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Transportation Research Part E 44 (2008) 921–931

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Port traffic risks – A study of accidents in Hong Kong waters

Tsz Leung Yip *

Department of Logistics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong

Received 18 July 2006; received in revised form 10 September 2006; accepted 22 September 2006

Abstract

This paper investigates port traffic risk issues by discussing historic accidents in Hong Kong port. A total of 2012 mar-
ine accidents with 94 deaths were reported in Hong Kong waters in year 2001–2005, while 660,427 oceanic ships visited the
port. A negative binomial regression model is used to analyze the record of dataset. It is found that port traffic risks are of
certain pattern and collision accidents are the most popular incidents when port traffic is heavy. Passenger-type vessels
have higher potential for injuries during accidents. The findings have identified statistically significant factors for improve-
ments in managing port traffic risks.
 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Transport risk; Port safety; Marine traffic; Maritime transportation; Navigational accidents; Regression model

1. Introduction

There has been a strong focus on the relationship between marine accidents and vessel particulars, flag
states and crews. However, despite seaports being a key part of the facilities for water transportation, there
has, to date, been no comprehensive study on marine accidents within seaports. One reason for this is because
a port policy is often designed specifically to fit the local situations. Another reason is because the port state
jurisdiction over vessels is limited within the territorial sea but flag states have greater jurisdiction. Globaliza-
tion of trade has led to a rapid increase in vessel movements in many seaports. Most busy seaports, as this
trade continues to grow, will face many of the port risk issues observed in Hong Kong port today in the near
future. This paper investigates port traffic risk issues by discussing historic accidents in Hong Kong port,
which, for many years, was ranked as the world’s busiest port.
Hong Kong has almost 40,000 oceanic ships and further 200,000 coastal vessels arrivals every year. This is
just fraction of the daily marine activity within Hong Kong waters comprising barge, ferry, fast launch, rec-
reational and fishing boat activity. Many fairways in Hong Kong have more than 2000 vessel movements
every day and the continuing growth of the port ensures that constant vigilance is required to ensure safe oper-
ations. However, in the presence of such high level of vessel movements, the number of accidents reported is

*
Tel.: +852 2766 4631; fax: +852 2330 2704.
E-mail address: lgttly@polyu.edu.hk

1366-5545/$ - see front matter  2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.tre.2006.09.002
922 T.L. Yip / Transportation Research Part E 44 (2008) 921–931

not proportionally large and there were approximately 400 annual accidents reported to the local authority
during the period of analysis. Hong Kong, unlike most Asian ports, has maintained good data on accident
records, making it a good port to study in carrying out the analysis described here.
The paper first provides a review of the current literature. An analysis of the data from Hong Kong port
is then conducted by using a negative binomial regression model. In particular, a review of the relevant
accident statistics is carried out for the purposes of assessing marine traffic risks and their cumulative
effects.

