF-17 Multirole
1 12 MAHAGI
1 12 FATAKI
1 12 SOLAN
1 12 KALANI
5 Yak -130 -
1 12 FATAKI
1 6 BOGORO
6 C-130 -
1 6 BENI
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½ 6 MAHAGI
7 HERON UAV -
½ 6 FATAKI
38. En Def.
c. Missiles. PLAF has a total of 6 sqns of SA-2 SAM and five sqns of
Crotale SAM depl in different MOBs and FOBs.
Reasonable Assumptions
40. GLAF is going to seize the initiative and carr out pre-emptive strike against the
PLAF
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41. The fol table would enumerate the comparative str of GLAF and PLAF:
42. Ser
Deduction. Item En-PLAF Own-GLAF Rmk
P L A F h a
24XEF v i n g s u p
24XRafale Eurofighter,
24XMirage-V
36XMiG-27 Rafale & JF-
1. OCAO 36XJF-17
36XJaguar (Intl) 17 are multi
24XYak-130
= 96 role
= 108
2. AD 72XMiG-21BIS 48XF-7BG
CbtSp:
a. 22XAN-32
a. Tpt a. 10XC-130
b. 2XAN-32
b. ECM b. 2XC-130
3. c. Nil *Out of 24XEF
c. UAV c. 12XHERON
d. 6XMiG-25
d. Recce d. 4XDornier
e. 2XC-212
e. Navy Sp
Incl GLN &
Total 200 184 PLN ac.
Excluding UAV
Multirole cbt ac. With the present str of ac PLAF is Cap of inflicting significant attrition to
GLAF as well as attk grd tgts.
Other Factors
43. Crew Fatigue. While plg the op, crew duty and crew rest has to be kept in the
mind. Duty roaster should be planned in such a way so those crews do not become over
stressed.
44. CSAR. As the strike is to carr out deep inside the en terr, ac are to be kept
res for CSAR in case any of the crew eject inside the en terr.
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45. Media Campaign. Media campaign would play a vital role in justifying the pre-
emptive strike that would be carr out in the PL. DAI may be tasked to look into this
aspect.
46. Secrecy. Secrecy to be given utmost priority for success of the pre-emptive
strike. To keep it secret only the handful of cmdrs is to be info of this plan beforehand.
47. Surprise and Deception. GLAF may not be able to hide the movt of the assets
within GL. However, the intention may be hidden from the en. Rapid depl in the FOBs is
to be avoided. Failing to do so would make it difficult to achieve the much needed
surprise.
a. Present Sit. From ‘Relative Str and Cap’ it is evident that PLAF is not only
numerically superior but also superior in terms of Cap. However, this can be
turned in GLAF’s favor by launching the pre-emptive strike.
b. Favourable Air Sit. During the onset, favorable air sit can be achieved by
attk the en during the sunrise when their PRS would not come into op. This would
also help GLAF as PLAF would be in the mid of a shift change. Sit can further be
brought into our favour by jamming the HL and LL radars by EW ac along the AA
just before the FGA ac would be breaking the horizon.
49. Deduction. Although in the beginning of the strike the en has the advtg,
however, a careful and coordinated pre-emptive strike would be able to inflict decisive
blow to the en strike potential. GLAF is likely to achieve the aim with much ease if the
conduct of the op goes as per the plan.
Summary of Deductions
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50. PLAF is likely to carr out offn act against GL to capture the Island Silk.
52. Radar coverage of PLAF can significantly be degraded to create at least two AA
for GLAF.
53. A properly executed pre-emptive strike would be able to neutralize PLAF’s offn
power within 24 hrs.
OWN COURSES
a. Advtg.
(3) Combat ac are most vulnerable on the grd. It is easier and safer to
destroy combat ac on the grd.
b. Disadvtg.
(1) GL will have to prove that the pre-emptive strike was carr out in act
of self def.
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(2) The OCAO has to be carr out with ut most secrecy. If the secrecy is
lost then there would be no surprise. In that case GLAF’s attrition is likely to
be much higher. This would be detrimental to the success of the OCAO.
a. Advtg.
b. Disadvtg.
(1) If ISR fails to detect an upcoming raid then the damage to GLAF
would be unbearable.
(2) GLAF would not be able to use capable ELINT C-130 platforms
rendering them virtually useless.
c. Comment. For achieving the political obj by GL govt, PLAF should go for
the pre-emptive strike.
56. Out of the two COAs, COA-I is the most suited for the GLAF. By carr out pre-
emptive strike against PLAF, GLAF would be able to neutralize them quickly with min
attrition.
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ASSESSMENT OF TASKS
a. Depl at the FOBs.The ROA of GLAF FGA ac does not permit them to GLy
HLLH profile from their respective MOBs. As such, FGA ac are to be depl to fwd
bases at a suitable time.However, complete secrecy is to be maint for this depl.
DteEngg, DteSupp and FOBs to be notified about the depl accordingly
OUTLINE PLAN
58. MSN. To neutralize the offn power of PLAF by waging a OCAO against PLAF.
59. EXEC.
a. C of O / Gen Outline.The OCAO would be carr out in ph. It would involve all
the units and sqns of GLAF.
c. Tgt to Wpn Match. LGBs would be used to destroy high value tgt. Such
as radars, ADOC, HAS etc. Anti-ship missiles would be used to destroy PLN FF.
Durandals would be used against the RWs and taxiways. CBUs would be used
against ac in the open. However, the indl sqns are at liberty to plan for tgt to wpn
match.
d. Elm of Force Package. The elm of force package incl C-130, F-7BG,
Euro fighter, Mirage-V, JF-17 and Yak-130 ac. Details of the of the force package
elm is shown in the MAAP.
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g. Air Variants. The air variants is essential for air op in case of any
unforeseen cond for which own best course of act is not materialized as planned.
60. SVC SP. 4 X Dorniers of GLN at SOLAN would augment the op of GLAF for
gathering int, relay comm and targeting over maritime domain in particular. GLN FFs
which are loc 80 km N of Port Morsby and another loc 60 km SW of Port Siru would
provide air surv around the area for GLAF. They are integrated with GLAF LL AD netwk.
Sign
XXX YYYYYY
Air Mshl
ACAS (O&T)
Tel No: ########
Anxs:
A. HL and LL radar coverage of PLAF before EA.
B. HL and LL radar coverage of PLAF after EA.
C. Ave of App (AA) to PL: GLAF
D. Cal of wt of attk of PLAF
E. Cal for wt of attk: GLAF – 1st wave.
F. Cal for wt of attk: GLAF – 2ndwave.
G. Cal for wt of attk: GLAF – 3rdwave.
H. MAAP: GLAF – 1st wave.
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Distribution: Copy No
PS to COAS
COAS’s Sectt 1
GLAF HQ
File 2
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