2. Literature review

Marine traffic risk has been a core subject in maritime studies, because it is coupled with transport safety,
shipping efficiency, distribution reliability and loss prevention. Whilst effort has been devoted to analyses of
historic safety performance of vessels sailing under particular flags (Nielsen, 1999; Li, 1999; Li and Wonham,
1999; Alderton and Winchester, 2002) or to passenger ferry safety (Li and Wonham, 2001; Talley, 2002; Talley
et al., 2006), little research has been carried out for traffic systems including, for example, port regions. On the
contrary, there has been significantly more emphasis in researching environmental issues in ports (e.g., Yip
et al., 2002).
Trbojevic and Carr (2000) demonstrated the use of Formal Safety Assessment (FSA), introduced by the
International Maritime Organization, to improve safety in ports. By illustrating the use of FSA in analyzing
vessel groundings analysis, they discussed the stepwise approach of FSA for safety improvement of port oper-
ations. As a quantitative risk assessment, the FSA requires that levels of risk are quantified in a matrix of like-
lihood and consequence. Consequently, one of the critical steps in the safety assessment procedure is the
requirement to determine the likelihood (probability) of each accident. Colwill and Yip (2006) applied the idea
of FSA to determine the design of cross-estuary viaducts.
De and Ghosh (2003) evaluated the relationship between port performance and port traffic in the context of
India. They applied unit root tests, cointegration tests and Granger causality tests and found that a port with a
better performance (e.g., higher productivity) is likely to get higher traffic. Although the cause-and-effect rela-
tionship between port performance and port traffic is yet to be defined, De and Ghosh (2003) proved that the
traffic volume remains a good indicator of port performance.
Darbra and Casal (2004) conducted a study on 471 accidents occurring in seaports in 1941–2002. They
observed that 57% of the accidents occurred during transport (moving ships) and 44% of accidents in ports
were caused by an impact (i.e., collision). Although port operations are often considered dangerous, they
found that the likelihood of loss of life in a fatal accident in a port is lower than in a natural disaster (earth-
quakes, floods, etc.) Christou (1999) investigated 617 port accidents over the period 1934–1995 using f–N
curves for each transportation mode. Ronza et al. (2003) used 828 historical port accidents that have occurred
since the beginning of the 20th century to build an event tree model and then predict accident frequency.
Existing port accident studies in the literature are based upon the use of single variable models by calcu-
lating the components distribution of variables (Christou, 1999; Ronza et al., 2003; Darbra and Casal,
2004) and do not test their statistical significance. However, because of the complexity of extensive port activ-
ities, any database containing fewer than 1000 records might not be large enough to identify any statistically
significant variables. It is understood that accidents result from a number of factors and cannot normally be
assessed on the basis of a single factor. More robust analyses, such as regression, have not yet been applied to
the study of port traffic accidents.
In different contexts of transportation safety, some negative binomial and Poisson regression models have
been developed to study traffic safety and predict accident frequency. Loeb et al. (1994) provided a detailed
review of transport accident studies and associated theories. Talley (2002) reviewed determinants of the num-
ber of injuries, deceased and missing occupants and the damage cost of maritime safety and accidents. Clarke
and Loeb (2005) examined train fatalities and found that alcohol consumption appeared to be a significant
contributor to fatalities. Loeb and Clarke (2007) studied truck accidents and identified alcohol consumption,
unemployment rate and railroad activity as significant factors in truck accidents. Talley et al. (2006) investi-
gated determinants of the severity of passenger vessel accidents and concluded that human mistakes result in a
 T.L. Yip / Transportation Research Part E 44 (2008) 921–931 923

higher number of injuries and fatalities in passenger vessel accidents than environmental and vessel related
causes.
By reviewing more than 2000 accidents in Hong Kong port, which has been ranked the busiest port in the
world in 1992–2004, this paper aims to illustrate the key characteristics of port risk profile for marine traffic
management of high traffic volumes. Unlike previous port accident studies in the literature, a more robust
approach – regression analysis – is applied to analyze port accidents in which multiple variables may play
a part.

3. Background and data

3.1. Characteristics of Hong Kong port

Hong Kong is located at the southern-most tip of China. The port of Hong Kong was the world’s busiest
container port between 1992 and 2004. Of a total of 231,810 ships calling at Hong Kong in 2005, 39,140 ship
visits were made by ocean-going vessels. The total cargo throughput in 2005 was 230 million tones or 22.6
million Twenty Foot Equivalent Units (TEU). By 2005 Hong Kong had 24 container terminal berths (Marine
Department, 2006).
Hong Kong’s history and development as a port is a direct consequence of it possessing a fine natural har-
bor. Hong Kong’s geography complements the predominant easterly, and to a lesser degree northerly, direc-
tion of extreme winds to provide sheltered waters within the harbor. The East Lamma Channel, a deep
approach to the harbor, contributes to the refraction of ocean swells away from the Kellett Bank area, leading
to the formation of a large, relatively sheltered water space between Hong Kong Island and the Kowloon Pen-
insular. Hong Kong’s marine environment is associated with a number of key characteristics:

• High traffic volumes;

• Wide variation in vessel size and types;
• High portions of speed craft and ferries;
• Close proximity of marine facilities within a small geographic area;
• A high proportion of coastal craft;
• Active mid-steam operations for cargo movements;
• Multiple water approaches to the port;
• Lots of single point moorings (e.g., government mooring buoys);
• Good marine traffic control of ocean-going vessel activity, and
• A high level of reporting of marine accidents.

While a number of these characteristics are commonly found in Asian ports, Hong Kong statistics show a
high quality of reporting and availability of data.

3.2. Reported accident data

The Hong Kong Marine Department has historically conducted investigations to establish the causes and
circumstances under which marine accidents have occurred and has identified improvement measures which
can be implemented to avoid recurrence. They have set up the database of marine accidents.
When reviewing any data it is necessary to identify the nature of the data and manner of collection.
Data collated for marine traffic risks in Hong Kong between 2001 and 2005 illustrates the key characteris-
tics of the local marine risk profile and offers details of local marine accidents. The Hong Kong Marine
Department classified marine accidents as ‘‘Collision’’, ‘‘Contact’’, ‘‘Stranding/grounding’’, ‘‘Foundering/
sinking’’, ‘‘Fire/explosion’’, ‘‘Capsized/list’’, ‘‘Machinery failure’’, ‘‘Damage to equipment’’, ‘‘Missing ves-
sel’’, ‘‘Structural failure’’, ‘‘Heavy weather’’, and ‘‘Others’’. Ship accidents are usually classified according
to the so-called ‘‘first event’’ (e.g., a ship is materially damaged by weather, a ship grounds, etc.) rather than
causes (e.g., human errors, poor maintenance), e.g., see Alderton (2004, p. 224) and Kristiansen (2005,
p. 22).
924 T.L. Yip / Transportation Research Part E 44 (2008) 921–931

3.3. Accident causalities

Table 1 illustrates the distribution of accident types. It can be seen that almost 67% of all accidents recorded
in 2001–2005 were impacts: ‘‘Collision’’ and ‘‘Contact’’, with ‘‘Stranding/Grounding’’ accounting for approx-
imately 9%. ‘‘Foundering/Sinking’’ (8%) and ‘‘Fire/Explosion’’ (7%) are significant hazards and formed over
half of the remaining accidents.
Table 2 suggests that over half of accidents occur in open waters, most probably at normal operating
speeds, while the rest accidents occur within anchorages, typhoon shelters and port facilities, most probably
at slow speed.
Table 3 illustrates the collision distribution (for those collisions between vessel types that make up more
than 1% of all collisions) between the principal vessel classes as identified in the accident record. It is apparent
that most collision accidents occur between cargo vessels (‘‘Cargo Ship’’ and ‘‘Barge’’).
Data for the average and annual hourly distribution of accidents is presented in Fig. 1. Two peak periods
for marine accidents can be identified at around 10:00–11:00 and 15:00–16:00. It is also observed that the pat-
terns of hourly distribution of accidents are consistent over the period of five years, implying that the port
traffic risk is strongly related to the marine traffic system, rather than to individual vessels.

Table 1
Average distribution of accident types
Accident types Percentage (%)
Collision 54
Contact 12
Stranding/grounding 9
Foundering/sinking 8
Fire/explosion 7
Capsized/list 2
Machinery failure 2
Damage to equipment 1
Heavy weather damage 0.2
Structural failure 0.1
Missing vessel 0.0
Others (e.g., flooding) 4

Table 2
Location of reported accidents
Channels (%) Fairways (%) Anchorages Typhoon shelters (%) Other port facilities (%) Open waterspaces (%)
(%)
All accidents 3 6 12 10 10 59
Collisions 3 10 20 9 10 48

Table 3
Percentage distribution of collisions
Cargo ship HSC-passenger Barge Tug Fishing vessel Government vessel Pleasure vessel
Cargo ship 43.7% 14.1% 9.7% 3.7%
HSC-passenger 1.2%
Barge 1.5% 5.7%
Tug
Fishing vessel 2.3% 1.3%
Government vessel
Pleasure vessel 3.5%
Note: Only >1% is shown.
 T.L. Yip / Transportation Research Part E 44 (2008) 921–931 925

8
Average

% of total report accidents

7
2001-2005
6

0
0-1
1-2
2-3
3-4
4-5
5-6
6-7
7-8
8-9
9-10
10-11
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
Starting hours

Fig. 1. Hourly distribution of accidents.

4. Discussion

4.1. Present risk management system

The Hong Kong Marine Department is responsible for administering Hong Kong Port. Its principal func-
tion is to ensure safe operation of the port and all Hong Kong waters as well as regulatory functions in sup-
port of Hong Kong’s role as a maritime centre. The Department also administers the Hong Kong Shipping
Register. The register’s gross tonnage exceeded 29 million tones at the end of year 2005, making it one of
the world’s top 10 shipping registers (Marine Department, 2006).
In order to obtain advice from users and operators of port facilities, the Department liaises closely with
shipping and commercial organizations through a number of advisory committees that include the Shipping
Consultative Committee, the Port Operations Committee, the Pilotage Advisory Committee and the Provi-
sional Local Vessel Advisory Committee.
However, it is observed that the traditional hardware of navigation aids – lights, buoys, channel markers
and the like – is being supplemented and gradually superseded by a new generation of information-based nav-
igation aids – the Vessel Traffic System (VTS), the Automatic Identification System (AIS), the Global Posi-
tioning System (GPS), electronic charts, satellite tracking and others. The authority is embracing these
changes and seeking ways for the maritime community to attain the maximum benefit from information
technology.
The present risk level can be quantified by use of an accumulated frequency-number of deaths graph (f–N
chart), which relates the number of deaths (N) in a particular accident with at lease one fatality to the relative
probability that there should be this number of deaths. This is described by Eq. (1):
Pmax
P ðfatalityÞ
P ðx P N jN P 1Þ ¼ fN ¼ PNmax ð1Þ
1 P ðfatalityÞ

where N is the expected number of deaths and fN is the probability that the number of deaths resulting from an
accident will be more than N. There are two general methods for constructing f–N chart: (1) from empirical
frequency data on past accidents, and (2) from a probability model to estimate the frequencies. The former
method has been adopted here, as shown in Christou (1999) and Darbra and Casal (2004). The values ob-
tained with the reported accidents are illustrated in Fig. 2. The data approximates to a straight line
(R2 = 0.90) with a gradient of 1.36, which indicates that the probability of an accident with 10 or more
deaths is 1/13 of that for an accident with one or more deaths. Darbra and Casal (2004) reported the gradient
of f–N graph of all seaports is 0.7 and therefore the Hong Kong port is approximately twice as safe as an
‘average’ port.
926 T.L. Yip / Transportation Research Part E 44 (2008) 921–931

Probability p(X > N | N > 0)

y = -1.36x

0.1

0.01
1 10
Number of Deaths (N)

Fig. 2. Accumulated probability of an accident with N deaths.

4.2. Negative binomial regression modeling

The model is presented to explain port accident injuries and fatalities, both of which depend on five explan-
atory factors: ships’ port of registry, type of vessel, type of accident, type of waterway and whether the ships
are underway. Its general form is:
Port accidentðInjuries; FatalitiesÞ
¼ f ðPort of registry; Type of vessel; Type of accident; Type of waterway; UnderwayÞ ð2Þ
Each explanatory factor can be further measured by explanatory variables (see Table 4). The port of registry
includes Hong Kong International Registry (HONGKONG), Hong Kong Local License (LOCALLI), China
Registry (CHINA) and other Registries (FOREIGN). The types of vessel, types of accident and types of
waterway follow the definitions of Hong Kong Marine Department. The number of underway vessels prior
to the accident can be classified as ‘‘more than one vessels underway’’ (BothUnderway = 1), ‘‘only one vessels
underway’’ (OneUnderway = 1) and ‘‘no vessel underway’’ (NoUnderway = 1).
It is further assumed that the port accident count data can be approximated well by a negative binomial
process; the simultaneity of the accident injuries and fatalities is modeled by using simultaneous model esti-
mation techniques. The advantage of use of a negative binomial model is that there is no restriction on the
ratio of the mean to the variance of data (Greene, 2003). The negative binomial model has the expression:
y
exp½kj expðeÞðkj Þ j
Prob½Y ¼ y j je ¼ ; y j ¼ 0; 1; 2; . . . ð3Þ
yj!
kj ¼ expðxj b þ ej Þ for the jth observation; ð4Þ
where kj is the expected mean, b is a vector of estimable parameters, xj is the explanatory variables, and exp(ej)
is a gamma-distributed error term with mean 1.0 and variance a2. The addition of this term allows the variance
to differ from the mean:
Var½y j  ¼ E½y j f1 þ aE½y j g ¼ E½y j  þ aE½y j 2 ð5Þ
The variable a, or alpha, is the dispersion parameter. If a is equal to zero, the model reduces to a Poisson
regression model. The LIMDEP v8.0 software, developed by Greene (2003), was used to estimate simulta-
neous negative binomial models for the injury and fatality data.
The complete results of the fatal and injury models estimated simultaneously are shown in Table 5. The
negative binomial regression model was found to be preferable to the Poisson model, as indicated by the sig-
nificance of the overdispersion parameter (alpha), p-value <0.05. The goodness of fit for the binary model
seems reasonable, and the Chi-square statistics for the injury and fatality estimates are 637.29 and 219.12,
respectively, exceeding the 57.34 critical value necessary for significance at the 0.01 level for 35 degrees of
freedom.
The injury estimate shows that among the Port of Registry, Hongkong and Foreign are significant. Their
negative signs suggest that injury rates are lower in Hong Kong and International Registries, possibly reflect-
 T.L. Yip / Transportation Research Part E 44 (2008) 921–931 927

Table 4
Variable definition and descriptive statistics
Variables Measurements Mean (standard deviation) Range
Dependent variables
1 FATAL Number of deaths in an accident 0.05 (0.67) 0–25
2 INJURY Number of injuries in an accident 0.20 (2.52) 0–102

Explanatory variables
Port of registry (Number of ships)
1 HONGKONG Hong Kong Registry 0.11 (0.32) 0–2
2 LOCALLI Hong Kong Local License 0.82 (0.79) 0–7
3 CHINA China Registry 0.62 (0.80) 0–3
4 FOREIGN Foreign Country 0.10 (0.33) 0–2
Type of vessel(1)
1 BULK Bulk carrier 0.03 (0.17) 0–1
2 CARGO Cargo ship 0.47 (0.50) 0–1
3 TANKER Tanker 0.03 (0.16) 0–1
4 PASSENGER High speed craft/passenger ship 0.10 (0.30) 0–1
5 BARGE Barge 0.19 (0.39) 0–1
6 WARSHIP Warship 0.00 (0.02) 0–1
7 TUG Tug 0.11 (0.31) 0–1
8 FISHVSL Fishing vessel 0.16 (0.37) 0–1
9 GOVERNMT Government vessel 0.09 (0.29) 0–1
10 SAMPAN Motor sampan 0.02 (0.14) 0–1
11 PLEASURE Pleasure vessel 0.10 (0.30) 0–1
12 OTHERVSL Miscellaneous vessels 0.04 (0.19) 0–1
Type of accident(1)
1 COLLISION Collision 0.54 (0.50) 0–1
2 GROUNDING Stranding/grounding 0.09 (0.29) 0–1
3 FOUNDERING Foundering/sinking 0.08 (0.27) 0–1
4 FIREEXPLO Fire/explosion 0.07 (0.26) 0–1
5 MISSING Missing vessel 0.00 (0.02) 0–1
6 CAPSIZED Capsized/list 0.02 (0.15) 0–1
7 STRUCFAIL Structural failure 0.00 (0.03) 0–1
8 MACHIFAIL Machinery failure 0.02 (0.13) 0–1
9 WEATHER Heavy weather damage 0.00 (0.04) 0–1
10 CONTACT Contact 0.12 (0.33) 0–1
11 EQUIPMENT Damage to equipment 0.01 (0.09) 0–1
12 OTHERACCID Others (e.g. flooding) 0.04 (0.20) 0–1
Type of waterway(1)
1 CHANNEL Within channel 0.03 (0.18) 0–1
2 FAIRWAY Within fairway 0.06 (0.24) 0–1
3 ANCHORAGE Within anchorage 0.12 (0.33) 0–1
4 SHELTER Within typhoon shelter 0.10 (0.30) 0–1
5 FACILITIES Within other port facilities 0.10 (0.29) 0–1
Underway(1)
1 BothUnderway More than one vessel are underway 0.18 (0.39) 0–1
2 OneUnderway Only one vessel is underway 0.12 (0.33) 0–1
3 NoUnderway No vessel is underway 0.04 (0.20) 0–1
Note: (1) – 1 if correct, 0 otherwise.

ing a greater level of safety training received. Considering vessel types, high speed passenger ships (PASSEN-
GER), motor sampan (SAMPAN) and pleasure vessels (PLEASURE) usually have more passengers on board
and thus these vessel types are associated with larger positive coefficients b. Other significant Types of Vessels
are cargo ships (CARGO), government vessels (GOVERNMT), miscellaneous vessels (OTHERVSL), which
are used to carry cargoes and facilities. When types of waterway are considered in the analysis, human beings
928 T.L. Yip / Transportation Research Part E 44 (2008) 921–931

Table 5
Accident fatalities and injuries: negative binomial regression estimates
Variables Injury coefficient (t-statistic) Fatality coefficient (t-statistic)
Port of registry
1 HONGKONG 1.91 (3.51)*** 1.05 (0.66)
2 LOCALLI 0.38 (1.37) 0.04 (0.03)
3 CHINA 0.63 (1.81)** 1.24 (0.93)
4 FOREIGN 1.49 (2.35)*** 0.03 (0.02)

Type of vessel
1 BULK 1.55 (1.49) 0.34 (0.30)
2 CARGO 1.98 (4.04)*** 0.88 (0.96)
3 TANKER 0.07 (0.05) 32.39 (0.17)
4 PASSENGER 4.11 (8.36)*** 3.81 (1.44)
5 BARGE 0.64 (1.30) 31.48 (0.36)
6 WARSHIP 27.12 (0.03) 1.20 (0.00)
7 TUG 0.91 (1.72)** 30.88 (0.29)
8 FISHVSL 1.98 (3.99)*** 1.69 (1.75)**
9 GOVERNMT 1.21 (2.26)*** 1.35 (0.90)
10 SAMPAN 3.05 (4.06)*** 1.69 (1.33)
11 PLEASURE 2.33 (4.46)*** 0.27 (0.21)
12 OTHERVSL 1.90 (2.89)*** 1.81 (1.70)**

Type of accident
1 COLLISION 0.48 (0.79) 0.23 (0.15)
2 GROUNDING 0.01 (0.13) 0.00 (0.16)
3 FIREEXPLO 1.79 (3.73)*** 1.07 (1.36)
4 MISSING 28.18 (0.03) 34.23 (0.03)
5 CAPSIZED 2.37 (3.60)*** 0.92 (0.89)
6 STRUCFAIL 5.3 (2.52)*** 30.88 (0.03)
7 MACHIFAIL 0.37 (0.44) 32.24 (0.14)
8 WEATHER 28.02 (0.06) 33.22 (0.05)
9 CONTACT 1.15 (2.41)*** 1.58 (1.19)
10 EQUIPMENT 26.94 (0.12) 32.84 (0.10)
11 OTHERACCID 0.34 (0.48) 33.49 (0.23)

Type of waterway
1 CHANNEL 0.13 (0.19) 32.88 (0.19)
2 FAIRWAY 0.59 (1.32) 1.30 (0.90)
3 ANCHORAGE 0.84 (1.55) 0.47 (0.41)
4 SHELTER 1.61 (2.93)*** 33.95 (0.35)
5 FACILITIES 0.28 (0.68) 31.77 (0.32)

Underway
1 BothUnderway 1.44 (3.46)*** 0.21 (0.24)
2 OneUnderway 0.84 (1.08) 31.71 (0.34)
3 NoUnderway 1.57 (2.25)** 31.77 (0.21)
Constant 4.6 (7.58)*** 3.13 (2.60)***
Alpha 8.05 (4.66)*** 18.3 (3.58)***
Number of observations 2,012 2,012
v2 statistic 637.29 291.12
** marginally significant with p-value < 0.10.
*** statistically significant with p-value < 0.05.

are less likely to be injured within typhoon shelters (SHELTER). The positive and significant coefficients of
BothUnderway and NoUnderway suggest that injuries are more likely resulted when all the ships involved
were moving or idle, which in turn leads to impact type and non-impact type accidents, respectively.
From the fatality estimate, only FISHVSL (fishing vessels) and OTHERVSL (miscellaneous vessels) are
significant. Both types of vessels have positive coefficients, suggesting that fatalities are expected to be greater
 T.L. Yip / Transportation Research Part E 44 (2008) 921–931 929

for these types of vessels. This is likely to be because Hong Kong’s fishing vessels are often made of wood and
are therefore structurally weak, leading to greater likelihood of fatalities in the event of an accident.

4.3. Marginal effects

The marginal effects of negative binomial regression coefficients are calculated (Greene, 2003) and pre-
sented in Table 6. Only the marginal effects of significant variables will be discussed in the following
paragraphs.

Table 6
Estimated negative binomial regression marginal effects
Variables Injury coefficient Fatality coefficient
Port of registry
1 HONGKONG 1.21 0.06
2 LOCALLI 0.24 0.00
3 CHINA 0.40 0.07
4 FOREIGN 0.94 0.00

Type of vessel
1 BULK 0.98 0.02
2 CARGO 1.26 0.05
3 TANKER 0.04 1.72
4 PASSENGER 2.61 0.20
5 BARGE 0.40 1.67
6 WARSHIP 17.20 0.06
7 TUG 0.57 1.64
8 FISHVSL 1.25 0.09
9 GOVERNMT 0.77 0.07
10 SAMPAM 1.93 0.09
11 PLEASURE 1.48 0.01
12 OTHERVSL 1.21 0.10

Type of accident
1 COLLISION 0.30 0.01
2 GROUNDING 0.00 0.00
3 FIREEXPLO 1.14 0.06
4 MISSING 17.87 1.81
5 CAPSIZED 1.50 0.05
6 STRUCFAIL 3.36 1.64
7 MACHIFAIL 0.24 1.71
8 WEATHER 17.77 1.76
9 CONTACT 0.73 0.08
10 EQUIPMENT 17.09 1.74
11 OTHERACCID 0.22 1.77

Type of waterway
1 CHANNEL 0.08 1.74
2 FAIRWAY 0.38 0.07
3 ANCHORAGE 0.53 0.02
4 SHELTER 1.02 1.80
5 FACILITIES 0.18 1.68

Underway
1 BothUnderway 0.91 0.01
2 OneUnderway 0.53 1.68
3 NoUnderway 0.99 1.68
Constant 2.92 0.17
930 T.L. Yip / Transportation Research Part E 44 (2008) 921–931

The injury marginal effects indicate that 2.61, 1.93 and 1.48 injuries are expected for each high speed pas-
senger ship (PASSENGER), sampan (SAMPAN) and pleasure vessel (PLEASURE) accident, respectively. It
is expected from the injury marginal effects that accidents involving cargo ships (CARGO), fishing vessels
(FISHVSL) and miscellaneous vessels (OTHERVSL) will result in 1.26, 1.25 and 1.21 injuries, respectively.
A further, 0.77 injury is expected for each government vessel accident (GOVERNMT). The marginal effects
of injury model indicates that the highest rate of injuries (3.36) is expected for structural failures (STRUC-
TURE), while 1.14, 1.50 and 0.73 injuries are expected for fire/explosion (FIRE), capsized/list (CAPSIZED)
and contact (CONTACT) accidents.
The fatality marginal effects indicate that 0.09 and 0.10 fatalities are expected for fishing vessel (FISHVSL)
and miscellaneous vessels (OTHERVSL) accidents.

5. Conclusions and further research

This study provides valuable insights into the current status of port traffic risks in the literature. Marine
traffic management currently puts most of its emphasis on controlling traffic. This study provides statistically
significant evidence that the port of registration, the vessel type and the accident type are critical to the number
of injuries and fatalities. From a managerial perspective, the findings have identified factors that can contrib-
ute to reducing the severity level of port accidents.
The results demonstrate that marine collisions account for over two-thirds of all accidents within Hong
Kong waters. About 5% and 20% of these accidents cause fatalities and injuries, respectively. The local risk
environment of Hong Kong waters compares favorably with international norms. Accidents involving passen-
ger-type vessels are more likely to result in injuries, whereas accidents in typhoon shelters have a lower prob-
ability of causing injuries.
Traffic level is one of the main indicators for improvements in the efficiency and service of ports (De and
Ghosh, 2003). As the container port market continues to emphasize faster and more reliable handling in ports
and terminals, there is a need for Hong Kong and other busy ports to continue to deploy better and more
effective traffic control systems to match the increasing volume of vessel and cargo movements. The major
obstacle to the improvement of port traffic control is the lack of a comprehensive database of port accidents.
Nevertheless, both the port authority and the private sector are making efforts to resolve the issue by devel-
oping value-added information platforms, such as the Global Integrated Shipping Information System
(GISIS).
The marginal effects of the estimated negative binomial regression analysis indicate that accidents with pas-
senger type ships, including high speed ferries, sampans and pleasure vessels, result in a relatively high number
of injuries, with each port accident involving passenger ships expected to result in more than one injury. The
results suggest that policy strategies should therefore be provided for passenger ships in order to strengthen
traffic safety.
Further research is needed to compare port traffic risks across the world and to explore the impact of var-
ious traffic control philosophies. This study should be extended to consider the evolution of the adoption of
information technology in port traffic control and how the adoption is affecting the traffic risks. This is impor-
tant because any future framework of port traffic management should result from reducing port accidents and
consequently enhancing efficiency.

Acknowledgement

The author thanks the Marine Department for granting permission to access the data. The research was
supported by Grant 1-BB09 from the Public Policy Research Institute (PPRI) of the Hong Kong Polytechnic
University. The author is grateful to Dr. Alison Smart at Manchester Business School for her comments on
earlier versions of this paper. The author further thanks Dr. Wayne K. Talley, Editor-in-Chief, and anony-
mous referee for helpful suggestions.
 T.L. Yip / Transportation Research Part E 44 (2008) 921–931 931

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